Let's be frank. If the Administration and Congress do not agree to raise the debt ceiling, sometime within the next two weeks, and probably this week, the nation, followed probably by the world, will go into a Depression.
Truly, this is absurd.
Talks between Kevin McCarthy and President Biden resume today.
It's an open question of to what extent McCarthy can even carry through with anything he agrees to, beholding as he is to the populist right. The Administration, for its part, has approached this looming deadline with some lack of urgency.
Should the country go over this cliff, that's what will be remembered about both of these individuals.
The State of Wyoming and University of Wyoming are partnering with Black Tooth Brewery for the issuance of Wyoming Golden Ale. The beer launches on May 27. Labels are brown and gold and feature the Wyoming bucking horse on them.
Yesterday's meeting between Biden and McCarthy late in the day was, "productive". It didn't result in a deal, however. The parties claim an outline of a prospective deal is there.
No deal today.
The inevitable is now happening in that Kevin McCarthy, having taken the nation right to the brink, at least by half, cannot close a deal as House members to his right will not agree to yield. The Freedom Caucus, which represents the most extreme populist Republicans, has put out the following, which appears on Twitter, and lots of its naive acolytes are parroting the lines.
Republicans must #HoldTheLine on the debt ceiling to bring spending back to reality and restore fiscal sanity in DC.
We spend $100+ billion more than federal tax revenues EVERY MONTH.
Washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.
The irony of many of the followers is that if the nation goes into default, they are amongst the class that will be financially destroyed. It will be the middle class and lower middle class that will go almost certainly into poverty. The rich nearly always have vehicles to avoid destruction, and the upper middle class will survive. The other two demographics, however, from with the Freedom Caucus and Trumpites draw their support, will not. A further irony will be that they'll soon be seeking government relief.
Up until today, I'd have guessed that there was about a 60% chance that a deal would be reached this week, avoiding default. My present guess is that there is a 60% chance that this will not occur, and that this will be the last major holiday Americans will enjoy before the nation goes into a default and enters the worst national recession since the Great Depression. None of the Congressional power brokers or major Presidential candidates presently announced will survive it politically.
I hope I'm wrong.
May 24, cont:
Every Democrat has endorsed a discharge petition. In order to pass, it would require five Republicans to join them.
That isn't much, but it may be too many.
May 27, 2023
Janet Yellen now puts the default date on June 5, a move which will only fuel the fire as populists will proclaim the dates are all phony.
May 28, 2023
And a budget deal was reached and, presumably, disaster adverted.
This presuming the House and Senate agree with it, which isn't a safe assumption.
Some of the provisions.
The debt limit is suspended through 2025. My prediction is that if the Democrats take the legislative branch while also retaining the executive, they'll simply do away with it entirely. Frankly, maybe the GOP will under the same circumstances.
Non-discretionary spending, where the hard work really is, will be flat next year and increased by just 1% in 2025.
Defense spending increases next year by 3.3%, below the current rate of inflation.
There will be phased in requirements for work for recipients of the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program up to age 54, rather than the current age 49, with a set of exceptions.
Energy permitting will be sped up, even though there's somewhat of a glut of them now.
May 30, 2023
Congressman Hageman is amongst the far right wing Republicans that will not support the budget deal that has been arrived upon.
Failure to raise the debt ceiling by June 5 will destroy the economy and cause an economic depression. This seems evident, and it is hard to grasp how anyone could support that result.
Kevin McCarthy seems likely to lose his position as Speaker of the House over the matter.
May 31, 2023
The House Rules Committee cleared the budget deal out on to the House floor, but only by a single vote, and only because budget hawk Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky voted for it, rather than allow the country to go into a depression. Six other far right Republicans were fiscally irresponsible and voted no, voting their ideology and ignorance rather than the facts.
The deal is likely to pass in the House, where the overwhelming majority of Democrats will be for it and probably most of the Republicans.
Having said that, all four Democrats on the Rules Committee voted no, which is a bad sign, along with Reps. Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Chip Roy of Texas. So a real possibility exist that it will not Pass the House and its questionable what will happen when it reaches the Senate.
Yesterday, the House of Representatives voted against destroying the global economy and voted to approve
Rep. Mark Alford of Missouri
Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona
Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina
Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois
Rep. Josh Brecheen of Oklahoma
Rep. Vern Buchanan of Florida
Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado
Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee
Rep. Eric Burlison of Missouri
Rep. Kat Cammack of Florida
Rep. Buddy Carter of Texas
Rep. Ben Cline of Virginia
Rep. Michael Cloud of Texas
Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia
Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia
Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona
Rep. Scott DesJarlais of Tennessee
Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida
Rep. Pat Fallon of Texas
Rep. Brad Finstad of Minnesota
Rep. Michelle Fischbach of Minnesota
Rep. Russell Fry of South Carolina
Rep. Mark Fulcher of Idaho
Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida
Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas
Rep. Bob Good of Virginia
Rep. Lance Gooden of Texas
Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona
Rep. Morgan Griffith of Virginia
Rep. Michael Guest of Mississippi
Rep. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming
Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland
Rep. Diana Harshbarger of Tennessee
Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma
Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana
Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas
Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas
Rep. Darin LaHood of Illinois
Rep. Debbie Lesko or Arizona
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida
Rep. Morgan Luttrell of Texas
Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina
Rep. Tracey Mann of Kansas
Rep. Brian Mast of Florida
Rep. Rich McCormick of Georgia
Rep. Mary Miller of Illinois
Rep. Cory Mills of Florida
Rep. Alex Mooney of West Virginia
Rep. Barry Moore of Alabama
Rep. Nathaniel Moran of Texas
Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina
Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee
Rep. Gary Palmer of Alabama
Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania
Rep. Bill Posey of Florida
Rep. John Rose of Tennessee
Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana
Rep. Chip Roy of Texas
Rep. George Santos of New York
Rep. Keith Self of Texas
Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas
Rep. Vicotira Spartz of Indiana
Rep. Greg Steube of Florida
Rep. Dale Strong of Alabama
Rep. Tom Tiffany of Wisconsin
Rep. William Timmons of South Carolina
Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey
Rep. Beth Van Duyne of Texas
Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida
Rep. Randy Weber of Texas
Rep. Ryan Zinke of Montana
No mistake should be made about the no votes. The no votes were an outright vote to demolish the economy in the name of a radical concept of economy purity, whether the Congressman understands that or not. Some probably do, and some probably only voted no as they knew the item would pass, thereby giving them the ability to claim that they were voting to balance the budget back home, a claim that depends on voter ignorance on how the budget and economy works, a cynical reliance that has so far proved to be well-placed. The budget cannot be balanced in any way, shape, or form without raising taxes, or deeply cutting into Social Security and its related programs. Taxes need to be raised, and the current out of control deficits the country is running date back to a misbegotten concept in the Reagan era that by lowering taxes the government could be starved on the vine.
The matter is now in the Senate, where saving the economy will require quick action in a body that's dominated by the elderly. Moreover, on the Senate side, Gene Shepherd's maxim that fanatics meet each other in their fanaticism is proving true as the opponents of the bill include the members of the far left, and the far right, neither of which seem to grasp how budgets actually work.
June 1, cont.
Speaker of the House McCarthy stated today:
The president walled off all the others. The majority driver of the budget is mandatory spending. It’s Medicare, Social Security, interest on the debt.
That's 100% correct. As noted in a thread put up just today:
- 63% of the Federal Budget is non-discretionary. That money must be spent, so you can't touch that. No cuts. This category is Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other mandatory programs.
- 30% is discretionary spending. You can cut that.
- 14% of the budget is on Defense. That's discretionary, so you can cut that. In FY 2023 the overall Defense was about $777 Billion.
- 16% of the budget it non defense discretionary, you can cut that. This is funding for every government program and office that isn't Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, or some other mandatory program, and isn't defense.
- The balance, about 7%, is net interest. You pretty much have to spend that.
- The total outlays, i.e., expenditures, going into the process, amount to $5.9 Trillion.
- The total revenues are $4.9 Trillion.
- A $1 Trillion deficit, therefore, exists going into the process.
Regarding revenues, we have this.
- 32% of all U.S. Revenue comes through payroll taxes.
- 53% of all U.S. Revenue comes from income taxes.
- 9% of all U.S. Revenue comes from corporate taxes.
- 6% of all U.S. Revenue comes from other sources, such as fees, specialized taxes, tariffs, and gift and estate taxes.
McCarthy has indicated a bipartisan committee is being formed to look at non-discretionary spending.
A couple of things.
He may need to say these things now, in order to keep his job as speaker, but he may well be damaging the ability to get the deal through the Senate, as the far left will definitely react.
Taxes are the solution to a lot of this.
June 2, 2023
The City of Casper has voted to approve a $50,000 supplement to the subsidies already provided to local passenger air carriers. This subsidizes solely the Casper to Salt Lake City flight. The subsidy will pay for a larger airplane for the flight, through the summer.
If SkyWest, the Delta provider, does not find that this makes the run more popular, it'll likely be cut, and air travel to Salt Lake will end.
In an example of phenomenal speed, the U.S. Senate acted to save the global economy, and against the narrow mindedness of the far right and far left, and pass the budget compromise bill.
A depression has thugs been avoided.
The vote was 63 to 36.
Voting against the bill, on the Democratic side, were:
Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.)
Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.)
Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.)
Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.)
I don't know much about Fetterman or anything about Markey or Merkley, but Warren is one of the most irritating members of the Senate and frequently strikes me as somebody who has a low grasp of things. Sanders is an economic wingnut.
More Republicans voted against the bill than voted for it. Voting now were:
Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.)
Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.)
Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.)
Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.)
Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.)
Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.)
Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.)
Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho)
Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)
Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.)
Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.)
Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.)
Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.)
Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.)
Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.)
Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.)
Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.)
Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah)
Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.)
Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.)
Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.)
Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.)
Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho)
Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.)
Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.)
Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.)
Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.)
Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Ala.)
Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.)
Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio)
Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.)
Some of the not votes are no surprise. Rand Paul, for example, is constantly on the goofball end of things. But some really are.
Both of Wyoming's Senators voted no in what was frankly probably solely a political calculation. John Barrasso, who has given the deal some praise earlier on, is close to Mitch McConnell, or he was until yesterday, McConnell is a shrewd politician and Barrasso may live to regret crossing him. That Lummis joined him shows that probably both of them added up the votes and knew it was safe, for right now, to take this position as they'd be in the minority and the bill would pass, thereby the country being saved, but they could go home to voters they presume to be ignorant on the real meaning of what was at stake.
Indeed, that might be the case for almost all of these Republicans, which shows that they may frankly be pandering towards what they think the GOP base thinks, that being now safe to do.
Marco Rubio is a genuine surprise.
JD Vance certainly is not.
Graham is not, and maybe the only easily understandable person on the Republican list, to the extent that I know these various individuals views.
Nebraska's Deb Fischer, based on her dull Twitter feed, is not, but is a disappointment anyhow.
Of note, now Wyoming's Congressional delegation has voted with the Democrats they claim to despise the most. I.e, Wyoming's far right Congressman voted the same way as Social Democrat Bernie Sanders.
As a minor aside, one "no" voter, by declaration, didn't vote n the House vote at all. Lauren Boebert of Colorado was absent.
June 2, 2023
President Biden signed the bill.
Repeated questions are in the naure of "who won"? Well the American people did as the government won't slam to a halt, interest rates won't skyrocket, bonds won't descend to junk status, and massive numbers of Americans won't be unemployed in short order, including millions in the "let's default class" who didn't understand that they were in the group that would have been cast aside and discarded, some of them forever.
