Ready or not, here it comes.
Back in 2016 I ran a thread, well a series of threads, on the General Election. That election became so wild that one post couldn't contain it as I updated it. Hopefully that won't occur here (truly).
This year, in terms of the mid term election, we have a few races that might upset that, however. Particularly in the context of our turbulent times. So, who knows, maybe this one will have lots and lots of additions. I hope not.
Let's start with whose up.
The big race this year is for Governor. Citing term limits, Matt Mead is stepping down. As term limits have already been declared unconstitutional for legislative offices in Wyoming, and the same logic surely applies for the Governor's office, he need not really do this, but if he did want to run he would have to take the matter to Court. Frankly, I wish he would.
Wyoming has a long history of multiple term Governors and Mead has done a good job. He'd be serving the state to do one more term. But absent a "draft Matt Mead" movement, which isn't going to happen, he's not going to do that. A pity really.
So we'll see a contest for that race. Two candidates have announced, one has more or less announced and has an organization going, at least three others are heavily pondering. We'll add those soon.
And Liz Cheney's seat is up again, as it must be every two years.
Liz only got in as the two front runners took themselves out, Stalingrad style, in the primary. This would suggest that she might be vulnerable, but so far this race doesn't look to be heating up much. There's no official opponent yet, but there are some sounds from a Jackson physician. We'll take a look at this soon as well. While logic holds that Cheney should be vulnerable, Wyoming's strong tradition of reelecting incumbents operates against that.
And that also favors Senator John Barasso who is also up.
Senator Barasso has handily defeated any opponent that's run against him so far anyway and there's no reason at all to believe that he can be picked off. Nonetheless some elements of the AltRight have been barking at him, so he'll probably face a GOP primary contest, but one that's unlikely to have much success. No Democrats have really emerged yet.
And so the race begins.
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January 23, 2018
Well the Governor's race is officially kicked off.
Harriet Hageman, a far right Republican with Libertarian leanings has announced she's running. Running against her is Rex Rammel, who is even further to the right and a Tea Party adherent whose self declared himself to be "Wyoming's Donald Trump".
Now, the Trump part of this is perhaps disturbing as readers here will recall that I was firmly convinced that there was no earthly way that Trump would win the presidency, and yet he did. This shows my predictive powers aren't necessarily on the mark. Be that as it may, I'll predict right now that Rammel, who is an Idahoan veterinarian who had a controversial elk ranch there, and who subsequently relocated to Rock Springs, will do not better than he did when he was in the early race against Liz Cheney. Indeed, I'd regard Rammel as a bit of an extreme gadfly given his positions, which fit into a certain demographic category on public lands, that I'll deal with in another post. He's so extreme he'd arrest Federal employees who resist his concept that the State doesn't own the Federal domain, which it does not.
Hageman is not a gadfly by any means, and is a well known practicing attorney in Cheyenne. Be that as it may, I think she's running far to the right of most Wyomingites as well and I doubt that her early race will do well all the way to the primary. She's not as extreme as Rammel, but she make some hints of being fairly far in the Libertarian right field.
Knocked out of the race already is Ed Murray who was expected to make a run. Murray is a respected Republican conservative and the current serving Wyoming Secretary of State. A month ago Murray was accused of sexual assault of a type by a woman who had once worked in a law office he had worked in many years prior. I frankly doubted the claim and in recent weeks thought Murray would likely announce but yesterday a second woman came forth, the daughter of a former Democratic Wyoming Governor herself and married into another prominent Democratic Wyoming family, although she now lives in Virginia. Both incidents were alleged to have occurred in the 1980s. As I somewhat know the second woman's family, it'd be hard for me to discount her story of being forcibly kissed by Murray in 1989. So, another politician would appear to have gone down, perhaps, as part of the "Me Too" revelations that made so much news in 2017.
There will be more Republicans to announce, and it's widely expected that Matt Gordon, a figure with positions similar to Murray's, will announce. I'd guess that now he must be under a lot of pressure to do just that.
On the Democratic side Mary Throne, a lawyer in Cheyenne, has entered the race. Throne is well known and respected and while she's been careful, and wise, not to stake out too many hard and fast positions right now, she does stand a chance in a state that doesn't favor Democrats. Given the disarray in the GOP field she might be able to take a page out of Governor Sullivan's book in which he gained the state house in a late season campaign that had seen the Republicans in disarray early on.
The race for Congress has also kicked off.
Elizabeth Cheney is of course running, but she's likely concerned as she did not take a majority of votes in the GOP primary and you can still see a lot of "Cheney for Virginia" stickers around. And she's already drawn one Republican contender, Rod Miller.
Miller is, by early appearances, eccentric, but he's certainly all Wyoming. Miller is a former cowboy and rancher from Carbon County who lives now in Buford. Wild looking with long hair and a longer beard, he's pro public lands, unlike Cheney whose positions are unclear. In a normal year, Miller wouldn't stand a chance, but with Cheney not particularly liked by a lot of Wyomingites, he might have a better chance than normal.
And John Barasso is running to retain his seat in the Senate.
Barasso looked to draw some Steve Bannon inspired non Wyomingites to contend against him in the GOP primary, but this looks increasingly unlikely. Gary Trauner, who twice ran for the U.S. House and did very well, is running against him as a Democrat. Trauner lost a 2006 bid for the House 47.8% to unpopular Barbara Cubin's 48.3%. In 2008 he came within 10% of much more popular Cynthia Lummis Given that, it's curious that he hasn't chosen to run against less than popular Cheney who is serving her first term and who Wyomingites haven't really warmed up to. Barasso will be much more difficult for Trauner to unseat.
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January 24, 1918
The Tribune's article today on Murray noted that he had been expected to be the front runner for the Gubernatorial race.
I don't know if that's true or not but it does seem clear that these two combined allegations have effectively ended his political career.
The first of the two accusations, it should be noted, was the much more serious and Murray has denied it unequivocally. It would constitute a true species of sexual assault. The second accusation is crass and crude and would constitute a species of assault, but in terms of it being a "sexual assault" it would not likely be in the legal context but might be in the current social context. That one occurred in 1988 and Murray had married in the interim. He hasn't admitted it, but instead has said that he has no recollection of the event, alleged to have occurred on New Years Eve when the second accuser was babysitting for Murray and his wife. Having no recollection is a pretty weak denial.
This is interesting in the current political context for a couple of reasons. One is that frankly at least I, and I suspect some others, would have been inclined to dismiss the first accusation but for the second. The second, standing alone, would have been crass and inappropriate but probably could have been excused away due to New Years over indulging or something and the voters might have forgiven Murray. Standing together they're enough, in my view, to wipe out is chance of obtaining any other elected or even appointed position. The first one, if true and reported immediately, may have lead to criminal prosecution at the time.
So, what to make of all of this?
Well, for one thing, in our current political atmosphere the day does seem to have finally arrived in which old sins aren't forgiven by the electorate. Those skeletons, or at least those sexual skeletons, are coming back out and will get you, if they're in that closet. And even things that were once only minor examples of male brutish behavior (which the first of these allegations is much more than) are too much.
More immediately, if Murray was really the front runner, as the Tribune assumed, his fall is a huge gift to Hageman who is now the only real candidate running. That has to be putting a lot of pressure on Gordon.
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January 29, 2018
What does the (possible) recovery of oil do to the Governor's Race?
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January 24, 1918
The Tribune's article today on Murray noted that he had been expected to be the front runner for the Gubernatorial race.
I don't know if that's true or not but it does seem clear that these two combined allegations have effectively ended his political career.
The first of the two accusations, it should be noted, was the much more serious and Murray has denied it unequivocally. It would constitute a true species of sexual assault. The second accusation is crass and crude and would constitute a species of assault, but in terms of it being a "sexual assault" it would not likely be in the legal context but might be in the current social context. That one occurred in 1988 and Murray had married in the interim. He hasn't admitted it, but instead has said that he has no recollection of the event, alleged to have occurred on New Years Eve when the second accuser was babysitting for Murray and his wife. Having no recollection is a pretty weak denial.
This is interesting in the current political context for a couple of reasons. One is that frankly at least I, and I suspect some others, would have been inclined to dismiss the first accusation but for the second. The second, standing alone, would have been crass and inappropriate but probably could have been excused away due to New Years over indulging or something and the voters might have forgiven Murray. Standing together they're enough, in my view, to wipe out is chance of obtaining any other elected or even appointed position. The first one, if true and reported immediately, may have lead to criminal prosecution at the time.
So, what to make of all of this?
Well, for one thing, in our current political atmosphere the day does seem to have finally arrived in which old sins aren't forgiven by the electorate. Those skeletons, or at least those sexual skeletons, are coming back out and will get you, if they're in that closet. And even things that were once only minor examples of male brutish behavior (which the first of these allegations is much more than) are too much.
More immediately, if Murray was really the front runner, as the Tribune assumed, his fall is a huge gift to Hageman who is now the only real candidate running. That has to be putting a lot of pressure on Gordon.
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January 29, 2018
What does the (possible) recovery of oil do to the Governor's Race?
February 4, 2018
Taylor Haynes has now entered the race.
Apparently he actually did last month and its just being reported now, which might be because he's evolved, over time, from a surprise right wing candidate into a Tea Party candidate and now into what the Tribune calls a "perennial candidate". Perennial candidates in Wyoming are mostly noted for repeatedly loosing, although there are exceptions. One time Casper City councilman and legislator Keith Goodenough started off as a perennial candidate.
Haynes is running right with Rammel on the hardcore "take back the land" that we didn't own in the first place and bases his assertions on his reading of the U.S. Constitution, which he even maintains doesn't allow for the United States Supreme Court to interpret the Constitution, a radical, wrong, and frankly nutty idea. In his case, further, it's rather sad as he's highly educated and didn't start off as a candidate whose ideas were nutty. Indeed, Haynes comes across with some really surprising statements in this area. For example, according to the Star Tribune:
Haynes claimed that the federal government is aware that they do not own any public lands in Wyoming and will readily turn them over if the state insists.
Oh really?“You just enforce it,” he said. “The state has jurisdiction.”
All of this has to be serving Harriet Hageman well, right now. Compared to Rammel and Haynes she's the voice of conservative reason even though she herself is in the extreme right. Rammel and Haynes will likely vie for the same vote in the primary and destroy each other (they both announced, oddly, in Rock Springs). Hageman would normally be competing for that vote too, but chances are good that far right voters who are not Tea Party adherents will go to her.
Of course the ultimate beneficiary is likely to be Mary Throne, the essentially uncontested Democratic candidate who now occupies the entire middle. That will end once the GOP has some mainstream candidates announce, but whoever that candidate will have to fight off extremists from the right in the primary before turning to Throne. Shades of Mike Sullivan?
On all of this, and subject to another thread here, we have the irony of the recent ENDOW study suggesting that the state needs to get into the air travel funding arena to boost our economy. The Federal government is doing that now, and the state is somewhat, but WYDOT recommended a greater role and the ENDOW study endorsed that. We addressed that here:
And they both occupied professions that don't put people on the road to go 200 miles or more in one day, and then turn around and come back, routinely. Lots of Wyomingites do. Taking t he public lands away from them, and that's what state ownership would end up doing, makes their lives worse and doesn't address the state's actual economic ills at all.
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February 6, 2018.
It turns out that there's an additional Republican candidate running that I'd been unaware of, that being Bill Dahlin.
I don't know much about Dahlin and his campaign has been rather obviously fairly quiet to date. He's a businessman from Sheridan, and that's about all I know about him personally, and that from his website. According to that, he grew up in Sheridan, had a business career outside the state, and returned to Wyoming in 2000.
His positions would be characterized as conservative most places but would be regarded as moderate in the context of the current election. He doesn't favor the transfer of public lands from the Federal Government to the state and believes that "public lands belong to the public". He admits that in the past he's voted a split ticket. He's for the legalization of industrial hemp (which would require Federal action, not state).
He was the first person to actually enter the race, which his a bit disturbing in some ways as he sure hasn't gotten much press for doing so.
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February 10, 2018
Ed Murray resigned as Wyoming Secretary of State yesterday, February 9.
Former U.S. Congressional candidate Leland Christensen, who would be Congressman Christensen if Tim Stubson had dropped out of the race (or, conversely Tim Stubson would be Congressman if Christensen had dropped out) announced his candidacy for the office only hours prior. Christiensen mounted an effective campaign for Congress, as did Stubson, and the splitting of the GOP vote between them effectively wiped each other out allowing Cheney to advance past the primary. Christensen, in spite of doing well in that race, must have concluded that taking on an incumbent Cheney was unlikely to be successful.
The day prior well known Cheyenne Democrat Jim Byrd also announced for Murray's position.
Governor Mead will now have to appoint somebody to fill Murray's vacant office. That individual is likely to be a candidate as well, as everyone well knows, and therefore it will be interesting to see who he appoints.
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February 16, 2018
Tom Forslund, former manager of the City of Casper (for 23 years) has indicated he's thinking of getting into the race. He's currently the Director of Wyoming Departments of Health & Family Services.
Forslund appears to be testing the waters, and even admitting he's doing so, noting that he's balancing his desire to run, his desire to be effective and the costs of running.
If he gets in, he'll instantly be the GOP front runner. He's not an extremist and he has actual real world experience in government, including that of managing the largest city in Wyoming to have the city manager form of government. He was generally well liked as Casper's city manager and he certainly has experience with good and bad economic times.
In a lot of ways, Forslund would be a breath of fresh air in a campaign that, so far, has been dominated by some fairly extreme ideas on the GOP side of the race.
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February 22, 2018
Mark Gordon, who was widely expected to run this year, has announced he "intends" to run. That's not the same, for some reason, as actually announcing his campaign, but it's close.
Gordon is the State Treasurer and is also a highly educated Johnson County rancher. He's been universally popular in his various political efforts and this likely makes him the front runner.
With Gordon in, it'll be interesting to see if Forslund determines to stay out. In the House race this lasts go around Christensen and Stubson split the rank and file GOP vote which allowed the far from universally popular Cheney to advance to the general election. Forslund will not command the support going into the race that that Gordon will but, if he manged to secure quite a bit of it, and if he in particular still retains a Natrona County base (which is far from certain) that could repeat allowing potentially Hageman to advance. In that instance my prediction would be that Throne would win in the general election, a scenario we've also seen in the past, although not the recent past, which allowed two Democratic governors to serve in succession for a sixteen year period in spite of Wyoming being a heavily GOP state.
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February 23, 2018
Businessman David Dodson has declared as as "Reagan Republican" against John Barrasso, as of yesterday.
Except he's not.
Not a Republican that is. Or at least not really running as one. He's running as an independent.
That will assure that Dodson, who is a relocated Colorado businessman living in Jackson Hole, and a part time business lecturer at Stanford, will get to the general election, but it also means that he's basically running against the GOP. Removing an incumbent has proven to be nearly impossible in Wyoming, so the odds are very much against him.
Having said that, Barrasso may be somewhat more exposed to a center conservative than we might at first suppose. Barrasso is a relocated Pennsylvania orthopedic surgeon who gained his appointment by way of an appointment from the GOP. I.e., he didn't win the position in order to gain it. He's steadily risen to prominence in the Republican Party and he makes a real effort to return to the state every week, but he always tends to come across a bit as an outsider. Dodson will be an outsider as well, of course. Barrasso, however, has sided with the people who believe that the Federal government basically shouldn't be controlling the public domain which is in opposition to what most Wyomingites believe and which puts him, almost without his knowing it, in a certain radical camp. I've seen posts by individuals I know to be true Republican conservatives in the state really dissing Barrasso, without being specific as to why, but basically because of this issue.
Which does not mean that I think he's being replaced in the Fall is likely. But Dodson's entry is interesting.
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February 28, 2018
Dodson is not only running, but it turns out that he's willing to invest some major advertising dollars in the effort this early. That is unusual.
The day after I posted the item above, full page advertisements by Dodson, directed at Barasso, began to appear in the Star Tribune. The last couple of days television advertisements, and highly aggressive ones at that, started appearing on television. And it's only February.
This makes it pretty plain that Dodson is prepared to campaign right from the onset of his announcement through the fall and invest some major cash in the effort. His television advertisements proclaim he's a "Reagan Republican", but running as an independent, and that Barasso "has a fight on his hands". He really might.
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March 13, 2018
The Dodson television blitz continues on. A recent television ad featured his sister, if I caught that right, who apparently was the first member of the Dodson family to move to Wyoming and who made a plea for her brother on the basis that she doesn't want to see her sons have to move out of the state for work.
Dodson's campaign so far seems to be 100% economic. That might be a good start to things but I wonder how far it will really take him. He claims to be a Reagan Republican but what does that mean in this context? It has to mean more than the economy I suspect or this campaign will run out of steam.
It's also going to be hard at some point for Dodson not to seem like another political carpetbagger in the state. John Barasso isn't from Wyoming either, he's from Pennsylvania, but he did spend the entire significant part of his work life here. Dodson was born in Greeley, which at least is a hardscrabble western work town, but most of his working life was spent elsewhere and his Wyoming residence is in Teton County, which equates with massive wealth which isn't something that he'll have in common with most Wyomingites. His campaign, as noted, is 100% economic so far, but what does he believe on anything else? He'll have to start letting people know, and soon.
Mark Gordon appears ready to officially announce his campaign on March 15 here in Casper, which would make him the second gubernatorial candidate to announce from Casper. It's interesting that people seem to want to distance themselves from Cheyenne for their official announcements. Anyhow, he's set to run.
Right now, I'm listening to an episode of the Right to Roam podcast in which Gordon is a guest. Those podcast run about 45 minutes in length and I'm about 3/4s of the way through it and I have yet to hear the $65.00 question on what his views are about public land. I think, based on what little I know about Gordon, that he opposed the attempt at a land grab by the state, but I'm hoping to hear that question asked.
I note that as both Barasso and Gordon have adopted a "stop the Federal land grab" and "stop the War on the West" banners in their early campaigns. With Barasso, he's already on record supporting a state land grab and worked to have that inserted in the last GOP platform. This is a massively unpopular view here in the state and no doubt Gary Trauner, the Democratic candidate, will be harping on that, as he seems tuned into local issues pretty well. Whether Dodson will get off the "Wyoming has the worst economy in the US" drumbeat long enough to notice that is another matter. If he doesn't, the Star Tribune columnist who mused that Dodson may mostly serve to open the door for Trauner might prove to be correct.
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March 16, 2018
Mark Gordon officially announced yesterday.
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March 21, 2018
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March 25, 2018
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March 26, 2018
The Casper Star Tribune ran an interesting column today on the "branding" by the various candidates for Governor. That is, their logos and whatnot.
I'm not commenting on that, but rather on a comment that was included in the article, that being that the two best funded campaigns were those of Scott Gordon and Sam Galeotos. I don't know much about Galeotos, a political newcomer, so that surprised me. Given that, Galeotos may prove to be a pretty major contender, or at least a pretty active one.
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Jillian Balow announced that she was running for re-election as Superintendent of Public Instruction. Balow took office following the chaotic administration of Cindy Hill which had resulted in a contest between the legislature and the Superintendent which ended up in court. In her announcement she emphasized that she had desired to bring some stability into the office. To date she is the only person to have announced for the office.
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March 31, 2018
Dodson's television campaign has expanded out beyond its solitary economic theme. For awhile, I wondered if that's all it was going to focus on, but a new ad with Dodson speaking, in his now typical somewhat angry tone, claims that during Barasso's entire tenure as a U.S. Senator he's only introduced one bill that passed and that was for a new Federal courthouse in Teton County. Dodson then dismisses that as being for Barasso's rich friends and donors.
I don't know. I think that might oversimplify the American Congressional method of drafting legislation but I truly don't know what Barasso's legislative record is. I am sure he's going to have to answer to Dodson soon. FWIW, however, I doubt that Republican wealthy in Teton County care much about Federal courthouses. Indeed, I'd think of that being more of a Democratic thing quite frankly.
Both Dodson and Barasso made an appearance at an event I went to in Natrona County recently. Dodson had a table one day, while I was there, and Barasso toured through the day prior. I avoided Dodson's table as I'm shy and don't like to engage much in conversation with folks I don't know, but I soon regretted it as quite frankly there were a series of questions I'd like to have asked him.
Gary Trauner toured through the county this past week, so Natrona County is getting a lot of attention. I didn't happen to run across him however.
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April 1, 2018
The Star Tribune proclaimed that the Governor's race was "Gordon's To Lose", meaning that in their opinion he'll be the next governor of the state unless he blows it.
Well, perhaps, but some of the things noted in the article would hint that he might be blowing it already. Principal amongst them is the fact that nobody really knows what his views actually are on anything, although maybe that's an advantage early on.
The CST pointed to his website which simply notes a series of vague things without saying much of anything at all. Specifically, if you go to his website, you'll find under issues the following:
On all of this, and subject to another thread here, we have the irony of the recent ENDOW study suggesting that the state needs to get into the air travel funding arena to boost our economy. The Federal government is doing that now, and the state is somewhat, but WYDOT recommended a greater role and the ENDOW study endorsed that. We addressed that here:
Taylor Haynes is quoted rhetorically musing on this, stating:ENDOW Study. Air Travel First
Federal Express at the Natrona County International Airport. An airport that can handle a plane like this could sure easily handle intra state air travel.We've posted a lot about Wyoming's Boom and Bust economy over the years, particularly the last few years as we've slid into a bust. Supposedly we're coming out of that right now, although a report that the state issued last week stated the opposite. Citing employment figures, the report felt we were still in a bust. Perhaps note noted in that, although I've discussed it here, a revived petroleum economy is not likely to be quite as labor intensive as prior booms as technology has developed to the point where exploration and drilling are not as labor intensive as they once were. This will not be true. . . yet, of the support infrastructure where more of the jobs actually are, but we note this as the oil industry as subject to the labor reducing aspects of technology just like everything else. This should give economic planners in Wyoming pause.
“We have a pretty good tax structure and a nice place to live, so why aren’t we overrun with companies wanting to come here?” Haynes said.Even he, a libertarian (in essence) comes up with a government role here, noting;
Haynes said he wanted information technology taught to every public school student in the state in order to create a workforce that can serve the technology industry. He also wants high school students to be able to select a college or vocational track.That's fine, I suppose, but at this part I can't help but note what seems to be a significant disconnect in the GOP from average folks, although less so for Hageman who shares my occupation and therefore its travel burdens. In the Tea Party end of the GOP there seems to be an illusion that somehow, if the public lands, end up in state hands it magically cures all economic ills. Now, what it would do is to dispossess average people, which is why average Wyomingites are dead set against this. Haynes and Rammel, based upon what I know of them, are quite well off and may simply not see what things are like for average Wyomingites. After all, they are both imports from elsewhere.
And they both occupied professions that don't put people on the road to go 200 miles or more in one day, and then turn around and come back, routinely. Lots of Wyomingites do. Taking t he public lands away from them, and that's what state ownership would end up doing, makes their lives worse and doesn't address the state's actual economic ills at all.
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February 6, 2018.
It turns out that there's an additional Republican candidate running that I'd been unaware of, that being Bill Dahlin.
I don't know much about Dahlin and his campaign has been rather obviously fairly quiet to date. He's a businessman from Sheridan, and that's about all I know about him personally, and that from his website. According to that, he grew up in Sheridan, had a business career outside the state, and returned to Wyoming in 2000.
His positions would be characterized as conservative most places but would be regarded as moderate in the context of the current election. He doesn't favor the transfer of public lands from the Federal Government to the state and believes that "public lands belong to the public". He admits that in the past he's voted a split ticket. He's for the legalization of industrial hemp (which would require Federal action, not state).
He was the first person to actually enter the race, which his a bit disturbing in some ways as he sure hasn't gotten much press for doing so.
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February 10, 2018
Ed Murray resigned as Wyoming Secretary of State yesterday, February 9.
Former U.S. Congressional candidate Leland Christensen, who would be Congressman Christensen if Tim Stubson had dropped out of the race (or, conversely Tim Stubson would be Congressman if Christensen had dropped out) announced his candidacy for the office only hours prior. Christiensen mounted an effective campaign for Congress, as did Stubson, and the splitting of the GOP vote between them effectively wiped each other out allowing Cheney to advance past the primary. Christensen, in spite of doing well in that race, must have concluded that taking on an incumbent Cheney was unlikely to be successful.
The day prior well known Cheyenne Democrat Jim Byrd also announced for Murray's position.
Governor Mead will now have to appoint somebody to fill Murray's vacant office. That individual is likely to be a candidate as well, as everyone well knows, and therefore it will be interesting to see who he appoints.
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February 16, 2018
Tom Forslund, former manager of the City of Casper (for 23 years) has indicated he's thinking of getting into the race. He's currently the Director of Wyoming Departments of Health & Family Services.
Forslund appears to be testing the waters, and even admitting he's doing so, noting that he's balancing his desire to run, his desire to be effective and the costs of running.
If he gets in, he'll instantly be the GOP front runner. He's not an extremist and he has actual real world experience in government, including that of managing the largest city in Wyoming to have the city manager form of government. He was generally well liked as Casper's city manager and he certainly has experience with good and bad economic times.
In a lot of ways, Forslund would be a breath of fresh air in a campaign that, so far, has been dominated by some fairly extreme ideas on the GOP side of the race.
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February 22, 2018
Mark Gordon, who was widely expected to run this year, has announced he "intends" to run. That's not the same, for some reason, as actually announcing his campaign, but it's close.
Gordon is the State Treasurer and is also a highly educated Johnson County rancher. He's been universally popular in his various political efforts and this likely makes him the front runner.
With Gordon in, it'll be interesting to see if Forslund determines to stay out. In the House race this lasts go around Christensen and Stubson split the rank and file GOP vote which allowed the far from universally popular Cheney to advance to the general election. Forslund will not command the support going into the race that that Gordon will but, if he manged to secure quite a bit of it, and if he in particular still retains a Natrona County base (which is far from certain) that could repeat allowing potentially Hageman to advance. In that instance my prediction would be that Throne would win in the general election, a scenario we've also seen in the past, although not the recent past, which allowed two Democratic governors to serve in succession for a sixteen year period in spite of Wyoming being a heavily GOP state.
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February 23, 2018
Businessman David Dodson has declared as as "Reagan Republican" against John Barrasso, as of yesterday.
Except he's not.
Not a Republican that is. Or at least not really running as one. He's running as an independent.
That will assure that Dodson, who is a relocated Colorado businessman living in Jackson Hole, and a part time business lecturer at Stanford, will get to the general election, but it also means that he's basically running against the GOP. Removing an incumbent has proven to be nearly impossible in Wyoming, so the odds are very much against him.
Having said that, Barrasso may be somewhat more exposed to a center conservative than we might at first suppose. Barrasso is a relocated Pennsylvania orthopedic surgeon who gained his appointment by way of an appointment from the GOP. I.e., he didn't win the position in order to gain it. He's steadily risen to prominence in the Republican Party and he makes a real effort to return to the state every week, but he always tends to come across a bit as an outsider. Dodson will be an outsider as well, of course. Barrasso, however, has sided with the people who believe that the Federal government basically shouldn't be controlling the public domain which is in opposition to what most Wyomingites believe and which puts him, almost without his knowing it, in a certain radical camp. I've seen posts by individuals I know to be true Republican conservatives in the state really dissing Barrasso, without being specific as to why, but basically because of this issue.
Which does not mean that I think he's being replaced in the Fall is likely. But Dodson's entry is interesting.
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February 28, 2018
Dodson is not only running, but it turns out that he's willing to invest some major advertising dollars in the effort this early. That is unusual.
The day after I posted the item above, full page advertisements by Dodson, directed at Barasso, began to appear in the Star Tribune. The last couple of days television advertisements, and highly aggressive ones at that, started appearing on television. And it's only February.
This makes it pretty plain that Dodson is prepared to campaign right from the onset of his announcement through the fall and invest some major cash in the effort. His television advertisements proclaim he's a "Reagan Republican", but running as an independent, and that Barasso "has a fight on his hands". He really might.
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March 13, 2018
The Dodson television blitz continues on. A recent television ad featured his sister, if I caught that right, who apparently was the first member of the Dodson family to move to Wyoming and who made a plea for her brother on the basis that she doesn't want to see her sons have to move out of the state for work.
Dodson's campaign so far seems to be 100% economic. That might be a good start to things but I wonder how far it will really take him. He claims to be a Reagan Republican but what does that mean in this context? It has to mean more than the economy I suspect or this campaign will run out of steam.
It's also going to be hard at some point for Dodson not to seem like another political carpetbagger in the state. John Barasso isn't from Wyoming either, he's from Pennsylvania, but he did spend the entire significant part of his work life here. Dodson was born in Greeley, which at least is a hardscrabble western work town, but most of his working life was spent elsewhere and his Wyoming residence is in Teton County, which equates with massive wealth which isn't something that he'll have in common with most Wyomingites. His campaign, as noted, is 100% economic so far, but what does he believe on anything else? He'll have to start letting people know, and soon.
Mark Gordon appears ready to officially announce his campaign on March 15 here in Casper, which would make him the second gubernatorial candidate to announce from Casper. It's interesting that people seem to want to distance themselves from Cheyenne for their official announcements. Anyhow, he's set to run.
Right now, I'm listening to an episode of the Right to Roam podcast in which Gordon is a guest. Those podcast run about 45 minutes in length and I'm about 3/4s of the way through it and I have yet to hear the $65.00 question on what his views are about public land. I think, based on what little I know about Gordon, that he opposed the attempt at a land grab by the state, but I'm hoping to hear that question asked.
I note that as both Barasso and Gordon have adopted a "stop the Federal land grab" and "stop the War on the West" banners in their early campaigns. With Barasso, he's already on record supporting a state land grab and worked to have that inserted in the last GOP platform. This is a massively unpopular view here in the state and no doubt Gary Trauner, the Democratic candidate, will be harping on that, as he seems tuned into local issues pretty well. Whether Dodson will get off the "Wyoming has the worst economy in the US" drumbeat long enough to notice that is another matter. If he doesn't, the Star Tribune columnist who mused that Dodson may mostly serve to open the door for Trauner might prove to be correct.
What that means with Gordon is
another matter and I hope we will soon learn. Liz Cheney has been busy
with some bill that impacts Wyoming lands from a Federal prospective and it's
quite clear that she's in the minority on this view and likely knows it. She
also may very well know where her bread is buttered, politically, and so far
benefits from the fact that her only GOP challenger is quite eccentric.
It seems pretty clear that Cheney could be bumped out of her seat fairly easily
if a popular Republican, say Matt Mead, ran for it, of if a popular Democrat
for that matter, ran for it. So far, that's not happening.
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March 16, 2018
Mark Gordon officially announced yesterday.
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March 21, 2018
Cheyenne businessman Sam Galeotos
announced that he would announce for the Governor's office today. Galeotos
has been an active figure in business and community in Cheyenne, but he's
otherwise a political newcomer.
The race on the Republican side is
beginning to become a bit crowded.
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March 25, 2018
Leland
Christensen came out this past week and announced that he was a candidate for
State Treasurer. Earlier Christensen had been announced to be a candidate for
Secretary of State, a race he is now implicitly abandoning.
The Teton
County native and former sheriff's deputy has been a long time Teton County
legislature and was a candidate for the U.S. House in 2016. Indeed, he'd
likely be Wyoming's Congressman but for Tim Stubson, with whom he split the
vote opposing Cheney. Of course, by the same token, Stubson would now be
Wyoming's Congressman but for Christensen.
Running for the
Treasurer office being left by Scott Gordon is a good move for Christensen who
is likely positioning himself for a future run at Congress or the Governorship.
As he did well in the Congressional race, he's likely to do well in the race
for Treasurer.
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March 26, 2018
The Casper Star Tribune ran an interesting column today on the "branding" by the various candidates for Governor. That is, their logos and whatnot.
I'm not commenting on that, but rather on a comment that was included in the article, that being that the two best funded campaigns were those of Scott Gordon and Sam Galeotos. I don't know much about Galeotos, a political newcomer, so that surprised me. Given that, Galeotos may prove to be a pretty major contender, or at least a pretty active one.
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March 28, 2018
Jillian Balow announced that she was running for re-election as Superintendent of Public Instruction. Balow took office following the chaotic administration of Cindy Hill which had resulted in a contest between the legislature and the Superintendent which ended up in court. In her announcement she emphasized that she had desired to bring some stability into the office. To date she is the only person to have announced for the office.
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March 31, 2018
Dodson's television campaign has expanded out beyond its solitary economic theme. For awhile, I wondered if that's all it was going to focus on, but a new ad with Dodson speaking, in his now typical somewhat angry tone, claims that during Barasso's entire tenure as a U.S. Senator he's only introduced one bill that passed and that was for a new Federal courthouse in Teton County. Dodson then dismisses that as being for Barasso's rich friends and donors.
I don't know. I think that might oversimplify the American Congressional method of drafting legislation but I truly don't know what Barasso's legislative record is. I am sure he's going to have to answer to Dodson soon. FWIW, however, I doubt that Republican wealthy in Teton County care much about Federal courthouses. Indeed, I'd think of that being more of a Democratic thing quite frankly.
Both Dodson and Barasso made an appearance at an event I went to in Natrona County recently. Dodson had a table one day, while I was there, and Barasso toured through the day prior. I avoided Dodson's table as I'm shy and don't like to engage much in conversation with folks I don't know, but I soon regretted it as quite frankly there were a series of questions I'd like to have asked him.
Gary Trauner toured through the county this past week, so Natrona County is getting a lot of attention. I didn't happen to run across him however.
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April 1, 2018
The Star Tribune proclaimed that the Governor's race was "Gordon's To Lose", meaning that in their opinion he'll be the next governor of the state unless he blows it.
Well, perhaps, but some of the things noted in the article would hint that he might be blowing it already. Principal amongst them is the fact that nobody really knows what his views actually are on anything, although maybe that's an advantage early on.
The CST pointed to his website which simply notes a series of vague things without saying much of anything at all. Specifically, if you go to his website, you'll find under issues the following:
Building a Bright FutureMark understands that here in Wyoming, we’re an open book. You can write your own chapter and shape your own destiny.Growing up on the ranch in Kaycee, when his family or neighbors had a problem, they didn’t look to the government to solve it. They rolled up their sleeves, banded together and got the job done. As Governor, Mark will fight to get government out of the way and allow the people of Wyoming to prosper.Wyoming remains the best state in the nation to live, raise a family or start a business. With some of the lowest taxes in the country, favorable regulatory policies, access to private and public-sector resources, Wyoming is the place to be for self-starters, entrepreneurs and anyone who wants to chart their own course.Mark understands what it takes to retain and foster Wyoming’s youth and talent while attracting the best and brightest to advance current industries in our state and grow new ones. He has a broad range of experience in the fields most important to Wyoming, from running a family ranch, owning and operating Main Street businesses, and working in the energy industry. Mark recognizes that Wyoming is ready to be a leader in these fields and many more – from technology and computer science to advanced manufacturing and engineering.Reducing the Size of Government and Decreasing SpendingEnsuring Wyoming has a balanced budget and that our government is living within its means is absolutely essential. This means prioritizing needs versus wants. Wyoming’s revenues are down significantly and while recent economic forecasts have been promising, we are not out of the woods yet. We must rein in our spending today to ensure fiscal stability tomorrow.Mark’s track record in the Treasurer’s office demonstrates his ability to do more with less while safeguarding taxpayer dollars. A fiscal conservative all his life, Mark has the private and public-sector experience to chart this new course Wyoming.The boom times over the last decade have resulted in rising spending rates that Wyoming simply cannot keep up with. During this time, Mark has successfully managed the state’s second largestcontributor to general fund income – investment income. He has delivered the funds best performance in the past decade and has set procedures in place that ultimately position Wyoming to benefit further from investment income in the years to come. He has firsthand knowledge of the state’s fiscal position and knows how to best protect taxpayer’s money while making it work efficiently and effectively for our citizens.As Governor, Mark will conservatively manage spending levels without growing government, while still providing the essential services the people of Wyoming depend on.
Ensuring the Future of Wyoming’s Natural ResourcesWyoming’s natural resources are second to none. Be it oil, gas, coal, uranium or wind – Wyoming has it all. And there are no greater stewards of these energy and natural resources than the people of Wyoming.Throughout his career, Mark has worked to push back against federal overreach and cut through bureaucratic red-tape that has kept much of our natural resources under lock and key.As Governor, Mark will ensure responsible development of our state’s vast natural resources while protecting open space and access to public lands. He will work to position Wyoming as the leader in advanced energy technologies including Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) and new carbon-to-product markets.
Defending Our Conservative ValuesA lifelong conservative, Mark works to defend the Wyoming values of limited government, low taxes and personal responsibility. He understands the importance of local control and has fought to keep Washington out of Wyoming. Mark is a staunch protector of the Constitution. He believes in putting families first and is pro-life.Mark is a lifelong member of the NRA and believes the right to bear arms is fundamental. Growing up on a ranch, owning guns is part of his way of life. Mark hunts, taught all his kids how to shoot and owns a firearm for personal protection. Mark will continue to be a relentless defender of the Second Amendment.
I guess we can
very vaguely, maybe, take a few things away from this. He's a fiscal
conservative. . . we get that. He's a conservative in general. More
specifically;
- Like everyone, seemingly, in Wyoming, he believes there's a lot of Federal overreach.
- "As Governor, Mark will ensure responsible development of our state’s vast natural resources while protecting open space and access to public lands." which presumably means he's not party of the "grab them and sell them" wing of the GOP on public lands, although his exact position on that issue remains unknown."He will work to position Wyoming as the leader in advanced energy technologies including Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS), Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) and new carbon-to-product markets" which puts him in the GOP camp that oddly maintains that there Federal government spends too much while urging it to spend in this area."He believes in putting families first and is pro-life."" Mark will continue to be a relentless defender of the Second Amendment."
So we
know something, if not enough. At some point, I think that needs to get
fleshed out.
Harriet Hageman
is, on the other hand, making her views known including one that would propose
to have the Federal Government transfer 1,000,000 acres to an already cash
strapped State of Wyoming as an administrative experiment. That's a precursor
to a push for a full transfer no matter what a person may otherwise
maintain. At least when this went up on her Facebook page it was going
over like a lead balloon. This is a massively unpopular idea with most Wyoming
citizens.
The Tribune
thinks that Hageman is relying too much on rural voters which I think assumes a
lot about rural voters. Anymore I'm not hearing any support amongst most
rural voters for transferring the public lands to the states. Indeed, I
don't hear ranchers talk about it at all with any support and the only group of
people I hear support it are on a certain radical wing of the GOP that is in
the Tea Party camp.
While I'm very
much opposed to that position, I'll give Hageman credit for setting out her
views on a lot of issues, which may reveal an internet based effort to get her
views out in front of Gordon. It's pretty clear that she's trying to run
as a conservative and not a Tea Party candidate while tossing some Morning
Blend their way at the same time.
Galeotos seems
to be tanking more the Gordon approach, only more so. He has a list of
things he supports but they're all one liners that most Wyomingites
support. Galeotos is apparently the first or second best funded campaign
but he's not doing much on his website information wise.
Again, maybe
that's intentional. Gordon is out in front, everyone believes, so by
getting very specific he can only be attacked. Galeotos has a lot of
money for a big push when the time comes and might not want to get into a fight
now. Hageman is the least well funded so perhaps an internet based
campaign that's surprisingly specific and less radical than we might expect, if
still notably to the right of Galeotos and Gordon is her strategy.
That leaves out
several other GOP candidates, of course, but a couple are simply being
dismissed by the Tribune and I think they're right to do so. The one
that has been surprisingly quiet and remains an unknown is Bill
Dahlin. Given the lack of name recognition, if Dahlin hopes to have a
chance, he probably better get active in the GOP field fairly soon.
