Showing posts with label Trailing Posts. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Trailing Posts. Show all posts

Friday, June 2, 2023

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XIII. The Economic Doomsday Clock

Let's be frank.  If the Administration and Congress do not agree to raise the debt ceiling, sometime within the next two weeks, and probably this week, the nation, followed probably by the world, will go into a Depression.


Truly, this is absurd.

May 22, 2023


Talks between Kevin McCarthy and President Biden resume today.

It's an open question of to what extent McCarthy can even carry through with anything he agrees to, beholding as he is to the populist right.  The Administration, for its part, has approached this looming deadline with some lack of urgency.

Should the country go over this cliff, that's what will be remembered about both of these individuals.

The State of Wyoming and University of Wyoming are partnering with Black Tooth Brewery for the issuance of Wyoming Golden Ale.  The beer launches on May 27.  Labels are brown and gold and feature the Wyoming bucking horse on them.

May 23, 2023


Yesterday's meeting between Biden and McCarthy late in the day was, "productive".  It didn't result in a deal, however.   The parties claim an outline of a prospective deal is there.

May 23, cont.

No deal today.

May 24, 2023



The inevitable is now happening in that Kevin McCarthy, having taken the nation right to the brink, at least by half, cannot close a deal as House members to his right will not agree to yield.  The Freedom Caucus, which represents the most extreme populist Republicans, has put out the following, which appears on Twitter, and lots of its naive acolytes are parroting the lines.
House Freedom Caucus
@freedomcaucus
Republicans must #HoldTheLine on the debt ceiling to bring spending back to reality and restore fiscal sanity in DC. We spend $100+ billion more than federal tax revenues EVERY MONTH. Washington has a spending problem, not a revenue problem.

The irony of many of the followers is that if the nation goes into default, they are amongst the class that will be financially destroyed.  It will be the middle class and lower middle class that will go almost certainly into poverty. The rich nearly always have vehicles to avoid destruction, and the upper middle class will survive. The other two demographics, however, from with the Freedom Caucus and Trumpites draw their support, will not.  A further irony will be that they'll soon be seeking government relief.

Up until today, I'd have guessed that there was about a 60% chance that a deal would be reached this week, avoiding default.  My present guess is that there is a 60% chance that this will not occur, and that this will be the last major holiday Americans will enjoy before the nation goes into a default and enters the worst national recession since the Great Depression.  None of the Congressional power brokers or major Presidential candidates presently announced will survive it politically.

I hope I'm wrong.

May 24, cont:

Every Democrat has endorsed a discharge petition.  In order to pass, it would require five Republicans to join them.

That isn't much, but it may be too many.

May 27, 2023

Janet Yellen now puts the default date on June 5, a move which will only fuel the fire as populists will proclaim the dates are all phony.

May 28, 2023


And a budget deal was reached and, presumably, disaster adverted.

This presuming the House and Senate agree with it, which isn't a safe assumption.

Some of the provisions.

The debt limit is suspended through 2025.  My prediction is that if the Democrats take the legislative branch while also retaining the executive, they'll simply do away with it entirely.  Frankly, maybe the GOP will under the same circumstances.

Non-discretionary spending, where the hard work really is, will be flat next year and increased by just 1% in 2025.

Defense spending increases next year by 3.3%, below the current rate of inflation.

There will be phased in requirements for work for recipients of the Supplemental Nutritional Assistance Program up to age 54, rather than the current age 49, with a set of exceptions.

Energy permitting will be sped up, even though there's somewhat of a glut of them now.

May 30, 2023

Congressman Hageman is amongst the far right wing Republicans that will not support the budget deal that has been arrived upon.

Failure to raise the debt ceiling by June 5 will destroy the economy and cause an economic depression.  This seems evident, and it is hard to grasp how anyone could support that result.

Kevin McCarthy seems likely to lose his position as Speaker of the House over the matter.

May 31, 2023


The House Rules Committee cleared the budget deal out on to the House floor, but only by a single vote, and only because budget hawk Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky voted for it, rather than allow the country to go into a depression.  Six other far right Republicans were fiscally irresponsible and voted no, voting their ideology and ignorance rather than the facts.

The deal is likely to pass in the House, where the overwhelming majority of Democrats will be for it and probably most of the Republicans.

Having said that, all four Democrats on the Rules Committee voted no, which is a bad sign, along with Reps. Ralph Norman of South Carolina and Chip Roy of Texas.  So a real possibility exist that it will not Pass the House and its questionable what will happen when it reaches the Senate.

June 1, 2023


Just four days away from an inability of the US to pay its bills and, should it occur, a global economic melt down.

Yesterday, the House of Representatives voted against destroying the global economy and voted to approve 

Thsoe voting no were as follows:
Rep. Mark Alford of Missouri
Rep. Andy Biggs of Arizona
Rep. Dan Bishop of North Carolina
Rep. Mike Bost of Illinois
Rep. Josh Brecheen of Oklahoma
Rep. Vern Buchanan of Florida
Rep. Ken Buck of Colorado
Rep. Tim Burchett of Tennessee
Rep. Eric Burlison of Missouri
Rep. Kat Cammack of Florida
Rep. Buddy Carter of Texas
Rep. Ben Cline of Virginia
Rep. Michael Cloud of Texas
Rep. Andrew Clyde of Georgia
Rep. Mike Collins of Georgia
Rep. Eli Crane of Arizona
Rep. Scott DesJarlais of Tennessee
Rep. Byron Donalds of Florida
Rep. Pat Fallon of Texas
Rep. Brad Finstad of Minnesota
Rep. Michelle Fischbach of Minnesota
Rep. Russell Fry of South Carolina
Rep. Mark Fulcher of Idaho
Rep. Matt Gaetz of Florida
Rep. Tony Gonzales of Texas
Rep. Bob Good of Virginia
Rep. Lance Gooden of Texas
Rep. Paul Gosar of Arizona
Rep. Morgan Griffith of Virginia
Rep. Michael Guest of Mississippi
Rep. Harriet Hageman of Wyoming
Rep. Andy Harris of Maryland
Rep. Diana Harshbarger of Tennessee
Rep. Kevin Hern of Oklahoma
Rep. Clay Higgins of Louisiana
Rep. Wesley Hunt of Texas
Rep. Ronny Jackson of Texas
Rep. Darin LaHood of Illinois
Rep. Debbie Lesko or Arizona
Rep. Anna Paulina Luna of Florida
Rep. Morgan Luttrell of Texas
Rep. Nancy Mace of South Carolina
Rep. Tracey Mann of Kansas
Rep. Brian Mast of Florida
Rep. Rich McCormick of Georgia
Rep. Mary Miller of Illinois
Rep. Cory Mills of Florida
Rep. Alex Mooney of West Virginia
Rep. Barry Moore of Alabama
Rep. Nathaniel Moran of Texas
Rep. Ralph Norman of South Carolina
Rep. Andy Ogles of Tennessee
Rep. Gary Palmer of Alabama
Rep. Scott Perry of Pennsylvania
Rep. Bill Posey of Florida
Rep. John Rose of Tennessee
Rep. Matt Rosendale of Montana
Rep. Chip Roy of Texas
Rep. George Santos of New York
Rep. Keith Self of Texas
Rep. Pete Sessions of Texas
Rep. Vicotira Spartz of Indiana
Rep. Greg Steube of Florida
Rep. Dale Strong of Alabama
Rep. Tom Tiffany of Wisconsin
Rep. William Timmons of South Carolina
Rep. Jeff Van Drew of New Jersey
Rep. Beth Van Duyne of Texas
Rep. Mike Waltz of Florida
Rep. Randy Weber of Texas
Rep. Ryan Zinke of Montana

No mistake should be made about the no votes.  The no votes were an outright vote to demolish the economy in the name of a radical concept of economy purity, whether the Congressman understands that or not. Some probably do, and some probably only voted no as they knew the item would pass, thereby giving them the ability to claim that they were voting to balance the budget back home, a claim that depends on voter ignorance on how the budget and economy works, a cynical reliance that has so far proved to be well-placed. The budget cannot be balanced in any way, shape, or form without raising taxes, or deeply cutting into Social Security and its related programs.   Taxes need to be raised, and the current out of control deficits the country is running date back to a misbegotten concept in the Reagan era that by lowering taxes the government could be starved on the vine.

The matter is now in the Senate, where saving the economy will require quick action in a body that's dominated by the elderly.  Moreover, on the Senate side, Gene Shepherd's maxim that fanatics meet each other in their fanaticism is proving true as the opponents of the bill include the members of the far left, and the far right, neither of which seem to grasp how budgets actually work.

June 1, cont.

Speaker of the House McCarthy stated today:

The president walled off all the others. The majority driver of the budget is mandatory spending. It’s Medicare, Social Security, interest on the debt.

That's 100% correct.  As noted in a thread put up just today:

  • 63% of the Federal Budget is non-discretionary.  That money must be spent, so you can't touch that.  No cuts.  This category is Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, and other mandatory programs.
  • 30% is discretionary spending.  You can cut that.
  • 14% of the budget is on Defense.  That's discretionary, so you can cut that.  In FY 2023 the overall Defense was about $777 Billion.
  • 16% of the budget it non defense discretionary, you can cut that.  This is funding for every government program and office that isn't Social Security, Medicare, Medicaid, or some other mandatory program, and isn't defense.
  • The balance, about 7%, is net interest.  You pretty much have to spend that.
  • The total outlays, i.e., expenditures, going into the process, amount to $5.9 Trillion.
  • The total revenues are $4.9 Trillion.
  • A $1 Trillion deficit, therefore, exists going into the process.

Regarding revenues, we have this.

  • 32% of all U.S. Revenue comes through payroll taxes.
  • 53% of all U.S. Revenue comes from income taxes.
  • 9% of all U.S. Revenue comes from corporate taxes.
  • 6% of all U.S. Revenue comes from other sources, such as fees, specialized taxes, tariffs, and gift and estate taxes.

McCarthy has indicated a bipartisan committee is being formed to look at non-discretionary spending. 

A couple of things.

He may need to say these things now, in order to keep his job as speaker, but he may well be damaging the ability to get the deal through the Senate, as the far left will definitely react.

Taxes are the solution to a lot of this.

June 2, 2023

Skywest to receive additional subsidy payment

The City of Casper has voted to approve a $50,000 supplement to the subsidies already provided to local passenger air carriers.  This subsidizes solely the Casper to Salt Lake City flight.  The subsidy will pay for a larger airplane for the flight, through the summer.

If SkyWest, the Delta provider, does not find that this makes the run more popular, it'll likely be cut, and air travel to Salt Lake will end.


In an example of phenomenal speed, the U.S. Senate acted to save the global economy, and against the narrow mindedness of the far right and far left, and pass the budget compromise bill.

A depression has thugs been avoided.

The vote was 63 to 36.

Voting against the bill, on the Democratic side, were:

Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) 

Sen. Edward Markey (D-Mass.) 

Sen. Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.) 

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.)

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) 

I don't know much about Fetterman or anything about Markey or Merkley, but Warren is one of the most irritating members of the Senate and frequently strikes me as somebody who has a low grasp of things.  Sanders is an economic wingnut. 

More Republicans voted against the bill than voted for it. Voting now were:

Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) 

Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.) 

Sen. Mike Braun (R-Ind.) 

Sen. Katie Britt (R-Ala.) 

Sen. Ted Budd (R-N.C.) 

Sen. Bill Cassidy (R-La.) 

Sen. Tom Cotton (R-Ark.) 

Sen. Mike Crapo (R-Idaho) 

Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas)

Sen. Steve Daines (R-Mont.) 

Sen. Deb Fischer (R-Neb.) 

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) 

Sen. Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) 

Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith (R-Miss.) 

Sen. Ron Johnson (R-Wis.) 

Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) 

Sen. James Lankford (R-Okla.) 

Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah) 

Sen. Cynthia Lummis (R-Wyo.) 

Sen. Roger Marshall (R-Kan.) 

Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.) 

Sen. Pete Ricketts (R-Neb.) 

Sen. Jim Risch (R-Idaho) 

Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) 

Sen. Eric Schmitt (R-Mo.)

Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) 

Sen. Rick Scott (R-Fla.)

Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Ala.)

Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.)

Sen. JD Vance (R-Ohio)

Sen. Roger Wicker (R-Miss.)

Some of the not votes are no surprise.  Rand Paul, for example, is constantly on the goofball end of things. But some really are.

Both of Wyoming's Senators voted no in what was frankly probably solely a political calculation.  John Barrasso, who has given the deal some praise earlier on, is close to Mitch McConnell, or he was until yesterday, McConnell is a shrewd politician and Barrasso may live to regret crossing him. That Lummis joined him shows that probably both of them added up the votes and knew it was safe, for right now, to take this position as they'd be in the minority and the bill would pass, thereby the country being saved, but they could go home to voters they presume to be ignorant on the real meaning of what was at stake.

Indeed, that might be the case for almost all of these Republicans, which shows that they may frankly be pandering towards what they think the GOP base thinks, that being now safe to do.

Marco Rubio is a genuine surprise.

JD Vance certainly is not.

Graham is not, and maybe the only easily understandable person on the Republican list, to the extent that I know these various individuals views.

Nebraska's Deb Fischer, based on her dull Twitter feed, is not, but is a disappointment anyhow.

Of note, now Wyoming's Congressional delegation has voted with the Democrats they claim to despise the most.  I.e, Wyoming's far right Congressman voted the same way as Social Democrat Bernie Sanders.

As a minor aside, one "no" voter, by declaration, didn't vote n the House vote at all. Lauren Boebert of Colorado was absent.

June 2, 2023


President Biden signed the bill.

Repeated questions are in the naure of "who won"?  Well the American people did as the government won't slam to a halt, interest rates won't skyrocket, bonds won't descend to junk status, and massive numbers of Americans won't be unemployed in short order, including millions in the "let's default class" who didn't understand that they were in the group that would have been cast aside and discarded, some of them forever.

Sunday, May 21, 2023

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XII. Holding back the tide.


February 14, 2023

Freshman Congressman Harriet Hageman introduced the companion bill to a doomed bill introduced in the Senate by Cynthia Lummis, which provides:

117th CONGRESS

1st Session

H. R. 543

To prohibit the President from issuing moratoria on leasing and permitting energy and minerals on certain Federal land, and for other purposes.

IN THE HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES

January 28, 2021

Ms. Herrell (for herself, Mr. McCarthy, Mr. Scalise, Mr. Westerman, Mr. Gosar, Mr. Newhouse, Mr. Moore of Utah, Mr. Crawford, Mr. Young, Mr. Owens, Mr. McKinley, Mr. Sessions, Mr. Brady, Mr. Stauber, Mr. Stewart, Mr. Tiffany, Mr. LaMalfa, Mr. Curtis, Mr. Lamborn, Mr. McClintock, Mr. Roy, Mr. Smith of Nebraska, Mr. Reschenthaler, Mr. Calvert, Mrs. Bice of Oklahoma, Mr. Baird, Mr. Mooney, Mr. Rosendale, Mr. Hern, Mrs. Boebert, and Mr. Amodei) introduced the following bill; which was referred to the Committee on Natural Resources, and in addition to the Committee on Agriculture, for a period to be subsequently determined by the Speaker, in each case for consideration of such provisions as fall within the jurisdiction of the committee concerned

A BILL

To prohibit the President from issuing moratoria on leasing and permitting energy and minerals on certain Federal land, and for other purposes.

Be it enacted by the Senate and House of Representatives of the United States of America in Congress assembled,

SECTION 1. SHORT TITLE.

This Act may be cited as the “Protecting Our Wealth of Energy Resources Act” or the “POWER Act”.

SEC. 2. PROHIBITION ON MORATORIA OF NEW ENERGY LEASES ON CERTAIN FEDERAL LAND AND ON WITHDRAWAL OF FEDERAL LAND FROM ENERGY DEVELOPMENT.

(a) Definitions.—In this section:

(1) CRITICAL MINERAL.—The term “critical mineral” means any mineral included on the list of critical minerals published in the notice of the Secretary of the Interior entitled “Final List of Critical Minerals 2018” (83 Fed. Reg. 23295 (May 18, 2018)).

(2) FEDERAL LAND.—

(A) IN GENERAL.—The term “Federal land” means—

(i) National Forest System land;

(ii) public lands (as defined in section 103 of the Federal Land Policy and Management Act of 1976 (43 U.S.C. 1702));

(iii) the outer Continental Shelf (as defined in section 2 of the Outer Continental Shelf Lands Act (43 U.S.C. 1331)); and

(iv) land managed by the Secretary of Energy.

(B) INCLUSION.—The term “Federal land” includes land described in clauses (i) through (iv) of subparagraph (A) for which the rights to the surface estate or subsurface estate are owned by a non-Federal entity.

(3) PRESIDENT.—The term “President” means the President or any designee, including—

(A) the Secretary of Agriculture;

(B) the Secretary of Energy; and

(C) the Secretary of the Interior.

(b) Prohibitions.—

(1) IN GENERAL.—Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the President shall not carry out any action that would prohibit or substantially delay the issuance of any of the following on Federal land, unless such an action has been authorized by an Act of Congress:

(A) New oil and gas leases, drill permits, approvals, or authorizations.

(B) New coal leases, permits, approvals, or authorizations.

(C) New hard rock leases, permits, approvals, or authorizations.

(D) New critical minerals leases, permits, approvals, or authorizations.

(2) PROHIBITION ON WITHDRAWAL.—Notwithstanding any other provision of law, the President shall not withdraw any Federal land from forms of entry, appropriation, or disposal under the public land laws, location, entry, and patent under the mining laws, or disposition under laws pertaining to mineral and geothermal leasing or mineral materials unless the withdrawal has been authorized by an Act of Congress.

1. Can't pass the Senate

2.  Would be vetoed if it actually passed both houses, when there's certainly not enough votes to override a veto.

So why do these things?

February 20, 2023

Golden moves on path to all-electric in new buildings: To meet its #climate goals, this #Colorado city of 20,000 needs to crimp #methane combustion. It could require all-electric in new buildings by January 2024

February 23, 2023

SNAP, the Federal Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, ends this month.

NPR is laying off 10% of its workforce.

March 3, 2023

A Gold and Copper mine will open in Laramie County in 2025.

The United States Post Office is buying 9,250 electric vans from Ford.

March 13, 2023

Silicon Valley Bank collapsed Friday after a comment by a major investment broker regarding it.  The Federal Government is not going to "bail out" the bank, which has accounts by many wealthy investors.

President Biden is proceeding to authorize the Willow drilling project inside the National Petroleum Reserve-Alaska, despite protests over the proposed action.

March 28, 2023

Renewables produced more energy than coal last year.

Coal checked in at 20%, down from 50% in 2007, and it's declining.

This is no surprise here, we've noted the timeline of coal long ago:

Coal: Understanding the time line of an industry


April 2, 2023

It's the end of coal in the state.

Rocky Mountain Power has announced that nine of its eleven power plants will be using gas, rather than coal, by 2030.

And, once again:

As is to emphasize it, one of the remaining coal-fired plants will be Glenrock's Dave Johnson, where a third wind generating facility is going in.

April 3, 2023

Saudi Arabia and Dubai, and other OPEC countries, are cutting back oil production through the balance of the year.

April 13, 2023

The Biden Administration's proposed emissions standards will require 2/3s of all automobiles to be electric by 2032.

April 25, 2023

Fly Casper Alliance lobbies for city subsidy.

A new Natrona County Advocacy Group, Fly Casper Alliance, is seeking $50,000 from the City of Casper to help secure the present Delta (Sky West) flight to Salt Lake City.  The flight already receives subsidies from Natrona County, but this one time payment is hoped to help continue to secure the flight.

Related thread:

Delta receives a subsidty to continue serving the Natrona County International Airport

May 10, 2023

The big economic news right now, of course, is that the country is racing towards its debt limit, at which point it will default on its debts.

The whole idea of a debt limit was to put a cap on Congress' ability to borrow too much money. The problem is it didn't work out that way.  Sort of like a spending limit on a credit card, it just caps off the debt, but the problem is, unlike a credit card, when you go to present it to the person you are buying something from, your credit isn't declined.  You get the thing anyway, and then later just don't have the ability to pay for it.

So it works instead, like buying a house, for example, or a car, you couldn't afford.

In order to really have teeth, there'd have to be a third body, like the CBO, treasury, or something, that would just nullify bills authorizing spending over the limit.  Or, rather, a court would have to declare, before things were spent, that there was a freeze on spending as Congress didn't have the statutory authority to make the spending.  

A balanced budget amendment to the Constitution, frankly, would work significantly better.

It does serve to cause the spending entities to have to get together, but they don't do it honestly.  Basically what we have going on is something akin to a couple at a banquet who have overspent arguing whether they should take the Bud Light off the table, while they're leaving the Dom Pérignon on.  Or, rather, it's like a husband that has a job as Mini Mart clerks, but the education of PhDs, arguing about racking up bills rather than going out and getting a better paying job.

If we don't get this fixed by June 1, the country is going into a massive economic crisis.

To add to that grim situation, the negotiations are in the hands of 1) one politician who is so old that he can recall when he went to U.S. Grant's kindergarten recitals, and 2) one politician who is so beholding to Trumpist "Club For Growth" Kool-Aid drinkers that he stinks up a room before he gets there.

If you worked at a company run this way, you'd look for a new job.  If you lived in a family run this way, you'd be looking for your own apartment.

This also serves, we might note, to recall the Jeffersonian warnings about democracy (and yes, we are a democracy, don't give me that "but we're a republic" crap, which is just what that line is, crap).  Jefferson warned that once the country ceased to be agrarian, the government would fail, as at that point it gave rise to feeding the mob.

The history of modern democracies has so far demonstrated that fear to be wrong, but it has also taken real crises in order to address largess.  The German democracy, for instance, beat up by the hyperinflation of Weimar era and the brutality of World War Two keeps a tight reign on its finances. The Japanese democracy, hit hard by the Japanese decline of the 1970s, does the same.

So far, the American democracy has shown no such tendency.  Congress won't address entitlements, which it must, won't address gigantic defense spending, which it must, and won't address raising taxes, which it must.

In that context, again, it's like a couple employed as Mini Mart clerks, both with PhD's, who are standing outside their apartment yelling each at each other about whether to upgrade the stereo on the Tesla they can't afford.

May 13, 2023

Mining sector jobs grew more than any other sector of Wyoming's economy last year, by 9.1%. This in spite of dire warnings by, well, folks like me.

UW's employees will be receiving a pay raise.

Ford Motors will no longer put AM radio in its vehicles.  Any of them.  Many other manufacturers are pulling theirs from electric vehicles.

May 15, 2023

Trump apparently said in his Town Hall on CNN that unless the Administration agreed to major cuts, the Republicans should take the country into debt default, a totally wreckless position that would destroy the savings of his constituency. 

Trump himself was responsible for major additions to the deficit.

Biden and the Republicans are set to meet again on Tuesday. Perhaps this slow motion process is part of his strategy, but its yet another example of government that is as slow as molasses.

May 16, 2023

The local paper is eliminating an edition, going to three print editions per week only and wiping out personal home delivery in favor of mail.

May 21, 2023

Nothing is being done about the debt ceiling while President Biden is at the G7. He gets back today.

If the US ends up with Trump again, this sort of behavior will be a lot of the reason why.

Footnotes:

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XI. The Waiting for a Train Edition

Tuesday, May 9, 2023

The 2024 Election, Part III. Spring shoots


April 20, 2023

The Natrona County Republican Party committee is challenging the anonymous authors of WyoRino to a debate.

WyoRino purports to rank Republicans on their true Republicanism, which in historical context means it rates them as populists, not Republicans.

Frank Moore, well known Campbell County rancher, is contesting for Frank Eathorne's seat as head of the party.

On the Presidential front, here's whose running so far:

Donald Trump. We all know who he is.

Announced: Nov. 15, 2022

Nikki Haley, who is discussed above.

Announced: Feb. 14, 2023

Vivek Ramaswamy.  Ramaswamy is a conservative businessman and well known, apparently, in conservative circles.

Announced: Feb. 21, 2023.

Asa Hutchinson. He's a well known former Arkansas Governor who is an outright opponent of Trump's.

Announced: April 2, 2023

Tim Scott, discussed above.

Testing the water, the names are.

Ron DeSantis.  He's been in the news a lot lately as the non Trump, Trump.

Mike Pence.  Vying for the role of the world's most boring man, he's clearly on the edge of announcing.

Chris Sununu.  Well known Governor of New Hampshire and an anti-Trumper.

Glenn Youngkin.  Somewhat known Governor of Virginia.

Kristi Noem.  South Dakota right wing Governor.

Liz Cheney.  We all know who she is.  She's been mentioned, but I doubt she'll run.

John Bolton.  Also a known name, but I'd bet Trump's former National Security Adviser turned Trump opponent won't run.

Chris Christie. Former Governor of New Jersey and clearly thinking of running.

April 24, 2023

Polls out just before the weekend shows demonstrate that an overwhelming majority of Democrats, save for African Americans, do not want President Biden to run in 2024.

He's simply too old to run, and people know it. This is true of Trump too, but the populist wing of the GOP, which has a grip on the GOP so far, refuses to recognize that.

April 25, 2023

Joe Biden has officially announced his candidacy.

It can't help but be noted that the US presently has a gerontocracy.  The Republicans were so bold as to run a Twitter advertisement about Biden's age earlier today, when Donald Trump is only four years younger.  Their politics aside, neither man should be in this position at their current ages.

Indeed, as I've said before, the odds are good that either one, or both, of these candidates will die of natural causes before November 2024.  There's something fundamentally wrong with the country such that the only leaders the country will consider are so far above the nation's median age which, at age 38, is actually old in historical terms.

May 1, 2023

Perhaps its assuming too much, but it is my assumption that Secretary of State Chuck Gray views his office as a springboard to the Governorship and that he otherwise really isn't interested that much in the workaday role of the SoS Office. Certainly, he's doing a lot to keep his name in the news, or it is i the news anyhow.

Gray spoke at the University of Wyoming in front of a newly organized conservative student organization.  I suppose that makes sense, but what really struck me was the prayer offered by Gabe Saint, a figure in the organization, prior to Gray speaking.  According to the Tribune, it went:

Lord, please be with Chuck tonight. He has been a blessing to Wyoming and fights fervently for righteous change and to bring back American values,  Be with him while he is in office. Give him grace and wisdom. Lord, we ask that you deliver him from his enemies, because he has many. We ask that you protect him as he takes on the Goliath that is the enemy in the form of wokeness.

I'm not sure what to make of that at all.

This is another one of those areas where I find myself between two poles, between extremes on both ends, and wishing it was 1923, and I was riding out to check my sheep on a mule.


On one hand, I do feel that the American left is getting, leftier, if that's a word.  So perhaps doing on this on May 1 makes sense.


Not every proposition of the American left is nuts by any means, and depending upon what thread a person reads here, they might conclude from time to time that I'm a leftist, which I'm not.  But in the social arena, the left has gone completely off the rails and it's absolutely frightening.  That's what the right is referring to when it uses the term "woke".

On the other hand, the populist right has gone full authoritarian scary.


There are days anymore where it feels like Spain in 1935, hoping it doesn't become Spain in 1936.

Where was that mule. . . 


Anyhow, one of the things about the populist right and the far left is that they both live in a fantasy land.  The far left lives in one in which science, religion and reality don't matter. We can all be our own personal gods and everyone has to acknowledge that.  If Robert Reich came out tomorrow demanding that people who think they are polar bears be regarded as polar bears, it wouldn't surprise me a bit.  The far right, on the other hand, lives in a world where Donald Trump is some sort of heroic founding father saint and the election was stolen from him.

Most Americans don't like fighting much, as most people don't.  That's what the "advancements" in social issues actually means, on the left.  It isn't, quite frankly, that people have bought off on a LBGTQ+ agenda, they just want to be left the crap alone.  Of course, living in a society in which things are left alone, if they are corrosive, corrodes.  But that's what that really means, more than anything else.  The thing the right misses is that most Americans are not on the far right.  They're more or less in the middle, and right now I think they're moving to the left in reaction to the Republican Party looking increasingly like it's like the España franquista to be the national model.

Part of that reaction is the baffling adoption of lies by the populist far right. The rank and file really believe them, and by doing so fail to realize that they're a minority and becoming more of one.  That's giving us this goofball 2024 election in which it is increasingly likely that a 177 Donald Trump will be accusing a 180 year old Joe Biden of being old. They're both old.

There's plenty to fault both of them for.  Biden hasn't adhered to his expressed Catholic values, which should disturb voters, as a man who won'd adhere to his deepest values at least raises questions.  But he has done surprisingly well with the situation he was left with, and he isn't Donald Trump, which is why he's likely to win that contest.

Trump is either suffering from some sort of mental issue or a liar, or both, but he's absolutely scary in his contempt for democracy.

Which leads us to the prayer.

Chuck Gray is a Catholic, and the Catholic faith doesn't cut much slack for serious lies.  

Catholics also tend to hold a fairly non compromising view of the world in certain ways, perhaps best summed up in this letter from the Second Century.
Christians are indistinguishable from other men either by nationality, language or customs. They do not inhabit separate cities of their own, or speak a strange dialect, or follow some outlandish way of life. Their teaching is not based upon reveries inspired by the curiosity of men. Unlike some other people, they champion no purely human doctrine. With regard to dress, food and manner of life in general, they follow the customs of whatever city they happen to be living in, whether it is Greek or foreign. 

And yet there is something extraordinary about their lives. They live in their own countries as though they were only passing through. They play their full role as citizens, but labor under all the disabilities of aliens. Any country can be their homeland, but for them their homeland, wherever it may be, is a foreign country. Like others, they marry and have children, but they do not expose them. They share their meals, but not their wives.  

They live in the flesh, but they are not governed by the desires of the flesh. They pass their days upon earth, but they are citizens of heaven. Obedient to the laws, they yet live on a level that transcends the law. Christians love all men, but all men persecute them. Condemned because they are not understood, they are put to death, but raised to life again. They live in poverty, but enrich many; they are totally destitute, but possess an abundance of everything. They suffer dishonor, but that is their glory. They are defamed, but vindicated. A blessing is their answer to abuse, deference their response to insult. For the good they do they receive the punishment of malefactors, but even then they, rejoice, as though receiving the gift of life. They are attacked by the Jews as aliens, they are persecuted by the Greeks, yet no one can explain the reason for this hatred. 

To speak in general terms, we may say that the Christian is to the world what the soul is to the body. As the soul is present in every part of the body, while remaining distinct from it, so Christians are found in all the cities of the world, but cannot be identified with the world. As the visible body contains the invisible soul, so Christians are seen living in the world, but their religious life remains unseen. The body hates the soul and wars against it, not because of any injury the soul has done it, but because of the restriction the soul places on its pleasures. Similarly, the world hates the Christians, not because they have done it any wrong, but because they are opposed to its enjoyments. 

Christians love those who hate them just as the soul loves the body and all its members despite the body's hatred. It is by the soul, enclosed within the body, that the body is held together, and similarly, it is by the Christians, detained in the world as in a prison, that the world is held together. The soul, though immortal, has a mortal dwelling place; and Christians also live for a time amidst perishable things, while awaiting the freedom from change and decay that will be theirs in heaven. As the soul benefits from the deprivation of food and drink, so Christians flourish under persecution. Such is the ChristianÂÂ’s lofty and divinely appointed function, from which he is not permitted to excuse himself.

 I don't know what faith Saint is, but his prayer strikes me as a sort of old time, classic, Evangelical one.  It actually reminds me a bit, and this isn't the only recent thing that's reminded me of it, of Theodore Roosevelt's 1918 speech in which he stated:

We fight in honorable fashion for the good of mankind; fearless of the future; unheeding of our individual fates; with unflinching hearts and undimmed eyes; we stand at Armageddon and we battle for the Lord.

Roosevelt stated that as he took his followers right into oblivion with the Progressive Party.

I'm not saying Gray and Roosevelt are co-political.  Roosevelt was a liberal Republican who became a radical one.  Gray is a far right populist.  I am saying that their branch of the GOP is probably taking it into political oblivious, however.

Anyhow, I'm not one to criticize a prayer as a rule, and I won't do so here.  People should pray for Chuck Gray, and for Governor Gordon.  But as part of that, for their souls and the courage to choose the righteous, honest path over the politically expedient.  Gray got his seat by flaming the flames of a fib, and that was expedient.  If he believes it, he's in serious need of reassessment.  If he doesn't, he should repent.

And as for ambition, and he's clearly ambitions, he should recall what was stated in Papal Coronation ceremonies between 1409 and 1963.

Sic transist gloria mundi.


May 3, 2023

Chuck Gray is starting to get a lot of questions about his out-of-office activities. Cowboy State Daily, which I'd regard as generally right wing, broke the news this week that 

Chuck Gray Skips National Secretaries of State Conference, Attends Gathering Run By Election Deniers

This occurred back in February.

Questions are starting to be asked about who paid whatever lawyer Gray used to try to intervene in the abortion suit that's pending in the 9th Judicial District.  It's a legitimate question.  Gray, who slammed his opponents' status as a lawyer, claiming she was aiming for the office for the pay (it probably would have been a pay cut in reality) has a lawyer on his staff, although I don't know that said lawyer was used.  Anyway you look at it, however, using state funds to pay for legal fees on an improper attempt to intervene in that suit raises legitimate questions about that being an improper act.

So far as Secretary State, we now know that Gray, who was previously employed in his family's radio business and who has no known outside work experience of consequence that's been reported on, has appeared as a witness in the legislature on campaign bills, went to the above referenced conference, appeared at a right wing event in Natrona County, and appeared at a right wing event at the University of Wyoming. This doesn't mean he hasn't been busy doing his actual job, but the state has never seen a Secretary of State behave in this fashion before.

May 7, 2023

Frank Eathorne easily turned back a challenge by more traditional conservatives for the leadership of the state's GOP, assuring that it retains a very Trumpist populist leader going into the next election.

May 9, 2023

Chuck Gray, who is clearly running for the Governor's office and using his newly acquired position of Secretary of State for that purpose, has proposed an administrative rule that would require investment brokers, broker dealers and securities agents doing business in Wyoming to disclose to their clients if they are using environmental, social and governance (ESG) principles in the course of their business. 

Chances are, none of them are, unless asked to do so.

This is pretty much theater and serves mostly to keep Gray's name in the news as a populist crusader.  It violates traditional Republican principals which would allow the clients of financial services providers to ask questions themselves.

In order for the policy to be implimented the Governor's approval would have to be forthcoming, which is unlikely, but which will serve to pit Gray against Gordon to the extent that they are not at odds already.

Gray claimed at the state's GOP convention, which Gordon did not attend, that he and his staff are working 18 hour days.  He also included the Democrats as part of a "troika" trying to keep consservatives from being elected in the state.  It's difficult to imagine that anyone actually thinks the Democrats are an influence on anything in Wyoming.

Laramie County paid its delinquent dues in an bid to end a feud with the state organization.

Last Prior Thread

The 2024 Election, Part II. What could go wrong?

Saturday, February 11, 2023

The 2023 Wyoming Legislative Session. The road ahead. (Vol 5).

 


I would have preferred that this thread not be split into five parts, but it's been a weird, political year, hasn't it?

That's reflected itself in the legislature.  I don't know if there's ever been a year when so many bills shave been introduced.  If there has been, I don't recall it.  Necessarily, therefore, a lot of them have died on the vine, including a lot that deserved to.  Nonetheless, a lot that should have died trudge on that weary path up the hill towards the Governor's Bic.


Well, here's hoping that many of them grow weak, fall off the side of the road, and pass on into legislative death.

Given as we're in a new phase of the legislature, I'm not going to try to run all the bills that have passed one house or the other, or which have failed. At this point, that's too burdensome.  But we'll continue to track the path of major bills, and where they're at.

February 9, 2023

The House amended HB 152, a new wide-ranging abortion ban, so that it will only take effect if the current "trigger law" ban is struck down by the Wyoming Supreme Court.

HB 152 contained language attempting to address constitutional concerns.  It now goes on to the Senate.  My prediction is that this will not, in its amended form, pass the Senate.

SF133 providing that high school athletes must compete in their actual gender, i.e., the gender of their DNA, passed the House.  This will pass the Senate.

HB 4, extending postpartum Medicaid, passed the House and is on to the Senate.

SF144, one of the two laws banning the surgical and chemical mutilation of minors in the name of changing their gender, introduced as Chloe's Law, passed the Senate with only 5 no votes.  Those voting no were Republican Sens. Fred Baldwin (Kemmerer), Jim Anderson (Casper) and Cale Case (Lander); and Democratic Sens. Chris Rothfuss (Laramie) and Mike Gierau (Jackson).  Case is a surprise given that he's very conservative, as is Anderson.

This bill is named for Chloe Cole.  Cole started taking hormone blockers at 13 and underwent a double mastectomy at 15.  Like Hines', she's become a crusader against underage mutilation in the name of "gender affirming care".

Another Illinois Ward bill, HB 143, bit the dust in what is becoming a legislative losing streak for the transplanted Midwesterner.  The bill would have prevented Wyoming from following World Health Organization and Centers For Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for COVID-19 restrictions.  The vote was 32-29.

Public COVID provisions are a big deal for the Illinoisan who left her state at least partially for such reasons, apparently under the delusion they had not applied in Wyoming.

My prediction is that this record of failure is not going to cause a reassessment of anything, including her relocation to Wyoming and importation of Midwestern views.  Freedom Caucus members will double down after the session and claim they were sabotaged by "Rino's", i.e., Wyomingites.

HB 154 allowing for permanent vehicle registration passed the House.

HB 188 providing for wolf depredation payments passed the House.

HB 47, which had gotten out of committee with two amendments sent over by Chuck Gray, who apparently has a lot of time on his hands in his new job as a public servant, was stripped of them. The amended House Bill 47 would have given the Secretary of State power to make decisions about the reliability of a county’s election equipment without the local clerks’ approval.

Gray campaigned on the stolen election lie and made supposed election security the centerpiece of his bid for the office of Secretary of State. Hopefully when the legislative session is over, he can get to his new clerical job of stamping filings and other things the office does most of the time.

February 9, 2023

And today, HB 103, a bill favored by Chuck Gray to prevent crossover voting, bit the dust.  Gray, taking time out of his busy schedule doing filings and checking on security interest priorities, testified in front of the committee handling the bill before it gave him the middle finger salute and dumped the bill, suggesting that his new-found role has not accorded weight to all of the state's legislators.

February 10, 2023


The gun 'em down trespass bill, which had passed the House, died in the Senate., not making it out of committee.

Speaking against the bill as voices of reason were conservation groups and a rancher, who noted that he had dozens of trespassers per year and though the bill was a bad idea.  

The person whose thoughts lead to the introduction of the bill, a person who provides church security in Buffalo, admitted that if somebody was dangerous they already did what was necessary to escort a person out, although that really fits into a different category.  It perhaps demonstrates why this bill was unnecessary at best.

February 11, 2023

A somewhat confusing story broke yesterday, in more than one Wyoming electronic news media outlet, reporting that the Wyoming Republican Party, or at least central figures in the party organization, are condemning HB 7, the bill that prohibits marriages, in its now amended form, under 16 years of age, and requires court permission for those below 18 years of age. That now amended bill reads as follows:

2023

STATE OF WYOMING

23LSO-0297

ENGROSSED

HOUSE BILL NO. HB0007

Underage marriage-amendments.

Sponsored by: Representative(s) Zwonitzer, Dn and Oakley and Senator(s) Case and Furphy

A BILL

for

AN ACT relating to domestic relations; amending the minimum marriageable age; specifying that marriages involving persons under age sixteen (16) are void; making conforming amendments; specifying applicability; and providing for an effective date.

Be It Enacted by the Legislature of the State of Wyoming:

Section 1.  W.S. 20‑1‑102, 20‑1‑103(c)(iii), 20‑1‑105(b) and 20‑2‑101(a) by creating a new paragraph (iv) and (b) are amended to read:

20‑1‑102.  Minimum marriageable age; exception; parental consent.

(a)  At the time of marriage the parties shall be at least sixteen (16) eighteen (18) years of age except as otherwise provided. No person shall marry who is under the age of sixteen (16) years.

(b)  All marriages involving a person under sixteen (16) or seventeen (17) years of age are prohibited and voidable, unless before contracting the marriage a judge of a court of record in Wyoming approves the marriage and authorizes the county clerk to issue a license therefor. All marriages involving a person under sixteen (16) years of age are void.

(c)  When either party is a minor sixteen (16) or seventeen (17) years of age, no license shall be granted without the verbal consent, if present, and written consent, if absent, of the father, mother, guardian or person having the care and control of the minor person sixteen (16) or seventeen (17) years of age. Written consent shall be proved by the testimony of at least one (1) competent witness.

20‑1‑103.  License; required.

(c)  Unless there is an order to waive the requirements of this section by a judge of a court of record in the county pursuant to W.S. 20‑1‑105, the clerk shall refuse to issue a license if:

(iii)  Either party is a minor sixteen (16) or seventeen (17) years of age and the consent of a parent or guardian has not been given.

20‑1‑105.  Judge may order license issued.

(b)  If either party is under sixteen (16) or seventeen (17) years of age, the parents or guardians may apply to any judge of a court of record in the county of residence of the minor person sixteen (16) or seventeen (17) years of age for an order authorizing the marriage and directing the issuance of a marriage license. If the judge believes it advisable, he shall enter an order authorizing the marriage and directing the county clerk to issue a license. Upon filing of a certified copy of the order with the county clerk, the county clerk shall issue a license and endorse thereon the fact of the issuance of the order. No person authorized to perform marriage ceremonies in Wyoming shall perform any marriage ceremony if either party is under the age specified by this subsection unless the license contains the endorsement of sixteen (16) years.

20‑2‑101.  Void and voidable marriages defined; annulments.

(a)  Marriages contracted in Wyoming are void without any decree of divorce:

(iv)  When either party is under sixteen (16) years of age at the time of contracting the marriage.

(b)  A marriage is voidable if solemnized when either party was under the age of legal consent sixteen (16) or seventeen (17) years of age unless a judge gave consent, if they separated during nonage and did not cohabit together afterwards, or if the consent of one (1) of the parties was obtained by force or fraud and there was no subsequent voluntary cohabitation of the parties.

Section 2.  This act shall apply to all marriages entered into on and after the effective date of this act.

Section 3.  This act is effective immediately upon completion of all acts necessary for a bill to become law as provided by Article 4, Section 8 of the Wyoming Constitution.

I've been waiting for the opposition to happen.

This bill sailed through the house and is in the Senate, and I'm frankly surprised that the opposition didn't appear before now. Not because the bill is a bad idea.  It's a good one, and it should pass.  Marriages lower than 16 years old are a hideous idea, and frankly marriage below 18 sure a good one.  Nonetheless, a similar attempt at banning such marriages failed last year.

The reason I thought it would fail is that there's some silent opposition from at least the members of one religion in the state, and I thought it might arise there.  But, it didn't.  The objections to have a religious tinge to them, but not from the expected quarter.

But it's also taken on a rather creepy tone.

Apparently the email, which wasn't published in full by the press, stated the following:

This bill may seem harmless, but there are concerns about constitutional rights that you need to form your own opinions about

And then it linked to a blog post which it endorses, stating that it's a succinct analysis..

The blog post is easy to find.  And it provides, in its entirety, the following (complete with photo):

HB0007 - Underage marriage-amendments

Sponsored By: Representative(s) Zwonitzer, Dn and Oakley and Senator(s) Case and Furphy

ESSENCE: "No person shall marry who is under the age of sixteen (16) years." PERIOD. END OF STORY. AND "Marriages contracted in Wyoming are void without any decree of divorce:... When either party is under sixteen (16) years of age at the time of contracting the marriage."

ACTION:

Write the members of the Senate and ask them to vote "NO" when HB 7 comes up on Monday's 2nd Reading.

Jim.Anderson@wyoleg.gov; Fred.Baldwin@wyoleg.gov; Eric.Barlow@wyoleg.gov; Bo.Biteman@wyoleg.gov; Brian.Boner@wyoleg.gov; Anthony.Bouchard@wyoleg.gov; Evie.Brennan@wyoleg.gov; Cale.Case@wyoleg.gov; Ed.Cooper@wyoleg.gov; Dan.Dockstader@wyoleg.gov; Ogden.Driskill@wyoleg.gov; Affie.Ellis@wyoleg.gov; Tim.French@wyoleg.gov; Dan.Furphy@wyoleg.gov; Larry.Hicks@wyoleg.gov; Lynn.Hutchings@wyoleg.gov; Bob.Ide@wyoleg.gov; Stacy.Jones@wyoleg.gov; Dave.Kinskey@wyoleg.gov; John.Kolb@wyoleg.gov; Bill.Landen@wyoleg.gov; Dan.Laursen@wyoleg.gov; Troy.McKeown@wyoleg.gov; Tara.Nethercott@wyoleg.gov; Stephan.Pappas@wyoleg.gov; Tim.Salazar@wyoleg.gov; Wendy.Schuler@wyoleg.gov; Charles.Scott@wyoleg.gov; Cheri.Steinmetz@wyoleg.gov

CONCERNS:

HB 7 denies the fundamental purpose of marriage:

Marriage is the only institution in Wyoming Statute designed to keep a child's father and mother living under the same roof and cooperating in the raising of any children that they, together, conceive. This is the NATURAL RIGHT of every child. As such, it is protected in the Wyoming Constitution (see. Art. 1, Sec. 3 and 23). Since young men and women may be physically capable of begetting and bearing children prior to the age of 16, marriage MUST remain open to them for the sake of those children. 

The sad fact that physical maturity often does not match emotional and intellectual maturity is an indictment of our modern educational system. That is a problem that should be addressed. But we should not use it as an excuse to instantiate bad law.

HB 7 denies parental rights.

Parents, by virtue of their right to conceive children, have the pre-political (i.e. God-given) responsibility to raise their own children. This right and responsibility includes guiding their own maturing children into the estate of Holy Matrimony. HB 7 strips parents of their right to consent to properly desired and well-ordered marriages when they are below an arbitrary age. Moreover, this arbitrary age limit is demonstrably lower than the historical norm of millennia of human existence. 

It is true that some perverse religions and cultures COERCE children to marry young, against their wishes. Sometimes, as in the case of human trafficking, this coercion comes from outside the family. Sometimes, it comes from the parents themselves. The Constitutional rights of children require that side-boards be in place to prevent such perversions. But those side-boards already exist in the form of written parental consent and judicial review of that consent. HB 7 removes those side-boards and replaces them with an arbitrary number that has no organic or essential impetus behind it. 

Comparison with other states:

Nearly all (49 out of 50 states) set the minimum age of legal consent at 18--just exactly as Wyoming does. Also like Wyoming, 46 of 50 allow people to get married below the minimum age if their parents give permission. Of these, 37 set the lowest age of marriage with parental consent at 16, while four (IN, NE, OR, WA) set it at 17, two set it at 15 (HI and MO), one (NH) sets it at 13, and two (CA and MS) have no minimum age for parental consent. 

In addition to CA and MS, 12 other states (AK, GA, HI, KS, MD, MA, NM, NC, OK, RI, UT, WV, WY) have judicial mechanisms that allow exceptions to the minimum age with parental consent. Some of these exceptions specifically name pregnancy, some prohibit age-differentials between the bride and groom more than four years. The sponsor testified that "Wyoming is one of eight states remaining, I believe, that do not have a minimum marriage age in statute" (AK, CA, MA, NM, NC, OK, RI, WV, WY and Puerto Rico). (Only California has both NO minimum age, and NO judicial mechanism.) The remaining 42 states set the absolute minimum age at 13 (NH), 15 (HI and MO), 17 (IN, NE, OR, WA) and 18 (KY and LA) and 16. HB 7 wipes away Wyoming's current mechanism for taking into account ANY special circumstances.

Testimony: 

Additionally, the bringers of HB 7 offer no evidence that Wyoming is facing any statistical uptick of coerced marriages. In the House committee, there was no testimony weighing the trade-off of parental rights over against any “significant issue” with child marriage in Wyoming. To the contrary, the sponsor of the bill openly admitted that “it is not what we would call a problem in this state.” On average 20 marriages per year under 18 and under in Wyoming. There was no testimony about the factual number under 16. Nor was there any testimony about why under 16 years old there should be no judicial exceptions.

Rather, the sponsor openly testified that the reason for bringing the bill is to “keep up with the Jones’” (i.e. 42 other states have put arbitrary age restrictions on marriage. After this dubious motivation, the testimony given in committee was fraught with hypothetical harms. For instance: “if a minor wants a divorce, she can’t hire of lawyer.” Or, “Minors might be coerced into marriage.” Or, “Minors, are not mature enough to marry.” All these cautions are already covered by current law that requires a judge to investigate whether or not the person is being coerced into marriage if that person is mature enough to legally consent. It is rather insulting to say that Wyoming judges are not up to the task that has been given them by law. But, that could be remedied by giving them legislative guidance or additional help. The responsibility does not need to be taken away altogether.

HB 7 violates the right of Wyoming citizens to marry.

Only a generation ago, people were regularly ready for marriage by the age of 15, not 16, and still today many Wyoming couples are celebrating their 50th wedding anniversary after having been married prior to 15. Article 16 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is pertinent, here. "1. Men and women of full age, without any limitation due to race, nationality or religion, have the right to marry and to found a family. They are entitled to equal rights as to marriage, during marriage and at its dissolution. 2. Marriage shall be entered into only with the free and full consent of the intending spouses. 3. The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State." As evidenced by the wide differences between states, the age of 16 is an arbitrary limitation that may serve as a general rule, but cannot be absolutely enforced without violating the "full age" standard of Article 16. HB 7 would arbitrarily strip away that right from people who actually have a legitimate reason to marry, and who desire to give their child a stable and loving home. This is unjust both to child and parents. 

FOR FURTHER READING:

Cowboy State Daily, Bill Banning Teens Younger Than 16 To Marry Passes Unanimously Through Senate Committee

Jonathan Lange, UNICEF Comes to Wyoming: Ham-handed uniformity oppresses the human family

PROGRESS:

1/13/2023 H Introduced and Referred to H03 - Revenue

1/17/2023 H03 - Revenue:Recommend Do Pass 6-3-0-0-0

Ayes:  Representative(s) Byron, Harshman, Northrup, Oakley, Storer, Zwonitzer

Nays:  Representative(s) Bear, Locke, Strock

1/18/2023 H COW:Passed / 1/19/2023 H 2nd Reading:Passed

1/20/2023 H 3rd Reading:Passed 36-25-1-0-0

Ayes:  Representative(s) Andrew, Berger, Brown, Burkhart, Jr, Byron, Chadwick, Chestek, Clouston, Conrad, Crago, Eklund, Harshman, Henderson, Larsen, Lloyd, Larson, Jt, Lawley, Nicholas, Niemiec, Northrup, Oakley, Obermueller, O'hearn, Olsen, Provenza, Sherwood, Speaker Sommers, Stith, Storer, Trujillo, Walters, Washut, Western, Wylie, Yin, Zwonitzer, Dan, Zwonitzer, Dave

Nays:  Representative(s) Allemand, Allred, Angelos, Banks, Bear, Davis, Haroldson, Heiner, Hornok, Jennings, Knapp, Locke, Neiman, Ottman, Pendergraft, Penn, Rodriguez-Williams, Singh, Slagle, Smith, Strock, Styvar, Tarver, Ward, Winter

Excused:  Representative Newsome

2/2/2023 S Introduced and Referred to S07 - Corporations

2/9/2023 S07 - Corporations:Recommend Do Pass 4-0-1-0-0

Ayes:  Senator(s) Barlow, Boner, Case, Scott

Excused:  Senator Landen

2/9/2023 S COW: Passed 15-12 (standing vote)

Aye: Case, Cooper, Anderson, Boner, Scott, Jones, Pappas, Geireau, Ellis, Schuler, Barlow, Landen, Rothfuss, Furphy, Bouchard

Nay: Dockstader, Baldwin, Kinsky, Hicks, Steinmetz, Biteman, Salazar, Ide, French, Kolb, Hutchings, McKeown

Absent: Nethercott, Brennen (chair), Driskill, Laurson

Note the photograph, presumably representing a teenage girl, was in the original,  I didn't put it up there.

The gist of the argument is several fold as being presented here and elsewhere, which is.

1.  The bill will make it impossible for girls younger than 16 to get married if they get pregnant.

2.  In the past such marriages were common and its only through the operation of negative modern societal institutions that they aren't now.

3.  There are lots of examples of such marriages working out.

All of these are pretty bad arguments.

First of all, let's try to eliminate the following fallacy:

Moreover, this arbitrary age limit is demonstrably lower than the historical norm of millennia of human existence. 

And:

Only a generation ago, people were regularly ready for marriage by the age of 15, not 16, . . . 

This is only true, ironically enough if you consider the source of this post, if you consider the pre Christian era. And in doing so, let's turn to one of our exciting incitfal posts on this blog:

Shockingly young! Surprisingly old! Too young, too old! Well, nothing much actually changing at all. . . Marriage ages then. . . and now. . and what does it all mean?

As pointed out in that insightful analysis, the "they used to marry younger" claim is really a myth.  Looking back over a century, we noted:

The median age for women was 21.6 in 1910. The same year, the median age for men was 25.1.


At the time the author wrote this entry, 2010, the median age for women was 25.0.  The median age for men was 26.7.  Data suggested that it had crept up a little over 1.7 years for women and 1.3 years for men.

Okay, that is a difference, but is that what you were expecting?

I doubt it, unless you are quite familiar with these statistics.

So, over century, the average age for "first marriages" has gone up a little under four years for women, and a little over 1.5 years for men.  Not that much of a climb.

 Indeed, when we went further, we found:

Let's take a table that somebody else has generated and see if it changes things at all:

Year --- Men --- Women
2015 ----29.2 ----27.1
2010 --- 28.2 --- 26.1
2000 --- 26.8 --- 25.1
1990 --- 26.1 --- 23.9
1980 --- 24.7 --- 22.0
1970 --- 23.2 --- 20.8
1960 --- 22.8 --- 20.3
1950 --- 22.8 --- 20.3
1940 --- 24.3 --- 21.5
1930 --- 24.3 --- 21.3
1920 --- 24.6 --- 21.2
1910 --- 25.1 --- 21.6
1900 --- 25.9 --- 21.9
1890 --- 26.1 --- 22.0

Okay, that doesn't take us a lot further back, but it also produces some interesting results.  If we go all the way back to 1890 what we find is that the median age for men was 26.1, and that it then went down a year by 1910.  It continued to go down until 1960, at which time it was 22.8 years.  That really doesn't fit with our picture at all.  If we'd been making this same calculation mid 20th Century, we'd be noting that marriage ages were going down.  Now, if this table is correct, the age for men is 29.2, way up from 1960, and about three years up from 1890.  From 1890 on, however, it took all the way until 1990, 100 hundred years, for the age for men to rise back up to what it had been in 1890.  For that matter, it took from 1890 until 1980 for the age to rise back up to 22.0 years for women, although its climbed dramatically since then. . . maybe.

And then. . . :

Let's look at 1850.

In 1850 the average marriage age for men was 28.

Um. . . 28?  Yes, we just climbed up over that in 2010.

And for women it was 26.  We got back to that in 2010 also.

It took us 130 years for the average "first" marriage age to get back to what it had been in 1850.

In other words, the claim, if we keep it back to the last two centuries, that there were vast number of sober, or giddy, middle teens getting married back in the day, is pretty much a flaming pile of cow flop.  In reality, before the American Civil War, back in that more agrarian and rustic era, your average bride was 26, and the average groom, 28.

Not exactly teenagers.

In truth, this has been the case since the Middle Ages, and that's no accident.  Examples of girls being married off were common in pre-Christian Europe, but not once Christianity set in.  And that's for a simple reason.  In most of pre-Christian Europe, women were basically chattel.  Girls were being sold into marriage.  "Look, Gunther, I'd really like that field and those cattle. . . how about taking young Ursula here. . . "

Ursula didn't have any say in the matter, including what followed.

After the Catholic Church, which was the only Christian Church at the time, being the first and original Church, came in, it introduced the requirement that Ursula had to consent to the marriage.  I.e, women could say no, and they started saying it in droves.  Marriage ages went way, way, up.

That's a lesson for us in a variety of ways, and plays into some other threads we have going on here, including the one about transgenderism.  Our modern pornofied culture isn't letting girls say no, now that it's barbarized once again, and they're finding a way to opt out.  That's another topic, but on this one, no, there really wasn't a recent era or even an ancient one, unless we go back to cultures and eras that hadn't yet received Christian missionaries.

Which points out why not knowing history is a bad thing in more ways than one.  Not knowing history consistently causes this inaccurate myth, and not knowing the history of discovering the metaphysical leads back to a narrow world in which marrying children as they're knocked up seems like a good societal idea to some.

The science is bad here too, as it's missing.  We now know that humans do not become psychologically mature until their twenties. Yes, they're able to reproduce earlier, but that's due to aboriginal conditions being part of our DNA.  Our DNA, in that instance, is hedging the bets in times of plenty, basically.  It's not demanding that you marry at 15.

Which gets into an undercurrent here.

There is a conservative, for lack of a better way to put it, or perhaps a religio-conservative movement out there right now that argues for really early marriage, although it's hesitant to do it openly.  Not early teen ones, but early ones, and its fine with teenage marriages in the upper ranges. Where that's concentrated in some, but not all, of its backer, you'll inevitably get; "and. . . well, if they're a little younger. . . that's okay" sneaking in.

Even the blog posts notes that there are "perverse" religious movements that push children towards marriage.

Written through the blog post is something else, but oddly it doesn't really come straight out and say it.  That argument is that some teenagers get pregnant, and younger than 16, and therefore, if they elect to get married in their child's interest, they should be allowed to do so.

That's about the only argument in here that makes sense in any fashion, but frankly the number of teens getting pregnant is dropping.  And, on psychological maturity once again, making that sober decision at age 15 or younger, a this bill would allow, is putting an immature mind in a bad spot.  While the post likes to gush about young marriages, as in:

Only a generation ago, people were regularly ready for marriage by the age of 15, not 16, and still today many Wyoming couples are celebrating their 50th wedding anniversary after having been married prior to 15. Article 16 of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights is pertinent, here. "1. Men and women of full age, without any limitation due to race, nationality or religion, have the right to marry and to found a family. They are entitled to equal rights as to marriage, during marriage and at its dissolution. 2. Marriage shall be entered into only with the free and full consent of the intending spouses. 3. The family is the natural and fundamental group unit of society and is entitled to protection by society and the State." As evidenced by the wide differences between states, the age of 16 is an arbitrary limitation that may serve as a general rule, but cannot be absolutely enforced without violating the "full age" standard of Article 16. HB 7 would arbitrarily strip away that right from people who actually have a legitimate reason to marry, and who desire to give their child a stable and loving home. This is unjust both to child and parents. 

most don't really work out. Sure some do, but they're the exception, and those people likely could wait a year or two and then get married, if they're that grounded.

What this all ignores is a couple of other things.

Nobody ever tends to note in these things that the really young marriages we see today, which are few and far between, are mostly concentrated in an immigrant culture where in fact younger women getting married, if not common (and it isn't) is still societally allowed.  Indeed, members of that culture feature in some of the statutory rape cases in Wyoming in part because of the 30-year-old guy 16-year-old girl thing still being societally tolerated where they are from.  The one marriage mentioned in the recent legislative debate noted a 16-year-old girl and a 32-year-old man, and I'd bet dollars to donuts that 2022 marriage fit into this category.  

That's usually not mentioned as its a cultural topic in a field where people do not wish to tread.

The other aspect of this that people are dancing around is the "shotgun wedding" aspect of such weddings.  They're really rare now, and frankly were really rare back in the day, but they fit into this general category quite a bit.  Indeed, back in the day when they did occur there was, probably more often than not, at least an element of that in most of them.

Which brings me to another topic I have a draft post on and haven't finished.  The other thing that was really common not all that long ago was for teenage girls to simply give the children up for adoption.  That option was humane and often gave the child a much better chance at a decent life than being raised by their mother, and it also gave the mother quite often a chance to avoid scandal.  The sense of scandal in our society has evaporated, but this is, at least, something that ought to be remembered.

The source of the blog post, by the way, seems to be a conservative Lutheran pastor, so he's not in the theologically extreme camp.  He is, rather, just highly conservative.

In other news, SF0034 Trespass by small unmanned aircraft., failed in the Senate.

Last prior thread:

The 2023 Wyoming Legislative Session. Bills start to advance. (Vol 4).