Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israel. Show all posts

Friday, May 10, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 5. A Wider War.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

War is an ugly thing, but not the ugliest of things. The decayed and degraded state of moral and patriotic feeling which thinks that nothing is worth war is much worse.

John Stuart Mill


April 14, 2024.

The Middle Eastern War.

This was mentioned yesterday, but in North America we're waking up to the news that Iran, the supplier of drones to Russia, used a huge number of drones in an airborne assault on Israel yesterday which was combined with missiles.

Because that's going to serve somebody's interest?

This was retaliatory in nature, of course, but it was also monumentally stupid on the part of Iran.

Almost all the Iranian munitions were shot down.  The few that got through caused minor damage. The US participated in the airborne defense.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine's defense chief warned that its battlefield situation has significantly worsened in recent days.

Mike Johnson, pick up your copy of John Stuart Mill.

April 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces destroy Russian air defense systems in Crimea

The Middle Eastern War

Israel has carried out a retaliatory air strke on Iran.  The details are sketchy at this time, but drones appear to be involved.

A big difference appears to be that Israel hit its targets, as opposed to Iran, which demonostrated an inability to get theirs through, although the US, UK and France helped Israel in its defense.

China v. US

A hacking campaign by China called Volt Typhoon has gained access to telecommunications, energy, water and 23 pipeline operators targeted, amongst other infrastrucure.

It should be obvious that China is preparing for war against the US, which will come over Taiwan.

April 19, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War/Middle Eastern War/China v. Taiwan.

Massively belatedly, the House of Representatives voted 316-94 to advance military aid to Ukraine, Taiwan and Israel.  A final vote will come on Saturday, as this was procedural.

Isolationist are having a fit and will now take a run at removing Speaker Johnson, the latter having found his courage this week, at long last.

April 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War/Middle Eastern War/China v. Taiwan.

After months of delay at the hands of a bloc of ultraconservative Republicans, the package drew overwhelming bipartisan support, reflecting broad consensus.

About bloody time, and better late than never, assuming it's not too late.

Finally, Mike Johnson, who apparently prayed about the matter, found his courage.

April 22, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

In listing to This Week, I learned that a majority of GOP Congressman voted against aid to Ukraine.

Shameful.

Some of the commentary on the weekend shows suggest that Speaker Johnson may have changed his mind in part because of intelligence briefings. If that's the case, we ought to be truly fearful of Russia winning the war.

MJT tried to insert an amendment into the bill which would have required all those who voted for the bill to become Ukrainian conscripts.

Middle Eastern War

Air strikes in Razah killed 22 people.

The US is imposing sanctions on the Netzah Yehuda Battalion, a unit for ultra Orthodox Jews, most of whom do not serve in the Israeli military and who are exempted from universal male conscription that the country generally imposes.

It's difficult to see how attempting to sanction a single unit would work.

April 24, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Pro Palestinian demonstrations are causing havoc across campuses in the US as protesters.

Anti-Semitic elements in these protests have been very notable, including delusional ones such as LGBTQ supporting protesters supporting, effectively, Hamas, even though Hamas would likely put a 9mm to their heads if they were in Palestine.

Stay tuned to see if the Horst Wessel song reappears.

Russo Ukrainian War

The aid bill passed the Senate 79 to 18.  Wyoming's two Senators, who normally would have voted yes, voted no, so they can bow down to the Populist Party.

Iran v. Everyone

Four Iranians were arrested for a hacking scheme aimed at Federal agencies.

April 25, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine deployed M57A1 ATACMS ballistic missiles against Russian targets in Crimea.  The new missiles vastly increase Ukraine's ability to hit deep into Russian held territory.


The sudden appearance of the missiles suggest that Ukraine was supplied them prior to the recent funding bill, which was only signed into law yesterday, but withheld use of them until the bill was passed.

Russia, regarding the bill, predictably squealed like a stuck pig or like Donald Trump complaining about being on trial for his prurient interest, while it itself has used long range missiles fairly indiscriminately in Ukraine.

Pope Francis in an interview with CBS News declared that a "negotiated peace is better than a war without end", calling on warring parties in Ukraine and the Middle East to negotiate.

Of interset here, perhaps, the Vatican recently released its "Declaration of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith “Dignitas Infinita” on Human Dignity”, the same appearing on April 8.  While I've noted it elsewhere, I suspect that Catholics in particular, or at least some Catholics, have grown so weary of documents issued by Pope Francis that they're being ignored and dreaded at this point.  Indeed, many Catholics are holding their breath on what will come out of the Synod on Snyodality.  Anyhow, Dignatas Infinita, which people were holding their breath on before it came out (it had been announced that something was coming out) didn't receive very much attention from the world at large and frankly from Catholics as well, as sure sign that just too darned much is being generated by this Papacy.

What notice it drew from Catholic circles tended to focus on the concept of "infinite dignity", and what that meant.  I haven't followed the results of that, and there wasn't that much discussion of it to start with.  The Pope, however, drew a lot of flak for his statements on transgenderism, which are perfectly in line with Catholic beliefs.  We'll deal with that elsewhere.

What surprisingly didn't receive much attention was his statements on war, which were:

War

38. Another tragedy that denies human dignity, both in the past and today, is war: “War, terrorist attacks, racial or religious persecution, and many other affronts to human dignity […] ‘have become so common as to constitute a real ‘third world war’ fought piecemeal.’”[64] With its trail of destruction and suffering, war attacks human dignity in both the short and long term: “While reaffirming the inalienable right to self-defense and the responsibility to protect those whose lives are threatened, we must acknowledge that war is always a ‘defeat of humanity.’ No war is worth the tears of a mother who has seen her child mutilated or killed; no war is worth the loss of the life of even one human being, a sacred being created in the image and likeness of the Creator; no war is worth the poisoning of our common home; and no war is worth the despair of those who are forced to leave their homeland and are deprived, from one moment to the next, of their home and all the family, friendship, social and cultural ties that have been built up, sometimes over generations.”[65] All wars, by the mere fact that they contradict human dignity, are “conflicts that will not solve problems but only increase them.”[66] This point is even more critical in our time when it has become commonplace for so many innocent civilians to perish beyond the confines of a battlefield.

39. Therefore, even today, the Church cannot but make her own the words of the Pontiffs, repeating with Pope St. Paul VI: “jamais plus la guerre, jamais plus la guerre!” [“never again war, never again war!”].[67] Moreover, together with Pope St. John Paul II, the Church pleas “in the name of God and in the name of man: Do not kill! Do not prepare destruction and extermination for people! Think of your brothers and sisters who are suffering hunger and misery! Respect each one’s dignity and freedom!”[68] As much now as ever, this is the cry of the Church and of all humanity. Pope Francis underscores this by stating, “We can no longer think of war as a solution because its risks will probably always be greater than its supposed benefits. In view of this, it is very difficult nowadays to invoke the rational criteria elaborated in earlier centuries to speak of the possibility of a ‘just war.’ Never again war!”[69] Since humanity often falls back into the same mistakes of the past, “in order to make peace a reality, we must move away from the logic of the legitimacy of war.”[70] The intimate relationship between faith and human dignity means it would be contradictory for war to be based on religious convictions: “The one who calls upon God’s name to justify terrorism, violence, and war does not follow God’s path. War in the name of religion becomes a war against religion itself.”[71]

These statements are not really novel, but they certainly call into question the concept of a just war, while not abrogating it completely.  This is interesting as well as certainly in the region itself the Ukrainian Catholic Church, if not backing the war openly, seems to be generally. 

I would note here something that's widely misunderstood.  Wars today, while they do feature civilian death, and Russia certainly has been indiscriminate in its use of airborne munitions on Ukraine, and Israel has been leveling parts of Gaza, is actually less destructive on civilians that it was some 80 years ago and that is the overall actual trend.

April 26, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Hamas proposed to lay down its arms if an independent Palestinian state, which we have a long dormant thread in the hopper on, were to be created.

More specifically, it proposed:

“a fully sovereign Palestinian state in the West Bank and Gaza Strip and the return of Palestinian refugees in accordance with the international resolutions,”

Israel is unlikely to accept that, but more than that, is such a tiny rump state even viable? 

Meanwhile, Hamas and Palestinian groups have shelled the construction area for the humanitarian pier.

May 1, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Russia and China are hosting a conference on "Palestinian reconciliation" which seeks to give Hamas a role in the West Bank.

The move is particularly cynical for China, which occupies a large landmass, Tibet, which was an actual independent nation with its own ethnicity more recently than Israel's gaining of independence and which further suppresses its Muslim population.

Further ironic are university protests across the nation effectively in support of Hamas which feature groups that, if they appeared in areas of their outright control, would be murdered.  A person can imagine that these protests are in support of Levantine independence in the region, or against Israeli actions in Gaza, but you have to jump through some uncomfortable hoops to get there.

May 2, 2024

Middle Eastern War

College campus protests in the US have grown large.

Shades of 1968, or something else?

Columbia has severed ties with Israel.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine will start operating F-16s after May 5.

May 3, 2024

Niger

Niger has invited Russian troop to encamp at an airfield used by US troops.

Middle Eastern War

Campus arrests in the US continued yesterday.

All of this is helping Trump, so the irony stands a good chance of being that the protests get Trump elected who 1) is more pro Israeli than Biden, 2) will be anti-Islamic, and 3) whose views on Putin stand a good chance of getting the US into a war with Russia when Russia invades a NATO country.

But, hey, protests are fun.  You can feel like you are really doing something, even if you aren't doing anything positive.

The UN reports that it would take until 2040 to rebuild the homes in Gaza that have been destroyed.

Given that Gaza isn't economically viable and a crap hole, it shouldn't be rebuilt, which should be obvious to all, but won't be as the Arab nations don't want the Levantines to move, and the Levantines are too politically juvenile to grasp that their future is elsewhere.

May 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are in Ocheretyne and Arkhanhelske.  Ukrainian forces have been struggling with a lack of artillery ammunition due to the circus in the U.S. Congress.

May 6, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Cease fire talks have broken down.

May 7, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli ground forces entered Rafah following a series of air strikes.

Russo Ukrainian War

It appears clear that the Russians are building towards a more pronounced offensive in the north.

May 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainian government has passed a bill to conscript prisoners.

Not a good sign, really.

The President has not signed it into law as of yet, and it doesn't allow conscription of those convicted of the worst offenses or having more than three years left on their sentence.

May 10, 2024

Middle Eastern War

Israeli ground forces entered actually only went as far as the crossing into Rafah, which they now control.  President Biden has indicated that the US will scale back military support for Israel extensively if Israel enters the city.  Israel has indicated that it intends to do so none the less.

The US has withheld a shipment of 3,000 areal bombs to Israel over the potential that they'd be used in Rafah.

And this concludes this edition.

Related threads:

Iron Domes and Chutzpah





Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 4. "Maybe I shall find them among the dead."

Tuesday, May 7, 2024

A Palestinian Solution (that nobody is going to do).



In this thread, I suggested a solution to the "Palestinian" problem isn't all that hard:


In reality, I'd partially already proposed it:


Those threads are pretty complete, but let's just set out the basic facts of the problem.

Part One:
  • The Palestinian Mandate's Levantines didn't want any sort of Jewish state or any sort of "two-state solution in 1948".  The neighboring Arab states didn't want one either.
  • World War Two made it inevitable that Jews would seek refuge in the region they'd held historically and up until 70.
  • The British tried and failed to create a two-state solution, and then washed their hands of the matter and left.
  • The Israelis won the 1948 war.
  • During the 1948 war, a lot of Levantines left out of fear, rational calculation of danger, or were expelled.
  • Just would have invited them back in, but the Israeli's were not in the mood for that, and the Arabs largely weren't either.  That is, having fought for it, the Israeli's decided to keep what they had in every sense, and the Arabs were still dedicated to the proposition of pushing them out.
  • That's now over 70 years ago and almost everyone involved in the original drama is dead.
Part Two:
  • The Arabs have been happy to support a Palestinian diaspora, partially, but not to invite them into their own countries.
  • The Palestinians have been unwilling to come up with a new, permanent plan, that doesn't feature, at a bare minimum, the territory that was at least partially in Mandatory Palestine.
  • Gaza and to a lesser extent the West Bank were solutions that Israel was willing to put up with, but not the Levantines, even as they took advantage of it.
  • The "Palestinians" have been , to a large extent, living on the Arab and Global dole since Gaza and the West Bank were created as entities subject to self rule. They don't have work, and they don't have much to do, other than to do, what people who have an income, but no work, do. . . . fill in the blanks here.
Okay now for the elements of the solution.

Part One
  • The Palestinian Levantines need work and need to be taken off the dole.
  • In order to do that, the pipe dream of an independent Palestinian state inside the borders of Mandatory Palestine needs to be given up on, unless Jordan, which is a Bedouin state, wishes to become that entity, and it doesn't.
So, what can be done.  There are two, and only two, possibilities.

Solution Number One.

The Palestinian Levantines can be taken in by the Arab states that have work, which would include the Emirates, Dubai, and Saudi Arabia.*

Yes, that's radical, but if they were taken in, taken off the dole, and got to work, within a generation or two, this problem would be over, and they would be better off.

Solution Number Two.

Create a Palestinian state in the Sinai.

That has obvious geoengineering problems, but the Israelis confronted those inside Mandatory Palestine and the states of the Arabian Peninsula have faced them as well.  It's been proven that you can geoengineer these areas productively.  It has been done.

And in that state, Gaza could remain part of it.

This, of course, would require Egypt to give up Sinai, but frankly, it's not making much use of it anyway.

Footnotes:

*And probably Jordan as well, as the West Bank was part of Transjordan and probably ought just go back to Jordan.

Related threads:


Monday, May 6, 2024

An uncomfortable truth.*

The US has been rocked in recent weeks by student protests over the war between Hamas and Israel.  The striking thing about it for me is how much this has turned, in terms of public opinion.

Even my own opinion has changed, but in the other direction. When I was young, I had quite a bit of sympathy with the Palestinian cause.  My views on it developed when I was old enough to not have any really good recollection of the Palestinian terrorist activities of the 1970s.  The problem to me seemed clear enough.  Israel had been established on British occupied territory without the clear input of all of the residents of that territory, and since then war had precluded the Arab residents from having a voice.

I don't really hold that view anymore.

Unfortunately, much of the world seems to.

"Palestine", as a political entity, has not been free, in a self-governing sense, since sometime . . . well It's hard to say if it ever was.  The word itself refers to the Roman administrative province that was imposed on the Kingdom of Israel.  Romes grip weakened in the 600s, with a Persian invasion taking Jerusalem in 614 and the Muslims invading and conquering all of the Levant in 634-638.

Note those words. . .Levant and conquering.

That's what the Islamic invaders did, they invaded and conquered.  Islam was spread by the sword.

We'll also note that this was a long time ago.

In the Levant, which is what we're dealing with, there were multiple religious groups and Christianity and Judaism remained strong.  Much of what Islam conquered were Christian lands.  Islam did not spring up there from fertile soil, it was imposed, but the other religions remained.

By the 1090s the Muslim principalities of the Levant were themselves coming under attack from other Islamic forces, the net result, without getting into all of the details, were the Crusades.  In 1260, in an odd event, the Mongols briefly conquered the entire region before they retreated due to a succession crisis at home.  The Ottoman's conquered the entire region in 1516-1517 and ruled it, in an increasingly weak manner, until the British Mandate was imposed at the end of World War One.

At the end of the 19th Century and the beginning of the 20th Century, the Zionist movement sought to reclaim the region that had been Israel up until AD 70.  The Ottomans both facilitated and opposed the movement.  It was gaining strength by World War One and took on a life of its own.  By World War Two (this is the 80th anniversary of the Biltmore Conference) it was becoming a mass Jewish movement of sorts, as Jews around the world reacted to the horror of the Holocaust.  

At the same time, Levantines in the region became increasingly hostile to Jewish settlers, fearing what was to become.  This turned violent on at least one major occasion before World War Two, causing the British to have to put a Palestinian Revolution that lasted from 1936 to 1939.  That movement sought independence, but it did so in part as Levantines feared that the growing strength of Jewish settlement movements meant that they'd be displaced on their own territory.

When the British ducked out in 1948 the Arabs and Israelis went right to war with each other, resulting in the fleeing of 700,000 Levantine's from the region, half of pre-1948 Mandatory Palestine's Levantine population.  That population, now enormously increased, sets up the current situation. Some fled because fleeing fighting armies is the rational thing to do. Some fled as they feared being killed by Jewish militias.  Some fled as, after Israel established themselves, they were expelled.  

The overall problem is that 70 to 80 years ago is a long time.

In the past 70+ years, those tragically expelled should have been productively resettled.  Some were, of course, but many were not.  Instead, the results of the 1948 war were rejected across the Middle East, which in turn made it worse by repeated incompetent efforts to militarily reverse the situation. The West Bank, for example, was lost in the 1968 war.  Movements supporting the Levantine cause, moreover, have been attracted not only to violence, but to extremism.

At the present time, Hamas wants to expel Jews from the borders of what had been Mandatory Palestine, a region that has existed as a politically independent area for, well, ever.  Hamas would impose radical Islam on the region to the detriment of not only the Jews, but to Christians, who remain in the region, and even to other Muslims.

There is, unfortunately, no reason to believe that there's any Levantine entity any less radical than Hamas.

A two-state solution for the problem is absurd.  Part of the ongoing problem is that the Levantines have been kept in postage stamp sized settlements not only by the Israelis, but by the non-Levantine Arabs, who don't want to take them in.  An independent Levantine state based on the West Bank would be dirt poor, radical, and a menace to the region's political stability.

And that's not what so many of them want. They want the borders of Mandatory Palestine, with its current Jewish residents expelled from the region for from life.

And that's what student protesters are actually advocating in some circumstances.  Both the Atlantic and the Guardian have interviews with a narrow selection of them who are basically comfortable advocating that murderous solution.   Levantine protesters in the US seem pretty comfortable with it as well, or at least not uncomfortable with noting that those they are supporting by implication are murderous rapists.

One of the uncomfortable truths of history is that wrongs of the past can't be righted, really.  Nobody can go back to 70 and keep the Romans from expelling the Jews.  Nobody can go to all the numerous localities where they were thereafter oppressed and murdered and keep that from happening.  Germans today seem remorseful for what they did from 1932 to 1945, but that can't keep the horror from happening.  The British today would not take Palestine as a mandate, but they did, and that's done.  And the expulsions and fleeing of the Levantines in the late 40s has already occured.

Like so many other things that humans imagine, trying to restore a status quo ante, long after that status quo has fled, only results in new horrors.  The Jewish desire for a homeland was rational.  That they'd desire a portion of what had been Israel (modern Israel is smaller than Biblical Israel) was also rational,  It's already happened.   A solution for the plight of the Palestinian Levantines needs to be found, and frankly isn't all that difficult to work, but neither a two-state solution nor setting an army of rapist and murderous lose in Israel is a solution that's either workable or tolerable.

Nor is it rational or tolerable to put up with people protesting for it.**  Students form the protesting base in any country in part, quite frankly, as a large percentage of them are essentially idle while not knowing it.  As a student, I imagined what I'd do once I was out of school, with a job, and finally "free". It turned out that what I did was worked and took on the responsibilities of adult life.  Freedom, in a certain sense, isn't what Janis Joplin claimed it to be, that being "nothing else to lose", but it is, in another sense, "nothing else to do".

In the 1930s, when Spain was in a violent crisis, a tiny number of people went there and fought in its civil war.  I don't admire the foreign volunteers to Republican Spain, who misjudged their cause and blinded themselves to what it was really for, but at least they did more than gum up classes.  Students yelling bear, ultimately, no real burden for their efforts. They're not Freedom Riders or the Abraham Lincoln Brigade.

And here, ironically, should they really have an impact, it'll be to bring to power in "Palestine" a group of murderous perverts, and to help bring to power in the US somebody whom they don't agree with on anything.

Footnotes

*Because I'm not a professional blogger, nor retired, I have a lot of posts, well over 100 in fact, that are in the hopper, some of which related to this.  I note that, as there's more coming, maybe, if I ever get around to it, on the crisis in the Middle East.

**Protesting against Israeli military overreach is something else entirely.  Israeli's are doing that.

This is a common feature, oddly, of protests.  It's perfectly rational, for example, to have been against bombing Hanoi during the Vietnam War, but that doesn't mean you need to appear on an anti-aircraft gun belonging to a communist army.  Here being opposed to Israel leveling Gaza is rational, pretending that Hamas is on the side of virtue is not.

Related threads:

The Palestinian Problem and its Wilsonian Solution.

Saturday, April 27, 2024

Saturday, April 27, 1974. Aeroflot disater, War of Attrition winds down.

An Aeroflot Il-18 crashed within site of the Leningrad airport, killing all 109 passengers. The Soviet press didn't report on the event, in spite of the hysteria which understandably broke out at the airport.


The last major fighting in the Syrian-Israeli War of Attrition took place.

Last prior edition:

Friday, April 26, 1974. A Portuguese military coup turns towards democracy.


Monday, April 15, 2024

Getting into other people's fights.

In our current era, there appear to be two ironclad rules of Republican politics.  These are 1) you criticize Biden for everything, and 2) you endorse Donald Trump even though he should be in prison.

On the weekend shows, specifically Meet The Press, one GOP personage back in D.C. blamed President Biden for Iran's actions in the shadow war between Israel and Iran.  The logic was that as Iran has been hitting US sites in Syria via Iranian proxies, we should have massively retaliated.

We have been retaliating.  The only thing we could do that we haven't would be to strike Iran inside of Iran.  That would have been over the top.  Now, that's exactly what this person wants us to do.  Irrespective of what Israel does, he wants us to hit Iran in Iran.

Isn't this the same party that chickened out in Afghanistan and surrendered to the Taliban (which interestingly doesn't like Iran) on the basis that we need to end "forever wars"?

So, we surrendered to one group of Islamic fundamentalist so they could establish a theocracy, and now we're going to take on another one?

Eh?

And why do we need to do this when it seems like Israel is pretty capable of defending itself.  Most in D.C. right now are complaining that Israel is going too far in Gaza.  That can be debated, but they certainly seem to be able to more than defend themselves, granted with U.S. material aid.

Meanwhile, a democratic county that is fighting one of the largest armies in the world can't get our  help, because Donald Trump is a fanboy of the autocratic opposition.

There's no consistency in this at all.  If it makes sense for us to get into a shooting war of some sort over the skies of Iran because they're a lethal annoyance that has staged a massive rocket attack on a democratic state, well then it makes just as much sense to do that in Ukraine.  Probably more sense, due to the civilian death toll that's resulted in.

If it doesn't make sense for Ukraine, it doesn't make sense for Israel either.

And let's be honest.  Ukraine isn't getting our aid right now because of Donald Trump.  That's the only reason.   Israel is getting help as it's always gotten our help, in part, but also because a certain part of the rising Evangelical populist wing of the GOP has certain millennial and religious ideas about that.

I'm not saying don't aid Israel.  And frankly, I'm aghast at the people who are effectively supporting Hamas, which is a brutal terrorist organization.  Nobody is looking at a long term solution, and there is one, but its Wilsonian and won't make every feel good.  What I am saying is that the GOP position right now is completely hypocritical.

Oh, and does the GOP dislike or like Taiwan right now?  I've lost track.  Maybe somebody better ask Don during a break in his trial.

Iron Domes and Chutzpah

“Iran lobbed 200+ missiles at Israel yesterday and we’re really worried that Israel will use this as an excuse to start a war”

What that lacks in intelligence, it makes up for in consistency: no matter what they are forced to endure, it’s somehow always the fault of the Jews.

Fr. Joseph Krupp on Twitter, with the quoted text paraphrasing the meaning of two Arab officials worrying that Israel will respond.

We should note that the Iranian assault was itself a response to the Israeli targeting the consular section of the Iranian Embassy in Syria to kill a senior member of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard.  Attacking an embassy is classically regarded as an act of war.

Of course, Iran and Israel have been in a shadow war for years. 

Israel should not have done that.  But the Iranian response was inept.  Since they engaged in it, there's been a lot of commentary to the effect that Israel should not respond.

Really? To an assault like that?  That's asking for a lot.

Basically, where this is at is here, by analogy.  If Japan, on December 7, 1941, had lost all of its aircraft carriers and none of the ships in Pearl Harbor had been sunk, or even seriously damaged, would Japan have been allowed to come back with, "well there, we certainly taught you a lesson, now let's not overreact".

I doubt it.

Lots of people are hoping Israel doesn't respond, and it might not.  Iran should certainly hope that, as its airborne offensive capabilities have been proven to be worthless against Israel and there's now an open question about what its defense capabilities are like.  If it can't stop a serious Israeli counterstrike, it's fresh meat for the dogs in the neighborhood.  "Oh look. . . Iran is bleeding. . . "

What this also shows is what Ukraine could do if it was provided with enough air defenses to take on Russian strikes. Russia's capabilities in this area really aren't much better than Iran's, and indeed, they're using Iranian drones.

Saturday, March 9, 2024

Thursday, March 9, 1944. Bombing of Tallinn.

The Soviet Air Force destroyed 53% of Tallinn, Estonia.

In terms of World War Two destruction, this isn't particularly remarkable, but it is well remembered in Estonia to this day, where the day is marked.

This is not to excuse areal carpet bombing in the Second World War. . . by anyone.  All of it, to my mind, fits into the category of war crimes. And predictably, the bombing of Estonia resulted in increased Estonian resolve to resist the Soviets.

President Roosevelt authorized Dr. Stephen Wise and Dr. Abba H. Silver of the American Zionist Emergency Council to announce: “When future decisions are reached, full justice will be done to those who seek a Jewish national home.”

The 5th Marine Regiment took Talasea in an unopposed operation in New Britain.

On Bougainville, Japanese counterattacks against the Army's 37th Infantry Division failed to make significant gains.

The Japanese 33d Division reached the location of the headquarters of the British 17th Division.  Gen. Cowan initially refused to believe the news.

The Red Army took Starokonstantinov.

The USS Leopold was sunk by the U-255 in the North Atlantic. 28 of 191 men survived.


Argentina's President Ramirez resigned and turned over the miltiary government of Argentina to Edelmiro Julián Farrell, who would in turn yield to Juan Peron shortly after World War Two.

Pedro Ramirez had come to power via a coup. The fascist leaning dictator had strong connections with Germany, having been trained in Imperial Germany in the early 1910s, and having married a German wife.  He participated in the coup of 1930, after which he had been sent to Italy to observe the Italian Army. In the 1940s he organized the Argentine  Milicia Nacionalista, later called the Guardia Nacional, and authored a program for a state ruled by the militia. In 1942, Ramírez  hewas appointed War Minister by President Ramón Castillo, and began to reorganize the Argentine Army.  During that time, modeling things after what had happened in fascist states in  Europe, the Guardia Nacional joined with a political party to form the fascist "Recuperacion Nacional".  He participated in the May 18, 1943, coup after being dismissed from his post.

Last prior:

Wednesday, March 8, 1944. Battle of Imphal begins.

Sunday, February 4, 2024

Monday, February 4, 1974. Patty Hearst kidnapped.

Patty Hearst, a grandchild of newspaper magnate William Randolph Hearst, was kidnapped from her apartment in Berkeley, California by the  Symbionese Liberation Army.  She was 19 at the time.

Hearst right during later bank robbery.

The group had first appeared in November when it had murdered Marcus Foster, the black Superintendent of Oakland Public Schools, and wounded his deputy superintendent Robert Blackburn.

The name of the entity, it might be noted, came from this, according to the organization:

The name 'symbionese' is taken from the word symbiosis and we define its meaning as a body of dissimilar bodies and organisms living in deep and loving harmony and partnership in the best interest of all within the body.

It's hard to seem how murdering public school superintendents fits that supposed goal.  Robert Blackburn, who survived his wounds, noted:

These were not political radicals, They were uniquely mediocre and stunningly off-base. The people in the SLA had no grounding in history. They swung from the world of being thumb-in-the-mouth cheerleaders to self-described revolutionaries with nothing but rhetoric to support them.

Emblematic of the times, the goof ball entity was a kind of sort of Communist terrorist cell that rapidly became disenchanted with "the people" after distributions of food, which it had demanded as a ransom in Berkeley, didn't go well.

In April, the group raided a bank in San Francisco, in which Hearst seemed to take part, although she denied doing so willingly. She nonetheless was convicted due to the actions and served two years out of a seven-year sentence before Jimmy Carter, ever the kind man, had her released.  Bill Clinton pardoned her.

In May the organization moved from the Bay Area to Los Angeles, where they got into a shootout at a sporting goods store where Hearst, on guard duty, fired shots.  A shootout a couple of days later at a supposed safe house killed six of them.

Hearst was arrested in September 1975, back at a San Francisco safe house.

Hearst, as noted, was convicted, but she claimed she had never participated willingly, and had been raped and threatened while a captive.  Given the nature of the SLA, that's certainly possible. Early on, however, after her arrest she had said that she comported her thoughts to theirs and was given a choice of being freed or fighting with them, and she elected to fight.

After her release, Hearst married Bernard Lee Shaw, a policeman who was part of her security detail during her time on bail.  They had two children.  He died in 2013.

The Provisional IRA bombed a bus on the M62 Motorway in England, killing nine solders and three civilians, including two children.

The Yom Kippur War resumed, but only as between Syria and Israel, with 500 Cuban soldiers joining a Syrian tank unit.  Fighting resumed in the Golan Heights.

Time Magazine featured Speaker of the House Tip O'Neil on the cover, with the caption "The Impeachment Congress.

Wednesday, January 31, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part I. New Year, last year's wars.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.


Only the dead have seen the end of the war.

George Santayana

January 1, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

This major war is now in its third calendar year.

Hamas Israeli War

The Prime Minister of Israel has stated that this campaign will carry on for many months.

An Israeli airstrike killed 35 in Gaza.

The U.S. Navy sunk three Houthi boats attempting to attack a merchant vessel.

Venezuela v Guyana border dispute.

Venezuela is conducting a joint arms exercise in response to the Royal Navy dispatching a ship to Guyana.

January 2, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A change in Norwegian law allows Norwegian arms manufacturers to sell arms directly to Ukraine.

How much of a defense industry Norway has, of course, is another matter.

January 3, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

An Israeli airstrike sent Saleh Arouri to the next world, where he will have to make an account for his actions.  An Islamic radical his entire life, he was the founder of Hamas' military wing.  

He went to his end in Beirut.

From ISW:

Israeli forces are transitioning to the third phase of their operations in the northern Gaza Strip, which will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed that it withdrew five brigades from the northern Gaza Strip on December 31. This reduction in forces is part of what the IDF has described as its third phase in the strip, which also involves ending major combat operations, releasing reservists, transitioning to “targeted raids,” and establishing a security buffer zone within the Gaza Strip.

January 4, 2024

US/Mexico Border Crisis

The Justice Department has sued Texas on over a new law that would allow Texas police to arrest illegal immigrants on the basis of their illegality. 

My prediction is that this suit will likely fail.

Hamas Israeli War

Hezbollah leader Seyyed Hassan Nasrallah warned Israel that launching a full-scale war on Lebanon Islamist targets would be "very costly," and that the assassination of a senior Hamas leader in Beirut would not go unpunished.

Sort of in the D'uh category.

Cont:

Islamic State v. Iran

The Islamic State claimed responsibility for a bombing attack that killed 84 people in Kerman, Iran.  The attack occured during a memorial procession for Maj. Gen. Qassim Suleimani.  The Sunni group regards Shiites, which most Iranians are, with Iran being a Shiite theocracy, as apostates.

January 5, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin signed a decree signed speeding up citizenship for foreigners enlisting in the Russian army.

Somalian Civil War

From ISW: 

Ethiopia signed a memorandum of understanding with the de facto independent Somaliland Republic, a breakaway region of Somalia, to lease a naval port that will give it Red Sea access in exchange for formally recognizing Somaliland.

January 7, 2024

The Korean Conflict

North Korea issued one of its threatening proclamations through Communist princess Kim Yo Jong.

These are moronic, as without China, and North Korea cannot really depend on China, South Korea would be eliminated as an entity in the event of war.

South Korea may soon not be able to fill its conscript levies due to a declining population.

Russo Ukrainian War

Japan's foreign minister visited Ukraine.

Russia seems to have resumed its strategy of attempting localized offensives that degrade its own forces.

The Ukrainians have been conducting a drone offensive against targets in Crimea.

January 9, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

News reports hold that Russia has deployed 35,000 men of the Russian National Guard, some equipped with World War Two vintage rifles, to occupied regions of Ukraine as security forces.

January 10, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Anthony Blinken has indicated the US rejects the concept of resettling the Gazan Levantines from that area even though, of course, its an untenable ghetto. 

Iran v. The West

Iranian backed Houthis launched 50 drones at shipping today, all of which were shot down by the U.S. Navy and Royal Navy.

Iran is using the current Hamas Israeli War as a pretext to try to advance its interest in the region.

January 11, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

The US and UK hit targets with missiles inside of Yemen, from which Houthi drone strikes have been coming. A Houthi spokesman actually complained about it.

January 12, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

From ISW:

Mexican Border Crisis.

The State of Texas, using the Texas National Guard, has seized Shelby Park in Eagle Pass in order to prevent Federal authorities from processing migrants.

January 13, 2024

Hamas Israeli War.

The US struck Houthi targets again yesterday.

Turkey v. Kurds

Turkish air raids struck Kurdish militant targets in Metina, Hakurk, Gara and Qandil in northern Iraq. This was in retaliation for a Kurdish attack on a Turkish base in Iraq.

January 16, 2024

Iran v Everyone

Iran’s Revolutionary Guards launched missile attacks in Syria and in Iraq’s Kurdistan region yesterday.

Korean Conflict

The North Korean Communist Clown state announced it is no longer pursuing reconciliation with South Korea, which actually dovetails nicely with general younger South Korean desires.

There's speculation on why this was announced, but in reality, any reunion between the countries at this point makes the ongoing Communist monarchy in North Korean irrelevant in every fashion so quickly, it isn't funny.

January 17, 2024

Hamas Israeli War/Iran v Everyone

The US is placing the Houthi's back on the terrorist list.

Iran v. Everyone

Iran conducted missile strikes on a Sunni militia site in Pakistan.

January 18, 2024

Hamas Israeli War/Iran v Everyone

The US conducted a fourth round of strikes on the Houthis.

Pakistan v. Baloch militants.

Pakistan conducted strikes inside Iran against Baloch militants.

January 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Estonian state will not extend the residence permit of the head of the Estonian Orthodox Church (Russian Orthodox Church in Estonia) of the Moscow Patriarchate, Metropolitan Yevgeniy, whose civil name is Valeri Reshetnikov, because his activities are a security threat to Estonia

Estonian government.

Cont:

The Middle East

Somebody (probably Israel) hit Iranian Revolutionary Guard figures inside of Syria.  In turn, US sites in Iraq were hit.by Iranian backed militia's.

Iran is the common thread here. 

January 21, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a two state solution for Gaza.

This is widely seen as a terrible thing to have done, but frankly, Gaza isn't viable as an isolated political unit and always has depended on economic support from the outside to get by. Geographically, it should be part of Israel or Egypt, and that's a simple economic and topographic fact.  It shouldn't be part of another state.

For that matter, a Palestinian state makes little to no sense.  It would be minute.

Those are the rough, real facts to deal with.  Levantines that live within the borders of what had been pre-1948 Palestine either have to live within Israel, realistically, or be relocated in some instances to an Arab state that could host them, none of which are willing to do it.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zylenskyy expressed concerns about remarks made by Donald Trump regarding securing peace.

Concern is warranted given Trump's admiration for dictators and his increasingly erratic if not demented behavior.

January 22, 2024

China v. Taiwan

Recent statements by GOP candidate Donald Trump have risen concerns that his commitment to Taiwan, which has been a GOP hallmark, is low.  

FWIW, Trump raised Taiwanese semiconductor production as something the US should have done something about, seemingly failing to grasp that if it falls to China, we're in a world of semiconductor hurt.

On one of the weekend shows, it was recently revealed that Trump has a gigantic exaggerated fear of nuclear war.  He also clearly has a thing for strongmen.

January 23, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous nations are lining up against Israel and demanding a Palestinian state be part of a peace package, even though such a state, if within the boundaries of the former Palestinian mandate, would not be economically viable.  

Saudi Arabia, with a large landmass and a labor deficit, has stated it will not normalize relations with Israel unless a Palestinian state is created.

British and American forces hit Houthi ones again.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine conducted successful drone strikes against targets in Leningrad and Tula oblasts.

Boarder Crisis

The U.S. Supreme Court allowed Federal agents to remove razor wire on the Texas/Mexico border, but it is merely a ruling on a temporary injunction, so the actual ruling, in terms of the issues, means next to nothing whatsoever.

January 24, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Due to political infighting, the US is out of funding for Ukraine and the pipeline is therefore shut.

January 25, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

From ISW:

Israel proposed a two-month pause in fighting in exchange for Hamas releasing over several phases the remaining hostages held in the Gaza Strip. The first phase would have Hamas return women, men over 60 years old, and hostages in critical medical condition. Israeli media reported that the "next phases" would include the release of female IDF soldiers, civilian males under the age of 60, Israeli male soldiers, and the bodies of hostages. An anonymous Israeli official told an Israeli journalist that the proposal includes redeploying the IDF out of main population centers in the Gaza Strip to allow Palestinian civilians to return to these areas. The official added that this proposal does not include the release of all 6,000 Palestinian prisoners from Israeli prisons.

This would be a major concession from Israel, but it doesn't seem to have generated much news.

Russo Ukrainian War

A Russian Il-76 military transporting Ukrainian POWs for an exchange crashed in Yablonovo, Belgorod Oblast. The Russians have accused Ukraine of shooting it down.

Patriarch Krill urged the Russian government to extend the draft deferment for fathers, now set at fathers with four children, down to father's with three, out of concern for the declining Russian population.

Slovakia, whose current government is close to Putin, pleadged support for the integrity of Ukraine's internationally recognized borders.

Middle East

Houthi's attempted to attack U.S. Navy escorts with ballistic missiles unsuccessfully.

US/Mexico Border

An attempt in Congress to get a bill passed to address the border is stalled with Donald Trump now entering the picture, opposing it, something that is hard not to be quite skeptical about.

This will messs up aid to Ukraine as well.

January 27, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

US/Mexico Border

January 27, 2024

Speaker of the House Mike Johnson declared that a budget measure that the Senate did pass providing aid to Ukraine and addressing the US/Mexico border may be dead on arrival at the House.

Trump appears to wish to preserve the border issues, and a second of today's GOP opposes aid to Ukraine.  An unresolved weirdness of populist and Putin, acquired from Trump, remains unresolved.

Also:

Governor Gordon Supports Texas’ Right to Secure its Border

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Gordon has issued a statement in support of border security Texas Governor Greg Abbott and Texas’ constitutional right to defend and protect itself in the face of the crisis at the southern border.

“I remain committed to a secure border, and to supporting states struggling with the ongoing security crisis along our southern border. That’s why Wyoming has offered resources and committed them to this effort, most recently responding to Governor Greg Abbott's  Emergency Management Assistance Compact (EMAC) request for law enforcement officers. I recognize the importance of secure borders and the vulnerabilities that a lack of resolve to securing those borders has brought to our country.

Secure borders prevent criminals and deadly drugs like fentanyl from entering our country and making their way to Wyoming. Wyoming stands in solidarity with Governor Abbott and the State of Texas in utilizing every tool and strategy to secure the border and protect American citizens. We are all border states now.”

Governor Gordon was also one of 25 Governors who signed a joint statement in support of Texas Governor Abbott and Texas’ constitutional right to self-defense.

Related to this, Denver Colorado reports it has an illegal/refugee populaton of 40,000.

Middle East

The Houthi's hit and set on faire an oil tanker.

China v The West

China’s intelligence agency has warned the Chinese to beware of “exotic beauties” who they fear are opserating as honey traps.

Intersingly, honey traps were a favorite Communist tactic for gathering intelligence.

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous Western countries have suspended contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, after it was learned that twelve of its members particpated in the Hamas attacks on Israel.

January 28, 2024

Picking up where we left off yesterday:

Hamas Israeli War

Numerous Western countries have suspended contributions to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency, UNRWA, after it was learned that twelve of its members particpated in the Hamas attacks on Israel.

The agency's head warns that UNRWA is collapsing given that nine countries have withdrawn from it and famine looms.

This is a tragedy, but it also tells us something about the UN and th total lack of viability of the Palestinian Authority's territorial regions, although of course a war is on.

Clearly, something needs to be done. That something, requires new oversight, and some hard decisions that nobody wants to make.

January 29, 2024

The Middle East

Three American troops were killed and more injured by an Iranian backed militia drone strike on a US base in Jordan.  The base is near the border with Jordan.

I was unaware we had any bases in Jordan.

January 31, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians have launched an offensive in the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part XII. γλυκύ δ᾽ἀπείρῳ πόλεμος. πεπειραμένων δέ τις ταρβεῖ προσιόντα νιν καρδία περισσῶς.