Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Nine. Rout

Ukrainian Christmas stamp.

November 11, 2022.

As amazing as it is to think it, it's actually the case.  Russia is being routed in Ukraine.

But maybe it's not really that amazing, except for one thing.  We'll get to that.

The last war I can think of, offhand, in which Russian forces performed really well was during the 1812+ stage of the Napoleonic Wars, keeping in mind that I'm very ignorant on the Crimean War.

That's 210 years ago.

The Imperial Russian Army preformed badly during the Russo Japanese War.  It had mixed performance during World War One, but in the end, the Germans defeated Russia.

Sure, the Red Army won in the Russian Civil War, but any army performs well in a civil war, if its truly fought out, as the other army is also made up of people with the same training or lack thereof.

It lost to the Pole is the Russo Polish War that followed the Civil War.

And tiny Finland fought it to a standstill in the Winter War.

Then there's World War Two.

Now, let's given credit where credit is due. The Russian Army killed more Germans than any other army in the field. . . and the Germans killed a lot of Russians too.

Indeed, with a massive numerical advantage it didn't really manage to get its act together until Fall, 1942, for the most part, although there are real and notable exceptions.

One of the things that those real and notable exceptions tell us, like it or not, is that Stalin did a pretty good job of reforming an army he'd destroyed in the 30s and giving it 11th hour backbone.

After the Fall of 1942, while it hemorrhaged deserters like sand in the hand, it preformed well, even though it preformed well as an armed mob.

But since then? What has it done well, really?

Hmmm. . . 

Afghanistan? 

Well, it lost.

Syria?

The Newark New Jersey police department could probably turn in a real performance there and look impressive.

Under trained troops, bad equipment, no doctrinal flexibility.  These are Russian things.

And the Ukrainian Army, having been reformed since 2014, is a Western Army.  It's more like the Army of Poland or even West Germany than Russia, now.

Ukraine has taken back its territory west of the Dnipr.

By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-2021).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source:BNO NewsTerritorial control sources:Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map / Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed relief mapISW, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

Slava Ukraine.

November 15, 2022

U.S. intelligence indicates that Putin may have delayed the Russian withdrawal from Kherson in order to attempt to preclude it from being viewed as a Biden victory.

If so, it's an interesting example of how Russia regards American domestic politics.

Today, Russia mounted a massive rocket attack on Ukraine, sending two missiles into Poland, where they killed two.

November 16, 2022

President Zelenskyy addressed the G20 and gave a 10 point peace plan which included a Russian withdrawal from all Ukrainian territory.  It can safely be assumed that Russia will reject this.

The missile that went down in Poland now appears to have been an errant Ukrainian one.

November 18, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

Col. Vadim Boyko, a Russian army officer who was head of a military academy and involved in Putin's conscription attempt, has reportedly committed suicide, although reports also hold he was found with five shots in his chest.

Russia pounded Ukraine with missiles again yesterday.

North Korea

The BBC reports:

North Korea has launched an intercontinental ballistic missile with enough range to hit the US mainland, Japan's defence minister says.

The West in general and the US in particular has dinked around with North Korea so long while it worked on this project that the result is that the American population is now vulnerable to an ICBM strike by North Korea. There's no doubt that North Korea will attempt to leverage this against the US.

No US President has been effective in dealing with the Communist Stalinist Theme Park under its current leadership.  As a result, a real question has now developed on what the US can and should do to protect its interests before North Korea is fully nuclear capable.

November 20, 2022

North Korea.

North Korea's dictator/monarch was photographed showing his ICBM's to his 14-year-old daughter this week, thereby actually confirming her existence.

The United States and South Korea have been conducting practice aerial missions.  I'd frankly regard a U.S. airstrike at this point on North Korea's nuclear capacity as not unlikely, although less than 50%.

November 23, 2022

North Korea.

Kim Yo Jong stated that the United States would face “a more fatal security crisis” if it presses forward with its plan to seek condemnation of North Korea's missile behavior in the UN Security Council.

This is a clear threat of violence of some sort.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian security forces raid the Pechersk Lavra Orthodox Christian monastery in Kyiv on the basis that it feared the monastery might be used for sabotage.

This points out the complicated nature of the relationship between the three branches of Apostolic Christianity in Ukraine. Before the war commenced, the Ukrainian Orthodox Church, which had been a branch of the Russian Orthodox Church, sought and received autocephalous status from the Greek Metropolitan of Constantinople.  This was condemned by the Russian Orthodox Church, which is the largest branch of Eastern Orthodoxy, and a schism developed.  Some of the Ukrainian Orthodox did not go along with the separation and remained subject to the Metropolitan of Moscow.

The other branch is the Eastern Rite Ukrainian Catholic Church, which is in communion with Rome.

The invasion of Ukraine was justified by Putin in part as being in defense of Orthodoxy. Russia under Putin has been highly resistant to social trends in the West and in part this is scene as an aspect of this topic.

November 24, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Russia has been concentrating on destroying infrastructure targets, energy generation in particular, the last several days.  The attacks have been massive in extent and appear to be motivated by the same mistaken reasoning that was behind the Blitz by the Luftwaffe and the Allied strategic bombing campaign of World War Two, that such efforts destroy civilian will to fight.

Iranian Insurrection

Protests have spread to the point where Iran is now regarded to be in a state of pre insurrection and the government is having to deploy armed forces in an attempt to address it.

December 4, 2022

El Salvador/Central American Criminal Crisis

The government of El Salvador deployed a huge number of troops and paramilitary police to enter a gang controlled area near the capitol yesterday.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainian Army has crossed the Dnipro.

December 5, 2022

Two Russian air force bombers were destroyed by an explosion on the runway at Engels Air Force Base, which is deep inside of Russia.  Explosions also happened at a Russian Air Force base at Saratov.

Speculation is widespread that these are a deep Ukrainian drone strike.  Both locations are near each other, and they have been used for strikes on Ukraine.  They are near Saratov on the Volga.

December 6, 2022

Russia continues to engage in massive missile strikes on Ukraine, but for the second day in a row Ukraine has hit back with a drone strike on an airfield, this time upon Kursk.\

These strikes contrast with each other in that the Russian strikes are against civil targets, while the Ukrainian ones are on Russian air assets.  Russian behavior is making it easier for Ukraine to hit targets inside of Russia without Western protests, and the Russians seem to be baffled as to how this occurs.  News about the strikes has come from Russian media, with the Russians seemingly being stunned that it's occurring.

What is not clear is the extent to which Ukraine can continue this, and whether these raids are essentially experimental.  If Ukraine can manufacture these long range drones in sufficient numbers, Russian air assets will have to be pulled back to more distant bases and logistical stockpiles in Russia will become endangered.

December 22, 2022

100,400 Russian soldiers have died in the war.

That figure is roughly twice the number of Americans who died in the very long Vietnam War, the last major war fought by the United States (yes, there have been wars since then, but not on that scale).  Added to that, in 1973 when that war ended for the US, it's population exceeded that of Russia's now.

15,000 Russians died in Afghanistan.

President Zelensky spoke personally to Congress this week.

December 26, 2022

Putin suggested he's ready for talks, while blaming the lack of talks on everyone else.

He's also hinted that the property of Russian oligarchs who are not supporting the war may be confiscated.

Russian assaults, which are not achieving much, remain unabated

FWIW, Christmas, on the Orthodox calendar, is January 7, 2023, on its liturgical calendar.  While I wouldn't put too much stock in it, if there'd be a calendar based timing for some sort of dramatic peace related event coming from the Russians, and I'm not saying that there is, that'd be a good date for it.

December 27, 2022

President Zelenskyy has indicated that he's relying on India to advance a peace proposal to Russia.

In spite of news of peace talks being a possibility appearing in the Western press, it's highly doubtful that any peace negotiations will start any time soon.

December 27, cont.

Russia today issued an ultimatum to Ukraine to accept Russian terms or the Russian army will settle the issue, according to Russia.

This would seem to suggest that Russia is on the verge of launching a new offensive and presumably it has some confidence that this one will be successful, something of which there is no guaranty.

December 29, 2022

Alexei Maslov, a senior Russian Army armor officer who had fallen under criticism, has been reported dead within a day of a meeting with Putin being cancelled.

Pavel Antov, age 69, a Russian sausage tycoon, fell to his death at an Indian hotel.  His friend, Vladimir Budanov, died at the same hotel four days prior.

An unusual number of oligarchs and Russian figures of note have died since the war started. Antov adds to the list, since the war commenced, that includes the following:

Leonid Shulma, age 60, by suicide. Igor Nosov, age 43, stroke.  Alexander Tyulakov age 61, suicide. Mikhail Watford age 66.  Vasily Melnikov age 43 Wife and two sons found dead beside him. Vladislav Avayevage 51. Wife and 13-year-old daughter found dead beside him Sergey Protosenya age 55, Hanged from a handrail, wife and daughter found dead in their beds with blunt axe wounds and stab wounds. Andrei Krukovsky age 33.  Fell from cliff. Alexander Subbotin age 31.  Drug induced heart attack. Yuri Voronov age 61. Gunshot wounds to the head, pistol found next to his body.  Dan Rapoport age 52.  Fall. Ravil Maganov age 67. Fell out of a hospital window.  Ivan Pechorin age 39. Fell off boat and drowned. Vladimir Sungorkin age 68. Stroke. Anatoly Gerashchenko age 72.  Fall. Pavel Pchelnikov age 52. Suicide. Vyacheslav Taran age 53 Helicopter crash. Grigory Kochenov age 41.  Fall from balcony during police search of apartment. Dmitriy Zelenov age 50.  Injuries sustained in fall.

That's rather odd.

December 30, 2022

United States v. ISIL

The US announced it has killed about 700 ISIL operatives over the past year, with this taking place in Syria and Iraq.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia continues its massive missle campaign against Ukrainian infrastruture, clearly intending to completely destroy it.

Last prior Edition.

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Eight. The one in which the Russian forces collapse and Putin puts his finger on the nuclear trigger.

Recent Related Threads:

The Man of the Year.

Whether the battle for Ukraine fills one with hope or with fear, Volodymyr Zelensky galvanized the world in a way we haven’t seen in decades.

Time magazine, on their choice to make Volodymyr Zelensky their Man of the Year.

I had no doubt he would be.

Odd to live in a year in which some in far off lands rose so bravely to the occasion, while others closer to home failed so greatly to live up to obvious standards.

What is wrong with the Putin supporting right?

Maybe the color of the GOP really should be red. . .

Monday, August 10, 1942. Churchill takes lunch in Iran.

Today in World War II History—August 10, 1942: Germans cross the Don River and enter outskirts of Stalingrad. Kaiser Richmond Field Hospital opens for employees of Kaiser Shipyard in Richmond, CA.

From Sarah Sundin's blog.  The Germans also took Maikop unopposed due to a Brandenburger Commando unit posing as NKVD troops, who ordered the Red Army unit there to retreat.

Meanwhile, the Battle of the Atlantic was raging, with U-boats taking impressive tolls daily.

In that context, on a day full of shipping losses, a heavily escorted British convoy of thirteen freighters including the American oil tanker SS Ohio passed through the Straits of Gibraltar headed towards Malta.  The Germans and Italians deploy submarines to intercept.

Winston Churchill, on his way to Moscow, stopped in Iran and had lunch with the Shah.

Wednesday, February 4, 1942. Men of miscalculation.

In North Africa, an odd event known as the Abdeen Palace Incident occurred, as was reported by Sarah Sundin in her blog:

February 4, 1942: In North Africa, British retreat ends at Gazala, Libya. Japanese take Ambon, Netherlands East Indies, from a small Australian garrison. British troops surround Egyptian palace in Cairo to force King Farouk to abdicate.

I'd note, FWIW, that I disagree with that date for the Japanese taking Ambon, I think it was February 3.  But the date for the British coup in regard to King Farouk is quite correct, although he did not abdicate.  Rather, he was forced to accede to a new government.  He remained the king for another decade.

King Farouk in 1946.  He as a member of the Turco-Circassian elite in the country, which owned 3/4s of the land at the time.

Farouk was, suffice it to say, an interesting figure who was the king over an interesting country.  He was of Circassian, Turkish, French, Albanian and Greek descent, meaning he lacked Arab or Egyptian genetic heritage.  His bodyguards were Albanians, the only people he trusted in that role.  His actual heritage was more Circassian than anything else, due to the presence of various Circassian slave girls in his heritage.  He became king at age 16 and never got along with the country's British representative, Miles Lampson.  He strongly favored Italians over the British.

Egypt had technically been an Ottoman possession until World War One, and after that was technically independent but was in fact a quasi British satellite with various treaty obligations to the British.  It was not a declared combatant in the war, but treaty rights in which the British had the right to station troops there to defend it meant that it was in fact a combat theater.  Beset by a complicated domestic travails, including the lack of a male heir, he lived a lavish lifestyle which, early in the war, caused him to lose favor with the Egyptian people who were aware that the British royals were sacrificing during the war.  His palace did not adhere to blackout provisions in Cairo.

The British exerted heavy pressure over who would hold office in the Egyptian government and Farouk generally yielded to them, but on this day their displeasure over the makeup of the government boiled over.  Farouk asked his military leaders how long they could hold out against the British if they refused British demands, and were informed that they could only do so for two hours.  On this night, the British presented Farouk with an ultimatum and troops surrounded his place.  Ultimately, they stormed it.  Farouk capitulated and a new Egyptian government was formed.  The British representative, unbeknownst to him, was lucky to leave with his life, as Farouk's body guards were hidden in the room, ready to open fire if he was touched.

Ironically, the event caused the Egyptian people to rally behind Farouk, who resented the obvious British termination of their chosen government in favor of one that would do the British bidding. Farouk did not rise to the occasion, however, and the event marked part of his slide into increased gross personal excess in every imaginable fashion.  It also marked a turning point in Egyptian politics as Egyptian military leaders became opponents of ongoing British presence, something that would ultimately lead them to depose Farouk and take over the country, with their rule effectively continuing on to the present day.

Farouk's popularity with Egyptians did not last, and he was deposed in 1952 as noted, spending the rest of his life in Italy.  The entire matter ultimately proved to be a British disaster.

As an aside, his sister, Princess Fawzia Faud, would be Queen of Iran in an arranged political marriage with the Shah of Iran from 1941 to 1948. The marriage brought Iran added status, not Egypt, as the latter was the more important state. That marriage ended in divorce.  She remarried an Egyptian army officer/diplomat and lived the rest of her life in Egypt, dying in 2013.

Also on this Wednesday, February 4, 1942, Hermann Goering met with Benito Mussolini regarding the invasion of Malta.  Mussolini wasn't impressed.

Suffice it to say, the day for German invasions had really passed.  The Germans had essentially concluded that it was incapable of invading Great Britain and had turned its eyes East, oddly partially, at least, for that reasons.  That of course brought about the invasion of the Soviet Union, which was not going well.  

The Germans and Italians were not going to invade Malta.

In North Africa, however, the Germans and Italians were doing fairly well, which perhaps gave rise to the delusion that they'd be in the position for a Maltese offensive.  On this day they took Dema, Libya.  British lines, however, were forming.

Lord Beaverbrook was appointed head of the Ministry of War Production, which had been created on this day.  He resigned after occupying the office for two weeks.  The Ontario native clashed with another figure in the administration and determined to depart the agency.

Thursday, January 29, 1942. Iranian alliances, Integrated blood, Desert Island Discs.

Desert Island Discs premiered on the BBC. The show invited guests on to imagine that they were shipwrecked on a desert island, but could bring 8 records with them, then featuring the eight.

The show ran throughout the war, and has been revived from time to time.  The concept remains a popular one in the imagination.

Indeed, at least for the stressed, being shipwrecked on a desert island, as long as you have food and some comfort, starts to look like a pretty good thing. . . for a while.

As we learn from Sarah Sundin's blog; 

January 29, 1942: Iran signs treaty of alliance with Britain and USSR, which promise to depart Iran 6 months after Axis defeat.

Iran frankly didn't have much of a choice but to agree, and the Soviets would nearly have to be forced out after the war.

Persia had been long part of the "great game", along with Afghanistan, played between the United Kingdom and Russia.  As it was between the two, its position was untenable during the Second World War, and it was occupied, as we've previously discussed, by both powers.

The New York Times reported, on the previous days byline, that Prime Minister Churchill was standing for a vote of confidence:

LONDON, Jan. 28 -- Debate on conduct of the war raged in Parliament today with a political fury quite equal to the fighting on the fronts. At the end of one of the longest single day's sittings that Parliament has had since the war began, there was little doubt that Prime Minister Winston Churchill would get a big majority in a vote of confidence that will close the three-day debate.

He survived the vote.

African American enlisted men, white officer, 10th Cavalry, April 1942.

The NYT also reported that:

RED CROSS TO USE BLOOD OF NEGROES; New Policy, Formulated After Talks With Army and Navy, Is Hailed and Condemned WILL BE PROCESSED ALONE New York Delegation Criticizes Separation as 'Abhorrent' to Founding Principles

Hard to believe this was a concern with some people.

Blood is blood, but the "mixing of blood" to mean the mixing of "races" had been a long fear in a certain section of the United States, with no quarter of it being immune.  Laws existed nearly everywhere preventing mixed marriages, although the degree to which they were enforced varied enormously.

Scientifically, it was well known and had been for a very long time that there's no difference whatsoever between the blood of various humans, not matter what their ethnicity.  Indeed, the concept of "race" itself is a false one, although it's still widely believed.  The genetic variance between various human populations is slight, and to the extent it's real, it's real between various populations that are grouped into "races" as well.  I.e, there's a genetic variance, albeit slight, between, let's say, Irish men and Italians, and so on.

As we've discussed here before, it's widely stated, inaccurately, that World War Two brought about a phenomenal change in regard to women in the workplace, and hence society.  It'd be more accurate to say that about the status of African Americans in American society.

Their place, of course, had been fought over and struggled over since the end of the Civil War.  The Compromise of 1877 had caused a massive nationwide retreat in the cause of civil rights in the country, but the issue had not gone away.  The creation of the Lost Cause myth, its strong growth in the early 20th Century, and increased mobility, had brought about the Great Migration in the second decade of the 20th Century. World War One saw African Americans volunteer to fight in the belief that their performance in the war would bring about a final leap to full equality, but that not only did not occur, the end of the war brought a racist reaction with the Red Summer of 1919.

Still, things were slowly changing, and the liberal administration of Frankly Roosevelt at least held the promise of the advancement of civil rights for African Americans.

African Americans had served in some numbers in the U.S. military since the Revolution.  Interestingly, the Navy had been originally integrated, as we've also discussed here previously, but the Army had been segregated since large-scale recruiting of blacks first occurred during the Civil War.  The Marine Corps had not admitted blacks its entire history, going into the Second World War.  Given the excellent performance of black troops during World War One, it would be natural to suppose that the experiment would have been repeated during World War Two, but in fact the Army was, at least at first, more prejudiced during the Second World War than the First.

In spite of having longstanding all black combat units, prejudice from career officers, often with Southern roots, meant that the Army declined to deploy them as combat troops. For the most part, the Regular Army black units were busted up into service units during the war.  African American sailors likewise were relegated to service roles on board ship, something that had been the case since the steel wall Navy replaced the wooden wall one.  Blacks were allowed into the Marine Corps as the war progressed, but again in service roles.  Only late in the war, when pressure from African American groups and combat necessity required it, would this start to break down in the Army.

Still, the fact that the nation went to war espousing the ideal of equality made the hypocrisy a bit too much for society to bear.  Integration of the services would commence in the late 1940s and there was no going back.  This was brought about, in large part, due to the ideals expressed in the Second World War.

Related Threads:

Blacks in the Army. Segregation and Desegregation

Women in the Workplace: It was Maytag that took Rosie the Riveter out of the domestic arena, not World War Two

 

Tuesday September 16, 1941. The fall of Reza Shah.

Reza Shah, the Shah of Iran, his country invaded and occupied by the United Kingdom and the Soviet Union in their interests, and what they deemed, ultimately correctly, the greater interests of humanity resigned in favor of his son, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. 

A victim, essentially, of World War Two.

The Shah had lived in an Iran that was marked by the post Communist variant of the Great Game.  Following the Russian Revolution, the British had intervened, unfortunately unsuccessfully, in the Russian Civil War through Iran, and in turn the early Soviet Union occupied parts of the country. Things had declined to such a state that the Red Army was making plans to advance on Tehran in January 1921, which caused the British commander in the country to elevate Reza, a half Georgian Persian Cossack commander, who soon used that elevation to effect a coup, although he held the position of minister of war in the new administration.

By 1925 he was in a position to overthrow that government, with the intent to create a republic on the new Turkish model.  Upon obtaining control of the country, however, he was dissuaded from that, to history's regret, by both the British and local Muslim clerics.  He curiously ruled thereafter in a Napoleonic fashion, being a liberalizing dictator.  He was a supporter of women's rights within the country.

An autocratic ruler who had come to power through the British and the Persian military, he could not endure the humiliating defeat by the British Army and the Red Army, and on this day resigned.  He lived the rest of his life in exile, dying in South Africa in 1944. His son would rule, of course, until Iran's Islamic Revolution.

On the same day, Iran broke diplomatic relations with Bulgaria, Hungary, Italy and Romania, all nations within German control, or within its orbit.

The Germans decreed that they'd murder 50 to 100 Communists as a reprisal for every German shot on occupied territory

Saturday, August 30, 1941. Far away places.

For various reasons, I missed putting up the Anglo Soviet invasion of Iran when it occurred.  It commenced on August 25, 1941.

Soviet cavalry meeting British tankette.

On this day, it concluded with a ceasefire. The country would be occupied by the British and the Soviets for the remainder of World War Two.

Russian T-26 tank in Iran.

The Iranian military did resist, but ineffectively. The country would be occupied by the British and the Soviets throughout the war, with the British withdrawing on time in March 1946 but the Soviets refusing to do so, citing security concerns.  A complaint to the United Nations from Iran on this became the first such complaint filed with that then newly founded body. The Soviets withdrew in May, 1946.

British troops inspecting a Soviet 26, Soviet soldier on deck of tank.

Ultimately Iran became an Allied power and declared war on Germany.  The US contributed to the forces in Iran during the occupation, which assuaged Iranian fears of being absorbed as a colony by the occupying powers.  The Soviets did sponsor Communist groups that did create problems for the Iranian government, so it cannot be claimed that the occupation was wholly benign.

The Soviets launched a major counterattack near Smolensk which was successful, as to its objectives, but which sustained high casualties. The Germans also sustained high casualties.

The British conducted the first of two small nighttime commando raids on the Pas-de-Calais.

Wars and Rumors of War. 2021

 

January 15, 2021

Israel v. Syria, Fatid Brigade and Iran

Last week Israel conducted an air raid on positions in Syria, killing 57 people. The raids were directed at the Fatid Brigade, which had recently received weapons from Iran, but the losses included members of the Syrian forces an another Iraqi militia as well.

What it's about:  The Fatid Brigade is an Iranian backed Shiia militia dedicated to the defeat if Israel, one of several such Iranian funded and equipped entities.  The brigade is made up of Afghan Shiias, an oddity in that there would seem to be plenty of fighting to do inside of Afghanistan itself if they were looking for a fight.  Syria has received Iranian support in its civil war and is an Iranian ally.

Who else is involved:  As noted.

What are the combatants like: All of the Iranian backed militias are serious units, but none of them compare to the Israeli forces and Syria is obviously impotent to prevent Israeli strikes.

Good guys and bad guys?:  The ongoing Iranian contest with Israel is really something out of the past which most Islamic countries in the region have de facto abandoned, if not officially abandoned.  The Iranians themselves would likely abandon it but for their radical political leadership, and the nature of the fascist government of Syria speaks for itself.

North Korea v. Everyone

North Korea revealed a new submarine ballistic missile yesterday, proving that nations that can't really do anything else, can still produce weapons.

What's it about:  It's about the world's only Stalinist monarchy keeping itself relevant.

Who else is involved:  South Korea and the United States are the North's most active opponents, but Japan is as well and most of the West in some ways.  China seems to back North Korea but its an ally that the North can't really trust to intervene in its affairs itself.  North Korea can also look to Russia for some support due to a legacy stemming from the USSR.

What are the combatants like:  North Korea's military can field some modern weapons, but in reality, the pathetic state of the nation's economy and seventy years of Communist demoralization make it a major menace, but not a serious opponent, for anyone.  Only the presumed backing of nearby China, which is probably a military threat to North Korea itself, keeps it propped up and a dangerous threat.

Good guys and bad guys:  North Korea has one of the worst regimes in the world.

January 28, 2021

Yemeni Civil War

The United States, now under a new administration, has suspended arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE pending review.

Both countries have been involved in the civil war in Yemen, an involvement that has been controversial in Congress.

What's it about:  Yemen has been unstable its entire history, and indeed was once two countries, one of them being a Communistic one.  Since 2014 there's been a multi party civil war going on with the Saudi and UAE backed government fighting a Houthi backed rival government, a secessionist movement, and ISIL.  Saudi support restored the government to power but has featured a Saudi air campaign that has resulted in largescale loss of life.

Who else is involved:  Players are listed above.

Good guys and bad guys:  Frankly, this regional conflict is hard to grasp in some ways.   The Saudi and UAE involvement is geared towards opposing the rise of fundamentalist Shiia powers in the region and ISIL, which also serves our interest, but their fighting has been traditional Middle Eastern, i.e., without quarter.

February 6, 2021

Yemeni Civil War continued.

The Biden Administration reversed the Trump Administration classification of the Houthi's rebels in Yemen as terrorist.

February 11, 2021

India v. China, continued from first thread.

Indian and China have agreed to pull troops back from part of their disputed border.

February 26, 2021

Syrian Civil War and Iraqi insurrections, continued.

The United States conducted an air strike yesterday on Iranian back militias that had conducted a recent rocket attack on US sites in Iraq.

India v. Pakistan

Indian and Pakistan have been in a state of hot and cold war over the Kashmiri border since their independence.  Yesterday, they announced a cease fire line to the surprise of everyone.

March 22, 2021

United States v. Iran

Intelligence reports have revealed that Iran has threated to attack facilities as the Army's Ft. McNair outside of Washington, D.C.  Iran has also threatened to target at least one senior officer in an attack.

What's it about:  The United States and Iran have been at odds ever since Iran's Islamic Revolution made it a theological state. As such, it's been hostile to nearly every state in the world that are not Shiite Islamic ones.

Who else is involved:  Nearly every country that isn't Shiite has at least some problems with Iran to some degree.  States that are highly at odds with Iran include Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.

Good guys and bad guys:  Iran has been a center of Islamic extremism every since its revolution and at this point is adverse to the desires of its own average citizens.  Indeed, the highly educated population of Iran has rumored to have seen a lot of secret abandonment of Islam over the last several years.

March 27, 2021

Myanmarese v. Myanmarese Army

Not really a war, yet, but certainly something in the armed strife neighborhood, back on February 1 the Tatmadaw, the Myanmarese Army, staged a coup and overthrew the democratically elected government.

Today, March 27, the army opened fire on protesters and killed over 100.  Protests have been continual since the Army staged the coup and show no signs of letting up.

Anyone here heard of Saigon in the 1960s.. . . 

Anyhow, this isn't looking good.

What's it about:  Burma, which is the older name for Myanmar, is basically a failed state.  A British possession up until the 1948, it chafed under British rule and was then occupied by the Japanese.  In the general sort of romanticized recollection of the Second World War, a sort of Bridge on the River Kwai image has come down to us, but its not very accurate. Originally administered as part of India, when separated out as a separate colony the British received next to no local support.  Efforts to recruit Burmese soldiers to a local army were a failure, and over 15,000 Burmese joined a Japanese supported army during the early stages of World War Two, although support for the Japanese rapidly dropped off due to Japanese brutality. Indeed, major Burmese independence forces that had been allied with the Japanese switches sides during the war.  The country was rewarded for its trouble by the British with independence in 1948, but like much of Southeast Asia the governments proved to be unstable.  In 1962 the then in power civilian leadership turned to the military to impose order, and the military ran the country from 1962 to 2011, fighting a number of civil wars in that period.

In 2011 the country returend to democracy and Aung San Suu Kyi was elected as prime minister.  Her administration has been a democratic one but was marred with repression of the country's Muslim minority.

Even as a democracy the Army has had an outsized role in the administration of the country, and 25% of the country's parliamentary seats have been reserved for it.  In addition to that, it has its own political party.  That party lost ground in the recent election and the coup followed.

Who else is involved:  The Burmese army has had support from China and Russia and in the lead up to the return to democracy it administered the country in a quasi Communist fashion.  The army is known to have consulted with the Russians and the Chinese just prior to the coup and both nations have refrained from criticizing it.

Good guys and bad guys:  Transitioning to democracy is generally a mess, something which tends to be missed by the Greenwich Village crowd, and few countries manage it without something to be ashamed of.  Myanmar has had a long and difficult road on its way there and the army, which has had support from the NEP Corporate Communist in China, and the Neo Tsarists in Moscow, is having a difficult time realizing its day is done.  It is done.

April 1, 2021

Ethiopia v. Oromo Liberation Front

The Oromo Liberation Front in Ethiopia killed 30 villagers in the Oromia region of that country.

What is it about: The organization seeks sovereignty for the Oromo people in Ethiopia who were independent as a practical matter up until the 19th Century.  They maintain that since that time they've been dealing with oppression and a legacy of oppression.

Who else is involved:  Presently no one.  At one time Eritrea and Somalia supported the group, but they no longer do.

Good guys and bad guys:  The overall cause of the Oromo's is something I know nothing about, nor do I know anything about their history, but killing villagers is inexcusable irrespective of the cause.

April 9, 2021

Iran v. Israel

Iran and Israel have been fighting a low level naval war against each other involving the targeting of ships.  Attacks up until last week involved limpet minds set above the water  line, which caused cosmetic damage.  Last week, however, Israel appears to have targeted and severely damaged a floating base for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard that was stationed off of Yemen.

What is it about:  Iran's theocratic government is dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the spread of Sunni Islam.  It has never been shy about using force in that effort although it has tended not to use full scale force out of fear of that being counterproductive.  Otherwise, however, it has generally openly acknowledged using any force it can and has sponsored a good deal of revolutionary and guerilla activity against in the region.

Who else is involved:  It's hard to know, but Israel generally has the support of Sunni states and the US in its efforts, although it may not at anyone time be informing them of what it is doing.

Good guys and bad guys:  Iran's theocracy is an anachronism that's at odds with its own people and nearly every state in the region.  It will ultimately fall but constitutes a danger to everyone in the region, and to some extent well beyond that, until it does.

April 11, 2021

And, following up on the item from the 9th:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran's underground Natanz nuclear facility lost power Sunday just hours after starting up new advanced centrifuges capable of enriching uranium faster, the latest incident to strike the site amid negotiations over the tattered atomic accord with world powers.

Hmmm. . . that's odd.

April 21, 2021

Chad v Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat

Idriss Deby, the President of Chad, was killed in action while visiting government troops fighting rebels in the northern part of the country.  His son, a general in the army, was announced to be the acting head of state.

What is it about:  Chad along with Algeria and other North African states have been combating the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat for some time. The rebels seek to impose a theocratic state in the region and are supporters of Al Queada.

Who else is involved:  The conflict is a regional one so many countries in North Africa have a role in fighting it.  France has troops in Chad supporting the government there.

Good guys and bad guys:  Hardly needs to be asked in this case.

April 22, 2021

Israel v. Syria

An anti aircraft missile launched in Syria landed in Israel near the country's nuclear reactor.  In return, Israel launched an airstrike on the Syrian battery.

What is it about:  Syria has been hostile to Israel since Israel's founding and, moreover, is allied with Iran.   The tension is heightened by Israeli's long occupation of the Golan Heights, which Syria lost decades ago in its fighting with Israel.

Who else is involved:  Syria is allied with Iran.  The two countries remain the most hostile Middle Eastern states towards Israel where as the majority of the states in the region have slowly come to accept its presence. 

Good guys and bad guys:  Syria's Baathist regime had a record of hostility towards its own people and is unrelentingly hostile to Israel in a manner which is fairly clearly standing against history and beyond reason.

May 11, 2021

Afghanistan

A bomb went off in Afghanistan yesterday resulting in destruction and lost of life.  Its target was a school that educated girls.  Nobody has taken credit and the Taliban denied any association with it.

What is it about:  Radical Islamist are hostile to the education of women. This is part of the overall struggle in Afghanistan, and its been a feature of radical Islamist groups everywhere.

Who else is involved:  Hard to say, as nobody is associating themselves with it.

Good guys and bad guys:  This hardly needs to be asked, but its important to note that NATO's departure is likely to give groups that have this same view a renewed strength in Afghanistan.

France

Not really a war, but a warning of one, a large number of signatures have appeared on an open letter originating in the French army predicting a civil war in France between the native French and Muslims in the country.  The letter portrays itself as an attempt to warn the nation and a promise that the French army will side with the native French.

This letter follows one from last month signed by 20 retired French generals.

Following publication of the letter, a French petition supporting it gained strength.  Polls show a majority of Frenchmen endorse its views.

What is it about:  Islamic immigration to France has been a hot button issue for many years.  Secularization has been a policy of the French government since the French Revolution, with breaks in it from time to time, but France has been reluctant to impose it on Islamic immigrants and in spite of the country being very secular, traditional France is never very far from modern France.

Who else is involved:  The extent to which this has support outside of the French army is unknown but its clear that a majority of the French are backing the views of the soldiers.

Good guys and bad guys:  As this is a warning letter, and frankly one that's not likely to come true, the question isn't really valid here, but it is a sign that France, which has been struggling to deal with this issue for years, needs to devote some more attention to it.

United States v. Iran

The Coast Guard fired on Iranian speedboats that approached US vessels.

Hamas v. Israel.

The radical Islamic group Hamas fired rockets at Jerusalem yesterday.  This followed clashes in the city between Israeli authorities and Palestinians.  Israel retaliated with air raids into the Gaza strip.

What is it about:  Hamas opposes Israel's existence as the overall cause, but the direct cause was a Hamas retaliation for Israeli efforts in Jerusalem.  Hamas is a Palestinian organization and makes up the Gaza government.

Who else is involved:  I don't know enough about Hamas to say.

Good guys and bad guys:  Israel, pretty clearly, but this sort of event shows how complicated the situation in the Middle East really is.  Hamas departed from Fatah in its goals in regard to Palestine and that's operating to keep this conflict going.

May 14, 2021

Hamas v. Israel

This has been massively expanding over the past few days with Hamas, which is politically in control of Gaza, firing 2,000 missiles at Israel, most of which have been intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.

Israel's military capacity grossly over matches Hamas' and Gaza exist as a Palestinian entity solely due to Israel's political calculations to allow it to do so.  The launching of missiles by Hamas is deeply immoral as it must provoke a retaliation by Israel and that will kill Palestinian civilians no matter how careful Israel is, which Hamas knows.

As of today, Israel has expanded its counterstrikes to include ground based artillery.  There's a serious chance that the Israeli army may invade Gaza.  As Israel deems it politically necessary that the tolerate the Gaza Strip as a Palestinian entity, and nobody who borders it (Israel and Egypt) want to actually occupy it, that is highly problematic, but it becomes more likely every day.

One thing that won't occur is a general Middle Easter war, contrary to the overblown commentary on this.  Egypt, which as noted borders Gaza, doesn't want it and doesn't want anything to do with it.  The Palestinian Authority, under Fatah has fought a war itself with Hamas.  Jordan isn't going to its aid, and has fought a war against Fatah when it was the only representative of the Palestinians.  Syria is more or less in a low grade war with Israel all the time and constantly ineffectual in it.

This leaves Israel a semi free hand as long as it doesn't go too far.

May 20, 2021

Hamas v. Israel

I'm not an unqualified admirer of Israel.  Indeed, quite frankly, had I been around in 1948, I'd have been one of the few Americans, seemingly, who would have held the opinion that forming the state of Israel was a mistake.  By 1948 the long Jewish diaspora, the history of the region after 70, meant that it had entirely too many ethnicities in it in order to have a state founded for a single ethnicity which was identified with a single religion a good idea.  Indeed, had I been around in 1918, and if I were British, I wouldn't have accepted a League of Nations mandate over the territory and would have instead proposed that it perpetually be internationally administered, a solution which likely would have been no more successful than the one that was imposed.

Be that as it may, the British did accept the mandate and during their period of governance they presided, reluctantly, over the immigration of the diaspora to the region which added to its native Jewish population, but at the expense of the local Arab one, a solution which caused them to be nervous and made them, quite frankly, susceptible to bigotry, sometimes violent bigotry. When the British threw their hands up and marched out in 1948 the result was inevitable. Israel declared independence, the Arab population refused to accept it, the neighboring Arab states didn't accept it either, and war broke out immediately.  That in turn caused most of the native Arab population, or at least the Muslim Arab population, to flee.

The native Arab population, defining themselves as Palestinians, put up an armed, and sometimes terroristic, resistance to the results of the 1948 war for decades.  Israel, backed by the United States, was able to ride it out.  The Palestinians turned violent against the nations that hosted them on two occasions, those nations being Jordan and Lebanon, and ultimately the remaining Arab states grew tired of them.  Israel grew tired of the war too and ultimately accommodated a small degree of autonomy for  the Palestinians in what had been the West Bank of Jordan and in Gaza.  Of note, you can take from that, that Jordan, which for years claimed the West Bank, was content to give it up to the Palestinians which meant that it didn't have to bother with them and Egypt, which borders Gaza, is basically hostile to Gaza.

The reason that I note this is that demographics change and a territory ultimately belongs to the people who occupy it.

Palestinian claims on Israeli territory today are completely moot in real terms, save for the growing Israeli Arab population.  So Hamas' claims on Israel are not only fanciful, at this point they're deeply lacking in justice.  Very few people in Gaza today ever lived inside of what is now Israel.  Fatah has accepted that, Hamas has not.  

That forms the background for what is now occurring.  Israel acted wrongly during Ramadan in excluding Muslims form a site important to their faith. There's no excuse for that.  And Arab riots in Israel, which got all of this rolling, were therefore to be expected.  But launching rockets from inside a city in reaction is wrong in every way.  It's a gross over reaction and it not only invites, but demands, a response that will kill civilians.  Hamas, by doing that, is murdering its own people.  It knows that.

Gaza only exists as an entity at all as Israel doesn't want it and Egypt doesn't either, and the global community feels that its more just to keep a hopeless city state deep in poverty than admitting its untenable.  

Gaza has 2,000,000 residents.  Israel obviously can't take in the city and doesn't want to.  Egypt could, but it doesn't want to and won't.  If it did, it'd largely clear out quickly.

And it should be cleared out.  There's no way to live there and there's no solution to its existence which makes sense. The government of Gaza doesn't even get along with the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank.  2,000,000 people are a lot of people, but realistically the only solution is to evacuate them and redistribute them to the other Arab states.  Those Arab states, however, won't agree to do that.

Gaza's residents, of course, could aid themselves by being realistic. They chose Hamas, and by choosing Hamas they chose an entity dedicated to deathly conduct and the invitation to rain death down on their own city.  Their situation is tragic, but the tragedy is all the more compounded as they invited it and refuse, even now, to recognize that.

May 21, 2021

Hamas v. Israel

This ended yesterday in a cease fire.

For some odd reason, the Press has declared that both sides could declare victory.  Israel's Iron Dome missile defense held up, with only a few Hamas rockets getting through, whereas Israel hit numerous targets in Gaza about which Hamas could do nothing.  It's hard to see how Hamas achieved anything, other than getting a lot of Gaza destroyed and some of its residents killed.

The details of the agreement are unknown.  It was brokered by Egypt.

A lot of criticism was levied inside the US, inside the US, at a supposed lack of US action to bring about a ceasefire earlier, but its really unclear what influence the US really would have in this instance.  Over Hamas, probably none.  Over Israel, some, but fairly little in this circumstance. Beyond that, a solid reason for the US to act isn't obvious, given the nature of the conflict and its localized nature.  Interestingly American left wing politicians were the most vocal in their views and somewhat with their sympathy with the residents of Gaza.

Those residents do indeed deserve sympathy, but the deserve a level of pitiful scorn as well.  Hamas led the city into the one sided conflict that invited retaliation on them and they should toss Hamas out, which there's no sign that they shall do.  In any event, at the end of the day, an overall solution to this problem is no closer than it ever was by all appearances.

June 7, 2021

Russia v. The United States

The weekend shows were full of discussion about recent cyber attacks on the US and their relationship with Russia, and to a much lesser extent, their relationship with China.  By and large, most of the discussion involved a lot of handwringing and discussions on how to harden American industry from such attacks and what we can do to force our enterprises to take steps to protect themselves and the economy.

Only on This Week, to the extent I listened, did the topic of a military response come up, which wasn't rejected by the administration representative.

I note that for something that should be pretty obvious, but seemingly isn't.  In unconventional asymmetric warfare, which is what this really is, its difficult to win through purely defense measures and only really unpredictable responses stand to succeed.

What is going on is this.

Russia has practically become a criminal organization but is treated by the nations of the world as a serious state, which it isn't.  It's army is large but obsolete.  Compared to its neighbors its population is now small and declining.  What it really has going for it, to the extent it has anything going for it, is a leader who is single minded, doesn't mind corruption at all, and who is willing to destroy his neighbors' economies rather than build a solid, non criminal, one of his nation's own.

We'll end up talking sanctions, but at some point in a war of state sponsored piracy, which is what this is, you have to take steps that are more direct.

The Golden Age of Piracy came to an end when the various nations of the world wouldn't tolerate it, including not tolerating state sponsored piracy.  Increased military action against pirates were part of that.  It should be noted that the era also featured a lot of private, direct, action.  

In other words, Colonial Pipeline's been hit. There's nothing that should keep it from hiring a U.S. company to hit Russian pirates back.  As they're sailing on the seas of the internet, they're vulnerable somehow.  

As Russia is involved, and Russia has assets, simply appropriating them directly and selling them for the benefit of the hit should be considered.  

And then there is military action.  If an electronic communication facility in Russia somewhere is used for this, I'm confident we've long had plans to take such things down and out.  Russia ought to worry about that, and worry about it to the extent that it stops this sort of behavior.  Or maybe a country with thousands of miles of pipeline ought to be made to be giving serious thought on how it would protect all them. . . physically.

Of course, by this point, it maybe can't wrestle itself free from crime.  Nobody really knows what Putin's relationship with anyone is.  He may be as much the slave of criminals as he is their benefactor.  Of course, he also controls the current expression of the KGB, so he can likely act if he wants to.

Anyway its looked at, from Russian interference in recent elections to these campaigns against commerce, this has to be brought to a stop.

June 15, 2021

United States v. Iraq

The Biden Administration is supporting a bill in Congress to repeal the 2002 act authorizing the use of force in Iraq.

As the administration has noted, the authorization is no longer needed as fighting in Iraq has largely concluded and what remains is not of the type requiring this sort of authorization.  

Additionally, bills like this, which shade the question of whether a war exist or not, are questionable in the first place.  The invasion of Iraq was a full scale conventional war which under U.S. law required a declaration of war in order to be legal.  While other post World War Two conflicts involving the US arguably did not legally require that, this fairly obviously did, so the legality of the war itself was called into question by no declaration of war having been issued, or sought.

June 15, 2021

Israel v. Hamas

No sooner did a new Israeli government form which stands to be much less hard line than the previous one than did the misguided bloody agents of Hamas launch, of all the really stupid things, an incendiary balloon attack on the country.

This predictably resulted in Israeli air strikes on Gaza.

June 28, 2021

Taliban v. Afghan Government

In the wake of the American withdrawal/surrender in Afghanistan, the Taliban is now advancing so quickly it's pace has surprised even itself.

Local Afghan militias, a feature of the wars in Afghanistan since the Soviet invasion, are forming once again to defend their local regions.

June 28, 2021, cont.

United States v. Iran.

The United states conducted air strikes on Iranian backed militias today on the Iraqi-Syria border.  These groups have been involved in drone strikes on US sites in Iraq.

July 1, 2021

NATO v. Taliban

During the last week, Poland, Germany and Italy withdrew the last of their troops from Afghanistan.  Like many people, I'd forgotten there were still non US NATO troops in Afghanistan.

July 2, 2021

Afghanistan

The United States has completely departed Afghanistan's Bagram Air Force Base.

As the US races to withdraw by the end of this month the Taliban is rapidly gaining ground and local militias to contest them have been forming.

July 26, 2021

Iraq

Apparently the U.S. military mission to Iraq will now be drawn down and conclude as well. The President is supposed to announce something to this effect today.

July 27, 2021

Iraq

And the President did announce that the US is withdrawing from Iraq.  In reality, 2,000 troops will remain, so there's actually very little that will change.

This is the second time that the US has announced a withdrawal from the country.  The first time was when President Obama did the same.  Events following that reinserted some troops, but they are now back down to a low level and will remain at that fairly low level.  The remaining troops will not have a combat role.

August 5, 2021

Iran v Israel

Iranian backed militias fired rockets from bases in Lebanon into Israel.  Israel has responded with artillery fire.

Related Threads:

Wars and Rumors of Wars

Saturday August 2, 1941. Silk Threads.

As the Today In World War Two History blog informs us, on this day in history the U.S. Office of Production Management restricted sales of silk to the United States government and also restricted the sales of rayon and steel. All were vital war materials, with the spider produced silk and synthetic rayon critical for parachutes.

Silk threads made from wartime salvaged silk.

This brings up one of the common tropes of the 1940s, that being GI's trading cigarettes and nylons for dates.  It shows up in movies all the time.  The interesting thing now, of course, is that "nylons" are pretty much a think of the past, I think.

This must reflect a change in the standards of dress. When women wore skirts or dresses nearly daily, nylons were a way of smoothing out the appearance of their legs for formal occasions.  Now, as women dress like this much less often, they seem to have gone by the wayside.  

I don't know the history of nylons or their predecessor silk stockings, but I wonder if the current situation isn't a return to an earlier standard. Even when women wear skirts now, I don't think they wear nylons very often.  They were likely a pain and their disappearance, for the most part, probably isn't missed much.

Silk was missed along with nylon for its civilian clothing use. Wool and cotton were the big fabrics of the era, but silk was common in some things, such as wedding dresses.  The trop of a parachute being taken for fabric for a wedding dress is another common one from the era.

On the same day, the U.S. extended Lend Lease to the Soviet Union.  

It would take some time for U.S. military products to reach the Soviet Union, but by the end of the war a massive amount of war material of all types was provided to the USSR.  We've dealt with this elsewhere, but the Red Army would not have been the same fighting force it was in the second half of the war without U.S. and British materials.  The Soviets received materials in every category, and its motorization can be largely attributed to Detroit.

Studebaker trucks on their way to the Soviet Union, traveling through Iran, 1943.

The United Kingdom called upon Iran and Afghanistan to expel German citizens.

The British were concerned about German advances in the Caucasus. It was theorized by the British that if the Germans continued to advance as they were, they'd end up taking the area to the north of Iraq and effectively be able to encircle, at some point, the British in the Middle East, although this may frankly have been a bit of over extended speculation.

Iran had declared itself neutral in the war but it was somewhat hostile to the British for traditional reasons.  It refused the British request.

Afghanistan, which actually had been flirting with the Germans, complied with the request and backed off its previous positions, which were geared towards trying to expand its territory and gain access to the sea. 

The Germans confiscated Norwegian radios.

February 26, 1921. Saturday drive.

Justice Louis Brandeis.

 

The USSR and Persia signed a non aggression treaty.  The treaty allowed the USSR to intervene in Persia if it was attacked and could not repel a foreign power on its own, a provision which allowed Soviet occupation of parts of Iran during World War Two.

The Christian poem by Myra Brooks Welsh, Touch of The Master's Hand was first published.  The poem is as follows:

'Twas battered and scarred,
And the auctioneer thought it
hardly worth his while
To waste his time on the old violin,
but he held it up with a smile.

"What am I bid, good people", he cried,
"Who starts the bidding for me?"
"One dollar, one dollar, Do I hear two?"
"Two dollars, who makes it three?"
"Three dollars once, three dollars twice, going for three,"

But, No,
From the room far back a gray bearded man
Came forward and picked up the bow,
Then wiping the dust from the old violin
And tightening up the strings,
He played a melody, pure and sweet
As sweet as the angel sings.

The music ceased and the auctioneer
With a voice that was quiet and low,
Said "What now am I bid for this old violin?"
As he held it aloft with its' bow.

"One thousand, one thousand, Do I hear two?"
"Two thousand, Who makes it three?"
"Three thousand once, three thousand twice,
Going and gone", said he.

The audience cheered,
But some of them cried,
"We just don't understand."
"What changed its' worth?"
Swift came the reply.
"The Touch of the Masters Hand."

"And many a man with life out of tune
All battered and bruised with hardship
Is auctioned cheap to a thoughtless crowd
Much like that old violin

A mess of pottage, a glass of wine,
A game and he travels on.
He is going once, he is going twice,
He is going and almost gone.

But the Master comes,
And the foolish crowd never can quite understand,
The worth of a soul and the change that is wrought
By the Touch of the Masters' Hand.

February 21, 1921. France and Poland entreat against Germany, and to the benefit of the USSR, but tell no-one, Coup in Persia, Long walk in Australia

Benjamin Harney, noted sculptor, making a working model of cigar smoking President-elect Harding during a round of golf on course at St. Augustine, Fla., 2/21/21.

President Elect Harding, who hadn't wanted to be President in the first place, and looking calm for a man who had just paid off one mistress but was, um, busy with another, chose to go golfing on this day in 1921. Still, the period equivalent of the paparazzi wouldn't leave him alone.

Ahad Shad Qajar, who only had two more years to reign, and only titular reign at that.

Harding was about to assume office in March, but in Iran General Reza Shah Pahlavi and journalist (yes journalist) Zia'eddin Tabatabaee deposed Fatollah Khan Akbar with the goal of preserving the Qajar Dynasty.  Ahmad Shah would remain the nominal king of the country for two years before being sent packing in 1923.  Reza Khan, by 1925, would decide that he'd be a nifty king and he founded the Pahlavi Dynasty that ruled until deposed in 1979, with results that continue to echo through to us today, and not in a good way.

Reza Khan.

Reza Khan was a commander of the Persian Cossack Brigade, which gets into their confusing nature, as they were not real Cossacks, ethnically, but were modeled on that group.  His mother was a Muslim Georgian and his father a Mazanderani, which meant that he was not of Persian ethnicity.

Poland and France added a secret addition to their recent treaty that provided that starting in 1923 a military alliance would exist which would require each nation to assist the other in the even of a German attack and which provided, contrary to Soviet suspicions, that that Poland would not attack the USSR.

Aidan de Brune became the first person to walk across Australia by himself, arriving in Sydney after having left 90 days prior from Freemantle, which is pretty good time really.

The first ski jumping competition in the United States occurred at Lake Placid.

Causalities of Tension and Incompetence.

Iran shot down a Ukrainian airliner over Tehran this week, after its retaliatory missile strikes on US facilities in Iraq.  The plane was carrying Iranians mostly bound for Canada, which has a large Iranian immigrant population.

To make this plane, Iran's military shot down a civilian aircraft over their own capitol city.

This is because the Iranian military isn't great.

Iran has universal male conscription at 18 years of age.  Interestingly, prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, it also conscripted women, but stopped at that time.  This means it has a large conscript military.

And while it has obtained arms, as the greed and stupidity of nations exceeds their best interests all too often, their military is basically a 1970s vintage force.

We don't know what happened to lead to this tragedy, but my guess is that a tired and scared group of Iranian conscripts had been harangued by officers and seniors about expecting an American attack to the point they were worn out and scared.  So they fired on what they thought was an American military aircraft and 176 completely innocent people, most of whom were their fellow countrymen. We don't know what happened to the men who fired the missile, but we can be assured that it is or was bad.

Nothing will happen to the men ultimately responsible for the tragedy, which is the Iranian Islamist leadership that has governed the country for forty one years and kept in on a violent path of regional Shiite dominance. That government will ultimately go down in an Iranian revolution of some sort, and much of their theocratic views forever with it.

Where this leaves the Iranian American Conflict is not known, but what has turned out to be the case is that an extremely risky course of action the US embarked on due to an order of President Trump and under the apparent urging of Mike Pompeo has been surprisingly effective so far.  Nearly everyone agrees that Gen. Soleimani was a terrorist whose demise should not be lamented.  That he was a uniformed officer of the Iranian paramilitary Revolutionary Guard, and the method by which it occurred really ramped up the risks, but Iran's response was ineffective, perhaps intentionally so, or perhaps simply because it was.  And Iran managed to put the period on the entire event by following up an ineffective missile strike by shooting down a Ukrainian airliner.  The U.S., in the meantime, has essentially declared the matter over.

Either as an example of truly masterful strategy, or by accident, the U.S. has effectively moved the bar on state sponsored terrorism and, due to the past week, managed to make state employed uniformed terrorist a routine target in wars on terrorism and to have exposed Iran's conventional forces as less than impressive.  Iran may have in fact suffered a set back as a sponsor of terrorism and given its history, that's a large part of its diplomatic approach to the world. Without it, it's not much.

At least not much until it acquires a nuclear weapon, which it is now working on.  Indeed, exposed as conventionally incompetent and now with a reduced military portfolio because of the changed nature of the game, it may be stepping back because it knows this has become a must for it.

Or so it probably believes. The irony of it is that nuclear weapons for small nations are, frankly, completely worthless.

President Trump addresses the nation on Iran.

President Trump addressed the nation yesterday on the conflict with Iran.  He stated the following.

As long as I’m president of the United States Iran will never be allowed to have a nuclear weapon. Good morning.  

I’m pleased to inform you, the American people should be extremely grateful and happy. No Americans were harmed in last night’s attack by the Iranian regime. We suffered no casualties. All of our soldiers are safe,, and only minimal damage was sustained at our military bases.  

Our great American forces are prepared for anything. Iran appears to be standing down, which is a good thing for all parties concerned and a very good thing for the world. No American or Iraqi lives were lost because of the precautions taken, the dispersal of forces, and an early warning system that worked very well. 

I salute the incredible skill and courage of America’s men and women in uniform. For far too long, all the way back to 1979 to be exact, nations have tolerated Iran’s destructive, and destabilizing behavior in the middle East and beyond. Those days are over. Iran has been the leading sponsor of terrorism, and their pursuit of nuclear weapons threatens the civilized world. We will never let that happen. Last week, we took decisive action to stop a ruthless terrorist from threatening American lives.  

At my direction, the United States military eliminated the world’s top terrorist, Quasem Soleimani. As the head of the Quds force, Soleimani was personally responsible for some of the absolutely worst atrocities.  He trained terrorists armies, including Hezbollah, launching terrorist strikes against civilian targets. He fueled bloody civil Wars all across the region. He viciously wounded, and murdered thousands of US troops, including the planting of roadside bombs that may him and dismember their victims. Soleimani directed the recent attacks on US personnel in Iraq, that badly wounded for service members, and killed one American, and he orchestrated the violent assault on the US Embassy in Baghdad. In recent days, he was planning new attacks on American targets, but we stopped him. 

Soleimani’s hands were drenched in both American and Iranian blood. He should have been terminated long ago. By removing Soleimani, we have sent a powerful message to terrorists. If you value your own life, you will not threaten the lives of our people. As we continue to evaluate options in response to Iranian aggression, the United States will immediately impose additional punishing economic sanctions on the Iranian regime. These powerful sanctions will remain until Iran changes it’s behavior. In recent months alone Iran’s sea ships in international waters fired an unprovoked strike on Saudi Arabia, and shot down to US drones. Iran’s hostilities substantially increased after the foolish Iran nuclear deal was signed in 2013, and they were given $150 billion not to mention $1.8 billion in cash. Instead of saying thank you to the United States, they chanted death to America. 

In fact, they chanted death to America the day the agreement was signed. Then Iran went on a terrorist spree, funded by the money from the deal, and created hell in Yemen, Syria, Lebanon, Afghanistan, and Iraq. The missiles fired last night at us, and our allies were paid for with the funds made available by the last administration. The regime also greatly tightened the reins on their own country. Even recently killing 1500 people, at the many protests that are taking place all throughout Iran. The very defective JCPOA expires shortly anyway, and gives a ran a clear and quick path to nuclear breakout. 

Iran must abandon its nuclear ambitions and end its support for terrorism. The time has come for the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Russia, and China to recognize this reality. They must now break away from the remnants of the Iran deal, or JCPOA, and we must all work together toward making a deal with Iran that makes the world a safer, and more peaceful place. We must also make a deal that allows Iran to thrive and prosper and take advantage of its enormous untapped potential. Iran can be a great country. Peace and stability cannot prevail in the Middle East as long as the Iran continues to foment violence, unrest, hatred and war. The civilized world, must send a clear and unified message to the Iranian regime. Your campaign of terror, murder, mayhem will not be tolerated any longer. It will not be allowed to go forward. 

Today, I am going to ask NATO to become much more involved in the Middle East process. Over the last three years. Under my leadership, our economy is stronger than ever before, and America’s achieved energy independence. These historic accomplishments shades our strategic priorities. These are accomplishments that nobody thought were possible, and options in the Middle East became available. We are now the number one producer of oil and natural gas anywhere in the world. We are independent and we do not need Middle East oil. The American military has been completely rebuilt under my administration at a cost of two point $5 trillion. US armed forces are stronger than ever before. 

Our missiles are big, powerful, accurate, lethal, and fast. Under construction, are many hypersonic missiles. The fact that we have this great military and equipment, however, does not mean we have to use it. We do not want to use it. American strength, both military, and economic is the best deterrent. Three months ago after destroying 100% of ISIS, and its territorial caliphate, we killed the savage leader of ISIS al-Baghdadi who is responsible for so much death, including the mass beheadings of Christians, Muslims, and all who stood in his way. He was a monster. al-Baghdadi was trying again to rebuild the ISIS caliphate and failed. Tens of thousands of ISIS fighters have been killed or captured during my administration. 

ISIS is a natural enemy of Iran. The destruction of ISIS is good for Iran, and we should work together on this and other shared priorities. Finally, to the people and leaders of Iran, we want you to have a future and a great future, one that you deserve. One of prosperity at home, and harmony with the nations of the world. The United States is ready to embrace peace with all who seek it. I want to thank you, and God bless America. Thank you very much. Thank you. Thank you.

This then is the stated reason for the new situation with Iran.  As we noted yesterday, Secretary of State Mike Pompeo seems to be instrumental in this new direction.  What is clear is that the Administration targeted Solemani because he was a principal Iranian paramilitary commander involved with Iran's sponsorship of foreign, illegal, terrorist militias. 

What isn't clear is if nature of Iran's response was really contemplated.  It might have been, and should have been, but it might not have been.  Those over acclimated to terrorism may have thought that Iran would simply regard this as costs of the game and then recalculate the costs.  And indeed, we don't fully know that they won't do that.

If they don't, we also don't know if the Administration war gamed this matter to contemplate a dramatically increased conflict with Iran, which doesn't mean that I'm predicting a full scale conventional war (I'm not, and I think that extremely unlikely).  And it doesn't seem that Iraq's parliament asking us to leave was contemplated, and we don't know how that will play out.

One thing I don't think will occur, in spite of the President's reference to it, is an increased role for NATO in the Middle East.  Indeed, I can't even see where such a request would make sense.  We didn't run this strike against NATO when we did it, and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, while it has been more active in global affairs since the fall of the Soviet Union, is for the defense of Europe.  A person can rationalize that taking on the problems of the Middle East fits that model, but it's really a stretch. And the NATO country that is in the Middle East, Turkey, no doubt has a different view on many things in comparison to the United States, although this Administration has been accommodating to Turkey as the recent events in Kurdish Syria have demonstrated.