Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Economics. Show all posts

Saturday, February 24, 2024

The 2024 Wyoming Legislative Session. Part 3. The start of the budget session.


February 12, 2024

The legislature convenes today.

February 13, 2024


I'd comment, but I haven't listened to it yet.

February 15, 2024

Having now listened to it, Governor Gordon's State of the State, it was clearly disappointing.  I can't strongly recall Governor Gordon's prior State of the State speeches, but this was clearly in the category of "red meat" for an intended audience.

The speech pitched to the far right and was full of Wyoming v. The Biden Administration invective, promising lawsuits against the Federal Government and the like, and promising that Wyoming's fossil fuel industry would be relevant in its current form forever.  Gordon only hinted on industry changes being necessary for its survival, but otherwise declared that people have to depend on us whether they like it or not. Gordon knows better, so it was truly a political speech.

Interestingly, it's drawn criticism from some on the far right for being hypocritical.  And there's some merit to that claim.  Gordon has been under fire from the far right for his Carbon Neutrality discussions recently, and rather cynically tried to recast his statements.

"State of the _________" speeches are, quite frankly, approaching the worthless point, if in fact they did not do so sometime ago, as those delivering them just won't be honest in them. Everyone would be stunned if a President gave one that said something like "ladies and gentlemen, I'm here to report the State of the Union is imperiled, and It's because you either won't tell the truth or don't know what it is" or "I'm Gov. Jones, and oh boy, there are a bunch of problems here to solve".

The budget information was, however, interesting.

The Senate voted 17-14 to reinstate Sen. Dave Kinskey, R-Sheridan, as chairman of the Legislature’s most powerful committee after  President Ogden Driskill, R-Devils Tower, unilaterally stripped Kinskey of the position last April. This removed Sen. Tara Nethercott who had been chosen to replace Kinskey.

House Bill 63 outlawing child sex change (mutilation) surgeries failed to secure enough votes for introduction because, oddly, the Freedom Caucus opposed it for not going far enough and House Democrats opposed it for going too far, thereby giving an example of the perfect being the enemy of the good.

February 21, 2024.

House Bill 203, paased the House Revenue Committee. The Bill exempts $200,000 of the fair market value of the assessment of single-family residential properties for this current tax year and $1,000,000 of fair market thereafter in exchange for an additional 2% sales tax.

I have mixed ffeelings about this bill, and I'm mostly mixed against it. Wyomingites fail to appreciate how much they actually depend on tax revenues simply for local governments to function and also are in the odd situation of not equating a host of things that encourage property value inflation with things they don't like.  Basically, a lot of Wyomingites would like the state to remain what it was in some priro decade (and I confess I hold those views) while also having booming local economies and the like.  Things have to give somewhere, and where they've been giving is in inflating property values.  Removing $1M in valuation in this fashion will actually encourage that, and bring about additional problems.

Most people will like the bill, however, until they pay the sales tax, and then they'll be made about that.

And also:

House passes bill to rein in insurance providers

February 22, 2024

The legislature really hit the op eds this morning.

A bill mandating power plants to carbon capture, which is thought of as a way to save coal fire plants and hence coal, was criticized by an engineer as unworkable in the Trib.

Whether its unworkable or not, as a technology, it's likely not cost productive, although I'm not an engineer and can't venture a qualified opinion.

The Freedom Caucus criticized Governor Gordon's budget as unworkable and unsustainable.

Generally, the far populist right is hostile to government in general, and a favorite concept of it has been to "starve" the government to death. That's been tried repeatedly at the Federal level, where it's been forgotten that the Government can just borrow money, mostly from the Chinese, so it still dines out, just on The Bank of the Public Credit Card.  At the local level, however, it can't do that.

Frankly, I've never seen a Wyoming budget that I regarded as containing much fat, so I'm skeptical that this is a big budget.  One item, a raise in government employees salaries, is definitely not unwise spending. The state's employees are under compensated, and sometimes I wonder how they even get by.  Basically all this budget does is to try to catch up, which it doesn't, but at least it does something.

The list of things specifically complaints of is interesting.  Other than an increase in salaries, they are, and we quote:
"$21.8 million for a new gun/firing range.
$10 million in ‘contingency.’
$38 million for “affordable housing.”
$7.5 million to build a new helibase."
I'm not keen on a couple of these things. The "gun/firing range" is the range at the Law Enforcement Academy.  It needs to be rebuilt.  I'm for that.

But to call it a "gun/firing range" is revealing.  

I've noted before the FC is mostly made up of imports from out of state.  Nobody familiar with firearms calls a shooting range a "gun/firing range".

$10,000,000 for contingency seems like a pretty good idea to me.

The money for affordable housing does not, but again probably not for the reasons that the FC views it. Rather, Wyoming has long catered to a weird concept that we can boost industry, bring in people, while keeping everything, including the population size, the same.  That's obviously impossible.

Housing follows demand, and this is a byproduct of what we asked for.  If we don't like getting what we asked for, we ought to modify that.  Government funded housing probably isn't the answer to that.

$7,500,000 is to update the helibase for fighting wildland fires, of which we've been getting a lot. 

I'm for that.

Something final to note.

The budget is bigger because of inflation.

Inflation was caused by a global pandemic followed by Donald Trump's political paramour Vlad Putin invading Ukraine.

Things cost more than they used to.  A budget needs to reflect that.

Regarding a bill to defund UW's Gender Studies and Diversity Office, Sen. Charles Scott stated:
This kind of program was the principal agent of introducing that rot, introducing a faculty that is without diversity of opinion, that is a monolith of wokeness. We’re seeing this rot affect the University of Wyoming.
He also stated that he's discouraging people from attending UW.

February 23, 2024

Chloe's Bill, which was one of two bills seeking to prohibit underage gender mutilation last general session, has cleared committee in this session.  It provides:
SENATE FILE NO. SF0099

Chloe's law-children gender change prohibition.

Sponsored by: Senator(s) Bouchard, Biteman, Boner, Brennan, Dockstader, French, Hicks, Hutchings, Ide, Kinskey, Kolb, Laursen, D, McKeown, Salazar and Steinmetz and Representative(s) Andrew, Davis, Heiner, Hornok, Jennings, Knapp, Locke, Neiman, Niemiec, Ottman, Pendergraft, Penn, Rodriguez-Williams, Slagle, Strock, Styvar, Trujillo and Winter

A BILL

for

AN ACT relating to public health and safety; prohibiting physicians from performing procedures for children related to gender transitioning and gender reassignment; providing an exception; providing that gender transitioning and reassignment procedures are grounds for suspension or revocation of a physician's or health care provider's license; providing definitions; specifying applicability; requiring rulemaking; and providing for effective dates.

Be It Enacted by the Legislature of the State of Wyoming:

Section 1.  W.S. 35‑4‑1001 is created to read:


ARTICLE 10

GENDER‑RELATED PROCEDURES

35‑4‑1001.  Gender transitioning and reassignment procedures for children prohibited.

(a)  As used in this section:

(i)  "Child" means a person who is younger than eighteen (18) years of age;

(ii)  "Health care provider" means a person other than a physician who is licensed, certified or otherwise authorized by Wyoming law to provide or render health care or to dispense or prescribe a prescription drug in the ordinary course of business or practice of a profession;

(iii)  "Physician" means any person licensed to practice medicine in this state by the state board of medicine under the Medical Practice Act.

(b)  Except as provided in subsection (c) of this section and for purposes of transitioning a child's biological sex as determined by the sex organs, chromosomes and endogenous profiles of the child or affirming the child's perception of the child's sex if that perception is inconsistent with the child's biological sex, no physician or health care provider shall:

(i)  Perform a surgery that sterilizes the child, including castration, vasectomy, hysterectomy, oophorectomy, metoidioplasty, orchiectomy, penectomy, phalloplasty and vaginoplasty;

(ii)  Perform a mastectomy;

(iii)  Provide, administer, prescribe or dispense any of the following prescription drugs that induce transient or permanent infertility:

(A)  Puberty suppression or blocking prescription drugs to stop or delay normal puberty;

(B)  Supraphysiologic doses of testosterone to females;

(C)  Supraphysiologic doses of estrogen to males.

(iv)  Remove any otherwise healthy or nondiseased body part or tissue.

(c)  This section shall not apply to:

(i)  Procedures or treatments that are performed with the consent of the child's parent or guardian and are for a child who is born with a medically verifiable genetic disorder of sex development, including 46, XX chromosomes with virilization, 46, XY with undervirilization or both ovarian and testicular tissue;

(ii)  Any procedure or treatment that is performed with the consent of the child's parent or guardian and is for a child with medically verifiable central precocious puberty.

Section 2.  W.S. 33‑21‑146(a)(xi), (xii) and by creating a new paragraph (xiii), 33‑24‑122(a)(intro), (ix) and by creating a new paragraph (xi) and 33‑26‑402(a) by creating a new paragraph (xxxvi) are amended to read:

33‑21‑146.  Disciplining licensees and certificate holders; grounds.

(a)  The board of nursing may refuse to issue or renew, or may suspend or revoke the license, certificate or temporary permit of any person, or to otherwise discipline a licensee or certificate holder, upon proof that the person:

(xi)  Has failed to submit to a mental, physical or medical competency examination following a proper request by the board made pursuant to board rules and regulations and the Wyoming Administrative Procedure Act; or

(xii)  Has violated a previously entered board order;. or

(xiii)  Has violated W.S. 35‑4‑1001.

33‑24‑122.  Revocation or suspension of license and registration; letter of admonition; summary suspension; administrative penalties; probation; grounds.

(a)  The license and registration of any pharmacist may be revoked or suspended by the board of pharmacy or the board may issue a letter of admonition, refuse to issue or renew any license or require successful completion of a rehabilitation program or issue a summary suspension for any one (1) or more of the following causes:

(ix)  For senility or mental impairment which impedes the pharmacist's professional abilities or for habitual personal use of morphine, cocaine or other habit forming drugs or alcohol; or

(xi)  For violating W.S. 35‑4‑1001.

33‑26‑402.  Grounds for suspension; revocation; restriction; imposition of conditions; refusal to renew or other disciplinary action.

(a)  The board may refuse to renew, and may revoke, suspend or restrict a license or take other disciplinary action, including the imposition of conditions or restrictions upon a license on one (1) or more of the following grounds:

(xxxvi)  Violating W.S. 35‑4‑1001.

Section 3.  W.S. 35‑4‑1001, as created by section 1 of this act, shall apply only to conduct or procedures occurring on and after the effective date of this act.

Section 4.  The department of health, state board of medicine and state board of pharmacy shall promulgate all rules necessary to implement this act.

Section 5.  

(a)  Except as provided in subsection (b) of this section, this act is effective July 1, 2024.

(b)  Sections 4 and 5 of this act are effective immediately upon completion of all acts necessary for a bill to become law as provided by Article 4, Section 8 of the Wyoming Constitution.
Chloe Cole, whom the bill is named after and who was a victim of the barbarity of gender mutilation in the name of "transgenderism" spoke in favor of the bill.

February 24, 2024

So, week two is over.  The results so far:


The Senate and the House are $900,000,000 apart in their respective budget bills, which is not a good sign at all,  Part of that is due to the rise of the populist right in the House, which is hostile to government.  An op ed earlier this week by Freedom Caucus members complained about the budget.

The higher number frankly seems reasonable to me.  Raises of state employee salaries are certainly merited. Some government infrastructure, such as a heliport for fire fighting, fits into the category of things we'll regret later if not funded, probably after this episode in populism is over, which there are early signs may be coming.

Most but not all of the really populist bills have bitten the dust, showing that in spite of big predictions going into this session, the populist don't have enough pull to really get their agenda considered. There are some exceptions, but those exceptions pretty much uniformly feature broad support and can't, therefore, be considered solely populist.

An example of that is Chloe's Law, which was introduced last session and is back.  Of interest there, its being advanced by Anthony Bouchard, who was an extremely controversial member of the legislature at one time but no longer seem to be.  Moreover, he doesn't seem to be a member of the populist far right group in the legislature.  Interesting, he was one of the very first ones, but during his race for the House he seems to have cut loose from them.  

The bill to go from property taxes for local funds to a sales tax advanced, but barely.  In its first reading, it passed by a mere two votes.

Given that, my prediction is that it'll go down in defeat.

Politic were being played with the pristine Kelly Parcel in Teton County, with a bill being introduced to hold it hostage if the BLM doesn't bend its knee on the Resource Management Plan for the Rock Springs area, which is flatly just sad.   There were amendments at the same time to require that it continue to be used for grazing and hunting, which do seem like good ideas to me.

And so we're on to week three, which a massive gap in the budget to work out.

Appendix:


Last Prior Edition.

Blog Mirror: Guest Column: Bill Would Eliminate Property Taxes for Most Wyoming Residents

 

Guest Column: Bill Would Eliminate Property Taxes for Most Wyoming Residents

Monday, February 19, 2024

Soap Blindness. Being careful about what you are wishing for.

Independent truck drivers, whom share nothing in common with Donald Trump whatsoever, are claiming they'll boycott New York State today due to the judgment against the serially indicted former President.

In the Gene Shepherd classic A Christmas Story, Ralphie imagines that he'll get "soap blindness" and live on the streets, to the regret of his parents, for having his mouth washed out with soap.  No such thing exists, of course, but in reality, if it did, it'd be worse than the remorse the parents would feel for the person enduring it.

In other words, a person needs to be careful for what they wish for.

Truck drivers, or at least American independent truck drivers, are heavily invested in the belief that "America needs us".  They're also heavily invested in a myth of manly, rugged independence.  The reality of the situation is quite different, however.

The United States went to a semi tractor supply distribution system through the short sightedness of Dwight Eisenhower, who backed the massive Federally funded expansion of the US highway system during his administration.  Eisenhower, impressed with the Autobahn, which he'd seen while the Supreme Commander of Allied Expedition Force in Europe, wanted them here.  It was really an example of the American System at work, and while I'm generally a proponent of the American System, it shouldn't have happened in this example.

Coming right at the same time that the American love of automobiles really took off, it caused a massive ongoing subsidy of the highway system, and by extension, the expansion of over the road trucking, at the detriment of the railroads.  I've posted on that here before, stating:

Trucking is a subsidized industry, but people don't think of it that way.  Its primary competitor is rail. Railroads put in their own tracks and maintain their own railroad infrastructure. When you see a train, everything you were looking at, from the rails to the cars, were purchased by private enterprise. When you seem a semi tractor, however, it's always traveling on a public conveyance.


It's doing that fairly inefficiently compared to rail.  Rail is incredibly cheap on a cost per mile basis, and it's actually incredibly "green" as well.  It's efficient.  Trucks are nowhere near as efficient in any fashion.  Not even in employment of human resources.  Trains have, anymore, one or two men crews, the same as semi trucks, but they're hauling a lot more per mile than trucks are with just two men.

And, as we also stated:

Following the Second World War the U.S. saw a rising expansion of over the road trucking.  By the late 1950s the US was, additionally, overhauling its Interstate highway system via the Defense Department's budget with new "defense" highways, which were much improved compared to the old Interstate highway system.  With the greatly improved roads, by the 1960s, interstate long haul trucking was in an advance state of supplanting the railroads for a lot of American freighting.  At the same time, the diesel engine supplanted the gasoline engine for semi tractors.  A very uncommon engine for motor vehicles in the United States prior to the 1950s, diesels started coming in somewhere in that period and by the 1960s they'd completely replaced gasoline engines for over the road semi tractors.  Now, of course, diesels have become fairly common for heavy pickups as well, and are even starting to appear in the U.S. in light pickup trucks in spite of the higher cost of diesel fuel.


The change was dramatic, although few people can probably fully appreciate that now, as we are so acclimated to trucking.  Thousands of trucks supplanted thousands of rail cars, and entire industries that were once served only by rail came to be served by truck.  The shipping of livestock, for example, which was nearly exclusively a railroad enterprise up into the 1950s is now done entirely by truck, a change which had remarkable impacts as rail shipping required driving the livestock to the railhead, whereas with the trucks they are simply scheduled to arrive at a ranch at a particular time.  Likewise, businesses that at one time located themselves near rail lines, so that they could receive their heavy products by rail, no longer do, as they receive those items by trucks.  For example, pipeyards, once always near a railhead, are not always today.


One semi truck does as much damage to the highways as 2,000 passenger cars, or some I'm told.  I was told that by the owner of a company that has semi trucks.

On top of it, truck driving isn't something Americans want to do anymore, something the independents who are protesting seem to be missing.  As we earlier noted:

There are presently 11,000,000 unfilled jobs in the United States.  These are jobs that were filled before the COVID Recession.  People aren't going back to work.

And laborers are also demanding better wages and benefits in order to do the work they're doing.

This represents a dual fundamental shift in the thinking of the American work force.  Part of it is old-fashioned, and part not so much.

As for better wages and benefits, following the Reagan Administration and the economic woes of the 1970s, American labor really faded from the scene as an organized entity.  Of course, we lost a lot of labor to overseas as well.  Now the remaining labor is fed up and taking advantage of the situation, for which it cannot be blamed.

The second part of this situation, however, is remarkable.  Forced out of work during the pandemic, stay homes, lots of people discovered that modern American work sucks. They don't want to go back, as their lives were better without the work.

Some of those who don't want to go back are truck drivers. The country is short 20,000 truck drivers right now.

In recent years the country has actually imported a lot of truck drivers, something the general public seems largely unaware of.  Anymore, when I read the names of people involved in truck driving accidents, I expect the drivers to be Russian, and I'm actually surprised when they are not.   What happened here overall isn't clear to me, but over the last fifteen years technology has developed to where it's much easier for trucking companies to keep tabs on their truckers while on the road and things have gotten safer. At the same time, this means, as it always has, but perhaps more so, that these guys live on the road.  According to Buttigieg the industry has an 80% annual turnover rate.

An 80% annual turnover rate doesn't sound even remotely possible to me, but that there's a high one wouldn't surprise me.  It's a dangerous job and contrary to what people like to imagine, it doesn't really pay the drivers that well as a rule, or at least fairly often.  Often the drivers are "owner operators" who own their own super expensive semi tractor and who are leasing it to the company they are driving for.  That in turn means that they're often making hefty payments on the truck.  I don't blame anyone for not wanting to do it.

I can blame the nation for putting itself in this situation, however.

Drivers can make a lot of money, for sure, but their paychecks often go towards paying for their trucks and the like.  Modern trucks are automatic transmission vehicles and the days of really highly skilled teamsters who knew how to double clutch and shift two gear shifts at once (which I've seen done), are long gone.  The job has become one where temporary immigrants and immigrants from the Third World are incredibly common.  

So sure, while there are Trump loving independent teamsters out there, there are a lot of drivers from India, Somalia, Russia or Mexico who no doubt have little Trump love.

And motorists have little truck love.  That's part of the reason that teamsters feel compelled to attempt to remind people that things move by truck.  The problem is, they don't have to.

Had the Defense Highway System not been built, things would move by rail, except locally. There's no reason that couldn't happen again, and if the Federal Government suddenly decided, for whatever reason (and expense would be a good one) to end the funding system, the result would be just like what happened when it quite subsidizing housing the mentally ill back in Reagan's day.  States wouldn't pick it back up.  It'd take awhile, but not as long as supposed, before rail picked its old role back up, but it could and would.  

Beyond that, rail transportation is already very "green", as noted above, compared to truck transportation.  It could be made much more so by electrifying the system, which is a proven system.  Trains engines are also more capable of readily being made in alternative fuels than semi trucks are.  Short haul trucks, from rail to consumer, are also relatively easy to make the conversion to electricity.

Up until after World War Two, most things moved by rail, and trucking was local.  The highway system, while the Federal Government was already in it, was much more local.

So, want to show how valuable you are to the economy?  Going on strike or into a boycott may do it.  Perhaps you are like the railroader of World War One and World War Two and can't be ignored.  Perhaps you are an economic Lysistrata and people won't want to ignore you.

Or perhaps people figure they're better off without you and they don't want to be taxed to support your industry anymore and they'll look forward to not seeing trucks in their rear view mirror.

Related Threads:

Supply Chain Disruption and Other Economic Problems







Friday, January 19, 2024

Saturday, January 19, 1974. The Battle of the Paracel Islands.

The People's Republic of China and the Republic of South Vietnam engaged in combat, mostly naval, but some ground, over the Paracel Islands. The events had been preceded by maneuvers and landings the prior few days after South Vietnam found the Chinese had landed on an island and had armed vessels nearby.


The following day, January 20, the Chinese would prevail.

The South Vietnamese defeat would later be regarded as a Vietnamese one in general as North Vietnam also did not welcome the Chinese incursion and would, post Vietnam War, demand that the Chinese depart, which they have not.  North Vietnam, upon taking over the entire country, praised the efforts of the South Vietnamese troops who attempted to defend the islands.


The People's Republic of China, Republic of China (Taiwan) and Vietnam, all claim the islands

The French government floated the franc, which would continue for six months, in order to maintain its value.

Wednesday, January 17, 2024

What's the matter with Wyoming (and Iowa)?


The other day Robert Reich, whose writing I have a love/hate relationship with, wrote this article:

What’s the matter with Iowa?

I'll admit that I was prepared to dismiss it when I started reading it, but I can't. It's a well reasoned article.

I don't think it sums up everything that's "wrong" with Iowa, but it gets some things right.  This could just as easily be said, about Wyoming, however:

I saw it happen. When I was helping Fritz Mondale in 1984, I noticed Iowa beginning to shift from family farms to corporate agriculture, and from industrialized manufacturing to knowledge-intensive jobs.

The challenge was to create a new economy for Iowa and for much of the Midwest.

I didn’t have any good ideas for creating that new economy, though — and neither did Mondale, who won Iowa’s Democratic caucuses that year but lost the general election to Ronald Reagan in Iowa and every other state, except his own Minnesota.

Yet not until George W. Bush’s reelection campaign in 2004 did a Republican presidential candidate win Iowa again.

When Tom Vilsack was governor of Iowa in the early 2000s and flirting with the idea of a presidential run, he told me he worried that Iowa’s high school valedictorians used to want to attend the University of Iowa or Iowa State, but now wanted the Ivy League or Stanford or NYU. Even Iowa’s own college graduates were leaving for Chicago, Minneapolis-St. Paul, and New York.

Vilsack wanted to know how to keep Iowa’s talent in Iowa — a variant of the question I couldn’t answer for Mondale. By this time I had a few ideas — setting up high-tech hubs around major universities, blanketing parts of the state with free wi-fi, having community colleges supply the talent local industries needed — but they all cost money that Iowa didn’t have.

As The New York Times’s Jonathan Weisman noted recently, Iowa continues to lose more than 34 percent of its college graduates each year. Illinois, by contrast, gains 20 percent more college graduates than it produces. Minnesota has about 8 percent more college grads than it produces.

This talent migration has hastened America’s split into two cultures, not just in Iowa and the Midwest but across the nation.

But not entirely.

The thing people like Reich don't get is that much of the country doesn't want to become an upper middle class urban cesspool.  Places that people like Reich worship are largely abhorrent in living terms.  There's a reason that people look to rural areas and an idealized past.

But people also lash themselves to a dead economy as if it'll come back, even if it means losing track of reality at some point, or even if it means becoming something they claim to detest, welfare recipients. This has happened all over the US.

Something needs to be done to revitalize the main street economy, and people like Reich don't have the answers because at the end of the day, all American economists see things the same way.  Everything is corporate, the only question is how much, if any, restraint you put on corporations.

Distributism would cure a lot of this.

If we had a more Distributist economy, we'd have a more local one.  For rural areas, that'd mean much more local processing of locally produced goods.  There's no reason for the concentration of the meat packing industry, for example. Beef could be packed locally.  At one time, my family did just that. And that's only one example.

If the economy was reoriented in that fashion, local industry would expand a great deal.  The thing is, of course, not all of those jobs would be the glass and steel mind-numbing cubicle jobs that all economists love.

But here's the other thing.  As long as the economy is oriented the way it is, rural states are going to be colonies of urban areas, just as much as, let's say, French Indochina was a colony of France, or Kenya a colony of the United Kingdom.  Exploitative, in another word.  It's not intentionally so, it is an economic reality.

The problem there is that in those sorts of economies everything is produced for export alone, and everything is precarious.  That gets back to my Distributist argument above.

But it also gets to a certain cultural thing in which those deeply aligned with the economy, which includes most people, can't see anything thing else. As long as the economy keeps working, that's okay. But when changes come, that can be a disaster.

Wyoming's very first economy was the fur trade, if we discount the native economy (which is a real economy, and accordingly should not be discounted).  Contrary to the popular belief, the fur trade was not displaced, it just was never really very large, and therefore it diminished in importance when other things came in.

The other things were 1) agriculture, which came first, followed by the 2) extractive industries.  Both are still with us.  Agriculture has suffered to a degree as the naturally distributist industries that support it have been sacrificed on the altar of corporate economics and consolidation.  The state, for its part, did nothing to arrest that trend and simply let it happen.  In part, that's because the state has always deeply worshiped the thought that the extractive industries will make us all rich and nothing is to be interfered with, including losing local production of the raw resources that are first produced here.  I.e., we don't refine the oil as much as we used to, we don't pack the meat, we don't process the wool. . . . 

And the extractive industries certainly have made a lot of people and entire communities rich, there's no question of it.

But the handwriting is on the wall.  Coal is declining and will continue to do so.  And a massive shift in petroleum use is occurring, which Wyoming cannot stop.  Petroleum will still be produced far into the future, but its use as a fuel is disappearing.  Petrochemicals, on the other hand, are not.

We seemingly like to think we can stop those things from changing in any form.  We've tried to through lawsuits and legislation.  And yet it turns out that people buying EV's don't listen to our litigation or legislation, any more than they do to Nebraska's Senator Deb Fischer's whining about recharging station funding.  Like some who can't face death due to illness, we'll grasp at what we can, rather than adjust.

Part of that is listening to people who tell us what we want to hear.  A lot of politicians have tried to gently tell us the truth of what we're facing.  Governor Gordon did just recently. When they do that, they're castigated for it.

In 1962's The Days of Wine and Roses the plot follows a man who is a social drinker and introduces alcohol to his girlfriend. They marry, and over time they become heavy drinkers.  He finally stops drinking, his wife having left him, and finds her in an apartment, where she is now a hardcore alcoholic.  He resumes drinking then and there, in order to be with her.

In the end, however, he reforms and quits. She doesn't. We know how that will end.

That's a lot like Wyomingites in general.  We've received the hard knocks and blows.  Some of us are going to put the bottle down and face the day, some are not going to under any circumstances.

For some, it's easier to believe that a "dictator for a day" can order the old economy restored and reverse fifty years of demographic change, while reversing supply, demand, and technology to sort of 1970s status.  In other words, go ahead and have another drink, it won't hurt you.

But in reality, it might, and probably will.

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XVI. And then the day arrived.

Our lifestyle, our wildlife, our land and our water remain critical to our definition of Wyoming and to our economic future.

Dave Freudenthal, former Governor of Wyoming/

 

December 3, 2023


Oil field, Grass Creek, Wyo, April 9, 1916

Snippets of news articles from this morning:
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates — Fifty oil companies representing nearly half of global production pledged to reach near-zero methane emissions and end routine flaring in their operations by 2030, the president of this year’s United Nations climate talks said Saturday, a move environmental groups called a “smokescreen.”

 Smokescreen it doesn't seem to be. That's a major commitment.  But not as big as this one:

DUBAI, United Arab Emirates -- The United States committed Saturday to the idea of phasing out coal power plants, joining 56 other nations in kicking the coal habit that's a huge factor in global warming.

U.S. Special Envoy John Kerry announced that America was joining the Powering Past Coal Alliance, which means the Biden Administration commits to building no new coal plants and phasing out existing plants. No date was given for when the existing plants would have to go, but other Biden regulatory actions and international commitments already in the works had meant no coal by 2035.

None of this should be a surprise.  This is where we've been heading for some time, and it's inevitable.  Indeed, I touched on this back in 2017 here:

Coal: Understanding the time line of an industry

And I cautiously dipped my toe in the water, wondering if Wyoming should ponder a fossil fuel free future here:

Lex Anteinternet: Issues In the Wyoming Election. A Series. Issue No. 1 (a). The Economy again. . . the extractive industries


And here:


Well, now it's coming.

Not that we'll accept it. We'll do anything but.  Our senior Senator in Washington will claim its part of Joe Biden's "radical green agenda", a radical agenda now sought after by the majority of people in the United States, and in the World.  He doesn't believe that, but it sells back home.  With a Republican Party in the state that was ready to boil Governor Gordon in WD40 for daring to say that Wyoming needed to look at a carbon-neutral future, he doesn't dare say anything else as it would imperil his position.  Our junior Senator will likely say nothing at all.

Well, the voices are getting too loud to ignore, and they include people in the oil industry and now even entire nations that depend on petroleum.  From the President, to the Pope, to the Governor of the state, the message is getting pretty clear.  We're going to have to figure out a post fossil fuel economy here.

Quickly.

But, we'll choose not to.  We'll pretend that somehow we can force others to consume the product that we wish to produce, as we've produced it for over a century and a half, and it's our economy.

That, however, isn't the way economies work.
Dear future generations: Please accept our apologies. We were rolling drunk on petroleum.
Kurt Vonnegut


On another topic, the current owners of Remington are closing the doors this week to its Ilion, New York factor.  The company had been headquartered there since 1816.

It'd gone through hard times in the past.  It nearly went bankrupt after World War One when the United States Government cancelled contracts for M1917 Enfield rifles overnight, leaving them with a large stock of unfinished and partially finished rifles.  The Wilson Administration proved to be quite bad at demobilizing.  

Remington, while profitable, had the very bad fortune to be bought by the aptly named Cerebus which focused on AR15 production and drove the company under. Our prior thread on it is here:


Cerebus is virtually a symbol of all that is wrong with corporate capitalism.  Named for the three-headed dog that mythologically guards the gates of Hades to contain the dead therein, it might well be recalled, at least since Dante included it, that the creature is in Hell and of it.

Remington's history was mostly associated, over its long existence, with hunting rifles.  That's what the company was founded on in 1816.  It did manufacture military arms on occasion, however.  For example, it was a large scale supplier of contract rifles for the Union during the Civil War.  It's widely admired by riflemen rolling block rifle had a military variant that was purchased by some states in preference to the Trapdoor Springfield series of rifles, and it was in fact better than the Trapdoor.  The rolling block was widely sold overseas as a military rifle.

By and large, however, it never invested heavily in military sales until the Great War, when the British first contracted with it to produce the rifle that had been intended to replace the SMLE, but adapted to .303 British.  The P14 was a major British rifle of the war, but its production ceased in 1917 when the US entered the war, and the same rifle was adopted to the .30-06 and used by the U.S. as the M1917 Enfield.  Remington's production capacity was so vast that somewhat over half of all U.S. troops in World War One carried that rifle, rather than the M1903, and it continued to be used into World War Two.  But the experienced badly burned Remington and nearly left it bankrupt. After that it was extremely reluctant to make military arms, and it only reluctantly took to producing, ironically, M1903s during the Second World War when the government again needed help.  No original Remington arms were invented for the war as Remington didn't try to undertake that as a project, although it did make a continual series of changes in the M1903 which resulted in the M1903A3, nearly a new rifle in some ways.

After the war and into the Cold War, Remington didn't bother with military arms.  It wasn't a contractor to the M14 like H&R was.  It didn't try to enter a rifle into light rifle contests, like Colt did with the AR15 and Winchester did with its M1 Carbine derived competitor.  That all changed when Cerebus bought the company in 2007.

Cerebus also bought the AR15 manufacturer Bushmaster, which was highly regarded in that field.  By 2012 Remington was making M4 Carbines for the Army.  It leaped wholesale into the "America's Rifle" baloney with a hunting variant of the AR15.  It reentered the pistol market, which it had not been in since a brief foray after the Civil War, with a version of the M1911 pistol.  Cerebus didn't seem to understand what it was that Remington actually made.

Indeed, it was telling that a brilliant move by Remington to introduce a fairly cheap 98 Mauser hunting rifle, the 798, came in 2006, the year before Cerebus bought the company, and it quit offering it in 2008, the year after.

In name, it still exists, but now it's headquartered in Madison, NC.  It was the oldest manufacturer in the United States at the time of its bankruptcy, and it died a victim of American capitalism.

December 13, 2023

Governments gathered in Dubai agreed to the:

transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy systems, in a just, orderly and equitable manner, accelerating action in this critical decade, so as to achieve net zero by 2050 in keeping with the science."
and; 
accelerating efforts towards the phase-down of unabated coal power" and for "tripling renewable energy capacity globally and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency improvements by 2030.

This is a major action, if the committing countries are able to stick to it.  Environmentalist will complain that it is too little, too late, but as economists have shown in the past once efforts are made to really commit to a goal, it tends to be reached much more rapidly than anticipated. 

In Wyoming, where the Governor has been taking flak by noting that Wyoming will have to transition away from a carbon based economy, this is going to result in howls of derision, including claims that its part of a "radical green agenda" and "impossible".  It's neither.

December 14, 2023

We can’t reverse market trends, but we can be prepared. Blaming OSMRE — or, more ridiculously, President Biden — only provides another distraction as Wyoming politicians continue to whistle past the graveyard, averting our attention from planning for our future — a new lower-carbon economy that is coming whether we like it or not.

Bob LeResche former Alaska Commissioner, former Executive Director of the Alaska Energy Authority, in the Casper Star Tribune, December 14, 2023.

I used the same phrase, "whistling past the graveyard" here recently at least twice.

But some, it would appear, are not:


This will likely spark outrage in certain quarters of Wyoming, particularly in the GOP far right.   There were howls of derision concerning Governor Gordon's statements that Wyoming needs to plan for a carbon neutral future.  But that future is coming.  Moreover, what this demonstrates is that there are quarters of Wyoming, and Wyomingites, who see things much differently.  

Fremont County does have an interesting mix of residents, people who have retired there, people who have moved there (which includes everywhere else in Wyoming now), people who work in oil and gas (and live mostly in Riverton), people involved in outdoor industries, and residents of the Reservation.  Lander is the county seat, and borders the Reservation, but it is not an oil town.  The same resolution would likely pass easily in Jackson, maybe Pinedale, and Laramie. Cheyenne?  It might.

What about Evanston?

Well, probably, maybe, not, but Evanston is mad at the Wyoming Department of Transportation's plan to put in a semi tractor/trailer parking lot that will hold over 350 trucks and trailers during emergencies.  They don't like it, even though not all that long ago, almost any Wyoming Interstate highway town would have just shrugged their shoulders and figured that some of those truckers would at least order pizzas while stranded.

December 15, 2023

Global coal demand, on the other hand, was at an all-time high last year, due to use in developing countries.

General Motors is closing two plants and laying off 1,300 workers.

Closer to home, it's clear that Governor Gordon, who will not be running for office again (too bad) feels himself free to speak what he really believes.

Gov. Gordon Agrees Climate Change is Real, Says Decarbonizing the West is Possible

On national TV and in Idaho workshop, Gordon promotes his ‘all of the above’ energy strategy

This is of course going to get him a lot of criticism, including the class "he's a RINO" by people not realizing that they're the ones who are departing from the traditional Republican mindset.

December 18, 2023

All new cars in Canada must be zero emissions starting in 2035.

December 27, 2023

10,000,000 Americans will receive raises with boosted state minimum wages on January 1. The new rates apply in 22 states.

December 28, 2023

From the AP:

MEXICO CITY — Mexico launched its army-run airline  Tuesday when the first Mexicana  airlines flight took off from Mexico City bound for the Caribbean  resort of Tulum.

Also, from the AP:

So far in 2023, Americans have bought a record 1 million-plus hybrids — up 76% from the same period last year, according to Edmunds.com. As recently as last year, purchases had fallen below 2021’s total. This year’s figures don’t even include sales of 148,000 plug-in hybrids, which drive a short distance on battery power before a gas-electric system kicks in.

Last Prior Edition:

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XV. The 2% solution?

Tuesday, November 21, 2023

Subsidiarity Economics. The times more or less locally, Part XV. The 2% solution?

 August 9, 2023

3%

That is what inflation has fallen to.

The target rate is nonsensically 2%, which still robs workers of their wages.  Given the recent inflation, a more sensical target would be at or about 0%, or better yet a slight deflationary rate of 1%.

That's the core inflationary rate, by the way. Real inflation is at about 4.1%.

The US is banning private equity investment in China and investment in some Chinese technology companies.

August 12, 2023

The EPA estimates that by 2055 most petroleum fueled vehicles will have attrited off the road.

August 16, 2023

From the Oil City News:
CASPER, Wyo. — Rocky Mountain Power, the state’s largest electric utility, is proposing to raise its energy rates by 29.2%.
August 24, 2023

Before more consolidation of everything is just what we needed:

Subway sandwich chain sells itself to Dunkin’ owner Roark Capital

August 27, 2023

France will spend €200 million to destroy excess wine in hopes of shoring up the struggling wine industry.  Wine consumption in Europe has been falling, while production increasing.

September 7, 2023

Chinese exports, upon which that nation depends, have decreased every month of 2023.  China's economy is dependent upon exports and there is serious discussion on the country going into a recession.

September 11, 2023

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez faced severe criticism from her constituents, after sharing a video on Instagram from the Kiwi left-wing Aotearoa Liberation League that accredited rising prices solely to corporations and described the discussion surrounding inflation as propaganda.

When I read the headline, I actually wondered if she'd reposted something of Robert Reich's. . . 

The bloom has really been off AoC's rose in recent months.

Trump has been heard at campaign dinners indicating that if re elected he will cut taxes, which are too low to start with, and use tariffs as a trade weapon.

September 15, 2023

The United Auto Workers are out on strike.


September 20, 2023

Ford Motors in Canada reached a deal with is union to avoid a strike there.

Republican infighting kept two budget bills from advancing there.

Cont:  

A drought in Spain has caused a 50% increase in the price of olive oil, which in turn is causing a spike in olive oil theft.

September 27, 2023

The Writers Guild of America has reached an accommodation with the entertainment industry and has ended its strike.

U.S. regulators and seventeen states have sued Amazon on Tuesday over allegations it uses its position in the economy to inflate prices.

The Senate has drafted a stopgap funding bill it will likely pass, but there's no certainty the dysfunctional House of Representatives will.

September 28, 2023

Kevin McCarthy, prisoner of GOP populists, will not take up the Senate bill to fund the government, making a shutdown impossible to avoid.

The House of Representatives is, quite frankly, dysfunctional.

And given this, we will close out this edition of Subsidiarity Economics, even though its barely gone, and start one focused on that theme.

But not before noting that the U.S. economy recently grew 2.1%.

October 1, 2023.

Crisis postponed. 

The following crisis that is:

Subsidiarity Economics. The Shutdown edition.

September 28, 2023


Kevin McCarthy, prisoner of GOP populists, will not take up the Senate bill to fund the government, making a shutdown impossible to avoid.

The House of Representatives is, quite frankly, dysfunctional.

And given this, we will close out this edition of Subsidiarity Economics, even though its barely gone, and start one focused on that theme.

Kevin McCarthy should hang his head in shame.

What all will close, assuming that the House doesn't get its act together today, isn't clear. Some things will, but "vital" things apparently will not.  Some Federal employees will be asked to work without pay, which is interesting, as working without pay is involuntary servitude, and was banned by a post Civil War constitutional amendment.

Congress, oddly, will get paid. 

The mail will continue to be delivered, as the U.S. Post Office funds itself.

Arizona and Utah have voted to spend state funds to keep their National Parks open.  Senator John Barrasso asked the Secretary of the Interior to use park entry fees to do the same.

Fat Bear Week is off due to the dysfunctional House of Representatives having been taken hostage by populists.

Government contracts and modifications to contracts will not be issued.

Medicaid will continue to be paid. Medicare will continue on.

The FHA will have limited staff and loans it processes will be delayed.

The SBA will shut down.

The ATF might not process background checks, which may lead to a complete halt on the sale of firearms by licensed firearm's dealers.

The latter is the thing that Wyomingites are likely to complain about right away.  People in industries supported by tourism are likely to notice the closure of the parks rapidly.

All of this, of course, is because this will be a managed shut down, which is really a limited shutdown or a slow-down.  If things continue for some time, and this time they might, a real shutdown may creep in, which Wyomingites, in spite of apparently disdaining the Federal Government, would really feel.  A closure of the airports, for example, could be expected at some point, And a cessation of petroleum production on Federal lands due to a lack of Federal oversight.  Perhaps a cessation of grazing on the Federal domain for the same reason.  And a lack of highway funds.

None of that will happen rapidly, of course.  Or maybe at all.

September 30, 2023.

We’re likely to avert a shutdown, but the clown show continues

Let the grousing now being.

Not from Reich, with whom I obviously have a love/hate relationship, but from the MAGA far right out in the hinterlands, who will be outraged, outraged I tell you, and they'll tell you on their way from the television to the refirgerator for a Coors Lite (can't touch that Bud, of course) who would, they'll say, have enjoyed the shutdown. . .right up until they didn't, and then somehow, it would have been the Democrats fault.Congress passed a 45-day stopgap spending bill yesterday.  In doing so, Speaker McCarthy noted:

We’re going to be adults in the room. And we’re going to keep government open.
Well now he has 45 days to see if he can do that.

The bill omitted funding for Ukraine.  President Biden noted that in his address regarding the stopgap bill.
Tonight, bipartisan majorities in the House and Senate voted to keep the government open, preventing an unnecessary crisis that would have inflicted needless pain on millions of hardworking Americans. This bill ensures that active-duty troops will continue to get paid, travelers will be spared airport delays, millions of women and children will continue to have access to vital nutrition assistance, and so much more. This is good news for the American people.
 
But I want to be clear: we should never have been in this position in the first place. Just a few months ago, Speaker McCarthy and I reached a budget agreement to avoid precisely this type of manufactured crisis. For weeks, extreme House Republicans tried to walk away from that deal by demanding drastic cuts that would have been devastating for millions of Americans. They failed.
 
While the Speaker and the overwhelming majority of Congress have been steadfast in their support for Ukraine, there is no new funding in this agreement to continue that support. We cannot under any circumstances allow American support for Ukraine to be interrupted. I fully expect the Speaker will keep his commitment to the people of Ukraine and secure passage of the support needed to help Ukraine at this critical moment.

McCarthy had to rely on Democrats to pass the bill, and will now surely face an effort aimed at his removal by his hard right. 

October 4, 2023

Facebook's parent company Meta is laying off 11,000 employees.

October 5, 2023

75,000 Kaiser Permanente employees went on strike Wednesday. Staffing levels are an issue.

October 8, 2023

California has put into effect a law requiring  requires public and private US businesses with revenues greater than $1 billion operating in California to report their emissions comprehensively.

October 9, 2023

Workers for Mack Truck are going out on a UAW strike.

October 11, 2023

The UAW's strike has expanded to include a Ford plant in Kentucky.

October 15, 2023

The price of oil has jumped 6% since April.

October 24, 2023

Icelandic women are on strike for wage equality.

October 27, 2023

The economy grew by 4.9% last quarter.

October 28, 2023

Governor Gordon sounded climate alarm bells in a speech at Harvard this past week, noting that Wyoming needed to decarbonize. This caused the Wyoming Freedom Caucus to freak out.

October 31, 2023
Robert Reich.

November 2, 2023

Headline:

Union sets its sights on Tesla

November 5, 2023

Voters in Maine are voting on a referendum to replace the state's two electric companies with consumer-owned Pine Tree Power Company.

The proposal goes to the polls on Tuesday.  It states:
















November 9, 2023

The Air Force wants Congress to restrict the placement of wind farms near nuclear missle silos.

November 10, 2023

Moody’s Investors Service is revising the outlook on the U.S. government’s ratings to negative from stable but affirming the long-term issuer and senior unsecured rating at AAA.

Lest anyone doubt, this is bad for the economy and reflects a years long inability to get the deficit under control.

November 21, 2023

Ontario Knife Co. was sold to Blue Ridge Knives and all 56 employees at its Frankliville, New  York plant lost their jobs as a result.  Blue Ridge owns 800 brand names.

Last prior edition: