Friday, March 20, 2020

And the hits keep on coming. . .

to the local economy, that is.

It seems selfish to lament the state of the economy in  your own state in the midst of a global pandemic, but this is simply extraordinary. 

1.  The Pandemic

First, that pandemic, we just published something on it here: Lex Anteinternet: Governor Gordon and State Health Officer issue sta...:

That more fully stated:

Governor Gordon and State Health Officer issue statewide closure order for public spaces


Governor Gordon and State Health Officer issue statewide closure order for public spaces

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –  Governor Mark Gordon has endorsed a decision by the Wyoming State Health Officer to close public places for a two-week period to help slow the community spread of coronavirus (COVID-19).
The closure order extends through April 3 and includes schools, theaters, bars, nightclubs, coffee shops, employee cafeterias, self-serve buffets, salad bars, unpackaged self-serve food services, gyms, conference rooms and museums. 
“This Governor has never been inclined to overstep local authority, but these are unprecedented times. It is critical that there is uniformity across the state in how social distancing measures are implemented,” Governor Mark Gordon said.
“Wyoming, like all Americans, must commit to reducing the strain on our healthcare system. These are hard measures and they will be difficult for employees and businesses alike, but they are warranted.”
Restaurants will be closed to dine-in food service, but may remain open for curbside take-out or drive-through food service. Under the order, childcare centers will be closed except for those serving essential personnel. 
Dr. Alexia Harrist, state health officer and state epidemiologist with the Wyoming Department of Health, said “We realize this action will be very difficult for many of our residents. But it is an important step to help them avoid becoming ill and to help them avoid spreading COVID-19 to those who are most vulnerable. We should all work together to help keep our friends and neighbors safe.”
Wyoming currently has 18 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and the Wyoming Public Health laboratory has completed nearly 300 tests, as of March 19, 2020. Additional testing is occurring at commercial laboratories.  A nationwide shortage of testing supplies is impacting Wyoming, like all states. Social distancing measures are the most effective means of slowing the spread of COVID-19, according to Dr. Harrist. 
 While most individuals will likely not experience serious illness related to COVID-19, older residents and people with certain health conditions put them at higher risk of developing a serious or life-threatening illness.

Before anyone thinks "oh, it's just a few days, remember that a lot of people who work in "bars, nightclubs, coffee ships. . . " and the like make their money on tips, not so much on their wages.

Indeed, it's a long debated but firmly entrenched aspect of the American economy that the food and beverage industry is exempt from the hourly wage laws, and so people really make up their money in their tips.  A person can argue for and against that. . . you won't be getting any rude disinterested French waiters for example, but it is hard on them in various ways.  When they aren't working, even if their employer keeps paying them (and most won't get paid as their employers won't be able to pay them while their not working, and they can't 'work from home') they're really in a bad way.

So are their employers, I'd note.  In lots of industries people can actually work from home.  Indeed, while I'll take it up in another post, my prediction is that this epidemic provides a push in a technological direction, the longer it goes on, that we'll never come back from. There are already entire industries where almost all of their employees work from home.  Insurance adjusters often do, for example. But right now, a lot of lawyers and their staffs are also.  Once people become acclimated to that, a lot of businesses are going to ponder if they need a central office any bigger than a closet big enough to house a server.

Anyhow, right now a lot of tavern owners and restaurateurs are going to be really hurting.  For that matter, a lot of other small businesses will as well.  While a person can argue that if we'd had a more distributist economy (and I'll do that in some other post) we might not be i this situation now, we're in it, and smaller businesses have less to fall back on in many instances.

2.  Oil is in the dumper

As if that isn't bad enough, yesterday oil was at $22.00/bbl.

Nobody on earth can make money on oil at that price.  It's absurd.  But it's really going to be hard on the U.S. Petroleum industry if it keeps up much longer.  Layoffs are already happening in Texas, I'm told.

3.  Coal layoffs

One of the mines laid off 60 people last Wednesday, the Tribune reports.

So the economy in Gillette, which is part of Wyoming's overall economy, must be reeling.  Low oil, coal layoffs, and Covid-19. 

And of course coal layoffs come due to low production, and that means that funding the schools, which of course are closed right now, becomes all the harder.  When those schools open back up, I have to wonder how many parents are pondering their next move, literally.

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