The calm before the storm?

In today's Tribune it's reported that the anticipated oil development in Converse County will require approximately 8,000 laborers.  According to a rule of thumb, which is just that (i.e., maybe not real, but probably something to it) this means that about 16,000 people will be coming in to serve them.  So, the speculation is, the area is going to see an increase in people to the tune of 24,000.

For a region like Denver, that doesn't mean much, but for Wyoming in certainly does and long time Wyomingites, particularly those who have lived here most of their lives, let alone those who have been here from childhood, and more particularly those who were born here, that is at least to some degree worrisome.  While a lot of the political pundits in Wyoming, particularly those on the political right, always view such things as good in a chamber of commerce sort of way, average Wyomingites view such things as mixed blessings as they are.

Of course, a lot depends on what really occurs, and right now, we don't really know what will occur. A big oil development seems set to launch, but then we've seen some interesting ups and downs in the market over the past couple of decades.  Indeed, at a recent conference I attended in that giant oil town, Houston, it was noted that the 21st Century has experienced two oil crashes, the first one being part of the big crash that came at turn of the Bush-Obama Administrations, and being caused by it, and the second coming due to the price sets of the Saudi's a few years ago.  Such a thing could occur at any time, really, or for that matter the opposite could.  The constant stress in the Middle East, as we all know, could have some big impact at any time.  Or not.

Indeed, something interesting about the last crash is that it didn't really cause a drop in oil production.  It did see a drop in oil development.  The two are not the same.  That suggests that something has changed about the oil economy, but what it is, is not fully clear.  What seems to be the case is that consumption has entered a new domain as the world's dependence upon petroleum is declining. 

Not declining so much, of course, that the development will not occur now that petroleum is at about $70/bbl.

One thing that this will mean, should it get rolling, is that Gillette, Douglas, Lusk, and Casper are going to see some sort of stress and boom.  Each town likely sees itself in the crosshairs that way, but my guess is that Douglas will feel the impact more than the others, but they'll all see it.  Casper, being the big regional city that it is (although more on that in a post coming soon) will be uniquely affected, but then Douglas certainly will be as well.

Probably.

We'll all soon know, one way or another.