Somehow, the tallies have changed a bit since I last put them up, and I dare not put those up on my last entry as it's already growing rather large. I think the Guam results may not have been in when I last posted. Yes, Guam. Let's not forget that most US territories get to participate in selecting a nominee even though they cannot Constitutionally participate in the Presidential election as they were not states. Or I may simply have missed late adjustments (more likely).
Democrats: Needed to win, 2,383.
Clinton: 2,240 (524 of which are Superdelegates)
Sanders: 1,473 (40 of which are Superdelegates)
Republicans: Needed to win, 1,237.
Trump: 1,135 (of which 49 are unpledged delegates).
Cruz: 565 Cruz has suspended his campaign. (of which 19 are unpledged delegates)
Rubio: 168. Rubio has suspended his campaign.
Kasich: 154. Kasich has suspended his campaign
Carson: 8 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Bush: 4 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Fiorina: 1 Fiorina has dropped out of the race.
Paul: 1 Paul has dropped out of the race.
Commentary
With these adjusted tallies, both Clinton and Sanders gained, but Sanders gained more. Clinton only picked up one Superdelegate, but that points out Sanders problem. Clinton only has 183 left to go before she has the requisite number of delegates, but 524 of these delegates are soft, i.e. unpledged delegates. Sanders now is asserting he'll go all the way to the convention and assert the's entitled to a percentage of Superdelegates that matched his pledged delegates.
Trump actually lost a delegate since the last tally. Kasich gained one. This comes from an updated analysis by the NYT of the West Virginia primary. What's interesting there is that names appearing on the Republican ballots, including even Carson and Rubio, keep getting votes even though only Trump is now running.
The big news of the past week, in the GOP contest, was that Trump and Paul Ryan met and supposedly made peace in a result that was extremely predictable and which has a bit of a stage feel to it. Be that as it may, not all the of the Republicans are coming together by any means. Not at all. A fair number of conservatives are still rejecting Trump and there's every appearance they will throughout the entire race this year.
Indeed a debate has broken out in the GOP if a "not voting for Trump is a vote for Clinton" in the general election. A lot of Republicans are stating that now. But is it true? Like a lot of things, it just isn't that simple.
It would be clear that in states in play, which a lot more than normal will be this year, not voting for Trump probably is voting for Clinton, as a non vote in the American system isn't counted as "none of the above". If that option existed this year, it's likely "none of the above" would win. But in states that are going to go GOP anyway, like Wyoming, not voting for Trump isn't going to be a vote for Clinton, particularly if that vote goes to somebody else as a message. Likewise, where the GOP will go down in defeat anyway, that's also true. In any event, voting for Trump is voting for a party defined by Trump, which many Republicans are having a hard time reconciling to.
May 18, 2016
Oregon held its primary for both parties yesterday, and Kentucky held it for the Democrats. The new updated tallies:
Democrats: Needed to win, 2,383.
Clinton: 2,291 (524 of which are Superdelegates)
Sanders: 1,528 (40 of which are Superdelegates)
Republicans: Needed to win, 1,237.
Trump: 1,161 (of which 58 are unpledged delegates).
Cruz: 567 Cruz has suspended his campaign. (of which 18 are unpledged delegates)
Rubio: 168. Rubio has suspended his campaign.
Kasich: 159. Kasich has suspended his campaign
Carson: 8 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Bush: 4 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Fiorina: 1 Fiorina has dropped out of the race.
Paul: 1 Paul has dropped out of the race.
Commentary
Both of yesterday's primaries are significant for both parties.
On the Democratic side, even though he is largely treated by the Press as having already lost, Sanders picked up Oregon and Kentucky was basically a tie. In practical terms, both candidates advanced and because of the Democrats Superdelegate system, Clinton is closing in on the nomination. As can be seen she's far ahead of Sanders with only about 90 delegates left to go, but that's only because she has 524 superdelegates. In actual pledged delegates she as 1767 and Sanders has 1488. She's still ahead, but not nearly as close to the needed 2,383 as the superdelegates would appear to make her. Its no wonder that Sanders, who continues to beat Clinton time after time, feels the superdelegate system is unfair if the superdelegates do not go the way that the voters have. The press, however, does not seem to focus on this. With at least one big western state left to go, Sanders really remains fully in the race, as long as superdelegate tallies are ignored. Gaining the 300 votes he'd need to exceed Clinton is actually pretty doable as the Democrats have over 900 delegates left to pledge. It's also no wonder that Sanders supporters are starting to get angry.
On the Republican side, candidates who have dropped out of the race continue to pick up a few delegates nonetheless, which reflects that a lot of Republican voters remain unhappy with what has occurred in their party. In Oregon Cruz and Kasich each picked up three delegates in spite of not running there.
Commentary followup:
All of a sudden Bernie Sanders is getting a lot of criticism of the same type that Trump has for some time. This has spread to some of the pundits. Once again, while a person hates to assume its press bias, it is odd that now that it's apparent that Sanders is really serious (as if it hasn't been for a long time), and that he doesn't intend to drop out and maybe doesn't intend to go away and make nice, but will in fact keep campaigning for his agenda, he's drawing negative attention.
Some of this is because his supporters are getting very edgy in some instances, just as Trump's did under the same circumstances. But some of it is beyond that. For instance one column I read today accused him of being a racist.
Whatever else Bernie Sanders may be, I'm confident he's not a racist. That he'd get accused of that now strikes me as a little odd.
May 18, 2016
Oregon held its primary for both parties yesterday, and Kentucky held it for the Democrats. The new updated tallies:
Democrats: Needed to win, 2,383.
Clinton: 2,291 (524 of which are Superdelegates)
Sanders: 1,528 (40 of which are Superdelegates)
Republicans: Needed to win, 1,237.
Trump: 1,161 (of which 58 are unpledged delegates).
Cruz: 567 Cruz has suspended his campaign. (of which 18 are unpledged delegates)
Rubio: 168. Rubio has suspended his campaign.
Kasich: 159. Kasich has suspended his campaign
Carson: 8 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Bush: 4 Carson has suspended his campaign.
Fiorina: 1 Fiorina has dropped out of the race.
Paul: 1 Paul has dropped out of the race.
Commentary
Both of yesterday's primaries are significant for both parties.
On the Democratic side, even though he is largely treated by the Press as having already lost, Sanders picked up Oregon and Kentucky was basically a tie. In practical terms, both candidates advanced and because of the Democrats Superdelegate system, Clinton is closing in on the nomination. As can be seen she's far ahead of Sanders with only about 90 delegates left to go, but that's only because she has 524 superdelegates. In actual pledged delegates she as 1767 and Sanders has 1488. She's still ahead, but not nearly as close to the needed 2,383 as the superdelegates would appear to make her. Its no wonder that Sanders, who continues to beat Clinton time after time, feels the superdelegate system is unfair if the superdelegates do not go the way that the voters have. The press, however, does not seem to focus on this. With at least one big western state left to go, Sanders really remains fully in the race, as long as superdelegate tallies are ignored. Gaining the 300 votes he'd need to exceed Clinton is actually pretty doable as the Democrats have over 900 delegates left to pledge. It's also no wonder that Sanders supporters are starting to get angry.
On the Republican side, candidates who have dropped out of the race continue to pick up a few delegates nonetheless, which reflects that a lot of Republican voters remain unhappy with what has occurred in their party. In Oregon Cruz and Kasich each picked up three delegates in spite of not running there.
Commentary followup:
All of a sudden Bernie Sanders is getting a lot of criticism of the same type that Trump has for some time. This has spread to some of the pundits. Once again, while a person hates to assume its press bias, it is odd that now that it's apparent that Sanders is really serious (as if it hasn't been for a long time), and that he doesn't intend to drop out and maybe doesn't intend to go away and make nice, but will in fact keep campaigning for his agenda, he's drawing negative attention.
Some of this is because his supporters are getting very edgy in some instances, just as Trump's did under the same circumstances. But some of it is beyond that. For instance one column I read today accused him of being a racist.
Whatever else Bernie Sanders may be, I'm confident he's not a racist. That he'd get accused of that now strikes me as a little odd.
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