Bedouin in Palmyra, early 1940s
ISIL has taken Palmyra, a Syrian city with spectacular Roman ruins from the first century. The global fear is that what time and weather have not done, which is to erase Palmyra from the face of the earth, ISIL, under its extreme interpretation of the tenants of Islam. So extreme, in fact, that some time ago it issued a disapproval of important Islamic features in Mecca.
No ruin is worth human lives, but there is a bigger question at work here. And what that is, is this. Should we (the Western World) take on ISIL?
I think we have to.
The reason I think we have to, is that it is taking on us, and what we have to determine is how much ground we're prepared to lose before we can't tolerate losing any more.
I think there's been a very widespread assumption in the West that ISIL is so nutty that it will fail on its own accord. That might be true, long term, and it probably is true, but we have to ask, as part of that, how much damage are we willing to endure in the meantime. And as part of that we have to acknowledge that really nutty ideologies can be hugely attractive, even if nutty. Nazism was both evil and full blown whacky, and I think a lot in the developed world assumed that such an evil, nutty, ideology would fail in such a civilized nation as Germany. It probably would have, but left unchecked that probably would have taken decades. Communism provides another example. Soviet Communism never made any sense at all, but it did manage to make a 70 year run in the Russian Empire, killing millions in the process.
ISIL may look minor in comparison with either of those, but I'm not so sure it really is. It's proven that it actually can exhibit state craft, perhaps at least as effectively as the actual sovereigns in the region in some instances. It's gone from being a radical Islamic militia to an actual army that's not terribly badly equipped, in the regional context. That army seems to be able to hold its own and even defeat the Iraqi army, and to hold its own and occasionally defeat the Syrian army. It's administering a government in the areas that it's captured, and right now it probably controls more ground that the governments in Baghdad and Damascus do. We don't notice it much here, but it's ideology seems to having a real impact in the Islamic regions of the former USSR where there's an ongoing problem of young men being drawn into it and leaving to fight in Iraq and Syria. It's pretty clear that immigrant Islamic populations in Europe have some people who go back and forth into it, and its hardcore Islamic message has proven attractive enough to some in the Western world that there are converts who are drawn into it. In some ways, what we're seeing is sort of analogous to Communism in the 20s and 30s, when it was really attractive to certain groups and during which it seemed to be expanding.
I don't think we can ignore it in the West, therefore, as I think there is a real risk that it'll win in both Iraq and Syria. If it does, it's not going to be content with that and we'll have to deal with an incredibly violent, aggressive, rich, regime that would be hugely problematic to the entire region, and which would sponsor some violence well beyond its borders. The questions is, I guess, what to do.
And as part of that problem, we have to acknowledge that this is a religious war. We don't want it to be, but because our opponents conceive of it that way, it is.
I'm sure I don't have the solution, but what I think we probably have to concede is that this might be a long one. But we probably also have to strangle ISIL in the cradle of Iraq and Syria right now in the hopes that kills it off. The Iraqi army appears completely worthless, and the only fighting force worth its salt seems to be the Kurds. I don't think any Western nation, ourselves included, are willing to put boots on the ground. The only regional one that clearly is, is Iran, and that presents its own problems.
Pretty grim situation.
I think we have to.
The reason I think we have to, is that it is taking on us, and what we have to determine is how much ground we're prepared to lose before we can't tolerate losing any more.
I think there's been a very widespread assumption in the West that ISIL is so nutty that it will fail on its own accord. That might be true, long term, and it probably is true, but we have to ask, as part of that, how much damage are we willing to endure in the meantime. And as part of that we have to acknowledge that really nutty ideologies can be hugely attractive, even if nutty. Nazism was both evil and full blown whacky, and I think a lot in the developed world assumed that such an evil, nutty, ideology would fail in such a civilized nation as Germany. It probably would have, but left unchecked that probably would have taken decades. Communism provides another example. Soviet Communism never made any sense at all, but it did manage to make a 70 year run in the Russian Empire, killing millions in the process.
ISIL may look minor in comparison with either of those, but I'm not so sure it really is. It's proven that it actually can exhibit state craft, perhaps at least as effectively as the actual sovereigns in the region in some instances. It's gone from being a radical Islamic militia to an actual army that's not terribly badly equipped, in the regional context. That army seems to be able to hold its own and even defeat the Iraqi army, and to hold its own and occasionally defeat the Syrian army. It's administering a government in the areas that it's captured, and right now it probably controls more ground that the governments in Baghdad and Damascus do. We don't notice it much here, but it's ideology seems to having a real impact in the Islamic regions of the former USSR where there's an ongoing problem of young men being drawn into it and leaving to fight in Iraq and Syria. It's pretty clear that immigrant Islamic populations in Europe have some people who go back and forth into it, and its hardcore Islamic message has proven attractive enough to some in the Western world that there are converts who are drawn into it. In some ways, what we're seeing is sort of analogous to Communism in the 20s and 30s, when it was really attractive to certain groups and during which it seemed to be expanding.
I don't think we can ignore it in the West, therefore, as I think there is a real risk that it'll win in both Iraq and Syria. If it does, it's not going to be content with that and we'll have to deal with an incredibly violent, aggressive, rich, regime that would be hugely problematic to the entire region, and which would sponsor some violence well beyond its borders. The questions is, I guess, what to do.
And as part of that problem, we have to acknowledge that this is a religious war. We don't want it to be, but because our opponents conceive of it that way, it is.
I'm sure I don't have the solution, but what I think we probably have to concede is that this might be a long one. But we probably also have to strangle ISIL in the cradle of Iraq and Syria right now in the hopes that kills it off. The Iraqi army appears completely worthless, and the only fighting force worth its salt seems to be the Kurds. I don't think any Western nation, ourselves included, are willing to put boots on the ground. The only regional one that clearly is, is Iran, and that presents its own problems.
Pretty grim situation.
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