Monday, May 24, 2021

May 24, 1921. Clarkston, Washington and Lewiston, Idaho, Bulhoek Massacre, and the Northern Irish vote.

Clarkston, Washington and Lewiston,  Idaho.  May 24, 1921.

Nothing stays the same, of course.

While I haven't been to Clarkson/Lewiston, I dare say its changed.  I'd take the 1921 variant over today's, almost certainly.

Slightly colorized version of the same photograph.

On this day in 1921 voters in Northern Ireland ovewhelmingly voted for unionist candidates.

In South Africa a 163 Xhosa followers of a Xhosa excommunicated lay Methodist minister were killed in what is known as the Bulhoek Massacre.  They were killed by heavily armed police in a battle whose beginning is confused.  The community was made of a group known as the Israelites who followed the beliefs of their founders apocalyptical predictions. 

Monday Morning Repeats for the Week of August 7, 2011. Prejudice.

On August 10, 2011, I ran an item on prejudice that dealt more specifically with the history of religious bias in the US.  I've dealt with the same story elsewhere on this blog, but this might be the first time I ran an item on it.

Prejudice


Sunday, May 23, 2021

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist Part 15. Rising posts, Billie Eilish Interests, "Romeo and Juliet", Bill and Melinda, Kardashian statutes, Rest Stops, Not taking a bath, and big cats.


I wonder what it was?

This trailing post series sometimes makes it up to the top post for the past week, but the last one did in less than six hours.  Here it is:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgist Part 14. The Industrial Revolution and Child Care and other musings.

I wonder what shot it up so fast?  The title issue was the Biden economic infrastructure proposal and its items on child care, but way down in the text Billie Eilish being on the cover of British Vogue was discussed.

It had to be one or the other, the two being oddly related in a way.

Eilish commentary

One thing I didn't note in depth is that Eilish apparently made the following comments:

One message she is sending is that there's a lot of "sexual misconduct" in the entertainment industry. This isn't news, but at least she's saying something.  Her comment to British Vogue basically read as an entitlement of sexual immorality, which would actually be a species of real progress coming from that quarter.  Perhaps its not entirely surprising, however, given that her generation has pretty much had it with things Boomer, of which the Sexual Revolution is part.

She noted it that this problem include the abuse of boys.  Something rarely noted.

"Romeo and Juliet"

A post that predictably shot right up was the recent one on the 2022 Wyoming Congressional election.  In that series I track what's going on, but a post regarding what occurred in Florida in 1983 is what shot it to the top, where it remains.

People who are interested in the story can read it there, but what it entails is far right, pro Trump, anti Cheney, very loud Laramie County state Senator Anthony Bouchard having been in a sexual relationship with a 14 year old when he was an 18 year old.  As the story involves sex, and a scandal, and  sex scandal, and tragedy, it predicable went right to the top.

There are a lot of peculiar angles to this, to say the least.  Anyhow, I got around to finally watching the video that Bouchard released on this and I have to say that I'm singularly unimpressed.  Indeed, the opposite is true.  

For starters, Bouchard captions the video as "taking on" the "fake news media". There's nothing fake about this story, however.  He did exactly what he's accused of.  He doesn't really even come out acknowledging that there's something wrong about an 18 year old screwing a 14 year old, at least not in the four minutes of it I watched.  I didn't watch the rest.  He does give himself, and his late wife, credit for not aborting the baby, and I'd give them credit for that too, however.

Anyhow, somehow we've gone from a situation in which people generally acknowledge their faults fairly seriously, even if only when caught, to sort of bypassing them and blaming them on the media. The media isn't prefect and I think its biased, but Bouchard, in getting ahead of this story, didn't really get ahead of it.

Quite a few people are making comparison to the news stories about Matt Gaetz who came out with the absurd line that he always treated his trysts well.  I don't know if the allegations about him and minors are true, but it used to be the case that, as the conservative party, the Republicans stood for morality.  Clearly that's a mixed bag now, which I suppose is proof we've sunk so low in the Sexual Revolution that there isn't any.

Or maybe it tells us something about current populist politics.

Screen Free Week

This just happened recently.

I had to learn about it from a cartoon, which I had to learn on line, as my local newspaper doesn't publish a Monday print edition, only an electronic one.

Of course, I didn't observe it, but then I really couldn't.  So much of what I do is on line anymore, even though I really wish it wasn't.

Bill and Melinda Gates

They announced their divorce on Twitter.

I don't know anything about them, but it's a real surprise.  She's a Catholic.  He's not, I believe, but had supported her and participated in their parish.

No details were provided at first, and of course we aren't entitled to any.  It's disappointing no matter what you view on them is really.  Indeed, given their vast wealth and respective ages, I thought at first that it really doesn't make any sense at all. If they weren't getting along, was my thought, they probably should just have separated.

Well it turns out that Gates too has a bit of a roving eye.  Sheesh.

Statuesque

The statuesque Kim Kardashian, the most famous member of the most famous Armenian American family, famous for being famous, is in a bit of hot water for importing a Roman statute.

It may be just me, but I think there's something deep inside the half Armenian members of this family that's harkening them back to the old country and old ways of life.

False Positive

Demographers are noting that the US birth rate is below replacement level, a good thing, but the US is hardly at the point where its population is falling, which would also be a good thing, due to a massive unsustainable immigration rate.

Reporting on this topic is always bizarre.  There's only so much room before a population negatively impacts the environment and itself.  And the concept of a "demographic winter" in which there aren't enough youngsters to support a benighted retired population is completely false, being based on a completely static technological situation which in reality has never existed.  Indeed, it's pretty clear that our technology has advanced to the point its putting people out of work.

Riding the elephant to death

Donald Trump has launched a website entitled From the Desk of Donald J. Trump.

Nobody seems to be paying that much attention to it, however.  Frankly, the fact that it doesn't burst out onto Twitter, where he's banned, means you have to take the effort to subscribe to it, which only the really convinced are going to to.

Belgium Advances

A Belgian farmer found a border marker between his country and France annoying so he moved it.

He's been asked to move it back.

Bathing less often

The New York Times reports that people bathed less during the Coronavirus lockdowns and quite a few of them do not plan to return to more frequent bathing.

Folks actually probably don't need to bathe as often as they do, which has been known for a long time.  But we've already crossed the bar on slovenliness in the US so this probably isn't a good thing.

The Eyes Of Texas

At some point, people are getting upset as its fun to have righteous anger over something, as long as it isn't something that doesn't really matter. The Eyes of Texas flap is just one such example.

Tensions boil at UT-Austin over "The Eyes of Texas", where students are refusing to work and a man with a gun crashed a virtual event
A student group was hosting an event with a UT-Austin professor about the song when a man entered the online Zoom call with his face covered, holding what appeared to be a large gun.

Meanwhile, real problems go unaddressed. . . 

Temporary Relief

Reopening of the Rest Stops

 

Governor Gordon Authorizes Funding to Temporarily Reopen 9 Rest Areas for the Summer Travel Season

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –  Governor Mark Gordon has directed the Wyoming Department of Transportation (WYDOT) and Wyoming Office of Tourism (WOT) to partner to temporarily reopen and operate nine previously closed rest areas for at least the duration of the 2021 tourist season.

“With the summer season just around the corner, I’m glad we will be able to reopen these facilities to travelers,” Governor Gordon said. “We are glad to have this chance to find a temporary solution.”

WYDOT and WOT along with the Governor's office will work together to secure a temporary federal funding source to allow the nine rest areas throughout the state to reopen. 

"WYDOT is extremely grateful to Governor Gordon and Director Shober for identifying new federal funds to temporarily reopen our rest areas for the tourist season," said WYDOT Director K. Luke Reiner. 

Officials closed the rest areas in June 2020 as a cost-savings measure due to budgetary shortfalls. 

 The nine rest areas include:

  • Lusk on US 18
  • Guernsey on US 26
  • Greybull on US 16
  • Moorcroft on I-90
  • Star Valley on US 89
  • Sundance on I-25
  • Upton on US 16
  • Orin Jct on I-25
  • Chugwater on I-25

“Each of these nine rest areas are a valuable tourism tool, said Diane Shober, executive director of the Wyoming Office of Tourism. “Certainly, a clean facility is important to the visitor experience, but it is also a powerful marketing platform to distribute travel guides and other trip-planning resources. As travelers are stretching their legs, they are also gathering information on local events, attractions, restaurants, campgrounds and lodging, which all can lead to extended stays and increase visitor spending.”

The rest areas should reopen ahead of Memorial Day weekend.

-END-

Oh think goodness.

"It takes a big cat to eat a ton of tuna"

So went an old answer to the question "what do you know".  It doesn't seem to be around any more, but there was news about a really big cat.

Newly Identified Species of Saber-Toothed Cat Was So Big It Hunted Rhinos in America

On big cats, a tiger being kept by a felon escaped its house in Houston.  The large cat was captured and is safe, but this is the second tiger in Houston story in recent years.

What the heck?  Is Petco just out of cats in Texas?

Virtue Signaling 

NBC has cancelled broadcasting of the Golden Globes for lack of diversity.

Nobody really pays any attention to these awards anymore, but this entire flap is really virtue signaling in the extreme. An industry which closed a blind eye to sexual misconduct for years is now missed at the Hollywood foreign press, which gives the Golden Globes.  M'eh.

What might be noted, in terms of diversity, is that India has the largest film industry in the world, not the US.  And our neighbor to the south, Mexico, has had an excellent and vibrant film industry for decades.

I'm sure the Screen Actors Guild will be pointing all this out really soon, of course, even if that diminishes its perceived importance.

Bouncing

Ocasio-Cortez on Taylor Greene: 'These are the kinds of people that I threw out of bars all the time'

Greene ought to be bounced from Congress, but that's not going to happen.

I'll be clear that she's not the only detestable Congressman by any means, and neither party has a lock hold on detestable political figures.  But its pretty clear at this point that Greene is a type of live action troll.  Like Internet trolls, she runs around saying stupid stuff and doing stupid things as it gets her attention.

Don't feed the trolls.

Speaking of stupidity, here's another Greene headline:

Marjorie Taylor Green compares mask mandate to the holocaust.

Congress has the ability to refuse to seat somebody, or to boot them out if they're really over the top. Greene should be sent packing.

Yikes

Freshly Made Plutonium From Outer Space Found On Ocean Floor

May 23, 1941. Portents.



Think of it. Three high school graduates. . . from 1941. .. graduating right into what will soon be the largest war the US has ever participated in.

On that day British destroyers HMS Kashmir and HMS Kelly were sunk by aircraft off of Crete.

HMS Kashmir.

HMS Kelly at Gibraltar.

The Kelly was commanded by Louis Mountbatten, a member of the British Royal Family.

King George II of Greece left Crete for Egypt.  He wouldn't remain there, as Egyptian King Farouk's foreign minister favored Italy, in spite of Egypt being effectively occupied by the British, or perhaps because of that, and would go to the UK.

May 23, 1921. Cities on the Red River, Harding on Memorial Day, the Seeger's go camping.


Moorhead, Minnesota and Fargo, North Dakota, are a across the Red River from each other.  On this day in 1921 they were photographed. 



In Leipzig, war crimes trials commenced. Only twelve Germans would stand trial, but the concept of trying an enemy combatant was a new one which became established as a result of the Great War.  The results were mixed.

Also on this day, President Harding issued a Memorial Day address, which stated:

Our republic has been at war before, it has asked and received the supreme sacrifices of its sons and daughters, and faith in America has been justified. Many sons and daughters made the sublime offering and went to hallowed graves as the Nation’s defenders. But we never before sent so many to battle under the flag in foreign land, never before was there the impressive spectacle of thousands of dead returned to find eternal resting place in the beloved homeland…

These dead know nothing of our ceremony today. They sense nothing of the sentiment or the tenderness which brings their wasted bodies to the homeland for burial close to kin and friends and cherished associations. These poor bodies are but the clay tenements once possessed of souls which flamed in patriotic devotion, lighted new hopes on the battle grounds of civilization, and in their sacrifices sped on to accuse autocracy before the court of eternal justice.

We are not met for them, though we love and honor and speak a grateful tribute. It would be futile to speak to those who do not hear or to sorrow for those who cannot sense it or to exalt those who cannot know. But we can speak for country, we can reach those who sorrowed and sacrificed through their service, who suffered through their going, who glory with the Republic through their heroic achievements, who rejoice in the civilization, their heroism preserved. Every funeral, every memorial, every tribute is for the living–an offering in compensation of sorrow. When the light of life goes out there is a new radiance in eternity, and somehow the glow of it relieves the darkness which is left behind.
Never a death but somewhere a new life; never a sacrifice but somewhere an atonement; never a service but somewhere and somehow an achievement. These had served, which is the supreme inspiration in living. They have earned everlasting gratitude, which is the supreme solace in dying…

I would not wish a Nation for which men are not willing to fight and, if need be, to die, but I do wish for a nation where it is not necessary to ask that sacrifice. I do not pretend that millennial days have come, but I can believe in the possibility of a Nation being so righteous as never to make a war of conquest and a Nation so powerful in righteousness that none will dare invoke her wrath. I wish for us such an America. These heroes were sacrificed in the supreme conflict of all human history. They saw democracy challenged and defended it. They saw civilization threatened and rescued it. They saw America affronted and resented it. They saw our Nation’s rights imperiled and stamped those rights with a new sanctity and renewed security.

We shall not forget, no matter whether they lie amid the sweetness and the bloom of the homeland or sleep in the soil they crimsoned. Our mindfulness, our gratitude, our reverence shall be in the preserved Republic and maintained liberties and the supreme justice for which they died. 

Warren G. Harding

 The professor Charles Seeger family went camping.


The baby in the photo is Pete Seeger.

The Aerodrome: Why Unidentified Aerial Phenomena are almost certainly not aliens

The Aerodrome: Why Unidentified Aerial Phenomena are almost certa...:  

Why Unidentified Aerial Phenomena are almost certainly not aliens.

 Allow me to have a large element of skepticism.

If you follow the news at all, you've been reading of "leaked" Navy videos of UFOs, followed by official confirmation from Navy pilots along the lines "gosh, we don't know what the heck those things are".

Yeah. . . well. . . 

What we know for sure is that in recent years, Unidentified Aerial Phenomena have been interacting with ships of the U.S. Navy as well as Navy aircraft.  Video of them has been steadily "leaked" for several years, and the service, which normally likes to keep the most mundane things secret, has been pretty active in babbling about it.

Oh. . . and not just that.

The Navy also has applied for a patent for technology that appears to offer impossible high speed drives for aircraft, and acting to force through the patents when the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office looked like it was going to say "oh bull".  The patenting Navy agent, moreover, a mysteriously named and mysterious scientist, has written babbly papers that are out there, but not well circulated.

So, what's going on?

Gaslighting, most likely.

To those who follow international developments, the US and the Peoples Republic of China are, quite frankly, sliding towards war in a way that reminiscent of Imperial Japan and the US in the late 1930s and early 1940s.  China acts like a late 19th Century imperial power and is building up its naval forces in an alarming way.  China is a land power and has no real need whatsoever for a defensive navy.  The only real use of a navy for China is offensive, or to pose a threat as it could be offensive.

And China has been busy posing a threat.  It's using its navy to muscle in on anything it can in the region.  It's constantly at odds with Vietnam off the latter's coast.  It's threatening the Philippines, whose erratic president shows no signs of backing down to China, and its been so concerning to Japan that Japan is now revising its defense posture.  Most of all, it's been threatening to Taiwan, which it regards as a breakaway province which it sort of is.

The problem with a nation flexing its naval muscle is that sooner or later, it goes from flexing to "I wonder how this stuff really works?"  Almost all totalitarian powers with big navies get to that point and there's no reason to believe that China won't.  Given that, the US (and as noted Japan) have been planning to fight China.  

This has resulted in a plan to overhaul the Marine Corps with a Chinese war specifically in mind, and the Navy, upon whom the brunt of any Chinese action would fall, at least initially, has been planning for that as well. And the Navy is worried.

As it should be.

The United States Navy has been a aircraft carrier centric navy ever since December 7, 1941 when it became one by default.  And its been the world's most power navy as a carrier based navy.  Carries have allowed the United States to project power around the world in a way that no other country can.  But in the age of missiles, a real question now exists and is being debated on whether the age of carriers is ending.

Plenty of defense analysts say no, but plenty say yes.  Truth is, we just don't know, and absent a major naval contest with a major naval power, which right now there isn't, we won't know.  But China is attempting to become that power and it has the ability to act pretty stoutly in its own region right now.

So how does this relate to Unidentified Aerial Phenomena?

The U.S. military has a long history of using the UFO phenomena/fandom for disinformation.  It notoriously did this in a pretty cruel way in at least one instance in the 60s/70s in which it completely wrecked the psychological health of a victim of a disinformation campaign that it got rolling, even planting a bogus crashed UFO to keep it rolling.  Beyond that, it's been pretty willing to use the stories of "weird alien craft" to cover its own developments, with plenty of the weird alien craft simply being developments in the US aerospace industry.

Given that, and the fact that at the same time the service purports to be taking this really seriously, it continually leaks information about it, and it doesn't seem really all that bothered, the best evidence here is something else is going on, of which there are a lot of possibilities.  These range from the service developing some really high tech drones and testing them against the same Navy units (they're usually the same ones) again and again to just having the ability to make this stuff all up.

So why the leaks?

If the service is experimenting with high tech drones, and if the experiment is going well, leaking the information may serve as a warning to potential enemies, notably the PRC, that "look, we have something so nifty our own Navy can't do squat about it. . .let alone yours".  Being vague about it probably serves the US  interest better than simply coming out with "Nanner, nanner. . surface fleets are obsolete . . .".  After all, once we admit we have them, at that point the race to figure them out is really on.

On the other hand, maybe we're just making the whole thing up.  We have been worried in the past about other nations development super high tech aircraft, notably the Soviet Union, then Russia post USSR, and now China.  Running around patenting mysterious things and having weird things going on may be a disinformation campaign designed to make a potential enemy a little hesitant.  And they'd hesitate, because. . . .

Maybe we really have developed some super high tech craft, either manned or unmanned, that are now so advanced that we feel pretty comfortable testing them against a control set, that being, at first, the same U.S. Navy units again and again.  A recent report indicates that other navies are now experiencing the same thing, and we might frankly be doing the same thing with them.  There's no reason to believe that a nation that would do U2 overflights over hostile nations in the 60s, and then SR71 flights the same way, which tested the spread of biological weapons by actually spreading biological agents off of the coast of California, and which tested the intelligence use of LSD by giving it to unsuspecting CIA employees, might not do this.  

Indeed, it'd make for a pretty good test.

Sunday Morning Scene. Churches of the West: First Church of the Nazarene, Casper Wyoming

Churches of the West: First Church of the Nazarene, Casper Wyoming

First Church of the Nazarene, Casper Wyoming


This church is one of a couple of protestant churches located in the Allendale region of Casper, Wyoming.  I'm not sure of its vintage, but by appearance it likely was built in the 1950s, about the same time that Allendale expanded as what was originally an unincorporated portion of Casper.

The Church of the Nazarene is an offshoot of Methodism.

Saturday, May 22, 2021

Best Posts of the Week of May 16, 2012

 The best posts of the week of May 16, 2012.

The GOP. What in the world is going on?




May 22, 1921. Posing

May 22, 1941. Disasters

Fiji under heavy air attack.

The HMS Fiji, Gloucester and Greyhound were attacked by the Luftwaffe off of Crete, and sunk.  Some regard this as the first ship v. air battle.  The Royal Navy was attempting to intercept a German troop carrying convoy, which they were aware of due to Ultra intercepts, but it had been delayed by the late arrival of its Italian escort.

Croatian Jews were ordered to wear yellow Stars of David.
 

May 22, 1921. Posing

Scottish soprano opera singer Mary Garden (1874-1967) with Muriel McCormack (1902-1959) daughter of Harold Fowler McCormick and granddaughter of John Rockefeller. They sailed for Boulogne on the Holland-America liner Rotterdam. York Tribune, Tribune 5/22/21
 

Friday, May 21, 2021

On the 100th anniversary of Wonder Bread, a blog mirror post on white bread.

 

Not Wonder Bread.  19th Century Persian bakery.

Why did our ancestors prefer white bread to wholegrains?

As a note, as I added down below on the thread on May 21, 1921, I don't like Wonder Bread.  But I do like white bread and I'm truly not keen on whole grain bread.

My mother was. She'd buy really grainy breads and then slather slices of it with peanut butter.  Ick.

Anyhow, a scholarly article by a scholar packed with densely (which any bread my mother baked also was. . . i.e., dense) with information, such as this:

For most of history, after the shift to agriculture, a large proportion of the world’s population depended on grains such as wheat, rice, corn (maize), barley, oats, rye, or millet for as much as 70-90% of their calories. This would have been true of farm laborers and their wives (and that’s what most of our ancestors would have been).

Indeed, in the current craze of the Keto diet, which apparently avoids all breads like the plague, this is something worth considering.  Humans have been eating bread for a really darned long time.  In fact, in another one of those "d'oh" moments that was published the other day, it turns out that Neanderthals, i.e., Home Sapien Neanderthalensis, ate piles of carbs.

Well of course they did.  They were, after all. . . people.

My mother also made a lot of bread, fairly badly, with oatmeal, which became sort of a commercial trend in later years.  And she used lots of barley for thickeners in stuff, such as stew.  I was surprised to hear a comment on a Medieval history podcast a year ago or so that this was a Medieval practice and that modern people wouldn't know what that tastes like.

I do.

Anyhow, this article is really good on the switch from whole grain breads to white bread.  I highly recommend it.

As a slight aside, Wonder Bread is mentioned in the article but not dwelt on.  The article notes how "Wonder Bread" came, during the 1960s and 1970s, to be sort of a symbol of a bland American whiteness, ethnicity wise, during the rise of the counterculture.  That's really unfair to the product (which I'll note that I don't personally like), as bread pretty much crosses color lines and ethnicities.  Indeed, that's more symbolic I think of the odd American cultural trait of associating food and substances with everything, which is why we now hair care products that advertise what's really a food substance as being in them.

Anyhow, when looking up Wonder Bread for the May 21, 1921 post, I tried to find an advertisement dating back that far and couldn't.  But I did hit up on a lot of advertisements, and I was surprised to learn that Wonder Bread's straight arrow reputation may be a bit overdone.  At least up to the 1960s, it like to feature shapely women in its advertisements wearing swimsuits and the like.  In at least one advertisement of the 40s and 50s it plopped a mid teens teenage girl in an advertisement wearing as little as legally possible with the promise, more or less, that Wonder Bread would help turn her into a bombshell.  In the 60s it ran an entire campaign based on the promise that sandwiches made by spouse aspiring women with Wonder Bread were "boy traps" or "date traps".  Not exactly kid stuff, and more than a little weird.

May 21, 1941. SS Robin Moor Sunk, O'ooham Resist


The SS Robin Moor was sunk by the German submarine U-69 even though German U-boats at the time had been instructed not to sink ships in certain areas in order not to provoke the United States into entering the war prior to the invasion of the Soviet Union.  The Robin Moor was flying U.S. colors and was identified as a neutral ship prior to being sunk.  The Germans allowed the crew of the unescorted ship, on its way to Mozambique, to evacuate before it was sunk.  The ships departure had been apparently revealed to the Germans by a U.S. spy in the United States.  The motivation of the U-boat's commander has been questioned, given as he was operating contrary to orders.

The sinking resulted in some controversy, but the materials it was carrying could have been regarded as war materials even though the ship itself was not engaged in supplying the British forces.

The German government ordered the United States to remove its diplomats from Paris by June 10.  The French government at the time was of course headquartered in Vichy.

On the same day the Royal Navy prevented seaborne German forces from landing on Crete, but the destroyer HMS Juno was sunk by the Italian air force.

The Soviet Union's Central Committee War Section met, resulting in an argument between Stalin and the head of Soviet intelligence, the latter who maintained the Germans were about to invade the USSR.  The argument resulted in that latter figure being arrested and shot.  Amazingly Stalin didn't suffer the same fate when it was soon learned how wrong he was.

A theater strike commenced in Norway over the revocation of working permits for six actors who refused to perform in German controlled radio.  The strike was not a success and ultimately ended with the Germans taking full control of Norwegian theaters.

A dispute with Native American O'ooham leader Pia Machita ended in Arizona with his arrest for inciting his people to avoid conscription.  He and his followers had been on the run since the prior October for resisting the draft, at which time they had been raided by Federal authorities.

The O'ooham band that Pia Machita was part of was very small but was uniquely active in its views on the authority of  the United States.  He did not recognize the Gadsen Purchase and his band refused to assimilate.  While they were small in numbers, the US government feared that their resistance to conscription would spread to other tribes.

May 21, 1921. Funeral of Chief Justice Edward Douglass White.


United States Supreme Court Justice Edward Douglass White's funeral was held on this day in 1921.

He was from Louisiana and had died two days earlier.  He was a surprise nomination to the Supreme Court by Grover Cleveland who had twice attempted to nominate New Yorkers before him.  

White was Jesuit educated and therefore not surprisingly a Catholic.  He's served in the Confederate forces during the Civil War, but in a capacity that's now hopelessly vague.  He was taken prisoner near the end of the war.  Due to his Confederate service, a statute in Washington D.C. was the subject of protests in August, 2020, even though very little is actually known about his wartime service.

Wonder Bread went on the market on this day in 1941.  Personally, I've never been really keen on it, but its an undoubted commercial success.

Thursday, May 20, 2021

May 20, 1941. The Germans Invade Crete From The Air

Maj. Gen. Freyberg during the invasion of Crete.  Freyberg was an eclectic New Zealander who was a dentist by training and reputedly had been serving as a Captain in Pancho Villa's forces in 1914 when the Great War broke out, after which he resigned as that position and traveled to England to join the British forces, earning traveling money on the way by winning a swimming match in Los Angeles and a boxing match in New York.  He won the Victoria Cross during World War One and even lead a late war cavalry charge.  A celebrated figure in New Zealand, he became its first New Zealand born Governor General after the war, but frankly his World War Two generalship was spotty and he is one of the collection of British Empire generals that have lead historians of other nations to conclude that the British, in World War Two, had to get by with lessers in senior command as that's all they had left.

And they did it by air.

Today in World War II History—May 20, 1941

Parachute assault on Crete

It was a bold move, and a costly one, but perhaps an example of necessity being the mother of invention, as Germany lacked a significant marine troop landing capacity and Hitler had forbade the use of troops that might delay the invasion of the Soviet Union.  So, the use of the Luftwaffe's paratroopers was made.

The operation was, statistically, an oversized German success with the Allies taking far more causalities in every sense than the Germans and the Germans taking Crete.  The battle was, moreover, a British failure as much as it was a German success as the British had left airfields undefended.  They had additionally withdrawn the RAF in advance in anticipation of the German assault.  The Germans made use of the airfield for troop insertion and landed not only airborne troops, but mountain troops as well.  The Italians ultimately landed some troops from the sea.  It's been widely pondered, and concluded, that the British could have won the battle if they'd fought it more wisely, a conclusion that the British military recognized itself at the time.  All  in all, in terms of a realistic assessment, it was a stunning German airborne success and a stunning British military failure.

Be that as it may, British resistance was so marked that the Germans concluded that future largescale airborne operations were impossible. They were not prepared for the paratrooper casualties they did take and, moreover, they were not prepared for the rate of loss of air crews.  Their post battle conclusions are baffling in retrospect, and they must have simply been expecting the operation to be a cakewalk, perhaps over impressed with all of their prior military success.

Ironically, the Allies concluded, correctly, the very opposite from the same battle.  The invasion marked the end of the really largescale use of German airborne.  It also marked the real emphasis in the Allies on airborne troops for the same purpose.  In a very real sense, the massive Allied airborne operations of 1944 owe their origin to this battle.

Also of note, Cretan civilian participation in the battle was marked, with many civilians participating in combat on their own initiative with whatever they had at hand.  This shocked the Germans and resulted in reprisals.

Civil Defense Logo.

With German paratroopers descending on Crete, perhaps it was a good day for the Executive Order being issued that created the Office of Civilian Defense.  That office was created on this day in 1941.

On this day, the interior of Ebbets Field was photographed.






Wednesday, May 19, 2021

May 19, 1941. Allied Victory In Ethiopia

Italian forces in Ethiopia surrendered.

Today in World War II History—May 19, 1941

This would stand as the first major Allied victor of World War Two.   Amazingly, Italian bitter enders carried on a guerilla campaign against the British until 1943, something which is little remembered, particularly in the context of general Italian ineffectiveness during the war.

The British took Fallujah in Iraq. 

On the same day, anticipating what was coming, the RAF withdrew from Crete.

In Japanese occupied Indochina, Vietnamese nationalist and communists formed the Viet Minh.  The movement was Communist dominated, although at this point it did include some other nationalist elements.  In some ways it was a revival of an organization that had been formed in the mid 1930s, in China, to oppose the French, but Japanese occupation sparked its immediate renewal.

The organization would go on to oppose the French after the war and would become solidly Communist by that time.

May 19, 1921. Harding signs the Emergency Quota Act.

On this day in 1921 President Harding signed the Emergency Quota Act, an immigration bill that, on an emergency basis, restricted immigrants by percentage of prior immigrants.  

Contemporary cartoon on the bill.

The quota system formally limited the number in any one year, to the same number as the prior year, by their nationality.  In 1924 the emergency bill was re enacted as a more permanent bill.  The emergency act was brought about by an increase in immigrants from southern and eastern Europe, which Congress wished to restrict.

Students from the University of Washington's College of Fisheries on a field expedition on this day in 1921.


Energy Daze

 The most recent issue of the AAPG Explorer has two articles on environmental matters that are really illuminating.

The first deals with the defeat of the XL Pipeline. Big win for the environment, right?

Nope, the opposite.

The pipeline was to ship heavy tar crude. The Canadians are shipping it, but by truck.  

So, a zero emission means of conveyance has been substituted for a high CO2 emission means of conveyance.  Big victory there.

The second is on the goal for zero net emissions by 2050.  The magazine analyzes it and concludes its absolutely impossible without nuclear.

Any clear thinking person with knowledge of energy generation already knew that, but there are a lot of people in this area who rely more on wishful thinking.

Working too much can kill you.

 Oh oh:

Global, regional, and national burdens of ischemic heart disease and stroke attributable to exposure to long working hours for 194 countries, 2000–2016: A systematic analysis from the WHO/ILO Joint Estimates of the Work-related Burden of Disease and Injury

Not that we didn't suspect that already.

The good news? Well, apparently Americans are routinely not overexposed to really long hours, contrary to our belief.

Individual experiences may vary.



Blog Mirror: Pharmacy in World War II: The Military

 

Pharmacy in World War II: The Military

Tuesday, May 18, 2021

U.S. Navy Enlisted Rate & Rating Insignia (WW2)

U.S. Marine Rank Insignia of WW2

U.S. Army Rank Insignia of WW2

The GOP. What in the world is going on?


Elizabeth Cheney has been booted from her leadership position in the House of Representatives.  Trump is back to issuing short missives in his somewhat bizarre syntax.

And yesterday I saw my first anti Cheney vehicle sticker. [1]

What is going on?  Aren't we past all this?

Well it appears not.

So, as a short primer to what's up, we offer this.

Liz Cheney.

Why was Liz Cheney booted from her leadership position?

Contrary to the way some would have it, Cheney hasn't been booted from the GOP No. 3 spot because she voted to impeach Donald Trump, or for his feelings that he has no place in the GOP. 

No, it was because she wouldn't shut up about her opinions.  

Her opinions are probably a lot more widely held than many in the House would ever admit. They're certainly widely held in the Senate.  She kept vocalizing them, that's the problem.

And her opinion is that the January 6 insurrection was just that, an attempt to subvert the 2020 election through a species of coup.

And she's correct.

Chances are that most House members who were in the House prior to 2020 agree with that.  Beyond that, some will privately admit that Donald Trump has been a disaster for the GOP.  He lost the White House.  He's directly responsible for losing the Senate. Under his watch the Republicans lost the House.  Now the most liberal Democratic Administration since LBJ, or maybe FDR, is in office and most Republican gains since the 1970s are set to be tossed out the door.

Jimmy Carter, for example, is still remembered as a Presidential disaster for such failings, although he personally is regarded as an honorable guy and Trump never really has been.  The Democrats dropped Carter like a hot rock after his defeat.

It's the Trump connection with the insurrection that Cheney refuses to keep quiet about.

Most well informed Republicans in government want people to be quiet about January 6.

Donald Trump, rich former Democrat who is from a rich family, who never served in the military, and who is a serial polygamist, who somehow has come to identify the values of the common man and still seemingly does, after presiding over a complete Republican loss of power at the national level.

Why won't Cheney be quiet?

Simple enough. Cheney fears that by failing to root out Trump and Trumpism, the 2024 election is going to be a repeat of January 6.  Trump and his backers will insist they won when they didn't, and a second coup will be attempted.

The worst case scenario on that is that it works and democracy will be dead in the U.S. [2]

There's a real chance of this.

The best case scenario, if that happens, is the end of the GOP, which at that point it would fully deserve.  The country would be completely ungovernable for at least four or more years, and the decent into this territory can't be climbed completely back out of.

Indeed, just from a pure "what, me worry?" approach, if Trump is the 2024 nominee, it'll mean at the end of the day a Kamala Harris two term presidency.  Those choosing Trump as the hill to die are on pretty much the best campaigners Harris has.

Why won't the Republicans join her?

The GOP is afraid of the Trump populists.

Trump brought a lot of populist into the party and they're "his base".  Not all of them are actually in the party, it should be noted. That's why the press loves to delight in interviewing a "life long Democratic voter who supports Trump. . . "

At any rate, all eyes are focused, in the GOP, on populists. . . and nobody else.  Indeed, the GOP is like a restaurant owner focused on the dining area while the long time workers are walking out the back door.

We'll get to that, but first. . . 

Um, what are populists?

Huey Long, Democratic populist of the 1930s.  While he's largely regarded as a gadfly, he retains some fans to this day.

Populism is one of those things that everyone tends to recognize when they see it, which doesn't mean its easy to define.

Indeed, we'll give you a variety of definitions.

In an article by the BBC:

In political science, populism is the idea that society is separated into two groups at odds with one another - "the pure people" and "the corrupt elite", according to Cas Mudde, author of Populism: A Very Short Introduction.

Merriam-Webster defines it as this:

Definition of populist

 (Entry 1 of 2)

1a member of a political party claiming to represent the common peopleespeciallyoften capitalized a member of a U.S. political party formed in 1891 primarily to represent agrarian interests and to advocate the free coinage of silver and government control of monopolies
2a believer in the rights, wisdom, or virtues of the common people

Well, is representing the views of the common people bad?

Certainly not, the problem however is fleshed out in the BBC article and a bit in the history of the U.S. Populist Party.

Populism, at its core, has the concept that "the people" are vested with a certain degree of common wisdom and are best suited to define a nation's politics and, to some extent, to define the nation itself.  Contrary to what some would generally claim, populism always exists in every democracy and it is not a bad thing in and of itself.  Indeed, when a strongly anti populist element openly exist in a nation's political culture, and it has in ours for some time, it's a sign that the politics of the nation is ill [3]. At any rate, populist influence isn't a bad thing in a country's politics and if it doesn't exist, that's a real problem itself.

The root of the populist problem, when it arises, has to due with the human capacity, and inevitability, to organize.  Being made up of "the people" (although it never actually represents the full "people"), in order to get voice populism has to form its own party or be incorporated into an existing one. Both have occurred in the U.S. at different times.  Of note, populist political parties only tend to arise in times of real significant stress aimed at the demographic that forms them.

Indeed, generally the opposite in the case.  Existing parties incorporate populist ideas to greater or lesser degrees.  While the founders gave voice to a desire that no political parties, which they termed "factions" should arise in the US, that thought was naïve and of course they did, and rapidly. The first two such factions were the Federalist and the Anti Federalist, with the Anti Federalist, the predecessors of the Democratic Party (bearing next to no resemblance, however, to the current Democratic Party) incorporating ideas that we'd recognize as populist.

Thomas Jefferson, Agrarian and somewhat proto populist, he defines some of the irony of populist leaders.  Champion of the common farmer, he was a large planter, critic of slavery, he held slaves and indeed held a mistress or common law wife, or whatever she was, in bondage, along with their children.

That example, however, is telling.  The Anti Federalist as a group were lead by Thomas Jefferson, and hence are also called the "Jeffersonian Republicans" or the Democratic-Republicans.  Thomas Jefferson was an agrarian philosopher and virtually worshiped the common yeoman farmer, but he was far from that himself. The same man who thought that a democracy could only exist as long as most of its citizens were yeomanry, was a slaving holding planter and lawyer.  I.e., he was part of the Virginia elite.  Indeed, almost all of the founders of the republic, while holding strong democratic ideals, were members of the elite.

What that demonstrates is that normally populist ideas are incorporated into parties, to greater or lesser degrees, but the parties themselves are normally headed by people who really don't fit the description of "common man" for the most part.

Harry S. Truman, who really was a common man. . . and not a populist by any means.

Having said that, that works well enough most of the time. Particularly in the United States, the leaders of political parties are closer to being common men than we might imagine, even if they are not.  They aren't, and it isn't as if we've ever elected a President off the floor of a General Motors plant, but as noted, they're closure than we might suppose. Some, like Lyndon Johnson or Harry Truman, have in fact been quite close and Truman was arguably truly a common man, although he wasn't a populist at all.

As noted, the problem arises in times of stress.  But more than that, it arises in times of stress when the voice of the common man has been ignored.  In the case of the U.S., that's pretty much been since the early 1970s.  

Prior to the 1970s the U.S was living off of the fact that the US emerged from World War Two with the only intact industrial economy.  Germany, the main European industrial power, had its economy destroyed by four years of bombing followed by major armies fighting in the streets, followed by being split in half.  The United Kingdom had endured a solid year of destructive bombing, a major campaign against its merchant fleet, the complete conversion of its economy to war materials, and the loss of an economic system based on raw materials being imported from its extensive empire.  The only industrial power in Asia was Japan and its primitive industry had been completely destroyed by U.S. bombing. We were it.

That meant that blue collar jobs, and jobs simply not requiring more than a high school degree. . . or not even requiring a high school degree, were well paying and made for good careers.

Factory workers in New York going home, 1940s.

But more than that, the American economy of the 1950s and 1960s was based upon a social structure that predated the and wasn't that impacted by it due to the war.  Women in the workforce had been increasing since the 1890s, contrary to common presumption, but the type of work had started off with the most menial and then improved.  None the less, in the 50s and 60s married women were generally not expected to have to work, and most women married.

The social upheaval of the 1960s was a gut punch to the class we're speaking of.  Not only did it take a hit, but it was lampooned in the US.  It wasn't uniquely attacked here, however, and arguably it took its first solid hits in the United Kingdom, where the post war world was a massive disappointment.  At the same time a massive boom in university education altered economic expectations which, for a time, could actually be realized.  Adding to this, Hugh Hefner had launched an assault on conventional values starting in 1953 which were actualized in new ways with the introduction of pharmaceutical birth control in the early 1960s.  The "working" demographic was beginning to feel forgotten and betrayed by the late 1960s.

A message from 1953. . . from 1943.

In the early 1970s the nation endured the period of inflation that was devastating to the economy while at the same time the economy began to convert full scale into one that required women to work and, just to get by, required husband and wife to work.  A reform in immigration laws wiped out an old system that favored European immigrants, who had a close cultural connection with the American blue collar demographic and which more or less opened the floodgates to massively increased immigration.  At the same time the US stood by while much of its lower level industry went overseas, something that was seen as a good thing by American political elites who thought that this simply cleared the way to an ongoing industrial evolution in which the US would basically entirely convert to white collar work, irrespective of whether people wanted that sort of work or not.

And hence the stress.  People who had for generations worked in factories or farms were marginalized and told to get used to it. At the same time, families that had strong social cohesion in this class found that they increasingly couldn't recognize their former country as it changed. Entire families in which divorce had never existed found that their children were in rebellion against conventional norms, and sooner or later some of them were having children with no father in the picture, something that became a burden on the generation that was still together.

In reaction to this, the same class wanted a return to the former condition, by which it did mean a return to the past.  It was too late to do that, but not only was their no attempt, it was simply ignored.  One ignored generation turned into two, then three.

Now here, in noting all of this, we also are slipping into the next problem.  Who is that common man anyway?  

In the case of the US its the demographic, as already noted, that worked in factories and fields since the onset of the nation, sort of.  Americans in that class had originally been mostly white and mostly descended from immigrants from Great Britain, but that changed a good deal over time.  And, revealing a distinct problem with populism, it excluded certain "others".

Regarding  themselves as the founders of the country, and not without justification for that view, they viewed others outside of the group as not really part of the story to the same degree.  African Americans certainly weren't included in this group, even though in terms of labor they fully shared the story.  Native Americans were rather obviously outside of it.  Originally, in the countries early history, Catholics and Jews were also outside of it.[4].  As time went on, this remained the same in some locations and changed in others, but it tends to remain a Protestant white Euro American point of view even though not all who espouse it are religious, Christian or white.  While I've not seen a poll of it, however, chances are that the overwhelming majority of current populist are nominally Protestant whites.

Which brings us to the next problem.  Populism, in times of stress evolves towards a strong them vs. us type of view, and from there go into a tribal "real people" v "the others" type of mentality if their leadership allows them to.  That's what's happened in the U.S.

As noted, most of the time, populist are part of the group.  But if sufficient stress is applied populist tend to feature the same evolution as other strongly demographic political parties or movements do, which is evolution towards a worshipped central leadership.  Indeed, stressed populism strongly resembles fascism and communism that way, both of which have strongly populist elements, although that's rarely admitted.

Logo of Hungary's ruling party which has strongly populist concepts.

In that them vs. us type of atmosphere, the concept of "real" develops in a frightening fashion.  Populists tend to define themselves as the real citizens of a nation.  Others are regarded as fakes.  As noted, this tend to lean into fascism, and we can see that right now in Hungary where the leadership of the country strongly identifies itself with the traditional cultural values of the majority of the nation.  And we can see that in the United States as well.  

In 2016 populist in the United States leaned at first in heavily Democratic direction finding hope in the message of Bernie Sanders.  Donald Trump's political genius was in co-opting that demographic, which largely went over to him, in no small part due the Democrats nominating Hilary Clinton, an outward and obvious member of the political elite.

As noted above, a strong element of populism is the assumption that elites are out to get them.  This belief isn't without reason, as the exportation of American industry overseas in the 1970s and 1980s demonstrates. The ongoing and continual ignoring of the American immigration problem since that time provides another obvious example, as Republicans and Democrats conspired to keep immigration rates high for their own purposes.  But by and large this story is mixed at best, even where it does occur.

A sense of betrayal by elites is natural, however, when the leaders in a society are very clearly not part of the overall norm.  No President since Ronald Reagan could really pretend to be a member of the average American demographic and he was likely the last one whom people thought of that way. The Bush family certainly didn't have that atmosphere. Even Barack Obama, who started off in rather poor circumstances, didn't attempt that.

Donald Trump did.

Trump didn't pretend to be a common man, but he promised to do what the common man wanted.  Trump is a salesman, and as a salesman he mostly sold himself.  He did a good job of selling himself to a dispossessed demographic.

Trump was once a Democrat and there's no real way to know what he thinks on anything.  He may believe what he says or not, or both. But what Trump is more about than anything else is Trump.  He's sold his image to the populist and the identify themselves with him.

If Trump was just a gadfly politician, like populist Huey Long, that would present a problem. But Trump is more than that.  He's egotistical to a malevolent level and he can't stand the thought of loss.  It isn't that he's a populist, if he is.  It's that Trump is anti democratic, and he's converted the populist to being anti democrats as well, based on the extreme concept that everyone who opposes them isn't a real American.

Well haven't the Republicans always been populists anyway, and there's never been a problem before?

No, not even close.

Since the 1912 Presidential Election, the GOP has been the conservative party.  It wasn't always that, indeed it was a liberal party originally.  But it's been definitively conservative, if not always the same kind of conservative, since 1912. [5]. In some ways, the party was heading towards a combination of liberalism, or as it was then called "progressivism" and populism at that time. [6]. The 1912 debacle ended that and its been conservative ever since.

Not surprisingly, like everything else in this area, a debate can be had on what "conservative" means.  The Oxford dictionary defines it as follows:

con·ser·va·tism
/kənˈsərvədizəm/

noun
  1. 1.
    commitment to traditional values and ideas with opposition to change or innovation.
    "proponents of theological conservatism"
  2. 2.
    the holding of political views that favor free enterprise, private ownership, and socially traditional ideas.
    "a party that espoused conservatism"

I think number two is probably largely correct, but an added element of it is that underlying political conservatism is a general "outward" nature which contrast it with modern progressivism.  I.e., political conservatives are generally skeptical that we know that much about anything in concrete terms, believe that human nature doesn't change, and that larger things are really metaphysical in nature and not subject to our whims.  For that reason, conservatives are cautious about disrupting anything traditional as the feeling is that it is probably based on something solid and what it is replaced with has no guaranty of being better.  Additionally, conservatives are much more likely to believe that the universe is governed by laws set by something other than us, and we ought to pay attention and attempt to comport to them.

Conservatives and populist definitely overlap on some things and for that reason, it's easy to confuse the two. For example, most conservatives value tradition, and populist definitely do.  Conservatives value religion, and populist claim to.  But even in these things there's distinct differences.

Populist tend to value tradition as they view it as nearly endowed with the force or religion, which is interesting as they are often likely, in the American case, to be more in the nature of nominal Christians than than practicing ones.  Indeed, conservatives are often highly likely to be practicing members of their faiths but to also hold that elements of their faiths have no directly political application to everything.  This is not to say that they don't apply their religious views to their politics, as that would be untrue.

To given as example of this, I've heard in recent years some people speak of the founding documents of the American republic in religious terms, taking the strongly implied view that God has ordained a certain view of the nation and its founding documents.  Nearly no conservative holds that view.

This therefore gives similar, but not identical, views of the nation's history and culture. Both conservatives and populist are likely to view the nation's history in a traditional, and patriotic, sense, but conservatives are not beyond questioning and qualifying elements of it.  Populists, on the other hand, are enormously resistant to any change in popular history and tend to regard that as an attack upon the nation.  Again, giving an example, conservatives questioned the 1619 project as politically motivated, but didn't get too excited about that and have always held the view that the nation isn't prefect, as nothing is.  Populist have been horrified by the 1619 project and sponsored their own, through the Trump Administration, counter argument in the 1776 Project which had its own political arguments.

Re culture, mentioned above, most conservatives tend to regard the country has having a "Judeo  Christian" culture, which they take quite seriously.  "Judeo Christian" itself reflects, to a degree, the evolution in their thought however as it encompasses all of the Christian religions and the Jewish faith, a pretty broad definition.  Populist, however, tend to take the view that the nation is a Christian nation, by which they mean a Protestant American type of Christianity.  Deep conservatives tend to take religious doctrine extremely seriously, and as a general rule, they're most members of a faith they take seriously and adhere to, although there are exceptions.  Populists, interestingly enough, tend to espouse a religious believe but are often very unobservant, and sometimes regard religious tenants much the same way they do political ones, i.e., as subject to the will of the people.[7].

Overall, conservatives tend to hold the view that we're pretty flawed and not going to get everything anywhere near close to correct, so we ought to be very careful about trying to.  Populist tend to believe that if the nation took root in the traditions of the country, as they imagine them, things would be darned near prefect.  Indeed, in that sense, they share a common trait with progressives, who believe that the world can be made darned near perfect and its all up to us.  As noted, the current populist waive started in the Democratic Party, not the Republican one.

And all that is why this is a big problem.

Conservatives in the GOP have always strongly believed in democracy, as they would. That's the nation's tradition, and they're not about to disrupt it.  Populist in the current era, however, believe that they're facing an overarching threat from an "other".  

When Donald Trump warned that the "they" were going to "take your country", conservatives and populists heard two different things. To conservatives, the warnings about assaults on traditional culture, which definitely have been going on, stand to thrust the nation into the whacky unknown, and therefore they need to be politically opposed.  To populist, that's a battle cry that "the other", the enemy, is assaulting the real country, as they define it, and needs to be opposed by any and every means.

And that would include challenging the legitimacy of an election, as populist would view any effort against them, in the end, as illegitimate in this current atmosphere.  As populist tend to only organize under extreme stress, and as Trump tapped into that and caused himself to be identified with the populist, he's achieved identification with their concerns on a personalized and individualized basis.  That's dangerous in and of itself, but when its combined with a personality whose principal point his himself, it's particularly dangers and undemocratic.

Yikes!  So why aren't all the Republicans behind Cheney?

Cartoon showing the populist William Jennings Bryan as a snake swallowing the Democratic Party. The same image could be used today with Trump as the snake and the GOP elephant being swallowed.

Well, there's a lot of reason for that.

To start with, probably more of the Republican's in Congress are behind Cheney, without saying anything, than we know, but more of them are in the Senate than the House.  Mitch McConnell basically stated that Trump should be tried for sedition.

The House changes over a great deal more, and much more quickly, than the Senate does, which partially explains the disparity there.  By this, what we mean is that there are Congressmen who came up in the Trump era and rode his coattails.  Some of them are genuine Trumpites, and others don't dare upset voters who are in the Trump camp.  

And a lot of Republicans just flatly don't' see the danger, or disagree that it is there, and are more worried about retaining the populist voters. This is subject to a double miscalculation, but it's still there.  

People thinking that way have only their own experience to go on, and that of the Republican Party. The GOP has not experienced a populist influx since 1900-1914 and its outside of its institutional memory. For a lot of those people, an American political party can't act against democracy as it just hasn't happened to them or their party before.  Indeed, the last American political party to have a strong, and anti democratic, populist wing was the Democratic Party.  The Democrats had a strongly racist, and hence anti democratic, wing that lasted into the early 1980s.  The Democrats handled that by effectively marginalizing it at the national level, but it also yielded to it in the South.  It did fail to do so, however, in 1860, and that of course lead to the Civil War.  Anyhow, in spite of the example just provided to us, those Republicans just can't believe that Trump will strike out against democracy again.

And some, probably fairly cynically, are wagering that old age will catch up with Trump prior to 2024.  I'd guess them right, but there's no way to know.

That's likely what people like Mitch McConnell are wagering.  Time marches on and the ravages of that march are more telling on a person the older they get.  Four years in your twenties goes by slowly and you're likely to be in just as good of shape at the end of the four as the beginning. Four years in old age goes by like a flash and you stand a good chance of being worse off in the end than the beginning.  Trump gives no signs of taking care of himself and his age and condition could catch up with him at any point.  People like McConnell are gambling that it will, and the problem will simply pass, leaving the Trump voters, but not Trump.

The problem with that is, of course, several fold.  It leaves you saying nothing, with silence being consent in 2022. But Trump isn't going to be silent. And he may in fact still be around in 2024 and run for office, in which case he'll be the nominee as it'll be a bit too late to contest him.

It also assumes that rank and file Republicans will be around as well.

And that's a big miscalculation.

The GOP is so focused on Trump voters staying in the party that it doesn't seem to notice that traditional Republicans, including conservatives, are leaving. The Republicans feel that Trump brought them big net gains, but the evidence is against it.  Trump lost the popular vote for the oval office twice, which isn't a measure of success, and the Republicans lost both the House and the Senate under his watch.  That would seem to be an indication of failure, not success.  

And the January insurrection is driving people out of the GOP. Even at the local level, where supposedly the state is all behind Trump, there's been one newly elected Republican who has claimed that that the party is now dead.

Indeed, by 2024 the GOP may be so populist that it simply becomes a populist party, which will doom it to irrelevance and cause it to disappear.  Conservatives are already discussing openly bolting the party now.

Indeed Republicans with an eye towards history may wish to recall that the Democrats lost their populist wing when Reagan openly courted it, as that branch was isolated to the South.  That loss turned out to be a gain as the Democrats were freed of a racist wing and history.  Its regaining strength in the South, but not with the baggage it once had.  The GOP has the opportunity to accelerate that process right now, if only it'll avail itself of the opportunity.  

But it shows no signs of doing that.

And ironically, populist have proven to be a particularly fickle demographic.  Populist attempted to form their own party but it only existed from 1892 to 1909, with its voters going over to both parties.  The Republican Party flirted with populism in the 1900 to 1912 time frame only to abandon it, with its populists going to the Democrats or into more radical movements.  Southern Democratic populists stuck with the Democratic Party for a long time, having really nowhere else to go, but turned against it three times after World War Two, attempting to form two new short lived parties before simply abandoning the party entirely for the GOP with Ronald Reagan.  This all makes sense in that the base of any populist movement is made up of regular people who, after all, are busy trying to just get by.

And as a core element of populism under stress is a sense of betrayal, the GOP runs the risk that Trump may prove the ultimate betrayer.  The current Democratic Administration is giving populism plenty of fuel as much of what it is espousing is outright contrary to populist sentiments. By the same token, of course, this is true of conservatism as well.  But if Trump ends up being exposed in a critical way, the famously volatile nature of American fame could change overnight.

Indeed, even in politics, the lessons of this are pretty clear.  It's often noted that the Vietnam War was fought by common Americans, and this is very true for those who entered the service prior to the last Vietnam War era draft.  It's also noted that the same demographic went into the war believing that the US simply couldn't be on the wrong side of a war.  When the war became questionable, many felt irreversibly betrayed.  By the same token, if its shown that Trump lied in some significant way, and there's plenty of investigatory efforts regarding Trump right now, the same demographic may change its views on him and the GOP overnight.

If the GOP doesn't confront a Trump focused populism, it may, at the most, retain the Trump voters, and will retain Trump, but that may be it.  In 2024, if Trump remains capable of running, Trump will claim the election was stolen but the margins are likely to be  high for a Harris campaign that leaves no real doubt. The regular Republicans will have left the party and either have formed a new one or be in search of a new place to form a conservative opposition party. The populists will have dwindled too, having lost interest over time for the most part, if times are good, or having grown upset with defeat, if times are bad.

Footnotes

1.  I can't recall what it was exactly, although it claimed Cheney was a "swamp rat".  My guess is that the same person was a big Cheney backer this time a year ago.

I do recall the other sticker, which was an outline of a lemon and the words "all juice, no seeds", meaning that the vehicle occupant was advertising both his vasectomy and promiscuity.  The extent to which this society has really descended to the depths is pretty well summarized in some ways by that.

2.  Okay, I want to squelch right here that "we're not a democracy, we're a republic" line that people routinely spout out on this topic seemingly not knowing that this is about the most ill informed thing on this topic you can say. Yes, we're a democracy.  We're also a republic. You can be both.  Shoot, you can be a democracy and a monarchy for that matter.

If you have been spouting this, stop immediately, go back to 6th grade, and repeat civics.

Yes, we're not a direct democracy.  No country on earth is.  And we're not a parliamentary democracy.  So freaking what?  That doesn't mean we're not a democracy.  If the people vote in free and fair elections for their government, it's democracy.  If they vote for a representative in parliament, it's a parliamentary democracy.  If they vote in a system that incorporates regional representation, it's a federal democracy.

Saying we're "a republic, not a democracy", makes just about as much sense as telling somebody "we're riding in a sedan, not a car".  

No, it's a car.

3.  The antithesis of populism is elitism, which isn't a good things.  The Democratic Party for some time has had strongly elitist elements, which is part of the problem we're now facing.  Populism, in its worst phases, becomes a them v us type of movement. The Democrats, for their part, are creating a real "them".  It feeds into itself.

4.  As late as World War Two the government issued a post reminding Americans that Catholics and Jews were real Americans.

5.  Of some interest, the last time the People's Party, an American populist political party, ran a Presidential candidate was 1908.

6.  Progressivism in 1912 isn't really the same thing it is today, although its related.

7.  Which gets back to the sticker noted above.  Conservatives wouldn't advertise promiscuity on a sticker, as they wouldn't approve of it.  Apostolic Christians, moreover, wouldn't advertise surgical birth control, and beyond that as many conservatives have a high regard for natural systems, even those without a religious orientation would be disinclined to go in this direction.

Lots of street level populists however don't see this conflict at all, and while they bemoan the decline of society, plenty are willing to participate on in it.  The liberalization, or some would say libertineization of sex in the U.S. is a "liberal" or progressive matter, and therefore even some of the same group of people, in this instance, who would be bothered by progressive advocates for LGBTQ causes, if they are populists and not conservatives, have no basic problem with non traditional sexual behavior on their own part and don't see that as contrary to a Christian faith that they loosely espouse.