Friday, December 11, 2020

Pandemic, Part 4


 SARS-CoV-2, (2019-nCoV, COVID-19).  The spikes on the outer edge of the virus particles give coronaviruses, a family of such viruses, their name, using the latin name for "crown", corona. "Crown virus". Credit: NIAID-RML

October 31, 2020

This isn't going to be a cheery entry, not that any of the entries so far have been.

It's now clear that the disease is mutating.  European scientists have isolated a second strain that's ripping through Europe that originated during the first Spanish episode.  Viruses mutating is a common evolutionary strategy they employ for survival, but oddly at least the Spanish mutation is every bit as lethal as its predecessor.  Usually viruses, such as the 1918 Spanish Flu (poor Spain, to be associated with such disasters), grow less lethal as they evolve. So far, in at least this example, it isn't.

This may explain, but only in part, why its now clear that being infected at least twice is perfectly possible, and now appears common. Wyoming has had its first such instance with a UW student who has had it twice.  The other reason that this may be the case is it is clear that immunity from being infected lasts a mere eight weeks.  It's not permanent.

Added to that. . . no vaccine yet.  And obviously coming up with one, given that the disease has evolved, is going to be difficult.

Keeping it isolated in the first place in free societies, quite frankly, was never going to be possible.  That's why it ripped through Europe and is now doing so a second time. And that's why its ripping through the US.  It's also why its now ripping through South America and India.

But that also means that the opportunity, in my view, to have contained it effectively, and then put a lid on it, is lost.

That's a grim assessment, but at this time, my prediction is that it will last not only through the winter and into next year.  It's become endemic in society and will be something we'll have to go on to accept as a horrific lethal actor in society, like small pox once was.  Our best hope is that a vaccine that's effective on whatever the local predominant variant is developed over the next few months and at least 60% of the population gets it.  That might knock it back to the level of where its capable of being handled.

In other grim news the disease has hit a Casper nursing home and at this point, at least locally, you know somebody who has it.  It's spiking in Wyoming with the new infection rate growing daily.

November 2, 2020

People arriving in New York state must quarantine for three days before taking an infection test.

The United Kingdom is going back into lockdowns and shutting down much of the public market, if you will, economy.

Laramie County's mask requirement comes into effect today, although their District Attorney is indicating that she will take no steps to enforce it.

November 3, 2020

A crowd shouted down public health officials in Natrona County attempting to explain the state of the virus.  This is really inexcusable and inexplicable.  Part of the time the taunters chanted "USA, USA", which makes no sense in this context whatsoever.

Donald Trump hinted he may fire Dr. Anthony Fauci after the election.

November 4, 2020

Albany County, Wyoming has imposed a mask requirement to go into effect this Friday.

November 9, 2020

The State of Utah has issued a mask mandate.

The University of Wyoming will not be playing its scheduled football game against the Air Force Academy.

The Wind River Indian Reservation is closing its casinos for the second time.

Cont:

From the New York Times:

Pfizer’s Early Data Shows Coronavirus Vaccine Is More Than 90% Effective


This is moving really rapidly.  Vaccinations  could start by the end of the year.

November 10, 2020

New Jersey has re-imposed restrictions on indoor dining.

November 12, 2020

The University of Wyoming and Central Wyoming College are bringing in already scheduled all on line classes for the campus early.  The campuses will go all on line on Monday.

Sublette County is seeking to impose a mask requirement.  If imposed, which is likely, it will be the fifth Wyoming county to have one in effect.

Governor Gordon's office issued this release yesterday:

Governor to Bring Additional Medical Personnel to Wyoming for COVID Response

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Wyoming hospitals are seeing a drastic spike in COVID-19 cases and report that the main concern at this time is having adequate staffing. In response, Governor Mark Gordon is utilizing $10 million in CARES Act funds to bring additional medical personnel to the state to alleviate the strain on hospitals and Wyoming health care professionals. 

The Wyoming Department of Health (WDH) has partnered with the Wyoming Hospital Association to bring in temporary medical personnel to address the surge in hospitalizations that has occurred around the state, and to prepare for additional staffing needs that are likely to arise. As of November 10, Wyoming hospitals were reporting a record 178 COVID-19 current hospitalizations. One month ago there were only 56. 

“We are grateful to the Governor for recognizing the imminent need for additional staffing around the state,” said Eric Boley, President of the Wyoming Hospital Association. “Medical staff across the state are strained and exhausted. There is an immediate need to bring in additional help to ease the burden shouldered by our healthcare professionals. This move by the Governor is important and is giving us critical resources allowing us to find and retain medical personnel to support our hospitals in their fight against COVID.”

“This funding will help ease the strain on our hospitals and healthcare workers, who have been working tirelessly to provide care to increasing numbers of COVID-19 patients,” Governor Gordon said. “As hospitals around the region face the same issues, our hospitals cannot plan on transferring patients out of state. I want to ensure Wyoming maintains its ability to provide our residents access to the treatments and care they need.”

The Wyoming Hospital Association will work with the state’s hospitals to evaluate medical staff shortages and consult with the WDH on each facilities’ needs. The temporary medical personnel will allow hospitals to treat additional patients, offset staff shortages that may occur due to illness and provide relief to hospital staff dealing with heavy workloads and long stretches of overtime.

--END--


November 13, 2020

Twenty-one county health officers have urged Governor Gordon to institute a statewide mask order.  Wyoming has twenty-three counties.  Presently only a few of those counties have imposed mask orders themselves, including Albany, Laramie and Teton Counties.

The Governor is holding a public conference on COVID 19 later today. His address has been twice delayed this week.

Costco tightened its mass requirement in the US enacting a policy requiring everyone to wear one and, if people have medical exemptions, to wear a face shield.

87 year old Don Young of Alaska, the oldest member of Congress, has contracted COVID 19.

The COVID 19 death toll has surpassed 10,000 deaths in Massachusetts.  California has surpassed 1,000,000 infections.

The Mayor of Chicago has urged that Chicagoans stay home except for essential travel.

Jet Blue and Southwest Airlines are ending blocked seat policies and returning to selling the entire cabin.

The Ivy League has called of winter sports.

November 14, 2020

In a heartfelt address, Governor Gordon indicated that all options are on the table even as he tables whether or not to use any for the next couple of weeks to see how things progress and whether people act independently to address the current peak infection rate in the state.


The Wyoming Supreme Court vacated all jury trials.

Oregon's governor ordered that state into a strict two week lockdown.

Puerto Rico activated its National Guard to enforce curfews, which shall be partially tasked for enforcement to the unarmed soldiers.

A court in Texas rules that El Paso County's stay at home order was invalid as that authority was vested solely in the Governor's office.

November 15, 2020

The Tribune this morning has banner headlines with "the Numbers", and a set of graphs.  A visually and informationally impressive front page.

Austria is going into a national lockdown.

November 16, 2020

New research has shown that COVID 19 was circulating in Italy, but with low lethality, in September 2019, before the disease was thought to have existed.  This means, according to researchers, that the disease is capable of circulating without high lethality which, ironically, also means it will be very difficult to eradicate.

The Navajo Nation has gone into lockdown.

The number of Americans who have been infected surpassed 11,000,000.  Mexico surpassed 1,000,000.

November 17, 2020

The President of Wyoming's Senate has contracted the disease and is recovering.

The Wyoming State Republican Central Committee passed a resolution asking Governor Gordon to rescind the state of emergency he declared in March.

November 18, 2020

Mask orders will go into effect in nearly every Wyoming county.  At least one county where they have not yet been approved has an order submitted to the State awaiting approval.

Natrona County's was interesting in that the County Health officer submitted an order for approval without providing it to the County Commission which therefore was unaware of its exact terms at the time it was approved, although almost all of them have mirrored the order in place for Teton County, which was the first county to have one independently in place.

Some types of mouthwash have been demonstrated as being effective in killing the virus in the mouth.

November 20, 2020

Governor Gordon announced yesterday that on November 24 restrictions on the number of individuals in gatherings shall be instated.


Travel during the COVID-19 Pandemic

Updated Oct. 21, 2020

Travel increases your chance of getting and spreading COVID-19. Staying home is the best way to protect yourself and others from COVID-19.

You can get COVID-19 during your travels. You may feel well and not have any symptoms, but you can still spread COVID-19 to others. You and your travel companions (including children) may spread COVID-19 to other people including your family, friends, and community for 14 days after you were exposed to the virus.

Don’t travel if you are sick or if you have been around someone with COVID-19 in the past 14 days. Don’t travel with someone who is sick.

The head of the Serbian Orthodox Church, Patriarch Irinej, has died of COVID 19 at age 90.  The Patriarch recently preceded over a funeral of a clergyman and came down with the disease shortly thereafter.

November 22, 2020

The Texas National Guard has been deployed to El Paso to assist with a morgue crisis in that city.

November 23, 2020

South Korea tightened restrictions on Seoul.

Protesters in Germany compared German restrictions to Nazi era rule.

France ordered 1,000 minks infected with COVID 19 culled.

Chile reopened its borders.

November 24, 2020

According to Colorado Public Radio, 1 in 49 Coloradans are now infected with Covid 19, or a little over 2%.

The same report notes that Denver International Airport is packed.

Cont:

The Governor's office is now closed due to a staff member coming down with COVID 19.  It is set to reopen tomorrow.

November 25, 2020

The Wyoming legislature determined its members won't have to comply with local mask orders when they are sworn in.

Cont:

Governor Gordon has tested positive for the virus.

November 30, 2020

Senate Republicans are suspending their in person lunches. The Democrats did this earlier.

Santa Clara County, California, has suspended team sports. The county includes the NFL's San Francisco 49ers.

December 1, 2020

News remains good on the vaccination front, with some indications that the commencement of vaccinations is only weeks away.

December 2, 2020

The UK has approved the Pfizer vaccine.

Canada has announced that its border control policies with the US will remain in place until the end of the pandemic.

Hong Kong has limited gatherings to two people.

December 4, 2020

The First Lady of Wyoming, Jennie Gordon, now has COVID 19.

Dr. Igor Shepherd of the Wyoming Department of Health spoke at an even in Colorado last month in which he claimed that Russia and China invented the virus in order to spread communism around the world and that the vaccine is a biological weapon.

President Elect Biden will ask Americans to wear a mask for the first 100 days of his presidency.

The number of Americans who have had COVID 19 has surpassed 14,000,000 people.

Cardiac arrests due to drug overdoses are also surging in the United States as the pandemic has caused an uptick in drug and alcohol use.

December 5, 2020

The Natrona County mask mandate was continued to January 8, 2021.

December 7, 2020

Increase in Deaths and Challenges to Hospital Capacity lead to New Actions to Fight Virus

Governor pushes effort so businesses stay open and local authority respected

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – With Wyoming hospitals seeing record numbers of hospitalized COVID-19 patients and rising deaths, Governor Mark Gordon has announced a new approach that protects the public and keeps schools and businesses open. This involves requiring face coverings in certain indoor public settings in all counties, reducing group sizes, and reducing hours of businesses where COVID-19 transmission is more likely to occur. However, counties can opt out of the requirements if local conditions move to safer levels in accordance with White House metrics.

“Our state and those surrounding us are facing a hospital capacity crisis that now compels us to take additional action. All through the fall, Wyoming has seen a rise in serious cases of COVID to a point where every county is facing critical and dangerous levels of spread of the virus. Too many people have died,” Governor Gordon said. “Science tells us limiting gatherings of groups and using face coverings are effective in slowing transmission of this virus. With these actions we can avoid taking the more drastic step of closing schools and businesses.”

The new health orders signed by State Health Officer Dr. Alexia Harrist take effect Wednesday, December 9 and extend through January 8, 2021. Sixteen Wyoming counties already have county-level orders requiring face coverings. Little will change in those counties, as local officials continue to have authority to administer the face covering requirement in their community.

“I want to thank the majority of Wyoming counties who have taken the lead, and the people who are working hard to protect their friends, neighbors, and colleagues by wearing face coverings. They will make a big difference but it will take time. We stand behind the local actions that are in place. These new orders are meant to support local leadership and we should all know that in Wyoming these mandates are not about citations, but about caring for others,” Governor Gordon said.

The Governor's previous steps to address the rising number of hospitalizations included reducing the size of allowed gatherings, accepting federal assistance from the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, and providing additional financial and staffing support to hospitals in the state. With federal CARES Act funding scheduled to expire at the end of the month, the Governor said the use of face coverings is a cost-effective tool that can help reduce hospitalizations and keep businesses and schools open until a COVID-19 vaccine is widely available. Wyoming reported 128 COVID-19 deaths in November, the highest number since the pandemic began in March.

“We have said from the beginning that we will follow the science. We are at a critical juncture for our state,” the Governor said. “These next few months are going to be challenging for our businesses, citizens, families, and our healthcare workers. This is a necessary step to ensure a happy and healthy holiday season and a safer and Merry Christmas, and set ourselves in good stead for the new year. The deployment of the vaccine in the coming months will help put this awful virus finally at bay and bring us back to some semblance of normal.”

The decision to extend the face covering requirement statewide was endorsed by the Wyoming Medical Society, the Wyoming Primary Care Association and the Wyoming Hospital Association.

“Wyoming’s physicians and PAs are deeply grateful that the Governor has taken this critical action in leading our state to the other side of the pandemic,” said Sheila Bush, Executive Director of the Wyoming Medical Society. “Everyone wearing a mask is the simplest and most effective way to reduce the state’s rate of transmission, enabling us to safely keep schools and businesses open until we reach the other side.”

“We realize that masks are not the cure for COVID, but we know they can be effective in slowing the spread of the virus,” said Eric Boley, CEO of the Wyoming Hospital Association. “Hospitals are reaching capacity and nursing homes are seeing increases in infection rates. Medical staff are exhausted and are wearing thin as they battle this disease. We need to slow the spread and flatten the curve until the vaccine is readily available. It is all worth it if one life is saved by wearing masks. Thank you Governor for your leadership on this issue.”

A fact sheet is attached providing details on the new orders, along with the orders themselves, and these can also be found on Wyoming’s COVID-19 website.

“Rest assured that we are doing everything in our power to mitigate the economic damage and social costs to the state,” the Governor continued, “But how we emerge on the other side is in large part up to us.”

--END--

December 8, 2020

Denver has closed its bars and restaurants.

The new Wyoming orders are summarized in this letter issued by the state:


December 10, 2020

Dr. Igor Shephard quit his post with the Wyoming Department of Health.  You can read about his statements above.

December 11, 2020

The Gates Foundation pledged $250,000,000 to fight COVID 19 worldwide.

___________________________________________________________________________________

Related and prior threads:

There are over fifty threads mentioning the disease, so only the prior version of this trailing post are noted here.


Thursday, December 10, 2020

Blog Mirror: US plugs and sockets origin and early models

 Ever go into an older house and see some odd sockets?

US plugs and sockets
origin and early models

Well, that probably doesn't happen as much as it used to, but it did used to occur.  I just knew that they were older.

Well, here's a site, and one in keeping with the focus of this blog, that explores such topics.  Lots of stuff I never knew.

December 10, 1920. War, Peace, News and Meetings.

On this day in 1920, the British extended martial law to four Irish counties.

On the same day, Woodrow Wilson received the Nobel Peace Prize.


The Inauguration Committee of the Senate met and was photographed.
 

And a newsboy was photographed sitting in an office window.


A group of Osage Indians were photographed in Washington D.C.

As were a group of women at a health conference.

Strange and Strained Observations.

Its interesting, post election, to see the conclusions that people have reached regarding what just occurred.

Indeed, we should take heart at that.  People's prognostication abilities, even those of really bright people, often tend to be incredibly poor.  We all know this and exhibit it when we actually express surprise that a dire prediction, or a cheerful one, of the past actually comes true.  Most flat out don't.

Which doesn't mean that they don't have some contemporary influence, sometimes negative influence, at the time they're given.

A strong feature of this is to rationalize the recent results.  People who lost are convinced that its a milestone in the decline of something, just as people who've won assume its the turning point in something.  Sometimes it is, but rarely so.

So, with that introduction, we'll note a few of the more strained ones we've seen.

Victor David Hanson, the agrarian Southern Californian historian, whose histories I do like, but whose political analysis is frankly suspect, came out with the conclusion that the election has been a hallmark of decline because the "tradition" of "everyone" going to the polls on Election Day has been destroyed.

While he doesn't come right out and say it this creeps up on two arguments, one out in the open and another one that is not, that this past election has had about mail in ballots.

What people want to say, if they're opposed to them, is that they're an invitation for fraud.  This has in fact been the bloody banner that Trump started waiving before the election, but at least in this election that proved to be absolutely false.  

The other thing, which people don't argue openly, is a long held feeling that if you mail out ballots the poor and minorities will vote, and they'll all vote Democratic.

Well, that turns out to be false too.

Indeed, if anything, what this election demonstrated is that encouraging record numbers of voters by whatever means actually favors Republicans.  Going off of old models, the Democrats assumed, and understandably, that they were going to demolish Trump at the polls and take out the GOP with him.

They didn't do that.

Indeed, Republicans did really well at the polls.

And finally VDH's historical analysis is just baloney.  We've been moving towards a longer election season and mail in ballots for decades.  Arguably it started during World War Two when the country actually debated on whether to let soldiers vote or not.  It decided they could. . . by mail.  In the Western U.S. mail in balloting has been common my entire adult life.  In recent elections more and more people have availed themselves of that process.  Only in the East Coast was the "show up and vote" process the norm, and mostly because Eastern states are really slow to adopt innovations of that type.

And even if mailing out ballots does change the tradition, so what?  Does VDH want to go back to locked wooden boxes?  For over half of the country's existence the tradition was that only men voted, and for that matter lots of Native American men weren't regarded as citizens, even as recently as a century ago.

So that's just loss sulking, really.

In the same camp is Conrad Black, but with a different twist.

Black is a Canadian ex pat living in the UK who was convicted of some sort of crime in the US and pardoned by Trump.  He's wealthy and a Trump supporter.  He's also the founder of the Canadian National Post.

Black has issued his opinion that Trump backers should not despair as within six months Americans will be crying for the return of Donald Trump, leading to Trump Revolution Part Three (I'm not sure why its part three, but he feels that it is) in 2024, or even earlier.

Well, my prognostication on Presidential elections hasn't been great recently, so perhaps I should abstain from a prediction here, although I did get the results, but not the margins, right this go around.  

F. Scott Fitzgerald famously observed that there were "no second acts in American lives" and that's largely true.  I don't see Trump coming back, although lots of Republicans are living in hope or fear of just that. 

Indeed, my prediction is that the next six months are not going to be good for Trump who is going to have to worry about Federal prosecutors in some areas who are still circling like sharks in some areas, and others in both the Democratic Party and the GOP who will be out for revenge.  Trump's going to have to endure an immediate assault on his reputation and he won't have the bully pulpit to lecture from.

Indeed, we really don't know what his own personal finances are like and there's been some speculation, which may be completely in error, that part of the reason he continues to fight to hold on to the White House is purely personal.  There's something to hide.  I don't think that will be the case or that this is his motivation, but we can be sure that there are going to be piles of memoirs and releases that start flooding out after January 20 and little of it is going to be complimentary.  If there's really anything to hide, moreover, its coming out.  Again, I don't think a dossier of photographs will be slipped under a door from the Russian Embassy, but I do think that Trump is set to be trashed more than any President, ever.

Additionally the ability of a departing President to really retain a grip on anything is pretty poor. The only ones I can think of are Theodore Roosevelt and Grover Cleveland.  And Roosevelt doesn't provide a really good example as he retained support of less than half of the Republican Party in his attempt at a post office run, which split the party.  When he left office the party was united behind him.  In very short order, it wasn't.  Younger Republicans who have been biding their time to run for the Oval Office are probably not going to wait.

Nor should they.  Surely the current President will be the last Boomer President.  He needs to be.  The grip of the Boomers on American politics has been excessively long and is growing exceedingly long in the tooth.  Indeed, Political lamented this last year in an article entitled:

How the baby boomers broke America

The most likely outcome in 2020 is that voters will yet again ask a baby boomer to fix what the baby boom broke.

The article correctly predicted the results, but this literally can't keep going on this way.

Which brings me back to Trump.  He's in his 70s now and doesn't look fit.  Indeed, he looks like somebody who has been living on stress and adrenaline.  In a little over a month, he's going to get a break, and like a lot of old fighters who get one, witness again Theodore Roosevelt after his last run, my suspicion is that he's going to be in situation of the classic Top Gun line in that his "ego is writing checks his body can't cash".

If that sounds rather dire, I don't mean it to be, but I've seen this too many times and with men a lot less controversial than Trump.  Something about the daily routine and even the daily struggle of hard stressful jobs either kills people young are keeps them going into old age.  Once they get a break, the rest sets in a rapid decline, and it does that to men who are in a lot better shape than Donald Trump.  Indeed, those who retire best are those that had other interests to go to.  There's no evidence that Trump does.

Not that I'm really terribly optimistic about Joe Biden and his ability to run again either.  He's a very old man that has worn out a lot of very young men.  My guess is he's going to be a one term President.  I suspect in four years he won't run again and Trump won't be in any shape to do so.  Trump may make a pretense at it, but time will have passed him by.

Another National Post commentator, whose name I've forgotten, who is an American ex pat declared that the election proved the US needed to "modernize" its election system by which she meant make the US system a parliamentary one.

You'd have to be delusional to think the US is going to do that.  We're not going to.

Indeed, ironically, for a columnist who wasn't impressed with Trump, if we did that, Trump would have remained the President.  If the House is our House of Commons, and its controlled by Republicans, and the Commons picks the chief executive, that would be the result.

Moreover, that writer cited Woodrow Wilson favorably noting that he preferred parliaments, which he did, and he was the only President who was an historian. That latter citation isn't really correct unless we mean an academic historian, and even at that its only marginally true.  Wilson was a lawyer by training and went back to school to study history after feeling that courtroom work wasn't his deal.  It probably wasn't.  Theodore Roosevelt, however, was also a published historian.

Wilson was also a racist and pretty ineffectual in the last year of his Presidency so he's not an ideal model for things overall.  Indeed, he was a pretty poor President in general.

Moreover, citing the Canadian example right now only suffices in comparison to the last four years, if you assume that the last four years were embarrassing, which half the country does, another half does not, and which most of the outside world does.  Canada's chief executive is the politically correct pretty boy Justin Trudeau, who most Americans ignore and whom Canadians ought to.

So, anyhow, a slate of interesting opinions.  My predictions are that all of them are going to be wrong.  What the future will hold, only the future will tell, but my guess is that we're going to have a moderately center left government for the next four years, most of the really dramatic stuff that people hope for or fear won't occur, although some of it will, and that in 2024 the contenders aren't going to be Donald Trump or Joe Biden.

Today In Wyoming's History: Wyoming Myths. Jean Baptiste Charbonneau

Today In Wyoming's History: Wyoming Myths. Jean Baptiste Charbonneau

Wyoming Myths. Jean Baptiste Charbonneau

Okay, we recently discussed Sacagawea and, in that context, discussed Jean Baptiste Charbonneau.  Surely we have this covered?

Well, mostly. But to complete the story we really need to address Jean Baptiste as, just like his famous mother, he's the subject of a Wyoming myth. And indeed, it's the same myth.

And its illustrative as to both, as the later life of Jean Baptiste Charbonneau is very well known, and demonstrable with finality.  We know where he went to school, what he did as a young man, a middle aged man, and in the context of his times, as an old man.  

And what he did not do is to go to the Wind River Reservation with his very aged mother.

But that's the myth.

It's hard not to feel sad about the life of Jean Baptiste, even though he probably didn't see it as sad himself.  He wasn't even one year old when he was packed by his mother, as slave to his father, across the western half of North America as his famous mother acted as a guide and interpreter for the Corps of Discovery.  He was a young boy when his mother gave him up to William Clark to be educated, and Clark in fact enrolled him in two successive schools, the first a Jesuit school and the second another private school, at great expense.  He was therefore well educated for this time and became even more so when met Duke Friedrich Paul Wihlem of Wurttenberg in 1823 while he was traveling in the United States.  Jean Baptiste was working at a Kaw trading post on the Kansas River at the time.  The Duke was being guided by Toussaint Charbonneau on a trip to the northern plains.  He invited the younger Charbonneau to return to Europe with him, which he did.  He apparently traveled with the Duke in Europe and Africa while his guest.

Upon returning to North American he resumed a Western life and worked as a trapper, hunter and guide.  He was later a gold prospector.  In 1866 he died in Oregon after some sort of accident which threw him into a frigid river and left him with pneumonia.  He was 61 years old at the time.

He lived a rich and varied life, and a fairly well documented one. That he died in Oregon is something for which there is no doubt.

None the less, Grace Raymond Hebard placed his death in 1885 on the Wind River Reservation, and the work of Dr. Charles Eastman likewise places him there. And this all dates to the the stories associated with Porivo, and her adult son who entered the Reservation with her.  As with his mother, who died in North Dakota, there is a grave marker for him on the Reservation.

His actual grave is known as to location, and is in Oregon.

As with his famous mother, his reconstructed myth does not serve him well, although unlike his mother he lived a fairly long life.  He would have lived a longer one if the Wyoming myth was correct, but that would not do his life justice.  It was remarkably adventuresome right up to the point of his death, and like his mothers it crossed back and forth between two worlds in a way that makes contemporary readers uncomfortable.

Today In Wyoming's History: Today In Wyoming's History: Wyoming Myths. Sacagawea and York

Today In Wyoming's History: Today In Wyoming's History: Wyoming Myths. Sacaga...

Today In Wyoming's History: Wyoming Myths. Sacagawea. An added footnote

Something I really should have footnoted in this item from the other day:
Today In Wyoming's History: Wyoming Myths. Sacagawea: Mural in the Montana State House by Edgar Paxson depicting Sacagawea and the Corps of Discovery in Montana.  Sacagawea's actual appearan...

When the Corps of Discovery went into winter camp after their first year of trekking across the western half of the continent they voted on the location and decided it by majority vote.

Both Sacagawea and York were given a vote.


December 10, 1940. Operation Compass, again.

 Operation Compass again:

Day 467 December 10, 1940

Blog Mirror: My Pandemic Cat Had a Secret

 

First of all, she wasn’t a kitten …




Wednesday, December 9, 2020

December 9, 1940. Points of the Compass

On this day in 1940 Operation Compass commenced in North Africa.  It was the first largescale British operation in North Africa during World War Two.

The British Commonwealth forces attacked Italian forces in Egypt and Cyrenaica in an offense that would run through February and, in the end take over 138,000 Italian and Libyan (Italian Colonial) forces as prisoners.  About 10% of the Commonwealth forces were killed in the effort, a loss of 1,900 men.

The signs were clear.  Italy, in spite of some initial promise for the Axis, was spent, the result of the hardcore fascist Italian forces having been used up in the Spanish Civil War, the Italian defense industry having peaked early, and ultimately lukewarm support of Mussolini in Italy.

And no, this doesn't mean that this has suddenly become the "80 Years Ago Today" day by day website.  That status would be long to the World War II Day-By-Day blog, which suddenly ended without the war completed.  It's entry for this day is here:

Day 466 December 9, 1940

December 9, 1920. People at their occupations.

Frank Ferera and Anthony Franchini making a recording with vocalist The Crescent Trio, December 9, 1920.

On Wednesdays I try to post a "Mid Week At Work" item, but I don't always do it.  Indeed, I miss that feature more often than not.  Yesterday, oddly enough, I looked for a photograph of a professional singer to post for that theme, getting my days of the week messed up for the second week in a row.

Today, I just happened to stumble across the photo posted above, which is 100 years old, today.

Frank Ferera was a professional musician and was Portuguese Hawaiian.  For those who might not know, the Portugese were and are an important demographic in Hawaii.  Ferera came to the mainland in 1915 and remained there as a musician thereafter.  He died at age 66 in 1951.  While Ferera would always remain a guitar player, he quit being a professional musician, at leat for a time, abruptly in 1927, at which time steel guitars were supplanting conventional guitars in Hawaiian music, which was his genra.

Anthony Franchini was an Italian born guitar player who partnered with Ferera and, even though he was an Italian by birth, he too specialized at first in Hawaiian music.  He'd come to the US as a boy with his immigrant family and was self taught.  He was a veteran of World War One, having served as an artilleryman, and having joined the Army prior to becoming a U.S. citizen.

He continued on with a long and prolific music career after Ferera quit.  He served in the Army again as a Drill Instructor, at which time he became a U.S. citizen.  Late in life he moved to Nevada and re arranged The Star Spangled Banner, with Nevada backing his arrangement in several bills in Congress in an attempt to have them officially adopted.  During this period he was active in Republican politics.  He died 1997 at age 99.

Dr. Oliveira de Lima and his wife Flora on this date in 1920.  He was just 53 years old at the time this photograph was taken, which says something about aging in earlier eras.

Dr. Oliveira de Lima, a Brazilian retired diplomat, was photographed on this day in 1920.   This same year he was the donor of a major Hispanic book collection to the Catholic University of America.


Dr. Olieveira would live until 1928.  Flora until 1940. The book collection remains at the Catholic University.

Freshman members of Congress, December 9, 1920.  Heck, with the average age of American politicians being what it is, these guys are probably all still there.

A new Congress was rolling into Washington D. C.  It's notable that at this point in the nation's history, the Presidential inauguration was still in March.  Given this, this wasn't a lame duck Congress, but they had a lame duck President still for months.

At this point in time visiting delegations from the French and British militaries were still quite common in the wake of the Great War, and the French were still giving decorations to American military figures.


U.S. Army General Peter C. Harris receiving decoration from visiting French delegation.

Gen. Peter C. Harris received one such award on this day.  

Harris had entered the U.S. Army in 1888, after graduating from West Point, and first served as an infantry officer.  He'd been at Kettle Hill during the Spanish American War and was, at the time of this photograph, the Adjutant General.  He would live until 1951.

Personal Retroactive Counterfactuals as an historical exercise.

Illustration of Kristin Lavransdatter, a brilliant and highly non romantic exploration of a Medieval Norwegian woman that conveys, as fiction, the life of a common northern European in the Middle Ages much more vividly than a straight history could have done.  I suspect that the author Sigrid Undset put herself in her protagonists shoes many times in writing it. So much so, in fact, that her exploration of Kristin's world impacted her own life to an enormous extent.

We touched on this the other day in regard to World War Two, looking back on 1940, and 1941, from the prospective of 2020 and 2021, and 1980 and 1981.

Okay, what do we mean "retroactive counter factual"?

Well, something that's common enough and which I think all people do. That is imagining yourself in an earlier time.  Certainly, I think, writers do it.  You almost have to in order to write historical fiction, or even history, very well.  

Now, first of all I want to distinguish this from the self delusion of "I wish I lived" type fantasies, which is something else.  I've written a time or two on that as well.  People look at the era they currently live in, with all the strife and problems, and imagine if they'd only lived in some simpler time things would be prefect.  The problem with that is that its a species of self delusion and, oddly enough, most particularly about a person's own era.  I.e., this is the worst of times and there was a better time. . . 

That doesn't mean that there weren't better times, but any time is the times, and every time has problems.  Deluding yourself that "if only I lived 100 years ago" sets aside that 100 years ago was full of problems, as was 200 years ago, 300 years ago, and so on.

Anyhow, I do think that as an historical exercise people looking back has some merits to it and I wonder if history teachers ever assign this as an exercise?  I don't think so, but I wonder if would have merit.

As we noted, when we tend to do this as an exercise we tend to retain the framework of our lives otherwise, which makes it a more useful exercise. We wonder how often this is done.  I suspect that unless that's done, no real lessons are conveyed.

And by that, what we mean, is placing things somewhat in the context of our actual lives.  We noted that the other day in noting that if we were of military age, more or less, in 1940, we'd otherwise assume that we grew up on the same place, graduated from a high school in a year that has an equal place in the decade with others, etc.  In other words, as I looked back the other day I imagined that instead of graduating in 1981 from high school, I graduated in 1941, and from the same high school

From there, you can explore what options would have presented themselves to you. For example, I live in the same town now that I graduated from in 1981.  If I had graduated in 1941, the same high school was there.  My options in life would have been pretty much the same at the time, which is something a person ought to keep in mind in such a mental exercise and which helps accurately explore the topic.  In 1941 the economy here was in the middle of a war induced oil boom, for example, which would have been good to know if I was imagining what the life of a 17 or 18 year old here was like in 1941.  The same was sort of true, the oil boom part, in 1981.  There were some real differences in the economies here of 41 and 81 however.

In 41 there was no junior college, as they called them commonly then, as there is now.  Indeed, my father attended the local community college in what would have been one of its very early classes.  It was located in the high school at the time, which I would find dispiriting now, but which provided a real opportunity then.  But it didn't exist in 41.  I think it may have come in around 1946.

That would mean that educationally, as I noted, I'd have gone on to the University of Wyoming, probably, in 1941.

I note all of this as this presents roadblocks and diversions to how a person might engage in such a mental exercise, and that's the point.  Too often when people do something like this they imagine going back to a perfect world  The classic example is the Middle Ages and where you would have fit into them.

I can just as easily do that, as a mental exercise, but if I do there's more leaps. For one thing, in order to make that realistic, I'd have to go back to one of my ancestral cultures and locations.  I know them, so that's easy enough.  But more than that, I'd have to keep things realistic.

Usually when people do this they imagine themselves living in a castle and being a knight or something.  Indeed, I've seen exercises written for children which were "what was it like to live in a castle?".  Well, most people at that time wouldn't have know the answer to that question.

Most people would have known the answer to "what was it like to live in a hovel and subsist mostly a diet of grains augmented by whatever wild rabbits I could snare". That's quite a bit different.

But maybe a more useful lesson.

Retroactive Counter Factual. Imagining yourself seventy-nine years ago.


Am I the only one who finds Korean boy bands to be super creepy?

As in really creepy?

Frankly, I find Korean girl bands to be pretty creepy also.  

The other day an issue of People was laying around and I thumbed through it and found an article on a Korean K Pop girl band.  Really creepy. They're obviously the Bubble Gum of their day in a decade people will look back on them laughingly, with their assembled personalities and westernized pink hair, etc.  Indeed, people will probably find them uncomfortable.

But the boy bands?  Really creepy.

Blog Mirror: In Blue States and Red, Pandemic Upends Public Services and Jobs

The region in the NYT and indeed the town in it as well, with the whose of the court system in a time of economic struggle noted.

We criticize the NYT here a fair amount, but this area rarely makes an appearance in it, so we're noting it.

As a standoff over federal aid persists, state and local governments are making deep budget cuts. “Everything’s going to slow down,” one official said.

Tuesday, December 8, 2020

The Aerodrome: Chuck Yeager passes at age 97.

The Aerodrome: Chuck Yeager passes at age 97.

Chuck Yeager passes at age 97.


Brigadier General Charles Elwood Yeager died yesterday at age 97.

Yeager entered the United States Army Air Force in 1941 as a private.  He was an aircraft mechanic at first but volunteered for flight training and was promoted to Flight Officer, a rank more or less equivalent to warrant officer.  He flew P51s during World War Two and was stationed in the ETO.  He became a test pilot following World War Two and famously broke the sound barrier in that role flying the X1 "Glamourous Glennis", which was named after his wife.

Yeager had a long Air Force career which was likely somewhat arrested, as famous as he was, by the fact that he was not a college graduate, having entered the Air Force at a time in which it was still possible to become a pilot without a college degree.  The movie The Right Stuff, in which Yeager was played by Sam Shepard (and in which Yeager had a cameo role as a bar tender), based on the book by Tom Wolfe, asserted that he was ineligible to become an astronaut for that reason.  Whether or not that is true, he certainly was a justifiably famous character and in some ways his passing on December 7 was oddly symbolic.

 

Tempus fugit

I was at a store on Sunday when a fellow I know there told me he was retiring.  I was stunned.  He noted that he'd worked there eighteen years.  My wife remembered he'd worked at a predecessor store we went to before that.

He noted the time had passed by rapidly.

Last Friday, when I left the office, a man older than me was helping his father into the building.  His father was wearing a baseball cap, noting that he was a World War Two veteran.  I was actually surprised, as there are so few left.

On Sunday night, I typed out my counterfactual on what it would have been like to graduate from high school in 1941, when I in fact graduated in 1981.  In that, I noted that men my age now were in that class of 1941.  I don't feel that old, and I guess in 1981 they weren't that old.  1981 doesn't seem that long ago to me.

Tempus fugit.  But it's okay, really.

Somehow, those close to me in my past who have gone ahead seem closer now than ever.

Those Tires. Was, Lex Anteinternet: The Week. Old Injuries and Old Addictions (Coffee...

Lex Anteinternet: The Week. Old Injuries and Old Addictions (Coffee...:

Man these tires are massive.  And they sure look like radials, even though they can't be.

The Long Range Desert Group in North Africa. These guys needed to hydrate.

Monday, December 7, 2020

December 7, 1920. Wilson's last State of the Union Address.

Woodrow Wilson, President from March 4, 1913 to March 4, 1921.

Woodrow Wilson delivered his final State of the Union address.  Like the prior years, it was read to Congress rather than personally delivered by Wilson due to Wilson's ill health.  Wilson had started the tradition of personally delivering his address.

It read:

GENTLEMEN OF THE CONGRESS:

When I addressed myself to performing the duty laid upon the President by the Constitution to present to you an annual report on the state of the Union, I found my thought dominated by an immortal sentence of Abraham Lincoln's-"Let us have faith that right makes might, and in that faith let us dare to do our duty as we understand it" -a sentence immortal because it embodies in a form of utter simplicity and purity the essential faith of the nation, the faith in which it was conceived, and the faith in which it has grown to glory and power. With that faith and the birth of a nation founded upon it came the hope into the world that a new order would prevail throughout the affairs of mankind, an order in which reason and right would take precedence over covetousness and force; and I believe that I express the wish and purpose of every thoughtful American when I say that this sentence marks for us in the plainest manner the part we should play alike in the arrangement of our domestic affairs and in our exercise of influence upon the affairs of the world.

By this faith, and by this faith alone, can the world be lifted out of its present confusion and despair. It was this faith which prevailed over the wicked force of Germany. You will remember that the beginning of the end of the war came when the German people found themselves face to face with the conscience of the world and realized that right was everywhere arrayed against the wrong that their government was attempting to perpetrate. I think, therefore, that it is true to say that this was the faith which won the war. Certainly this is the faith with which our gallant men went into the field and out upon the seas to make sure of victory.

This is the mission upon which Democracy came into the world. Democracy is an assertion of the right of the individual to live and to be treated justly as against any attempt on the part of any combination of individuals to make laws which will overburden him or which will destroy his equality among his fellows in the matter of right or privilege; and I think we all realize that the day has come when Democracy is being put upon its final test. The Old World is just now suffering from a wanton rejection of the principle of democracy and a substitution of the principle of autocracy as asserted in the name, but without the authority and sanction, of the multitude. This is the time of all others when Democracy should prove its purity and its spiritual power to prevail. It is surely the manifest destiny of the United States to lead in the attempt to make this spirit prevail.

There are two ways in which the United States can assist to accomplish this great object. First, by offering the example within her own borders of the will and power of Democracy to make and enforce laws which are unquestionably just and which are equal in their administration-laws which secure its full right to Labor and yet at the same time safeguard the integrity of property, and particularly of that property which is devoted to the development of industry and the increase of the necessary wealth of the world. Second, by standing for right and justice as toward individual nations. The law of Democracy is for the protection of the weak, and the influence of every democracy in the world should be for the protection of the weak nation, the nation which is struggling toward its right and toward its proper recognition and privilege in the family of nations.

The United States cannot refuse this role of champion without putting the stigma of rejection upon the great and devoted men who brought its government into existence and established it in the face of almost universal opposition and intrigue, even in the face of wanton force, as, for example, against the Orders in Council of Great Britain and the arbitrary Napoleonic decrees which involved us in what we know as the War of 1812.

I urge you to consider that the display of an immediate disposition on the part of the Congress to remedy any injustices or evils that may have shown themselves in our own national life will afford the most effectual offset to the forces of chaos and tyranny which are playing so disastrous a part in the fortunes of the free peoples of more than one part of the world. The United States is of necessity the sample democracy of the world, and the triumph of Democracy depends upon its success.

Recovery from the disturbing and sometimes disastrous effects of the late war has been exceedingly slow on the other side of the water, and has given promise, I venture-to say, of early completion only in our own fortunate country; but even with us the recovery halts and is impeded at times, and there are immediately serviceable acts of legislation which it seems to me we ought to attempt, to assist that recovery and prove the indestructible recuperative force of a great government of the people. One of these is to prove that a great democracy can keep house as successfully and in as business-like a fashion as any other government. It seems to me that the first step toward providing this is to supply ourselves with a systematic method of handling our estimates and expenditures and bringing them to the point where they will not be an unnecessary strain upon our income or necessitate unreasonable taxation; in other words, a workable budget system. And I respectfully suggest that two elements are essential to such a system-namely, not only that the proposal of appropriations should be in the hands of a single body, such as a single appropriations committee in each house of the Congress, but also that this body should be brought into such cooperation with the Departments of the Government and with the Treasury of the United States as would enable it to act upon a complete conspectus of the needs of the Government and the resources from which it must draw its income.

I reluctantly vetoed the budget bill passed by the last session of the Congress because of a constitutional objection. The House of Representatives subsequently modified the bill in order to meet this objection. In the revised form, I believe that the bill, coupled with action already taken by the Congress to revise its rules and procedure, furnishes the foundation for an effective national budget system. I earnestly hope, therefore, that one of the first steps to be taken by the present session of the Congress will be to pass the budget bill.

The nation's finances have shown marked improvement during the last year. The total ordinary receipts of $6,694,000,000 for the fiscal year 1920 exceeded those for 1919 by $1,542,000,000, while the total net ordinary expenditures decreased from $18,514,000,000 to $6,403,000,000. The gross public debt, which reached its highest point on August 31, 1919, when it was $26,596,000,000, had dropped on November 30, 1920, to $24,175,000,000.

There has also been a marked decrease in holdings of government war securities by the banking institutions of the country, as well as in the amount of bills held by the Federal Reserve Banks secured by government war obligations. This fortunate result has relieved the banks and left them freer to finance the needs of Agriculture, Industry, and Commerce. It has been due in large part to the reduction of the public debt, especially of the floating debt, but more particularly to the improved distribution of government securities among permanent investors. The cessation of the Government's borrowings, except through short-term certificates of indebtedness, has been a matter of great consequence to the people of the country at large, as well as to the holders of Liberty Bonds and Victory Notes, and has had an important bearing on the matter of effective credit control.

The year has been characterized by the progressive withdrawal of the Treasury from the domestic credit market and from a position of dominant influence in that market. The future course will necessarily depend upon the extent to which economies are practiced and upon the burdens placed upon the Treasury, as well as upon industrial developments and the maintenance of tax receipts at a sufficiently high level. The fundamental fact which at present dominates the Government's financial situation is that seven and a half billions of its war indebtedness mature within the next two and a half years. Of this amount, two and a half billions are floating debt and five billions, Victory Notes and War. Savings Certificates. The fiscal program of the Government must be determined with reference to these maturities. Sound policy demands that Government expenditures be reduced to the lowest amount which will permit the various services to operate efficiently and that Government receipts from taxes and salvage be maintained sufficiently high to provide for current requirements, including interest and sinking fund charges on the public debt, and at the same time retire the floating debt and part of the Victory Loan before maturity.

With rigid economy, vigorous salvage operations, and adequate revenues from taxation, a surplus of current receipts over current expenditures can be realized and should be applied to the floating debt. All branches of the Government should cooperate to see that this program is realized. I cannot overemphasize the necessity of economy in Government appropriations and expenditures and the avoidance by the Congress of practices which take money from the Treasury by indefinite or revolving fund appropriations. The estimates for the present year show that over a billion dollars of expenditures were authorized by the last Congress in addition to the amounts shown in the usual compiled statements of appropriations. This strikingly illustrates the importance of making direct and specific appropriations. The relation between the current receipts and current expenditures of the Government during the present fiscal year, as well as during the last half of the last fiscal year, has been disturbed by the extraordinary burdens thrown upon the Treasury by the Transportation Act, in connection with the return of the railroads to private control. Over $600,000,000 has already been paid to the railroads under this act-$350,000,000 during the present fiscal year; and it is estimated that further payments aggregating possibly $650,000,000 must still be made to the railroads during the current year. It is obvious that these large payments have already seriously limited the Government's progress in retiring the floating debt.

Closely connected with this, it seems to me, is the necessity for an immediate consideration of the revision of our tax laws. Simplification of the income and profits taxes has become an immediate necessity. These taxes performed an indispensable service during the war. The need for their simplification, however, is very great, in order to save the taxpayer inconvenience and expense and in order to make his liability more certain and definite. Other and more detailed recommendations with regard to taxes will no doubt be laid before you by the Secretary of the Treasury and the Commissioner of Internal Revenue.

It is my privilege to draw to the attention of Congress for very sympathetic consideration the problem of providing adequate facilities for the care and treatment of former members of the military and naval forces who are sick and disabled as the result of their participation in the war. These heroic men can never be paid in money for the service they patriotically rendered the nation. Their reward will lie rather in realization of the fact that they vindicated the rights of their country and aided in safeguarding civilization. The nation's gratitude must be effectively revealed to them by the most ample provision for their medical care and treatment as well as for their vocational training and placement. The time has come when a more complete program can be formulated and more satisfactorily administered for their treatment and training, and I earnestly urge that the Congress give the matter its early consideration. The Secretary of the Treasury and the Board for Vocational Education will outline in their annual reports proposals covering medical care and rehabilitation which I am sure will engage your earnest study and commend your most generous support.

Permit me to emphasize once more the need for action upon certain matters upon which I dwelt at some length in my message to the second session of the Sixty-sixth Congress. The necessity, for example, of encouraging the manufacture of dyestuffs and related chemicals; the importance of doing everything possible to promote agricultural production along economic lines, to improve agricultural marketing, and to make rural life more attractive and healthful; the need for a law regulating cold storage in such a way as to limit the time during which goods may be kept in storage, prescribing the method of disposing of them if kept beyond the permitted period, and requiring goods released from storage in all cases to bear the date of their receipt. It would also be most serviceable if it were provided that all goods released from cold storage for interstate shipment should have plainly marked upon each package the selling or market price at which they went into storage, in order that the purchaser might be able to learn what profits stood between him and the producer or the wholesale dealer. Indeed, It would be very serviceable to the public if all goods destined for interstate commerce were made to carry upon every packing case whose form made it possible a plain statement of the price at which they left the hands of the producer. I respectfully call your attention also to the recommendations of the message referred to with regard to a federal license for all corporations engaged in interstate commerce.

In brief, the immediate legislative need of the time is the removal of all obstacles to the realization of the best ambitions of our people in their several classes of employment and the strengthening of all instrumentalities by. which difficulties are to be met and removed and justice dealt out, whether by law or by some form of mediation and conciliation. I do not feel it to be my privilege at present to, suggest the detailed and particular methods by which these objects may be attained, but I have faith that the inquiries of your several committees will discover the way and the method.

In response to what I believe to be the impulse of sympathy and opinion throughout the United States, I earnestly suggest that the Congress authorize the Treasury of the United States to make to the struggling government of Armenia such a loan as was made to several of the Allied governments during the war, and I would also suggest that it would be desirable to provide in the legislation itself that the expenditure of the money thus loaned should be under the supervision of a commission, or at least a commissioner, from the United States in order that revolutionary tendencies within Armenia itself might not be afforded by the loan a further tempting opportunity.

Allow me to call your attention to the fact that the people of the Philippine Islands have succeeded in maintaining a stable government since the last action of the Congress in their behalf, and have thus fulfilled the condition set by the Congress as precedent to a consideration of granting independence to the Islands. I respectfully submit that this condition precedent having been fulfilled, it is now our liberty and our duty to keep our promise to the people of those islands by granting them the independence which they so honorably covet.

I have not so much laid before you a series of recommendations, gentlemen, as sought to utter a confession of faith, of the faith in which I was bred and which it is my solemn purpose to stand by until my last fighting day. I believe this to be the faith of America, the faith of the future, and of all the victories which await national action in the days to come, whether in America or elsewhere.

The same day featured a Senate Ladies Tea which was attended by Mrs. Harding.


 

Retroactive Counter Factual. Imagining yourself seventy-nine years ago.

It's always temping to look back at an historic event and imagine "where would I have been".  I have to admit, having an historical inclination and mindset, if you will, I do that often.


When I do, I usually imagine it with some calendar related restrains.  I'm not sure why, but to some degree I don't think you can accurately imagine where you would have been, and what you would have done, but for that.  The constraints of time, when you were born, and how that plays into where you are at anyone time, are an inescapable fact.  I know that I tend to do that pretty strongly, when inserting my hypothetical self into past events.


Having said that, for whatever reason, in seeing something on the upcoming 79th anniversary of the Japanese attack on Pearl Harbor, to some extent the real framework of "1941" struck me for the the first time, in a realistic sense just the other day.  It's weird, as I've looked back to World War Two quite a few times, as I imagine nearly everyone with a sense of history, and imagination, and wondered "where would I have been"?


I graduated from high school in 1981; forty hears after. . . well not actually forty years after, the Japanese raid on Pearl Harbor, Hawaii.*  In May 1981 when I graduated from high school I was 17 years old.  I joined the National Guard that following August, by which time I was 18, not even telling my parents that I had done it before I had.  That, in some odd way, tend to have formed my frame of reference looking back, as that puts my actual military experience in context.


But in looking at the calendar of the United States in World War Two, the National Guard was mobilized in August 1940.  So if I imagine myself 40 years prior, and apply a sort of calendrical lock to it so that I would have graduated from high school in 1941, instead of 1981, the National Guard would have been mobilized for a year.


Now, I also know that lots of high school men, and no matter how we might imagine it the story of service during World War Two includes women, but far more it includes men, had been in the local unit of the National Guard at that time. Indeed, the 115th Cavalry, Horse Mech, included not only a lot of high school students, a significant percentage in fact, but it included a lot of underaged ones.  Would I have been in that number?  Those too  young to serve in the Army were discharged, along with those too aged and infirm to serve.  Were the 17 year old sent?  I imagine some where, some were not, depending upon their wishes and those of their parents, maybe.


I wonder.  I like to think that I would have, and just knowing myself I probably would have joined the unit in high school, probably whenever I could have, but who knows.  Maybe not?


Well, in my own actual life in my junior high years I was in the Civil Air Patrol and I did in fact join the National Guard when still a teenager.  So my guess is that I probably would have.  Almost certainly.  I didn't, however, join high school JrROTC (which was mandatory for those in our local high school until some date in the 1970s), so maybe not.  Indeed, at that time I conceived of myself as busy, so I may not have.


In August 1940 I would have been 17. So would that have meant that I would have been mobilized with the 115th?


Maybe.  It's hard to know for sure.  I know that the 115th discharged a lot of underaged soldiers, as noted above, right at the start of their mobilization, and I know that the U.S. Army required parents consent to enlist until you were 18.  Contrary to what people typically think, the service itself wasn't too keen on teenage soldiers at the time.  


I know that my father wouldn't have been, but it would have been just my father's consideration at the time, assuming my life otherwise played out as it did, my mother being horribly ill when I was 17.  I'd have only been 17 for a few months at the time and also knowing myself I very well may have waited until fall to join, if I'd been planning to.  I only joined the National Guard in August 1981 as I'd planned on going to the University of Wyoming that fall and joining ROTC but changed my mind and didn't want to be hypocritical to my stated desires, so I joined the Guard.


Indeed, looking back, I'm stunned how earnest I was in my convictions.


That plays a role here too.


So, on December 7, 1941, I might have been an 18 year old cavalryman at Ft. Lewis Washington, surprised, and not surprised, that the nation was finally at war.


Or I might have been an 18 year old University of Wyoming student (the community colleges didn't yet exist here).

If that was the case, and for reasons I can't quite define I think it more likely, I would have joined the service after that semester.  And it would have been the Army.

If I'd gone to Ft. Lewis with the National Guard at some point I would have cadred out, almost certainly, and have been assigned to some other unit as an NCO.  Likely armor, and that would have likely meant Operation Torch and the ETO in that branch.  Most of the war. . . if a person survived it.

If it was UW and on to the Army, I wouldn't have opted for armor but rather for infantry, and maybe airborne, knowing myself.  Same theatre and the like, but probably less of it.  And again, assuming a person survived it.

All of which is interesting to imagine, and I'm surprised that I haven't really though of this retroactive counterfactual in this context before.

*This upcoming year, 2021, I will be as many years from my high school graduation as I was from World War Two at the time I graduated. A sobering thought.  This effectively means that, at that time, high school graduates from the class of 1941 were men my present age, something that's stunning to imagine.