Tuesday, January 7, 2020

Angst. A Then and Now Analysis

I don't know that anyone has ever attempted a history of stress and anxiety, and if they have, it might be tough to do and therefore questionable in the first place.

Indeed, it might in some ways be impossible, in part because the nature of stress and anxiety and related conditions have been perceived differently in different eras, if noticed at all.  In the 18th Century the Melancholic personality, which we'd regard as a Depressive one, was celebrated as a romantic condition as it was perceived that such people simply felt everything too deeply, an observation that was perhaps not entirely inaccurate.  Shakespeare made Hamlet, the Melancholy Dane, the subject of his famous play of no later than 1602.  It's a justifiably famous play, but in recent years its hard not to find the character of Hamlet a bit too mopey, and the character of Ophelia as oddly undeveloped.  

Edwin Booth as Hamlet, 1870.

King Henry VI slipped into such a deep funk, perhaps caused by the monumental strain of being a monarch in an era when somebody was always looking to depose you from inside the country or attack you from without, that he slipped into severe mental illness episodes starting in 1453 and he was deposed in 1461 (and murdered shortly thereafter).  While he attempted to lead on occasion, for much of that period, he was completely incapacitated by his condition.

King Henry VI. While Sheakespeare's Hamlet may have been a depressed fictional prince, King Henry VI was a real one, which lead to periods of complete incapacity and ultimate his death.

Genetics and stress may have pushed King Henry VI over the edge, but it's not too hard to find other examples of lesser figures who similarly suffered.  "Soldier's Heart" was identified as a condition that afflicted combat veterans during the Civil War, which means that it must have existed in prior conflicts as well, as the combat soldier of the American Civil War wasn't really all that different than the combat soldier of the American Revolution or the English Civil War.  Certainly by the end of the Great War Shell Shock was well identified as a psychological condition, from which some afflicted never recovered.

Australian first aid station, World War One.

Less dramatic but just as well noted, the condition described as a "nervous breakdown" was well attested to from at least the early 20th Century up through its third quarter.  The term "nervous breakdown" was once widely used as a medical term but now no longer is, although its still used as a non medical one.  It's generally regarded as a period fo itnense anxiety, stress and depression (hmmm. . .just what we're talking about here) leading to a period of incapacitation.  While the term is no longer used, the condtion described still occurs, so its still something, sort of, at least.  The term has been used to describe periods of mental incapacitation in such famous varied people as Marilyn Monroe to Kanye West.

Indeed, one of the oddities of nervous breakdowns is that while they were hardly limited (or more particularly are hardly limited) to the famous, at one time quite a few well to do people reportedly had them, which routinely lead them taking "the cure", which was usually a very long vacation.  We'll get to that later on, but that's oddly modern in some ways.

On nervous conditions not being limited to the famous, a close friend of mine once related how her grandfather, a railroad worker with a large family, had a nervous breakdown over the birth of her mother, as he was realtively advanced in eyars at the time (60s?).  Having had a large family already, he just couldn't deal with the stress of an added child late in life.  Closer to home, it's family lore that my mother's father suffered from something like a nervous breakdown when young and as a result was sent for "the cure" in Hawaii. Whatever was the case, it's clear that he was a high strung fellow in lifelong poor health and he certainly suffered from high anxiety, a condition that lead him to drink quite a bit until he suddenly one day simply quit drinking entirely.  As my grandmother's late in life poor health also resulted in her being unable to, shall we say, engage in marital duties that was lost to him as well and yet he was, late in life, pretty much universally cheerful, which says something about his personality and perhaps provides a lesson in this overall thread.

Given all of this above, there'd be real reason to doubt that stress and anxiety are really on the rise. And yet it is reported that in recent decades they are, and there does seem to be good reason to believe that stress and anxiety, let's call it Angst, are on the rise.  Indeed, mental health professionals commonly report it so, and we see all sorts of societal reactions, most probably wholly ineffective, but a few that are likely on to something, being floated here and there.

So what's going on here?

We'll, we aren't licensed to really opine, but that's never stopped us before, so we'll add our thoughts about what is going on to cause this modern plague here in this thread.  Before we do, however, we'll note that we sort of touched on this before, here in this thread:

A Western World Modern Crisis: Suicide


Indeed, that thread directly deals with this topic and is worth revisiting.  And shoot, it's less than a year old as well.

Indeed, that thread noted much of what we're noting here, even though our reason for posting this one, a series of recent news articles, isn't directly the same.  Our earlier item, anyhow, noted the following:

The first one was a headline which noted that Americans are dying of suicide and alcoholism at all time record highs.

U.S. deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide hit highest level since record-keeping began



Alcoholism, if that's correct, would be amazing, and I'd at least somewhat question that figure as the alcoholic rates before Prohibition were stunning.  But the suicide one deserves some attention, and an increasing rate of alcoholism also does.

Of course, we have to be aware that statistics are only relevant in the context of the period they address, and this one only addresses a fairly compact period of time.  The USA Today article noted:
The number of deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide in 2017 hit the highest level since federal data collection started in 1999, according to an analysis of Centers for Disease Control and Prevention data by two public health nonprofits.
The national rate for deaths from alcohol, drugs and suicide rose from 43.9 to 46.6 deaths per 100,000 people in 2017, a 6 percent increase, the Trust for America's Health and the Well Being Trust reported Tuesday. That was a slower increase than in the previous two years, but it was greater than the 4 percent average annual increase since 1999.
Deaths from suicides rose from 13.9 to 14.5 deaths per 100,000, a 4 percent increase. That was double the average annual pace over the previous decade.

Anyhow, let's start with something obvious.  And in doing so, we'll link in a few things here that we've noted before.

Let's start with our Third Law of Behavior:

Holscher's Third Law of Behavior.  I know why the caged tiger paces.








That's really upsetting to some people, but it simply isn't understood.  If understood, this does not imply any sort of a limitation on either sex, and indeed in aboriginal societies that are really, really, primitive there's much less than in any other society, including our modernized Western one.  Inequality comes in pretty early in societies, but some change in condition from the most primitive seems to be necessary in order to create it.  So, properly understood, those very ancient genetic impulses that were there when we were hiking across the velt hoping not to get eaten by a lion, and hoping to track down an antelope, and planting and raising small gardens, are still there.  That they're experienced differently by the genders is tempered by the fact that, in those ancient times, a lot of early deaths meant that the opposite gender had to step into the other's role, and therefore we're also perfectly capable of doing that.  It's the root basic natures we're talking about, however, that we're discussing here, and that spark to hunt, fish, defend and plant a garden are in there, no matter how much steel and concrete we may surround ourselves with.







In short, you may have forgotten nature, but nature hasn't forgotten you.

Here's something we noted earlier on this topic.

There's a seeming epidemic of suicide in the Western World.  In at least one area of the East, Japan, suicide has been at blistering levels for decades.

This is not true, however, of all societies everywhere.  Most specifically, it isn't true of those areas of the world that remain more rural than the West, and frankly more agrarian, and more authentically religious.  And by religious, I mean in the real sense, not the vague meaningless "spiritual but not religious" sense that Western "moderns" sometimes profess or in the Western Hollywood Buddhist sense.**


Our species has been around for a really long time.  It'll turn out, I'm confident, that as a species we've been around a lot longer than we now believe we were. But we have only lived the way most of us do now for a very, very, brief time.  For almost our entire history as a species we were nomadic.  Following that, we were agrarians for a long time.  We've become what we are not, urbanized, only very briefly and we've become urbanized in our current massive way only very, very recently.

In fact, nature is giving moderns the dope slap.  You weren't made to live in a giant city of millions working in an office of thousands for a company of thousands with a rootless career. But that's what we've come around to and what we celebrate.  No, nature figures you ought to be out in sticks, maybe the veld, or the steppes, or in short nature, living a natural life and nature isn't interested in any of your wacky diets of the moment, vegan, essential oils, baloney.  Kill a deer and eat is what nature figures, and that doesn't take 40 hours every week to accomplish.

Put another way, Great Thunberg, age 16, just reported that her recent fame pulled out of a year long depression.  She's 16 years old

No doubt, you figure, her intense angst over the environment is causing this depression?

No, it's probably her moronic diet and deeply unnatural lifestyle.

Just fifty years ago most Swedes, which is what Thunberg is, were farmers or fishermen.  They're famous for being dour, but that was a product of their combined think resources and the harsh brand of Evangelical Lutheranism that came to dominate in Scandinavia in the late 19th Century. Strict adherence to the Evangelical Lutheran Church has greatly waned as the Swedes became wealthy (like lots of people, the Swedes found the Gospels inconvenient when they had money and the pill), but in another way it lingers on in a dour view of life, now added to through the messed up concept that one diet or another will extend your life forever, the more unnatural it is the better.

Now, I don't really mean to pick on the 16 year old directly as I figure her stupid diet and her being used in the manner she is, no matter what you think of the cause, isn't her fault or even really doing.  Left to their own devices and a chance to run their own households a sizable minority of 16 year olds would make bad decisions.  No, the point is that now that we've lost contact with nature in a direct form, the entire Western World is making bad choices.

This blog has, obviously, focused on the past and the past of a century ago.  Let's not fall into the illusion that everything in the past was perfect.  That's far from true.  But let's also not pretend that evolutionary biology has skipped us. We're not really made to do what we're doing, in the examples of most people.

And, to take it out further, in the very modern world, the intense devotion to money and material goods has unhinged us.

The post World War Two world has been vastly rich.  When the free market economy nations, which of course were the democratic nations, by and large, of the post war era triumphed over Communism in the Cold War, that process of wealth ramped up even more than it had.  Capitalist like to point out, and quite rightly, that capitalism has lifted huge swatches of the globe out of poverty.  Indeed, again only fifty or so years ago, the majority of human beings once lived in poverty.  And as we've noted here before, prior to World War Two most Americans were middle class, but lower middle class on the edge of poverty constantly, and even when things were good.

Economically, therefore, we're now far, far better off, globally, than every before. But at the same time the real question now is whether we can handle that wealth.  The evidence isn't good.  We've clearly become obsessed with it and we've become extremely narcissistic about it.  We live in hideous conditions, in real terms, for wealth, we enter career occupations solely due to it, we live in cities because of it, and we avoid children and dump spouses due to it.  More recently, a lot of younger people avoid marriage entirely and simply live in a series of sad shacking ups, which implies the ability to leave somebody who nature has bonded, through their conduct, at the drop of a dollar bill.

Nature doesn't like that.  Not any of it.

Indeed, as we earlier noted:


Well so what, you may ask.  Haven't sociologist determined that agrarian life was miserable and people moved to the cities to be super happy?

No, well not any more anyhow.

There was at one time a running line of sociological thought, propaganda really, that basically ran just that way.  But more recent research has determined that nomadic people today, who are admittedly very few in number, are the happiest people on earth hands down.  Next to them, people who are basically agrarian in nature fit that category.  The least happy people on Earth are those who live in highly urbanized societies.  And as we now know Western suicide is beginning to become a plague, meaning we're joining the highly urbanized Japanese in that tragic classification.

Depression and anxiety are nature's wake up calls.  Nature is giving us a dope slap.

As we earlier put it:

It really doesn't require all that much thought.  But we won't think about it as it runs entirely contrary to the concept of "progress" and the intellectual dictatorship of progressivism we are now in.

Let's break it down even further.


We're a really smart animal, but an animal none the less, and we were evolved to live out in the wilds.  That's where, it truly turns out, we are the happiest.  In our native state we hunted and gathered, which more accurately means we hunted, gathered and existed in subsistence nomadic agriculture.  We at some point evolved the latter into a more fixed form, but often missed in that is that early agriculture was an adjustment of the existing pattern, not an abolishment of it.  In hunter gatherer societies, the men principally engaged in hunting and the women in gathering and both in some farming, quite often.  In agrarian societies, even fairly modern ones, the men engaged in the farming, the women supported the farming, but the men were almost always still hunters.  If you look at a society that was agrarian fairly recently, such as Finland or Norway,  you'll find that hunting and fishing is always common.  Even in Ireland, which was agrarian to a large extent up until the Celtic Tiger changed that and began to change Ireland to its ultimate misery, that was more true than we might suppose, with fishing, bird hunting and small game hunting common in a land that was otherwise obsessed with depriving the population of the means of rebelling in the same fashion which it had only recently against the English.

What are the features of such a life?

Close connection to nature is one thing.  Nature for such populations is everyday and immediate, not something that they encounter, probably in a sanitized form, on vacation somewhere.  Not the safe nature that people who pay to ride on a zip line in Costa Rica encounter either.

To add to this, one of the things contributing to our anxiety is forgetting the past, along with forgetting evolutionary biology, which gets us to this:

Holscher's Fourth Law of Behavior.  Old standards existed for a real reason.


From time to time, almost every society throws off a bunch of old standards.  When they do that, they usually declare them to have been irrelevant for all time, but they hardly ever are.  They were there for a reason.  Sometimes, they no longer apply, but that's because something deeply fundamental has changed.  Other times, the underlying reason keeps on keeping on and the reason for it tends to be rediscovered, slowly, as if its a new discovery.  People fail to think about the deep basis for standards, the really deep ones, at their behavior.  Again, that doesn't mean that some shouldn't be changed, or should never have come into existence, but even in those rare instances careful thought should be given to the matter so that the basic nature of the underlying error can be understood.

Out of combination of desperation, narcissism and wealth, the tail end of the 20th Century and the beginning of the 21st have been marked by a dumping of old standards in celebration of what amounts to a new "Me Decade" on steroids.  It's been taken to the absurd level.

At almost any earlier time in history people who  lived well defined themselves by things outside themselves.  The now highly celebrated "Greatest Generation" is celebrated due to the imperfect and inaccurate memory of them as a class of men who left their homes, families and their lives, for the greater good of 1) their nation and 2) the world as a whole.  In other words, they're remembered as people who gave up something for everyone and not for themselves.

In contrast to that, we now have the absolute celebration not only of the individual, but the interior mind of the individual, no matter how poorly formed.  Wealth and the pill have given individuals in the Western World time to do not much other than feed their inclinations.  This has in recent years been focused on sex, one of the most trivial things imaginable to be obsessed on an existential level about, although this trend, in fairness, started as long ago as the during the influential period of Sigmund Freud.

Sigmund Freud, unscientific weirdo.

Truth be known, if approached from a scientific prospective, and again from evolutionary biology,t he entire sex thing sorts out pretty easily.  There are two genders and only two.  Human beings are possessed of a high sex drive.  In a state of nature people pair up generally in their twenties and the resulting bond, while perhaps beset by the assaults of time and trials, is generally lifelong.

Humans are also a species that's best by lots of individual deviations many of which are destructive and cause us misery.  Eat too much you get fat and can die, which doesn't mean that certain people aren't super driven towards food.  Alcohol may have made the water safe but drink too much of it and you'll die.  You should sleep around eight hours every night but some people can't and that shortens their lives.  

Modern life contributes to all of that.  It would have been really hard to become a fat Cro Magnon. There probably weren't any.  You don't see any photographs of chubby Native Americans in Edward Curtis films, nor do you find any of chubby yeoman farmers in anyone's photographs, nor of obese 19th and early 20th Century cowboys.  But they had extremely active lives and they didn't eat a lot of process high fat, high sugar, food.  Likewise, there have been alcoholics for a long, long time, but chances are that the numbers in the Middle Ages, even when alcohol was hte normal drink for most, weren't that high.  Most yeoman farmers and Native Americans no doubt slept the whole  night through peacefully.  And so on.  And, no matter what their inclinations on an individual basis was, nobody went around demanding that they be identified by who they wanted to bed, or how many, or under what terms, at any time in human history right up until the 21st Century.

The fact that we make such demands now is a symptom of our misery, idleness and purposelessness.  The biographer of Field Marshall Bernard Law Montgomery was of the opinion that the Field Marshall was a homosexual, and indeed his son likewise had that opinion.  But they were also of the opinion that Montgomery, who was an extremely busy man, wasn't even aware of it if he was.  John Ford, the filmmaker, routinely fell in love with multiple actresses according to his biographer, but in spite of rumors that exist to the contrary, his biographer was of the opinion that while he fell deeply in love with some, he remained loyal to his wife Mary, and his Catholic faith, and deeply devoted to his craft. Roger Casement may have had very strong homosexual inclinations, or he may have been framed by British agents so that people believced that, but his defining characteristics were his dedication to humanitarian causes and Irish indpendence.


The point of all of this is something that Max Hastings, the famous British historian, noted at a speech he delivered to American university students following the release of his book on the Vietnam War.  When asked how students of the 1960s who opposed the war compared to students today, Hastings simply noted that he hoped current students would think about something that wasn't as trivial as sex.

My point is a little broader, however.  The absolutely manic focus on everyone self defining in every single way  is because that same 60s generation tore down the concept that the old standards meant anything. They very much did, and we keep trying to grope our way back to them. At the same time, society is also engaged in the absurd concept that everyone can self define what they are and who they are. They can't, as we're all members of the same species, and that actually defines most of what we are, and who we are.  The differences we otherwise see are very often extremely trivial and, beyond that, may simply be erroneous and inaccurate self assumptions based upon living in unnatural conditions without much to do.

Straying off of this a bit, another aspect of this is the manic emphasis on career.

There have always been "careers", but for much of human history most people occupied a fairly manual labor set of careers and the emphasis on career was limited to a few, and even then it was rarely expressed at the manic level things are now.

Now, you simply must have a career.  You must.  You won't be fulfilled if you don't have a career.

Well, we've long known that careers don't fulfill anyone.  And yet the lie continues on.  Indeed, not only does it continue, it's spread to where now women, who formerly weren't under the same pressure that they must have a career, are.  The great lie of female advancement is that men have let them into the fulfillment of careers.  In fact, due economic developments, they've been forced upon them.

As noted, careers have always been around, but the emphasis on careerism was not present in the same degree, except really among the upper economic classes, where oddly the truly wealthy were exempt from it.  Now, everyone is subject to the continually pressure of career success.

I've seen this among the young, but even among the old.  In some fields the career pressure has reached the point where people of retirement age are expected not to.  Indeed, I just oddly had a conversation with a lawyer (I'm not of retirement age) on this myself, in which they suggested that I should switch party emphasis in the law field and could have a "long career as a plaintiff's lawyer ahead" of me.  At my age, 56, I don't have a long anything ahead of me, but why would somebody even conceive of a person approaching 60 years of age as wanting to have decades of future hard work in front of them?  That's an odd thought, but not odd anymore in the legal field where people really aren't ever supposed to retire. That same view isn't unique to this field, however, but is common in business as well.

As part of all of this the old, and normal, focus of people on having "jobs" to support their families is gone.  Now people actually talk about their families or their spouses supporting their careers.   That's really messed up, and people know that at their core.

Then there's the news:

Holscher's Sixth Law of Behavior.  A lot of folks believe they live in the worst times ever even if they don't.Human historical memory is amazingly short.  As a result of that, people often think that they're enduring epic hardship and live in hideous times, even if they do not.Current times are a good example.  Many people believe the entire world is awash in a sea of massive violence such as the world has never known.  In actuality, things have never been so peaceful. Crime of all types is down all over the globe.  Warfare between sovereign states has almost disappeared.  Civil wars continue to rage on, but not at the level they once did.  Consider the 1930s and 1940s. For much of that time every major nation was engaged in a war so violent that destroying entire cities was regarded as okay.  Now, if we look at sovereign states  at war we'd find. . . well, only one example.  North and South Korea are in a legal state of war, and have been since 1950, but in which they don't shoot at each other.Or consider crime.  In the US, in spite of a recent horror, murder, the worst crime, is way, way, way down.  This doesn't seem to make the news, but its' the case.  For folks with long memories, you should be able to recall a time a couple of decades ago in your own neighborhoods where your town was much more violent, because it was.  But most people don't have memories that really stretch back that far.

Part of the reason we moderns are so stressed is that we have unparalleled access to information. 

The news media has existed for a long time, and indeed since the introduction of the wire service early in the 20th Century the ability to get up to date news daily has been very much there.

But what only became the case recently is the screaming immediacy of all news.  Fires in Australia, Ebola in Africa, all the way down to major car wrecks in distant cities and crime in places that we don't live come screaming through to us all the time.

We aren't really built to take that and it contributes to the idea that everything is a disaster, when in fact in spite of the bad things we have to contend with being bad, things really aren't as bad as they once were.

So what to do about all of this?

Well, there's plenty of advice, and much of it just leads to more stress.

One of the most pronounced characteristics of the current age is to find problems that are rooted in fairly recent changes in our societal behavior, and then suggest that we need to do something new to address them, when in fact what we might need to do is the one thing that never occurs to us. . . go back.

There's a widespread western belief that you can't go back.  But you most definitely can, and history has shown that again and again.  And even if we won't go back to a prior era completely (and we wouldn't want to), we can revive and apply those things from nature and our natures that were proven to work as they were part of nature and our natures.

That means, however, giving up a lot of narcissism, which has come to nearly define western values.  We aren't the center of everything.  It also means giving up the idea that you can have it all or that you even should.  You can't, you won't, and you shouldn't.

Slow down and get out there.  Try the old things that worked before espousing the new ones, which often don't.  Things existed, including standards and ways of life, for a reason.



Every Man Should Have A Rifle


So I sit and write and ponder, while the house is deaf and dumb,
Seeing visions "over yonder" of the war I know must come. In the corner — not a vision — but a sign for coming days Stand a box of ammunition and a rifle in green baize. And in this, the living present, let the word go through the land, Every tradesman, clerk and peasant should have these two things at hand.

No — no ranting song is needed, and no meeting, flag or fuss — In the future, still unheeded, shall the spirit come to us! Without feathers, drum or riot on the day that is to be, We shall march down, very quiet, to our stations by the sea. While the bitter parties stifle every voice that warns of war, Every man should own a rifle and have cartridges in store!



Henry Lawson, 1907.

Lawson was an Australian poet.


Monday, January 6, 2020

An Iranian American Conflict was something. . . .

I didn't anticipate having as a category here, but I do now.

It shouldn't have come about this point.

Or at least so it seems.

Let's be clear about that, however.  Iran has been colliding violently with the entire globe since it became a Shia Islamic Republic in the 1970s.  It's a radical theocracy that's bent on spreading its branch of Islam by any means necessary.  It's subverted much of the current Iraqi government and it's sponsored anti government forces in Lebanon.  It's also propped up the government of Syria.  It maintains militias in Iraq. 

There's nothing about the current government of Iran that we can admire, and we also can't admire its lending of its guerrilla commanders, or volunteers, to forces outside of its border.  Indeed, in its behavior, we might compare to Fascist Italy in the 1930s, which propped up the fascist cause elsewhere and which lent volunteers to the civil war in Spain.

We've been contesting Iran's efforts now for forty years.

But over those forty years domestic support for the country's theocracy has waned and was disappearing.  We've managed to temporarily reverse that now almost over night.

In doing that, we've removed a single Revolutionary Guard commander, but that's not going to change the success rate of Iran's foreign adventures in any fashion.  On the weekend news shows the Administration's line was that "America's safer", but that seems rather far fetched.  Indeed, in taking out a single man we've violated, once again, the Clausewitzian maxim that if you hit a foreign power, you have to go all in.  We haven't done that, and there's no sign we will.  Indeed, at this point that would be an extraordinary action that Congress and the public would not support.

So a troubled Iranian government will see Iranians rally to it, and it will have to act in some fashion that will result in an increased loss of life.

Given this, at the present time, the Administration really should lay bare its reasons for taking this action.  If we see that Iran was planning something like 9/11 in some fashion, or something like the USS Cole, well, perhaps we can then understand why this seemed necessary.  Indeed, that would have effectively have been Iran taking the first step.  But in order to make this move wise strategically it would require something on that order.  If it isn't there, the public can judge if the use of force was wise or not.

It wouldn't be the first time that the public has made such calculations.  Indeed, far more American wars have been unpopular with the population than generally imagined, with the Mexican War perhaps being the most unpopular we've experienced to date. At any rate, it's not disloyal to want answers, and with wars they should be forthcoming.

Which is also not to say that this is going to become a full scale war.  Indeed, as noted, that's the Clausewitzian maxim we have violated.  Clausewitz warned that limited wars were wars by the weak and the risk they entail is extreme.  If we're in a war, it'll be a very low grade and long lasting one, not one that sees masses of men in the field. And its those low grade wars that we're the worst at fighting.

January 6, 1920. Peace Secured. Protestants Unite? Suffrage Advances.

The headline news for this day, January 6, 1920, was that a treaty was to be signed between the victorious Allies and the Germans.  Or, more properly, a protocol to the Versailles Treaty


More properly, this was an amendment to the Versailles Treaty altering and amending some of its terms.  Germany's reluctance to enter into a protocol had lead the Allies and Germany back to the brink of war several months earlier, an event now wholly forgotten, but in the end the amendment had been worked out.

The U.S. Senate had not ratified the original text and would still not be ratifying the treaty in its entirety.

The Casper paper was also reporting that a new Wyoming corporation had been formed to build or take over the manufacturing of the Curtis Aircraft line.  I've never heard of this before and Wikipedia sheds no light on what was going on with this story.  Does anyone know the details?


Also making headlines was an effort to unite the nation's Protestant churches into a single organization. The headlines are apparently a bit misleading as they would suggest that the individual denominations were set to be united, which was not the proposal.

Also misleading, today, is the use of the term "United Church of Christ". That denomination would not come about until 1957.

On the same day, Kentucky and Rhode Island passed the 19th Amendment.

Suffrage supporters watching the Governor of Kentucky sign his state's passage of the 19th Amendment.

And Walt experienced something that I routinely do a century later.


Blog Mirror: Amy Howe Blog. A look back at 2019: A tale of two terms?

A look back at 2019: A tale of two terms?

The chief justice’s 2019 year-end report: The federal judiciary and civic education

The chief justice’s 2019 year-end report: The federal judiciary and civic education

Scoutusblog: Decade in review: The court upholds Obamacare

Decade in review: The court upholds Obamacare

Sunday, January 5, 2020

Asymmetrical War and Gross Overreaction

Dear readers, it is important to note that Pearl Harbor has not been struck by the Japanese in a second sneak attack.

Eh?

Well, the reason I note that is that event was the last one which caused the United States to declare war on anyone. Sure, we've fought several undeclared conflicts since then, one, or two, of which were illegally fought in that they required, in my view, a declaration of war, but there's no risk of "World War III".

None the less, some in the Press are even kicking around World War III headlines, which provides evidence of why people who are deeply informed on any one topic tend to take the Press with a very high dose of salt.

At the same time, we'd note, basically historical ignorance combined with people's basic love of panic, and people do love a good panic, is contributing to the complete and utter nonsense that's circulating right now.

Okay, what's this about and what's really going on, to the extent we know.

Death from above.  Starting with the Obama Administration and continuing now onto the Trump Administration individual enemies of the US and those near them have found themselves alive one moment and in eternity the next through strikes conducted by Predator drones, such as this one in Iraq.  Last week Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani found himself in the situation of flying into Baghdad to consult with those he lead in the name of the spread of Shia Islam to being in the next world and finding out if the 7th Century founder of Islam was right. .  or wrong. . . or perhaps a now greatly misunderstood Gnostic preacher who wasn't sending a message as now understood.

Last week President Trump, without informing Congress, ordered a drone strike on Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani.  Soleimani, in an acting of stunning hubris, flew into a nation where Iran maintains client militias in the Iranian's government effort to subvert the Middle East for the purpose of spreading the Shia theocracy, even while its own people are leaving Islam in droves and declaring they've had enough of the Shia theocracy.

Indeed, were the Iranian government lead by men with flexible minds overall, they'd democratize the country immediately, which would give Shia fundamentalism a much better chance of retaining influence in Iran, assuming its not too late, than their current course.  The course they're on right now will result in the secularization of the nation through disgust, sooner or later, and an educated Iranian population is already well into the process of pondering Islam's contradictions and problems.

But that's not the course of action they're going to take. They're going to go down with the ship, and make it worse for themselves.

And part of that is sponsoring guerrilla war against all sorts of forces and states in the region, including subverting the Iraqi government  and sponsoring militias there.

Gen. Qasem Soleimani had been instrumental in it and he met a fate he basically deserved.  

He deserved it as he was an instrument in a struggle that depended at its core on Iran's opponents not behaving like Iran.  And just like the rude motorist who finds himself cutoff by a tow truck driver who has had enough, Iran is complaining about it.

Citing Gasoline Alley may seem odd here, but in essence, Iran is behaving like Doc.

Iran of course feels this way as its been allowed to.  Western powers have restrained themselves from taking on the theocracy since its first creation, no matter how difficult that nation has been, for a variety of reasons.  And there's real logic to that approach.  Sooner or later, Iran's going to collapse under its own oppressive weight and the problem will be solved.

None of which means that anyone must tolerate their violent misbehavior in the meantime.

Which also doesn't mean that killing a top general of their's is wise

Indeed, all of this is very problematic.  For one thing, it's extremely odd to be using killer drones over the downtown street of a country you theoretically are aiding.  Indeed, as we are the guest, and they are the host, we presumably would want permission to act in this fashion.

We didn't get that, and we wouldn't have received it either.  Iran has strong influence in the Iraqi government.

Additionally, flat out killing an Iranian general in this fashion, while technologically impressive and oddly honest in a way as well, isn't really strategically sound for a variety of reasons, first and foremost of which is that overall any one general's ability to influence the long term outcome of a struggle is always questionable.  

Even if he is key, however, doing it outright will cause the Iranian people to rally to their government, no matter how much they might otherwise detest it.  Deeply Orthodox Russian soldiers fought for the atheistic Soviet Union heroically, as Mother Russia had been attacked.  

Red Army soldier, likely a Soviet Pole, and a Catholic, during World War Two.

And while it may be a bad or disturbing example, German soldiers fought tooth and nail during the final months of World War Two against the advancing Soviets.  Viet Cong solders, increasingly youthful as the war went on, fought hard in the 1970s for a cause they only understood loosely at best simply because the other side was there, in their concept of another side.

The point is that this actually may serve to prolong the struggle with Iran.

Which is why, if it was necessary, most nation's would have gone about this differently.  In Baghdad nobody would have though much of a couple of RPG rockets slamming into a car followed by concluding bursts of AKM (AK47) fire.  It'd look like another Iraqi militia had done it.

Indeed, a colleague of mine who had once been a Navy SEAL told me that in his day, for sidearms they carried Browning Hi Powers. They were used by so many nations at that time that if one was dropped, you could never tell what military had been there.

This assumes, of course, that it was necessary to kill Soleimani, which is a big assumption.  It's difficult for me to see how that would have been true.  Of course, the New York Times is now declaring he was no big deal, but the Times, like Chuck Todd, has become so partisan its lost all objectivity.  Suffice it to say, however, taking us to a higher level of conflict with Iran right now really raises some questions.

One question it doesn't raise is whether or not we're going into "World War III".

There's actually some outright moronic speculation of this type.  On Twitter, for example, the Twitter Twits are causing this to trend today:

Politics · Trending
#Iranattack
Trending with: #IranUsa, #WWIIl

That's just silly.

But perhaps not as silly as this:

Due to the spread of misinformation, our website is experiencing high traffic volumes at this time. If you are attempting to register or verify registration, please check back later today as we are working to resolve this issue. We appreciate your patience.

Eh gads, any narcissistic fool who seriously is calling the Selective Service as they think there's going to be a resumption of conscription is truly a bed wetter.  Head out of the phone bucko, and read some real history.

There isn't even going to be a conventional war between Iran and the United States.  Iran would loose it and they know that.  All of which makes the public freaking out about this downright dumb.

Indeed, probably the most amusing freak out was that of Rose McGowan. She's an actress, and therefore is part of the vapid set, who posted a gif of an Iranian flag with a sunny and a smiling bear, or something, on it, with this text:

Deaar #Iran, The USA has disrespected your country, your flag, your people. 52% of us humbly apologize. We want peace with your nation. We are being held hostage by a terrorist regime. We do not know how to escape. Please do not kill us. #Soleimani

That's really stupid.

That it was stupid became pretty obvious really quickly and she began to back-peddle enduing up with this:

Ok, so I freaked out because we may have any impending war. Sometimes it’s okay to freak out on those in power. It’s our right. That is what so many Brave soldiers have fought for. That is democracy. I do not want any more American soldiers killed. That’s it.

Oh horse sh**.  This was an example of vapidness blowing up on the commentator.  There's a lot of it around right now.  And its just not very smart.

There's going to be no conventional war with Iran.  We aren't going to engage in one, and the Iranians aren't either.  Neither side, in fact, could easily do it, but it it occurred, it would be the end of the Iranian theocracy, and they likely know deep down that its winding down anyhow and they don't want to accelerate that.  At some foreseeable point in the near future the Shiite mullahs of Iran will have the same level of influence on Iran that the Church of Sweden has over that county's affairs. That's not to say none, in either case, but it won't be what it is now.

Speculation about the effectiveness of the Iranian military has been rampant for a really long time, but the best evidence is that it isn't.  The common citation to their effectiveness is the example of their war that Iraq fought with Iran from 1980 to 1988 in which both sides actually demonstrated a raving level of military incompetence.

Fighting to a draw with modern weapons and World War One technology isn't an example of military prowess.  At that time Iran had a western trained 1970s vintage military with 1970s vintage military equipment and Iraq had a Soviet trained 1970s vintage military with 1970s vintage military equipment.  Both side managed to forget their training nearly immediately and fought with their respective 1970s equipment as if it was 1917.  

Iran still has 1970s equipment but now are largely internally trained and, in a conventional war, would be even less competent than they were in the 1980s, much like the Iraqis were in the 1990s and 2000s. And they likely have no illusion about being able to fight anyone.

Iranian F-14s in the 1980s. The F-14 was a great plane, but old airplanes with no parts don't stay great and technology has moved on.

Indeed, they don't really try. The Iranians like asymmetrical, irregular war, and that's what we'll likely see.  But we will see that.

Which does bring us back around to a more tense situation.  Will Iran try to close the Persian Gulf and what will the Europeans do if they do (they depend on it being open more than we do)?  Will Iran ramp up terrorism?

Indeed, the latter appears to be a certainty, as Iran has already stated that its retaliation will be "against military sites". That's worrying, but what that suggest is that they'll engage in asymmetrical war at a calculated level.  Basically, like Arab nations did with Israel for decades.  Just enough violence to not really provoke a war terminating their state.

All of which means that this will go on, most likely, for years. . . depending upon our reaction, which is proving to be the difficult one right now.  And that's the weird situation that Iran finds itself in.  Like a habitual rude driver, they suddenly find themselves having angered somebody who appears to be irrational and are now in the "oh crap. . . did that tow truck driver cut me off and is he getting out of the cab with a beer and a gun. . . ?"  Nobody knows what any reaction from the United States will be right now.

Including Americans.

But it won't involve World War Three and it won't involve conscription.

It'll be more analogous to the the long Arab Israeli struggle, at least for the time being.  Which means that panicked might have to do a little studying.

The Oppressed and the Vapid

I don't know who Rose McGowan is.  A review of her bio puts her pretty much in the Mindless Left wing Entertainment Set whose views and claimed personal attributes are whatever is currently on the far left, which means today she advocates for an animal, is "non binary", etc.  If it was 1920, and not 2020, she'd advocate for deporting Socialist to revolutionary Russia and for Prohibition.  If it was 1930 she'd be a Communist and a wet.

It's progressive, you know, to be on the "right side of history", even though that often isn't where history actually goes.

Anyhow, she apparently made a statement (I think on Twitter) apologizing for the American strikes in Iraq against an Iranian backed militia, and, more recently, the noted Iranian general Soleimani, apologizing to Iran and saying something about people moving there.

That was stupid.

Most Iranians aren't all that keen on Iranian militias or the Iranian quasi theocratic government.  The Iranian quasi theocratic government, for that matter, would find every single thing Rose McGowan says abhorrent, and pretty much take the necessary steps to shut her up, and cause her to put more clothing on.  There is, we might note, no sanctioned "Me Too" movement in Iran.  An apology in this context is pretty much like apologizing to Nazi Germany for Nazi agitators in pre Anschluss Austria. A person would have to be a real dumb ass to do it.

Naturally, this proved predictable responses on Twitter. . .sort of.

The most interesting ones I saw, however, were from young women.

Young Lebanese women.

Young Christian Lebanese women.

Some writing in English, others in French, they really wanted McGowan to go to Iran and stay there. they were also pretty much advocating for any level of violence necessary to deal with Iran and its militias, and they knew just what that meant.  They were glad to see Soleimani dead.

It's interesting how the vapid set doesn't exist where backs are up against the wall.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Update:

We had an error in this thread.  McGowan didn't say anything about going to Iran, and she's since qualified and somewhat apologized for her earlier comments.  We noted that in another thread put up today, here:

Indeed, probably the most amusing freak out was that of Rose McGowan. She's an actress, and therefore is part of the vapid set, who posted a gif of an Iranian flag with a sunny and a smiling bear, or something, on it, with this text:

Deaar #Iran, The USA has disrespected your country, your flag, your people. 52% of us humbly apologize. We want peace with your nation. We are being held hostage by a terrorist regime. We do not know how to escape. Please do not kill us. #Soleimani

That's really stupid.

That it was stupid became pretty obvious really quickly and she began to back-peddle enduing up with this:

Ok, so I freaked out because we may have any impending war. Sometimes it’s okay to freak out on those in power. It’s our right. That is what so many Brave soldiers have fought for. That is democracy. I do not want any more American soldiers killed. That’s it.

Oh horse sh**.  This was an example of vapidness blowing up on the commentator.  There's a lot of it around right now.  And its just not very smart.

Having said that, McGowan's comments are stupid and really show why the American habit of listening to actors or actresses on anything is likewise stupid.

It also shows, I think, why the young Lebanese women I noted acted with rage.  The Lebanese have put up with around three decades of a dedicated Iranian backed effort to destroy the Lebanese democracy and replace it with a Shiite theocracy.  I'd be made in their situation too.

And again it shows a difference in prospective. A bunch of American's running around panicking about being drafted and the like doesn't mean much if you've been under some species of siege for thirty years.


January 5, 1920. The first Monday of the year. Ice, Raids, Long and Bobbed Hair, and Fighting the Reds

It was the first Monday of the New Year, and the New Decade, the date, being the first of a full work week, when the new year really begins, at least for adults.  

So how did it start off?

Joseph and Thomas Leiter skating on the basin, Joseph takes a fall.  Washington D. C., 1/5/20.

Washington D.C. was apparently having a cold snap, as the Tidal Basin was frozen and children were taking advantage of it for ice skating.

 Miss Betty Baker, daughter of the Secty. of War and Miss Annie Kittleson skating on the Tidal Basin, Washington D. C., 1/5/20.

Admiral Jellicoe was still making the rounds.

Admiral Jellicoe photographed in Secty. Daniels office at the Navy Dept.  1/5/20.

The Supreme Court upheld the Volstead Act thereby wiping out booze for good, or so it would seem, right down to the ultra light beer level.


At the same time, things were developing and heating up in Ireland, where separatists Republicans were fighting the British in their effort to form a separate republic.  A familiar map was beginning to take place there.

Closer to home the Palmer Raids were still being celebrated and a new effort was underway for a sedition act designed to take on home grown Reds, described by the Casper headline writer as "long haired men and short cropped women". That headline actually did catch a hair style trend in radical women, albeit on that was about to spread.  As described by Whitaker Chambers in Witness, radical women of the time bobbed their hair.  Soon, that style, perhaps boosted by the daring radicalism, would spread to the female population in general.

By 1924, bobbed hair would be a flapper thing.  In 1920, it was a Red thing.

Reds and their opponents were at it tooth and nail elsewhere.

In Poland the Battle of Daugavpils concluded with the Soviets retreating into Latvia and being taken into custody there. That was possible as Poland and Latvia, which had been fighting, had concluded an armistice in the struggle between them and had asked the Poles for help. The anti Red forces were approximately half Pole and half Latvian, and fought successfully under Polish command.

Mustered Polish armor in the form of French tanks at Daugavpils.

Sunday Morning Scene: Churches of the West: St. Ann's Catholic Church, Saratoga Wyoming

Churches of the West: St. Ann's Catholic Church, Saratoga Wyoming:

St. Ann's Catholic Church, Saratoga Wyoming


This is St. Ann's Catholic Church in Saratoga Wyoming.  It's obviously a relatively modern church, but I don't otherwise know anything about it.