Inflation. A needed primer.

Seeing as I see so many posts, some from people running for office on this, a reminder.

Inflation going down just means the rate of inflation, goes down.  Prices still rise, just more slowly.

The U.S. Government targets inflation to be at about 2%.  It's 2.4% right now, which is basically a return to the pre Covid rate of inflation.  It goes up a little and down a little.

Personally, I don't like it that the government targets inflation for a perpetual slight rate.  I think the ideal rate is 0%.  Economist dispute that, but I'm not an economist, except in the amature, and distributist, sense.

Some people, such as Jimmy Akin, blame the government for inflation itself, and to some extent that's warranted.  But the recent inflationary cycle reflects world events, a war in Europe's grain belt between to oil producing entities being a big part of that.  Ironically, recent drops in the rate of inflation have been partially caused by Iran being a menace.

Anyhow, politicians who keep suggesting that "prices will go down" if they are elected are either lying or economically ignorant.

Prices can go down, of course, and for a variety of reasons. Technological advances cause the price of some things to go down, although they cause the price of some durables to go up.  Political actions can impact the price of things, but it tends to only occur very moderately over a prolonged period of time, or due to something dramatic, like deregulation of a very heavily regulated industry, or like busting up a big monopoly.

When prices really go down, that's deflation.  Not a decrease in inflation.  Once again, a decrease of inflation means that prices still rise, just not as much over a given period of time.  Deflation means they actually drop.

Deflation is pretty rare in a healthy economy and when it occurs in a healthy economy, it tends to only be for a month or so.  A general prolonged deflation only occurs in a depression. 

Depressions cause deflations.  People are out of work, so they don't have money, so they don't buy things, so prices drop.

And there you have it.

Wednesday, October 11, 1944. To Have and Have Not.

A Hungarian delegation signed a ceasefire agreement in Moscow agreeing to abandon territory gained since 1937 and to declare war on Germany.  Hungary was enduring turmoil in its government over this general topic.

The obscure Tuvan People's Republic was absorbed by the Soviet Union.

The U.S. Army Air Force bombed Okinawa.

To Have and Have Not premiered.  It was Lauren Bacall's premier film.

Last edition:

Tuesday, October 10, 1944. The murder of the Romani children.

Labels: 1940s, 1944, Auschwitz, Austria (Vienna), Gypsies, Imperial Japanese Navy, Italian partisans, Italian Social Republic, Nazi Germany, Okinawa, The Holocaust, U.S. Navy

Today in World War II History—October 11, 1939 & 1944

Today in World War II History—October 11, 1939 & 1944: 80 Years Ago—Oct. 11, 1944: US First Army begins battle for Aachen, Germany. Movie premiere of To Have and Have Not, starring Humphrey Bogart and Lauren Bacall.

Saturday, October 11, 1924.

Last edition:

Friday, October 10, 1924. Senators take the series.

Labels: 1920s, 1924, 1924 World Series, baseball

Wednesday October 11, 1899. The Boer War Commences.

The Boer Republics' deadline having expired, the Boer War commenced with a formal declaration of war.

Last edition:

Tuesday, October 10, 1899. Isaac R. Johnson patented the modern bicycle frame.

Labels: 1890s, 1899, Bicycles, Ethnicities, technology, Transportation

Tuesday, October 11, 1774. A Resolution.

Congress passed a resolution that “a memorial be prepared for the people of British America, stating to them the necessity of a firm, united, and invariable observation of the measures recommended by the Congress, as they tender the invaluable rights and liberties derived to them from the laws and constitution of their country.”

Last edition:

Monday, October 10, 1774. The Battle of Point Pleasant

Labels: 1770s, 1774, Colonial North America, Lord Dunmore's War, Mingo people, Native Americans, Shawnee people, Virginia, West Virginia

Wednesday, October 11, 1724. Fort Drummer attacked.

Seventy Abenakis attacked Fort Dummer, Vermont and killed 3 or 4 miliamen.

Last edition:

Sunday October 8, 1724. A schism and a reunion.

Labels: 1720s, 1724, Catholic, Christianity, Eastern Rite Catholic, Greek Orthodox Church, Melkite Greek Catholic Church, Orthodox, religion, Syria

A Manly Pastime - A Baseball History Blog : A Hundred Years Later - Remembering One of Basebal...

A Manly Pastime - A Baseball History Blog : A Hundred Years Later - Remembering One of Basebal...: My first World Series experience was the 1956 Fall Classic when my beloved Brooklyn Dodgers fell to the hated New York Yankees in seven game...

Tuesday, October 10, 1944. The murder of the Romani children.

800 Romani children were murdered at Auschwitz.

Aircraft from the USS Bunker Hill sank six Japanese midget submarines at Okinawa, along with numerous other ships.

Austrian industrialist and officers asked Reichsstatthalter Baldur von Schirach to declare Vienna an open city.

Alba was temporarily liberated from the Italian Social Republic by communist and monarchist partisans.

Last edition:

Monday, October 9, 1944. The Fourth Moscow Conference Commences.

Labels: 1940s, 1944, 1944 World Series, Canadian Army, Diplomacy, Fourth Moscow Conference, French Troupes de Marine, Marcus Island, Netherlands, Pacific, Red Cross, U.S. Navy, World War Two

Today in World War II History—October 10, 1939 & 1944

Today in World War II History—October 10, 1939 & 1944: 80 Years Ago—Oct. 10, 1944: US Navy Task Force 38, with 17 aircraft carriers, strikes Okinawa, sinking 34 vessels and destroying 75 Japanese planes.

Friday, October 10, 1924. Senators take the series.

Big Train pitched four shutout innings as a relief pitcher in a game regarded as one of the greatest  in baseball history.

Voting became compulsory in Australia.

Last edition:

Thursday, October 9, 1924. Senators 2, Giants 1.

Labels: 1920s, 1924, 1924 World Series, baseball

Tuesday, October 10, 1899. Isaac R. Johnson patented the modern bicycle frame.

 

Johnson was an African American.

Last edition:

Monday, October 9, 1899. Boer ultimatum.

Labels: 1890s, 1899, Boer War, British Army, British Empire, Cape Colony, Mining, Orange Free State, South African Republic (Transvaal), United Kingdom, Witwatersrand Gold Rush

Monday, October 10, 1774. The Battle of Point Pleasant

The Battle of Point Pleasant (Battle of Kanawha, Battle of Great Kanawha) was fought between Virginian militia and Shawnee and Mingo warriors in what is now West Virginia.

It was the only major battle of Lord Dunmore's War.

Lord Dunmore, the Royal Governor of Virginia, prevailed and took his forces into the Ohio Valley.

The action effectively concluded the war in favor of Virginia and the Crown.

Last edition:

Friday, October 7, 1774. The Massachusetts Provincial Congress.

Labels: 1770s, 1774, American Revolution, Colonial North America, Massachusetts

Just two weeks ago Congress passed a bill that included funding for FEMA.

Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true!

Aesop. 

Contrary to news reports, it was not a FEMA funding bill, it was the stop gap bridge measure to keep the government open.

The hard right in Congress, including Wyoming's lone Congressman, voted against it.  Voting against such bills has been really popular in the populist street level politics of Wyoming.  And the hard right sees it as a way to force fiscal responsibility, as long as you don't want to be too cynical about it.  It'd also handicap the government if it didn't pass, of course, which some long for.

Rep. Hageman gave her reasons as follows:

Washington, DC – Today, Congresswoman Harriet Hageman voted in favor of H.R. 9494 - Continuing Appropriations and Other Matters Act, 2025 (CR) that would keep the federal government open through March 28, 2025 and include the SAVE Act. The SAVE Act, cosponsored by Rep. Hageman and passed earlier this year by the House of Representatives with bipartisan support, would require states to obtain proof of citizenship—in person—when registering an individual to vote and require states to remove non-citizens from existing voter rolls. The bill failed 220-202.

Representative Hageman stated, “Safeguarding our election process is critically important, especially with the open border policies of the Biden-Harris administration that have allowed over 11 million illegals to enter our country. By including the SAVE Act with government funding and extending the funding into 2025, when Republicans have a strong chance of controlling the House, Senate, and White House, America wins. We will be able to craft responsible appropriations bills that slash wasteful spending, stop the current administration’s radical climate agenda, and eliminate woke DEI programs from federal agencies – at the same time, we can ensure that only American citizens vote in federal elections.

“I am disappointed that the House was unable to pass H.R. 9494 today. While Continuing Resolutions are never ideal, securing our elections and creating an opportunity to pass conservative spending bills in 2025 created a unique opportunity. I will not support a CR that fails to include the SAVE Act.”

I'm sure her logic is likewise popular in the state, but I'd note that tying immigration to continuing spending is linking two unrelated things.  She voted against the bill that passed.

Anyhow, while this wasn't a FEMA spending bill, FEMA is part of the government and gets its money from the government, which would have closed if the CR hadn't passsed. . . .

FEMA is now addressing hurricane damage in the Southeast last week, and is about to deal with a second hurricane that looks to hit Florida with a fury not matched in a century.

Interestingly, the Trump campaign is now lying (imagine that) about disaster relief funds not making it to Appalachia.  Trump has, of course, inspired the far right and the "shut the government down" midset.

Well, what about us?

Here are the list of disasters that FEMA recognizes for this year in Wyoming:

Wyoming House Draw Fire (FM-5531-WY)

Incident Period: August 22, 2024 - and continuing

Fire Management Assistance Declaration declared on August 22, 2024

Wyoming Pleasant Valley Fire (FM-5523-WY)

Incident Period: July 30, 2024 - and continuing

Fire Management Assistance Declaration declared on July 30, 2024

Wyoming Happy Jack Fire (FM-5490-WY)

Incident Period: March 1, 2024 - and continuing

Fire Management Assistance Declaration declared on March 1, 2024

 And quite frankly, there are going to be more to come.

The Elk Fire near Dayton and Sheridan is now up to 75,000 and is only 10% contained as of this morning.  A forest fire broke out in this county yesterday afternoon.*

These fires aren't stopping until it snows, and daily temperatures are freakishly high for October.

Let's discuss subsidiarity.

Subsidiarity on this site is defined in the Catholic sense.  It is an organizing principle that things (problems, matters, politics, economics) ought to be handled by the smallest, lowest or least centralized competent authority.

Least centralized competent authority, not the least centralized authority.

The most centralized competent authority can indeed be the Federal government for large disasters, particularly multistate disasters, and ones which require large sums of money that cannot be locally obtained.

That latter is particularly the case for Wyoming.

We can't afford these disasters on our own. We can't afford to fight them.  We can't address what they destroy.

Wyomingites are on social media right now complaining that the country is ignoring us.  Well, attention works two ways.

This upcoming 2025 Legislature is likely to see the House controlled by the "Wyoming" Freedom Caucus.  The "Wyoming" Freedom Caucus basically wants to give the Federal Government the middle finger salute.  But nobody in the state wants to tell Washington "no thanks, you keep your FEMA, Highway, FAA money, we'll do it on our own".  

There's a word for lashing out when you don't get what you want, and see yourself as the center of things.

A tantrum, angry outburst, temper tantrum, lash out, meltdown, fit, or hissy fit is an emotional outburst, usually associated with those in emotional distress. It is typically characterized by stubbornness, crying, screaming, violence, defiance, angry ranting, a resistance to attempts at pacification, and, in some cases, hitting and other physically violent behavior. Physical control may be lost; the person may be unable to remain still; and even if the "goal" of the person is met, they may not be calmed. Throwing a temper tantrum can lead to a child getting detention or being suspended from school for older school age children, and can result in a timeout or grounding, complete with room or corner time, at home. A tantrum may be expressed in a tirade: a protracted, angry speech.

Wikipedia. 

“Be careful what you wish for, lest it come true!”, Aesop counseled, and for a reason.  And Sappho counseled "don't bite the hand that feeds you".

And, of course:

Pride goes before disaster, and a haughty spirit before a fall.

Proverbs 16:18.

We've been pretty proud here recently. 

Footnotes:

*A message from the Game and Fish:

Sheridan – The Wyoming Game and Fish Department advises hunters that the Elk Fire in Sheridan County continues to grow, impacting wildlife habitat and access to certain hunt areas.

 

Hunt areas impacted by the fire or associated public access closures are currently located within Elk Hunt Areas 37 and 38 and Deer Hunt Areas 24 and 25. This is an active fire situation and these areas may change. Game and Fish is maintaining a fire information page for hunters and updating it regularly.

 

As of Oct. 5, 2024, the following Access Yes areas have been closed until further notice:

 

• PK Lane Hunter Management Area. 

• Sheridan County Walk in Areas #8 and #12. 

   

Game and Fish personnel are assisting public safety officials and fire suppression efforts as requested.

 

Personnel will assess impacts to Commission-owned properties and wildlife habitat when it is safe to do so.

 

Members of the public should be extra vigilant in watching for wildlife on roadways to avoid collisions, as animals may relocate to new areas where they usually aren’t expected.

 

Wildlife are generally adept at moving away from wildfires and the department has not received reports of injured animals at this time. Members of the public who see an injured animal can report the location to the Stop Poaching Hotline at 1-877-WGFD-TIP. The hotline operates 24 hours a day and reports are sent to the nearest wildlife manager to respond.  

 

Hunters should consult the Bighorn National Forest website and Facebook page for the most current information on fire conditions and public access closures. 

 

Other resources for information about the fire, current road closures and other impacts include the Sheridan County Emergency Management Department and Wyoming Department of Transportation.

 

Hunters can call the Sheridan Regional Office at 307-672-7418 for more information.

Monday, October 9, 1944. The Fourth Moscow Conference Commences.

The Fourth Moscow Conference began, with Churchill, Stalin (of course), and W. Averell Harriman in attendance.  The Allies, knowing that victory was coming, discussed post war Europe.

Polish delegates attended some of the meetings.

As odd as it may seem, to many in Germany, the coming defeat was not yet a mental reality.  There's a lesson in there about believing what you want to believe, in spite of the evidence.

The St. Louis Cardinals took the 1944 World Series in the sixth game.

Infantrymen take break in fighting to enjoy coffee and doughnuts offered by Red Cross girls of Clubmobile "General Lee" somewhere in Luxembourg. 9 October, 1944.

The Canadian 3d Division landed at Breskens on the south bank of the Scheldt.

A U.S. task force bombarded Marcus Island.

 French Naval Minister Jacquinot, accompanied by ranking French naval officers, inspects a tank destroyer unit of the 2nd Free French Armored Division, manned by French marines, somewhere in France. 9 October, 1944.

Last edition:

Sunday, October 8, 1944 Passing of Fr. Nicolò Cortese and Wendell Willkie

Labels: 1940s, 1944, Aegean Sea, Battle of Crucifix Hill, boats and ships, Estonia, Finland, German Wehrmacht, Germany, Greece, Heroes, Lapland War, Nijmegen Netherlands, U.S. Navy, Wendell Wilkie, World War Two

Today in World War II History—October 9, 1939 & 1944

Today in World War II History—October 9, 1939 & 1944: 80 Years Ago—Oct. 9, 1944: World Series concludes, with the St. Louis Cardinals defeating the St. Louis Browns; one-armed player Pete Gray plays for the Browns.

Thursday, October 9, 1924. Senators 2, Giants 1.

 

Calvin Coolidge and Kennesaw Mountain Landis.

Last edition:

Wednesday, October 8, 1924. Senators tie the Series.

Labels: 1920s, 1924, 1924 World Series, Railroads

Monday, October 9, 1899. Boer ultimatum.

The South African Republic (Transvaal) andthe Orange Free State issued an ultimatum to the United Kingdom declaring that a state of war would exist if the British did not remove their troops from their respective borders.

Alexander Merensky, “Original map of the Transvaal or South-African Republic,” HIST 1952, accessed October 9, 2024, https://hist1952.omeka.fas.harvard.edu/items/show/179.

With war approaching, the first first British troops reached Durban, South Africa.  The theoretical cause of the war was the Boer treatment of the foreign gold miners in the the Witwatersrand Gold Rush, most specifically the deprivation of the franchise.

Last edition:

Sunday, October 8, 1899. Marines take Noveleta, Luzon.

Labels: 1890s, 1899, It was because of World War One, Luzon, Philippine Insurrection, Philippines, United States Marine Corps

Tuesday, October 29, 1524. Luther's ongoing seperation.

Martin Luther quit wearing his Augustinian habit symbolically breaking his ties with the monastic order of which he had been a part.

He had been excommunicated from the Church three years prior.

Last edition:

Tuesday, September 23, 1524. The Bundesbrief

Labels: 1520s, 1524, Government, Switzerland