Showing posts with label Saudi Arabia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saudi Arabia. Show all posts

Tuesday, January 30, 2018

The King has fallen? The end of Saudi Arabian dominance in petroleum?

Yesterday we reported on this:
Lex Anteinternet: Petroleum. Happy Days Are Here Again?: Is it back? "Oil, that is. . . black gold. . . Texas Tea. .  " Well maybe.  It's sort of looking that way. Oil is ho...
Also, yesterday, the New York Times reported:
HOUSTON — A substantial rise in oil prices in recent months has led to a resurgence in American oil production, enabling the country to challenge the dominance of Saudi Arabia and dampen price pressures at the pump.
The success has come in the face of efforts by Saudi Arabia and its oil allies to undercut the shale drilling spree in the United States. Those strategies backfired and ultimately ended up benefiting the oil industry.
That would be, quite frankly, a huge American victory and a major defeat for the Petroleum Kingdom if its correct.

And it very well may be.

All throughout the price collapse of a couple of years ago was a thesis, but not the only one, that the drop in price was an effort by Saudi Arabia to crush the American petroleum industry, resurgent on technological advancements and increased prices.  If the NYT is correct, and it very well may be, this is a huge development. The potential end of OPEC dominance in oil, and a new, middle price, regime in the petroleum industry with the United States and Canada as major petroleum oil powers.


Friday, September 16, 2016

9/11 Fifteen Years On, How Are We Doing?

As is well known, on September 11, 2001, the United States endured an attack by Al Qaeda, an organization that was dedicated to the Wannabe sect of Sunni Islam, and which dreamt of the restoration of an Islamic Caliphate, someday.

Since that date, the United States has been continually at war, to some degree. Sometimes more, sometimes less, but never not.  Iraq was invaded by the US in what may perhaps be regarded as an undeclared war, even though there was no clear connection, and indeed no connection, between the Wannabe jihadist and the secular Baathist Iraqi state that we defeated.  U.S. forces entered government-less Afghanistan and drove out the Taliban, the Islamic Punjabi Sunni movement allied to Al Qaeda, which is and was principally Arabic.  The war in Afghanistan continues on with the Taliban struggling to remain and return, fighting against an Afghan government we support.  In Iraq, the defeat of Saddam Hussein's Baathist dictatorship resulted in a civil war between Al Qaeda allies who evolved into ISIL or ISIS, depending upon which term you prefer.  Initially defeated that group regrouped and came back in such force that it occupied large sections of Iraq and neighboring Syria and changed Al Qaeda's goal of an eventually restoration of a Sunni Caliphate to an immediate restoration of one, one which indeed it declared to be in present existence.

War is never predictable, and it was not a war that we wanted or started. But a war none the less. So the question remains?  How have we done, and how are we doing?

Prologue:  How did we even get here?

Before we look at the question, at some point it's worth asking how we got here in the first place.

I'd note, on that, that often during war it's not healthy, nor necessary, to really ask that question. Was it necessary on December 7, 1941, to ask how it was that the Japanese Imperial Navy had launched an air raid on Pearl Harbor?  I think not.  The moral imperative at that time was to address Japanese aggression, not debate  the  history of the Japanese since Admiral Perry.  This question, however, might be necessary to answer now, given that he war has lasted so long, and it's been unique in some ways.

 
Indeed, this was the moral imperative at the time.  Folks wanting to debate and discuss the history of Japan since the US opened it up would have been well off the mark at hte time.

And I use the term "the war" advisably.  Others might not, and some of them advisable as well.  And that gets, I suppose, to part of the point here. We're in a war with a certain world outlook, and we were before September 11, 2001.  We had been at war with it probably since some point in the 1990s perhaps, or at least for a year with the attack on the USS Cole in October 1990. Be that as it may, perhaps we were not incorrect in not realizing that, and indeed for those who would argue that viewing this as other as a war is a better option are not without their point.

To really look at the roots of this we need to go way back, and indeed we should do that if we are to understand the nature of the enemy that attacked us.

Americans in particular, and Westerners in general, have a hard time with conceptualizing the war we are in, and its probable length (Europeans less so) as our world outlook is so different from other cultures, which is to say that the European and European American outlook is distinctly Christian. Even non Christian's in the West have a Christian outlook on the world, and it's fair to say that their outlook is both Catholic and catholic in a larger sense.  That's due to our history and the remaining impact of it, even though we dimly perceive that.

As a result of that our culture emphasizes the concept of all men being equal in nature, free will, and indeed as an aspect of that, free choice. Additionally, the Hellenic nature of early Christianity (most, maybe all, of the early Gospels were written in Greek, contrary to what some commonly believe,  and the version of the Jewish writings commonly cited by the New Testament, which we call the "Old Testament", was the Septuagint, a Greek translation of those texts.) caused much of the Hellenic world view to be incorporated into Christianity.  At least some Christian theorists have maintained that this was far from accidental, but rather Providential, in that Christ's appearance in the Middle East came at the point at which Greek thought and the Greek language was common in the region.

Other cultures and non Christian religions, however, do not have this wort of world outlook and Islam does not.  This reflects its early history.  Indeed, early in its post Muhammad history there was a struggle between a Hellenized branch of Islam and the rest of it, with the Hellenized branch loosing.  When people cite to early Muslim theologians who take a world outlook similar to our own they often fail to note that those who held that view fell more than a little out of favor, and aren't looked upon by Muslims today as influential.

Now, the early history that I'll give here is certainly not one that a Muslim is likely to give, but it's the one that's most likely correct, and it is the source of the problems that Islam has in its relationship to the modern world today.

Much of the really early history if Islam is poorly known.  Unlike Christianity, which spread enormously rapidly and which had foundational writings nearly immediately after Christ's Crucifixion, Islamic texts, including the version of the Koran now used, seem to have had about a three century or so gap before their appearance following Muhammad's death. For that reason, there's a lot we don't know about Muhammad or early Islam, unlike Christianity which has an early history that's extremely well documented (although many Christians are wholly ignorant of it).  Even Muhammad's real name is a mystery, as the world "Muhammad" is almost certainly a title, not a name.  The first depiction of him, coming on a coin, shows a figure with a miter and a cross, and that provides quite a clue as to who he likely really was.

Young Muhammad encountering a Christian monk in his youth.  In Islamic tradition the monk predicted his mission as a prophet, but what's more likely is that this demonstrates an exposure by the illiterate Muhammad to Christian theology very early on.  Christianity itself took no note of Islam until well after Muhammad's death at which time it was noted simply as another Middle Easter heresy, which it no doubt was.

At the time of its first appearance Islam was treated as a Christian heresy, as that's almost certainly what it actually was.  Muhammad, who was illiterate, was married to a Christian woman before he started his proselytiziation.  She had an uncle who was a Gnostic priest.  Chances are very high that Muhammad was a Gnostic through these influences.

Depiction of Khadīja bint Khuwaylid, Muhammad's first wife, who died in 619.  Twelve more wives would follow.  She was a  Christian and in Islamic tradition converted to her husband's new faith. But what was that faith?  Chances are high that an infant Islam was more Christian than the religion that exists today, but probably in a Gnostic from.  Indeed, its easy to see how the illiterate Muhammad could have taken the basic Gnostic message and added a few elements to come out with a heretical evolution of Gnostism, which itself was a heresy.


Indeed, he may have never ceased being one, as we know little about what he actually did from direct contemporary sources. But assuming that this is not the case, what he seems to have been is an example of a Christian preacher who was poorly educated and who began to reinterpret his religion heavily, or began to excuse personal vices as allowed behavior. This is not an atypical story.  In Muhammad's case, moreover, the gap between his actions and the writings concerning them is sufficiently long so that his teachings, whatever they were, may have evolved in the meantime, perhaps considerably.  We could think of him, in this sense, of being somewhat like Rasputin, whom people often imagine to have been a Russian Orthodox monk, but who in fact was not ordained and was simply a layman with a self declared religious mission.

Muhammad, veiled, advances on Mecca.  The residents of Mecca, a town with was home to a wide variety of religions, were not keen on Muhammad when they first encountered him.

This combined would explain why some aspects of Islam closely mirror Christian teachings, including some that closely mirror Gnostic beliefs in circulation at the time, while some radically depart from them.  It would also explain why so much of Islam it self seems self contradictory in some aspects.  Islam both praises peace and advocates war, but in the context of Muhammad's own experiences this makes sense.  Proselytizing, at first unsuccessfully, in the Arabian Peninsula and suffering as a result, when he returns with followers they were armed and charged was a holy mission. Finding themselves far from home and their wives, he found that the taking of female slaves was just fine.  Finding himself personally attracted to multiple women, rather than carry the cross of the attraction, he found it sanctioned.  Finding women in general problematic, he placed most of them in Hell in the afterlife.  Finding lust a personal cross in his lifetime, he found that it would be perpetually satisfied in the afterlife.  Had he not encountered difficulties of the type he did, and had he not gone into the Arabian peninsula, probably originally simply as a Gnostic lay minister, he probably would have simply been a nameless forgotten Gnostic, and to some extent he actually may be.  The beliefs now attributed to him may, in fact, not have been so fully, and some would say not at all.

At any rate, that early history does indeed charge Islam with license to act violently in its name, and to dominate over everything where it exists.  It expanded by the sword.

But it hasn't always acted fully in that way, and it doesn't act fully in that way everywhere now.

It did early on, as it spread.  Distinctly different from Christianity, it spread by the sword and nearly exclusively by that means.  Where it came to conquer it frequently didn't succeed in converting for centuries.  Christian communities in remote North Africa held out for nearly a millennia after it came to politically dominate t here.  It spread by violent means all the way until the armed progress of Islam was arrested at Vienna in 1529, by which time the Protestant Reformation had already commenced.  Had the Ottoman's not been turned at Vienna, Europe would now be Islamic without question.  Further to the West, however, Islam had already been turned back, starting much earlier with the Battle of Tours and, in 1492, by the final reconquest of the last remaining Islamic principality in Spain.

It's worth recalling, which is rarely done now, that by and large Islamic occupation of Christian lands was never pleasant for Christians. While its frequently noted that Muhammad called these people the "People of the Book", in apparently reference to the Old Testament, they were definitely not equals, merely tolerated. Subject to punitive taxation and less than third class citizens, they endured for centuries, but never in pleasant circumstances.  In a few locations, notably Iraq, Turkey Syria, Iran, Lebanon, Palestine and Egypt, they endured into current times, sometimes doing well, and other times not so much.

But Islam quit expanding in 1529.  And Europeans started expanding their world in the 1600s.  And a much different sort of situation took place.

From the 1600s through the mid 20th Century Europeans came to dominate an increasingly large expanse of the globe, including many Muslim nations.  Europeans never reconquered (which is what it would have been) Turkey the seat of the Ottoman Empire, but they came to essentially occupy or influence much of the rest of the Islamic world save for the Arabian Peninsula itself, which they did not attempt to take in any fashion.  And in Turkey, the forces of secularism itself came to displace Islam up until very recently.

This provides an interesting counter story.  From the 1600s Islam was in retreat, but not in the face of Christian expansion, but in the face of European economic expansion. European colonialism was not religiously motivated, but motivated by financial interests.  While Christian missionaries typically followed in the wake of European colonialism, they were never the motivation for it, and indeed in the case of the French, they actually reflected a bit of a counter culture to the dominant secularism of the French republics.  This is hugely significant to our story as while Christian missionaries were enormously successful in most places that Europeans conquered, in North Africa and the Middle East they met with little success, which is further interesting when its recalled that in much of this region a a remnant of Catholic or Orthodox Christianity remained, as well as a remnant of Oriental Judaism.  Indeed, that may be why it did not succeed, as it was not the case that anything new was really being introduced and lines had hardened long ago.

Beyond that, however, while the opposite is commonly assumed by snotty moderns, by and large in the 19th and 20th Centuries European colonial powers not only did not sponsor missionary activity they didn't accord any advantage to those who converted, and that also likely played a role in what occurred, as we will see.  In the case of hte English, moreover, that was always true.  The United Kingdom itself was distinctly anti Catholic in its early colonial period, but at least as of point at which it acquired Quebec it never acted on that.  Indeed, it was remarkably tolerant of every Faith in the regions in which it ruled.  18th Century France and Spain did combine a missionary aim with their colonial enterprises but they'd stopped doing that by the 19th Century and, after the French Revolution, French missionaries, while they were taking advantage of the French presence, were often out of sync with their own governments.  Everywhere the Europeans ruled missionaries had the ability to go, and the advantage of legal protection, but by and large they had very little, if any, state assistance.  And converts were not given an advantage in local administration.

European missionaries were often spectacularly successful in this era in many places, but what's notable about that is that the conversions were highly genuine, which likely explains why in many places today the Christian churches are highly vibrant.  Unlike conversions under the Caliphates to Islam, there wasn't an advantage to be gained by converting, however, during the period of high European colonialism of the 19th and 20th Centuries.  In the Middle East, the British and the French had the policy of being tolerant towards all the native religions and protecting them, and affording all of them roughly equal opportunities in colonial administration, keeping in mind that in many instances these roles were definitely inferior to those afforded to Europeans. Given that, the opportunities and the prejudices were pretty much equally doled out on an ethnic, but not a religious, line.  So in a place like the Middle East, which had a very long existing Christian and Jewish minority, there wasn't a big reason for Muslims to convert other than religious ones. That's to the European's credit, but it forms part of the background to the complicated story.

What did take root, however, was European political thought, but oddly, that part that took was the highly radicalized variation.  As the local populations developed politically and began to have nationalist yearnings they tended to gravitate towards European political extremes, which welcomed them.  That this occurred is highly understandable as the European mainstream was large tolerant of, or supportive of, colonialism.  So, in looking to break the chains with their colonial masters, they tended to integrate with the extreme forces at work.  Communism, socialism and fascism all found their expressions in Middle Eastern nationalist movements.  Very significantly for us today, all of these forces were very secular and in fact many of them were quite hostile to Islam, which they saw as a force that would hold their populations back from reaching the political state they sought. So, when revolutionary movements broke out in the Middle East in the 30s through the 60s, they were not Islamist as a rule.

Which doesn't mean traditional Islam went away.  Rather, when oppressed by authoritarian forces, it went underground.  Always part of the culture, it did not go away so much as it became a subversive force.  It did so in Egypt, Iran, Algeria and Syria.  While westernized, which is to say secular but authoritarian governments, sought to  create new, Europeanized, Middle Eastern countries, they suppressed and repressed any other force, including the hard edge of Islam.

During the Cold War this did not perhaps matter much.  With the entire world seemingly at play, secular forces in the Middle East benefited from Superpower sponsorship that allowed them to seem both permanent and dominant.  The alignments themselves were more than a bit bizarre, however, as Middle Eastern politically totalitarian regimes tended to receive Soviet support, while traditional authoritarian, and what few democratic regimes there were, received Western support.  So, governments such as Nasser's in Egypt or the Baath regime in Syria tended to be backed by the Soviets, even though their ideology could not be described as communistic.  Regimes like that of the Saudis (which the British actually plotted to depose in the 1950s) received Western support even though they were no more democratic than that of the Baathist. 

Gamal Abdel Nasser Hussein, leader of Egpyt in the 1950s and 1960s.  Personally an observant Muslim, his government wasn't a theocracy

This continued through the 1960s but by the 1970s it began to break down as alignments began to change. At the same time, suppressed Islamic forces began to emerge demonstrating the age old situation that minority movements tend to gain support where suppressed, but in a malignant form.  In the 1970s they became strong enough to topple the Western backed government in Iran and they began to challenge the military dictatorship in Egypt and the Baath regime in Syria.  The success of the Iranian revolution, in and of itself, greatly boosted Islamist movements everywhere in the Middle East.

 Leaders of Algeria's FLN, the movement that successfully expelled the French from Algeria. Every one was no doubt at least nominally a Muslim, but it wasn't that which motivated them but rather Algerian nationalism.

By the 1980s there were very serious, and seriously radical, Islamist movements throughout the Middle East all of which looked towards a highly traditional interpretation of the religion.  By that time they'd taken a run at the government in Syria, assassinated Anwar Sadat in Egypt, and threatened the governments in Algeria and Tunisia.  And they'd made the sectarian strife in Lebanon an added nightmare. All of this was regarded as serious in nature, but as a regional problem.  They were regarded more, for example, as a threat to Israel and oil exportation than as an outright threat to the United States itself.  Elsewhere, the civil war in Afghanistan that had broken out over the communist government's alignment with the USSR, which in turn had resulted in a Soviet invasion that would fail, left that country with a provisional government ruled as a radical Islamic theocracy.  That development destabilized democracy in neighboring Pakistan, which had showed promise in that direction up until then.

Then came the First Gulf War.

The First Gulf War and the changing of the game.

An odd feature of wars is that looking back they appear inevitable, but really only because they actually occurred.  Looking at them in context, it's frankly amazing that some of them actually happened.  The Vietnam War, for example, strikes me particularly that way.  An American war in a region of the globe we had no traditional interest in.  Pretty unlikely.  But it happened none the less.

So too with the First Gulf War.

 U.S. armor during the First Gulf War.

That war was about oil, that's easy to say, but not in the greedy sense we so often like to imagine. The dynamics of it were simple.  Saddam Hussein lead his country into an invasion of neighboring Kuwait.  It wasn't the first time Iraq had tried that.  It was a pure territorial land grab.  It's clear that the Western powers couldn't allow that to occur.  Iraq was a fascistic state and unstable.  Kuwait was a stable monarchy aligned with  the West.  Iraq would be pushed out, and it was.

The problem rapidly became what to do with Iraq, and the George Bush I administration decided to basically leave it in place, but restrained.  I have been critical of this in the past, but that was probably the correct call.  It was fascistic, but it was not Islamist, and it was a buffer state for the Middle East against Islamist Iran, which detested it, and which it detested.  Liberal revolutionary movements attempted to overthrow the Baath government as it started to loose the war, but we did not support them.  In retrospect, that was likely the correct course.

In order to take Kuwait back it was necessary to stage our forces, and those of the other western allies, in Saudi Arabia.  Even though the Saudis were threatened they understood the difficulties that this placed them in.  Much less stable than they would appear, the Saudi monarchy is one of the most repressive regimes on earth.   A Wannabe monarchy, in effect, like Franco's Spain it has not been afraid to suppress even the forces that support it and which brought it to power, on its own soil. Repression of real political movements and other religions other than the Sunni branch of Islam (and there are other religions that are there, and have long been) is extreme.  The Saudis feared what having Western soldiers on their soil would mean.

But they had to allow it, and it occurred.

It might be noted here that there should be a real question as to whether the American lead effort in the Gulf War, which I think was necessary, was legal.  Iraq's invasion of Kuwait was an act of war.  Our participation in the retaking of Kuwait was also a war.  No Declaration of War was made.  As this was more than a local police action, and this wasn't in the nature of our supporting an established government, such as the Vietnam War, so a Declaration of War appears, at least to me, to have been legally necessary.

Be that as it may, we quickly won that war but some US forces remained in Saudi Arabia.  And in that country, amongst hard core Islamic adherents, in a land where Wannabeism had long been sponsored, it sparked outrage.  Women in uniform, even restrained Western behavior, Christians on Saudi soil, it was all more than they could tolerate.

This gave rise to the Al Qaeda war on the United States.

Caliphatist war on the West

Al Qaeda arose in the Arabian Peninsula as a movement that really did not vary greatly from Wannabeism.  It was an extreme form of Sunnism, and indeed it likely would have been regarded as heretical had Saudi Arabia not long sponsored Wannabeism.  The difference, perhaps, between the officially extreme version of Sunni Islam and Islam as viewed by Al Qaeda is that Al Qaeda looked to the reestablishment of the Caliphate and the utlimate creation of a global Sunni monarchy.  Not immediately, as even it, as illusionary as its goal clearly is, recognized that it could not bring that about overnight.


 The black flag of the Wahhabi combatants that brought the House of Saud to power.  The Islamic State has its own black flag.
 
 The green flag of Saudi Arabia.

As an extremist movement at war with the West, it could have no home in Saudi Arabia, and soon it became repressed there, but not before it had already struck at the U.S. Navy in the form of the attack on the USS Cole.  From then on it, and closely aligned movements, would strike at the US whenever they could. The September 11, 2001 attack on the United States was when we really took notice of it, however.

 Damage from the October 12, 2000 attack on the USS Cole.  It's interesting to note that we widely remember September 11, 2001, for obvious reasons, but the opening shot had been fired on October 12 of the prior year.

By that time it had entrenched itself in Afghanistan for the simple reason that it was welcome there.  That was already well known to us, and therefore the war in Afghanistan would become an inevitability after the September 11, 2001 attacks.  It had to be.  Afghanistan was effectively a country without a government that harbored a vile terrorist organization.

The second war against Iraq, however, didn't have to be.  Indeed, again in retrospect, it didn't make sense and it was a mistake.  Highly secular Baathist Iraq had no love for Al Qaeda and Al Qaeda despised it, claiming that the Baathist were "Communist". 

Again, as an aside, the second war against Iraq was clearly an illegal war given that it was an invasion of that country and it required a Declaration of War that was never asked for.  The war in Afghanistan, however, was different.  Lacking a legal government of any kind, the lawless nation could not really be regarded as at war, so much as in anarchy, and our role there, while certainly a war in terms of what it entailed, was not legally one.

So where are we at?

Following September 11 we were a united country. So much so that the country supported an invasion of Iraq in spite of there being no real reason at the time to do it.  In our minds, the war there blended with the one in Afghanistan.  It was all one effort.


We removed the Taliban from control of Afghanistan and crushed Al Qaeda there.  But we must admit that the country remains very unstable and the Taliban has managed to somewhat regroup and remains a threat.  So, after fifteen years, we really haven't completed that job and we speak fairly routinely about simply leaving the country.  Typical American short attention span has kicked in, apparently. Forgetting what Afghanistan can be, we choose to pretend the country is ungovernable, rather than press for the end of the job.  That the country can be stabilized should not be doubted, as it has been a stable country in periods of its past.  The question is whether we choose to complete the job or not.  Right now, in spite of commemorating fifteen years past, its doubtful that we will.

Our war in Iraq massively destabilized Mesopotamia and our bungling of that has in turn brought about a disaster.  As the Baath regime collapsed Al Qaeda moved in and a new war commenced.  That religious war was successfully concluded by making alliances with Sunni chieftains, but not before Al Qaeda in Iraq had evolved into the Islamic State in Iraq and the Levant, a new strain of the same movement which determined to bring about t he Caliphate right now, thereby taking the delusion into the presence.  Biding its time, it struck after we prematurely pulled out of an Iraq whose civil government fully aligned itself with the Shiia's of Iran and thereby made itself massively unpopular with the Sunnis.  Taking advantage of destabilization in Syria, and the isolation of that regime, it rose up with success there by taking advantage of an existing rebellion and then spread it self into Iraq, where it remains.  The tide does seem to be turning against it, but it has a lot of fight left in it yet.

The problem is, however, that ISIL, while declaring the Caliphate in existence right now, has changed Al Qaeda's "strike at the west" strategy to a new one, which basically amounts to strike everywhere, with everybody.  It has appealed ti Muslims in the Middle East, Central Asia, and the West with an amazing degree of success, and its organization is so loose that it can effectively take credit for barbarities that stretch from Iraq to Florida.  We are so stunned by this that we can hardly effectively recognize that its a fact, preferring to rationalize and excuse the attacks that come closest to us.

An Existential War

We're so accustomed to thinking of war in territorial terms, and ultimately all war is about territory, that we have not been able to really grasp that the current war is for all the territory, everywhere.  Indeed, in real terms this war shares that feature with the long struggle with Communism.  We face an enemy that conceives of itself having a global mission.  Unlike the Communist, however, it also conceives of that struggle in a sort of eternal terms that can withstand the loss of territory, which the Communist never did, fearing that territory lost was lost for ever.

To use the terms so often applied to the Vietnam War, this is somewhat of a war for "hearts and minds".  We and our enemy conceive of it in that fashion, but they further conceive of it as a war against Devine Good and evil. We may talk of good and evil in this war, but our leaders have a very immediate and sometimes washed out concept of that means.  Our enemies don't.  They are charged with a world outlook that's definiative and vast.  It appeals to people who look for meaning in their lives.  In order to defeat them, if we are to, we have to have a cogent world view as well.

But do we?

Earlier on this blog I've argued that we do not, and I'll argue it here again.

I'll also note that this was not always the case for us.

Here's one of the places I recently noted the nature of our struggle, although it is not the only one:
We're in a war, whether we like it or not, with a variant of Islam that retains a very, very primitive view of the world and men and women's role in it.  Hardly any of us would agree with the social aspects of our opponents movement, but in opposing it, we actually have to have a point.
We don't have much of one.

Which is why I will say, form time to time, that we could lose the war.

We could, truly, simply because we're fighting for. . . well what is it? The right to wear pants that are too tight? The right for men to self identify as gerbils? What was it?

Okay, I know what our core values are, and so do you, but how often does anyone actually think on those core values and where they come from?  Not very often.  But our opponents do.

Indeed, endowed with a strong sense of right, wrong, and the order of the world, even if we don't agree with it, our opponents have been remarkably successful in recruiting simply by using our libertine example as a recruiting too.  And, part of that it might be noted, has been a distressing success rate with Europeans, including European women.

When we think of Islamic extremist groups in Europe, or the US, we tend to think that they're all radicalized Syrians, basically. But that's very far from true.  Some of them are, but others are radicalized first generation Muslims in Europe, and more than a few have been Europeans with no Middle Eastern heritage. What's going on here?

Well, agree with it or not, Islam stands for something. That's much less true of the modern West.

Now, I'm sure people will react that we stand for democracy, and liberty. But do we?

I think we do, but in such an unthinking way that our examples are pretty hollow, as we've forgotten what democracy and liberty, in the modern context, were supposed to mean. They are not the same as social rationalization and libertine.

Indeed, democratic thought is deeply embedded on a concept of the natural rights of man. And the natural rights of man is a principal that stems from the concept of a natural law. Natural law holds that there are certain fundamentals, observable as "self evident", that all people have.  People, although not poorly educated modern lawyers, like that idea as it is self evident and it seems so very fair.

But what is seemingly forgotten in our modern world is that a natural law that recognizes natural rights will care not a wit about an individual's sense of what rights would be, were he creating them. That's something else entirely.  Indeed, that's so debased that its' basically sick.

Natural law credits nature, and if we're to understand what our entire concept of the world, government, liberty and the like is based on, we have to do the same.  We have free will, but we are not free to will what we will. We cannot, that is, create 6 billion individual realities, there is only one.  Everyone's window on that reality will be different, at least somewhat, but that doesn't mean that there's more than one reality, it means that we're too small to grasp the whole.

Anyhow, properly viewed, we believe in individual liberty as we believe that people are endowed with free will. But that means that people are at liberty to act in accordance with the nature and the natural law, but they can't change it.  Nature, and its law, is bigger than we are, and unchanging.

That may seem not to fit in here (and this post is stunningly rambling, I'll admit) but it very much does.  We have looked out at the rest of the world since 1776 and maintained that we are the champions of liberty and justice, as that's part of the natural law. We've sometimes done it badly, but we've done it well enough that we've been a major factor in bringing about a "liberal" sense of the world globally.  We've certainly had the assistance of the the political and philosophical cultures of other European powers in that, even though not all of us have quite the same sense of these things as a national culture.  I'd maintain, however, that down on the street level the overall concepts are not far removed from each other.  That is, the ethos of 1798 may have been the spark of 1917, but at the same time, the average Frenchman, up until mid 20th Century, held views more akin to an Irish tenant farmer than a member of the Parisian mob.

Since 1917, however, that being the returning and focusing of 1798, we've struggled with an opposing view that detests the concept of anything but an animalistic view of our species and which has been largely at war with nature.  In more recent years even though its political expressions have failed, it philosophical ones have not, and since the turmoil of the late 1960s most western political thought, both at home and abroad, has been devoid of any deep meaning.  Long habituated to our political culture, we have not noticed much until recently as it slipped its moorings and became fully devoid of a deep meaning, although many now do sense that, but others have noticed.

In the Islamic world some certainly have, and in a Europe that took in a lot of Muslim immigrants post World War Two, post Colonial retreat, and post Algerian defeat, many residing there, where assimilation is poor, undoubtedly have.  In the years following 1968 a Europe that had grasped that its political and cultural outlook was fully Christian in origin now doesn't know what it even is.  It's for "fairness" and "human rights", but it doesn't know what those concepts are grounded in.  We aren't doing all that much better, although we are doing better, which is frankly why our enemies view us somewhat differently.

For a people who retain a sense of a deep purpose, a larger culture that is grounded on nothing more than "if it feels good, do it", comes across as abhorrent, because it truly is abhorrent.  That it is abhorrent provides the basis for young Europeans, particularly European women, crossing over into the minority culture.  It's notable that more than a few of these women have been Scandinavian or British, as these areas are where the fall is amongst the most expressed.

This doesn't mean, of course, that they're right, and we're wrong, overall.  I'm not urging that we all become radical Muslims and salute the black flag.  Not hardly.  Rather, I'm urging that we take a deep look at the deep things.
And that would mean recognizing that "if we feel good, do it", not only is a moronic philosophy, it's contrary to nature, its contrary to nature's law, and its extremely destructive.  We need, apparently, to get back to where we started from and do some serious thinking.
Our enemy, to put it simply, has a world outlook that looks outside of the world, to an eternal something.  Right now, in the West, we pretty much stand for the proposition of absolute relativism.  The problem with that is not only is it not emotionally satisfying, it's demonstratively false.

There is, very obviously, a set of absolutes as nature exists.  No matter what a person's view is of nature, it doesn't care much about that view.  It is clearly outside of us, and it clearly has its own set of laws.  Early on, and indeed up to very recently, we clearly understood that ourselves.  Now we don't.  This is so much the case that five of the current Supreme Court justices actually believe that the law protects any sexual union as long as it makes individuals feel good.  That's stupid.

And it puts us at a disadvantage against an enemy that recognizes a natural law, even if its a debased version of it.

So, in a war like this, gaining territory will help, but it won't determine the war.  This is a war of ideas. They have some. We have. . . low, low prices and Justice Anthony Love! Kennedy.  We aren't going to win a war based on that.

So, in terms of how we're doing.  Well, we're loosing interest in winning in Afghanistan and Iraq is a mess. We will probably prevail in Iraq, but we have some serious thinking to do. What do we stand for? We need to think about that. We have the high side of the argument, if we don't simply wash it all away.

Monday, July 4, 2016

Sunday, June 5, 2016

The Arab Revolt commences: June 5, 1916

The Arab Revolt against the Ottoman Empire commences, lead by the Hashemites of Mecca.

Movements towards greater Arab autonomy within the  Ottoman Empire had been going on for some time prior to the revolt.  Perhaps not surprisingly, they had been centered in the Lavant, i.e., Syria, which was a much more cosmopolitan and urban region of Arabia than the Arabian Peninsula.  Given the slow movement of the Ottoman Empire in this direction, indeed, given the slow disintegration of the Ottoman Empire, it's unlikely that a revolt would have broken out in 1916, let alone that it would have been centered in the Hajez, but for the outbreak of World War One which stressed the "sick man of Europe" and which gave rise to opportunities to potential Arabian rulers.  The British presence in Egypt (technically part of the Ottoman Empire), the raging war in Europe, the commitment to the Ottoman Empire to the Central Powers in November 1914, all gave rise to a situation which brought about the halting revolution against the Ottomans in 1916.

Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Sykes Picot Agreement Ratified, May 16, 1916

On May 16, 1916, a secret agreement between the British and French was ratified.  It provided:
t is accordingly understood between the French and British governments:

That France and Great Britain are prepared to recognize and protect an independent Arab states or a confederation of Arab states (a) and (b) marked on the annexed map, under the suzerainty of an Arab chief. That in area (a) France, and in area (b) Great Britain, shall have priority of right of enterprise and local loans. That in area (a) France, and in area (b) Great Britain, shall alone supply advisers or foreign functionaries at the request of the Arab state or confederation of Arab states.
That in the blue area France, and in the red area Great Britain, shall be allowed to establish such direct or indirect administration or control as they desire and as they may think fit to arrange with the Arab state or confederation of Arab states.
That in the brown area there shall be established an international administration, the form of which is to be decided upon after consultation with Russia, and subsequently in consultation with the other allies, and the representatives of the Shereef of Mecca.
That Great Britain be accorded (1) the ports of Haifa and Acre, (2) guarantee of a given supply of water from the Tigres and Euphrates in area (a) for area (b). His Majesty's government, on their part, undertake that they will at no time enter into negotiations for the cession of Cyprus to any third power without the previous consent of the French government.
That Alexandretta shall be a free port as regards the trade of the British empire, and that there shall be no discrimination in port charges or facilities as regards British shipping and British goods; that there shall be freedom of transit for British goods through Alexandretta and by railway through the blue area, or (b) area, or area (a); and there shall be no discrimination, direct or indirect, against British goods on any railway or against British goods or ships at any port serving the areas mentioned.
That Haifa shall be a free port as regards the trade of France, her dominions and protectorates, and there shall be no discrimination in port charges or facilities as regards French shipping and French goods. There shall be freedom of transit for French goods through Haifa and by the British railway through the brown area, whether those goods are intended for or originate in the blue area, area (a), or area (b), and there shall be no discrimination, direct or indirect, against French goods on any railway, or against French goods or ships at any port serving the areas mentioned.
That in area (a) the Baghdad railway shall not be extended southwards beyond Mosul, and in area (b) northwards beyond Samarra, until a railway connecting Baghdad and Aleppo via the Euphrates valley has been completed, and then only with the concurrence of the two governments.
That Great Britain has the right to build, administer, and be sole owner of a railway connecting Haifa with area (b), and shall have a perpetual right to transport troops along such a line at all times. It is to be understood by both governments that this railway is to facilitate the connection of Baghdad with Haifa by rail, and it is further understood that, if the engineering difficulties and expense entailed by keeping this connecting line in the brown area only make the project unfeasible, that the French government shall be prepared to consider that the line in question may also traverse the Polgon Banias Keis Marib Salkhad tell Otsda Mesmie before reaching area (b).
For a period of twenty years the existing Turkish customs tariff shall remain in force throughout the whole of the blue and red areas, as well as in areas (a) and (b), and no increase in the rates of duty or conversions from ad valorem to specific rates shall be made except by agreement between the two powers.
There shall be no interior customs barriers between any of the above mentioned areas. The customs duties leviable on goods destined for the interior shall be collected at the port of entry and handed over to the administration of the area of destination.
It shall be agreed that the French government will at no time enter into any negotiations for the cession of their rights and will not cede such rights in the blue area to any third power, except the Arab state or confederation of Arab states, without the previous agreement of his majesty's government, who, on their part, will give a similar undertaking to the French government regarding the red area.
The British and French government, as the protectors of the Arab state, shall agree that they will not themselves acquire and will not consent to a third power acquiring territorial possessions in the Arabian peninsula, nor consent to a third power installing a naval base either on the east coast, or on the islands, of the red sea. This, however, shall not prevent such adjustment of the Aden frontier as may be necessary in consequence of recent Turkish aggression.
The negotiations with the Arabs as to the boundaries of the Arab states shall be continued through the same channel as heretofore on behalf of the two powers.
It is agreed that measures to control the importation of arms into the Arab territories will be considered by the two governments.
I have further the honor to state that, in order to make the agreement complete, his majesty's government are proposing to the Russian government to exchange notes analogous to those exchanged by the latter and your excellency's government on the 26th April last. Copies of these notes will be communicated to your excellency as soon as exchanged.I would also venture to remind your excellency that the conclusion of the present agreement raises, for practical consideration, the question of claims of Italy to a share in any partition or rearrangement of turkey in Asia, as formulated in article 9 of the agreement of the 26th April, 1915, between Italy and the allies.
His Majesty's government further consider that the Japanese government should be informed of the arrangements now concluded.

Public Domain File:MPK1-426 Sykes Picot Agreement Map signed 8 May 1916.jpg, from Wikipedia Commons.    Royal Geographical Society (Map), Mark Sykes & François Georges-Picot.  This is because it is one of the following:
  1. It is a photograph created by the United Kingdom Government and taken prior to 1 June 1957; or
  2. It was commercially published prior to 1966; or
  3. It is an artistic work other than a photograph or engraving (e.g. a painting) which was created by the United Kingdom Government prior to 1966.
HMSO has declared that the expiry of Crown Copyrights applies worldwide
 
The agreement has gone down in history as being an infamous one, leading to the charge that the British and French carved up the Middle East without the consultation of their Arab allies, then in revolt against the Ottoman Empire.

Friday, April 22, 2016

Proving Lawrence right.


 M1911 pistol, like the type that equipped the U.S. Army until the M9 Beretta, and which equipped a fair number of British officers, including T. E. Lawrence, through private purchase during World War One.

Archeologist have found a 230 gr .45 caliber bullet at Hallat Ammar, Saudi Arabia (it's literally on the Jordanian border)

So what you ask?

Well, that is a location which, in 1917, the Hashemite Arab Revolt ambushed and destroyed a Turkish train.  T. E. Lawrence wrote about it in his book Seven Pillars of Wisdom.

So, some would say, what's the big deal.  Wouldn't we expect bullets to be found at a place where combat had taken place?

Yes we would.

But almost as soon as the ink was dry on the Versailles Treaty people have begun to question T. E. Lawrence's role in the Arab Revolt.

And that's because his role loomed so large, the natural question was, was he the Arab Revolt?

The answer to that would be no, but frankly the Arab Revolt would have been a horribly muddled and inefficient affair, if not an outright disaster, without Lawrence.  He didn't start  the revolt, but he frankly did take a revolt that he found that wasn't doing well, reformed its nature, organized it, to include at least partially politically reorganizing it, and took it on to near success.

 Col. T. E. Lawrence

I say near success, as to the extent it wasn't successful is that, the Hashamites, having won that part of the war, lost the peace in very real terms. Rather than uniting the Hajez with Jordon and Syria, the whole thing fell apart in very real terms as the French took Syria and the Saudis, in fairly short order, took the Hajez.  The Hasmites continue on in Jordon, of course, and they received Iraq as a consulation prize, but Iraq is about he worst prize in the box of Middle Easter Cracker Jacks that a person could conceivably get.

Now, why wold anyone doubt Lawrence's role?

Well, there are a lot of reasons.

Lawrence himself contributed to this a bit.

Lawrence was an enigmatic man, to say the least.  A  lively archeologist before the war, he turned out to be a natural military genius, perhaps aided a bit by his extensive study of the Crusades.  Warfare tends to be warfare, irrespective of the era.

But he wasn't comfortable with that role even during the war, and particularly after enduring an assault by a Turkish officer while briefly a prisoner.  He developed what today we'd recognize as a titanic case of Post Traumatic Stress Disorder and he had a massive case of guilt on top of it.  Lawrence came from very devout, if strangely non observant in one fashion, Anglican Anglo-Irish parents and he struggled both with PTSD and with the knowledge that he had, in part due to his own fascination with his goal, deceived both the Arabs and the British in his efforts.   He never got over it.

And in not getting over it, while he wrote a brilliant account of it which turns out more and more to have been very accurate, he obfuscated some details that he could have been clearer on, on military details, and he spent all the rest of his life, after the peace negotiations, hiding, more or less.

But that's far from the only reason.

A second reason is that he was so stunningly successful, and the Arabs have had to live with that.

That may sound odd, but in the history of revolutions, there's rarely an example of where such an insular people have so successfully been lead by a foreigner to whom  they own nearly all the success.  During our revolution, for example, we had the aid of French, German and Polish military men, but they didn't lead our entire army.  Lawrence basically did that for the Arabs. They were doing badly before he started that, and their success came under him, and is really attributable to him.

That's been a heavy burden for the Arabs ever since.

If the Arabs themselves can't really claim the mantle of success for their independence what does that do for their image? Are they even real countries?

 Sayyid Hussein bin Ali, Sharif and Emir of Mecca, King of Hejaz, and self declared Caliph.

Clearly, the Arab nations are real countries, but the whole thing is highly related to British efforts and even the countries that came to exist did so due to what the British did, and didn't do.  The King of Jordan today is the king as the British allowed a Hashemite to be king.  Iraq is a country as the English, perhaps mistakenly, decided it would be.  Syria is a nation as the British acquiesced to French control of Syria and French creation of Lebanon (with some indication that hte French might actually fight the British for both of those).  Kuwait is a country as the British decided that their monarchical leaders ought to be, instead of being part of Iraq.  Saudi Arabia is a state as it was a client, albeit not a good one, of India when India was part of the Empire, and the British decide not to back the Hajez against the House of Saud for some reason.  Everyone in that scenario, except the House of Saud, owes a debt, therefore, to a war time colonel in the British army.

 Prince Feisel, with aids, including Lawrence, at the peace talks.  The black man in the back row is likely a slave, slavery still being practiced amongst the Arabs at that time.  If not a slave, he's certainly a retainer of Feisel's.  Feisel became the King of Iraq.  He died ostensibly of a heart attack at age 48, but poisoning remains suspected.

And amongst the people whom gave birth to Islam, Lawrence provides a problematic reminder that the Arabs have often not really been all that observant of Muslims.  Today, in no small part due to events since 1970, we tend to think of all Middle Eastern people as being devout Muslims, but this is far from true. Amongst the Muslims themselves, even the Arabs have tended not to exhibit the sort of fanatic singular devotion, all of the time, that we associate with groups like ISIL today.  T. E. Lawrence was a Christian leading an Arab army whose seat of power was Mecca. That's a pretty stunning thought.  The Arabs themselves were in rebellion against the Otttoman Turks, whose leader was theoretically a Caliph and who had declared the Turkish effort a jihad.

Mehmed V, who was the Caliph during World War One.  He died in 1918 before the war ended, at age 73.

Abdulmecid II, the last Caliph of the Ottoman Empire.  He's live in exile in France after his position was abolished by the Ottoman parliament.

And he lead them very well.  And was not alone in being a singular English Arab advisor to the Arab forces.  Indeed, the English would continue to play a role in Arab forces right up until the mid 1950s. English officers served with the Jordanian Arab Legion during the 1948 Arab Israeli War.

Well, history is what it is.  And in spite of the embarrassment of some, and the wish that things might have been otherwise by others, we should take it as we find it.

And, perhaps fittingly, we re-find Lawrence the way he found Arabia. . . through archeology.

Monday, January 4, 2016

Is Saudi Arabia out of its mind?

Monarchies haven't fared well in recent decades and some have ended very badly.

Among those that ended badly are those that got their nations into big spats.  Anyone recall Kaiser Wilhelm II, for example?  Took his country into war in support of the Hapsburg's.  He didn't have to do that, but it ended up getting him retired to Holland.  What about the Hapsburg's, who felt that they had to pick that fight as their archduke was gunned down by a pathetic?

Or what about Czar Nicholas II.  Nicky was an absolute autocrat, and took his nation into World War One, which resulted in the Romanov's falling and his entire immediate family getting gunned down.

This past week, the Saudi's executed a prominent Sunni cleric.  The Saudis are Sunni Arabs and allied with Wannabism.  The Iranians are Persian Shiias.  The didn't like each other to start with.

What on earth were the Saudis thinking?

Now protests in Iran have broken out and diplomatic relations have been severed.

Last week, at a New Year's Party, I heard form somebody employed in the oil industry, as a joke (he was not serious), what we need is a war.

Well, we may be getting one.

Friday, January 1, 2016

New Year's Resolutions for Other People. 2016 Edition

 Polly and Her Pals, January 4, 1919.

Yes, I know that this is rude, but I fear that if I don't do this form them, they're not going to do it for themselves. And some folks needs some resolve, let alone resolutions.  So, in spite of last year's failure of this topic, we'll try again.  Probably with an equal lack of success, but here goes.

1.  The American political system.  Hey, your broken and are not making sense.

Well, not completely broken, but the method of picking a President sure is. What's with this absurdly long period just to pick a party candidate that is, after all, the candidate for that party? It's presented like an actual national election.  Ditch it, and have a convention about eight weeks before the national election and pick the candidate then. No primaries or any of that baloney.

And while you are at it, let's admit that the two party system doesn't make natural sense either.  The Democrats are at least two parties, the GOP is at least three.  Let's admit it and get some variety rolling.  Why are Clinton and Saunders in the same party?  Why are Trump and Paul?  It doesn't make very much sense.

2.  The Upper Federal Judiciary.  Back to law school for the Federal bench, or at least the Supreme Court.

The job of the Supreme Court isn't all that hard.  It's just to interpret the law, which usually is fairly straight forward.  Don't worry about the consequences of that, but quit making stuff up when it suits some "evolving concept".  You aren't a legislature.  Last year was a bad year for you.  Try to fix what you botched up in the law this year.

While you are at it, look up "natural law".  If you don't get that, or think there isn't one, enroll in the local colleges night school classes in biology.  Really.  You may have been wearing weird obsolete judicial stuff so long that you've forgotten that there is a nature.

Speaking of obsolete judicial stuff, why are we holding on to robes?  It's strange.

Also speaking of obsolescence, even though I know it runs counter to cherished ideas, perhaps its time to seriously consider imposing a mandatory retirement age for Federal judges. This is, I know, the exact opposite of what our legislature has pondered in regards to our own judiciary in recent years, but I mean it.  Four of the current justices are in their 70s.  Sure, they may be sharp, but sooner or later we're going to get one that isn't, then what?  And beyond that, lawyers, and that's what they are, in their 70s began practicing law in the 1960s.  Most Americans were alive in the 1960s.  Experience is one thing, but time does move on, and recently they've issued an opinion trying to anticipate what they think the evolution of trends are.  People in their 70s aren't necessarily that clued in, really, to current social evolution on things.

3.  The Media.  Try focusing on real news this year. Not the photogenic stuff, but the real stuff.  Just because its photogenic doesn't make it really important.

4.  People who cite statistics routinely.  Oh, you know who you are.

Research what that stuff means, will you?  Just citing some statistic doesn't mean anything if you don't understand the background to it, and the context of it.  Quite often, you are actually boosting erroneous assumptions.

5.  The Wyoming Legislature.  Hey, take a year off on insisting that the Federal government "give back" the land that Wyoming never owned.   

6.  Politicians.  This year, let's admit that the west is in a war with Islamic fundamentalism and that's going to last a very long time.  As part of that, let's not mince words.  It's a war (most of you are finally admitting that).  The Islamic State is not insane, but grounded in a fundamental conservative, if radical, understanding of Islam.  We're going to have to get this right.

7. Saudi Arabia.  Okay, Saudi Arabia, you won't play nice on petroleum, so we don't have to play nice with you.

Saudi Arabia, like every other country in the world, should be subject to the "Mormon Missionary Standard of Civil Conduct".  Now, I'm not a Mormon, but what I mean by that is that if your country can't tolerate a clean cut kid in a white shirt and tie coming to the door to tell you about the Book of Mormon, or perhaps about the views of the Jehovah's Witnesses, it's not an adult country.

It isn't that you have to believe what they believe, but if you are so freaking insecure about your own beliefs that its illegal for Elder Jones or whomever to come to your door, you have a real problem.  Grow up.

So, Saudi Arabia, start acting civil. And, rest of the world, until there's a Christian church, no matter how small, in a Meccas suburb, quit treating these guys like they are our friends. They aren't.

8.  Muslims.  It is rude to tell a person what to believe, save as evangelization, which isn't rude even if perceived as such.  So I'm not telling you what to believe.  But what I am saying is that there's clearly a world crisis in which one branch of Islam is clearly at war with the rest of the world, and at war with less radical Muslims.

We don't hear from you faithful bystanders much, and we need to.  If you agree that the Islamic State is the new caliphate, say so and tell us why. If you don't, and particularly if you don't agree with its methods, we need to hear that.  That takes some courage either way, but we can probably agree that your faith would sanction that.

9.  Christians.  Again, it's not my position to tell people what to believe, but I will note that in recent years some of you seem to adapt to worldly social positions as if they are religious tenants.  A central message of Christ was that Christianity was going to be unpopular and might end up getting you dead at the worst, or put outside of the circle of your family and friends.  So, if the letters of St. Paul are making you squirm a bit, maybe they ought to, rather than making you look to your political party for answers.

10.  The Islamic State.  Just this week you issued instructions how how abhorrent your soldiers were allowed to go with female captives, and that's pretty darned far.

That's creepy.  Stop it.

11.  Celebrities.  Oh, just shut up.  Seriously.  We don't really need to know what you think on anything at all.

And I mean anything.

12. Wyoming drivers.  Enough is a enough on making up new rules at intersections.  The rules are all in a book put out by the DOT. Get it. Read it.  Apply it.

13.  Lawyers.  For all 25 years of my practice I've heard you lamenting about the loss of civility in the practice. And it is real.  Here's an ideal, start acting civil.  

14.  The Bar Exam Committee.  And not just the Wyoming one.  There is no "uniform" law.  All law, even uniform acts, are going to be modified locally.  You exist for your state and your state alone. Ditch the UBE.

15.  Ford Motors and General Motors.  Automatic transmissions to not belong in heavy trucks. Reintroduce the stick shift in them.

And, while you are at it, Chrysler, I like the diesel engine in the Jeep Wrangler, good idea, but with an automatic only?  Seriously?

16.  Law Schools.  We're flooded with lawyers in the  US right now.  This would be a good time to make the curriculum harder and reduce class size.  You'd be doing your students a favor.

For that matter, you'd be doing them a favor too if you went through the faculty and asked everyone if they'd practiced real law for at least ten years. Those who haven't can benefit by getting a pink slip and going out the door to practice what they've been preaching.

While speaking of law schools, perhaps we ought to consider making them a bit more erudite once again.  In recent years this seems to have declined.  Lawyers who don't have a theory of the law and a historical understanding of that theory aren't very well educated.

I'm not sure how to introduce that, but perhaps we should ponder adding a fourth year to law school to include such topics.

17. Chambers of Commerce and all you economic types.  Economic analysis of things is surprisingly shallow.  Growth is good is about all it amounts to as a rule.  Maybe its time to consider economics in an actual real world, this is what people want sort of way.  And not in the worn out Socialist manner that's getting drug back out this year.

I sort of suspect that most people most places aren't all that keen on growth, but might actually want stability more.  Might be worth pondering.

18.  Television.  Okay TV, I hit you last year, and I am again.

Enough is enough.  I don't care what "real housewives" of any place do.  If you show one more episode featuring a bunch of trashy rich women anywhere, and bill them as housewives, you ought to run a hundred about married Hispanic maids in the same communities. They, dear TV, are the real ones.

And no more shows on the Duggars. Ever.  Haven't we had enough?  Granted, maybe to somebody a show about a family with nineteen children was interesting at first, but now its been done.  And spinning it off into second generations is a bit much.

No more Cody Brown and his crew either.   Ack.

19.  Women.  Women, every year there's a story about how women have not reached economic parity with  men, and you haven't.

And then one of your sisters will make a big news splash by omitting most of her clothing, and be celebrated for that.  Don't emulate her, and let her know what you think. She's not liberating you, she's holding you down.

20.  Men.  Dudes, there's been a lot of press here and there about men being less many now days.  And that press has some merit.  Cut it out with the novel haircuts and skintight jeans and do something manly. Seriously. 

And, take a look at number 19.  Yes, that tart is sans apparel in order to sell her image to you, but you don't have to buy it. Take a look at the ossified freak who is credited with getting this debasement rolling.  You definitely don't want to be that guy.  And the current scientific evidence is that this stuff is in fact having a detrimental psychological and effect on you.

HAPPY NEW YEAR ALL!  Thanks for reading my blog.


Wednesday, December 30, 2015

Persistent Myths V: Myths about religion in the Middle East

Myths about religion in the Middle East

LeAnn   at Ramblings of a Teacher, has a series of related "mythconceptions" that she's posted about, and she justifiably asks why, on her blog, do these myths persist.  It's a good question.  Indeed, it's one I pondered without really having a good answer to, but this week I was given a partial one.  In this case, some teachers (not LeAnn) fail to do their homework, and then teach their charges myths or errors.

The reason that I can say that, and I am, is that my daughter was studying for a test on the Middle East last night, and she had with her the supposed answers to the questions she will be tested on. Some of those answers were flat out wrong.  I discussed this as part of the family conversation, but quite frankly, as its her grade, she's learned the wrong answers to the questions.

This teacher is a popular one, and the kids like the teacher.  But at least on this subject, the teacher is pretty badly misinformed.

For example, one of the questions was what three countries in the Middle East are theocracies. As we know, a theocracy is a state ruled by a religion.  There are darned few of them, actually, in history at any one point, and there aren't really any in the Middle East today. The official answer, however, was "Iran, Israel, and Saudi Arabia.

Hmmmm.

Israel is a parliamentary democracy and always has been. It's a "Jewish state", but that doesn't make it a theocracy any more than Germany's status as a German state (like Israel, Germany has a "law of return) makes it a racial state of some sort.  Israel may have a law of return, extending citizenship by option to Jewish people who seek it, but it also grants full voting rights to its Moslem and Christian citizens, both of which it has and has always had.

Indeed, even its status as a "Jewish state" doesn't quite mean what people might suppose.  At its founding, the state of Israel had a fair number of influential secular Jewish people whom others might term as "culturally Jewish."  To be Jewish does not necessarily mean that a person is an observant person religiously, any more than to be Greek automatically makes a person a devout member of the Greek Orthodox Church.

Anyhow, Israel certainly isn't a theocracy.

But that wasn't the only error.

Well what about Saudi Arabia and Iran?  He was right there, wasn't he?
No, neither of those nations are "theocracies", although a person can make the case that Iran is a semi theocracy.

Starting with Iran, Iran calls itself an "Islamic Republic", but names do not necessarily mean all that much.  China, for example, calls itself a "People's Republic", whatever that is supposed to mean, and it isn't a liberal democracy by any means.  East Germany called itself the German Democratic Republic, with the only part of that name that was accurate being the German part.  To add to the problem, it isn't entirely clear what an Islamic Republic is even supposed to mean.

What it seems to mean is a government incorporating Sharia law, which Iran does.  And Sharia law does originate in the Koran.  Beyond that, Iran has a semi functional electoral system, which falls short of what we'd regard as a functioning democracy, but it does have some electoral process.

The country isn't actually run by mullahs, as some would assert, but its very clear that Shia mullahs have a huge, perhaps determinative, role in the governance of the country, together with the descendants of the 1970s Shia fundamentalist revolutionaries.  So what we have there is a heavily Shia influenced, less than fully democratic, quasi revolutionary state.  A person might compare it loosely with early post Mexican Revolution Mexico which had some sort of functioning deliberative body, but which only the PRI really mattered.  Or, a person might badly compare it with Imperial Germany, which had a democratically elected parliament, but the country was really governed and controlled by traditional forces outside of parliament.

Either way you look at it, it isn't truly a "theocracy", although perhaps it comes close.

Well, what about Saudi Arabia?  Not so much.

Saudi Arabia is truly one of the worlds sole surviving examples of a true monarchy.  It's a country basically owned by a single family.  Now, that family did rise to prominence in part through supporting a certain extreme Sunni group of Arabian mullahs, whose thinking is reflected in the state.  But the mullahs themselves never actually governed the country.  Indeed, as the branch of Sunni thought the Sauds espoused was so radical that it was questioned as heretical before their adoption of it and ascension to the crown (or rather creation of the crown), a person might argue that group is in debt to the Sauds.

Now, it is certainly the case that Saudi Arabia is unquestionably Sunni Moslem, and that it also applies Koranic principles to its law.  A person can criticize it, but it doesn't depart in this fashion hugely from other primitive monarchies, most of which have been associated with a religion their respective crowns adopted.  Queen Elizabeth I, for example, wasn't exactly tolerant of Catholics.  That didn't make Elizabethan England a theocracy, however.

And to be continued.

 Syrian Archbishop.  Syrian Catholics and Orthodox represent the second largest religion in the Middle East and the second oldest of the major religions in the Middle East.

Okay, well what else?

Another question asked the students to rank the three largest religions in the Middle East, with the provided answer, in order if number of followers, being Islam, Judaism, and Christianity.

Right?  Nope, that's wrong.

The second largest religion in the Middle East is Christianity. 

I guess I might give a person a bit of a pass on this one, as Middle Easter Christians are so ignored by the outside world, but they are the second oldest religion in the Middle East and they are spread throughout the Middle East.  There isn't a country in the Middle East that doesn't have some native Christians, save perhaps for the very small ones like Dubai or Kuwait.

That's right, some native Christians.

Christian populations in the Middle East range up to as many as 18,000,000 but may be as few as 16,000,000.  More than any other major faith, Christians have been targets of violence in the Middle East and they have accordingly opted for decades for emigration, if they could.  But they still outnumber adherents of Judaism by at least 10,000,000 people, if not more, and it probably is more.Some Middle Eastern countries have, or would have, extremely significant Christian populations but for their being the targets of increasing violence in recent years, making them a population that is essentially undergoing "ethnic cleansing" as we speak, with hardly anyone doing anything about it.  Populations of Catholics, Orthodox and Coptic Christians are under stress everywhere in the Middle East.

If immigrant populations in the form of temporary workers are included, some Middle Eastern countries, such as Dubai, would be regarded as having huge, mostly Catholic, populations.

Indeed, one of the myths of the Middle East, related to this story, is that Islam took the region by storm.  It didn't.  Islam didn't become the power in the region it became until Sulemon, but even at that the "Islamic" principalities he conquered often had Christian majorities.  It wasn't until tremendous force was brought upon these communities that conversions to Islam really began.  Islam wasn't even able to sweep the Arabian Peninsula without the help, ironically, of a tribe on the peninsula that was Catholic.  Christian populations hung on everywhere, in isolation, for a very long time, and in some ways what we're seeing now in regards to them has been a story that's been ongoing for over 1,000 years.