Showing posts with label Saudi Arabia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Saudi Arabia. Show all posts

Thursday, December 10, 2015

The President's Speech on the Terrorist attack in San Bernadino

Just yesterday, I published this item that followed the terrorist attack in San Bernadino.
Lex Anteinternet: Playing Games with Names and Burying Heads in the ...: Quite some time ago I published this thread, and then later came in to update it: Lex Anteinternet: Peculiarized violence and American s...
To my surprise, the President chose to address the nation from the Oval Office regarding this terrible event, or what's inspiring it, yesterday.  I'm going to set his entire speech out below in its entirety, as that's the fair thing to do. Then I"m going to make some comments regarding it, and thing surrounding it, below that.

 Official portrait of a smiling President Obama.  In actuality, the pressures of the job appear to make him look older every day, as they do for most Presidents.

The Speech
Good evening. On Wednesday, 14 Americans were killed as they came together to celebrate the holidays. They were taken from family and friends who loved them deeply. They were white and black; Latino and Asian; immigrants and American-born; moms and dads; daughters and sons. Each of them served their fellow citizens and all of them were part of our American family.

Tonight, I want to talk with you about this tragedy, the broader threat of terrorism, and how we can keep our country safe.



The F.B.I. is still gathering the facts about what happened in San Bernardino, but here is what we know. The victims were brutally murdered and injured by one of their co-workers and his wife. So far, we have no evidence that the killers were directed by a terrorist organization overseas, or that they were part of a broader conspiracy here at home. But it is clear that the two of them had gone down the dark path of radicalization, embracing a perverted interpretation of Islam that calls for war against America and the West. They had stockpiled assault weapons, ammunition, and pipe bombs. So this was an act of terrorism, designed to kill innocent people.
Our nation has been at war with terrorists since Al Qaeda killed nearly 3,000 Americans on 9/11. In the process, we’ve hardened our defenses — from airports to financial centers, to other critical infrastructure. Intelligence and law enforcement agencies have disrupted countless plots here and overseas, and worked around the clock to keep us safe. Our military and counterterrorism professionals have relentlessly pursued terrorist networks overseas — disrupting safe havens in several different countries, killing Osama bin Laden, and decimating Al Qaeda’s leadership.
Over the last few years, however, the terrorist threat has evolved into a new phase. As we’ve become better at preventing complex, multifaceted attacks like 9/11, terrorists turned to less complicated acts of violence like the mass shootings that are all too common in our society. It is this type of attack that we saw at Fort Hood in 2009; in Chattanooga earlier this year; and now in San Bernardino. And as groups like ISIL grew stronger amidst the chaos of war in Iraq and then Syria, and as the Internet erases the distance between countries, we see growing efforts by terrorists to poison the minds of people like the Boston Marathon bombers and the San Bernardino killers.
For seven years, I’ve confronted this evolving threat each morning in my intelligence briefing. And since the day I took this office, I’ve authorized U.S. forces to take out terrorists abroad precisely because I know how real the danger is. As commander in chief, I have no greater responsibility than the security of the American people. As a father to two young daughters who are the most precious part of my life, I know that we see ourselves with friends and co-workers at a holiday party like the one in San Bernardino. I know we see our kids in the faces of the young people killed in Paris. And I know that after so much war, many Americans are asking whether we are confronted by a cancer that has no immediate cure.
Well, here’s what I want you to know: The threat from terrorism is real, but we will overcome it. We will destroy ISIL and any other organization that tries to harm us. Our success won’t depend on tough talk, or abandoning our values, or giving into fear. That’s what groups like ISIL are hoping for. Instead, we will prevail by being strong and smart, resilient and relentless, and by drawing upon every aspect of American power.
Here’s how. First, our military will continue to hunt down terrorist plotters in any country where it is necessary. In Iraq and Syria, airstrikes are taking out ISIL leaders, heavy weapons, oil tankers, infrastructure. And since the attacks in Paris, our closest allies — including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — have ramped up their contributions to our military campaign, which will help us accelerate our effort to destroy ISIL.
Second, we will continue to provide training and equipment to tens of thousands of Iraqi and Syrian forces fighting ISIL on the ground so that we take away their safe havens. In both countries, we’re deploying Special Operations forces who can accelerate that offensive. We’ve stepped up this effort since the attacks in Paris, and we’ll continue to invest more in approaches that are working on the ground.
Third, we’re working with friends and allies to stop ISIL’s operations — to disrupt plots, cut off their financing, and prevent them from recruiting more fighters. Since the attacks in Paris, we’ve surged intelligence-sharing with our European allies. We’re working with Turkey to seal its border with Syria. And we are cooperating with Muslim-majority countries — and with our Muslim communities here at home — to counter the vicious ideology that ISIL promotes online.
Fourth, with American leadership, the international community has begun to establish a process — and timeline — to pursue cease-fires and a political resolution to the Syrian war. Doing so will allow the Syrian people and every country, including our allies, but also countries like Russia, to focus on the common goal of destroying ISIL — a group that threatens us all.
This is our strategy to destroy ISIL. It is designed and supported by our military commanders and counterterrorism experts, together with 65 countries that have joined an American-led coalition. And we constantly examine our strategy to determine when additional steps are needed to get the job done. That’s why I’ve ordered the departments of State and Homeland Security to review the visa waiver program under which the female terrorist in San Bernardino originally came to this country. And that’s why I will urge high-tech and law enforcement leaders to make it harder for terrorists to use technology to escape from justice.
Now, here at home, we have to work together to address the challenge. There are several steps that Congress should take right away.
To begin with, Congress should act to make sure no one on a no-fly list is able to buy a gun. What could possibly be the argument for allowing a terrorist suspect to buy a semiautomatic weapon? This is a matter of national security.
We also need to make it harder for people to buy powerful assault weapons like the ones that were used in San Bernardino. I know there are some who reject any gun safety measures. But the fact is that our intelligence and law enforcement agencies — no matter how effective they are — cannot identify every would-be mass shooter, whether that individual is motivated by ISIL or some other hateful ideology. What we can do — and must do — is make it harder for them to kill.
Next, we should put in place stronger screening for those who come to America without a visa so that we can take a hard look at whether they’ve traveled to warzones. And we’re working with members of both parties in Congress to do exactly that.
Finally, if Congress believes, as I do, that we are at war with ISIL, it should go ahead and vote to authorize the continued use of military force against these terrorists. For over a year, I have ordered our military to take thousands of airstrikes against ISIL targets. I think it’s time for Congress to vote to demonstrate that the American people are united, and committed, to this fight.
My fellow Americans, these are the steps that we can take together to defeat the terrorist threat. Let me now say a word about what we should not do.
We should not be drawn once more into a long and costly ground war in Iraq or Syria. That’s what groups like ISIL want. They know they can’t defeat us on the battlefield. ISIL fighters were part of the insurgency that we faced in Iraq. But they also know that if we occupy foreign lands, they can maintain insurgencies for years, killing thousands of our troops, draining our resources, and using our presence to draw new recruits.
The strategy that we are using now — airstrikes, Special Forces, and working with local forces who are fighting to regain control of their own country — that is how we’ll achieve a more sustainable victory. And it won’t require us sending a new generation of Americans overseas to fight and die for another decade on foreign soil.
Here’s what else we cannot do. We cannot turn against one another by letting this fight be defined as a war between America and Islam. That, too, is what groups like ISIL want. ISIL does not speak for Islam. They are thugs and killers, part of a cult of death, and they account for a tiny fraction of more than a billion Muslims around the world — including millions of patriotic Muslim Americans who reject their hateful ideology. Moreover, the vast majority of terrorist victims around the world are Muslim. If we’re to succeed in defeating terrorism we must enlist Muslim communities as some of our strongest allies, rather than push them away through suspicion and hate.
That does not mean denying the fact that an extremist ideology has spread within some Muslim communities. This is a real problem that Muslims must confront, without excuse. Muslim leaders here and around the globe have to continue working with us to decisively and unequivocally reject the hateful ideology that groups like ISIL and Al Qaeda promote; to speak out against not just acts of violence, but also those interpretations of Islam that are incompatible with the values of religious tolerance, mutual respect, and human dignity.

But just as it is the responsibility of Muslims around the world to root out misguided ideas that lead to radicalization, it is the responsibility of all Americans — of every faith — to reject discrimination. It is our responsibility to reject religious tests on who we admit into this country. It’s our responsibility to reject proposals that Muslim Americans should somehow be treated differently. Because when we travel down that road, we lose. That kind of divisiveness, that betrayal of our values plays into the hands of groups like ISIL. Muslim Americans are our friends and our neighbors, our co-workers, our sports heroes — and, yes, they are our men and women in uniform who are willing to die in defense of our country. We have to remember that.
My fellow Americans, I am confident we will succeed in this mission because we are on the right side of history. We were founded upon a belief in human dignity — that no matter who you are, or where you come from, or what you look like, or what religion you practice, you are equal in the eyes of God and equal in the eyes of the law.
Even in this political season, even as we properly debate what steps I and future presidents must take to keep our country safe, let’s make sure we never forget what makes us exceptional. Let’s not forget that freedom is more powerful than fear; that we have always met challenges — whether war or depression, natural disasters or terrorist attacks — by coming together around our common ideals as one nation, as one people. So long as we stay true to that tradition, I have no doubt America will prevail.
Thank you. God bless you, and may God bless the United States of America.
Initial Commentary by the Press and Politicians.

I haven't seen all that much commentary from the press and pols yet, but I did see this morning that the Today Show summarized the speech in a caption by noting that the President called ISIL "thugs" and called "for gun measures", or something like that.

What dimwitted captioning.

Sure, he may have called ISIL thugs but that was hardly the main point of the speech and the speech, while it touches on domestic gun policy (and I'll comment on that) only barely did.

An F for you Today Show. Back to grade school.

I don't know how many current candidates reacted to it either. Recently Democratic and Republican candidates have been reacting to distance themselves form the President on almost everything amazingly fast.  But I do know that Donald Trump reacted with 90 seconds of the speech. Boo hiss.

I don't comment much on the current Presidential candidates, but I will here.  This has been the singularly most disappointing Presidential election campaign of my entire life so far, and I can recall campaigns back to Nixon's.  None of the front runners on either side are impressive and frankly things are beginning to get a bit scary.  If things keep proceeding the way that they are, we're going to get a poor choice, in my view, no matter who wins.

A politician can't react with thoughtful consideration to something 90 seconds after it happened, and snippets about it being poor that quickly are not well thought out.

The Speech in General.

Okay, if The Today Show gets an F, the President gets the "where were you on that day in class" comment.


I'm not one of those individuals who thinks President Obama does everything wrong by any means.  I often feel sorry for him.  I feel sorry for him in part as I suspect he has a life size poster of Woodrow Wilson hanging in his chambers and that he's trying to channel the ineffective 28th President of the United States.  Unlike Wilson, he doesn't have a creepy racist streak, but he is affiliated by an academic mindset that makes him stunningly ineffective.

 If President Obama is haunted by the ghost of Woodrow Wilson, he should be.

And here he's been that.  This speech doesn't come after a "turning point" like it proclaims.  I guess I can't blame him for not admitting what hardly anyone else has been willing to admit, that this war has been running for a long time, will run for a long time, and part of it will be fought out here, but somebody ought to just flat out state it.

I will give him credit, however, for keeping it pretty focused on the actual topic, Islamic terrorism.  If you read the social media sites people have taken this story and run off to fight about other things, often with poorly thought out comments. And politicians are often inclined to do that.  He didn't.

Now, let's break the speech down.

The Speech in Particular

My comments appear below what I'm commenting on. In some places, parts of the President's speech are highlighted where a particular items is commented on.
Good evening. On Wednesday, 14 Americans were killed as they came together to celebrate the holidays. They were taken from family and friends who loved them deeply. They were white and black; Latino and Asian; immigrants and American-born; moms and dads; daughters and sons. Each of them served their fellow citizens and all of them were part of our American family.
It hadn't occurred to me before reading this, but the fact that this was a "Holiday" gathering may very well have something to do with why this place was attacked on this day, both in terms of his personal choice and its symbolic one.

We continue to only barely address the "Islamic", and by that we mean the extreme Islamic nature, of what we're facing, but that's been an element in both of the recent attacks, perhaps.  The venue chosen in Paris appears to have been chosen in part because it was an area where secularized Muslims went.  I.e., they were the "apostates" the terrorist were targeting.  Here, we see a fellow targeting his co-workers while they were celebrating a holiday that has its origin as a Holy Day.

We hate the idea that we're in a religious war, as we don't fight those and we like to believe that those are remnants of some bad old days we grew out of. Well, we're in one.
Tonight, I want to talk with you about this tragedy, the broader threat of terrorism, and how we can keep our country safe.


The F.B.I. is still gathering the facts about what happened in San Bernardino, but here is what we know. The victims were brutally murdered and injured by one of their co-workers and his wife. So far, we have no evidence that the killers were directed by a terrorist organization overseas, or that they were part of a broader conspiracy here at home. But it is clear that the two of them had gone down the dark path of radicalization, embracing a perverted interpretation of Islam that calls for war against America and the West. They had stockpiled assault weapons, ammunition, and pipe bombs. So this was an act of terrorism, designed to kill innocent people.
Recognition of the fact that we're in a war with Islamic extremist is long over due.  But is it a perversion of Islam?

 The black flag of the Wahhabi combatants that brought the House of Saud to power.  The Islamic State has its own black flag.

Maybe.  This movement somewhat has its roots in Wahhabi Sunnism.  That movement was regarded as heretical by other Muslims when it first appeared on the Arabian Peninsula.  But, the militant and puritanical movement obtained legitimacy when the House of Saud became allied to it.

Now, in fairness, the House of Saud isn't the Islamic State, but the repressive regime has preserved this extreme variant of Islam and out of it have come some fanatic movements, first Al Queda and now ISIL.  The difference between the two has to do with their view of when and how the Caliphate will be restored, and here ISIL may truly be not only radical, but heretical.  Hence, in part, the conflict that has existed between ISIL and Al Queda in some places, and ISIL and the Taliban in Afghanistan.  Essentially, ISIL has taken the core of Wahhabi beliefs and them declared themselves to be the only legitimate standard bearers.

 The green flag of Saudi Arabia.

But that some would be drawn to them is not as odd as it may seem.  Saudi Arabia funds a huge number of mosques in the United States and as a result its difficult for Muslims here not to be exposed to it.  And in some ways, the radical nature of the appeal of this is perhaps no more radical than some of the most extreme movements during the Reformation, which would have looked equally bizarre and appalling from the outside, or from southern Catholic Europe, during that period.

That is to say, those drawn to this aren't necessarily falling into religious decay, but maybe something they view as the opposite, which makes this a much more difficult thing to confront.  More on this is set out below.
Our nation has been at war with terrorists since Al Qaeda killed nearly 3,000 Americans on 9/11. In the process, we’ve hardened our defenses — from airports to financial centers, to other critical infrastructure. Intelligence and law enforcement agencies have disrupted countless plots here and overseas, and worked around the clock to keep us safe. Our military and counterterrorism professionals have relentlessly pursued terrorist networks overseas — disrupting safe havens in several different countries, killing Osama bin Laden, and decimating Al Qaeda’s leadership.
Al Queda was at war with us well before September 11, 2001. We just woke up to it at that time.  Prior to that, there had been the attack on the USS Cole and a prior Islamic extremist attempt on the Twin Towers.

This may be a bit of a minor point, perhaps akin to recalling that the US was really engaged in World War Two prior to December 7, 1941, but still, it's something worth recalling, as if we do not accurately recall such things, we are prone to make mistaken assumptions and judgments.
Over the last few years, however, the terrorist threat has evolved into a new phase. As we’ve become better at preventing complex, multifaceted attacks like 9/11, terrorists turned to less complicated acts of violence like the mass shootings that are all too common in our society. It is this type of attack that we saw at Fort Hood in 2009; in Chattanooga earlier this year; and now in San Bernardino. And as groups like ISIL grew stronger amidst the chaos of war in Iraq and then Syria, and as the Internet erases the distance between countries, we see growing efforts by terrorists to poison the minds of people like the Boston Marathon bombers and the San Bernardino killers.
Long overdue recognition of this basic fact at last, and the first I've seen acknowledging the Ft. Hood attacks were a terrorist attack.  The government previously categorized the attack at Ft. Hood as "work place violence", which it clearly is not in the meaningful sense.
For seven years, I’ve confronted this evolving threat each morning in my intelligence briefing. And since the day I took this office, I’ve authorized U.S. forces to take out terrorists abroad precisely because I know how real the danger is. As commander in chief, I have no greater responsibility than the security of the American people. As a father to two young daughters who are the most precious part of my life, I know that we see ourselves with friends and co-workers at a holiday party like the one in San Bernardino. I know we see our kids in the faces of the young people killed in Paris. And I know that after so much war, many Americans are asking whether we are confronted by a cancer that has no immediate cure.
Well, here’s what I want you to know: The threat from terrorism is real, but we will overcome it. We will destroy ISIL and any other organization that tries to harm us. Our success won’t depend on tough talk, or abandoning our values, or giving into fear. That’s what groups like ISIL are hoping for. Instead, we will prevail by being strong and smart, resilient and relentless, and by drawing upon every aspect of American power.
I suspect, long term, he's correct. But perhaps not so much for reasons he suspects as in that classic Western liberalism, as opposed to political liberalism as we currently define it, will win.  And that will start to occur in Islamic societies with women first, but that's another topic really.

Long term, anyhow, we will win. But let's be honest now. We're loosing.  And not only on the battlefield in the Middle East, where ISIL has gone from being a movement to a real state, but in the west, where the culture has become so anemic that the philosophy which ISIL espouses is attractive not only to members of the immigrant Muslim population but native born westerners as well.
Here’s how. First, our military will continue to hunt down terrorist plotters in any country where it is necessary. In Iraq and Syria, airstrikes are taking out ISIL leaders, heavy weapons, oil tankers, infrastructure. And since the attacks in Paris, our closest allies — including France, Germany, and the United Kingdom — have ramped up their contributions to our military campaign, which will help us accelerate our effort to destroy ISIL.
Second, we will continue to provide training and equipment to tens of thousands of Iraqi and Syrian forces fighting ISIL on the ground so that we take away their safe havens. In both countries, we’re deploying Special Operations forces who can accelerate that offensive. We’ve stepped up this effort since the attacks in Paris, and we’ll continue to invest more in approaches that are working on the ground.
And here's where the poor strategic analysis really begins.

Arming Syrian forces to take on the Islamic State is a proven failure and its not going to improve ever.  There are no serious and capable pro western democratic forces in Syria, and darned few in Iraq either.  The only really capable forces fighting the Islamic State on the ground are Kurdish militias and the Syrian army, neither of which is is pro western.  The Kurds, as admirable as they are, are for an independent socialist, or even quasi communist, Kurdistan that none of their neighbors can see come into existence.  The Syrian government is basically fascist.   Our best hope, really, is to bolster a Kurdistan, probably federated within Iraq, that would make us a bit queasy, as at least it wouldn't be a theocracy, and to bolster the Syrian government, which is going to make us queasy but which at least as a recognizably western, albeit fascist, form of government.

Any other rebel force in the region is going to be Islamist.  The Iraqi government is going to be an Iranian satellite.  That's just the way it is. 
Third, we’re working with friends and allies to stop ISIL’s operations — to disrupt plots, cut off their financing, and prevent them from recruiting more fighters. Since the attacks in Paris, we’ve surged intelligence-sharing with our European allies. We’re working with Turkey to seal its border with Syria. And we are cooperating with Muslim-majority countries — and with our Muslim communities here at home — to counter the vicious ideology that ISIL promotes online.
Unless we're really willing to surrender initiative to our friends and allies, we better think about this.

Starting in 1958, we worked to squash initiative amongst our friends and allies like a bug, and we've been at that ever since.  We were diligently against our ally France's effort in Algeria, and probably rightly, but we were against it.  We opposed our allies and friend's intervention in the Suez in 1958 as well, and that stopped it from freely occurring at the same level ever since.  Only France has really been active to any significant degree independent of the United States.

Okay, I"m fine with us saying "you guys take the lead", but that means unleashing independent goals that we can't control. For the Turks, that means squashing the Kurds, let's not be naive.  And if that actually meant, and it won't, that France and the UK went into Syria on the ground, they're not going to let us tell them how to rebuilt the place thereafter. Nor should they.  Nor would it be a good idea in that context.

Plenty of our friends and allies have independent goals in the world.

So, if France invokes Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty and says its going to put together a European Expeditionary Force and cross over from ally Turkey's land, we're okay with that, right?

Right?

Um, right?
Fourth, with American leadership, the international community has begun to establish a process — and timeline — to pursue cease-fires and a political resolution to the Syrian war. Doing so will allow the Syrian people and every country, including our allies, but also countries like Russia, to focus on the common goal of destroying ISIL — a group that threatens us all.
Oh what a bunch of naive slop.

This is President Obama lecturing the students about the upcoming final.  We've been looking towards this process for years now, and the alternative process, a civil war, is the one that's being used.  Our "leadership" on this is anemic and making things worse.
This is our strategy to destroy ISIL. It is designed and supported by our military commanders and counterterrorism experts, together with 65 countries that have joined an American-led coalition. And we constantly examine our strategy to determine when additional steps are needed to get the job done. That’s why I’ve ordered the departments of State and Homeland Security to review the visa waiver program under which the female terrorist in San Bernardino originally came to this country. And that’s why I will urge high-tech and law enforcement leaders to make it harder for terrorists to use technology to escape from justice.
 

Okay, I earlier posted an item on this blog called They're Not Dogs arguing that we should continue to take in Syrian refugees, and I still feel this way.  But this item touches on immigration in general, and here we really need to rethink what we're doing in general, although not for reasons that have anything to do with terrorism at all.

American immigration policies in general really contemplate a much less populated continent.  For most of our history, while we've had a policy, the policy was really geared towards taking in Europeans, for the most part, who could hopefully add to our economy.  Under a reform of the system sponsored by Ted Kennedy, however, we opened the doors wide open to the sentiments expressed on the Statute of Liberty, i.e., "give me your poor".

That's nice as a sentiment, but it also naively assumes that cultures don't matter and that economics don't matter. They do.  And a policy that takes in members of like cultures that are designed to add to our own economy is the sane policy for a nation.  Taking in anyone else is the admirable policy of a charity, which the country isn't, and therefore must be carefully considered, just as any immigration policy must and should be.  I'm not saying don't, I'm saying think.

The United States is pretty much "full up", whether those inside the beltway realize it or not.  We are actually losing more Hispanic migrants to Mexico now than we are gaining. What's that say about us?  Taking in refugees is one thing, but continuing to take in any immigrant up to 1M per year, in a country that has as many native poor as we do, is mean to the native poor and stupid.  Until our own internal immigrants, mostly people of color, have actually achieved parity with the majority of Americans, we probably ought to really such routine immigration down.

All of which has nothing whatsoever with taking in refugees, which is a moral obligation, and thereby extension doesn't touch upon the few members of the distressed Syrian population we are set to take in.
Now, here at home, we have to work together to address the challenge. There are several steps that Congress should take right away.
To begin with, Congress should act to make sure no one on a no-fly list is able to buy a gun. What could possibly be the argument for allowing a terrorist suspect to buy a semiautomatic weapon? This is a matter of national security.
People keep asking about the "no fly list" on gun control, but the list has a 40% error rate and this provision is probably unconstitutional.  Even if we modified the list to make it much more accurate, given that holding highly negative views against the United States does not equate with depriving a person of a Constitutional right.  A person can be a Muslim hard liner, or a Communist, or a Fascist, and still have the full range of constitutional rights.

There is a solution for that, however.

Declare war.

I have an upcoming post on that which will go into it in detail, but at htis point, the Islamic State is a state, and we might as well quit pretending. Declaring war would allow the government to regard those with probable traitorous intent to be regarded in that fashion, or allow the government to take other reasonable means to deprive these people of the ability to act.

But Congress and the President have lost this part of the Constitution and are afraid of it.  They need to get over that.  If President Obama asked for a Declaration of War now, he'd get it.

But then, he'd also have to get off his duff and actually commit to fighting ISIL, which means more than warm feelings towards our allies, an air commitment, and treating the entire thing as a large law enforcement action.  He won't. Because at the end of the day, he feels that ISIL won't show up for the final exam and will get an F for the term.
We also need to make it harder for people to buy powerful assault weapons like the ones that were used in San Bernardino. I know there are some who reject any gun safety measures. But the fact is that our intelligence and law enforcement agencies — no matter how effective they are — cannot identify every would-be mass shooter, whether that individual is motivated by ISIL or some other hateful ideology. What we can do — and must do — is make it harder for them to kill.
I know that it may be pedantic, but one of the things that drives people who know something about guns nuts is the stupid stuff the ignorant say about them, particular ignorant policy makes.

No "powerful assault weapons" have been used in a crime in this country since the Great Depression.  Indeed, for the banners, they ought to take a lesson in that in that the lat time "powerful assault weapons" were used it resulted in the National Firearms Act. The NFA, by the way, did not ban automatic weapons nor prohibit their ownership, but it does treat them differently under the law. Why don't these people actually look at a law that they passed htat worked?

Probably because they dimly believe that a semi automatic rifle is an "assault weapon".  Not even close.  And semi automatic weapons have been available on the commercial market for over a century.  Indeed, they were available as civilian weapons before they were used as military ones.

So, the first task in addressing any topic like this would be to quit having people make laws based on their poor understanding of what they're addressing.  Indeed, that's always the case. That's why people wouldn't want me writing laws on stock cars or football, as I don't like them and my law would be ignorant and oppressive.
Next, we should put in place stronger screening for those who come to America without a visa so that we can take a hard look at whether they’ve traveled to warzones. And we’re working with members of both parties in Congress to do exactly that.
Indeed, as noted above, that's a good idea.
Finally, if Congress believes, as I do, that we are at war with ISIL, it should go ahead and vote to authorize the continued use of military force against these terrorists. For over a year, I have ordered our military to take thousands of airstrikes against ISIL targets. I think it’s time for Congress to vote to demonstrate that the American people are united, and committed, to this fight.
No, Congress should Declare War.

Short of that, it should do what the President asks here, but what it really ought to do is to declare war.
My fellow Americans, these are the steps that we can take together to defeat the terrorist threat. Let me now say a word about what we should not do.
We should not be drawn once more into a long and costly ground war in Iraq or Syria. That’s what groups like ISIL want. They know they can’t defeat us on the battlefield. ISIL fighters were part of the insurgency that we faced in Iraq. But they also know that if we occupy foreign lands, they can maintain insurgencies for years, killing thousands of our troops, draining our resources, and using our presence to draw new recruits.
The strategy that we are using now — airstrikes, Special Forces, and working with local forces who are fighting to regain control of their own country — that is how we’ll achieve a more sustainable victory. And it won’t require us sending a new generation of Americans overseas to fight and die for another decade on foreign soil. 

Too late for this one.

Early on, I'd have agreed on Syria.  I don't agree so much on Iraq, which we broke, and then left too early. We're paying the consequence on Iraq now. But in some ways, breaking Iraq broke Syria, and so both are our responsibility.

There are no competent ground forces in the region that can both topple the Islamic State and result in a regime we'd admire. Indeed, in Syria, the competent ground force that is now gaining ground is the Syrian army, and it's going to win thanks to the assistance of the Russians. And the sooner the better.

Otherwise, all that really exists are what amount to militias and the remnant of the Iraqi army, and that's not going to get the job done. The much celebrated Kurds are nothing more than a regional militia, or rather series of militias, and they control now most of what they'll fight for.  Indeed, their task is to hold that from the Syrians, the Islamic State and as a practical matter, Turkey.  The Iraqi army is a disaster, thanks to the Iraqi government we left in place too soon, which is Shiia dominated and which has alienated the Sunnis.  The remaining militias tend to be Shiia militias which aren't going to gain popularity with Sunni populations.  Indeed, the Sunnis being close in locality to Saudi Arabia, which is the fountain of Sunni radicalism, will likely at some point begin to look sympathetically towards it.

What is needed is a western army, or at least a western lead army. And that army is going to have to occupy at least Iraq for some time, or  this will repeat.

We aren't going to win this by using aircraft and 50 SF troops.  There's no earthly way that will occur.
Here’s what else we cannot do. We cannot turn against one another by letting this fight be defined as a war between America and Islam. That, too, is what groups like ISIL want. ISIL does not speak for Islam. They are thugs and killers, part of a cult of death, and they account for a tiny fraction of more than a billion Muslims around the world — including millions of patriotic Muslim Americans who reject their hateful ideology. Moreover, the vast majority of terrorist victims around the world are Muslim. If we’re to succeed in defeating terrorism we must enlist Muslim communities as some of our strongest allies, rather than push them away through suspicion and hate.
That does not mean denying the fact that an extremist ideology has spread within some Muslim communities. This is a real problem that Muslims must confront, without excuse. Muslim leaders here and around the globe have to continue working with us to decisively and unequivocally reject the hateful ideology that groups like ISIL and Al Qaeda promote; to speak out against not just acts of violence, but also those interpretations of Islam that are incompatible with the values of religious tolerance, mutual respect, and human dignity.

But just as it is the responsibility of Muslims around the world to root out misguided ideas that lead to radicalization, it is the responsibility of all Americans — of every faith — to reject discrimination. It is our responsibility to reject religious tests on who we admit into this country. It’s our responsibility to reject proposals that Muslim Americans should somehow be treated differently. Because when we travel down that road, we lose. That kind of divisiveness, that betrayal of our values plays into the hands of groups like ISIL. Muslim Americans are our friends and our neighbors, our co-workers, our sports heroes — and, yes, they are our men and women in uniform who are willing to die in defense of our country. We have to remember that.
On the three paragraphs above, while all of this is true, the problem is that the counter also tends to be true.  Muslims are, as a rule, amazingly mute on this topic.  Not all. Indeed, an organization of Muslim women in the United States started loudly protesting the capture of their faith by extremist earlier this week.  Although notable in that is that they were Shiia women who were protesting against the exclusively Sunni ISIL.

Indeed, that's an element of this that will continue to perplex us.  There is not one "Islam", but a variety of Islams.  Within those groups there's no easy way for one group to proclaim its own members out of line, as long as those members can cite to the Koran.  Muslims can, are, and should protest ISIL, but they can only really do so here because they are  Shiia, and ISIL is a Sunni movement.  Ironically, when Iran was the center of radicalism, it was really only  the Sunnis, the second largest Islamic branch, which could complain about that.

Sunni Islam is a very large segment of Islam and therefore in order for what's noted above to be really effective, Sunnis themselves have to declare ISIL to be an anathema.  But they really can't do so easily.   They tend to be muted, and for a variety of reasons.  The degree of sympathy towards theoretical, rather than actual, extreme Sunni actions also tends to be surprisingly high in western Sunni communities, although it does not represent the majority of their views.

Put another way, the problem we have here is that Islam doesn't resemble any of the large Christian denominations.  While it likely had its origins as a Gnostic Christian heresy, it has not retained the early Church's structure the way that the Catholic, Orthodox, and those Protestant churches based on the Catholic Church, have.  Therefore, there's no easy way for the faith itself to proclaim something improper. By way of an example, during the Irish Civil War, the Republicans, almost all Catholic to a man, found themselves facing excommunication for fighting the Irish Free State, essentially taking the wind out of their sales.  There's no central Sunni authority that can do that.

Islam more closely resembles, in that fashion, what are called "free" or "non denominational" churches in the United States, although not purely so that either.  Theologically, these types of Protestant denominations form around a pastor who holds his own views on the Bible, and the congregation can accept them or vote with their feet, but one non denominational church can't really proclaim another across town to be completely out of sink with Christianity and have that mean much to anyone.  Likewise, it isn't very meaningful if one Mullah declares the Islamic State's views to be out of sink with the Koran.

This is all the more problematic as while the movement which gave rise to this extreme version of Sunnism was regarded as heretical at first, it no longer is and the Saudi's fund most mosque in the United States, thereby perpetuating this sort of theological view.

And to compound matters, for a long time, at least since the disappearance of the Hellenic branch of Islam, reforms of the faith have tended to be conservative, which is also often missed.  They don't reform "forward", but "back".  That puts their Muslim faithful in a difficult positions.

Which is likely why Islam has suffered a huge decline in numbers if the region where the fighting is occurring.  But that as a solution is something that no western government can urge.  Over time, chances are very high that most western Muslims will practice their faith in a fashion that most western Jews do.  In a reformed fashion.  But that will take time to come about, and while it's coming about, the hard core in their own community are targeting them and will continue to do so.
My fellow Americans, I am confident we will succeed in this mission because we are on the right side of history. We were founded upon a belief in human dignity — that no matter who you are, or where you come from, or what you look like, or what religion you practice, you are equal in the eyes of God and equal in the eyes of the law.
Even in this political season, even as we properly debate what steps I and future presidents must take to keep our country safe, let’s make sure we never forget what makes us exceptional. Let’s not forget that freedom is more powerful than fear; that we have always met challenges — whether war or depression, natural disasters or terrorist attacks — by coming together around our common ideals as one nation, as one people. So long as we stay true to that tradition, I have no doubt America will prevail.
Thank you. God bless you, and may God bless the United States of America.
 Interesting times.

Monday, December 7, 2015

The new economic normal?

I started this post off about a week ago, and then let it set as I was traveling for work.  In the meantime OPEC had their meeting, and I've just posted on that. This post came back to mind at that time.  According to the Tribune, Wyoming's economy is now flat.  With the OPEC failure to put in place caps, I'm worried that it won't remain flat for long, however, which is what I had originally addressed here (i.e., a flat economy, although I thought that analysis somewhat flawed even prior to the OPEC story).

Founder of the House of Saud. Who would have guessed that the Saudi kingdom would prove so critical to the economy of a Rocky Mountain state?

Unemployment isn't increasing, and employment isn't increasing in the state either.  A state employee terms it the "new normal".

Except, it's flat in part because of construction jobs.

And those jobs have been a largely fueled by school construction.

 
 A series of major school construction projects has been keeping the state's unemployment figures from rising.  They won't go on forever.

Which is provided for by coal severance taxes, a dropping revenue.

And by tourism. Tourism is apparently up.  Which isn't surprising really, as with fuel prices in the basement, we should see more traveling, although apparently there  hasn't been much of an increase in fuel consumption nationally.  However, with gasoline now down below $2.00/gallon, we'll see if that holds.

$2.00 per gallon, by the way, is something I was frankly stunned to see.

Now, in the week or so that I've delayed on this story, I've actually seen gasoline at $1.87.  It'd dropping like a rock.

And I'm going on record right now that its my prediction that we'll see it go as low as $1.00 in the next two years.

Even as it is, right now, in real terms, it has to be as low as its ever been, and I'd think that should make air travel and ground travel much cheaper. We oddly haven't been seeing an increase in fuel consumption as the price first stabilized, and then fell, but I'm guess that we will now somewhat.  Or at least it'll begin to have a nationwide deflationary effect which will make the American dollar much stronger and create a real rise in earning power in everyone's bank accounts.  Unless, of course, you were working in a state, like I am, where we depend on the coal and petroleum industries for our economy.

Anyhow, this news time line is very familiar to those of us who lived through the early 1980s here. As before, there was denial, as in "this is only temporary", which ultimately yields to "oh, it won't be that bad", and followed by where we now are, which is "tourism will save us".

Tourism is important to the local economy, but it has problems as a n economic sector, not the least of which is that the wages it generates tend to be low. An added problem, rarely addressed, is that tourism and the mineral industry can be at odds which each other, at least to some degree. And the fact that the mineral industry is the high paying end of the economy makes quite a difference in the local impact of the various types of employment.

 
World War Two era poster discouraging vacation travel.  We're in the opposite position.

That the boom would end was something that those with a sense of history always knew.  A belief was out there that it was going to last decades, but that has never proven to be the case. What is unusual, however, is that the end of this boom was caused by a pricing determination from overseas, with Saudi Arabia seeking to keep its market share.  A boom had been fueled by OPEC oil policies in the past, but never a bust.  Whether the Saudi gamble will pay off for them isn't yet know, so the ultimately impact on the local economy isn't either.  But it is scary.

Petroleum and coal, it should be noted, have been part of the state's economic engine since the 1890s, but agriculture was the main sector of the economy for over half the 20th Century.  Petroleum only took that place in the 1960s.  This is significant as agriculture has actually lead the economic boom in some US states, and its proven to be an industry that not only has remarkable staying power, but staying power in a modern economy.  But it's really dwindled as a sector of the Wyoming economy in recent decades, all while remaining the romantic sector of the state's image.  In some ways, agriculture is really the reason for our tourism industry, whether that's realized or not, as range cattle production is the reason for the range being what it is.  That's something that the state should remember, and perhaps taking a second look at agriculture and what it can, and does, for the state, should be done.  It certainly can play a bigger role than it currently does, and its proven to have real staying power.

 
The cow, fabled in our cultural story, but often undersold in the post World War Two economic story of the state. Time to consider agriculture's position once again?

Sunday, December 6, 2015

And the oil price war goes nuclear. . . or maybe solar.

Given that so much attention has been focused on other things, many may have missed that Friday OPEC, lead by Saudi Arabia, failed to set caps on oil production by it members.

We are now in an uncontrolled oil market for the first time since the early 1970s, and the production trend is up. I wrote earlier on the Saudi boost on production, and what it might be about, but what seems fairly clear now is that part of it was designed to put a stop to increased US and Russian production.  The Saudi effort did at least slow the upward US trend but it didn't return Saudi market share to the pre US boom level and US production, if not exploration, has remained surprisingly high.  The Saudis may simply have missed their chance to achieve their goal without it taking a long time, and without it ultimately being pretty costly. 

 Prices have been going down, and given this development, they're going to keep going down. My guess is that they could go down quite a bit.  I saw gasoline for sale for $1.87 today for the first time in years. It's hard to imagine. This has to start having some sort of deflationary effect on prices in general at some point.  And its  hard to imagine that it doesn't result in an increase in domestic consumption, although this doesn't really seem to be occurring.

Indeed, the question would seem to be now if we are about to enter a deflationary period. We haven't, but with this particular cost going down, some impact has to occur.  It will not stand to be a disastrous one, like the deflationary period of the Great Depression, and in fact it would appear that except for the US energy sector, it will likely be a positive one for most of the world's economy, assuming that the price continues to go down or that it stabilizes.  It will be hard, however, on the US energy industry, although the irony is that with so much new production in North America having done on line, the US now has the ability basically to absorb increases in price which in turn might keep the Saudis from allowing that to occur.

Some energy analysts have been claiming that we're now in a new environment in terms of oil production. This seems to be becoming very much the case.  The Saudis are maintaining a dedicated effort to keep their share of the world market, but at a great loss to themselves.  Global production has reached the point where they don't have much choice, if that's what they want to do.

Wednesday, November 18, 2015

Understanding Saudi Arabia

The first thing to understand about Saudi Arabia is that the name does sort of tell all.  It's the Arabia owned by the Sauds.  Or rather that part of the Arabian Peninsula, i.e., most of it, that is controlled by the House of Saud.  And the Sauds are a family.

 King Abdulaziz ibn Abdul Rahman ibn Faisal ibn Turki ibn Abdullah ibn Muhammad Al Saud, the first king of modern Saudi Arabia, circa 1927.  Saud united a small kingdom to re-expand it to regions that his family had controlled centuries earlier.

The Arabian peninsula, as the name would indicate, has been the home of the Arab people since ancient times.  The Arabs were definable as such well before they came to be identified with Islam and indeed at the time of the rise of Mohammad.  Indeed at the time of Mohammad's rise the Arabs practiced a variety of religions, including Catholicism, Gnostic Christianity, Judaism and various animist religions.  They were not a united people by any means, which played into Mohammad's favor as he sought to unite them by force, where necessary.  The peninsula, while it would become Islamic, did not tend to be united however, although there were occasional exceptions of a type.

Prior to World War One there were various fiefdoms stretching back for centuries that controlled various areas of the Arabian Peninsula, which by the early 20th Century all claimed fealty to the Ottoman Empire, which itself was ruled by a claimed Caliph. The various tribal chieftains, sultans and kings did not always get along by any means and never had.  And within the peninsula various tribes contested for areas and territories.  Going into World War One arguably the most significant of these groups were the Hashimites, monarchs who ruled from Mecca, who threw in the with the British in an effort to expel the Turks and claim monarchical control over the Arabs.  

At the same time and earlier, however, the House of Saud, had been working on consolidating its power through marriage and through allegiance to an extreme puritanical form of Islam, Wahhabism.  Just prior to the Great War the Sauds took a portion of the Persian Gulf Coast from the Ottoman Turks, a bold move under the circumstances.  Following that, however, the  Sauds basically sat World War One out, in spite of sponsorship from English India, and they concentrated on a contest with the El Rashid, who controlled part of the peninsula to their north. They prevailed in that struggle in the early 1920s.   Following that, the Sauds conquered the Hejaz, effectively expelling the Hashimites from their traditional kingdom.

 King ‘Alī ibn al-Ḥusayn ibn ‘Alī al-Hāshimī, the last Hashimite King of the Hajaz and therefore the last non Saudi ruler of Mecca.  King Ali could have claimed the tile of Caliph by inheritance, but did not do so.

 Ikhwan, circa 1910.

Throughout this expansionist period the Sauds relied upon the Ikhwan, a Wahhabi militia. This cannot be overemphasized as the Ikhawan was a puritanical Islamic militia, conceived of by Islamic clerics who found elements of Bedouin life to be incompatible with Islam.  The relationship between the Ikhwan and the Sauds was not perfect, as the Ikhwan rebelled against the Sauds in part on at least two occasions, but overall the Sauds expansion was allowed due to their alliance with this hardcore Islamic militia, a group found around principals so strict that some Muslims regarded them as heretical early on.

Following the conquering of the Arabian Peninsula, outside of Yemen, the Ikhwan turned its attention to Transjordan, which lead to a conflict with the Sauds who feared that taking on the Jordanian Hashimite kingdom wold lead to combat with the British. This caused the Sauds to put the Ikhwan down, although it lives on to a degree in the form of the Saudi National Guard.  

The black flag of the Ikhwan, note the similarity to. . . 

the green flag of Saudi Arabia.

Following the defeat of the Ikhwan, the Sauds had possession of a dirt poor personal kingdom, but one which included the important city of Mecca, which they had dispossessed the Hashimites of.  To the extent it formed a consolation, the Hashimites possessed the wealthier kingdoms of Transjordan, Syria and Iraq, none of which they were native to.

In 1938 oil was discovered in the country, however, and it became the base of the economy, as well as making it one of the richest and most economically powerful countries in the world.  Almost half of its population now is foreign born, with Egyptians and Muslim Filipinos amongst the most significant aspect of the foreign population.  The country has struggled with Islamic fundamentalist, and essentially it has since the 1920s, even though its foundation is in  Wahhabism. The Country is, therefore, awash in ironies. As a modern country, it's an absolute monarchy.  It has struggled with Islamic fundamentalism, and yet it is essentially a fundamentalist state which is the only one in the world, expect perhaps arguably the Islamic State, to have made the Koran its constitution.  The monarch is subject only to Sharia law.  It funds mosques in the western world, but only those that comport with a Wahhabi theological view.

Well, so what, you may ask?

A kingdom is an odd anachronism in the modern world, particularly one that is loosely based as Saudi Arabia is.  Its Wahhabi roots remain very strong and its a puritanical state, of a type, that is influential if for no other reason than that its fantastically wealthy.  The country is stunningly repressive, not even allowing women to drive.  It bizarrely has the chair position of the United Nations Human Rights Commission presently, a really bizarre thing to realize when basic human rights are missing in the country.  Don't even think about freedom of religion in regards to that nation.  

And something about it has spawned Islamic terrorists, although what that is, is not clear.  Osama bin Laden was a Saudi Arabian, with Yemeni roots.  Saudis were prominent in the 9/11 attackers.  

It was a country born out of tribal strife but united by Islamic extremist militias that it had to put down itself, but which it has remained close to in terms of origin.  With an unstable system of government in a region in which Islamic militancy has exploded, its fate is worrisome.

Postscript:

From an article in today's New York Times:
Daesh has a mother: the invasion of Iraq. But it also has a father: Saudi Arabia and its religious-industrial complex. Until that point is understood, battles may be won, but the war will be lost. Jihadists will be killed, only to be reborn again in future generations and raised on the same books.

Sunday, September 6, 2015

Lex Anteinternet: Dealing with the Red Horse

Lex Anteinternet: Dealing with the Red Horse: A momentous and tragic event is unfolding in Europe. Hundreds of thousands of refugees are attempting to make their way from the Middle Ea...
Pope Francis proposed today that every Catholic parish in Europe, over 130,000, take in a refugee family.  This sort of dovetails on my suggestion in this above that this is a global problem, and this would certainly be a start.

The solution for the refugees needs to be global, in my view.  That would include, I'd note, Middle Eastern countries of wealth, of which there are several. Saudi Arabia has a huge non Saudi population as it is (there's been some speculation that it may rival the number of Saudi citizens, and surely  they could help monetarily, and probably territoriality.

Beyond that, these wars are real wars, involving serious expenditures of cash to keep going.  Somebody is providing that, and should stop.  Where it's locally generated, that should be targeted. And its time for an international solution to some of this in terms of addressing the combatants.

Sunday, August 30, 2015

Lex Anteinternet: Lex Anteinternet: Lex Anteinternet: And the band p...

Lex Anteinternet: Lex Anteinternet: Lex Anteinternet: And the band p...: Today the price of oil actually declined below $40/bbl.  This is probably temporary, but how amazing.
And indeed it did prove to be temporary, but perhaps signalling how down in the dumps and perhaps permanent these price depressions may be (as in economic permanent, that is long term), a jump in the price to $45-$47/bbl was due to Saudi Arabia sending troops into northern Yemen in order to keep rebels there from consolidating their forces.  So it's regional instability in the Middle East, with a major oil producer, i.e., the one keeping the price low, that's caused the price to jump.

On the other hand, it turns out that Ecuador has been producing  oil below its cost.  It's oil has been selling for $30/bbl, and they only break even at $39/bbl.  Its crazy for them to sell it at that cost, but there must be some internal economic reason for them to keep selling it at a lost.  In most real free markets, they'd shut their wells in.  Perhaps they will, and indeed, they'll have to, resulting in taking that oil off the market for a time.

Tuesday, March 24, 2015

Lex Anteinternet: And the pumps kept on.



And following on this:
Lex Anteinternet: And the pumps kept on.: Saudi production has reached 10,000,000 bbl per day, near (or perhaps) an all time record high.  This comes in the face of Saudi resistance ...
I read in the paper this morning that the solar panel industry now employers more people in the US than coal mining.

Indeed, an irony of this is that there's now an effort in some states to tax homeowners who install solar panels, using the logic that they use power on the grid when they cannot generate power on cloudy days. While that's generally true, the law has generally been, or at least was (I haven't kept up on it) that power companies actually had to buy power sent back down the line by domestic solar and wind electrical generation.  This has likely been regarded as a minor inconvenience by power companies for a long time, but now they're becoming irritated in some areas, apparently.

Irrespective of that, solar has quietly come a long way in the past 40 years.  40% of German electrical output is now solar (and if they'd continued to allow nuclear power generation, they'd have darned near 100% non emitting power).  There's no reason to believe that a high American output isn't similarly possible, and perhaps now even probable.

All of this is hugely important to the state of Wyoming, and of course other energy producing states.  With an oil industry that dates back to the 1890s and a coal industry that started when the Union Pacific was first constructed, the state has acclimated itself to the extractive energy industry being the main economic engine of the state.  Coal severance taxes, which were at first stoutly opposed by some, have been funding the state government here for over 40 years now.  The schools are nearly entirely constructed using money generated from taxes on coal.  Coal production has been declining now for several years, and the coal industry's backers have been quite vocal about what they feel should be done to aid the industry, and that it can generate "clean coal".  But the long term trends seem hard to ignore at present.  Coal is being supplemented in the U.S. as a fuel, in Europe its being supplanted.  The trend line in the US seems headed in the same direction unless major technological developments can change the dynamics of the situation.  The coal market right now seems to be mostly China, but Pacific coast states and provinces object to the loading of it, and transportation of coal by sea has its own costs and problems.  So, in spite of hopes in that quarter, and in spite of efforts by Wyoming's politicians in that direction, the Chinese saving the market seems unlikely.

And, as explored here earlier, it seems difficult not to conclude at this point that the Saudi Arabians have made a similar conclusion about future of petroleum oil, and have decided to keep the price on the floor so that they dominate the market during what they have calculated will be the transition phase.  Probably calculating that the beginning of a technological transition from petroleum has commenced and that the process will take about the same amount of time one way or another, by keeping the price low, they'll dominate it during that period of time.  In other words, the money is going to go somewhere, and it might as well go to them.  By keeping the production high, and selling what they'll have, they'll make the most money possible out of their resource and probably try to use that to transition to some other type of economy.  Goodness, knows they need to, as their current culture and economy isn't viable continuing on with its current model.

But for states like Wyoming, which have relied on these industries, the trend line is a bad one for the traditional economy.  Agriculture, Extractive industries, and Tourism have been the three legs of the stool of Wyoming's economy.  There's a pretty good chance that one of those legs is now broken, and there's no really solid idea of what to do to replace it, if it needs to be.

As a final observation, folks who note things like this here are often branded as "antis".  However, as a Wyoming native, and a former crewman on a workover rig, and as a person with a geology degree, I think I can stand on my bonafides.  I'm not declaring this as part of a manifesto, but rather observing as a person given to that by training and inclination.  We probably need to be pondering these topics here.

Monday, March 23, 2015

And the pumps kept on.

Saudi production has reached 10,000,000 bbl per day, near (or perhaps) an all time record high.  This comes in the face of Saudi resistance to pressure to decrease production.

Accompanying, this Chinese economy, long seen as a potential major oil importer, has been slowing down over the past 11 months.

Neither of which is a good sign for American oil production.  Hovering in the $50 to $60 bbl range for months now, a decrease in the Saudi price and a maintenance of Saudi production can't help but be noticed by the domestic industry's planners.

Friday, January 9, 2015

Islamic Violence, Islamic Silence and Western Relativism

This past week the world has been witness to another outrage committed by those who claim devotion to Islam.  If this event were unique, a person could discount it as not really having a basis in Islam in some fashion, but as its far from unique, a person can't and shouldn't.

Over the past couple of years alone we've seen Moslems blow up a bomb during the Boston Marathon, kill French cartoonist and magazine staffers, murder a British soldier in his home country in the street, attack the Canadian parliament, and wage a war combined with barbarity in Iraq and Syria.  Each time this occurs, people in the west, indeed people in much of the world, are told that we are not to assume that this means such actions accurately reflect any tenants of Islam.  Indeed, a White House spokesman was quoted in The Weekly Standard as saying this past Thursday:
There are some individuals that are using a peaceful religion and grossly distorting it, and trying to use its tenets to inspire people around the globe to carry out acts of violence. And we have enjoyed significant success in enlisting leaders in the Muslim community, like I said, both in the United States and around the world to condemn that kind of messaging, to condemn those efforts to radicalize individuals, and to be clear about what the tenets of Islamactually [sic] are. And we’re going to redouble those efforts in the days and weeks ahead.
That's all well and good, but a statement by the U.S. Presidency to this effect has exactly zero effect as a statement on behalf of Islam, influencing Moslems, or really doing anything at all.  Something like this would mean something if it came from a really influential Moslem cleric, but it does not, at least in so far as this statement is concerned.  So, does this accurately reflect real Islam, or not, or can these acts be squared with Islam, or not?

Well, maybe they do not, maybe these people are nutty outliers (I suspect at least some of them clearly are, if not outright mentally disturbed) but unfortunately maybe they do, at least to some Moslems.  Indeed, a recent poll of Saudis found that over 90% view ISIL's actions as consistent with Islamic tenants.  Now, a person has to be careful about that, as consistent with, and mandated by, are two completely different things.  Indeed, its completely possible for a person to abhor something in a faith, while being a loyal member of it, but while also regarding that thing as "consistent with" the faith.  So, I don't take that to mean that Saudis all are supporting ISIL by any means.

But all of these things together, combined with a poll figure like that, should tell us something. And the general, or at least apparent, silence up until quite recently of Islamic leaders who count when these things occur means even more.

Generally, the people who are quick to assert that "Islam is a religion of peace" aren't Moslem, and in fact, Islam really isn't a religion of peace consistently in regards to non Moslems.  The founding document of Islam, the Koran, isn't consistently peaceful by any means.  Nor does it recognize a separation between religious and civil government.  As Christians well know, Christ instructed his followers to "render until Caesar things which are Caesar's" but Mohamed, who of course rejected Christ's divinity (although in actuality may have been more of a Gnostic in reality, rather than as he was later remembered and quoted), left no such instruction.  For that reason, early Islam featured a unified government for its adherents, and that government waged war against its neighbors.

This early history, and the foundation of the religion, is extremely important in this context.  From the outside, when observed in a historical context, the origins of Islam can be and are debated, but a long held school of thought which still holds much historical weight would place very early Islam in the category of Gnosticism but advanced by a very charismatic leader.  That early Islam probably didn't really hold all of the same tenants of the current one, but it did fight its neighbors, sometimes with Christian allies even in Mohammed's time (which again would tend to suggest that early on it was actually a species of Gnosticism, rather than a new religion).  The Koran itself, to non Moslem students, seems to have been written in an evolutionary fashion, with earlier portions being less aggressive than later, perhaps reflecting the evolution in conditions on the ground that Mohamed and his followers were facing. 

Of course, to almost all Moslems, and certainly to any adherent Moslem, this view is all wrong and they would argue that the Koran is the word of God, and that's the way it is. And for Moslems, therefore, the violent portions of the Koran cannot be ignored as Moslems have to deal with them in some fashion.

But they can be interpreted differently, and there are those who have argued that they should be.  Particularly recently.  Indeed, a major Egyptian figure is arguing that this be done right now, and there have been Moslem clerics also arguing the same, recently.

That modern conditions aren't exactly the same ones that Mohamed faced in his lifetime are pretty obvious, and that humans have largely evolved past the point where every national difference must  be solved by violence or warfare, if that was ever really the case, are gone.  Indeed, the world is becoming more peaceful, not less, so this violence stands out more and more as an aberration.  But it doesn't seem to be an aberration in Islamic terms.

And it won't seem to be until that point at which most Moslems make it clear that they not only aren't resorting to the gun, but that they don't approve of it being done.  And so far, that really hasn't been the case.  Much like peaceful Communists, or the hard right, in the 1920s and 30s in Europe, people tend to wink or be silent in the face of violence committed by those they agree with on other issues, and that truly ended badly. The time has really come for Moslems in Europe and the United States to take a stand, one way or the other, and hopefully against violence.  Not until they take that brave act will this trend abate.  Of course, doing that is made doubly difficult now, as for anyone to do it in this climate they risk being branded a traitor or heretic by those who support a violent view, and beyond that there's no recognized central authority in Islam and hasn't been since the original Caliphate fell apart many centuries ago.  Indeed, the only body really claiming the the title of central authority is ISIL, and even thought the overwhelming majority of Moslems don't recognize that claim, at the same time there's no other central authority and there doesn't appear to be any way for one to be recognized in the present age.  And so, almost by its very nature, its really difficult for any Moslem leader to have a voice, unless he's very much in the global news, and that only tends to be nobody at all. So even when Moslem clerics do decry violence, and they sometimes do, it's almost never heard by anyone, even when they do occupy a position of respected authority.

That is particularly problematic, as with no central authority, there's no vehicle for reformation or interpretation that is really controlling.  Indeed, the complete lack of a central authority really makes Islam unique, as almost every other faith has one.  Even highly fractionated Christianity has that in that the various denominations do, and even though some would be reluctant to admit it, the ancient structure of the Catholic and Orthodox world is looked on for guidance by everyone.

So we face a crisis of collision of cultures in a way that we have not for some time, with an absolute need for a group now highly associated with violence to declare against it, with no easy way in which for them to accomplish that.  But they really need to.

Assuming we aren't too late now.  We've been near a tipping point in Europe for awhile, and now that we've seen this in France, a nation that has a long and complicated, and not always peaceful history, with Islamic residents, things are going to get much worse in terms of the political climate in Europe, or at least they could.  The time, therefore, for a large and effective Moslem declaration that this isn't what they support is here now.  Assuming, of course, that they really truly do, as a group, abhor such actions.  If they do, they should make that loudly plain now.

But at the same time, we should also take note, contrary to the claims of some, that the story of Islam in the West isn't really one solely of immigration, but also one of conversion.  There's a lesson to be learned here as well.  Islam is filling a void in the west left by something, and that something may be the demise of clear religious and philosophical sets of purposes.  

What exactly has occurred here remains unclear, and is still an evolving story, but as late as World War Two it was still the case that a large majority of Europeans adhered to at least some world view based on Christianity or, if not, social justice in a concrete sense.  Not all of the political movements were admirable by any means, but most people did have a sense of the greater and lesser, and the founding central focuses of those views was pretty concrete. This has tended towards collapse in recent years leading towards an increasing view of absolute relativism on everything. As a result, Europeans have been shocked with cultures that have not taken this path collide with them, as they increasingly are, and not just in regards to Islam, but also to Europe's giant eastern neighbor.  

And relativism turns out not to be a satisfying philosophical concept for anyone. As the "everything is equal" and "all conduct is okay as long as it doesn't hurt anyone" ethos has crept in, human desire to find meaning in something, anything, other than money, has likewise increased.  Ironically, at the same time, central institutions of all type have increasingly adopted relativism as their more or less official positions. As traditional European institutions or institutions that were traditionally strong in the west have weakened, many have been aimless and others have turned towards those institutions that have their base in distant lands, but which seem more absolute.

As official positions, relativistic institutions don't work, particularly on anything founded on a strong thesis. This doesn't mean that a person must agree with one particular thing or another, but it does mean that institutions shouldn't hide their basic concepts or dilute them to the point that they're nearly meaningless.

For when they do, there is always something left to fill that vacuum.  And in an age when many of the Christian religions in Europe have diluted their faith to the point that it isn't very recognizable, and when many social and political institutions seem mainly focused on what the best way for an economy to make money is, those who are looking for something to give their lives meaning have to look pretty far.  And for some of them, that will be Islam, as whether a person agrees with it or not, Islam seems to know what it believes.  Countering a strong belief with the ethos of "it's nice to be nice to the nice and everyone is nice" isn't going to cut it with people who are searching.  Indeed, it  really doesn't cut it with anyone.

So we've reached this point.  And its a bad one.  Maybe its time for those who have a foundation in something to declare what it is, and for those who have a foundation in something that others feel licenses violence, when they feel otherwise, to state that.

Postscript

Of note here, and of interest, a fair number of newspapers in the Middle East have, in fact, run cartoons from their cartoonist decrying the terrorists' acts.

That's a brave thing to do, given where they are from, and  its exactly the type of reaction from that quarter that's needed here.

Postscript II

And there was indeed a good turn out for the March in Paris, which did indeed include some significant Moslem figures, including clerics and King Abdullah of Jordan.

So, perhaps things have turned a corner.

Postscript III

For the first time, I've heard a really good explanation, but a noted religion writer, on the topic of this type of violence and Islam.

Of note, according to this author, who seemed very well informed indeed, such violence is in fact not sanctioned by Islam, even if Islam's history and texts have some violent aspects. A partial reason is that there's no authority that has authorized it, which can authorize it.  Indeed, there would appear to be no authority which can in fact authorize it.

Additionally, it appears that the violence has in fact turned off a large segment of the Islamic population everywhere, to such an extent in fact that the religion is loosing a significant number of adherents in some areas, including Iran, where those abandoning the faith are either completely abandoning any faith, or are converting to Christianity.