Showing posts with label Ok Boomer. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ok Boomer. Show all posts

Tuesday, September 13, 2022

Wasn't there anyone else available?

Ah geez. . . 

Biden's White House event celebrating the "Inflation Reduction Act" is beginning with a performance by James Taylor of "Fire and Rain"
115.9K views
0:10 / 0:14

The ultimate boomer act.

Politics completely aside, does anyone actually like the music of James Taylor?

I thought not.

A lot of people claim to, but nobody actually does.

M'eh.

Friday, February 4, 2022

2022 Wyoming Legislative Session. Part III. Okay, Boomer.

 

And yes, the phrase came from a legislature, albeit not ours.

A bill.

HOUSE JOINT RESOLUTION NO. HJ0001

 

 

Supreme court justices and district judges-retirement.

 

Sponsored by: Joint Judiciary Interim Committee

 

 

A JOINT RESOLUTION

 

for

 

A JOINT RESOLUTION proposing to amend the Wyoming Constitution by amending the retirement age requirements for Wyoming supreme court justices and district court judges.

 

BE IT RESOLVED BY THE LEGISLATURE OF THE STATE OF WYOMING, two-thirds of all the members of the two houses, voting separately, concurring therein:

 

Section 1.  The following proposal to amend the Wyoming Constitution, Article 5, Section 5 is proposed for submission to the electors of the State of Wyoming at the next general election for approval or rejection to become valid as a part of the Constitution if ratified by a majority of the electors at the election:

 

Article 5, Section 5.  Voluntary retirement and compensation of justices and judges.

 

Subject to the further provisions of this section, the legislature shall provide for the voluntary retirement and compensation of justices and judges of the supreme court and district courts, and may do so for any other courts, on account of length of service, age and disability, and for their reassignment to active duty where and when needed. The office of every such justice and judge shall become vacant when the incumbent reaches the age of seventy (70) seventy-five (75) years, as the legislature may prescribe.; but, in the case of an incumbent whose term of office includes the effective date of this amendment, this provision shall not prevent him from serving the remainder of said term nor be applicable to him before his period or periods of judicial service shall have reached a total of six (6) years. The legislature may also provide for benefits for dependents of justices and judges.

 

Section 2.  That the Secretary of State shall endorse the following statement on the proposed amendment:

 

Currently, the Wyoming Constitution requires Wyoming Supreme Court justices and district court judges to retire upon reaching the age of seventy (70). This amendment increases the mandatory retirement age of Supreme Court justices and district court judges from age seventy (70) to age seventy-five (75).

 

The Constitution also currently provides an exception to the mandatory requirement to retire upon reaching age seventy (70) for justices and judges who had not yet completed six (6) years of judicial service as of December 12, 1972. The proposed amendment would remove the now-obsolete six (6) year service guarantee.

Seriously?

At some point, why don't we just declare the Boomer Generation the only one that is qualified to run the government, the courts, and industry, so that they can have unchallenged control of absolutely everything until the last one passes at age 120.

Why does American Society hate youth with such burning passion?

This has already reached the absurd level. The retirement age in our society, for positions such as this, shouldn't be moved up.

It ought to be moved down.

Give the youngsters a break, man.

Tuesday, September 21, 2021

La Ancien Régime

It's not like this column has the readership of one by George F. Will or something where I need to worry, really, about its presentation, but I'll note that this is one of a couple of posts I've brought in and out of the Zeitgeist thread and have ended up posting it as a single thread, because of its nature, I guess.

I have a recent thread on our Monday At The Bar series about a bill that would raise judicial retirement ages.  I'm against that.  I'm pretty convinced, by this point in time, that such thoughts are a byproduct of two or three things operating in American society, one being the weird American belief that everyone is going to grow old with their body's and minds fully intact.  Americans want to believe that everyone is 20 years old, right up to the moment they die at age 120.

The other is the Baby Boom generation's refusal to let go. The same generation that didn't want to trust anyone over 30, when they weren't 30, now doesn't want to trust anyone under 60.

Which brings me to this.

During the last election, there was a Republican undercurrent that Joe Biden was either senile or approaching senility, a highly ironic position given that there were many who suspected that nearly as old Donald Trump wasn't right mentally himself.  Indeed, both men have been highly studied, although on the back burner, by their opposing camps and both of those camps have the ability to argue that the opposing figure just isn't who he used to be.

Whether or not that's correct we are at a point where the evidence is now really in.  The nation really has to turn the leadership of. . . everything over to younger people.  

Joe Biden's Presidency so far has been a complete mess.  Starting off with real hope in some quarters, things are now off the rails in all sorts of ways.  Trump and Biden combined, and it was both of them, operated to make the withdrawal from Afghanistan a complete route, wasting decades of American effort in a retreat that will forever be remembered for how badly it was done.  Trump's meandering in the early part of the Coronavirus Pandemic, which was somewhat understandable at first but which turned into a bizarre "look at me not wearing a mask" series of photo ops has left Biden with a gigantic public health mess which he now needs to address, but the messaging has been very bad on it.  Biden needs to win the inevitable court challenges on his new OSHA mask policy, and get it enforced, or he will look hopelessly weak and that will fuel the left/right divide that's wrecking the country.

Trump took a lot of criticism for his very aggressive border policy but Biden's reaction, started when he was still a candidate, was a muddled open the border policy, no matter what he might claim about that now, which is swamping the border and leading to a giant humanitarian crisis.  If Biden didn't want to be as rigid and aggressive as Trump, he didn't have to be, but his counter policy was going to create a disaster, and it did.

Legislatively, the Administration has taken a strong economy, which was damaged by the pandemic, and inserted inflation into it but will not yield in a way that will address that, leaving trying to get some order into things in the hands of a single Senator  Much of this is in order to attempt to bring in a set of policy goals which are his right to back, as he's the President, but it's all happened too slow to really effectuate them.

So the point?

Well, this.  This administration is really close to dissolving into complete ineffectiveness.   Biden may turn out to be a gift to Republicans the way that Jimmy Carter was.  But only if the GOP gets over their own  old man.

Which brings us to the second point.  We're now on year five of administration by really old men, one a populist who had no prior government experience and who was scary from time to time, and one a neo left-winger who is ineffectual.

Theodore Roosevelt was 42 years old when he became President.  Franklin Roosevelt was 51.  Ronald Reagan, who seemed ancient at the time, was 69.  Most Presidents have been in their 50s when they took office.

There's a reason for that.

It's only in the last decade, as baby boomers reached their 70s, that a cult of antiquity took over the nation's politics at the highest level.  Since then, it's extended into everything, and the legislature is about to ask the people of Wyoming to amend the constitution to extend it to the bench.

The opposite should be occurring.

Funny thing is, Americans are now acclimated to this.  I mentioned this to a colleague the other day, and specifically referenced Sanna Marin, the 35-year-old Prime Minister of Finland. The colleague was shocked, demeaned Finland as an irrelevant country, and then went on to say that a President needed "some experience".

Experience relevant to the times, yes.

To another time. . . well not so much.

And to be mentally agile and capable as well.

Friday, September 3, 2021

Some recent legal observations

LSAT Baloney Sliced Thick


I don't pay much attention to Quora, and I don't know why anyone else does either.  A lot of the questions on it are stupid, quite frankly, and the answers can be as well.

In the latter category was a recent question from some poor soul along the lines of whether only studying for a couple of years for the Law School Admissions Test was too little. Some law prof came in and said yes, and not only that, but that you had to have been studying for it basically since grade school.

Bullshit.

I didn't study for it at all and scored high on it.

I'm not the only one.  I heard of one instance in which a fellow took it (and didn't go to law school after being admitted) even though he didn't study and spent the prior night partying rather heavily.

Frankly, the test is supposed to test your ability to think logically.  If you don't have that, maybe you can train your mind to it, but studying for the test probably isn't the best way to do that.

Anyhow, study away.  Probably you should.  Most people seem to.  But you don't need to be doing it during recess at Public School 97.  

Of note, one of the Ivy League schools recently dropped the LSAT as an admissions requirement, and I don't blame them. When a test like this, which tests your mental process, is studied for, people are studying to defeat the test.  And they're probably accomplishing that to a large degree.  Hence, it no longer has any real meaning.

Out of Jurisdiction


I recently tried a case out of state.  I've done that once before, but that was in Federal court, not state court, and it was a trying experience in more ways than one. I've had other out of jurisdiction state court cases, but this is the first one that's gone all the way to trial.

One revelation was that the positions associated with the court are different, which surprises me.  Here, judges used to have a Judicial Law Clerk, who was a recent law school grad who served as a lawyer for the bench, and during trial a representative of the Clerk of the District Court always sits in the trial.  In quite a few courts the Judicial Law Clerk is now the Permanent Law Clerk, i.e. a lawyer for whom that is a career option.  A bailiff sits in the trial as well.

Where I was, however there was a "Clerk" during the trial.  We also had to hire our own court reporter.  There was no bailiff, the clerk sort of acted in that role.  On the last day, a representative of the Clerk of Court's office was there for the verdict.

I was sufficiently confused about it later that I looked the "Clerk" up, and it's clear that the clerk is a Judicial Law Clerk.  I don't know if it's a permanent position in that court or not.

It might be. The reason I note that is that in doing that I was surprised that the young lawyer had moved around in the lawyer's infant career a lot.  That lawyer has only been licensed for about two years (a little less) but had already clerked somewhere else, had been an associate with a large multi state law firm for a  year, and then had moved on to the court. 

That's remarkably different from when I was first a lawyer.  Lawyers who went on to be clerk's did it as a career move knowing that they'd occupy the position for only a year.  It was normally their very first job out of law school.  Very rarely did a practicing lawyer leave practice to become a clerk, although I do know of two who did that to become Federal clerks for a year.  There were no full time career clerks, which now are common.  Federal clerks are pretty much all career clerks, I think.  Those who entered private practice didn't leave it after just one year, and if they did leave their first jobs rapidly, it was because they went to work as public defenders and had planned on other employment to start with.

Differences in views towards employment and employers have been noted by older lawyers for quite a while, but in some ways this is something that's always the case.  When I was young, which seems like just yesterday but which is actually quite a while ago now, it was extremely common for the Baby Boomers to comment on how everyone below them in age had no work ethic and expected to move up the ladder as an entitlement.  I always thought this the height of irony coming form a generation which actually had an enormous sense of entitlement and which was actually given a massive amount of everything by their parents, whom had endured the Great Depression and World War Two and  who accordingly didn't really know, to a significant degree, what real life was actually like.  That generation, which Tom Brokaw mislabeled "the Greatest Generation" in his hagiography devoted to them, knew crisis and suffering and wanted their children to be spared that.  As a result, we got the generation that Donald Trump, Joe Biden, Nancy Pelosi, etc., are in that won't let go of anything.  They actually were allowed to skip entire rungs on the ladder, and then later on kept people from climbing up it, imaging that they'd pulled themselves up by their own bootstraps when, to a significant degree, their doting parents were there tying their shoe laces the entire time.

Clearly, I'm painting with a broad brush, and unfairly, and this doesn't apply to every member of the generation.

Anyhow, when the Millennials and the older Gen Y folks started to enter work, including the legal field, there really was something different about them.  The Gap Generation folks, like me, who fit in between Gen X and the Boomers pretty much felt we had to find a job and plug on.  It was our only option in life, really.  Gen Xers and older Gen Yers, like what is described about the generation that fought World War One (the "Lost Generation"). had much less job loyalty and pretty much took the view that they had to fend for themselves.  Boomers repeatedly accused them of being unrealistic and lazy, but they were neither. They were highly realistic and far from lazy, they just didn't have dog like loyalty to an employer master.  Indeed, they didn't really expect anything, including employment, to last.

Now, however, we're seeing the younger Gen Y and older Gen Z people in the workplace and their views truly are different, at least it seems to me.  Hardly any prior generation would have skipped through that many employers right off the bat, in the example of the Clerk, but I don't think that's uncommon.

I'm not sure what that means, but again, I don't think they're lazy at all.  I think their view towards work is much different, and they don't expect anything to really last, employment wise.  I don't know what their views are, as a whole, on much else.

While I find that rapid employment change a little distressing, as a now older lawyer who hopes that people will stick around, I think I get it a bit, and that their views may be much more realistic than the Boomers really.  Indeed, I think we're seeing a retrograde attachment to work that takes us back to prior generations over a century ago.  If the Gen Xers were like the Lost Generation, the current 20-year-olds in the law and everything else seem more like those workers from the 19th Century, whom you'll often find went through quite a few jobs in a course of a lifetime, or if they were professionals went through quite a few positions.

I hope some other trends reflect that as well. For one thing, I'm sick of the uber bloated massive law firms that have become a feature of American law.  The fact that younger lawyers bolt pretty readily should operate against that, as those firms depend upon a stable supply of sheep to be corralled to mow the grass of the company pasture.  If the sheep are wild, and take off, that sort of corralling can't occur.

Money, Time and Life


Related to this, I've recently had the odd experience of watching a person on the cusp of the Gap Generation, but from a different region of the country, try to reconcile his mental image of work with that of the reality of others views.  Said person isn't really accomplishing it.

This comes up in the context of said person speaking to a younger Gen Xer about that person's work, which is with a legal agency.  The older Xer treated the younger one's work as surely a stepping stone on to other work for "more money".  The younger person didn't see it that way at all.

Indeed, the younger person liked their job, which had relatively low stress, okay wages and really good hours.  He couldn't see whereas he was suffering, as the older one thought other work, in the private sphere, offered a "chance to make more money".

What was clear in the conversation is that  the older of the two viewed making more money as the be all and end all of any job.  That was the whole point, and the only point, of employment. . a chance to make more money. The younger one saw his job as a job and was content with that.

I'm seeing a lot of that with younger workers, particularly the younger Gen Xers and the Gen Yers.  Again, they're like the Lost Generation that way. They want to have a job, have a family of some sort (that hasn't completely returned to the Lost Generation view. . . yet), and to be able to enjoy life, often in a small way.  These younger folks feel that the ability to go fishing after work or watch a ball game is as important as the Dollar.

And they're right.

The March of Technology


I lasted tried a case in February, which was the first post pandemic trial I've done.  In that Wyoming bench trial, neither side used anything high-tech. The case just wasn't that suited for it, sort of, although there were photographic and text exhibits.

In this recent trial, however, all the exhibits were shown to the witnesses electronically and they were all published (shown) to the jury in the same fashion.  A technician attended the entire trial in order that this could be seamlessly accomplished.

The technician was fantastic and did a super job with pointing out the text and going through the electronic exhibits. While I've done a lot of trials, this was the first one I've ever done that was 100% high-tech in this fashion.

I'll admit that I've been skeptical, or perhaps just reluctant, to acknowledge the effectiveness of this, but it's now clearly here and that's the standard.

Like automatic transmissions being in everything, I guess I can accept reality, however, without liking it.  I don't like it.

But that's where we now are.

Going on and on

One thing that I really liked that the other jurisdiction did was to limit opening statements and to constrict voir dire (questioning of the jury).

Various Wyoming courts take different approaches to this.  Most ask the lawyers "how much time do you need for openings?" and then debate how much time will really be given.  I just had a proceeding in which that question was asked, and the plaintiff's lawyer said he needed 1.5 hours.

In the other jurisdiction the court simply informed us that we had 20 minutes.  No debate, you have 20 minutes.  And this was in a highly technical case.

I'm really good at public speaking, and frankly I was relieved.  Anything over 20 minutes is an exercise in hubris and boring the jury.  It might have been in the case at the time of the Gettysburg Address that people were ready for an hour-long speech, but that was in a day in which people had spent half the day getting there, were going back tomorrow, had no phones to check, and weren't getting back to their work right away, and weren't used to 30 minute television shows.  No modern audience is going to listen to an hour-long speech from anyone, let alone a lawyer.  Even if you have super wonderful graphics in which the entire accident is reenacted by Kate Upton and Billie Eilish with background music from Iris Dement are they going to do that.  Just forget it.

None of which keeps lawyers from asking for all kinds of time.  We're stuck in the past that way.

Suiting up

As a Wyoming lawyer, but a lawyer, I've watched the slow decline in clothing standards while participating in it.

At my first day of work in 1990 I reported to work wearing a double-breasted Brooks Brothers suit.  The first partner who came in was wearing wool khaki trousers and a blue blazer, and he was dressed down.  He told me that I didn't have to wear a suit every day.

For years and years, however, I normally wore a tie and clothing appropriate for a tie.  Then COVID 19 hit.

For much of the prior spike of the disease (we're in a spike now, of the unvaccinated, but of course the entire state disregarding that) I kept coming in the office.  I was often the only one there when we were at the point where the staff didn't have to come in.  I pretty much quit dressing in office dress at the time as there wasn't much of a reason to do it.  Nobody was coming in, I was there by myself, what the heck.

I've not made it back to normal, and not everyone else has either.

And of course normal in 2019 was not the same thing it was in 1999, or 2009.  We'd already slid down the dressing scale in the back of the office, where I am.  I never used to wear blue jeans in the office, but by 2019 I already was a fair amount.  Starting with COVID 19, I am all the time.

One of the things about that is that in 2019 I already had a selection of older dress clothes that were wearing out I hadn't replaced.  Probably the inevitability of their demise would have caused me to replace them on in to 2020.  But I didn't have to.  Additionally, the long gap in time meant that I pretty much didn't do anything about the fact I'm down to two suits now.

Two suits isn't much if you are a trial lawyer.

Well, running up to the trial I was going to go down to Denver and get new ones.  But I ran out of time.  I still haven't done it.

I need to.

I'll confess that part of my reluctance to get new suits is that I'm 58 years old.  I don't wear suits daily at work, and I'm not one of those guys who is going to claim "I'm going to work until I'm 80".  Any new suit I get now will still be in fighting shape when I'm 68, and that's reasonably enough, but to my cheap way of thinking, emphasized by the fact that I have two kids in college, its something that is both easy for me to put off, and in the back of my mind I tend to think "maybe I won't really need those if . . . "

Well, I probably better remedy that.

Saturday, February 27, 2021

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist Part 7. One more won't hurt me. . .

or so conservatives must think.

Senator Joseph McCarthy.  McCarthy was actually largely correct in his accusations, once you see what they really were, and who they were actually made against.  He very clearly had an inside connection with somebody with intelligence inside the government.  My guess is that it was J. Edgar Hoover.  At any rate, while he was correct, he became personally so distasteful that he permanently damaged his cause and even later books that have shown the validity of his accusations have failed to repair his reputation or that of his cause.  He was loved at the time, of course, until he wasn't. There's a lesson here.

Donald Trump has been invited to speak at CPAC in Orlando, this Sunday.

Why would they do this? This will confirm Democrats and Independents, and traditional Republicans, in their choice not to go with the GOP this year, further decrease its influence, and make it harder for those who hold populist views seriously without it looking like simply Trump worship.

People like Victor David Hanson like to speak of "Trump Derangement Syndrome". While that may be worth talking about, the fact is that Trump didn't win the popular vote by any measure either time he ran.  He's not a popular man with the majority of Americans and by inviting him, the issues that concern populist Republicans are being fused to Trump in a way that will guaranty their electoral decimation in upcoming elections.

This is a serious matter.  Populists do have a collection of valid concerns and valid points about them. But Trump's effort at overturning the election and failure to distance himself from extremist are tarring all of them and the entire movement with the same brush.  The tighter the grip Trump has on any section of the GOP, the less likely it is to win anything at the national level going forward, and the more likely that the result will be a permanent shift of the American political center to the left.

McCarthy may have been right about most of the things he was complaining about in the 1950s.  But he was easy to dislike and has become permanently disliked. There's a lesson from history here and we all know what happens to people who fail to listen to history.

Nonetheless, what is clear at this point is that the traditional conservative wing of the party is now in full retreat.  Mitch McConnell, who only a couple of weeks ago sounded like he wanted to have Trump arrested, has stated he'd vote for him if he ran in 2024.  And right now, quite frankly, it looks like such a run is really likely, something that even a few weeks ago would have been regarded as highly unlikely.  As it remains unlikely that Joe Biden will run again, that would likely pit Trump against Kamala Harris, if . . . 

Doesn't anyone notice how old these people are?

If, that is, Trump hasn't passed on simply due to old age, or become mentally feeble due to the same reason.  

It's bizarre to see how even at this late state of the Baby Boom generation, people remain seriously entrenched in the seeming view that only they can lead the nation.  A person would have had good reason to believe that Joe Biden would have been the last Boomer President.  Now, that's not all that certain, as nothing in this political climate is very certain.

Restricting Balloting.

There's a lot of GOP effort being expended to address, proponents claim, chances of "election fraud", even though there's next to none of it occurring.

In Wyoming, legislators have a couple of bills floating on  the topic.  Senators Barrasso and Lummis have signed on to a Federal bill that will fail which will basically prevent States from making the reforms they did to address the still ongoing Coronavirus Pandemic.  The law proposes to eliminate unmonitored ballot collection boxes (one of which I saw in Rawlins just last week) and to require states to send absentee ballots only to those requesting them.

This is another issue that will come to haunt the GOP. There's no evidence of widespread ballot fraud at all, and this plays into the Democratic claim that the Republicans are seeking to restrict the vote.  While this will play to the Trumpite base, it won't play to the traditional wing of the party, which is now simply leaving it.

XX Chromosomes and Scouting


The first group of female Eagle Scouts received that status this week.

First of all, that's great for this group of young women. Achieving Eagle Scout status is hard to do, and they deserve praise for their accomplishments.

But it's also sad in a way in that its a further erosion of, well dare we say it, manliness.

Girls can be girls, but boys can't really be boys anymore, even virtuous boys, which was what the Boy Scouts were all about originally.

Let's be honest.  Because human nature remains human nature no matter how woke some may be and wish for everything to be, there are fundamental differences between men and women, and boys and girls, at every level.  Scouting recognized that, and hence that's why there was a Boy Scouts and a Girl Scouts.

While I note that I'm not an adherent every time I cite them, and then I go on to cite them, Strauss and How, in their generational theory (there's a category link to it below) argue that the character of men is different in different cycles as a whole (not necessarily individually) due to the views of women in any particular period.  So, for a lack of a better way to illustrate it, in some eras women want a bunch of touchy feely wimps such as featured on This Is Us.  In others, they want Ethan Edwards from The Searchers.

This makes sense from a evolutionary biology prospective, as women's role in elemental societies is, well, more societal than men's.  But rather crudely, if you live in a society that's about to be attacked, you want guys who are capable of handling that.  If you live in one where there's no risk of being attacked, you might now want guys who are looking for fights.

There's a lot more to this than that, but we live in an oddly emasculating era which has superseded a highly masculine one.  If Strauss and How are right, generational succession goes from Hero, Artist Prophet to Nomad.  They also figure the categories of generations by years a bit more differently, which is to their credit, as they would have the Baby Boom Generation ending earlier than some others do.   You can read all about that elsewhere, but they also have a concept of cyclical crises and periods of stability that impact generations, with women generally being the cultural influencers that impact male character patterns, if not necessarily individual males, at any one time.

Okay, so what?

Well, we are living in a very female influenced era culturally.  One that has even seen the intrusion of women into roles that are not only traditionally male, but arguably biologically male, from an evolutionary biological prospective and even attacks on the concept of gender itself, biologically unsounds though that may be.  And part of what occurs, when this occurs, is that men, and before that boys, really have no refuge in which they can be just guys.

This doesn't mean there's some previous era in which everything in regard to male/female roles was perfectly defined, although in a lot of ways that changes much less than people like to imagine, and perceptions of change have more to do with economic changes in broad economies at any one time then the do with actual changes in cultural views.  And it doesn't mean that there should be some sort of strict segregation between boys and girls at all times. Indeed, at least in my view, strict segregation at the primary school level actually tends to encourage vices, and the societies that practice that usually see the results later on in men and women who never learned about the others in their formative years with resulting permanent impacts on their characters.

But it does mean that there ought to be at least some places where boys can go just to be boys, and to learn, well, many things.  And the same is true in the opposite direction for girls. And indeed, for girls, it still is.  There's been no male penetration into deeply female roles or organizations in any meaningful sense.  Find a boy in the Girl Scouts and chances are high that you are going to find an odd storty behind it, and one that is probably vested in that person's parents.

Find a girl in the Boy Scouts, or now just the Scouts, and what you'll find is high achieving girls.  You'll also soon fine less manly boys in the same organizations, which have been having troubles recently anyhow, and soon just fewer boys in general.  Some will remain, but they won't be the same group that would have been there otherwise, and those who are there, aren't going to learn the same lessons they would have otherwise.  Overall, everyone will suffer for that.*

They forgot what society they lived in


People like Mike Lindell, that is.

Lindell is the founder of the My Pillow company. I don't know anything about the pillows and not that much about Lindell, other than his personal story is really a classic rags to riches type tale.  

In the U.S., that's enough to cause people to love and hate you, which is something to keep in mind.  He's also a vocal Evangelical Christian, which also will draw praise while drawing some dislike as well.  None of that, however, is what he's now in trouble for.

Lindell has been sued by Dominion Voting which is sick and tired of its voting machines being slammed.  Lindell made claims that Dominion rigged the election for Joe Biden, a statement for which not only is there no evidence, it's demonstrably false.  Dominion is a business and they don't like their product being hammered by falsehoods, no deeply believed by those who are asserting those falsehoods.

People like Victor David Hanson like to talk about Trump Derangement Syndrome which they claim causes people on the left to be completely irrational about Donald Trump. An argument can be made that some of that did in fact exist during the Trump Administration, particularly early on. The problem is that the same term can also apply to Trump's diehard supporters.

One of the things about Trump is, quite frankly, that while he had real accomplishments he has major character defects.  He's boorish, crude, and has had a history of questionable behavior with women.  He's also a prima donna and narcissist who simply can't stand the thought of public criticism or losing.  

In normal US politics that would doom a person, but it didn't with Trump.  A lot of his base supporters originally didn't care about any of that as long as he acted as a wrecker.  Over time, he's developed a personality cult that nearly worships him, in spite of all of his obvious faults.  People in that category suffer from Trump Derangement Syndrome as well as they can't be objective at all about Trump.

This doesn't apply to every Trump supporter by any means.  But it applies to some.  Guys like Lindell and Patrick Coffin seem to have simply fallen off the reality wagon and are willing to endorse all sorts of conspiracy theories about one thing or another.  Coffin, who used to be an objective conservative religious voice now hosts people who see Bill Gates conspiring to create a pandemic in order to create a new world order.  Lindell boosted the Dominion nonsense.  

Lindell is now one of several figures getting sued by Dominion. Dominion no doubt doesn't hope to be reimbursed by them for their losses, whatever those may be, but is out to repair its reputation through litigation. The litigation will achieve that.

Dopey New Jersey


The Garden State has legalized weed.  Because that's what people in New Jersey really need to be, stoned.

Not that New Jersey is by any means alone in this, to be sure.  It's just following the pack.  

It does say something that in early 21st Century America, however, one of the biggest movements of the day is one that allows people to be oblivious.

Exit Franco

Francisco and Ramon Franco, 1925, in North Africa.

A statute honoring Francisco Franco's role as a commander in the Rif War, put up in 1978 was taken down this past week.  Apparently it was the last one, which is remarkable in part as it was put up in the 1970s.

Franco had his supporters in Spain during his long dictatorship, as well as his supporters elsewhere.  All that now seems definitively in the past.  Having said that, this has been a strange trip.  Franco had his supporters in the west during the civil war period that proceeded World War Two, and even had some after that.  Indeed, quite a few.  During much of the 30s he was, however, disdained by the American left including the popular media.  World War Two certainly increased that disdain, and for good reasons, as he crept up on joining Nazi Germany and fascist Italy in the war.  By war's end, however, he was courting the west.  His regime died with him, which he was aware would occur, but he retained sufficient support for a monument to his command in the Spain's colonist Rif campaign was still erected, which is pretty amazing really. And we just passed the 40th anniversary of the attempted 1981 Fracoist coup, which of course failed.

Nobody in Span is going to try a Francoist coup now.

Streaming


Paramount movies has announced it will provide movies for streaming 45 days after their initial release.

Sign of the times.

Footnotes

*And, no, I wasn't an Eagle Scout.

I was in Scouting so briefly that I usually say I was never a Boy Scout.  In actuality I was, but as noted, very briefly.

Monday, December 16, 2019

The 2020 Election, Part 4

"The election is only one year from today".



"Only"?

That's the comment I heard on the news this morning, and my reaction, and that's why we've started a new thread here even though the last one wasn't at that stage where we'd normally go to the next installment.

The campaign has being going on for months and there's still a year to go. Frankly, that's patently absurd.

Canada recently had a national election that featured a campaign of about sixty days. That's just about right.  An election process that takes over a year to complete is monumentally messed up.  No regular person is paying that much attention at this stage and that means that the only ones who are, are political aficionados who likely don't reflect the views of average voters at all.

This isn't all of it of course.  But it doesn't help.  By this time we will have had an election, but we will also have had endless primaries, caucuses, and conventions.  Congress will go in and out of session as will the Supreme Court.  The House will have voted to impeach the President and the Senate will vote to keep him in office.  Quite a few voters who voted in the early primary seasons will be dead by the election itself, and new voters who vote in the general election will not have been old enough to have voted in the primary.  Pundits are fond of saying that tradition is the vote of the dead, but in this system, the vote of the dead actually is the vote of the dead.

November 4, 2020.

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Yesterday came the news that Michael Bloomberg is filing to run as a Democratic candidate for the Presidency in Alabama.

This is more in the nature of preserving his options than anything else.  Alabama has an absurdly early deadline to file to run for the office.  As I've noted before, the entire country would be better off if this entire process only had a 90 day lead into the General Election, rather than a year long one. Anyhow, Bloomberg has to file there if he intends to run anywhere.  It doesn't mean he will run.

It also doesn't mean he won't and he's obviously thinking about it.

If he does, it'll be a real symbol of what's currently wrong with American politics.  Bloomberg is 77 years old and yet another East Coast candidate.

Just a week or so ago a 25 year old New Zealand politician noting the average age of House of Commons members there in a speech was heckled by an older politician and suddenly became famous when she dismissed the heckling seamlessly with a "OK Boomer" retort.  That action has shocked members of the Baby Boom generation, and no wonder given that they have such a death grip on American politics.  The average age of the U.S. House of Representatives is 58 years of age, and the Senate 62 years of age.  The average age of the top contenders for the Presidency right now has to be in the 70s.  The last thing the Democrats need is another candidate whose political concepts were cast in the 1960s.

Indeed, my prediction is that if Bloomberg runs, the temptation for Hilary Clinton to run will become overwhelming.  Bloomberg's candidacy only makes sense in any fashion if Biden is crashing towards a failure, assuming that Bloomberg isn't wholly delusional about his chances of success and assuming that he's not willing to drag the entire party down in order to make whatever point he's seeking to make.  Assuming that those items are not the case, a Clinton run actually makes more sense than a Bloomberg one, and she'll know that.

November 8, 2019

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Americans today will experience something they haven't since the early 1990s, that being live televised impeachment proceedings.  Indeed, they'll actually experience something they've never experienced to the extent these will, which is live electronic media impeachment proceedings.

As noted above, there's now less than one year before the General Election and its difficult to imagine Congress really doing anything rapidly.  How long these will go on isn't clear to the author, but we're in the tail end of 2019 now, and even if Congress moves with blistering speed, nothing is really going to get done prior to the end of the year. Assuming that Congress moves forward really quickly, and assuming that there's a party line vote, that would mean that the Senate might have an Impeachment Trial on its plate in very early 2020.

Whether the Senate moves quickly is another matter. Both sets of proceedings risk being turned into circuses of a sort, and the length of them might end up depending upon how long any one body feels that they obtain an advantage by doing that. Any way its looked at, however, it seems the results are basically clear right now.  The House will vote to impeach and the Senate will vote not to.

What isn't clear is how this will impact the overall election.  If there are real bombshells that come out during the proceedings, it might.  Having said that, so far nothing has really changed all that much in basic support in committed camps to date.  A real risk for the Democrats may be that the focus on this sort of thing has now run for a full three years and they're exposed to claims of having done nothing else.  Irrespective of how a person feels on that sort of claim, it's already starting to circulate and it makes a bad basis for anyone's Presidential campaign.

Those old enough to remember the Nixon impeachment in the 1970s will recall that there was an overall air of collapse at the time.  This was less true during the Clinton proceedings, but at that time there was a real feeling of political cynicism.  Both atmospheres stand to be much amplified this time.  That the country could go for a century between the first and second impeachment efforts, and then end up doing it three times in less than fifty years isn't a good development.

November 13, 2019

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Deval Patrick, formerly the Governor of Massachusetts, has entered the race as a Democratic candidate.

Patrick, age 63, is taking the late entry approach.  It'll be interesting to see if this works for him. Coming in now, he will receive attention at this late stage whereas many earlier former stars in the campaign have faded.  At age 63, while not young by normal calculations, he is in this race. He's generally a liberal candidate.

It's now strongly rumored that Hilary Clinton is in fact pondering running.  I think at this point she's likely decided to in fact run.  My guess is that a full Bloomberg announcement and a Clinton one will come shortly.

Clinton is unlikely to be any more successful in 2020 than previously, and I don't believe that she'll secure the nomination.  Her mere presence in the race, however, will hurt the Democrats overall. Bloomberg's will do the same.

November 14, 2019

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Not surprisingly, the weekend shows focused on the impeachment hearings.

One did have Deval Patrick on it, however, and the two I listed to both discussed him.  He's seen as a middle of the road, centrist, Democrat.  In that context, it was noted that the reelection of Louisiana's governor saw the reelection of a Democrat of the nearly extinct social conservative variety. There was quite a bit of speculation that the rank and file is searching for somebody in the middle.

Buttigeg has been rising in the polls in Iowa and there's lots of speculation that may be for the same reason.

Indeed, on the one news show that Patrick was interviewed on he came very close to being examined in a bit of a hostile way on Buttigeg. The suggestion from the while interviewer was, or at least seemed to be, if Patrick was trying to take that position as he realized that he was he was 1) black, and 2) not homosexual, and therefore more electable.  Patrick who probably understood that this was the point, nicely sidestepped it, and frankly the question shouldn't have been asked.

Indeed, Patrick interviewed extremely well in general.  He's clearly more personable than Buttigeg and frankly, if this interview is any guide, more personable than any other running Democrat.  He did miss the ball a bit when asked what the difference was between he and Buttigeg and while he did not that he had a variety of experiences that made him qualified for the Oval Office, he didn't contrast himself directly.  If he had, it would have to be noted that he's been the Governor of a major state, where as Buittigeg has only been the mayor of a mid sized city.

On the same general topic, over the weekend President Obama came out in a speech noting that Americans like improvement but they don't like radical overhaul. That's an arrow shot at the hard left of the Democratic Party.  It did hit home with at least one weekend show pundit who claimed, basically, that Obama was betraying his own past as he had been the radical candidate.  The evidence doesn't support that.

On candidates who don't have a uniformly radical past, Bloomberg, who has been in both parties (like Trump) in his past, disavowed his "stop and frisk" policy from his days as the Mayor of New York. That was controversial, but it was also quite successful, giving us an interesting example of a politician disavowing his own successful actions in the past when they don't fit his current political aims.

November 18, 2019

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I happened to listen (not view) a Democratic debate this season for the first time.

The reason is that Meet The Press had it on their podcast feed and I heard it there while driving somewhere.

It was quite interesting, in part because listening to it gives you a prospective on the prospective of the pundits.  Not too surprisingly, my takeaway was different from theirs.

I'll note that listening to a debate is different than viewing it, and that too can have an impact.  But the Press also tends to go into these debates with a preconceived narrative to a degree, so they're not that inclined to alter it no matter what's said, except around the margins.

Listening to it, it was frankly Andrew Yang who won the debate.  A person doesn't have to agree with everything he believes in order to say that.  He's the only one who had fresh views and didn't have difficulty explaining them.  His answer on national defense was brilliant. So much so that a later "major" candidate co-opted it for his own later answer.

Compared to Yang, everyone looked pretty anemic.  Having said that Buttigieg came across fairly well. An effort to go after his experience by Amy Klobuchar ended up simply embarrassing Klobuchar as Buttigieg dismantled her on that topic and then used  his answer to dismantle everyone else.  Buttigieg also manged to really disrupt a statement by Kamala Harris on none of the white candidates really being able to understand the position of black voters, even though Harris clearly had a point on that demographic being used repeatedly by the Democratic party.  Again, a person doesn't have to agree with Buttigieg on anything in order to see that his debating skills were superior to nearly every other candidate.

Harris came across as a snot and surprisingly relied on her courtroom history as a California district attorney in her closing, noting for most of her professional time she's done that and started off her public addresses with "the people of. . ."  That'd be true, but in a debate in which Corey Booker had just complained about how the government has incarcerated a lot of minorities on drug charges, Harris' former role in putting people in jail seems like an odd thing to emphasize.

Harris was big on "recreating the Obama coalition" without explaining it.  Indeed, the "Obama coalition" may not have really ever existed in the first place.  That emphasizes, however, that the Democratic base isn't anywhere near as left wing as candidates are and that caused hemorrhaging towards Trump in the last election.  It's already known that black voters are uncomfortable with Buttigieg and that the "black church" retains a significant role in that demographic which is likely grater than any other religious demographic in the Democratic party.

Indeed, Warren basically stated that there's no room whatsoever for Democrats like recently re-elected John Bel Edwards in the Democratic Party.  Edwards is pro life and and Warren made support for abortion a litmus test on the basis that its a human rights matter, an extremely weak argument for supporting a policy that ends human life.  Harris leaped on this and indicated that she'd codify Roe v Wade as a matter of Federal law, which isn't a position that many who hold the freedom of state's to craft their own laws will find popular.

While she was able to hardly get a word in, after the debate got rolling, Tulsi Gabbard may have been next to Yang in being clear and blunt.  Her post election role as a commentator and her strong animosity towards the Clintons resulted in a debate with Harris and she pretty much took Harris apart.  Indeed, Harris may have come across the worst in the debate as her answer for everything seems limited to snark.

In terms of ideas, again, like them or not, Yang's were the freshest and well thought out.  Buttigieg's seem thought out.  Klobuchar should have done well, as she does in other venues, but she just came across as angry.  Warren came across as a person whose ideas are limited to the concept that no matter what the problem is, large or small, she'd sick the Federal government on it with a super expensive program of dubious utility.  Indeed, she makes Lyndon Johnson's backing of the Great Society look minor in comparison to what she'd try.

In other news Bloomberg launched a gigantic ad campaign.  The This Week pundits made the interesting observation that he's not really a Democrat, and he's been in both parties.  His presence in the race this late is likely because Warren and Sanders are sinking and people are losing faith in Biden.  It's doubtful that Bloomberg will make a real difference in the race, however, no matter how much money he spends on it.

Bloomberg's entry means that, if we include both parties, there are now no less than three candidates who are old New Yorkers, Bloomberg (who was born in Massachusetts), Sanders (who grew up in New York and retains an extremely thick New York accent) and Trump.  It's hard to grasp, for those who live outside of New York how the state and city retain such a grasp on the nation's politics.

November 25, 2019

I've noted here before that a lot of the demographic assumptions that the Democratic Party has made for quite some time are likely based on a set of false assumptions.  The past week the degree to which that is true and becoming more true started to play out in the primary, all the detriment of Pete Buttigieg.

I noted above that Buttigieg had taken criticism from Kamala Harris and seemingly effectively parried it during the debate. That perception, however, may not have been shared by black voters at all.

Indeed a poll on Buttigieg's position in the upcoming Iowa primary not only showed him last among black voters, but actually at 0%. That's a stunningly low figure and shows that there's definitely going on in a demographic that the Democrats absolutely depend on.  Not only is Buttigieg dead in the water in the campaign if he can't fix that, and that will be hard to fix, but it shows that the party as a whole, may be in really deep trouble in regard to black voters.

We'll get back to that in a moment, but continuing this story on, early in the week a prior statement by Buttigieg surfaced in which he attributed a lack of black economic advancement basically to a lack of role models (I'm really condensing this down).  This resulted in an explosive op ed being published in which a black author not only went after him but in no uncertain terms.  That op ed was in turn rapidly circulated on the Internet and received widespread black voter applause.  Buttigieg reacted by calling the author who credited him with listening, which he said was he could expect a white person to do, showing a real lack of any hope for anyone paying attention to the issues raised.

All that's telling, but a poll that was released coincident with all of this finds that black Democrats are much more conservative, indeed on some issues outright conservative, than their white counterparts. They're also older, showing that the Democrats aren't attracting younger black voters.  That no doubt will stun the Democrats and my prediction is that they'll ignore it.  In the minds of party leadership black voters are in the hardcore left, and that's a view that tends to have been supported by the fact that black politicians who have risen up in the party have seemed to be of the left.

In reality, however, black voters are largely in the Democratic Party due to events that occurred in the 50s through the 80s.  Since that time the GOP has made nearly no effort to recruit black voters even though it knows it needs too.  Irrespective of that, what turns out to be the case is that the black demographic in the Democratic party tends to be conservative on social issues and liberal on economic ones. This is the classic position that pertains to immigrants, and in this sense they're effectively internal immigrants in their own country.

Not yet addressed, this same problem exists for the country's growing Hispanic demographic.  They're highly socially conservative and are only in the Democratic Party because of economic issues and the party's seeming position on immigration.

Up until now none of this has had an impact in a national election, but now for the first time it is. And this shows a trend that's played out with other voting blocks over time.  Once economic conditions are no longer paramount for a voting block, social ones tend to take over.  In the case of the black demographic economic conditions are still an extremely large concern, but social issues are now actually playing out.  And in addition to that Buttigieg, who is the son of an academic and lead what amounts to a very upper middle class, left wing, sheltered life, is showing a lack of understanding on the situation for American blacks that they are really reacting to.

My guess is that he won't be over to overcome this problem.  But beyond that, a person has to wonder if this is a tipping point and the Democratic Party will start to lose black voters.  If it does, at least right now they'll end up independents by and large, which is what actually seems to be happening with younger black voters.  In some rural regions, the Democrats are losing black voters to the GOP, although they seemingly haven't noticed this.  The Democratic Party has three candidates this year who are African Americans, with one being in much too soon to have really been heard from, but those candidates don't seem to be gaining much headway.  All of this may suggest that a voting block that the Democrats have depending on since at least the 1970s is being lost to them seemingly without their having noticed it.

November 28, 2019

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Kamala Harris, whose campaign never really took off, in spite of pundit expectation that it would, bowed out of the race yesterday.

Harris never seemed to really get rolling and instead came across as a younger candidate, in the American sense (age 55) who had promise but somehow never delivered.  Her most notable moments came when 1) she proposed clearly unconstitutional actions in regards to firearms and was debated down on the topic by Joe Biden; and 2) when she took Buttigieg to task in regard to his statements about his support of the black community.  Those latter statements may very well have impacted him as the following week he was the subject of an op ed that was blistering on the topic.

Harris was a prosecutor prior to becoming a politician and frankly, to some degree, that may have hurt her in the Democratic field.  She came across as snarky, something that lawyers can easily do if they've spent much time in the courtroom, and its hard to take a candidate very seriously about their support of the downtrodden if they've spent a career in that branch of the law.  She was from the hardcore left and her departure leaves the field somewhat more level.

Also departing the race is Montana's governor Steve Bullock (age 53). Bullock was a moderate who should have done well as a candidate from a state where he has to pull from all political spectrum.  His campaign, however never took off and he acknowledged that and withdrew in the face of the inevitable.

The Harris departure brought another politician into the Twitter spectrum when Washington Post reporter Matt Viser noted that now the only candidates who have qualified to appear in the next debate are Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren.  Qualification is based on funds raised and therefore this doesn't reflect every Democrat running.  Yang and Booker, for example, are running.

Anyhow, Viser noted that this meant that while the field was "historically large and diverse" it is now all white.

This is interesting for a number of reasons.  For one thing, there's been a press obsession with the ethnicity of candidates that has actually operated to make it less diverse than it actually is.  Harris was regarded as black by the press, but that definition really hearkens back to the old Slave States definition of black as "one drop of blood".  In reality, her mother was of Tamil heritage and was born in Indian and who had Canadian and American citizenship.  Her father was from Jamaica.  Both parents had strong careers in academics.  Harris regarded herself, quite naturally, as black and Indian, but her ethnic heritage gives her a different ethnic heritage than most African Americans.  The press never really looked at this and simply regarded her as African American.  Corey Booker, on the other hand, has a more conventional African American heritage.

This none the less brings up a point which pundits seem to dance around.  While Harris expressly noted that she was "the only black candidate on the stage" last debate, her support among black voters was just slightly better than Buttigieg's, which is at a stunning 0%.  Harris may in fact have suffered i this area by claiming to be "black" when that status doesn't reflect the same sort of experience that the average African American would have.  White voters certainly aren't going to bring this up but African American voters have been highly savvy about things in the past.  They tend to very strong identify with candidates that they believe appreciate their circumstances and often don't worry about ethnicity when they vote as a result, preferring results over ethnicity.  Indeed, even in the segregation era black communities in the South would sometimes vote for white candidates that appeared to support segregation in a race, as they knew that their actual efforts in office would aid them.

This may have played into rock bottom black support for Harris in the race.  She was claiming to be black and does have Jamaican black heritage, but she's also half Tamil as well and her personal history diverges significantly from most African Americans.  As a former prosecutor, moreover, she has a history that most African Americans would have associated a lot more with problems in the system than with efforts to address them.

Booker's campaign is also faltering and signs exist that he'll be out of the race quite soon.  Earlier in the week he was begging for donations so that he could qualify for the next debate and that appears to have failed.  So far he is still in.  For some reason his campaign also has rock bottom support in his own ethnicity.  The reason for that is hard to grasp, but it may simply be because black voters don't regard him as somebody who will likely be effective.  It might also be, however, because his credentials haven't really impressed them so far.

An added aspect of this, however, ties into Buttigieg. All three of these candidates, Buttigieg, Book and Harris lacked support not only from black Democrats, but from Hispanic candidates as well. Again, this may simply be because minority voters identify with effectiveness over ethnicity, to their credit, but it may also be because the old reasons for these communities identifying with the Democratic Party are wearing off.  Combined with that, these communities contain social views that are much more conservative than the Democrats have been espousing in recent years.  This has been wholly ignored by the Democratic Party as a whole and minority Democratic candidates have very carefully aligned themselves with the seeming party platform in order to note loose white Democratic support. But a winnowing process seems to be going on, hardly noticed, in which, in spite of its claims to the contrary, the Democratic Party is becoming the WASP party.  It's presently hemorrhaging young black members as a result.

The remaining African American candidate, Deval Patrick, can't qualify for a debate yet as he just started running and hasn't obtained sufficient donations.  Of course, another new candidate who is extremely well self funded, Michael Bloomberg, can't qualify either.

Anyhow, Viser noted that while the field started large and diverse, only white candidates will be debating next go around, which isn't implicitly diverse.  Perhaps that's true, but it can't be said that Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren are all stamped out of the same mold either in numerous ways.  Be that as it may, Liz Cheney took Viser's comments as the opportunity to comment on Twitter, about Warren; "What about Pocahontas"

What exactly would motivate a person to say a thing like we'd have to leave unanswered, but it wasn't a smart thing to do.  It drew floods of Twitter protests and it make Cheney look incentive.  Her point, no doubt, was to thrown stones at Warren for claiming to be a Native American, something Warren was being patently absurd in doing in the first place, but extreme claims from Warren seem to be her thing.  Being as its a storm on Twitter, it probably has already faded, but she should think twice before saying something like that again.

According to the Chicago Tribune Klobuchar is rising in the polls in Iowa.  The Democratic field is clearly shifting, if not actually getting smaller given that two have gotten out and two have gotten in, but it seems almost certain that Booker is out of the running and that Patrick and Bloomberg won't be successful in getting into it.  Given that, the candidates who will debate next time, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren, with perhaps also Yang, are those who are going to keep on keeping on until mid race.  Steyer's campaign has a lot of money but is not likely to go anywhere, and Yang has a lot of enthusiasm and originality but is not likely to go anywhere. So the really serious contenders appear to be Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren.  The field has suddenly narrowed.

December 4, 2019

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Since typing the above out a couple of days ago I've now heard analysis on the element of race and the Democratic Party on multiple platforms, one that was recorded before I set out the above, but others after that.  It's interesting in part because I'm hearing my own analysis repeated back to me by pundits.

On that, I'm surprised that some pundits are surprised that black voters don't necessarily vote for a black candidate simply because the candidate is black.  I'm also surprised that some pundits are surprised that Hispanic voters don't vote for a black candidate on the basis that Hispanics are minorities (although my prediction is that their category as such will cease to be recognized within a generation as they go through the same process that the Italian and Irish "racial" minorities have in the past), and minorities "of color" will of course vote for a candidate of color, even if their ethnicity is considerably different in terms of heritage.

Some Democrats who were backing or running seem to have made those assumptions as well, and Corey Booker, who is of course still in the race, was loud in the press regarding Kamala Harris' departure on the issue, nearly claiming that black voters owed their votes to him or to Harris because they were black.  Of interest on Harris, I've since seen one post by an Indian American about how proud Harris made her, which brings up once again that while Harris campaigned as a black candidate, her claim to that status is a bit mixed as none of her ethnic heritage comported with the African American norm.  That shouldn't matter, but to some it seems to, and candidates themselves will seem to claim votes based on those claims.

Anyhow, most of the analysis is really close to what I already set out, with pundits rediscovering the really long held truths that: 1) African Americans place their votes with the candidate that they feel best realistically serves their interests, irrespective of that person's race; and 2) African American voters aren't necessarily as loyal to any political party as Democrats have tended to assume in recent years.

On the latter, one commentator, a liberal African American figure who appeared on Meet The Press went further and noted something that I've hinted at, but which he was much more blunt about.  Perhaps his status as an African American allowed him to take on a topic that others don't want to address as they don't want to tread the risky waters that accompany it, and I don't blame them. That had to deal with Buttigieg's almost total lack of support among black and Hispanic voters.

That commentator flat out brought up that Buttigieg has trouble with black voters, and Hispanic voters, as they are "conservative morally", by which he meant that the two demographics do not share the WASP acceptance of homosexual conduct as a moral nullity.  That fact has been a somewhat loudly whispered truth for awhile, but it probably does take a black liberal to openly state it.  He did, and then went on to state that the Republicans are missing a bet as they don't exploit the social conservatism of African Americans and Hispanics.

In stating that he's correct.  The GOP has not known how to address this in recent years and has basically done nothing much more than to note that the Democratic Party simply depends upon black voters without actually assisting them much.  The recent departure of Harris from the race may be a good example of that as Harris was really pronounced on traditional Democratic hard left issues, but none of those directly address black and Hispanic concerns and one of her open positions, her position in regards to abortion, runs directly contrary to a view held by large numbers of Hispanic voters and isn't really all that popular with black voters.  This tends to show that, as previously noted, black and Hispanic support of the Democrats has been for economic reasons and, in regards to Hispanics, because the GOP has been perceived as hostile to Hispanics.

In spite of all of that, the fact that things were beginning to change in this are should have been evident in the 2016 race.  During that race the GOP had two Hispanic contenders who remained in the running for a very long time and one black candidate who did fairly well early on.  Comparing that to the 2020 race, none of the Democratic minority candidates have done well at all.  The one who is likely to remain in the race the longest, Yang, is able to do so due to his unique positions and self funding, but whether fairly or not Asian Americans are regarded as having been more fully assimilated into the nation as a whole than other minorities.

At any rate, the fact that the Republicans did have serious minority candidates who didn't campaign on their ethnicity should be worrying to the Democrats as it signals something going on at the street level.  The GOP is beginning to have conservative black candidates at the state level, which means that the Democrats are now hemorrhaging some voters who had been in the GOP over social issues.  And the GOP has picked up one entire Hispanic demographic, Cuban Americans, and there are starting to be inroads into other Hispanic demographics. As the Hispanic economic situation improves the social issues will start to rise, and even such notable left wing Hispanic figures of the past have voiced some very conservative social views openly.  As Hispanics, moreover, begin to assimilate into Middle America, and they are doing so now, this will accelerate.

The irony this presents is that in this cycle the Democrats are leaping leftward, and they can probably at least safely do so as President Trump has the pretty united opposition of both African Americans and Hispanics.  But at the same time Democrats who for years and years have pointed out with glee that the GOP has a demographic problem are now pointing out that the Democratic Party also has a demographic problem.

December 6, 2019

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Yesterday Finland sat a new Prime Minister.

What, you may legitimately ask, does this have to do with the United States and its election?

Well, perhaps this.

All three of the contenders from Finland's major political parties for this position were under 35.  The government, formed by Social Democrat Sanna Marin, has five women at its head, as a coalition government, four of whom are under 35 years of age. Marin is 34.  She replaces outgoing Social Democrat Anitti Rinne who is 55.

The point?

Well the point isn't that I'm endorsing the Finnish Social Democrats, with whom I have a lot of disagreement.  The point isn't even that I'm endorsing any Finnish political party, all of whom I probably have a lot of disagreement with.  Indeed, Finland shares the Nordic peculiarity, even though the Finns aren't actually a Scandinavian people (save for the minority Swedish population) of seeming political goofiness in recent years.

Rather, I'm noting the stark contrast in ages that the leaders of some other democracies exhibit in contrast to ours.

Indeed, in the current election, as noted before, we're actually fielding potentially the absolute oldest field of candidates of all time.  Donald Trump is the oldest President in his first term ever.  If reelected he'll be the oldest President to be reelected and if he's defeated there's an outstanding chance that whoever replaces him, in the current slate, will then become the oldest President to have been elected to the office.

Prior to Donald Trump, no American President was elected to a first term who was in his  70s.  Now, three of the Democratic top contenders are in their 70s.  Bernie Sanders will actually be 79 years old by the election next year.  Trump will be 74.  Elizabeth Warren will be 71.

What does this argue or indicate?  Probably nothing much more than the first grasp of the Baby Boomer generation on the nation's politics and culture.  Of the nation's 45 presidents, only 11 have been over their 50s when they assumed the office. Granted, that's roughly 1/4, but it's also the case that some who  assumed the office in real times of crisis were much younger.  Franklin Roosevelt was 51.  Abraham Lincoln was 52.  George Washington was 57.

Is this significant?  At least in some senses, it must be.

December 10, 2019

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Bernie Sanders has reacted with outrage to Major League Baseball's proposal to cut 42 minor league teams.  Indeed, he wrote the commissioner of baseball about it and posted as much on his twitter feed.  On the latter, he took an economic, and social justice, point of view, stating:
This has nothing to do with what's good for baseball and everything to do with greed. 

It would destroy thousands of jobs and devastate local economies.
One of the teams slated for the axe, we'd note, is the Vermont Lake Monsters.

Champs, mascot of the Vermont Lake Monsters, a minor league team slated for removal by MLB.  From wikipedia commons and listed as public domain.

December 16, 2019


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The 2020 Election, Part 1

The 2020 Election, Part 2

The 2020 Election, Part 3