Showing posts with label Islam. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Islam. Show all posts

Tuesday, June 2, 2020

Days of Rage*



Ostensibly it started with the death of George Floyd on May 25.


Floyd was arrested by police officers for allegedly using a counterfeit $20.00 bill for the purchase of a pack of cigarettes.  The encounter started off when store clerks, two very young men, one African American and one Asian American (I think) discovered what they thought was an illegal use of counterfeit cash and walked across the street to confront Floyd and a companion, who remained parked across the street. They wanted the cigarettes back but had no luck, so they went back to the store and called it in as a theft.  They also reported Floyd as trunk and not in control of himself.  Floyd, originally from Houston, Texas, was a very large man who at age 46 was a recently laid off bouncer. 

Police shortly arrived and when they did, one of them pulled his sidearm for some reason and ordered Floyd to place his hands on the steering wheel of his car.  He shortly re-holstered the sidearm but then pulled Floyd from the car, which was filmed by a man who was sitting in his car immediately behind Floyd's (something that frankly would have entailed some risk to that person under the circumstances).  That person soon left, or was made to move.

At that point, however things seemed to be in control. Footage of Floyd shows that he probably was drunk and was very distressed.  Officers had no problem in leading the stumbling Floyd up to the wall of the Chinese restaurant where they sat him down without incident. They then moved him to their police car across the street where he stumbled and fell right as a second police car arrived.  By that time, Floyd was complaining of being claustrophobic and not wanting to enter the police car.

As this occurred, the third police vehicle arrived. That one was carrying officer Derek Chauvin and officer Tou Thao.

Before we move on, we should say something about these officers as this entire matter has descended into a type of racial confrontation.  Thoa is obviously Asian American.  More particularly, however, his is Hmong by ethnicity, although American born.  The Hmong are an Asian people who began a southward migration after the Battle of Zhuolu in 2500 BC. They kept moving south into Southeast Asia up into modern times when, as a result of the Vietnam War, they entered the United States as refugees.  They've located, as refugees, in the upper Midwest where, like is typical for many immigrant groups in the first generation of migration, they've been associated with gang activity.**   Thao had six complaints that had been previously been lodged against him and one lawsuit for brutality.  I'm not making any assumptions on any of this, as I really know nothing other than what I've read.  Mostly, because the Hmong are on an American integration track that African Americans have been slow to benefit from, its interesting for that reason.  We'll discuss that more below.

The focus of so much attention, Derek Chauvin, had previously been involved in seventeen complaints and three shootings, one of which was fatal. Again, I don't know anything about any of this, so I'm not commenting on it.

Chauvin became involved in the effort to get Floyd into the car and, for some reason, ended up pulling him out of the car while Thao watched.  Three officers actually held Floyd down, who was obviously completed incapacitated at this time.  Chauvin had his knee on Floyd's neck, and Chauvin was also a large man.  Floyd begins to complain he can't breath and this goes on for a long time.  At least one woman from the gathering crowed attempts to intervene, with another warning her that hte policemen have mace.

The whole thing is shocking.

I just watched this for the first time when I started to type this out, which is June 1, 2020.  Living a long way from Minneapolis, and coming at a time when I was largely absent from the news, it wasn't something I was up on at the time.

Rioting has followed.

We should be frankly, the rioting is basically of three characters, one is an expression of rage, one is an expression of virtue signaling, and the third is opportunism.  Protesting, as opposed to rioting, is likewise of three characters, those being rage, support, and virtue signaling.  I suppose there may been an opportunistic element to it as well.

We'll deal with rage.

We're not going to attempt to condone rioting violence as some have done.  Violence is violence and we don't condone it.  We don't condone violence of any kind except in self defense, although on that we take a broad view.  Not so broad of view, however, that we license the use of it in some ways that a lot of Americans typically do.  The atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, for example, receive no sanction here. They were murders.  They were murders that have nothing to do with this story, but we note that as we want to make clear where we're coming from.

And with that, we'll now skip the riots themselves in terms of what's occurring, for the time being.

The rage expressed is a latent rage over the American failure to deal with the byproducts of a unique form of racism that commenced 400 years ago last year with the introduction of slavery into the New World.

Slavery wasn't new, of course, as some like to point out, but quite frankly race based slavery was new and in1619 when it was introduced into the New World it was a reintroduction of it.  Slavery had gone away in the intervening years following the collapse of the Roman Empire.  It hadn't gone way all at once.  The Saxons, for example, still held slaves when the Normans invaded England in 1066, something the Normans were horrified by.  But by and large, and well prior to 1066, slavery had left Europe.

It had left due to Christianity, contrary to the snarky "the Bible sanctions slavery" comments sometimes made by the historically and religiously ignorant.  In fact, the Bible never sanctioned slavery and the mentions of it with specificity in the Old Testament were restraints on it, with slavery having been a nearly universally practiced "institution" in the world at that time.  Unlike other peoples, the Jews were strictly enjoined on what they could and could not do with slaves in an era in which slaves and servants were so synonymous that the word for them was the same.  As that would indicate, most slaves at that time fit into a fine distinction between being really bonded and being held as servants and were of the same ethnicity, usually, in the case of the Jews, as those who held them.  This wasn't always the case, of course.  Hagar, for example, was Egyptian.

The other type of slavery was around at the time to be sure, and the Jews were of course taken into slavery en masse more than once. That sort of slavery, however, was pretty much enjoined by the Bible in regards to the Jews.  An exception can be found in the instance of the wives of enemy warriors killed in battle, but the example proves the rule.  The taking of enemy women was the norm in the world at the time, but in the Jewish instance those taken had to be married to their captor who was subject to such a set of requirements as to the widow that only the most smitten would every have bothered to attempt it, including allowing the unfortunate woman to mourn for the loss of her first husband.

In early Christian times, therefore, the institution was clearly on the way out, something that is probably exemplified by the examples you can find of early Christian saints in which you can find two members of the same household, one bound and one free, both going into martyrdom together, with in one instance three such people going to their deaths, a woman, her slave, and an infant, all together.  Those instances indicate the evolution of slaves into servants, which is not to say that slaves resulting from wars and put to hard labor were also not common at the time. By the Middle Ages, however, it was very uncommon in Christendom.  Indeed, by that time it was the province of the Vikings, who took slaves in raids, which was one of the reasons they were regarded with horror, and of the Islamic Arabs, who developed slave raiding into an economic enterprise.

It's there that we circle back around to the horror story of American racism, as the Islamic Arabs were distinctly different than Christians in this regard.  Christians looked down on bondage in general and in the case of sex regarded, and still regard, sex between unmarried couples as completely illicit.  Indeed, Christians regarded from the very first instance that marriage required the full consent of both parties, man and woman, or no valid marriage existed.  Muslims, however, didn't regard this to be the case in the same way.  Marriage, in Islam, required consent, but Mohammed had licensed forced sex with slave women during his rise and this resulted in a slave industry in Muslim lands that was based on labor, as slavery was sanctioned, and on sex.  By Christian terms this involved, of course, rape, but in Muslim terms, it did not.

The Arabs therefore developed an extensive slave trading enterprise based on the capture of slaves, for labor and forced sex.  It spread throughout northern Africa but it also spread to the Mediterranean and even the Atlantic as Arab raiders took human prizes for those purposes. The only real requirement was that they couldn't take Muslim prisoners and Arab men, and of course it was limited to men, couldn't hold Muslim women as sex slaves.  Holding Irish women, for example, or holding black African women who were not Muslim, was perfectly allowable.

By the time the Portuguese started colonizing the West African coast an extensive slave trade, based on a person's religious affiliation, was going on, and fueled in part by the evil of war.  Slaves were often captured locally and, and often in war, and then traded to Arab slave traders, who sold them on in other places, often in their own domains. The Portuguese stepped into this evil and joined right in, in spite of their Christian background.  Hence the exportation of slaves to the New World commenced.  

The reintroduction of slavery was notably concentrated by Europeans in their new domains, although it was not actually limited to it. Still, the avoidance of reintroducing the evil in their native lands was no doubt in part because it was an obvious evil that would have called into question the fundamental nature of those societies and what they claimed to be about.

By that time Europeans were involved in a wholescale global colonial effort.  We're not going to go into that in depth and we're not going to get preachy about that, as is so often the case on this topic. Yes, Europeans were attempting to extend their rule over foreign people's everywhere, but in fact everyone everywhere was also attempting to do that. While nationalism as we understand it, contrary to the common historical assertion, has always existed, in the 17th Century it was also commonly accepted that one sovereign could rule over a wide group of peoples and no nation thought much about extending its power over the weaker nations, including for economic reasons.  Nothing in that excuses slavery, but if we are going to step back and also condemn colonialism in the period we'll be in the position of condemning people for something that they would not have grasped as wrong.  Indeed, one feature of European colonial extension into other areas of the globe is that their colonial enterprises sometimes ended up smacking up against those of the people they were attempting to colonize, making their contests ones of one empire against another.

If people, globally, of the day would not have thought of colonialism as being wrong, they knew better about slavery.  Indeed, in order to engage in it, they had to rationalize it.

That hadn't been the case with slavery of antiquity.  This is not to say that such slavery was nice in any fashion, but the thin resources of the day gave it an economic nature that was distinctly different from later eras.  As noted above, the distinction between conventional slaves and servants had been slight, and as an important feature of that, they were usually of the same culture.  The exception was for what essentially amounted to prisoners of war, for whom there was no other easy way to hold them.  It's important to note, however that there were exceptions that were ethnicity based, as when entire peoples were carried into slavery.

That hadn't occurred for millenai in European terms and therefore the reintroduction of slavery was not only new, it was uniquely malignant.  It was based on ethnicity, which came to be seen rapidly as based on "race". The thin excuse was a gradient from African slaves being very primitive people in the eyes of Europeans who would somehow benefit from their captivity to their just being inferior or even sort of subhuman.

It's that categorization that lives on with us today in the form of a racism and economic legacy that has kept African Americans from sharing the story of other immigrants to North America.  Only Indians somewhat otherwise share that story, although theirs is uniquely different in some ways.

Racism justified keeping blacks as slaves and economics fueled it, making it a doubly sinful enterprise based on failing to love your neighbor and loving money over all else.  That evil was recognized as such well before the American Revolution and in fact slavery was passing away in the north by that time. At the time of the country declaring its independence from England it was expected that slavery would pass away in the south as well, but economics kept that from occurring, placing the overwhelming bulk of American blacks in unending bondage.  A growing realization of the evil of slavery resulted in the Civil War (there was no other cause but that in spite of what Confederate apologist may maintain today), and to the nation's credit thousands died to free the slaves. Thousands also died in a disreputable and evil effort to keep their fellow men slaves as well, of course.

Following the Civil War economics eventually triumphed over justice and an early effort to appropriate lands from slaveholders and issue them back out to former slaves on a 40 acre standard American farming model failed.  Soon the nation turned its back on the former slaves figuring it had done enough just to free them.  In the early 20th Century blacks began to abandon the south in the Great Migration and spread throughout the country in an effort to improve their lot, but the south remained the locality where the black population was the highest and most deprived.  It wasn't until World War One when there were serious efforts to address the ongoing discrimination and poverty of African Americans and blacks enlisting in the US armed forces at the time thought of their services as a full step into equality, which it proved not to be.  It was the introduction, however that even the Red Summer of 1919 couldn't reverse.  It would have been logical if World War Two would have built on what came before in the 1910s and 1920s, and it did in some ways, but it wasn't until the Truman Administration that the ongoing legal institutions that kept blacks impoverished and separate began to come rapidly down.

From 1948 through the early 1970s the Federal Government worked diligently to dismantle the laws that burdened blacks, aided by a United States Supreme Court that made use of Reconstruction Era laws for the first time in a century.  But, significant to our story here, it's important to realize that blacks in the south did not achieve legal equality until well within the lifetimes of the current President and his Democratic contender.  For that matter, slavery's passing was not even a century old at the time of their births.  Put another way, more time has passed between World War One and today than between the births of Joe Biden and Donald Trump and the end of slavery.  There were men and women still alive who had been born into slavery when they were born (and when I was born).

The burden of slavery would be hard to overcome in just a century's time but the legal institutions that were erected in the south after the failure of Reconstruction created a near slavery sort of economic status for blacks, dooming them to certain types of work and poor educations. Those conditions fueled the Great Migration but they also meant that the majority of blacks lived their entire lives in deprived conditions. This only began to change for those remaining in the south in the 1940s and it really got rolling in the 1960s.    This means that most of the improvement in the economic lives of blacks has only come since World War Two, and the strong prejudices that allowed that to be the case lived on openly well into the 1970s.  That's not long ago.  It effectively means that George Floyd was born in an era when expressing prejudice of that type was acceptable in the region in which he was born.

The Civil Rights era of the 1960s is looked back as the golden era, in some ways of civil rights efforts for African Americans.  It's easy to forget that there was widespread opposition to the efforts and openly opposing them was not socially unacceptable.  Lyndon Johnson went to the dedication of Stone Mountain in 1970, for example, an event honoring Confederate leadership in a fashion that would never be condoned today.  The situation for blacks has improved massively since 1970.

But as is often the case, the law of unintended consequences has plagued them as well.  The elimination of legal barriers raised the fortunes of all African Americans but it improved the lives of middle class and nearly middle class blacks the most, who migrated out of the ghettos where they had been previously concentrated. That pattern followed that laid out by all prior American immigrant minorities.  It had the accidental consequence of concentrating poverty in those same areas, whereas prior to that there had been a range of economic classes in them.  Farming policies of the Great Depression wiped out black farming in the south duringthe 1930s, eliminating a long standing black class there.  Experimental liberal social policies in the 1960s and 1970s foreshadowed efforts towards a Universal Basic Income and had predictable and disastrous effects of the African American poor whose social structures were weak due to the legacy of slavery.***This had the impact of concentrating poverty further.  

It also meant that blacks didn't universally follow the path of prior immigrant groups, something that was further the case due to ongoing racism.  Prior groups had generally reached a day in which wholescale migration over to the middle class occured and the ethnic character of the group started to dissolve.  

People may claim to be Irish Americans or Italian Americans today, for example, without even grasping what that meant a century ago.  In 1920, if a person was an Irish American, nearly everything about them culturally and economically was made obvious just by stating that status. Today it may mean nothing more than a person having corned beef on St. Patrick's Day.  As that status changed in the country it meant not only that people moved economically up, but it also meant that they moved into other groups, regions, and ethnicities.  People claiming, for example, to be Italian Americans today are nearly as likely to be descended from English immigrants than Italian ones, due to marriages outside of the declared ethnicity.

All of this is much less true for African Americans.  The absurd "one drop" rule means that children of mixed unions are regarded as black, which is nothing more than pigmentation in biological terms.  Mix marriages and other unions have only become common very, very recently.

They have now become common, however, which is a signal that, in spite of what we're now enduring, we may actually be at that moment at which African Americans finally cross over to just being Americans.  Within the last few years advertising, a mirror reflected back on American beliefs, has gone from introducing black actors in advertisements to mixed couples.  This is now common and hardly anyone notices. As recently as a decade ago this would have sparked some controversy and in the 1970s it would have cost the advertiser revenue. The fact that television viewers think nothing of a white husband and a black wife, or vice versa, is really revolutionary.

As is, of course, the fact that we've had a black President.

The Civil Rights effort of the 1960s was reflected back on the country in strife in the 1970s.  If we think of the south resisting integration in the 1960s we're recalling that correctly, but we're also forgetting that Dixiecrats and the like were really a thing of the 1970s.  Southern Rock bands started flying the Stars and Bars in that decade, not before, and when Lynrd Skynrd sang about Wallace in Sweet Home Alabama, it was 1974.  That song remains popular today without anyone seemingly pausing to think that it was a "we'll get around to it" reaction to Southern Man.  Given that, the massive reaction to Barack Obama during his presidency is perhaps not too surprising, as for some there was a racist element to that reaction (but certainly not one on the party of everyone who disliked him as President).  That some of that remains during the Presidency of Donald Trump is accordingly not surprising.

None of which means that the nation should just sit on its hands as everything is going to be okay.  There remain real problems for black Americans, and Indian Americans, that other people don't face.  Part of that is racism, but part of that is poverty which in turn allows the racism to continue. Racist find support for their racism in the fact that blacks remain poor and their social institutions were so badly damaged by well-meaning but poorly thought out programs form the 1960s.  And that's a problem the nation can't ignore.

Much of that problem is simply economic, and curing the economic problem would cure a lot of ills.  But the nation has not only failed to address the economic problems of African Americans, and Indians, its worked to make them much worse.  Entering into the work place and rising up remains a problem for poor blacks who are concentrated by location, and who face stout competition from high immigrant populations that have strong social cohesion and who face less prejudice.  They are well aware of that.

And they're also likely to know that these problems are deeply ingrained and are going to be ignored.  The Democratic Party, which claims the support of most blacks, is unlikely to do anything in real terms to aid them and has turned its attention instead to new immigrant populations which it feels are more likely to provide its base, rightly or wrongly, in the future.  To say that the Democrats have no interest in rural blacks would be an understatement, but it also has little interest in doing anything concrete for urban blacks either.  Indeed, since the 2000s the Democratic Party has often taken positions that are offensive to the views of the majority of African Americans and taken the view that blacks had to support them as blacks have nowhere else to go. And they do largely have nowhere else to go as the GOP has had no concrete position towards blacks since the 1980s.

And so the rage is understandable.

Unfortunately, it is not likely to be helpful to anyone.  Riots of the 1960s gave rise to the "law and order" campaign of Richard Nixon, something not regarded as a bright spot in the nation's history now.  And the co-opting of genuine movements in the 1960s by the hardcore left brought them disrepute in later years.  Indeed, it can be argued that hardcore left insertion in the movements of the left, something that has never really stopped, doomed their effectiveness and further brought to an end the active Civil Rights movement of the 60s.  Put another way, while the difference between Martin Luther King, Jr., and Abby Hoffman are obvious to anyone who is paying attention, a lot of people just aren't paying attention.

And that seems to be sort of rapidly playing out now.  A lot of the protesters we see at events now are likely not really motivated by the plight of African Americans so much as they are something else, somethings innocent, somethings opportunistic, and somethings radical.  And amazingly at the same time we have a President who seems to be fanning the flames by his statements.

And so we can wonder what will occur.  What probably won't occur, no matter what, is a Richard Stroud like program designed to specifically aid the economic progress of African Americans, nor any attention to repairing the damage to black social institutions that were destroyed by the programs of the 1960s and 1970s.  Democrats have no real interest in taking that on, and Republicans aren't likely to be specifically focused on doing so.

________________________________________________________________________

*This refers to a series of 1969 protests, but the title seemed applicable here.

**The movie Gran Torino may have brought the urban American Hmong into familiarity with Americans as a group.

On gang activity, almost every post mid-19th Century American immigrant ethnicity has had gang activity in its early stages. An exception may exist for Japanese and Korean immigrants, but that would be pretty much it.  After the cultures begin to rise, with police work a typical early introduction into the middle class, this almost always fades away.  Irish, Italian, Jewish, among other, ethnicities have all been associated with criminal gangs at one point.

***African American social structures were deeply impacted by the fact that for the first 300 years of their presence in North America a black slave could be sold at any time.  Therefore, much of what other people regard as permanent was not equally the case for blacks in spite of often heroic measures to make it so.  Black couples would sometimes seek  and gain permission to travel long distances simply to visit each other, for example.  Nonetheless, with spouses and children libel to be traded away by slave holders at any time, everything was tenuous and that had to be accepted by the people so afflicted in order to endure it.

Monday, May 18, 2020

May 18, 1920. Future Popes, Equine Events, and Middle Eastern Wars.

Karol Józef Wojtyła, was born to Emilia and Karol Wojtyla in Wadlowice, Poland.

St. Pope John Paul II's parents at the time of their wedding.  They are both presently candidates for sainthood.

He'd become St. John Paul II the Great, the most influential Pope of the second half of the 20th Century.

His early life was hard, in a country where life itself was hard.  His mother, who was a school teacher, died when he was 8 years old.  His deeply religious father was first an NCO, prior to his birth, in the Austro Hungarian Army and then a Captain in the Polish Army.   Upon his wife's death he worked close to home so that he could care for his young child.

His father died of a heart attack Polish in 1941.  His eldest brother, with whom he was close, died of scarlet fever after attended to scarlet fever victims in the early 1930s.   Upon his father's death he was the only immediately surviving member of the family.  

He entered the seminary secretly during World War Two, the Germans had closed them in Poland, and was ordained in Soviet occupied Poland in 1946.

He ultimately rose to become Pope in 1978, and occupied that position until his death in 2005.  Since that time he has had two successors, with the first perhaps ironically being German, thereby creating the odd situation of a Pope who lived under German occupation during World War Two being succeeded by one who had briefly been in the German armed forces (anti aircraft gun crewman) as a very young man at the end of the war.

The National Horse Show was going on in Washington D.C.

General Pershing's personal mounts Entered in the National Capitol Horse Show which opened today. On the left is Col. John G. Quekemeyer with "Jeff" and on the Right Lt. W.J. Cunningham with "John Bunny".

Col. John G. Quekemeyer and Lt. James H. Cunningham taking the jumps on Princess and Dandy, at the National Capitol Horse Show. These two hunters were presented by the English Government to General Pershings Staff and are entered with the string of A.E.F. Horses.

And Man O War, who had not run in the Kentucky Derby, won the Preakness.


Another event involving a lot of horses was the Battle of Hamdh, which occurred on this day in 1920. The battle pitted the Ikhwan, the putative National Guard of Saudi Arabia, against Kuwaiti forces. The distribution of manpower was lopsided in favor of the Saudis.  It was part of the Kuwait-Najd War.

The event was part of the Saudi effort to annex Kuwait and impose a strict religious regime upon them.  The Kuwaitis lost the battle after six days, but ultimately the British would intervene and end the war.  Kuwait was a British protectorate at the time.  Prior to that the Saudis attempted to dictate a peace requiring the eviction of Shias, adoption of Wahhabism, declare the Turks to be heretics, ban smoking, ban prostitution, and destroy the American missionary hospital in Kuwait.  The peace was imposed by the British in 1922 and it did not include those provisions, but Kuwait, which was not allowed to participate in the discussions, lost more than 2/3s of its territory.

Sunday, January 5, 2020

Asymmetrical War and Gross Overreaction

Dear readers, it is important to note that Pearl Harbor has not been struck by the Japanese in a second sneak attack.

Eh?

Well, the reason I note that is that event was the last one which caused the United States to declare war on anyone. Sure, we've fought several undeclared conflicts since then, one, or two, of which were illegally fought in that they required, in my view, a declaration of war, but there's no risk of "World War III".

None the less, some in the Press are even kicking around World War III headlines, which provides evidence of why people who are deeply informed on any one topic tend to take the Press with a very high dose of salt.

At the same time, we'd note, basically historical ignorance combined with people's basic love of panic, and people do love a good panic, is contributing to the complete and utter nonsense that's circulating right now.

Okay, what's this about and what's really going on, to the extent we know.

Death from above.  Starting with the Obama Administration and continuing now onto the Trump Administration individual enemies of the US and those near them have found themselves alive one moment and in eternity the next through strikes conducted by Predator drones, such as this one in Iraq.  Last week Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani found himself in the situation of flying into Baghdad to consult with those he lead in the name of the spread of Shia Islam to being in the next world and finding out if the 7th Century founder of Islam was right. .  or wrong. . . or perhaps a now greatly misunderstood Gnostic preacher who wasn't sending a message as now understood.

Last week President Trump, without informing Congress, ordered a drone strike on Iranian Gen. Qasem Soleimani.  Soleimani, in an acting of stunning hubris, flew into a nation where Iran maintains client militias in the Iranian's government effort to subvert the Middle East for the purpose of spreading the Shia theocracy, even while its own people are leaving Islam in droves and declaring they've had enough of the Shia theocracy.

Indeed, were the Iranian government lead by men with flexible minds overall, they'd democratize the country immediately, which would give Shia fundamentalism a much better chance of retaining influence in Iran, assuming its not too late, than their current course.  The course they're on right now will result in the secularization of the nation through disgust, sooner or later, and an educated Iranian population is already well into the process of pondering Islam's contradictions and problems.

But that's not the course of action they're going to take. They're going to go down with the ship, and make it worse for themselves.

And part of that is sponsoring guerrilla war against all sorts of forces and states in the region, including subverting the Iraqi government  and sponsoring militias there.

Gen. Qasem Soleimani had been instrumental in it and he met a fate he basically deserved.  

He deserved it as he was an instrument in a struggle that depended at its core on Iran's opponents not behaving like Iran.  And just like the rude motorist who finds himself cutoff by a tow truck driver who has had enough, Iran is complaining about it.

Citing Gasoline Alley may seem odd here, but in essence, Iran is behaving like Doc.

Iran of course feels this way as its been allowed to.  Western powers have restrained themselves from taking on the theocracy since its first creation, no matter how difficult that nation has been, for a variety of reasons.  And there's real logic to that approach.  Sooner or later, Iran's going to collapse under its own oppressive weight and the problem will be solved.

None of which means that anyone must tolerate their violent misbehavior in the meantime.

Which also doesn't mean that killing a top general of their's is wise

Indeed, all of this is very problematic.  For one thing, it's extremely odd to be using killer drones over the downtown street of a country you theoretically are aiding.  Indeed, as we are the guest, and they are the host, we presumably would want permission to act in this fashion.

We didn't get that, and we wouldn't have received it either.  Iran has strong influence in the Iraqi government.

Additionally, flat out killing an Iranian general in this fashion, while technologically impressive and oddly honest in a way as well, isn't really strategically sound for a variety of reasons, first and foremost of which is that overall any one general's ability to influence the long term outcome of a struggle is always questionable.  

Even if he is key, however, doing it outright will cause the Iranian people to rally to their government, no matter how much they might otherwise detest it.  Deeply Orthodox Russian soldiers fought for the atheistic Soviet Union heroically, as Mother Russia had been attacked.  

Red Army soldier, likely a Soviet Pole, and a Catholic, during World War Two.

And while it may be a bad or disturbing example, German soldiers fought tooth and nail during the final months of World War Two against the advancing Soviets.  Viet Cong solders, increasingly youthful as the war went on, fought hard in the 1970s for a cause they only understood loosely at best simply because the other side was there, in their concept of another side.

The point is that this actually may serve to prolong the struggle with Iran.

Which is why, if it was necessary, most nation's would have gone about this differently.  In Baghdad nobody would have though much of a couple of RPG rockets slamming into a car followed by concluding bursts of AKM (AK47) fire.  It'd look like another Iraqi militia had done it.

Indeed, a colleague of mine who had once been a Navy SEAL told me that in his day, for sidearms they carried Browning Hi Powers. They were used by so many nations at that time that if one was dropped, you could never tell what military had been there.

This assumes, of course, that it was necessary to kill Soleimani, which is a big assumption.  It's difficult for me to see how that would have been true.  Of course, the New York Times is now declaring he was no big deal, but the Times, like Chuck Todd, has become so partisan its lost all objectivity.  Suffice it to say, however, taking us to a higher level of conflict with Iran right now really raises some questions.

One question it doesn't raise is whether or not we're going into "World War III".

There's actually some outright moronic speculation of this type.  On Twitter, for example, the Twitter Twits are causing this to trend today:

Politics · Trending
#Iranattack
Trending with: #IranUsa, #WWIIl

That's just silly.

But perhaps not as silly as this:

Due to the spread of misinformation, our website is experiencing high traffic volumes at this time. If you are attempting to register or verify registration, please check back later today as we are working to resolve this issue. We appreciate your patience.

Eh gads, any narcissistic fool who seriously is calling the Selective Service as they think there's going to be a resumption of conscription is truly a bed wetter.  Head out of the phone bucko, and read some real history.

There isn't even going to be a conventional war between Iran and the United States.  Iran would loose it and they know that.  All of which makes the public freaking out about this downright dumb.

Indeed, probably the most amusing freak out was that of Rose McGowan. She's an actress, and therefore is part of the vapid set, who posted a gif of an Iranian flag with a sunny and a smiling bear, or something, on it, with this text:

Deaar #Iran, The USA has disrespected your country, your flag, your people. 52% of us humbly apologize. We want peace with your nation. We are being held hostage by a terrorist regime. We do not know how to escape. Please do not kill us. #Soleimani

That's really stupid.

That it was stupid became pretty obvious really quickly and she began to back-peddle enduing up with this:

Ok, so I freaked out because we may have any impending war. Sometimes it’s okay to freak out on those in power. It’s our right. That is what so many Brave soldiers have fought for. That is democracy. I do not want any more American soldiers killed. That’s it.

Oh horse sh**.  This was an example of vapidness blowing up on the commentator.  There's a lot of it around right now.  And its just not very smart.

There's going to be no conventional war with Iran.  We aren't going to engage in one, and the Iranians aren't either.  Neither side, in fact, could easily do it, but it it occurred, it would be the end of the Iranian theocracy, and they likely know deep down that its winding down anyhow and they don't want to accelerate that.  At some foreseeable point in the near future the Shiite mullahs of Iran will have the same level of influence on Iran that the Church of Sweden has over that county's affairs. That's not to say none, in either case, but it won't be what it is now.

Speculation about the effectiveness of the Iranian military has been rampant for a really long time, but the best evidence is that it isn't.  The common citation to their effectiveness is the example of their war that Iraq fought with Iran from 1980 to 1988 in which both sides actually demonstrated a raving level of military incompetence.

Fighting to a draw with modern weapons and World War One technology isn't an example of military prowess.  At that time Iran had a western trained 1970s vintage military with 1970s vintage military equipment and Iraq had a Soviet trained 1970s vintage military with 1970s vintage military equipment.  Both side managed to forget their training nearly immediately and fought with their respective 1970s equipment as if it was 1917.  

Iran still has 1970s equipment but now are largely internally trained and, in a conventional war, would be even less competent than they were in the 1980s, much like the Iraqis were in the 1990s and 2000s. And they likely have no illusion about being able to fight anyone.

Iranian F-14s in the 1980s. The F-14 was a great plane, but old airplanes with no parts don't stay great and technology has moved on.

Indeed, they don't really try. The Iranians like asymmetrical, irregular war, and that's what we'll likely see.  But we will see that.

Which does bring us back around to a more tense situation.  Will Iran try to close the Persian Gulf and what will the Europeans do if they do (they depend on it being open more than we do)?  Will Iran ramp up terrorism?

Indeed, the latter appears to be a certainty, as Iran has already stated that its retaliation will be "against military sites". That's worrying, but what that suggest is that they'll engage in asymmetrical war at a calculated level.  Basically, like Arab nations did with Israel for decades.  Just enough violence to not really provoke a war terminating their state.

All of which means that this will go on, most likely, for years. . . depending upon our reaction, which is proving to be the difficult one right now.  And that's the weird situation that Iran finds itself in.  Like a habitual rude driver, they suddenly find themselves having angered somebody who appears to be irrational and are now in the "oh crap. . . did that tow truck driver cut me off and is he getting out of the cab with a beer and a gun. . . ?"  Nobody knows what any reaction from the United States will be right now.

Including Americans.

But it won't involve World War Three and it won't involve conscription.

It'll be more analogous to the the long Arab Israeli struggle, at least for the time being.  Which means that panicked might have to do a little studying.