Showing posts with label Immigration. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Immigration. Show all posts

Friday, February 9, 2024

The worst immigration argument

Victory Farm Volunteers registering in Lane County. Oregon.  Lovina Wilson, farm labor assistant, routes the first three children, and that is what they are, to register during the Mobilization Day program at the Frances Willard School in Eugene. The enrollees in the photo are, left to right, facing table front row: Glenn Cash,13; Howard Cash, 11; and Don Mickelwait, 13.  This photo was taken in 1946, right after World War Two, demonstrating that wartime manpower shortages were ongoing.  This would be, quite frankly, more than a bit much today, as these individuals are way to young to seriously work on a farm, unless they are working on their family farm, and they were frankly way too young then.  Note the boys are wearing white t-shirts, with nothing emblazoned on them, and that girls are in the crowd as well.

There are a lot of varieties of this argument I keep seeing:

If you’re out here talking sht about immigrants but still going to the grocery store to feed yourself, that’s clown sht of the highest order. 

Stop being lazy & get your hands in the dirt or shut the fck up.

From, of course, Twitter.

This is baloney.

To distill the argument, it is that the US must dare not get control of its border with Mexico, or at least not a fair degree of control, as the US is dependent upon those illegally crossiong for food production.

That argument is first and foremost baloney, as it somehow makes the assumption that the huge number of immigrants arriving from Central and South America are in fact arriving in order to work on farms. That isn't happening.  They want to work, no doubt, but the migrant farm system is well established, and they aren't seeking to get jobs in cabbage fields this summer and then go back home.

In reality, most are economic migrants or migrants from Central and South American failed states.  The US is racing towards becoming a failed state itself right now.  Our government isn't working, and we're about to elect an imagined Caudillo who will have to turn on migrants like a health inspector turns on expired milk.  

But economically, the farm sector isn't employing them.

Lots of other things are, such as the construction industry, local small businesses, and back door employment, which explains who we got in this mess.  Democrats imagined, wrongly, that all future migrants are Democratic voters.*  Republicans imagined them all as somebody who was going to mow their lawn for cheap.  Turns out that they are none of those things.**

In reality, they take entry level manual labor jobs which, frankly, would go to Americans who need them, but for the price depression impact this has.

Which gets to the next thing.

The "agriculture depends on migrants" argument is, really, that American agriculture is habituated to cheap farm labor because the Federal Government, with apocalyptic visions of the future after World War Two, created a cheap food policy.

Frightened that Depression Era conditions would return after World War Two, and then frightened that conditions were going to go into the waste bin due to the Cold War, from 1945 on the government has done everything it can to keep foods as cheap as possible.  Americans bitch about food prices, but they spend about 9% of their budget on food, and it generally keeps going down.  The U.S. Government has tracked food prices since 1929, and it's the lowest ever, generally.  From 1929 to 1952 Americans spending on food consumed generally above 20% of a family's income.  In 1932, it was 22%.  In 2008, in contrast, it was 5.6%.

That's great, for family budgets, and it has ancillary impacts on a lot of industries.  Cheap food means that people can go to good restaurants (where you are actually a lot more likely to run into an illegal alien than in a cabbage patch) and have a really good dinner for pretty cheap, and then sit there over dinner and bitch about food prices.  This hasn't always been the case.  When Americans "ate out" well into the 1970s, they probably meant that they went to a diner for lunch.  Growing up, trips to restaurants for dinner were so rare that they only occured, normally, when it was some sort of special occasion, like a birthday or anniversary.  To take a date to a restaurant was a big deal, even when I was a college student.  You were trying to really impress a girl if you took her out for a meal, and later you assessed the damage to your finances that had ensued.

Even fast food joints to some extent expressed this.  We would often hit the burger joints on the weekends, but not daily.  By the time my son was in high school, however, high schoolers hit the nearby fast food joints every day.  Indeed, when I was in high school I ate in the cafeteria, the first time I'd eaten routinely at school.  I didn't particularly like it, but that's what there was.  When our high school cafeteria was condemned during my first year of high school, and prior to their building a new one, I briefly ate downtown, but it was too expensive, and I took up just brining a bad sandwich I'd made myself at home and sitting in the football stadium to eat it.

Glory Days indeed.

Now, fast food fare is absurdly cheap.  Quite a few people I know hit Dirty Ron's Steakhouse every morning for a couple of Egg McMuffins and a cup of Joe on the way in to work, and frankly, they're not bad (and no, that nickname aside, that establishment is not dirty at all).  And I've met working adults, including professionals, who go to Subway, or whatever, every day for lunch.  "Value Meals" and the like are incredibly cheap.  All of this because of a "cheap food" policy.  Part of that policy is related to legal farm migrants, but they are not flooding across the Rio Grande or the desert and claiming asylum.

Nor, frankly, is an ongoing "cheap food" policy a good thing.

The cheap food policy has helped make Americans increasingly fat while driving smaller agricultural entities out of business.  It's contributed to the concentration of everything, and not in a good way.  It's made food prices unrealistically low, while divorcing Americans from the reality of the actual cost of things.  It should end.

Part of that would be, quite frankly, to end the modern version of the Bracero program that has depressed the value of farm labor.  When it came in, in 1943, it made a little bit of sense, maybe, perhaps.  But eighty years later, it doesn't.  Americans will work any job, contrary to what is claimed about them, but at wages that are realistic.  Immigrant farm labor wages won't attract them, as the wages are too low.

In an era in which thousands of Americans are out on the streets without jobs, and in which there are rural areas that are basically depopulated save for the injured and left behind in smaller towns, lying between the consolidated farms, and in which we have urban areas and reservations that are hardcore reservoirs of poverty, if people were paid real wages, there's a ready-made source of labor.  Sure, they aren't the best jobs in the world in some ways, but they are jobs.  And they're also jobs for middle class younger people, who have a demonstrated interest in topics of the soil.

The numbers involved are not small. The US takes in 3,000,000 migrant farmworkers per year.  Ending a program such as this would result in a big impact to farm production, and it'd jump food prices for sure as the positions were, and they ultimately would be, filled with American residents.  It'd frankly also spur mechanization, which I'm not particularly keen on, as right now there are very expensive agricultural implements that are not employed as migrant farm labor is cheaper.

But ultimately, the principal of subsidiarity should come into play here for lots of reasons.

None of the reasons involve the thousands crossing the US Southern border, who are people facing an existential crisis that must be addressed.  They aren't the migrant farmworkers however.  That's a completely different topic.

Footnotes:

*Democrats have long assumed that Hispanic immigrants are natural Democratic voters, without learning the lessons of demographics or history.  

Immigrants tend to be Democratic voters early in their demographic's migration history.  Irish immigrants were.  Italian immigrants were.  This frankly had a lot to do with patronage.  But as they became established, this became much less the case.  To declare yourself "Irish" today doesn't mean that somebody should automatically assume you are a Democrat.

And that's true even if you have 100% Hibernian heritage, or to take the Italian example, if you can trace your lineage back to Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus' third cousin, once removed.  Truth be known, in a species in which Joe Cro Magnon pretty quickly asked Lucy Neanderthal out on a date, those straight lines of lineage don't last very long.  To declare yourself "Irish" today, in the US, might merely mean that you think the Irish drink green Budweiser with corned beef sandwiches on St. Patrick's Day.

Moreover, Hispanics in the US have and retain (although they are rapidly losing it) a very distinct culture which is existentially Catholic and conservative.  This is so much the case that the radicals of the Mexican Revolution, in the form of the Constitutionalist, sought to stamp it out, much like their semi fellow travelers the Bolsheviks went after Orthodoxy in Russia after 1917.  And they had a similar success rate, which means lots of Mexican Hispanics, which is what most Hispanics in the US are often only semi observant, but culturally Catholic still.  Given that, the darling issues of the Democratic Greenwich Village set, which forms the central corps of Democratic thought, are deeply at odds with what most Hispanics believe. And this only becomes more the case when Hispanics from outside of Northern Mexican ancestry are considered.  So, not too surprisingly, they're turning Republican.

They are also due to the border crisis itself.  Hispanics along the border whose ancestors settled there two hundred years ago, or in the wake of the Mexican Revolution, or even in earlier recent migrant waves, are not really of the same culture, no matter how dimwitted Americans are about it, as those now crossing and the flood is wrecking their communities.  Americans may see Hondurans and Guatemalans, as well as Venezuelans, as being the same as people from Chihuahua, but people from Chihuahua who live in Eagle Pass do not.

**And they are people, which oddly seems forgotten, except as an argument over the crisis.  Democrats thinking they were mindless sheep who could be herded into the voting booths and Republicans thinking they were something akin to slaves is inexcusible.

Sunday, January 7, 2024

Monday, January 7, 1924. Rebels take Tampico.

Mexican rebels took Tampico.  The city is an important oil port.

The Fédération Internationale de Hockey (FIH) was founded in Paris by representatives of field hockey organizations of Austria, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, France, Hungary, Spain, and Switzerland.

Ice Skating near the Lincoln Memorial, January 7, 1924.

A Catholic organization protested the current immigration policy.



Sunday, December 31, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part XII. γλυκύ δ᾽ἀπείρῳ πόλεμος. πεπειραμένων δέ τις ταρβεῖ προσιόντα νιν καρδία περισσῶς.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

Matthew, Chapter 24.

γλυκύ δ᾽ἀπείρῳ πόλεμος.

πεπειραμένων δέ τις ταρβεῖ προσιόντα νιν καρδία περισσῶς.

War is sweet to those who have no experience of it. But the experienced man trembles exceedingly in his heart at its approach.

Pindar

I'd hoped not to have a new edition of this, this year.  This one shall surely close the year out..

When I should have started this edition:

December 1, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Fighting has resumed.

December 3, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Israel's offensive has expanded south.

December 5, 2023

Hamas v. Israel.

It's become increasing clear that not only was the Hamas assault on Israel the largest act of violence against civilian Jews since the Holocaust, but the largest example of militaristic armed rape since the Red Army's late stage World War Two actions in Germany (and Eastern Europe).

Like Red Army soldiers, Hamas combatants gang raped Israeli women to the point of death, or raped them and then killed them.  There's no excusing it, or denying it.

There is a question about it, however.  In the case of the Red Army, the organization was officially theist, which in fact gives license to such behavior.  In the case of Hamas, the organization is officially Islamic, and while the Koran does sanction taking female sex slaves, it doesn't condone rape outright or rape and murder.  This probably explains the official Hamas denials, but it would seem that an explanation from some other quarter is necessary, even if it will not be exculpatory.

December 6, 2023

Hamas v. Israel.

The US banned extremist Israeli settlers on the West Bank from entry into the U.S.

December 7, 2023

Venezuela v Guyana

Venezuela has dispatched troops to its border with Guyana in support of its claim to Essequibo.

This is a long-running dispute which first erupted in 1841, and it involves half of Guyana.

War is likely.

December 11, 2023

Russia v. Ukraine

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy is globe-trotting seeking support for his country's cause.  He was in Argentina over the weekend to witness the new Argentine President being sworn in, and is traveling to the United States today.

December 13, 2023

Russia v. Ukraine

President Zelenskyy addressed Congress yesterday.  It's becoming increasingly clear that Congress will not pass a new aid package this year due to linkage of aid to Ukraine to getting something addressed on the US border, the latter of which is a genuine crisis.

Hamas v. Israel

Israel is flooding Hamas tunnels with seawater in Gaza.

The United Nations voted 153 to 10 with 23 abstentions in favor of a ceasefire in Gaza.

President Biden termed Israeli bombing in Gaza as "indiscriminate".

US National Guard units are being called up for deployment to the Horn of Africa.

December 16, 2023

US/Mexican Border Crisis

Arizona's Democratic Governor, Katie Hobbs, activated elements of the Arizona National Guard in order to deploy them to the state's border with Mexico.  In doing so she stated that the Federal Government's decision to close a legal port of entry in Arizona "has led to an unmitigated humanitarian crisis."

Her activation order reads:


At this point, this is completely out of hand and is in fact a major failure by the Administration.

Russo Ukrainian War

December 26, 2023.  Boxing Day

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine damaged the landing ship Novocherkassk in a missile strike on a Crimean Port yesterday.

December 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

It's being reported that Russia is making back channel communications that it's open to a cessation of the war, provided a cessation leaves Russia with the ability to assert it achieved its goals.

The Russians have taken Marinka in Donetsk Oblast.

Hamas v. Israel.

Israel has expended its operations to Central Gaza.  

It's reported that 20,000 Palestinians have been killed to date in the war.

December 28, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

From the Department of Defense:

DOD Announces Aid Package for Ukraine

Dec. 27, 2023 | By Joseph Clark

The Defense Department today announced a security assistance package for Ukraine valued at up to $250 million. 

The package includes air defense capabilities, artillery and antitank weapons and other equipment to help Ukraine in its continued fight to counter Russia’s unprovoked invasion.  

The latest round of assistance marks the 54th drawdown of military equipment for Ukraine from DOD inventories since August 2021. 

It comes amid negotiations on Capitol Hill over President Joe Biden’s supplemental request to Congress to continue critical funding for military and humanitarian aid for Ukraine.  

Defense officials have warned that, without action from Congress, further U.S. assistance for Ukraine could be in jeopardy at a critical time as Russia’s war approaches the two-year mark.  

"We would, again, continue to urge the passage of the supplemental that we've submitted," Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Maj. Gen. Pat Ryder said in a briefing last week. 

"As you look at the situation that Ukraine finds itself in, we will obviously continue to support them," Ryder said. "But it is imperative that we have the funds needed to ensure that they get the most urgent battlefield capabilities that they require." 

Spotlight: Support for Ukraine

In a recent letter to lawmakers, DOD comptroller Michael J. McCord said the department would be obligating the remaining $1 billion in funds authorized by Congress to replace U.S. inventories of weapons provided to Ukraine by the end of this month. 

The security assistance package announced today is likely the last until Congress authorizes additional funds. 

Earlier this month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy traveled to Washington to meet with Biden, defense officials and lawmakers. During those talks, Zelenskyy extended his gratitude for the United States' support and underscored his country’s urgent need for that support to continue. 

After meeting with Zelenskyy at the White House, Biden pledged that the U.S. "will not walk away from Ukraine," as he implored lawmakers to authorize additional funding. 

"The brave people in Ukraine have defied Putin's will at every turn, backed by the strong and unwavering support of the United States and our allies and partners in more than 50 nations in Europe and the Indo-Pacific," Biden said. "Ukraine will emerge from this war proud, free and firmly rooted in the West unless we walk away." 

He said he would continue to provide U.S. military assistance for as long as congressionally approved funds are available.  

"Without supplemental funding, we are rapidly coming to an end of our ability to help Ukraine respond to the urgent operational demands that it has," he said. 

"Putin is banking on the United States failing to deliver for Ukraine," he continued. "We must prove him wrong."   

In introductory remarks ahead of Zelenskyy's address at National Defense University in Washington, Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin III also underscored the United States' "unshakable" commitment to supporting Ukraine as it defends itself against Russian aggression. 

"Ukraine matters profoundly to America's security and to the trajectory of global security in the 21st century," Austin said. "That's why the United States has committed more than $44 billion in security assistance to Ukraine's brave defenders." He added that the U.S.-led coalition of allies and partners have also contributed more than $37 billion in security assistance to Ukraine.  

Austin said those contributions include capabilities that "are making a crucial difference on the battlefield" and have helped Ukraine retake more than half of the territory seized by Russia since February 2022. 

He said the U.S. and its allies and partners remain "determined to help Ukraine consolidate and extend its battlefield gains and to build a future force that can ward off Russian aggression in the years ahead."
From ISW:

Ukrainian drone footage published on December 27 showed another Russian execution of Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs) near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast.[1] The geolocated video shows Russian servicemen shooting three Ukrainian soldiers whom Russian forces captured in a tree line west of Verbove (east of Robotyne). The video later depicts one Russian soldier shooting an already dead Ukrainian serviceman again at close range.[2] The Ukrainian Prosecutor General‘s Office announced that it opened an investigation into Russian forces violating the laws and customs of war in addition to premeditated murder.[3] The Ukrainian Prosecutor General’s Office stated this incident occurred on an unspecified date in December 2023.[4] ISW previously reported observing drone footage of Russian servicemen using Ukrainian POWs as human shields near Robotyne on December 13.[5] The killing of POWs violates Article III of the Geneva Convention on the laws of armed conflict.[6]
December 29, 2023

Iraq

From ISW: 

Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al Sudani announced that his administration will begin procedures to remove International Coalition forces from Iraq during a press conference on December 28, likely due to pressure from Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. These militias have used legal, military, and political pressure in recent weeks to expel US forces, as CTP-ISW previously assessed. 

December 31, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians shelled and struck with drones the Russian city of Belgorod with artillery, killing 21 people, including three children. The raid was likely a retaliatory raid for recent, and ongoing, missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities.

US Mexico Board Crisis

From the AP:

Mexico and Venezuela announced Saturday that they restarted repatriation flights of Venezuelans migrants in Mexico, the latest move by countries in the region to take on a flood of people traveling north to the United States.

The move comes as authorities say at least 10,000 migrants a day arrived at the U.S.-Mexico border, many of them asylum seekers, and a migrant caravan of thousands of people from across the region — largely Venezuelans — trekked through southern Mexico this past week.

Hamas Israeli War

Also from the AP:

BEIRUT (AP) — The U.S. military said Sunday it shot down two anti-ship ballistic missiles fired toward a container ship by Yemen’s Houthi rebels in the Red Sea. Hours later, four boats tried to attack the same ship, but U.S. forces opened fire, killing several of the armed crews, the U.S. Central Command said. No one was injured on the ship.

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part XI. Our Sins coming back to haunt us edition.

Sunday, December 17, 2023

Friday, December 17, 1943. Black Sheep Raid.

F4U Corsair at the Natrona County International Airport, 1985.  The Black Sheep flew Corsairs.

Marine Attack Squadron 214, the "Black Sheep", made use of the fighter sweep technique for the first time, sending 76 fighters over Rabaul.

The Battle of San Pietro Infine ended in an Allied victory.

The Magnuson Act, which repealed the Chinese Exclusion Act, was signed into law.

Statement on Signing the Bill to Repeal the Chinese Exclusion Laws.

December 17, 1943

It is with particular pride and pleasure that I have today signed the bill repealing the Chinese Exclusion Laws. The Chinese people, I am sure, will take pleasure in knowing that this represents a manifestation on the part of the American people of their affection and regard.

An unfortunate barrier between allies has been removed. The war effort in the Far East can now be carried on with a greater vigor and a larger understanding of our common purpose.

Franklin Roosevelt. 

President Roosevelt announced Wright Flyer would be returned from the United Kingdom and displayed at the Smithsonian.  The Wrights had allowed the flyer to go to the UK after the Smithsonian and originally refused to recognize their flight at Kitty Hawk as the first powered flight.

Friday, December 15, 2023

Saturday December 17, 1923. Headlines obsolete and current.

 

Sometimes, the headlines are rather similar to what we read today.  Aliens smuggled into U.S. "wholesale".  Mass shooting.  Others are thankfully firmly cemented in the past.

And some are just weird.


And then things stay the same in other ways:


Fascists Black Shirt Commandant General of the Blackshirts, Cpt. Cesare Maria De Vecchi, arrived in Mogadishu to take office as the colonial governor of Italian Somaliland, which would require military expeditions into its more remote regions.

He had started out in life as a lawyer before his fascist role.  After the Italian surrender in 1943, he had allowed German troops into areas under his command, but nonetheless was condemned to death by the Social Republic.  He went into hiding and died of natural causes in 1959, having been briefly involved in the post war neo fascist movement.

William Butler Yeats delivered his Nobel address.

Turkey and Hungary entered into a treaty of friendship.

A patent was applied for in the UK for the pioneering Celestion electric speaker for radios.


Saturday, September 30, 2023

Saturday, September 23, 2023

When the history is written, and Donald Trump and the populist right are discussed winning the 2024 Election. . .

the complete failure of the Government to do anything about out of control illegal immigration or what causes it will be part of the reason why.

For decades, the Government not only hasn't addressed this, both political parties have conspired not to. Now the Democratic Party is at the point where it simply can't, and won't.  President Biden has acted to provide 500,000 "temporary" work visas for Venezuelans.  

Those will not be temporary.

Americans in favor of massive immigration like to point out how the nation benefits from getting the best and brightest of other nations through immigration, something that may have made sense before the country became overpopulated, which it now is. But that's not what we're doing with Central and South Americans.  We're taking in a population that's essentially at a modern peasantry level.  Surely, they're not stupid by any means, but they're not well-educated as a rule, and there's been no control of any kind. So, while we take in thousands of innocent hardworking people, who will depress American wages in the blue collar fields they enter, we also take in criminals, which we are well aware of.

These populations are fleeing their messed up countries. They deserve sympathy, and assistance.  But they may deserve the sort of sympathy that in 2023 we can't really bring ourselves to provide. The massive numbers of Venezuelans that are entering the country would have resulted, in 1913, for example, in a forced removal of the Venezuelan government and its replacement with a competent one.  We don't do that anymore, although we did in Central America as late as the 1960s.

I'm not suggesting that we invade Venezuela, or Guatemala, but I am suggesting we take some sort of action other than simply taking in their entire population.  These countries should, and could, do well. Being too much of a wimp to take action while you watch, in essence, your neighbor beat up his wife isn't being a good neighbor.

And there's a point at which this cannot be endured, and we've passed it.

But this Administration isn't addressing it, and Donald Trump's campaign will.  Thousands of voters who would otherwise have nothing else to do with him, will start to consider him, particularly if they live in areas that are impacted by the human wave, which will soon be everywhere.

These people are people. They deserve our help and sympathy. But simply inviting the entire population in doesn't make things better there, or here.

Saturday, July 1, 2023

Sunday, July 1, 1923. Chinese exclusion and untimely death.

For those who may have followed yesterday's drama about a policeman (actually sheriff's officer) shooting into a car that refused to dim its headlights, the story plays out today:


The paper was just packed with accidental and untimely death, for that matter.

The Chinese Immigration Act, which we posted about earlier, and which banned Chinese immigrants from entering Canada, save for a few exceptions, came into effect.

A Rin Tin Tin movie was released.



Friday, June 30, 2023

Can't win for losing. Supreme Court Strikes Down Affirmative Action.

For the reasons provided above, the Harvard and UNC admissions programs cannot be reconciled with the guarantees of the Equal Protection Clause. Both programs lack sufficiently focused and measurable objectives warranting the use of race, unavoidably employ race in a negative manner, involve racial stereotyping, and lack meaningful end points. We have never permitted admissions programs to work in that way, and we will not do so today.

At the same time, as all parties agree, nothing in this opinion should be construed as prohibiting universities from considering an applicant’s discussion of how race affected his or her life, be it through discrimination, inspiration, or otherwise. See, e.g., 4 App. in No. 21–707, at 1725– 1726, 1741; Tr. of Oral Arg. in No. 20–1199, at 10. But, despite the dissent’s assertion to the contrary, universities may not simply establish through application essays or other means the regime we hold unlawful today. (A dissenting opinion is generally not the best source of legal advice on how to comply with the majority opinion.) “[W]hat cannot be done directly cannot be done indirectly. The Constitution deals with substance, not shadows,” and the prohibition against racial discrimination is “levelled at the thing,not the name.” Cummings v. Missouri, 4 Wall. 277, 325 (1867). A benefit to a student who overcame racial discrimination, for example, must be tied to that student’s courage and determination. Or a benefit to a student whose heritage or culture motivated him or her to assume a leadership role or attain a particular goal must be tied to that student’s unique ability to contribute to the university. In other words, the student must be treated based on his or her experiences as an individual—not on the basis of race.

Many universities have for too long done just the opposite. And in doing so, they have concluded, wrongly, that the touchstone of an individual’s identity is not challenges bested, skills built, or lessons learned but the color of their skin. Our constitutional history does not tolerate that choice.

The judgments of the Court of Appeals for the First Circuit and of the District Court for the Middle District of North Carolina are reversed.

It is so ordered.

After a series of decisions on cases which liberal pundits were in self afflicted angst about in which the Court didn't realize their fears, the Court finally did realize one and struck down affirmative action admission into universities, something it warned it would do 25 years ago.

The reason is simple. Race based admission is clearly violative of US law and the equal protection clause. That was always known, with the Court allowing this exception in order to attempt to redress prior racism.  As noted, it had already stated there was a day when this would end.  The Court had been signalling that it would do this for years.

Indeed, while not the main point in this entry, it can't help be noted that when the Court preserves a policy like this one, which it did last week with the also race based Indian Child Welfare Act, liberals are pretty much mute on it.  There are no howls of protest from anyone, but no accolades either.  Political liberals received two (expected, in reality) victories from the Court in two weeks that they'd been all in a lather regarding. They seemed almost disappointed to have nothing to complain about, until this case, which gave them one.

Predictably, the left/Democrats reacted as if this is a disaster.  It isn't.  Joe Biden instantly reacted.  Michele Obama, who has a much better basis to react, also made a statement, pointing out that she was a beneficiary of the policy, which she was.  That's fine, but that doesn't mean that the policy needed to be preserved in perpetuity.

At some point, it's worth noting, these policies become unfair in and of themselves.  Not instantly, but over time, when they've redressed what they were designed to.  The question is when, and where.  A good argument could be made, for example, that as for the nation's traditionally largest minority, African Americans, this policy had run its course.  In regard to Native Americans?  Not so much.

Critics will point out that poverty and all the ills that accompany it still afflict African Americans at disproportionate levels, and that's true. The question then becomes why these policies, which have helped, don't seem to be able to bridge the final gap.  A whole series of uncomfortable issues are then raised, which the right and the left will turn a blind eye to. For one thing, immigration disproportionately hurts African Americans, which they are well aware of.  Social programs that accidentally encouraged the break-up of families and single parenthood hit blacks first, and then spread to whites, helping to accidentally severely damage American family structures and cause poverty.  Due to the Civil Rights movement, African Americans became a Democratic base, which was in turn abandoned by the Democrats much like Hard Hat Democrats were, leaving them politically disenfranchised.  Black membership in the GOP has only recently increased (although it notably has), as the black middle class and traditionally socially conservative black community has migrated towards it, but that migration was severely hindered by the legacy of Reagan's Southern Strategy, which brought Southern (and Rust Belt) Democrats into the party and with it populism and closeted racism.

While the left will howl in agony on this decision, it won't really do anything that isn't solidly grounded in the 1960s, and 70s, and for that matter probably moribund, about the ongoing systemic problems.  Pundits who are in favor of institutionalizing every child during the day will come out mad, but they won't dare suggest that immigrants take African American entry level jobs.  Nobody is going to suggest taking a second look at social programs that encourage women of all races to marry the government and fathers to abandon their offspring, something that Tip O'Neill, a Democrat, noted in regard to the African American family before it spread to the white family.  The usual suspects will have the usual solutions and the usual complaints, all of which aren't working to push a determinative solution to this set of problems.

Hardly noted, yet, we should note here, is that this decision, just like Obergefell and Heller, will have a longer reach than people now seem to note.  If college affirmative action is illegal, then similar race based programs (save for ones involving Native Americans, who are subject to the Indian Commerce Clause) are as well. And maybe so are gender based ones, including ones that take into account the ever expanding phony categories of genders that progressive add to every day.  In other words, if programs that favor minority admission into university are invalid, probably Federal Government policies that favor women owned companies over others are as well.

Indeed, they should be.

Societies have an obligation to work towards equality before the law, and before society, for all.  But the essence of working on a problem is solving it.  The subject policy was successful for a long time, but this institutionalized favoritism was no longer working to a large degree, and for that matter, in some instances, impacting others simply because of their race.  It's not 1963, 1973, or 1983 any longer.  New thoughts on old problems should be applied.

Some of those new thoughts, frankly, should be to what extent must we continue to have a 1883 view of the country as if it has vast unpopulated domains to settle that it needs to import to fill.  Another might be, however, that American society really has fundamentally changed on race even within the last 20 years.  While racism remains, and the Obama and Trump eras seem to have boiled it back up, for different reasons, a lot of street level racism really is gone.  For one thing, seeing multiracial couples with multiracial children no longer causes anyone to bat an eye anymore, and that wasn't true as recently as 20 years ago.  We may be a lot further down this road than anyone suspects.

Saturday, June 30, 1923. Bombing the Hochfeld Bridge.

A bomb detonated on the Hochfeld railway bridge in the German city of Duisburg, Westphalia while a Belgian troop train was crossing the bridge, killing eight Belgian soldiers and two German civilians.  Forty three others were injured.  The bomb was in a toilet of the train itself.


The mayor of Hochfeld and twelve others were arrested as suspects.

A new bridge would be built nearby, using parts of the old bridge structure, being completed in 1927.  It was rendered inoperable on May 22, 1944, by an Allied aerial bomb.  The Germans in turn would blow the bridge again on May 4, 1945, but the American Army built a temporary structure to repair it on May 8, 1945, which was dubbed the "Victory Bridge".

\
A new bridge span was completed in 1949.  It still uses parts of the original structure.

The Country Gentleman had an illustration of a Civil War veteran Zouave cleaning his Civil War era rifle, a bittersweet illustration as the war was now some sixty years in the past and Civil War veterans were disappearing daily.


The Saturday Evening Post featured a Leyendecker of a corpulent British soldier saluting a child patriot.

Sometimes the news from a century ago reads an awful lot like today's.


Harding was in Gardiner, Montana and Yellowstone National Park on his Voyage of Understanding.

Sunday, June 4, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina

 

An earlier humanitarian crisis.

May 12, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

Not in the category of war, but sort of an invasion, Title 42 expired last night and a flood of asylum seekers and others are anticipated to cross the border.

This is a crisis for the US that cannot be ignored.  It is effectively an invasion of sorts, which if not addressed will have dire humanitarian and economic consequences in the United States and imperil the US's already frankly teetering democracy.  Failing to come up with something has already created a dire humanitarian crisis in northern Mexico, which has, under its new leadership, lost patience with the United States.  Some recent polls suggest that a majority of Texans wish to leave the union, with this being among the major causes.  The migrant flood has already effectively destroyed aspects of civil life in cities along the border.

Prior to the 1970s, the United States would have intervened militarily in the failed states which are the home countries of the flood of desperate humanity.  We no longer do such things, but this does bring up grave moral issues, among them being the toleration of pretending that the source countries have effective governments while their populations remove themselves for the American border.  In the name of being a peaceable better neighbor, we've allowed countries to descend into chaos, and yet in this day and age gunboat diplomacy is presumably unthinkable.

What's to be done?

Whatever that is, there's little confidence in the current administration's ability to effectively do it, and the Republican Party is using the crisis to make political hay.  Dithering, however, is contributing to it.  Immediate action on the crisis is required, and a major reform of the US's already then naive circa 1970s immigration laws needs to take place.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zylenskyy announced yesterday that Ukraine has delayed its Spring offensive due to a lack of ammunition.

A leader making such an announcement is phenomenal, and partially for that reason, there's reason to wonder about the statement.  Still, it's been remarkable how little has occurred since the muddy seasons, presumably, has ended.

Added to that, quite frankly, if this is true, it causes grave reasons for concern.

The United Kingdom has supplied new long range cruise missiles to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces have broken through Russian lines at Bakhmut.

The Russians have seized the Cathedral of the Orthodox Church of Ukraine in Simferopol, an area that they occupy.

May 13, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

The predicted chaos did not ensue yesterday, which doesn't mean it's not arriving.

I split out the entry on this to a separate item, which I'll refer to here.

Russo Ukrainian War

In a technological game of chess, the Russians attempted to destroy a Patriot missile battery only to have the Patriots shoot the hypersonic missiles.

Now we know that Patriots can do that.

May 13, cont.

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy is in Rome.  He's met with the Italian Prime Minister Meloni, and is now meeting with the Pope.

May 14, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarusian President Lukashenko is gravely ill.

What happens in regard to his country's position on the conflict, should he die, is a wildcard.

For the first time in the war, four Russian aircraft, two jets and two helicopters were shot down inside of Russia itself.

May 15, 2023

Mexican Border Crisis

So far, migrant crossings into the US have actually dropped.

The lapse of Title 42 was a topic on the weekend shows.  Of interest, the Democratic responses is always, basically, how to amend the law to make the process of taking in a flood of people more orderly, not addressing if the flood needs to be stemmed or stopped.

Russo Ukrainian War

On the weekend shows, there was much discussion of Trump's refusal to take a stand over supporting Ukraine in the war.

Are we surprised?  Trump has always had some sort of weird relationship with Putin.

May 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The 501st Separate Marine Infantry Battalion which surrendered in Mariupol last Spring were betrayed by a logistical officer who was cooperating with the Russians, effectively tricking them into surrendering, according to a Ukrainian investigation.

Regarding this sort of activity:

Leaked US intelligence accessed by The Washington Post indicates that Wagner Group financier Yevgeniy Prigozhin offered to disclose the locations of Russian positions to Ukrainian intelligence in exchange for Bakhmut.[1] The Washington Post reported on May 15 that Prigozhin offered the Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) information about Russian troop positions in exchange for a Ukrainian withdrawal from Bakhmut, and two Ukrainian unnamed officials confirmed that Prigozhin had spoken to GUR officials on numerous occasions. GUR officials reportedly rejected Prigozhin’s offer because they did not trust Prigozhin, and some documents indicate that Kyiv suspects that the Kremlin is aware of Prigozhin’s communication with Ukrainian intelligence. The Washington Post reported that Prigozhin urged Ukrainian officials to attack Russian forces and revealed the problems that the Russian forces are facing with morale and ammunition stocks. The Washington Post published an interview with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on May 13 about GUR Chief Major General Kyrylo Budanov’s interactions with Prigozhin and his operatives in Africa in which Zelensky did not confirm Ukraine’s contacts with Prigozhin.[2]

May 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The United States, Portugal and Denmark will train Ukrainian pilots on F-16s.

Counteroffensive?  Still no signs of one.

May 21, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are claiming to have taken Bakhmut, although it remains unclear if they have.  ISW regards the capture, if it occurred, as tactically insignificant.

Zelenskyy is at the G7 seeking ongoing support for Ukraine.

Italy may also start training Ukrainian pilots.

Mexican Border Crisis\

Mexico, also plagued by the immigration crisis, is flying migrants south, away from the US border, and bussing migrants away from the Guatemalan border.

Camps that are some distance north of the southern Mexican border predominately house Haitian migrants.

Sudanese Civil War

The fighting factions of the Sudanese military agreed to a seven-day cease fire.  The US and Saudi Arabia brokered the hiatus in fighting.

May 22, 2023

Papua New Guinea/United States

Papua New Guinea and the US will sign a defense pact aimed at countering China.

May 23, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Anti Putin Russians fighting with Ukraine entered Belgorod Oblast.  The Russians are complaining about it, but why, after invading Ukraine, they'd be upset by having Ukrainian allied forces invade them, is hard to fathom.

The incursion, which has only crossed a limited area of the border, has seen the forces which engaged in it dig in.

Wagner forces are leaving Bakhmut, after having taken it, in order to turn it over to the Russian Army.  Apparently they intend to refit elsewhere.  Ukrainian forces have advanced around the city to some extent.

May 28, 2023

Iran & Afghanistan

Iran and Taliban forces exchanged gun fire on their border in a fight that is over water rights.

May 30, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Moscow was hit by drones yesterday.  Ukraine has denied involvement.

The Russians hit Ukraine with missile and drone attacks every day.  Their frequency is why we don't report them here.

May 31, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine hit a Russian refinery on the Black Sea today with drones.

June 1, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia claimed to have destroyed Ukraine's last remaining warship yesterday.

June 4, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy announced that Ukraine is ready to launch its counteroffensive.

Declaring something like that is quite odd, so its hard to know what to make of it.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 4. Бездоріжжя


Related threads:


Wednesday, May 24, 2023

Mid Week At Work. And it proves true in other countries as well.

The Times:

Brexit is about to give us a problem with this, though. Karl Marx was right: wages won’t rise when there’s spare labour available, his “reserve army” of the unemployed. The capitalist doesn’t have to increase pay to gain more workers if there’s a squad of the starving eager to labour for a crust. But if there are no unemployed, labour must be tempted away from other employers, and one’s own workers have to be pampered so they do not leave. When capitalists compete for the labour they profit from, wages rise.

Britain’s reserve army of workers now resides in Wroclaw, Vilnius, Brno, the cities of eastern Europe. The Polish plumbers of lore did flood in and when the work dried up they ebbed away again. The net effect of Brexit will be that British wages rise as the labour force shrinks and employers have to compete for the sweat of hand and brow.

In spite of what economists like Robert Reich like to admit, and pundit Chuck Todd freely does without realizing what he's saying, is that the old "Americans won't do that job", or in this case, the British, simply isn't true.  Britain's reserve army of workers was in Poland, and the U.S. all over the globe but particularly in Central America.  COVID dried that supply up, and US wages rose.

Some, at least, of what we are seeing in terms of inflation, while inflationary, is actually caused by wages adjusting to their natural level.  Economist always like to maintain this isn't true, but the actual experiment on it shows it is, in fact.

Thursday, May 11, 2023

Some basic economics, for economists


The simple reason being, economist grasp almost nothing about the economy and how it actually works, on a more existential level.

Including, even why the economy exists.

And politicians, speaking about the economy, don't look at the whole, but the part, as the whole isn't very satisfactory in a right/left construct.

Indeed, left wing politicians would be horrified by a real deep reform of the economy in ways that would actually work, as would right wing politicians.

Witness the latest by economist Robert Reich:

The economic message that will get Biden reelected and give Dems a majority in both Houses of Congress

Indeed, let's break them down and look at the uncomfortable truth.

The economic goal should be more jobs at higher wages. Right?

Let's start there.  That seems reasonable enough, so I'll basically concede it. But perhaps a better position would be to state that the economic goal would be more worthwhile jobs that allow for individual family independence, at middle class reasonable wages. 

Because, what's an economy for? To serve people.

It isn't really "more decent jobs at higher wages".  Indeed, it would really be all jobs at family supporting wages.  That's not really the same thing.

I don't know that Reich would disagree with that, but it's important to keep it in overall mind.  Economist tend to think that all jobs are super nifty, not matter what they are, as long as 100% of everyone who can work is working, and for good wages.  

Actual people, however, don't think that way. They want decent jobs worth doing to support themselves, and their families if they have one, and most people do.

The irony here is that the left and the right have come around to the same position on this, over the year.  It's a very Soviet, warehouse the children you unfortunately had so that everyone can work, until they are old, of course, as the Boomer run the economy and it's okay if they retire.

We continue.

Yet the Fed, corporate economists, and the GOP have turned the goal upside down — into fewer jobs and lower wages. Otherwise, they say, we’ll face more inflation.

Bob can't quite seem to grasp that unless an overheated economy is slowed down, wages erode.  And the Fed, etc., isn't trying to depress wages.  Inflation itself erodes wages.  They're trying to slow inflation in the only method known to work.

He knows that, but he has a pet thesis that is, as he would put it: 

Rubbish.

And here, several paragraphs later, is the thesis. 

The Fed has raised borrowing costs at 10 consecutive meetings, pushing its benchmark rate to over 5 percent. Yet inflation has barely budged. In April, it dropped to 4.9 percent (year-over-year) from 5 percent in March — according to Wednesday’s Labor Bureau data.

Why are the Fed’s rate hikes having so little effect?

Actually, historically, that's not bad.

An ideal inflation rate would be 0%, or quite frankly slight, perhaps 1% or 2% deflation, to recover some lost ground.  5%, however, is headed in the right direction.  3% for much of my life was regarded as basically no inflation at all, and the extremely low inflationary rates we had until COVID were simply extraordinary.

Oh, COVID, remember that? The thing that closed the ports and kept good from coming in, reminding Americans that we make nothing.

A thing like that could almost have been inflationary.

A think like that may also have served to remind Americans that some of the jobs they had left, pre COVID, were awful.  Note the big decrease in long haul truck drivers, employees in an industry that had already seen a massive departure of Americans in favor of foreign nationals, and which is effectively subsidized, as we've noted elsewhere.

It's an awful job.  It's almost as if we might want to think about doing this more efficiently.

If only private companies could be induced to ship things by rail. . . .oh wait. . . 

Anyhow, raising interest rates hasn't worked as it hasn't been high enough, that's why.  5% is a joke.  It ought to be at least 8%.

And, additionally, because this inflationary cycle is global, that's also why.

Because, left wing economist, global food prices and energy prices have risen dramatically as a former far left wing operative, now politicians, and a person with a strange relationship (listening right wing politicians) with Donald J. Trump, has invaded a neighbor resulting in the first peer to peer, large scale, conventional war since the Korean War.

That's a lot of the reason why.

But, left wing economist states:

Because inflation is not being propelled by an overheated economy. It’s being propelled by overheated profits.

Okay, I'm a distributist, and I'd favor addressing this to the element it's the truth, but it's just frankly not very true.   One basic fact is that those supposedly profiteering business are taking in money that's worth less every day.  No wonder they feel they have to take in more.

But Bob says:

So, what’s causing inflation? Corporations with enough monopoly power to raise their prices and fatten their profits — which the Fed’s rate hikes barely affect.

Okay, well then let's go to a Distributist economy and limit the number of areas business enterprises can operate the corporate business form.  That would be extremely deflationary, make for more good jobs at a wider level, and be much more stable.  It'd do a whole lot more than raising taxes, as Bob suggest, which would be most likely passed on to everyone else.

Any regular economist in favor of that?

Absolute not, as they're all really just corporate capitalist economist and favor slightly tinkering with the mechanics of things. Basically, the difference between a conservative economist and a liberal economist is the difference motor heads of the 70s exhibited on whether they were Holly Carb or Edlebrock fans.

Big whoop.

But here's another uncomfortable truth.  Let's go back to the first item.

The economic goal should be more jobs at higher wages. Right?

Part of the reason that wages rose is that during COVID there was a big decrease in immigration, legal and illegal, into the United States.

For years, economist on the left and right have claimed that immigrants take jobs that Americans won't, never mind that they take what are frankly a lot of middle class jobs in some industries.  As they didn't come in, Americans took those jobs, but demanded living wages.

Supposedly, in the economist world, immigration had no impact on inflation, or jobs, and in fact boosted the economy.  They may have boosted the economy, but its now conclusively demonstrated that they did so by depressing wages.

And this worked an injustice for the native born, including the native born poor.  This was always known at some level as it provided the fuel to the occasional riots and domestic strife at the inner city urban level.

This has also caused liberals like commentator Chuck Todd to directly claim that we're experiencing inflation as we aren't seeing immigrants come in. But what this implicitly admits is that the high American immigration rate operates to keep wages low, and that is what was depressing inflation.  Absent the high immigration levels, wages would rise to their natural level.

And that's what they've been doing.

Setting aside Donald Trump's pal, Vlad "if Czar Nikki owned I still do" Putin, part of what is going on is at attempt at wage stabilization, at American living wage levels, something that was frustrated by decades of wage erosion due to immigration.

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Thursday, May 10, 1923. The Chicago Tribune notes The Great Migration.


The epic mass exodus of African Americans from the South had been on for a decade, and it was on in such numbers now that it could not be ignored.


Up until 1910, 90% of the black population of the United States lived in the South, a legacy of slavery.  Starting in the 1910s, after twenty years of the restoration of die hard segregation following the collapse of Reconstruction, followed by the rise of Southern racism in the form of The Lost Cause myth, and aided by improved transportation, they began to leave for Northern cities.  European immigration collapsed during World War One, and employment opportunities increased, boosting the departure rate.

The massive social trend continued up into the early 1970s, by which time it had transformed the ethnic map of the country.

Thursday, May 4, 2023

Friday, May 4, 1923. Trends of the 20s.

Canada banned Chinese from entering the country unless they were diplomats, children born in Canada, merchants, or university students.

The law was repealed in 1946. Between 1923 and 1946 only 15 Chinese immigrants were accepted into Canada. The effect of the law, which precluded familiar ties and lead to an imbalance of genders, resulted in a decrease in the Chinese population in Canada.

On the same day, this baseball game was played in Toronto's Bayside Park.

Hitler, on the rise, delivered this speech in Munich attacking war reparations, something obligated by the Versailles Treaty, and also urging rearmament.

Thursday, April 27, 2023

Adoption in the past

This is, I admit, inspired by some Twitter outrage about an outrageous comment by a Congressman who is not a serious person.  I'm not going to engage in that topic, as people who are not serious people, do not deserve to be taken seriously.

Rather, I started to wonder how many people, say before 1950, and then again before 1900, grew up in a household where at least one of their parents was not their "natural born parent".

I know of nobody in my family, but I'll bet it's incredibly common.  And for that matter, as my mother came from Quebec, chances are really high that part of our ancestry stems from orphans on the Coffin Ships.  No formal adoption of such orphans was ever done.  It wasn't even really possible.  The Parish Priest just told the Québécois Parishioners that ships were coming in from Ireland, and there would be orphans on them, as their parents would have died crossing the Atlantic. They just went down to the docks and took them home, raising them as their own.  They were French, the children were Irish, but more than anything, they were all Catholic.  Their parentage would not have been kept secret from them, probably, but over time, with French surnames, Irish ones forgotten, nobody would have remembered.

Indeed, while I have some French ancestry, my DNA tracks back nearly 100% to Ireland, even though I know that I have German and French ancestors.  

Chances are high . . . 

Sunday, April 16, 2023

Monday, April 16, 1923.

 Every once in a while a century old paper, and a current one, almost look the same.


Eleven Moscow housing officials were condemned to death for taking bribes.

Friday, September 9, 2022

Teamsters.* They aren't what they used to be. And that's sad in some ways.

Teamster, Toledo Ohio, 1920s.1

It was the only thing in the parking lot.

My 2007 Dodge 3500 that is.

It was parked there, all alone.  My wife took it to work, as I drove the 1997 Dodge 1500 to the shop for an exhaust repair.

A Haliburton driver drove into the lot, apparently one of the numerous misdirected truck drivers that take the exit, wrongly, and need to turn around in the parking lot.  He had plenty of room, but he hit my 3500 anyway.

He was driving a tractor trailer combo.

He was from Nigeria.2

I have nothing against Nigerians.  I've had one friend from Nigeria.  But I have to ask the question.

Are there any American truck drivers anymore?3

I work on trucking accidents quite a bit.  The last one I worked on featured a Polish driver.

In one I'm working on now, the drivers were Somalian.  I had a prior one where a driver was a central African who died driving a pickup truck in the first snowstorm he ever experienced.

Some time ago I worked on one where one of the drivers was Ukrainian.  

I see them all the time where the drivers are Russian.

I used to see them where the drivers were from Mexico.  No more, however.  Mexican drivers made sense, given NAFTA, which makes me wonder who is now driving the trucks in Mexico.

What's going on here?

Supposedly the US has a truck driver shortage to the tune of 80,000 drivers.  By the end of the decade that figure is expected to be 130,000.

Maybe the drivers just are paid so little, in context, that Americans have other options and won't do the job.

Indeed, I think the entire concept of a labor shortage in a country of 300,000,000+, which isn't gaining any more land, is a complete crock.  Truly, at that level of human settlement, if there are jobs going wanting, it makes sense that they be exported overseas.

But you can't, of course, export trucking jobs.

Supposedly the percentage of immigrant truck drivers is around 18.6%, just a little higher than the percentage of immigrants in the workforce, which is 17%.  That demonstrates its own oddities, again, for a country that now is likely exceeding its carrying capacity for human habitation, or at least the capacity at which it doesn't become extremely limiting and overall unpleasant for the inhabitants.  But just considering that, 18% is a lot.

So, might we note, is 17%.  That figure we'd also note resulted in one of Chuck Todd's accidental points against the point he was trying to make in a fairly recent post COVID Meet The Press in which he blamed inflation on the Trump era reduction in immigration, the logic being that the price of labor was going up as we weren't taking in as many immigrants.  And, indeed, that may be a factor, but the point would be that we're artificially keeping wages low by depressing wages by taking in those who are willing to undercut those already here.  It's like shipping jobs overseas, but by importing the overseas workforce instead, with the express intent of keeping wages in the country low.4 

Which brings us to this point in the current inflation finger pointing.  Part of this is just wages being readjusted to the level they should have been at long ago. And part of that, although probably not all that much, can be offset by reducing the obscene wages the upper management at a lot of large American corporations receive.

That aside, the 18.6% doesn't reflect what we're seeing in accidents.

An industry source reports the following:

Research Summary. Using a database of 30 million profiles, Zippia estimates demographics and statistics for heavy truck drivers in the United States. Our estimates are verified against BLS, Census, and current job openings data for accuracy. After extensive research and analysis, Zippia's data science team found that:

Well, I don't know what you make of that other than that truck drivers are, on average, not paid that great.  That probably explains why people don't want to do it.  Living away from home, for wages that aren't as high as you could get doing something else, why would you want to do it?

Twenty mule team.

Which likely explains why we see as many immigrant truck drivers as we do. Whatever they're making here is more than they'd make where they are from.  We noted some of this earlier here, before it really applied directly to us in the form of collision:

Some of those who don't want to go back are truck drivers. The country is short 20,000 truck drivers right now.

In recent years the country has actually imported a lot of truck drivers, something the general public seems largely unaware of.  Anymore, when I read the names of people involved in truck driving accidents, I expect the drivers to be Russian, and I'm actually surprised when they are not.   What happened here overall isn't clear to me, but over the last fifteen years technology has developed to where it's much easier for trucking companies to keep tabs on their truckers while on the road and things have gotten safer. At the same time, this means, as it always has, but perhaps more so, that these guys live on the road.  According to Buttigieg the industry has an 80% annual turnover rate.

An 80% annual turnover rate doesn't sound even remotely possible to me, but that there's a high one wouldn't surprise me.  It's a dangerous job and contrary to what people like to imagine, it doesn't really pay the drivers that well as a rule, or at least fairly often.  Often the drivers are "owner operators" who own their own super expensive semi tractor and who are leasing it to the company they are driving for.  That in turn means that they're often making hefty payments on the truck.  I don't blame anyone for not wanting to do it.

I can blame the nation for putting itself in this situation, however.

Trucking is a subsidized industry, but people don't think of it that way.  Its primary competitor is rail. Railroads put in their own tracks and maintain their own railroad infrastructure. When you see a train, everything you were looking at, from the rails to the cars, were purchased by private enterprise. When you seem a semi tractor, however, it's always traveling on a public conveyance.


It's doing that fairly inefficiently compared to rail.  Rail is incredibly cheap on a cost per mile basis, and it's actually incredibly "green" as well.  It's efficient.  Trucks are nowhere near as efficient in any fashion.  Not even in employment of human resources.  Trains have, anymore, one or two men crews, the same as semi trucks, but they're hauling a lot more per mile than trucks are with just two men.

Well, sooner or later people are going to have to return to work.  When the money runs out, that's the choice you have.

But this isn't going to return to normal. Whether we'll stabilize soon in a new economy, and we better hope that we do, or keep on enduring this, which will be wiping out savings and destroying earning capacity, remains to be seen.  The current Administration will be a key to that. 

What this also shows is the impact of technology.

It was trains, not trucks that moved most American goods and products prior to the 1950s.   We've addresssed that here as well too:

Following the Second World War the U.S. saw a rising expansion of over the road trucking.  By the late 1950s the US was, additionally, overhauling its Interstate highway system via the Defense Department's budget with new "defense" highways, which were much improved compared to the old Interstate highway system.  With the greatly improved roads, by the 1960s, interstate long haul trucking was in an advance state of supplanting the railroads for a lot of American freighting.  At the same time, the diesel engine supplanted the gasoline engine for semi tractors.  A very uncommon engine for motor vehicles in the United States prior to the 1950s, diesels started coming in somewhere in that period and by the 1960s they'd completely replaced gasoline engines for over the road semi tractors.  Now, of course, diesels have become fairly common for heavy pickups as well, and are even starting to appear in the U.S. in light pickup trucks in spite of the higher cost of diesel fuel.


The change was dramatic, although few people can probably fully appreciate that now, as we are so acclimated to trucking.  Thousands of trucks supplanted thousands of rail cars, and entire industries that were once served only by rail came to be served by truck.  The shipping of livestock, for example, which was nearly exclusively a railroad enterprise up into the 1950s is now done entirely by truck, a change which had remarkable impacts as rail shipping required driving the livestock to the railhead, whereas with the trucks they are simply scheduled to arrive at a ranch at a particular time.  Likewise, businesses that at one time located themselves near rail lines, so that they could receive their heavy products by rail, no longer do, as they receive those items by trucks.  For example, pipeyards, once always near a railhead, are not always today.


But here's something I hadn't considered, even thought it's referenced in the post above.

And trucks have become part of the American vehicular fleet in a way that would have been hardly imaginable even 50 years ago.  As they've become more comfortable to drive, and easier to drive, they've been a common family vehicle, which is not what they once were.  Pickup trucks used to be pretty much only owned by people who had some need of them, even if that need was recreational.  Now, they're common everywhere.  Indeed, the Ford F150, Ford's 1/2 ton pickup truck, has been the best-selling vehicle, that's vehicle, not truck, for the past 32 years.  So, so common have trucks become in the United States that one model of 1/2 tone truck is the number one single high selling model of vehicle.  Pretty amazing for a vehicle that started off as utilitarian and industrial.

That is, they've all become more comfortable to drive.

Semi's too.

Early semi tractors were pretty hard to drive.  Transmissions were not synchronized, and the drivers had to be able to double clutch and work two transmission levers simultaneously, while also driving something that had manual steering.  I've actually seen this done, FWIW, on 1950s era 6x6 trucks, although it took somebody who really knew them well to do it. Early truck drivers did, often shifting with both hands while hooking an arm through the steering wheel, something that sound frighteningly dangerous.  By the time I was young, however, big rigs had evolved considerably.  Nonetheless, they still required the ability to really work a manual transmission.

As I haven't kept up on this, it was only fairly recently, due to an item of litigation, that I learned manual transmission trucks are on their way out.  Indeed, almost all of the big rigs you seen on Interstate highways have automatic transmissions.  Trucks coming in and out of oilfield locations, if owned by contractors, are probably manuals, but they're also older as a rule.  If you see new trucks, even there, coming in or out of one, its an automatic.

And frankly, anyone, with just a little driving experience, can drive an automatic transmission semi.  Maybe not well, but you could drive it.

And hence the problem.

By the time I was a college student the romance of truck driving, and yes it was once regarded as romantic, had gone.  Locals started disliking the heavy trucks and the people who drove them, as they were regarded as dangerous.  I recall that coming up, oddly,in a geology class once during which the professor, from rural Montana, noted that he thought the decline in truck drivers was sad, as he had an uncle who was a truck driver when he, the prof, was young, and he was such a good driver.

And he probably was.  This conversation would have occurred around 1983.  The uncle probably drove trucks in the 40s and 50s, when they remained pretty hard to drive. People working skilled equipment are, well, skilled, and skill develops professionalism as a rule.

Now the trucks have become so easy to drive the real skill has faded, and with that, I suspect, the job has become dull in the way that skillless jobs become.  It doesn't pay well, and people don't want to do it, save for those who almost have to in some circumstances.

Footnotes:

*. The name teamsters refer to men who used horses and wagons.  I.e., they drove a team.  That shows us, really, how old the term is, and how old the Teamsters Union is.  Having said that, horse-drawn teams were still in use for some things as late as the 1940s.

1. See footnote above.

A relative of my wife's, I'd note, was a teamster driving 20 mule teams locally when the oilfield still used them and when the refinery required them for heavy construction.  All a thing of the past, but something also requiring vast skill, which is relevant to this discussion.

2.  "He doesn't speak English" was a text I received right away from my wife.  "Russian?" was my reply, suspecting this must be the case.  "Nigerian" came the reply back.

In fact, she knew that right away.  We are friends with a Nigerian Catholic Priest and their accent is very distinct.  She just didn't want to embarrass the man by assuming his nationality, but he volunteered it.  Nigerian accents can be quite difficult to understand, as compared to other African accidents.

3.  I should note that it was clear that truck driving was probably only part of this individuals job.  He was dressed appropriately in FRs and likely was driving to a frac location.  Indeed, he noted he had to get to Shoshoni.  
But this raises its own interesting questions.  His "day boss" came to the location, driving in from Gillette, and taking a lot longer than he estimated it would take him.  The day boss was from Oklahoma or Texas, as his soft southern accent made clear.  The Haliburton trailer was licensed in Oklahoma. Haliburton used to have a yard here, but it no longer does.

I've encountered a lot of Mexican immigrants in oilfield service jobs, but up until recently I didn't encounter any African ones.  This is only the second time that I have, but here too, it's an interesting phenomenon.  For years, it's been a bedrock belief of Wyomingites that the oilfield provides good, high paying, jobs, and that certainly has in fact been true.  But for some time now, quite a few companies are actually staffed by out-of-state crews in some instances.  Locals still work on a lot of crews.  But now we're starting to see, at a very low level, I think, small numbers of immigrants who have come from overseas to work in these industries.

Again, who can blame them?  Nobody. But what is the overall impact on wages and employment?  Right now, probably not much, but some evolution seems to be going on.

4.  This is one of the things that gave rise to Donald Trump and the populist right.  A large number of Trump supporters came out of the Rust Belt Democrats who simply grew tired of having their traditionally well paying manual labor and skilled labor jobs erode economically due to intentionally bringing in an immigrant population that would work for lower wages.  This lead to a strong anti-immigrant feeling amongst them which mirrors a less virulent overall feeling in the country, save amongst liberals, that immigration into the country is at far too high of a rate.

This sense dates back all the way to the 1970s, but repeated generations of Democratic and Republican politicians have flat out ignored it, with the Democrats erroneously believing that every immigrant is a future Democratic voter and the Republicans cynically believing that this serves the interest of industry by keeping wages depressed.  With Trump's express adoption of this long suppressed view, many Rust Belt Democrats bolted their party and became Trump Republicans.

There is a lesson there about ignoring a long held concern of a large section of the country.  Not only has this now come into one of the two parties in force, it's become malignant in certain ways as well.

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Automotive Transportation I: Trucks and Lorries