Monday, July 18, 1921. Start of the workweek.

Pearl Kane, a newspaper "girl" for the Washington Times, on July 18, 1921.

On this first day of the workweek, for most people, and more typically the first day of the workweek then, as opposed to now, the BCG vaccine for tuberculosis was administered for the first time in Paris, France.

Getting tuberculosis is bad.

Getting COVID 19 is bad too.  If you haven't been vaccinated, get vaccinated.

Babe Ruth hit the longest home run in the history of major league baseball, 560 feet, which knocked the ball out of Tiger Stadium.

General Pershing inspected the troops at Camp Humphries, Virginia.

Camp Humphries was also spelled "Humphreys" and is now part of Ft. Belvoir.

It was a very active training range at this time, hosting not only units of the U.S. Army, but also ROTC.

Meanwhile, the United States Army Air Corps spent the day bombing the former German cruiser the SMS Frankfurt off of Virginia's coast.

Well, not the day.  It sank within twenty-six minutes of being hit.

This was all part of Billy Mitchell's effort to prove that aircraft could sink ships, any ship, and that effectively they were now the premier service in the defense of the coast. . . it not more than that.  The Navy didn't particularly like it, and it'd later end up providing part of the background to Mitchell's eventual court marshal.

Maxim Gorky, the still respected Soviet writer who was an occasional tool of the Stalin's wrote a letter on behalf of famine victims in the Soviet Union.

The famine was certainly real, brought on by the forced collectivization of agriculture in the Soviet Union.

Worried.

 

The new "Delta" variant of Covid 19 transmits quicker, and is more deadly, than its predecessors.

And its breaking out in the United States.

Yesterday's Tribune reported that its broken out in Laramie County, which makes sense as its the hub of two interstate highways.  

Wyoming has 35.4% of its population. This means that Delta will break out here, and it will kill people here.

It will.

I don't understand the resistance to the vaccinations.  It's proven as safe as any other vaccine and vaccines are safe.  By not getting vaccinated people are not only putting themselves at risks, but entire communities, and beyond that they are hosting a vaccine for further evolution, making it harder to wipe out long term.  

Careful consideration really need to be given to this topic at this time.  We could wipe this virus out completely.  Or not.  We should wipe it out.*

Footnotes.

*Oddly enough, the vaccine does appear to be wiping out another disease in the SARS family, unintentionally.  It has a much lower transmission rate, and the vaccine is apparently somewhat operative on it, keeping it from spreading.

May 16, 1921. Upheld. Mandatory vaccinations, Capital Gains.

 French-American soprano opera singer Yvonne D'Arle, May 16, 1921.

Showing that the past is the prologue to the future, and that history does seem to repeat itself, a legal challenge to the diphtheria vaccine failed in Denver.  A court in Colorado held that kids could get vaccinated, or stay out of the classroom.

If you've never heard of diphtheria, that's likely because vaccination campaigns and mandatory vaccination has pretty much wiped it out.

Get vaccinated.

It's amazing, I'd note, how long some fights last, or rather how often they occur.  Diphtheria is pretty much a thing of the past, as is polio. Small Pox is a thing of the past, due to vaccinations.

COVID 19 cold be a think of the past if people got vaccinated at the necessary level. 

On this say the U.S. Supreme Court upheld the capital gains tax and the passage of the 18th Amendment.

April 18, 1921. Service.

On this Monday, April 18, 1921, Edith Barnett, who had died serving as an American nurse in far off Siberia, was remembered with a tombstone marked in English and Russian.  She had died of Typhus while serving as a Red Cross nurse there.

Some Gave All: April 18, 1921. "Grave of Edith Barnett of New Yo...:  

April 18, 1921. "Grave of Edith Barnett of New York City. An American Red Cross nurse who died in Siberia, Aug. 15, 1919. Monument placed at Tomsk, Siberia on April 18, 1921. Photograph taken on April 19, 1921"

Ontario voted, in a plebiscite, to ban the sale and importation of alcohol by a 60% margin.  An attempt at repealing the ordinance the following year by the same means failed.

How would you have voted?  I'm not a teetotaler, but I'm sure I would have voted for the measure.

Jacksonville Florida was photographed from the St. John's Bridge.

View of the Jacksonville Florida St John's Bridge, April 18, 1921.

President Harding seems to have had a busy day greeting groups.

Harding with Community House Kids.  I'm not sure who they were, but it appears to probably be a church based group.

Harding and Women's Commission for World Disarmament.  The group obviously did not succeed in its goals.

Gen. Herbert Lord of the Quartermaster Corps received an award consisting of draft horseshoes.

I don't know the actual occasion, but it may have been recognizing his service which was principally in administering its budget.  He'd go on to occupy the position of head of the OMB, although under a different title at the time, in the Harding Administration.

Tragic, no doubt. But is it historically correct and comparatively of value?

Soldiers sick with the Spanish Flu at Ft. Riley, Kansas during World War One.  Ft. Riley is where the Spanish Flu first demonstrably broke out.

Yesterday, we posted this item:

Lex Anteinternet: 500,000. Governor Gordon Orders Flags Be Flown at ...

500,000. Governor Gordon Orders Flags Be Flown at Half-Staff Statewide Through February 26 in Memory of Americans lost to COVID-19

 

Governor Gordon Orders Flags Be Flown at Half-Staff Statewide Through February 26

in Memory of Americans lost to COVID-19 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. - Governor Mark Gordon, pursuant to President Joe Biden's Proclamation remembering the 500,000 Americans lost to COVID-19, has ordered both the U.S. and State of Wyoming flags be flown at half-staff statewide until sunset February 26.

The Presidential Proclamation follows: 

REMEMBERING THE 500,000 AMERICANS LOST TO COVID-19
- - - - - - -

BY THE PRESIDENT OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA

A PROCLAMATION

As of this week during the dark winter of the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 500,000 Americans have now died from the virus. That is more Americans who have died in a single year of this pandemic than in World War I, World War II, and the Vietnam War combined. On this solemn occasion, we reflect on their loss and on their loved ones left behind. We, as a Nation, must remember them so we can begin to heal, to unite, and find purpose as one Nation to defeat this pandemic.

In their memory, the First Lady and I will be joined by the Vice President and the Second Gentleman for a moment of silence at the White House this evening. I ask all Americans to join us as we remember the more than 500,000 of our fellow Americans lost to COVID19 and to observe a moment of silence at sunset. I also hereby order, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and laws of the United States, that the flag of the United States shall be flown at half-staff at the White House and on all public buildings and grounds, at all military posts and naval stations, and on all naval vessels of the Federal Government in the District of Columbia and throughout the United States and its Territories and possessions until sunset February 26, 2021. I also direct that the flag shall be flown at half-staff for the same period at all United States embassies, legations, consular offices, and other facilities abroad, including all military facilities and naval vessels and stations.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-second day of February, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-one, and of the Independence of the United States of America the

two hundred and forty-fifth.

JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR. 

--END--

First of all, let us note that this is a grim and tragic marker.  500,000 lives cut short, and we're not out of the woods yet.  Not by a long shot.

But breaking this down, what does it mean, and is it actually accurate?

First, let me note that what I did was to link in the state's endorsement of President Biden's proclamation. So that we can be sure we're reading it correctly, let's first link in the actual proclamation:

A Proclamation on Remembering the 500,000 Americans Lost to COVID-19

FEBRUARY 22, 2021 • PRESIDENTIAL ACTIONS

As of this week during the dark winter of the COVID-19 pandemic, more than 500,000 Americans have now died from the virus.  That is more Americans who have died in a single year of this pandemic than in World War I, World War II, and the Vietnam War combined.  On this solemn occasion, we reflect on their loss and on their loved ones left behind.  We, as a Nation, must remember them so we can begin to heal, to unite, and find purpose as one Nation to defeat this pandemic.

In their memory, the First Lady and I will be joined by the Vice President and the Second Gentleman for a moment of silence at the White House this evening.  I ask all Americans to join us as we remember the more than 500,000 of our fellow Americans lost to COVID-19 and to observe a moment of silence at sunset.  I also hereby order, by the authority vested in me by the Constitution and laws of the United States, that the flag of the United States shall be flown at half-staff at the White House and on all public buildings and grounds, at all military posts and naval stations, and on all naval vessels of the Federal Government in the District of Columbia and throughout the United States and its Territories and possessions until sunset February 26, 2021.  I also direct that the flag shall be flown at half-staff for the same period at all United States embassies, legations, consular offices, and other facilities abroad, including all military facilities and naval vessels and stations.

IN WITNESS WHEREOF, I have hereunto set my hand this twenty-second day of February, in the year of our Lord two thousand twenty-one, and of the Independence of the United States of America the two hundred and forty-fifth.              

JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

And, as can be seen, the linked in text was in fact correctly quoted by the Governor.  I know that linking that in is pedantic, but we want to be quoting correctly.

And I'm not faulting Governor Gordon or President Biden for the half mast order.  Indeed, I think it may be a useful reminder to the living that this isn't over yet and precautions are still needed.  We certainly don't want to hit the 1,000,000 mark.

None the less, can deaths due to disease really be compared to combat deaths?

Let's start with this, is it correct that the 500,000 tragic deaths amount to "more Americans who have died . .  than in World War I, World War II and the Vietnam War combined"?

116,516 Americans are officially listed as having died in World War I.

405,399 Americans officially lost their lives due to World War Two, although some figures will add in another 2,000.

58,209 Americans were lost in the Vietnam War.

You don't need the aid of a calculator to realize that President Biden is wrong.  500,000 Americans is a lot of lost lives, and it is tragic, but the combined totals of the three wars noted exceed 500,000.  Perhaps not grossly, but they do exceed them.  That's 580,124 lives lost in combat in the three wars noted.*

Or do they?

President Biden here correctly mourns and laments those who have died due to SARS-CoV-2 during this pandemic, but those are lives lost to a viral agent.  I.e., something loose in nature.  Lives lost in war are those lost due to the direct killing action of other men, in one fashion or another.  Now, I don't want to get into the "yeah, but if so and so had done something earlier. . . " type argument here, which just goes down a rat hole and looses point of this.  The point is, that death by infectious disease is inherently incomparable to death due to war.

Indeed, in human experience, death due to lethal pandemic often grossly exceeds death due to war, even if it occurs in the same time frame.

For example, 116,516 Americans died due to combat during World War One.  675,000 Americans died during the same time period due to the Spanish Flu.

Now, that's a useful statistic.  The Spanish Flu Epidemic and the Coronavirus Pandemic are in fact directly comparable as they're both viral pandemics, save for perhaps the argument that the Spanish Flu Pandemic was made worse by World War One, and perhaps caused by World War One. The first argument is undoubtedly correct.

Indeed, for that reason, although we won't develop it here, you could argue that the 116,516 lives lost due to the Great War need to be added to the 675,000 lost due to the Spanish Flu to get a full scale of lives lost due to the global disaster that was the Great War.  And that argument would in fact make a lot of sense.  We have a ways to go, thankfully, before we reach that mark, although we may very well reach it.  That figure is over 719,000 lives lost.

Be that as it may, we also have to keep in mind that the American population was 92,000,000 in the 1910s.  Lets' say it was 100,000,000, even though we were not there yet.

Looked at that way, the 675,000 would be the equivalent of about 2,000,000 deaths today.  For that matter, the World War One combat deaths, which I didn't add into that, would be equivalent to over 300,000 now.

We're not anywhere close to 2,000,000 deaths, thankfully, and hopefully we will have this in check before we are.

Going back more than a century starts becoming really problematic in such analysis, although it is tempting to do so.  Indeed, it can be argued that even going back a century is not a valid comparison as it was before modern medicine to a significant degree.   There were no effective antibiotics at the time, for example, and while antibiotics do absolutely nothing in regard to a virus, it can help keep a viral infection from developing into something else which is lethal.  For example, we just read the other day of the death of George Gipp, who was infected by strep throat that rapidly killed him. Today, that wouldn't occur. And indeed, there were no effective anti virals either.  No wonder the 1918-1919 Spanish Flu was such a killer.

Indeed, we just passed the 75th anniversary of the discovery of penicillin, the great anti biotic.

Still, we can recognize the 1918-19 Flu as there are those still among us, small in number though they are, who are still with us.  Many families retain some memories of the flu (ours does) and its impact.  And our current society is a direct evolution of that one, even though much has changed.  And of course our governments were highly developed at the time, particularly given that the 1918-19 Flu occurred during a time of war, and therefore mass societal mobilization.

For this reason, going back further, is problematic.  For example, what became the United States lost 6,800 men to death by combat during the American Revolution.  17,000 Americans died of disease, however, although its significant that the majority of them were prisoners of war at the time.  The population, however, was a shade under 3,000,000 (and growing incredibly rapidly) which would mean that the equivalent loss, in modern terms, would have been about 680,000 combat deaths and 1,700,000 deaths due to disease in contemporary terms, or about the same disease loss, oddly enough, as the Spanish Flu had in the Great War period in the United States.  But as noted, these figures would be of questionable utility.

So, what does all this tell us?

500,000 deaths is a terrible tragedy, but the frequent comparison to war, while inevitable, really isn't historically or statically valuable except as a loose measuring stick. What that probably tells us, more than anything else, is that as a species we're geared toward understanding loses due to war, so we use those figures as its easy for us to do it, even though that doesn't really tell us anything.  We are, that is, psychologically geared toward thinking about fighting an invading enemy.  We are apparently less psychologically geared towards thinking about fighting an invading virus.

Indeed, the oppose may in fact be true. We've always lived with killer diseases, but we haven't always really understood them very well, and overall the evidence suggest we really still don't quite, on a day to day personal basis. During the 1918-19 pandemic we really didn't get a handle on it.  When inoculations first were introduced some societies around the globe believed all sorts of fanciful scary tales about it.  Some religions eschew them today for reasons that have very little to do with what is found in any faith.  Folk medicines remain just as popular as ever, and included in that are a collection of myths about vaccinations in general and this one in particular.  We remain pretty willing to line up for uniforms when wars come, but much less so to the wearing of uniform masks in times of pandemic.

Footnotes.

*It's interesting how the Korean War, which had a loss of life comparable to Vietnam's, is skipped, as usual, even though the lives lost in that war occurred in a much shorter period of time.

December 14, 1920 Sometimes the headlines are too good to pass up. And the "Gipper" dies of pneumonia.

I realize its unfair, but with the headlines we've had recently, maybe its nice to know that there've been bad ones before.

On the same day the baffled Congress was photographed with guests and young help, or at least the Senate was.

Senator France of Maryland was photographed with a mothers' group from his state.

And the Senate pages were photographed with "Marshall".  As I don't know anything about how this institution works, I don't know if the head of the Senate pages is termed a marshall, or if that was the older gentleman's name. 

The Wyoming State Tribune published an article about the commercialization of Yellowstone National Park.

And coal was in the headlines.

The House of Lords passed an amended version of the Government of Ireland Act of 1920 which meant that a home rule bill had passed that body for the first time, if way too late.

2020 Thanksgiving Reflections.

One of Norman Rockwell's Four Freedoms paintings used as wartime posters, first coming out in 1943.  They were based on his prewar January 1941 speech advocating for these freedoms. At the time of the speech, and certainly at the time of the war, a lot of people didn't have a freedom from want.

In some prior years I've put up a Thanksgiving Day post. Some years, I don't.

There's a lot of hubris in writing a blog, a principal part of that being the thoughts that 1) you have anything meaningful to say; and 2) anyone cares to read it.  In large part, probably neither of those are true, so no blogger should feel compelled to write an entry.  Still, some years. . . 

For a lot of people, this will be a Thanksgiving like no other. Well, rather, like no other one that that we recall. There are certainly plenty of North American Thanksgivings that more strongly resemble this one than we might imagine. * 

After all, the holiday was already fully established as a European religious observation long before the passengers of the Mayflower put in early as they were out of beer (which is in fact why they put in when they did).  We might imagine those early Thanksgiving celebrants looking like they were out of a Rockwell or Leyendecker illustration, but they likely rarely did.

Clean parents, chubby child. . . probably not very accurate for the early colonial period.  Carrying a matchlock on the way to church might be however, and not because they were going to hunt turkeys on the way home.  Illustration by J. C. Leyendecker from November 1917.

Indeed, a lot of the giving of thanks on days like this from prior eras was probably of a much more to the bone nature. The crop didn't fail, when it looked like it might.  The milk cow didn't bloat up and die.  The Algonquian's simply walked by the village a couple of months ago when it looked like they might attack.  That ship on the horizon wasn't a French one and no Troupes de Marne landed to raise the district.  The Spanish didn't arrive from the south.

Freedom from Fear.  For much of human history, most people lived in fear for at least some of the time.

Part of all of that, on top of it, was dealing with political and physical turmoil.

Smallpox arrived and went leaving people, if they were lucky, scarred for live.  The flu came and when it did people died nearly every time.  Horses kicked people in the ribs and they died in agony a few days later.  Dog and cat bites turned septic.  Tooth infections were caught too late causing fevers that went right to the brain and then on to death.

Storms came with only hours, or minutes, warning.  Hurricanes arrived with no notice.  Tornadoes ripped through villages at random.  Hail destroyed crops.  Early winters froze the crops in the ground. Spring thaws came suddenly and swept animals, houses, and people away.  Snow blocked travel and locked people who still had to work outdoors during the winter indoors.  People got lost, and then were lost forever.  Seafarers disappeared in winter storms and were never heard of again, or if they were they were, their washed up bodies were identified by the patterns in their wool sweaters, unique to individual villages, like dog tags of their day.

And added to that, there was the additional turmoil of vast struggles beyond people's control.  Catholics lived in fear of oppression from Protestants.  Protestant dissenters lived in fear of the Established Church.  Jews lived in fear of everyone.  Forces in England struggled against the Crown and each other and their fights spilled out to their colonies.  Native Americans lived in fear of a European population of an expansive nature that seemed to defy the laws of nature.  Africans lived in fear of slavers and if that fate befell them they thereafter lived in lifelong despair.

Freedom of Worship. Even this American value didn't come about until the scriveners of the Constitution prevented the United States from creating a state religion.  At the time of the Revolution the Congress had declared the Crown's tolerance of Catholicism in Quebec one of the "Intolerable Acts". As late as the Civil War Gen. Grant's General Order No. 11 targeted Jews.

The point is, I guess, that our ancestors endured all of this and made it.

Of course, they endured it better sometimes than in others.  When they lost the ability to at least get along, things got very bad indeed.  The most notable example, probably, came in 1860 to 1865 when Americans had reached the point where their differences could only be solved violently.

When those things got that way, one notable thing was the fragility of civility, order and even common sense.  In bad times Americans have done well if their leaders had a vision, even if disagreed with, and were clear about it, even if the opposition was distinct in that opposition.  A key to it was an overall sense that we were all in this together in spite of those differences.  The US did well as a society in the Great War, even with lots of failings, as it generally agreed with Wilson that something needed to be done in Europe and we had to do it, and even if we disagreed with that, we were all Americans and weren't going to send just our neighbor off to fight.  We did very well in World War Two uniting behind Franklin  Roosevelt and Harry Truman on the concept that we were a democratic nation, united by that, and we were going to bring those values to a world that had forgotten them, even if some wished the war hadn't ever come.  We did pretty well in the Cold War, with the exception of some real distress in the late 40s and early 50s, and again in the late 60s and early 70s, with the idea that we were freedom's sentinel, even if we didn't always like what that meant.

Right now, we're a mess.

We are not united on anything, and we've politicized everything.  And our polarization is massive.

We've been polarized of course before, but it's been sometime since we were this split, or so it would seem. Some would argue that we're really not, and that most are in the middle.

If we aren't mostly in the middle, the problem then becomes the point at which we arrive at a point at which we not only aren't, but we've reached the state where the polarized sides only see forcing their view at all costs upon the other as the solution.

Advanced nations have had that happen before.  Weimar Germany lived in a state of being that started off that way in 1918 and dissolved due to that in 1932.  It wasn't that there were not right wingers who valued democracy over force, or that there were not left wingers who valued democracy over force, but rather that people quit listening to them and opted for the parties that promised to force their views with dominating finality.

That is, of course, sort of what happened in 1860 to us, when one side decided that it had to have its way so much that it would leave to get it, and kill to maintain it.

Surely we're not there yet. But one thing we are is fatigued.  And that's not a good thing.  A lot of people have just had enough. They're worn down by the Pandemic. They're tired of politicians.  They don't want to hear anymore.  It's not that they're disinterested. 

They're tired.

So perhaps we can look back on those early North American Thanksgivings here a bit.  The crops didn't fail.  The North Koreans didn't attack South Korea. The Chinese didn't invade Taiwan.  The Russians didn't suddenly decide they wanted Poland back.

And yes, a lot of us fell ill, some will never fully recover, and some have died. That will continue on.  But as tragic as that is, we've had their better times and our prior health, and as grim as it is, it serves as a reminder that our path through here is temporary, and if, in the words of the old country song, we "don't have a home in this world anymore", well we never had a perfect one.

Freedom of speech, something which most people have not had except on a local level since at least the point at which society became advanced, but which is an American hallmark.

Related threads:

Thanksgiving Reflections

A Thanksgiving Passing

Lex Anteinternet: Thanksgiving

Thanksgiving

*Thanksgiving isn't really a North American holiday any more than its just an American one, in the larger sense, and this confusing entry here reflects that.  I'm mostly referring to the United States in this entry, and the predecessor English colonies, but not exclusively, as can be seen by text above that's more applicable to other areas.

Presidential age

As a postscript to this item run yesterday;

Lex Anteinternet: The death of Robert Trump, . . .: President Trump's younger brother, at age 71 should serve as a reminder to us that we, as a country, really continue to gamble with the ...

. . . the oldest man ever to take office as President for his initial term is. . . Donald Trump. 

He was 70 years old when he first took office.  Older than any other U.S. President at that time.

But just barely. Ronald Reagan was almost 70 when he took office.  Indeed, he's the only septuagenarian to have been sworn into office for his initial term.

In fact, only one other President has been in his 70s and served at all, that being Ronald Reagan, who spent most of his 70s in the Oval Office.

Presidents achieving the status of being sworn in, for their first terms, in their 60s were:

William Henry Harrison at age 68, who died just a month after taking office.  Had he lived his full term, rather than a month, he was have been the only other President other than Reagan and Trump to be in their 70s and in office.

James Buchanan, at age 65.

George H. W. Bush, at age 64

Zachary Taylor at age 64

Dwight Eisenhower, recently retired from the U.S. Army, at age 62.

Andrew Jackson at age 61.

John Adams at age 61

Gerald Ford at age 61

Henry Truman at age 60.

In contrast, more men in their 40s have taken office, although only barely. They are:

Theodore Roosevelt, age 42.

John F. Kennedy, age 43.

Bill Clinton, age 46.

Ulysses S. Grant, age  46.

Barack Obama, age 47.

Grover Cleveland, age 47.

Franklin Pierce, age 48.

James A. Garfield, age 49

James K. Polk, age 49.

The oldest a President has ever been, and still in office, was Ronald Reagan, who left the office at age 77.  That would mean that Biden, should he win, will be older than the highest age obtained by a sitting President at the time of taking office, should he do so.  And in any event, whomever wins this go around, should he serve an entire term, will surpass Reagan's record.

Is that an admirable thing?  Eamon de Valera was 90 when he left office as the President of Ireland, assuming that role at age 75.  But the President of Ireland is the head of state, and not the country's active leader.  In contrast, Ronald Reagan died at age 93, and some have claimed that he was exhibiting the signs of the Alzheimer's he'd ultimately develop by the time he left office.  Surely a President with that condition would be problematic.

Pandemic, Part Two

 May 24, 2020

When I started a Pandemic thread here I thought I'd just keep running it as things developed.

The "Yellow Jack" quarantine flag flown over vessels in quarantine.  Yellow flags used to sometimes be attached to houses in quarantine as well.

Of course, that was naive as that would assume it wouldn't get so long it would be impossible to really read.  It's reached that point.  Therefore, we now have the Part Two edition of the Pandemic thread, unfortunately.

This actually is, however, a logical place to start it.  The Northern Hemisphere has entered into a new stage of this, although the Southern Hemisphere has only started to deal with the Coronavirus Pandemic in some ways, New Zealand and Australia side.  The first phase was dealing with the spread of the disease from Wuhan China around the globe and what societal reaction to that should be.  Most nations, with some exceptions, opted for shutting things down.  A long quarantine was imposed in the western world and in China which nations are now emerging from.

What that means, of course, we're about to see.

The big questions is how this pandemic ends. We don't know, but there are basically three ways.  One way is that a vaccine is developed soon and we achieve "herd immunity" by vaccination.  The second way is that  vaccine is not developed soon and we achieve "herd immunity" through infection.  The final way it ends is that we don't develop a vaccine at all and we simply acclimate to living with the disease, a theory that has been gaining ground recently in some quarters.

Related to that, the pandemic may in fact end, as a social feature, when people are just sick of quarantines and decide to push forward and acclimate to the risk as they'd rather do that than live forever in a state of quarantine.

Personally, I think we're pretty close to developing a vaccine.  There's real reason to hope that we will have by next fall.  I also think, however that we're at the point at which people would rather accept the deadly risk rather than live in quarantine forever, whether that development is a good or bad one, or we're really close to that point.

More accurately, a growing segment of society is at that point.  There are those sounding the alarm that western nations are emerging from quarantine too soon, and from a medical standpoint they very well may be.  Conversely, an event like this interesting creates all sort of social divides, something that's been frequently commented upon recently, but one that's not been noted is the divide between those who seemingly get paid no matter what and want everyone to keep staying home and those who can't do that indefinitely.

Indeed, it almost seems as if some who have well funded, often public, work don't grasp that a lot of people can't stay home indefinitely and the funds to do that on the government doll don't really exist. Already, the money used for relief is simply printed and the economy is sliding into a depression.

All of which is why it's a good time to start a new thread.

May 28, 2020

Governor Gordon issued a new series of modifications to his existing quarantine orders, with some of the modifications being quite extensive.

Outdoor gatherings up to 250 persons to be permitted under new health orders

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has announced that updated public health orders effective June 1 will ease restrictions on public gatherings, allowing outdoor gatherings of up to 250 people.

The updated orders allow for outdoor events to occur with social distancing and increased sanitization measures in place. Sporting events, rodeos and other events will be permitted to have up to 250 spectators in attendance, in addition to the event participants.  

"It’s time we had the chance to enjoy summer,” Governor Gordon said. “The ability to gather outdoors in larger groups will be good for Wyoming citizens, businesses and our communities as we enter the season. We are not out of the woods yet though, so please use good judgement and don’t jeopardize yourself and others by acting recklessly. We want to keep moving forward.”

Hosts and organizers of these outdoor events are asked to screen staff for symptoms of COVID-19 and ensure adequate personal protective equipment is available. Food and beverage services at outdoor gatherings are required to follow the provision for restaurants outlined in Public Health Order No. 1.

Indoor events and gatherings, other than religious gatherings and other exemptions listed in the order, will continue to be restricted to groups of 25 or fewer. No significant changes are being made to the updated Public Health Orders 1 and 3.

Updated copies of all three Public Health Orders are attached and can be found on the Wyoming's COVID-19 website. 

--END--

• Fifth Continuation and Modification of Statewide Public Health Order #1.pdf

• Fifth Continuation and Modification of Statewide Order #3.pdf

• Fifth Continuation and Modification of Statewide Public Health Order #2.pdf

One of the significant changes, we'd note, is that churches are now allowed to reopen to groups larger than 25 in number, with certain social distancing provisions in place.  Restrictions on Communion were lifted, with guidance.

Governor Gordon also expressed his disappointment on the cancellation of a variety of rodeos around the state.

Governor Gordon expresses disappointment that Wyoming's 6 largest rodeos are cancelled in 2020 

Governor stands with event organizers to support their decision

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Wyoming Governor Mark Gordon and representatives from the state’s largest rodeos announced today that six of Wyoming’s large rodeos and events will not take place in 2020. This decision factored in economics, health concerns and logistics.  

The cancellation decision was made collectively and includes the Thermopolis Cowboy Rendezvous PRCA Rodeo in late June as well the Cody Stampede, Central Wyoming Fair & PRCA Rodeo in Casper, the Sheridan WYO Rodeo and Breakaway Roping, Laramie Jubilee Days, and Cheyenne Frontier Days, all scheduled for July. 

“This hurts. I grew up with rodeo and it is part of Wyoming’s fabric and our culture,” Governor Gordon said. “All the rodeos impacted today are fabulous events. It is with a heavy heart, and only after many long discussions with these fine folks on ways we could make large-venue rodeos work, did we realize that it just wasn’t going to be possible this year.” 

The Governor and his staff met with rodeo committee members from Cody, Sheridan, Thermopolis, Laramie, Casper and Cheyenne over the past several weeks to consider potential social distancing measures, entrance and exit plans, and other possibilities to ensure safely staging rodeos, parades, carnivals and concerts. 

Flanked by representatives of all six rodeos, the Governor said that after several weeks of evaluation, discussions, and considerations of every possible scenario, it was clear that there was no safe or economically viable path forward at this time for these events. 

“The health and safety of our fans, volunteers, contestants and first responders is our primary concern.” the Governor emphasized. “I know what this means for rodeo, for our communities and to Wyoming’s summer. The financial and emotional impacts are immense. But it’s the right thing to do. We are committed to doing all we can to ensure smaller rodeos and events will still be able to occur." 

While these six Western celebrations are not possible in 2020, there is a statewide commitment to returning stronger than ever in 2021. A video message from organizers of all six events can be found here. 

Contact information for each of the rodeos follows below:  

Thermopolis Cowboy Rendezvous

Contact:  T.J. Owsley; thermopolisprca@gmail.com ; 307-921- 0534

www.thermopoliscowboyrendezvous.com

Cody Stampede

Contact:  Mike Darby; michaelsdarby@hotmail.com; 307 250 1259

www.codystampederodeo.com

Central Wyoming Fair & Rodeo

Contact:  Tom Jones; t_jones@centralwyomingfair.com; (307) 258-3886

www.centralwyomingfair.com

Sheridan Wyo Rodeo

Contact:  Billy Craft; bcraft@craftco.com; 307-751-1831

www.sheridanwyorodeo.com

Laramie Jubilee Days

Contact:  Guy Warpness; gwarp59@gmail.com; 307-760-8777

Laramiejubileedays.org                                                                                                  

Cheyenne Frontier Days                               

Contact:  Nicole Gamst; nicole@cfdrodeo.com; 307 778 7210                              

www.cfdrodeo.com

--END--

The lifting of some restrictions combined with the cancellations expresses the interesting dual approach to things that is currently occuring in the state. As the state lifts restrictions every couple of weeks, individual cities and entities are continuing to cancel events. Now nearly every significant rodeo in the state has been cancelled for the season, an event which followed the earlier cancellation of the college rodeo finals.

The cancellation of the rodeo finals resulted in the postponement of the AOPA fly in to 2021.  Also postponed were the performances scheduled for this year's Natrona County Beartrap festival, as it was cancelled.

So while businesses and institutions are allowed to open up, annual events are largely being postponed.

There is of course a resulting economic impact from big events being cancelled.  According to the Tribune, the county will lose $4,000,000 in lost revenues due to the fair and rodeo being cancelled.  But a person has to wonder, as we will in a separate thread, what attendance would have been actually like this year.  With restrictions lifted around the state some large gatherings are occurring nationally, while in other places people have been slow to return.

A nationwide poll that was conducted surprisingly indicates that only 50% of Americans would receive a vaccination, if one is developed. That would mean that with existing infections it'd still be questionable if the United States reached herd immunity.

That's really stunning under the circumstances. During this crisis there's been a fair amount of shaming of people who haven't worn masks or who failed to self isolate.  Whether or not those things are justified or not, a public reaction against those who would not vaccinate, and who therefore are really voting to keep the pandemic going, would be legitimate.

May 29, 2020

Governor Gordon issues statement on cancellation of 6 Wyoming rodeos

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has issued the following statement following yesterday's announcement that six of Wyoming’s large rodeos and events will not take place in 2020: 

"I would like to clarify some misconceptions surrounding yesterday’s announcement that six of Wyoming’s signature rodeo events will not be taking place this summer. As Governor, I support the choice made by these committees and stand with them in the enormously difficult decision that they had to make. Their courage is uncommon, and that in and of itself, is Wyoming. 

Large rodeos are expensive undertakings that rely on attendance, sponsors, local support, and most of all, volunteers. As COVID-19 progressed early this year and many large rodeos closed, sponsorships dried up nationally; live music performances came to a halt; fans wavered, consumer sentiment dipped and volunteers were forced to weigh whether or not they would be able to help. 

Rodeo committees take seriously their responsibility to provide an entertaining, unique, and safe experience to all of their guests and they look to the state and county health officers for advice. The group that I was honored to work with came with tough questions and a long list of unknowns that we all attempted to address. We discussed and considered at length how to manage the main gate, whether they needed to require masks and what attendance might be like. Would a beer garden be feasible? How do you manage crowds when the rodeo is over? How do you run a carnival in the current environment? In the end, the challenges and risks involved with implementing any approach were either too expensive, too complicated or simply not feasible. 

As I stated at yesterday’s press conference, the State did not close these rodeos. I want to be very clear – rodeo as a whole is not “cancelled” in Wyoming. There are no public health orders issued by the state that would “shut down” rodeos or prevent them from taking place. In fact, we are continuing to work diligently to ensure that our Wyoming State Fair, county fairs, local rodeos and other smaller events can take place this summer. This decision was difficult for all of us, and I know how important these events are to our communities, our businesses and our citizens. We stand ready to work with any rodeo committee to ensure a safe and enjoyable experience. I look forward to a full rodeo season in 2021."

On the same day the Economist, the famous London based news journal, sent out an advertisement for its magazine that summarized this weeks issues as follows:

We have two covers this week. In most of our editions, as America records 100,000 deaths from covid-19, we ask how it has coped. Many Americans think their president has handled the epidemic disastrously, that their country has been hit uniquely hard and that there is a simple causal relationship between the two. This is not supported by the numbers. Or, at least, not yet. The official death rate in America is about the same as in the European Union. Overall, America has fared a bit worse than Switzerland and a bit better than the Netherlands, neither of which is a failed state. That is because America’s handling of the virus reflects its strengths, as well as its weaknesses—and in particular its devolved system of government. In our Asia edition we look at how China’s decision to impose a security law on Hong Kong threatens a broader reckoning with the world—and not just over Hong Kong’s future as a global financial centre, but also over the South China Sea and Taiwan. The new law, written in Beijing, will create still-to-be-defined crimes of subversion and secession, terms used elsewhere in China to lock up dissidents, including Uighurs and Tibetans. Hong Kong will have no say in drafting the law, which will let China station its secret police there. The message is clear. Rule by fear is about to begin.

What the Economist takes note of (well both of the the things it takes note of) are important.

It's not just Americans that believe that the pandemic is being badly handled by the President or as a whole, the whole world does.  The US is getting slammed in the press for its poor handling of the pandemic.  And yet, as the Economist, no friend to Trump, points out, the US is doing about the same as the rest of the Western world.

And as it also noted, the US has a Federal system.  Save for things that are really reserved for the Federal government, like war, emergencies are handled locally and always have been.  Indeed, it wasn't until the Cold War that the opposite started to be true and it really wasn't until Hurricane Katrina that there was any concept that the Federal government really had an overarching role in addressing emergencies outside of a very narrow range.

Health crises have never been a Federal deal, save for the developments noted above.  The Federal government didn't try to intervene state by state during the Spanish Flu Pandemic and it wasn't until the Great Depression that the Federal Government took much of a role in the health of Americans at all.  Arguably the Federal Governments efforts in that quarter, while a big success in terms of combating smoking, have been mixed otherwise.

Anyhow, as we proceed along, we're getting to the point where there's now a fair amount of country by country data, all of which basically turns up the same thing.  By and large, no matter what their approach, the infection rates and death rates in free societies have been about the same.  Exceptions are New Zealand, an island nation which managed to pretty much shut the pandemic down early, and Italy, which has a really elderly tightly packed population and did poorly.   Otherwise, a country's approach seems to impact things only marginally, if at all.  Sweden, for example, is claimed to have a higher death rate than some other EU nations, but its infection rate is just about the same as the rest of them, which makes the higher death rate questionable as to cause.

June 8, 2020

New Zealand announced that in the view of its government, the pandemic is over there.

Meanwhile, it's clearly raging in Brazil which is the new hotspot for the outbreak.

June 11, 2020

The state issued a new set of orders regarding quarantines further loosening them.

Indoor gathering limits increased, parades permitted under updated health orders

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Updated public health orders that take effect June 15 will continue to ease restrictions on public gatherings in Wyoming, Governor Mark Gordon announced today. The updated orders allow indoor gatherings of up to 250 people with restrictions, permit parades to occur (with appropriate social distancing), and allow K-12 schools, community colleges, the University, and other educational institutions to reopen facilities and resume in-person instruction for all students.

The new orders are in effect through June 30 and allow gatherings up to 50 persons in a confined space to occur without restrictions, and permit indoor events of up to 250 persons with social distancing and increased sanitization measures in place. Faith-based gatherings such as church services and funeral homes are exempted from the new orders and allowed to operate without restrictions, with appropriate social distancing encouraged.  

“Wyoming has made outstanding progress to date,” Governor Gordon said. “Folks need to remember that it is important to remain vigilant, but because we have been so successful, I am confident we can continue lifting the very few remaining public health restrictions.”

Wyoming’s COVID-19 dashboard has been updated to reflect the improvement in the statewide metrics used to ease restrictions. The number of new cases has changed from “concerning” to “stabilizing” and the percent of all tests that are positive is now rated as “improving”.  

Updates to Public Health Order No. 1 allow childcare facilities to resume normal operations without restrictions on class sizes, and expands the permitted size of group fitness classes to 50 participants. Public Health Order No. 3 no longer requires personal care services to operate by appointment only. 

K-12 schools, colleges, the University, and trade schools may resume in-person instruction for all students in groups of up to 50 persons with spacing guidelines. Governor Gordon has continued to urge educational institutions to prepare fully developed reopening plans for the fall that incorporate public safety precautions and ensure smooth transitions to remote learning should new outbreaks occur. 

As of June 10, Wyoming has recorded 768 lab-confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, 212 probable cases and 18 deaths. 

The COVID-19 dashboard and updated Public Health Orders are attached and can be found on Wyoming’s COVID-19 website.

--END--

• Sixth Continuation and Modification of Statewide Public Health Order #3.pdf

• Sixth Continuation and Modification of Statewide Public Health Order #1.pdf

• Sixth Continuation and Modification of Statewide Public Health Order #2.pdf

• COVID19_Metric_Dashboard_06092020.png

On the same day the State announced an additional death from the disease, bringing the total to 18.  The victim of COVID 19 was a resident of the Wind River Indian Reservation where half of the state's deaths have occured.

Dr. Anthony Fausti also warned the nation in a speech that he regarded the pandemic as being "far from over" and that a vaccine is needed.

The University of Wyoming approved its plan to reopen in the fall, which has a host of restrictions concerning common activities on campus.

June 17, 2020

The City of Casper announced that it was reopening its Coronavirus closed recycle bins and three of its swimming pools.

Sturgis, South Dakota, announced that it was going ahead with its annual motorcycle rally, the largest traditional motorcycle rally in the United States, or the world for that matter.  This year is its 80th anniversary.

In Cheyenne, the Governor gave a press conference and warned of ignoring the existence of the virus, noting that recent infections seemed tied to the same.

June 18, 2020

An outbreak in Uinta Count of 78 new cases has been traced back to a single bar in the county in which social distancing, etc., has not been observed.

In Florida sixteen new cases have all been tied to a single night's outing of a group of friends.

June 19, 2020

American Airlines banned passengers who refused to wear masks, and were accordingly removed from flights, from being future passengers.

A study suggested that blood type may play a role in how severe the disease is for those who acquire it.

They Wyoming State Fair announced that it was going ahead this year in spite of the closing of numerous rodeos around the state.

June 23, 2020

Saudi Arabia barred foreign pilgrims from this year's hajj due to the pandemic.  The move is extraordinary given that the trip to Mecca is a major aspiration in many Muslim lives.

South Carolina protesters cancelled protests in that state due to the virus.  The Governor of the state and his family also announced that they are infected with the disease.

Two of President Trump's campaign staffers came down with the disease following rallies in Oklahoma.

Wyoming repeated its single highest day total for new infections yesterday. All in all June is proving to be the month with the highest infection rate.

June 24, 2020

Charlie Blackmon, Phillip Diehl and Ryan Castellani of the Colorado Rockies have tested positive for SARS-CoV-2.

Wyoming's state workers have started to return to their offices this week.

June has so far been the month with the highest infection rates for Wyoming.

June 25, 2020

The state surpassed 1,000 confirmed SARS-CoV-2 cases of infection.

FWIW, while the actual number of infections that have occurred is no doubt considerably higher than that, this figure is far below 1% of the state's population, meaning that "herd immunity" is nowhere on the horizon through infection.

Nationwide, June 24, 2020, saw the highest infection rate for the nation as a whole, i.e., the largest number if spread across the entire country, in a single day.

June 26, 2020

Wyoming hit its highest single day infections of COVID-19 yesterday, June 25.

The Center for Disease Control reported that it suspects that the number of Americans who have had the disease is ten times higher than reported, which would make the actual number approximately 20,000,000. While that's a huge number, in order to achieve heard immunity the numbers would have to be around 180,000,000.

June 30, 2020

The Center for Disease Control has stated that the Coronavirus is spreading too rapidly for the United States to bring it under control and there will be no relief until there's a vaccine.

Dr. Anthony Fausti stated yesterday that even with a vaccine herd immunity will not be achieved unless everyone receives it.

The state's most recent guidelines continued the last restrictions without changes.

July 1, 2020

Dr. Anthony Fauci warned yesterday that the US could reach 100,000 infections per day, given current trends.

Infections at that rate would be catastrophic and overwhelm the health system's ability to handle them. FWIW, however, it still wouldn't amount to instant "herd immunity" instantly as that would translate into 60,000,000 infections per year, approximately (adding in a few in addition, which would be likely).  In order to achieve herd immunity the US has to reach at least 180,000,000. Immunity would take three years, therefore, in that scenario, with grim prospects being a feature of achieving that number.

New York is restricting admittance from state's with high infection rates.

Colorado has closed its bars for a second time (will weed shops be closed this time. . . nah. . . ).

Texas reported a record number, 6,900, infections yesterday and extended a ban on elective surgeries.

Cody's rodeo starts this weekend in spite of a dramatic increase in infections in Park County.

There are reports that China has identified a Swine Flu variant that has the potential to breakout in a pandemic.  For those with a grim interest in pandemics, the possibility of a 1918/19 type flu and a SARS pandemic was discussed some years ago by Ira Flatow and two epidemiologist on NPR's Science Friday.  The epidemiologist regarded such an event as an inevitability.

Indeed, it's worth noting that while we believe that this will be the last pandemic in human history (assuming that the flu doesn't breakout during this pandemic), the event we're currently enduring was in fact an inevitability.  That the human population was ill prepared for it, everywhere, says something about our poor planning in general.

July 9, 2020

Tokyo infections hit a daily high today of 224 new cases, 80% of which were people in their 20s and 30s.

This is a significant news item for several reasons, the first of which is that the oft repeated suggestion that this pandemic is limited to the United States, or maybe the US and Brazil, is flat out wrong.  A week ago or so the daily death rate in Germany surpassed that of the United States, for example, even though the German population is much smaller than the US population.  And now we see that there's a spike in Japan.

That's also significant in that Japan is basically germophobic to start with, with many people wearing masks routinely in public because they do, or perhaps more charitably because its a densely populated country where constant exposure to everything is the norm.  In spite of that, infections are climbing in Japan.

Greece, for its part, is getting to reimpose travel and other restrictions.

The Australian state of Victoria imposed restrictions.

Indian experienced 25,000 new infections yesterday, a record for that country so far.

In Scotland, support for Scottish independence is at a record level due to Scottish discontent with London's handling of the pandemic.

July 12, 2020

Wyoming's infection rate reached a new high yesterday, July 11, 2020.

Florida's infection rate dramatically climbed over the last few days.

Flag of the Okinawa Prefecture.

The United States Marine Corps has reported the disease is now present on its base in Okinawa.

France, which is the country with the third highest death toll from Coronavirus, finds its infection rate is once again climbing.

July 13, 1920

The government in Indian Punjab has banned public gatherings and limited the number of people who can be present at a wedding to 30.

Houston's mayor and the Harris County Judge have asked for the Governor of Texas to impose a stay at home order on Harris County.

July 14, 1920

The state continued its existing pandemic orders:

Current Public Health Orders Extended through July 31

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –  Wyoming’s current public health orders will be extended through July 31 as the state continues to see increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases, Governor Mark Gordon announced today. 

Over the past 14 days, Wyoming has averaged 27 lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19 per day, with 342 new cases confirmed since July 1. From June 15-30, there were 328 lab-confirmed cases reported. On July 13, the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations reported by Wyoming hospitals was 17, the most hospitalizations reported since April 22. While the total numbers of tests completed has continued to grow in Wyoming, the percentage of tests that come back positive for COVID-19 has remained steady with a cumulative total average of 2.9%. 

“I’m disappointed again that we continue to see case numbers rise,” Governor Gordon said. “Wyoming residents only need to look at what Texas, Florida and Arizona are experiencing to see how much damage being careless, not wearing a mask, and failing to social distance can cause to our state’s economy, our citizens' health and our healthcare system. I am encouraged to see many of our businesses taking this responsibility seriously and both requiring staff and urging customers to wear face coverings.” 

The Wyoming Department of Health and the Governor continue to strongly recommend the use of face coverings in public settings where it is not possible or reasonable to stay physically apart. On Wyoming’s COVID-19 dashboard the number of new cases continues to be rated, “Concerning.” 

The continuing orders that take effect July 16 allow gatherings up to 50 persons in a confined space to occur without restrictions and permit events of up to 250 persons with social distancing and increased sanitization measures in place. Faith-based gatherings such as church services and funeral homes will continue to be permitted to operate without restrictions, with appropriate social distancing encouraged. The section of Order No. 1 addressing restaurant operations has been simplified, with the removal of some specific provisions to provide business owners additional flexibility and maintain an emphasis on spacing and face coverings. The public health restrictions that apply to bars, gyms and performance spaces will remain in place.

As of July 13, Wyoming has recorded 1,545 lab-confirmed positive cases of COVID-19, 359 probable cases and 21 deaths. Of these, there were 39 new lab-confirmed cases and 3 new probable cases announced today.

The updated public health orders are attached and can be found on Wyoming's COVID-19 website.

California reimposed some business closures.


July 15, 2020

Casper College announced it was pushing its fall sports back to the spring.

Contrary to expectation, consumption of alcohol in the United States has declined during the pandemic, reflecting a decline in consumption in taverns and restaurants.

July 16, 2020

Governor Gordon delivered an emotional address for people to wear masks yesterday.  Also included in the delivery was a veiled suggestion that if things get worse, the state will star to reimpose restrictions.

Local expressions of national stores have imposed orders now requiring masks.

Community colleges have pushed all of their fall sports to the spring.

A vaccine looks promising after initial tests and plans are now being made for its production.

France has mandated the wearing of masks in public.

July 21, 2020

Wyoming reported a new record number of new cases yesterday.

A vaccine developed by a British company reported good results in a test.

July 23, 2020

President Trump is now wearing a mask and declared yesterday that the pandemic will get worse before it gets better.

Sen. Rand Paul stated that Mayor Cuomo of New York should be impeached over his handling of the pandemic in New York State.

Ten individuals, both prisoners and employees, tested positive for COVID 19 at the Wyoming State Penitentiary.

Protests in Israel made their discontent with proposals to grant the government sweeping powers to combat the virus known.

July 25, 2020

A letter written and organized by a collection of consumer groups was signed by over 150 medical professionals this past week urging a second nationwide shut down.  The letter read:

Dear decision makers,

Hit the reset button.

Of all the nations in the world, we’ve had the most deaths from COVID-19. At the same time, we’re in the midst of “reopening our economy,” exposing more and more people to coronavirus and watching numbers of cases -- and deaths -- skyrocket.

In March, people went home and stayed there for weeks, to keep themselves and their neighbors safe. You didn’t use the time to set us up to defeat the virus. And then you started to reopen anyway, and too quickly.

Right now we are on a path to lose more than 200,000 American lives by November 1st. Yet, in many states people can drink in bars, get a haircut, eat inside a restaurant, get a tattoo, get a massage, and do myriad other normal, pleasant, but non-essential activities.

Get our priorities straight.

More than 117,000 Americans had died of COVID-19 by mid-June. If our response had been as effective as Germany’s, estimates show that we would have had only 36,000 COVID-19 deaths in that period in the United States. If our response had been as effective as South Korea, Australia, or Singapore’s, fewer than 2,000 Americans would have died. We could have prevented 99% of those COVID-19 deaths. But we didn’t.

The best thing for the nation is not to reopen as quickly as possible, it’s to save as many lives as possible. And reopening before suppressing the virus isn’t going to help the economy. Economists have gone on record saying that the only way to “restore the economy is to address the pandemic itself,” pointing out that until we find a way to boost testing and develop and distribute a vaccine, open or not, people will not be in the mood to participate.

Listen to the experts.

Public health professionals have made clear that even after we’ve contained the virus by staying at home, in order to reopen American cities and towns safely, we will need:

-- Enough daily testing capacity to test everyone with flu-like symptoms plus anyone they have been in close contact with over the last 2 weeks (at least 10 additional tests per symptomatic person). We currently have only 35% of the testing capacity we need to meet that threshold. The more people get sick, the more testing is required.

-- A workforce of contact tracers large enough to trace all current cases. That’s 210,000 more contact tracers than we had in April, but the number keeps going up as infections rise. Most states are far short of the number of contact tracers they need.

In addition, we need more personal protective equipment (PPE) to keep essential workers like health professionals, emergency responders, and grocery store clerks safe.

Shut it down now, and start over.

Non-essential businesses should be closed. Restaurant service should be limited to take-out. People should stay home, going out only to get food and medicine or to exercise and get fresh air. Masks should be mandatory in all situations, indoors and outdoors, where we interact with others.

We need that protocol in place until case numbers recede to a level at which we have the capacity to effectively test and trace. Then, and only then, we can try a little more opening, one small step at a time.

You should bar non-essential interstate travel. When people travel freely between states, the good numbers in one state can go bad quickly.

If you don’t take these actions, the consequences will be measured in widespread suffering and death.

We need you to lead.

Tell the American people the truth about the virus, even when it’s hard. Take bold action to save lives -- even when it means shutting down again.

Unleash the resources needed to contain the virus: massively ramping up testing, building the necessary infrastructure for effective contact tracing, and providing a safety net for those who need it.

Many of the actions of our government thus far have fallen short of what the moment demands. Mr. Trump, federal administration, honorable governors: we remind you that history has its eyes on you.

Sincerely,

Matthew Wellington
Public Health Campaigns Director, U.S. PIRG

Ezekiel J. Emanuel, M.D., Ph.D.
Vice Provost of Global Initiatives
Chair, Department of Medical Ethics and Health Policy
Levy University Professor
Co-Director, Healthcare Transformation Institute
Perelman School of Medicine and The Wharton School
University of Pennsylvania

Krutika Kuppalli, MD
Infectious Diseases Physician and Emerging Leader in Biosecurity Fellow at Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security

William Hanage, PhD
Harvard T. H. Chan School of Public Health

Saskia Popescu, PhD, MPH, MA, CIC
University of Arizona

David Sherman, PhD
University of Washington

Richard H. Ebright, Ph.D.
Rutgers University

Angela Rasmussen, PhD
Columbia Mailman School of Public Health

Seth Trueger, MD, MPH
Northwestern University

Megan Ranney, MD, MPH
Brown University & GetUsPPE

Sanjat Kanjilal MD, MPH
Harvard Medical School, Brigham & Women's Hospital

Joan Casey, PhD
Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health

Karen Thickman, PhD
University of Washington, Department of Microbiology

Valerie Bengal, MD, FAAFP former UCSF Associate Clinical Professor
UC Santa Cruz and Capacitar International

Reshma Ramachandran, MD, MPP
National Clinician Scholars Program, Yale School of Medicine

Howard Forman, MD, MBA
Yale University

Ryan Marino, MD
Case Western Reserve University

Eric Goralnick, MD, MS
Brigham and Women’s Hospital/Harvard Medical School

Wade Berrettini, MD, PhD
University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine

Janet Perlman, MD, MPH
UCSF

David Rosen, MD, PhD
Washington University School of Medicine

Drew Schwartz, MD, PhD
Washington University School of Medicine

Krysia Lindan, MD, MS
University of California, San Francisco

Yaneer Bar-Yam, PhD
New England Complex Systems Institute

Margaret Handley, PhD, MPH
University of California San Francisco, Department of Epidemiology and Medicine

Thomas Lietman, MD
UCSF

Travis Porco, PhD, MPH
University of California, San Francisco

Veronica Miller, PhD
UC Berkeley School of Public Health

Kenneth Rosenberg, MD, MPH
PHSU-PSU School of Public Health

Jason Newland, MD
Washington University

Elizabeth Jacobs, PhD
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of Arizona

Fern P. Nelson, M.D.
Veterans Administration Hospital

James Gaudino, MD, MS, MPH, FACPM
OHSU-PSU School of Public Health & Gaudino Consulting

Bruce Agins, MD, MPH
UCSF

Bonnica Zuckerman, MPH
UVM

Paul Song, MD
PNHP

Katherine Villers, MUA
Community Catalyst

Bethany Letiecq, PhD
George Mason University

Vineet Arora, MD, MAPP
University of Chicago and IMPACT4HC

Pete DeBalli, MD
UCF School of Medicine

Carrie Beckman, PharmD
UC Health

Krys Johnson, PhD, MPH
Temple University

Aalim Weljie, Ph.D. University of Pennsylvania

Michael Kelly, PhD, MSW
Loyola University Chicago School of Social Work

Kevin Foskett, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

John Hansen-Flaschen, MD
University of Pennsylvania

Garret FitzGerald, MD
University of Pennsylvania

Amy Humrichouser, MD
University of Michigan

Aurora Horstkamp, MD
Washington State University

Timothy Ellender, MD
Indiana University

Christine Brewer, MSW, MSN, RN
Villanova University

Pamela Norton, PhD
Drexel University College of Medicine

Diane McKay, Psy.D.
LECOM

Kay Mattson, MSW, MPH
Independent international Public Health Consultant

Dominique Ruggieri, PhD
School of Medicine and Center for Public Health Initiatives, University of Pennsylvania

Eve Bloomgarden, MD
Northwestern University and IMPACT4HC

Nicole Theodoropoulos, MD
UMass Memorial Medical Center

Catherine Marsh, B.A.
EndCoronavirus.org

Patricia Harper, MA
San Bernardino Balley College

Jamie Burke
Colorado State University

Jessica Garfield-Blake, MEd
Knox Trail Middle School Teacher

Jerry Soucy, RN, CHPN
Death Nurse, LLC

Jonathan Moreno, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

Lana Fishkin, MD
Thomas Jefferson University

Jack Colford, MD, MPH, PhD
UC Berkeley

Rohini Haar, MD, MPH
UC Berkeley School of Public Health

Maimuna Majumder, PhD, MPH
Boston Children's Hospital & Harvard Medical School

Sangeeta Ahluwalia, PhD
RAND Corporation/UCLA

Laura Whiteley, MD
Brown University

Patience Afulani, PhD
UCSF

Vernon Chinchilli, PhD
Penn State College of Medicine

Pamina Gorbach, DrPH
Fielding School of Public Health, UCLA

Judith Hahn, PhD
University of California, San Francisco

Benjamin Lerman, MD
Alta Bates Summit Medical Center

William Davidson, M.D.
PNHP

E John Wherry, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

Mary Sullivan, RN, DNP
University of Massachusetts Medical School

Mark Cullen, MD
Stanford University

Nathan Wong, PhD
University of California, Irvine

Resa M. Jones, PhD, MPH
Temple University

Brandie Taylor, PhD
Temple University

Ondine von Ehrenstein, PhD, MPH
Fielding School of Public Health, UCLA

James Fletcher, MD, FACEP
Brody School of Medicine at East Carolina University

Meenakshi Bewtra, MD, MPH, PhD
University of Pennsylvania

David Albright, MD
UPMC

Michael Gough, MD
Catholic Health System of Buffalo and University at Buffalo Jacobs School of Medicine

Dianne Friedman, Ph.D.
Retired university professor

Karen Walter
University of Washington

Robin Taylor Wilson, PhD
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, College of Public Health, Temple University

Janice Nash, RN, MSN, DNP
Carlow University College of Health and Wellness

Marsha Ellias-Frankel, MSW
American Association of Marriage & Family Therapists

Mae Sakharov, Ed D
Bucks County Community College

Mae Sakharov, MA, MED, EdD
Bucks County Community College

Brenna Riethmiller, MLIS
EndCoronavirus.org

Shakuntala Choudhury, PhD<
Statistical Research & Consulting LLC

Simin Li
NIST, EndCoronavirus.org, University of Maryland

Jeremy Rossman, PhD
Research-Aid Networks

Judith B Clinco, RN
Catalina In Home Services

Kari-Ann Hunter Thompson, PhD Student
Walden University

Aaron Green, PhD
Iridium Consulting

Kate Sugarman, MD
Unity Health Care

Joaquín Beltrán BA
Speak Up America, EndCoronavirus.org

Susan Safford, Ph.D.
Lincoln University of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania

Graciela Jaschek, PhD, MPH
Temple University

Betelihem Tobo, PhD
Temple University

Michelle Davis, Phd
MSD Consulting

Maggie Baker, Ph.D.
Baker & Baker Associates

David Tuller, DrPH
School of Public Health, UC Berkeley

Ernest Wang, MD, FACEP
NorthShore University Health System

Ramzi Nahhas, PhD
Wright State University

Rhoda Pappert, MBA, MHA, FACHE, RN
Retired, University of Pittsburgh Medical Center

Christine Severance, D.O.
Doc Moms

Neil Sehgal, Ph.D, M.P.H.
University of Maryland School of Public Health

Antonio Gutierrez, CPL
United States Marine Corps

Mary McWilliams, MA
College Community Schools, Retired

Kristine Siefert, PhD, MPH
The University of Michigan

Deborah Cohan, MD, MPH
Professor, University of California San Francisco

Sherry Bassi, EdD, PHCNS,BC
University of CT , Western NMU (retired )

Anna Valdez, Ph.D., RN
Sonoma State University

Elizabeth Chamberlain, PhD
University of Colorado Anschutz SOM

Cameron Mura, PhD
University of Virginia

Elizabeth (Libby) Schaefer, MD, MPH
Harvard Medical School/Kaiser Permanente

Joyce Millen, PhD, MPH
Willamette University

Dina Ghosh, MD
Montefiore Medical Center

Jacob Newcomb, MD
VEP Healthcare

Sarah Friedland, LPC, LCMHC, ACS, DRCC
Volunteers of America

Neil Korman, MD, PhD
University Hospitals Cleveland Medical Center

Maura McLaughlin, MD
Blue Ridge Family Practice

Lynn Ringenberg, MD
Physicians for Social Responsibility/Florida

Krisztian Magori, PhD
Eastern Washington University

Timothy McLaughlin, MD
Blue Ridge Family Practice

Brian Thorndyke, PhD
Indiana University School of Medicine

Vee Martinez, Medical Assistant
Uci

Denise Somsak, MD
Pediatrician

Jeannine Tennyson, BSN, RN
School Nurse

Mark Peifer, PhD
UNC-Chapel Hill, Department of Biology

Marvin Brooke MD, MS
University of Washington

Michael Halasy, DHSc, MS, PA-C
Mayo Clinic

Kendal Maxwell, PhD
Cedars-Sinai Medical Center

Richard Reeves, MD, FACP
RAR Consulting LLC (Clinical Pharmacologist)

Brenden La Faive, EMT
WI Licensed EMT EMS

Gina Tartarelli, OT
Baystate

John Holmes, PhD
University Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine

Ramnath Subbaraman MD, MSc
Tufts University School of Medicine

Vi Tran, MSW
Kaiser Permanente Washington Health Research Institute

Anne Rimoin, PhD, MPH
UCLA Fielding School of Public Health

Marcella Smithson, M.S., MPH, LMFT
CAMFT

Steven Pergam, MD, MPH

Linda Girgis, MD

Dipesh Patel MPH

Mariposa Mccall, MD

Timothy Sankary, MD, MPH

Anthony Orvedahl, MD, PhD

Stanley Weiss, MD, FACP, FACE, FRCP Edin.

Cathie Currie, PhD

Pamela Koehler, JD, MPH

Daisy Sherry, PhD, ACNP-BC

Joyce Garrison, PhD

Susan Walker, MS

Jeffrey Cohn, MD, MHCM

Jared Rubenstein, MD

Marian Betz, MD, MPH

Ann Batista, MD

Morgan Eutermoser, MD

Marc Futernick, MD

Farheen Qurashi, MD, FACS

Megan Whitman, MD

Iris Riggs, PhD

Catherine Cowley-Cooper, RN

Michael Core, MD

Jason Ayres, MD

Craig Norquist, MD

Vasilis Pozios, MD

Michael Becker, DO, MS

Alan Peterson, MD

Kay Vandenberg, MD, FACOG

Melissa Freeman, MD

Robin Aronow, MA

Syra Madad, DHSc, MSc, MCP

Reid Masters, MD

Keelin Garvey, MD

Laurence Carroll, MD

Constance Regan, Ed.D

Cynthia Baum-Baicker, Ph.D.

Ilene Tannenbaum, NP

Virginia Soules, MD

Jean Goodloe, DO

Lindsay Martin, PhD

Teresa Brandt, MD

Annamaria Murray, RN

Judith F. Rand, PhD

Victor Ilegbodu, MD, PhD, MPH

Rebecca Benson, MHA, PBT(ASCP)MLT CM, CHCO, QMBHC

Stanley Weiss, MD, FACP, FACE, FRCP Edin.

Carol Leslie, Chief Program Officer

Briggs Clinco, In-Home Care Client Coordinator

Baruch Blum, BS

Theo Allen, BS

Eunice Wong, BFA, E-RYT, CPT

Michael Hertz, MD, MPH

Patrick Keschl, LPN, NHA

Michael Hertz, MD, MPH

Constance Walker, MD, MA, MPH

Shauna Laughna, PhD

Jeremy Ogusky, MPH

Amparo Adkins, MSN, RN

Kate Shinberg, RN

Sally Rosenfeld, MD

Andrew Frank, MD

Lynn Santillo, RN

Regina Goetz, PharmD, PhD

Martha Christie, MA, Pharm.D

James Perez, MS

Martha Christie MA, Pharm.D

Lise Spiegel, PhD

David Hanson, MD

Jennifer Castro, M. Ed

Oleh Hnatiuk, MD, FACP, FCCP

Elizabeth Holder, JD

Maryanne Llave, RN

Jason Deutsch, MD

Monica Modi, MD

Eric Mueller, MD

Xuan Le, M.D

Tanya Wiseman, BSN,RN

Raul Easton-Carr, M.D.,M.P.H.

Brandon Crossley, CNA

Michelle Crossley, RN

Jacob Malone, RN

Kanika Blunt, RN

Luiza Davila, Healthcare specialist

Barbara McCoy, Teacher

G. J. Ledoux, PhD

Jane Corrarino, DNP, RN, C

Theresa DeLuca, RN

Allison Williams-Wroblewski, Pharm.D.

Macklin Guzman, DHSc, MPH

William David Wick, PhD

Joanna Harran, AGACNP-BC, MSN, APRN, RN

Michael Manning, BS, LMT (3rd year med student)

Karen Smith, DNP, FNP-BC

Monty Bradford, RN

Dominique Motta, RN, BSN, CPN

Russell Etheridge, BSN, RN, CNML

Ariana Ornelas, RN

Sherry Wells, AEMT

_________________________________________________________________________________

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