Showing posts with label 2019. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2019. Show all posts

Saturday, February 8, 2020

The Impeachment of Donald Trump

Yesterday evening, December 18, 2019, the House of Representatives voted to impeach Donald Trump.

The Impeachment Trial of Andrew Johnson.

The Articles of Impeachment read:
Impeaching Donald John Trump, President of the United States, for high crimes and misdemeanors.










Resolved, That Donald J. Trump, President of the United States, is impeached for high crimes and misdemeanors and that the following articles of impeachment be exhibited to the United States Senate:
Articles of impeachment exhibited by the House of Representatives of the United States of America in the name of itself and of the people of the United States of America, against Donald J. Trump, President of the United States of America, in maintenance and support of its impeachment against him for high crimes and misdemeanors.

Article I: Abuse of power

The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives "shall have the sole Power of Impeachment and that the President shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors". In his conduct of the office of President of the United States—and in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed—Donald J. Trump has abused the powers of the Presidency, in that:

Using the powers of his high office, President Trump solicited the interference of a foreign government, Ukraine, in the 2020 United States Presidential election. He did so through a scheme or course of conduct that included soliciting the Government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations that would benefit his reelection, harm the election prospects of a political opponent, and influence the 2020 United States Presidential election to his advantage. President Trump also sought to pressure the Government of Ukraine to take these steps by conditioning official United States Government acts of significant value to Ukraine on its public announcement of the investigations. President Trump engaged in this scheme or course of conduct for corrupt purposes in pursuit of personal political benefit. In so doing, President Trump used the powers of the Presidency in a manner that compromised the national security of the United States and undermined the integrity of the United States democratic process. He thus ignored and injured the interests of the Nation.
President Trump engaged in this scheme or course of conduct through the following means:
(1) President Trump—acting both directly and through his agents Within and Outside the United States Government—corruptly solicited the Government of Ukraine to publicly announce investigations into—
(A) a political opponent, former Vice President Joseph R. Biden, Jr.; and
(B) a discredited theory promoted by Russia alleging that Ukraine—rather than Russia—interfered in the 2016 United States Presidential election.
(2) With the same corrupt motives, President Trump—acting both directly and through his agents within and outside the United States Government–conditioned two official acts on the public announcements that he had requested—
(A) the release of $391 million of United 5 States taxpayer funds that Congress had appropriated on a bipartisan basis for the purpose of providing vital military and security assistance to Ukraine to oppose Russian aggression and which President Trump had ordered suspended; and
(B) a head of state meeting at the White House, which the President of Ukraine sought to demonstrate continued United States support for the Government of Ukraine in the face of Russian aggression.
(3) Faced with the public revelation of his actions, President Trump ultimately released the military and security assistance to the Government of Ukraine, but has persisted in openly and corruptly urging and soliciting Ukraine to undertake investigations for his personal political benefit.
These actions were consistent with President Trump's previous invitations of foreign interference in United States elections.
In all this, President Trump abused the powers of the Presidency by ignoring and injuring national security and other vital national interests to obtain an improper personal political benefit. He has also betrayed the Nation by abusing his high office to enlist a foreign power in corrupting democratic elections.
Wherefore President Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to national security and the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self- governance and the rule of law. President Trump thus warrants impeachment and trial, removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any Office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.

Article II: Obstruction of Congress

The Constitution provides that the House of Representatives "shall have the sole Power of Impeachment" and that the President "shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors". In his conduct of the office of President of the United States—and in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed—
Donald J. Trump has directed the unprecedented, categorical, and indiscriminate defiance of subpoenas issued by the House of Representatives pursuant to its sole Power of Impeachment. President Trump has abused the powers of the Presidency in a manner offensive to, and subversive of, the Constitution, in that:
The House of Representatives has engaged in an impeachment inquiry focused on President Trump's corrupt solicitation of the Government of Ukraine to interfere in the 2020 United States Presidential election. As part of this impeachment inquiry, the Committees undertaking the investigation served subpoenas seeking documents and testimony deemed vital to the inquiry from various Executive Branch agencies and offices, and current and former officials.
In response, without lawful cause or excuse, President Trump directed Executive Branch agencies, offices, and officials not to comply with those subpoenas. President Trump thus interposed the powers of the Presidency against the lawful subpoenas of the House of Representatives, and assumed to himself functions and judgments necessary to the exercise of the "sole Power of Impeachment" vested by the Constitution in the House of Representatives.
President Trump abused the powers of his high office through the following means:
(1) Directing the White House to defy a lawful subpoena by withholding the production of documents sought therein by the Committees.
(2) Directing other Executive Branch agencies and offices to defy lawful subpoenas and withhold the production of documents and records from the Committees—in response to which the Department of State, Office of Management and Budget, Department of Energy, and Department of Defense refused to produce a single document or record.
(3) Directing current and former Executive Branch officials not to cooperate with the Committees—in response to which nine Administration officials defied subpoenas for testimony, namely John Michael "Mick" Mulvaney, Robert B. Blair, John A. Eisenberg, Michael Ellis, Preston Wells Griffith, Russell T. Vought, Michael Duffey, Brian McCormack, and T. Ulrich Brechbuhl.
These actions were consistent with President Trump's previous efforts to undermine United States Government investigations into foreign interference in United States elections.
Through these actions, President Trump sought to arrogate to himself the right to determine the propriety, scope, and nature of an impeachment inquiry into his own conduct, as well as the unilateral prerogative to deny any and all information to the House of Representatives in the exercise of its "sole Power of Impeachment". In the history of the Republic, no President has ever ordered the complete defiance of an impeachment inquiry or sought to obstruct and impede so comprehensively the ability of the House of Representatives to investigate "high Crimes and Misdemeanors". This abuse of office served to cover up the President's own repeated misconduct and to seize and control the power of impeachment and thus to nullify a vital constitutional safeguard vested solely in the House of Representatives.
In all of this, President Trump has acted in a manner contrary to his trust as President and subversive of constitutional government, to the great prejudice of the cause of law and justice, and to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.
Wherefore, President Trump, by such conduct, has demonstrated that he will remain a threat to the Constitution if allowed to remain in office, and has acted in a manner grossly incompatible with self-governance and the rule of law. President Trump thus warrants impeachment and trial, removal from office, and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States.
 So what happens now?

So, now that this has occurred, and to use the correct vernacular, Donald Trump is "impeached".  He remains in office, of course.  Now what occurs is that the Articles of Impeachment will be submitted to the Senate for an impeachment trial.

That will occur. . . probably.

Okay, now what really occurs.

At this point the commentary starts.  So if you only wanted the news, stop reading here.

a.  First a little history and comment

There are a lot of problems with impeachment and ever attempt at it has been a dog's breakfast in more ways than one. The Impeachment of Andrew Johnson, the first occur, was an illegitimate attempt to unseat the President by Radical Republicans who were upset he wasn't a Radial Republican.  Make no mistake, I think the Radical Republicans of the 1860s were right and Reformation should have been radical.  But the impeachment was complete nonsense and it rightfully failed.

The illegitimate act didn't bring down the Republic, however, which is something we should keep in mind here.

The second, only only legitimate, attempt at impeaching a President came in 1974 when the House was about to impeach Richard Nixon in the wake of Watergate. The committee working on the effort had adopted some articles and rejected others and was about to send them to the full House when Nixon resigned.  Had he not, the articles would have been as follows:

Article I, obstruction of justice
On June 17, 1972, and prior thereto, agents of the Committee for the Re-election of the President committed unlawful entry of the headquarters of the Democratic National Committee in Washington, District of Columbia, for the purpose of securing political intelligence. Subsequent thereto, Richard M. Nixon, using the powers of his high office, engaged personally and through his close subordinates and agents, in a course of conduct or plan designed to delay, impede, and obstruct the investigation of such illegal entry; to cover up, conceal and protect those responsible; and to conceal the existence and scope of other unlawful covert activities.



Article II, abuse of power
Using the powers of the office of President of the United States, Richard M. Nixon, in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in disregard of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed, has repeatedly engaged in conduct violating the constitutional rights of citizens, impairing the due and proper administration of justice and the conduct of lawful inquiries, or contravening the laws governing agencies of the executive branch and the purposes of these agencies.



Article III, contempt of Congress
In his conduct of the office of President of the United States, Richard M. Nixon, contrary to his oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed, has failed without lawful cause or excuse to produce papers and things as directed by duly authorized subpoenas issued by the Committee on the Judiciary of the House of Representatives on April 11, 1974, May 15, 1974, May 30, 1974, and June 24, 1974, and willfully disobeyed such subpoenas. The subpoenaed papers and things were deemed necessary by the Committee in order to resolve by direct evidence fundamental, factual questions relating to Presidential direction, knowledge or approval of actions demonstrated by other evidence to be substantial grounds for impeachment of the President. In refusing to produce these papers and things Richard M. Nixon, substituting his judgment as to what materials were necessary for the inquiry, interposed the powers of the Presidency against the lawful subpoenas of the House of Representatives, thereby assuming to himself functions and judgments necessary to the exercise of the sole power of impeachment vested by the Constitution in the House of Representatives.
That effort, of course, came over 100 years after the first one.

The nation unfortunately wouldn't have so long to wait to experience the third, which was the illegitimate attempt to impeach William Clinton.

For reason that are difficult to grasp now, Clinton, who was a moderate, was detested by Republicans.  Of course, he followed in the wake of Ronald Reagan in some ways, who was detested by Democrats.  Neither of them are detested now and Reagan is widely regarded as a hero, but at the time, he was vilified. So was Clinton, the last President, fwiw,  to not run a deficit.

Anyhow, the whole effort against Clinton was simply silly and it was a charade based on the fact that he had the personal morals of an alley cat. That may be despicable, but then no body tried to impeach JFK who had the same problem.  He was really being impeached due to a gotcha moment with Monica Lewinsky in which he testified he hadn't had sex with her.

In fact, he told the truth on that, and it shows how dense Americans are that they now think fellatio is actually sex.  It isn't.  That doesn't make it right, and what Clinton did was icky, but sex is a pretty clearly defined act in mammals and that isn't it.  Anyhow, his articles of impeachment read:
Article I 

In his conduct while President of the United States, William Jefferson Clinton, in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in violation of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed, has willfully corrupted and manipulated the judicial process of the United States for his personal gain and exoneration, impeding the administration of justice, in that:


On August 17, 1998, William Jefferson Clinton swore to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth before a Federal grand jury of the United States. Contrary to that oath, William Jefferson Clinton willfully provided perjurious, false and misleading testimony to the grand jury concerning one or more of the following: (1) the nature and details of his relationship with a subordinate Government employee; (2) prior perjurious, false and misleading testimony he gave in a Federal civil rights action brought against him; (3) prior false and misleading statements he allowed his attorney to make to a Federal judge in that civil rights action; and (4) his corrupt efforts to influence the testimony of witnesses and to impede the discovery of evidence in that civil rights action. 

In doing this, William Jefferson Clinton has undermined the integrity of his office, has brought disrepute on the Presidency, has betrayed his trust as President, and has acted in a manner subversive of the rule of law and justice, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States

Wherefore, William Jefferson Clinton, by such conduct, warrants impeachment and trial, and removal from office and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust, or profit under the United States. 

Article IV 

Using the powers and influence of the office of President of the United States, William Jefferson Clinton, in violation of his constitutional oath faithfully to execute the office of President of the United States and, to the best of his ability, preserve, protect, and defend the Constitution of the United States, and in disregard of his constitutional duty to take care that the laws be faithfully executed, has engaged in conduct that resulted in misuse and abuse of his high office, impaired the due and proper administration of justice and the conduct of lawful inquiries, and contravened the authority of the legislative branch and the truth seeking purpose of a coordinate investigative proceeding, in that, as President, William Jefferson Clinton refused and failed to respond to certain written requests for admission and willfully made perjurious, false and misleading sworn statements in response to certain written requests for admission propounded to him as part of the impeachment inquiry authorized by the House of Representatives of the Congress of the United States. William Jefferson Clinton, in refusing and failing to respond and in making perjurious, false and misleading statements, assumed to himself functions and judgments necessary to the exercise of the sole power of impeachment vested by the Constitution in the House of Representatives and exhibited contempt for the inquiry.

In doing this, William Jefferson Clinton has undermined the integrity of his office, has brought disrepute on the Presidency, has betrayed his trust as President, and has acted in a manner subversive of the rule of law and justice, to the manifest injury of the people of the United States.

Wherefore, William Jefferson Clinton, by such conduct warrants impeachment and trial, and removal from office and disqualification to hold and enjoy any office of honor, trust,or profit under the United States.
One and Four?  Yes, the House didn't vote to impeach on proposed articles two and three.

Note, by the way, how lengthy these are.  That's notable as while the impeachment effort was pure political bs theater, the Congress of that era was seemingly able to be a bit more substantive in drafting text.

Lots of Democrats warned at the time that the impeachment of Clinton would prove to be a mistake as it lowered the bar for impeachment down to moral ickyness and "we don't like you", a standard which would at least require John F. Kennedy to be exhumed from his grave and posthumously impeached for championship level moral ickiness.  The Senate, of course, thought better of it and acquitted but none the less the bar was now set pretty low.

And it has been ever since. All during President Obama's two terms of office there were cries to impeach him for no reason at all and the cries to impeach President Trump commenced prior to his even taking an oath of office.

Trump and his supporters note that there have been cries to impeach him ever since he took office and therefore the entire process is illegitimate.  The fact that there was early animosity doesn't make the effort illegitimate, but it does raise real questions.  Trying to answer those now, more than one Democrat has now claimed that Trump's actions are "worse than Nixon's".

Oh, get real.

Trump's actions may be bad, but worse than Nixon is absurd.  Nixon is the only American President who really deserved to have been impeached.

In fact, President Ford did the country a massive disservice by pardoning Nixon.  He shouldn't have.  Nixon should have been arrested, tried and convicted after his resignation, and gone on to have served a term in prison. That would have been a real lesson that nobody was above the law, and set the bar on impeachment, even though it would not have occurred, right where it should have been.

b.  So where we are now?

Proceeding an a turtle like pace the House has voted to impeach.  So now the matter needs to be sent to the President.  And Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi is set to do just that. . . well maybe not.
Indeed, as it is clear that the GOP in the Senate intends to pretty much shut an impeachment trial down after doing is bare duty, now the Speaker his holding the Articles trying to negotiate with the Senate.

Pelosi, who didn't want to (correctly) proceed with impeachment in the first place, now delusionally or desperately believes that by withholding the articles from the Senate, she can get the Senate to guarantee a full blown Senate trial with procedures she wants.

That's a little like a person on the block who is known for not washing his clothes and bad hygiene who wants to talk conspiracy theories while belching, threatening not to come to the block party if you don't accept his home made bourbon flooded fruit cake.  The choice there is pretty easy. The Senate isn't going to say "Oh please Nancy, don't hold the articles of impeachment! We'll do what you want".

That's nonsense.

Indeed, as if nobody in Congress has noticed so far, this entire process has been so slow glaciers are like drag racers in comparison.  Not submitting the articles puts this further and further into 2020 every day.  If she doesn't get the articles over until January, this won't get rolling until March, or later.  That would suit the GOP in Congress just fine.

Of course, everyone knows that once this gets to the Senate it will fail, and in fact stands a really good chance of being summarily dismissed. Senate Republicans have made that plain and the recent history of impeachment supports it.  Clinton was impeached as he and Lewinsky were being nasty in the Oval Office. That's not really a crime, it must means that Lewinsky and Clinton both had trashy morals.  The effort was political.  

Trump isn't being impeached for an actual crime and by this point the Democrats have a hard time actually saying what he's being impeached for. Basically, it amounts to using his office to try to get an investigation into a political rival's son rolling, which isn't illegal but is immoral.  Of course, Hunter Biden's occupying a highly lucrative position with a Ukrainian gas company is corrupt in its own way, and Joe Biden's protection of his son earlier on is corrupt in its own way.  None of it is illegal.  Added to that, the concept of Ukrainian interference rather than Russian in the 2016 election is pretty absurd.

Absurdity isn't illegality, however, and that's the problem.  The Clinton impeachment lowered the bar to using the process as a means of trying to remove a President simply because the other party didn't like him.  Given it being lowered that far, "political midemeanoring" seems like a legitimate exercise in impeachment.  Indeed, this may be a watershed moment not for what it appears to be, but for the final conversion, which started during the Clinton process, of the impeachment clause into a Congressional vote of no confidence.

Ultimately, we don't really know, however, what is and isn't legitimate, as its never gone to the United States Supreme Court.  The Court would probably just hold its a political act, but that can't be guaranteed.  Indeed, the impeachment process really gives the Court hte opportunity to make itself absolutely the top branch of government as it could define "high crimes and misdemeanors" in such a way as to actually require a, well. . . high crime or misdemeanor.  Congress doesn't seem to have considered this possibility, however.

Well, it's not going to happen here.  Nancy Pelosi is going to threaten for a while to hold her breath until she turns blue and the Senate is going to let her do just that. After that, she may or may not eventually send the articles over, and a short trial and acquittal will result. The American public is already completely tired of the whole thing and ignoring it.  In the fall, those who already think Trump the worst President ever will still think that, those who think he's the best President ever will still think that, and those in the middle will be making up their decision on other grounds, with a lot of that ground being the question of how much they dislike whomever the Democrats nominate.

At any rate, the republic wills survive no matter what occurs.  The cries about democracy being in the balance are simply that, cries.  If anything comes out of this maybe there's a chance, albeit a small one, that a Congress that quit doing its job over the 20th Century will rediscover that it has one.  Indeed, if the impeachment clause has become a vote of no confidence, it implies that Congress is actually going to work, as its replaced the Chief Executive.  The Chief Executive, starting as long ago as the Administration of Theodore Roosevelt, has been allowed to rule in ways that exceeded the vision of the founders of the republic.  Bringing an imperial presidency to an end, if not necessarily by impeachment, would be a good development, really, in terms of democracy, but only if the national legislature is prepared to resume its constitutional role.

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I'd forgotten that I'd started a separate thread on this topic and was lamenting not having done so, particularly as the news has become quite odd recently following the entire NPR/Pompeo incident.  So, now aware that I did start this, I'm going to update with my recent entries, and then go from there.

In other news impacting the election, the impeachment trial hasn't commenced and Mitch McConnell is threatening to start the process in the Senate unilaterally without the House resolution actually having been sent over.  And a situation is developing with Iran that threatens to make Trump a wartime President with an additional war, although how that develops has yet to be seen.

January 8, 2020.


The House finally voted to send the Articles of Impeachment to the Senate yesterday and the Senators will be sworn as impeachment jurors today.  Just before that seven House impeachment managers will walk over to the Senate and read the articles.  The managers, which NPR claims all have strong legal backgrounds, are Hakeem Jeffries, Sylvia Garcia, Jerry Nadler, Adam Schiff, Val Demings, Zoe Lofgren, and Jason Crow.

Schiff is the only widely known name right now, due to his role in the Impeachment inquiry in the House.  That role is likely why he was chosen, although he strikes a lot of people the wrong way, including myself, due to his pompous demeanor.

January 16, 2020

In other campaign related news, the very day that the Impeachment indictment went over to the Senate an indited Russian born witness claimed first hand knowledge of the Ukrainian events and claimed that it was always an effort to get the Bidens.  This has been treated as explosive news by the Press and even more explosive by left wing Twitterites.

The problem with that is that so far its being met with sort of a collective yawn nationally and it doesn't seem surprising so it's not clear how much of an impact this really makes. Additionally, the news coming in the form of a Rachel Maddow interview of an indited person makes it a bit problematic, rather obviously.  I doubt it'll have much of an impact on actual proceedings when they get rolling.  On those proceedings, we still don't really know what they'll be like.


January 17, 2020

On the Impeachment, Trumps team rolled out and tested their defense, which is that whatever Trump may have done was bad, but it's not illegal, and therefore not impeachable.  Democrats dissed that argument but frankly there's at least something to it.  Following this impeachment trial that may very well end up being the standard for the process when the results are combined with the earlier Andrew Johnson impeachment trial.

January 20, 2020.

That trial started yesterday but it was all motion practice that went late into the night.  Justice Roberts admonished the lawyers for both side for the nature of their remarks about their opponents.

January 22, 2020

Here are the rules for the Impeachment Trial being held in the Senate:

Rules.

I think they've actually been somewhat modified from this form.  The argument that was originally to be delivered over two days, for a total of twenty-four hours, is now to be delivered in three days.

That's for each side.  I.e., each side presents their arguments over a three day period. That's basically the meat of each side's case.

Reporting on this has been somewhat inaccurate, as the press has been referring to these arguments as "opening arguments", such as occur in trials. They are not.  This is basically a gigantic motion hearing in front of a jury of Senators with the evidence being whatever it already is, as generated in the House.  There will be no additional witnesses and the testimony won't really be presented by the parties in a normal fashion, but rather through their arguments.  It's frankly a bizarre way to conduct proceedings of this type, but that's the way they are doing it. As such, it's not really a trial.

After the arguments the Senators may question the parties for up to sixteen hours, which also isn't much.  Following that, there will be arguments again with each side being given four hours.

So this "impeachment trial" is really one long impeachment hearing argument with some ability to present questions by each side.

January 23, 2020

And so that's where we are, sort of.  That doesn't address the Pompeo event, of course, which we'll have to do.

January 26, 2020

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Okay, now that we're more or less up to date and the Senate had Sunday off, where are we at?

Well, the thing that revived this thread was the interview of Mike Pompeo by NPR's Mary Louise Kelly.  Something went wrong in the interview at the point where the topic of Ukraine came up and Pompeo terminated the interview, called Kelly into another room, and dressed her down for what he apparently saw was an off the grid topic she wasn't supposed to bring up.  According to Kelly, Pompeo indicated that the American people didn't care about the Ukraine and he challenged Kelly to find Ukraine on a map, which she says she did.

Apparently Pompeo believed all of this was supposed to be off the record, which wasn't how Kelly viewed it, and she reported on it. That sent Pompeo off on an attack with his own version of this in which he claims that Kelly couldn't find Ukraine on the map.

Frankly, while only Pompeo and Kelly know the truth here, Kelly's version sounds a lot more credible and Pompeo's reaction is off the charts and strange.

What's this have to do with the impeachment?  Well, maybe nothing, but it does show that the administration must be on pins and needles about it in order for a high level official to have such a weird reaction to something of this type.

If so, the drama now circling former official John Bolton must be doing the same.  Bolton has been flirting with being a witness at the impeachment for awhile and now the New York Times is reporting that his as yet unpublished memoir of this period will state that Trump did hold up funds to the Ukraine in an attempt to get Ukraine to investigate his political rivals.  This has sent Twitter lefties into a feeding frenzy.

Frankly, at this point, that news would be a lot like a member of the Franklin Roosevelt Administration publishing a memoir in 1942 stating that the US knew that our ships would probably get shot at escorting convoys prior to our entry into the war.  We all know this already.  Indeed, it isn't really being argued about that much.

The interesting argument that developed with the close of the Democratic argument last week is whether there will be any witnesses or not.  The GOP appears unlikely to support a motion to do that and the Democrats are flustered on what to do.  Both sides advance arguments that are somewhat weak in regard to the general topic.  The Republicans have been saying, about the evidence submitted, "is this all you have?" while the Democrats are saying "there'd be more if we called witnesses" to which the GOP replies "well why didn't you do that then?"

Proceduraly, there's no reason that the Democrats couldn't have called more witnesses in the House, but then there also wasn't a reason that they'd have to, which brings us to the dog's breakfast nature of this provision of the U.S. Constitution.  In spite of all of the yammering about it, nobody really knows how this provision was supposed to work.  We know that the Senate is the jury and the Chief Justice presides, but we don't know anything else about how exactly  it is supposed to be done.

What would appear to be the case is that the founders had a real trial in mind, with the Senate sitting as a real jury and the Chief Justice actually running the trial.  That's not what's occurring and that's now what occurred in the Clinton impeachment trial either.  In the Clinton impeachment deposition testimony was used, which at least is testimony.  In contrast, in the Andrew Johnson impeachment, actual witnesses were called.

The Johnson impeachment, which was as political as any of them, was at least in the form of a trial and probably the last impeachment to be conducted in the manner envisioned by the drafters of the Constitution.  The current one likely grossly departs from what the founders imagined, irrespective of whether a person feels that it should be occurring or not.  Defenders of the proceeding have argued that the Senate has the authority to craft the rules but frankly I'm skeptical that they do if they depart too greatly.  Basically, what is occurring are epic length oral arguments.

The Chief Justice may have the ability to order witnesses to appear on his own and I suspect he does.  In the Andrew Johnson impeachment it was clear that the Chief Justice had conventional judge powers should he have chosen to exercise them.  In both this and the Clinton impeachment the Justice doesn't seem to be doing much of anything.

Indeed, there's no reason to believe that John Roberts couldn't have voir dired the Senators about their ability to act impartially, in which case at least a few Senators would have been tossed out as Senator jurors.

The Administration's arguments, I should note, are based on the position that whatever Trump may have done, it wasn't illegal.  If the Democrats are generally right on there being a need to call witnesses, and after all the House sits more as a Grand Jury rather than as a trial court in its own right, the Republicans are probably right here.  The text of the Constitution seems to be drafted to require a real trial about real crimes.  This isn't in the form of a real trial, but the accusations against Trump aren't real crimes, they're just really bad behavior.  The Democrats have more or less acknowledged this and have argued that the founders really meant really bad behavior too.  The problem with that argument is that its really subjective in general, and moreover its an argument that the impeachment process isn't a judicial or quasi judicial one, but a purely political one.  If that's the case, the GOP is right that it can craft the hearing any way it wants to.

It seems unlikely that the drafters would have created a purely political process to be presided over by the Chief Justice of the United States, which I guess shows the entire mess of the current proceeding.  Nancy Pelosi was reluctant to go down this route for real reasons, and right now it looks like this will be a mistake all the way around.  It'll probably conclude by the end of the week, Trump will be able to use it with his base to declare vindication, those on the left who were outraged about Trump's conduct before the impeachment still will be, but those numbers haven't grown, the rebuke by the voters that the Democrats keep claiming will happen likely won't, but for the second time in less than fifty years the impeachment clause of the Constitution has been misused and damaged.  The whole process will likely wrap up this week, but the damage will be lasting.

January 27, 2020
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Well the presentation of arguments by both sides is over and the questioning session begun.

So far, the only really dramatic event to come out of that was an effort by Senator Rand Paul to have Chief Justice Roberts read a question that contained the name of the "whistle blower".  The Chief Justice had made it known before hand he'd not do that, and when in fact he didn't, Rand went shooting out of the room to reveal the name in a press conference.

That was really childish and inappropriate on the part of Rand and frankly it violates the rules of the road for the impeachment.  The Chief Justice really ought to find him in contempt for doing that.

Somewhat missed by the public, we'd note, is the fact that in order for the President Trump to be removed from office twenty Republicans will have to cross party lines and vote for it.  From the press coverage a person would get the impression that if one or two do so, Trump is in trouble.  No, it would take twenty. That won't happen.  It's not even clear at this point that all the Democrats will vote in favor of it.

Of course, if a majority, but still far short of twenty, voted for it, it would be embarrassing for the President.  That's a possibility.  But a greater possibility is that a few Democrats will vote to acquit.

January 31, 2020
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Two things didn't occur in the impeachment trial yesterday.  The Senate didn't vote to hear witnesses and the trial didn't end.

There was a lot of speculation on whether there would be enough GOP Senators cross over and vote for witnesses. In the end, there wasn't and the vote fell short.  So, we've had the odd spectacle of a trial without witnesses, although frankly the overall procedure was odd to start with.

There was widespread speculation that if the Senate didn't vote for witnesses the trial would conclude.  That didn't occur either.

February 1, 2020
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Oops, bumped up in error.

But while here, the impeachment trial will resume today with closings.  It appears that President Trump may very well deliver his State of the Union address with this matter still pending.

February 3, 2020.

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Both sides delivered their closing arguments yesterday.  The Democratic prosecution had their's presented by Adam Schiff and took their full two hours.  The Republican defense took a little over half of its allotted time, showing that they had a better idea of how to do summations than their opponents.  Using the full two hours was a sign of weakness and potentially a degree of self focus that served their cause ill.

Indeed, while not directly connected, the two big political events of yesterday made the Democrats look rather pathetic in general.  The full realization that there was never any chance whatsoever that twenty Republican Senators would cross over to vote to remove the President on the charges presented seemingly finally sank in even though it was obvious to anyone who took a calm view of the proceedings from the onsets.  Only in the fevered imaginations of House Democrats and Sunday political show pundits was there ever any chance that would occur.  It was always a complete fantasy.  The ancillary view that at least it would expose corruption to the "American People" who would rise up in electoral anger is just as much of a fantasy.  The public is tired in the fatigued sense and this merely contributed to it at first, before the public became bored with a bunch of yapping figures on the Senate floor arguing about a result that was foreordained.  In the end, only the pundits really remained interested and even they were moving on to Iowa.  The impact on the "American People" that Democrats cited to again and again was probably to increase the universal contempt that a lot of average Americans feel for Congress in general.

And then came Iowa and the Democrats managed to botch the caucus.  A more pathetic showing wouldn't have been possible and the Democrats manage to come out of both events of yesterday looking like the gang that couldn't shoot straight.  As that occurred, Democratic campaign adherents began to complain about each other, with Sanders fans calling Buttigieg "Pete the Cheat".  A past history of ignoring procedural defects and going for unelectable candidates was clearly reviving itself.

Today the vote will be taken and this chapter will close.  Most of the public is glad that it will be over.  Those who backed it in the first place now have to consider that the end result may have been to weaken the Constitution in general, the very objective they claimed to hope to avoid.  One GOP figure already has claimed that if Joe Biden is elected, he may have to be impeached over the entire Hunter Biden in Ukraine matter.  I think that unlikely, but the path this is taking the country off on, a path that was started with President Clinton was impeached and shouldn't be, is one that is pretty hard to turn around and go back down to find another starting place.

February 4, 2020

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And so the vote was finally taken yesterday and it fell, with the solitary exception of Mitt Romney, strictly along party lines.

I say unfortunately not for the reasons that unhappy Democrats, who were delusional that this would result in the removal of the President in the first place, do.  I.e., not for comments like this one on Politic's breakdown on the vote:
Hmm gotta say I underestimated Romney. The only Republican in America with any integrity and decency.
Nor do I think replies like this one make any sense:

I understand that a "yes" vote also voted for Trump's removal from all state ballots in the Nov election. If that is true, the Democrats have officially become the Communist Party.


Rather I think it's unfortunate as a vote without a few Republicans voting to impeach and/or a few Democrats voting to acquit de-legitimizes the entire constitutional provision.  We've now had an impeachment trial without any witnesses that was sent over to the Senate on a strict party line vote under the completely delusional belief that the same wouldn't occur in the Senate.  Indeed, the surprising thing isn't so much that Romney was the only Republican to vote to remove, and he only voted yes on one article, not both, but that no Democrats voted to acquit.  In the end, this wasn't a waste of time, it was an attempted vote of no confidence that largely ignored the Constitutional text, which is admittedly very poorly defined, and cheapened the impeachment process.

Given that this was so predictable a person has to wonder what the Democrats were actually thinking.  If the concept was to take the moral high ground it would appear that the ground is recognized only to a limited degree and it's unlikely to profit them in taking it.  If it was to take a pre 2020 swipe at Trump, they took the swipe but they didn't connect and that likewise appears to have had no effect.  If they simply felt they must as it was their duty, and Mitt Romney was no doubt motivated by what he felt his duty to be, well they've done it, and perhaps that achieves something, although by way of a process that was bizarre in how it was done and whose long term impacts appear to have been poorly considered.

On long term impacts, after Richard Nixon was nearly impeached Congress, although only temporarily, acted to take back some of the powers which has lazily ceded to the President over time.  The Democrats here have shown themselves to be bitterly unhappy with the actions of the current President and at least some Republicans had qualms as well, although only Romney was sufficiently burdened by them as to vote to remove Trump.  Maybe its time for both the House and the Senate, if their displeasure is genuine, to resume their own Constitutional duties in full, which hasn't happened for an extremely long time.

As for Romney, the sole dissenter in the GOP ranks, nobody, including President Trump, should criticize him for that.  There's no reason to believe that his vote wasn't genuine.  The irony here is that he was run down by Democrats, who are now praising him, when he ran on the basis that he was an elitist.  And for those who wonder if he's positioning himself for a future run at the Presidency, well so what if he is?

February 6, 2020

Mitt Romney's speech:


The President withheld vital military funds from that government to press it to do so. 
The President delayed funds for an American ally at war with Russian invaders. 
The President's purpose was personal and political.Accordingly, the President is guilty of an appalling abuse of the public trust. 
What he did was not "perfect"— No, it was a flagrant assault on our electoral rights, our national security interests, and our fundamental values. Corrupting an election to keep oneself in office is perhaps the most abusive and destructive violation of one's oath of office that I can imagine. 
In the last several weeks, I have received numerous calls and texts. Many demand that, in their words, "I stand with the team." I can assure you that that thought has been very much on my mind. I support a great deal of what the President has done. I have voted with him 80% of the time. But my promise before God to apply impartial justice required that I put my personal feelings and biases aside. Were I to ignore the evidence that has been presented, and disregard what I believe my oath and the Constitution demands of me for the sake of a partisan end, it would, I fear, expose my character to history's rebuke and the censure of my own conscience. 
I am aware that there are people in my party and in my state who will strenuously disapprove of my decision, and in some quarters, I will be vehemently denounced. I am sure to hear abuse from the President and his supporters. Does anyone seriously believe I would consent to these consequences other than from an inescapable conviction that my oath before God demanded it of me? 
I sought to hear testimony from John Bolton not only because I believed he could add context to the charges, but also because I hoped that what he said might raise reasonable doubt and thus remove from me the awful obligation to vote for impeachment.Like each member of this deliberative body, I love our country. I believe that our Constitution was inspired by Providence. I am convinced that freedom itself is dependent on the strength and vitality of our national character. As it is with each senator, my vote is an act of conviction. We have come to different conclusions, fellow senators, but I trust we have all followed the dictates of our conscience. 
I acknowledge that my verdict will not remove the President from office. The results of this Senate Court will in fact be appealed to a higher court: the judgement of the American people. Voters will make the final decision, just as the President's lawyers have implored. My vote will likely be in the minority in the Senate. But irrespective of these things, with my vote, I will tell my children and their children that I did my duty to the best of my ability, believing that my country expected it of me. I will only be one name among many, no more or less, to future generations of Americans who look at the record of this trial. They will note merely that I was among the senators who determined that what the President did was wrong, grievously wrong. 
We're all footnotes at best in the annals of history. But in the most powerful nation on earth, the nation conceived in liberty and justice, that is distinction enough for any citizen.

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When I posted Mitt Romney's speech I figured that would be the last entry on this thread.  It should have been in a world in which people were acting normally.

But they aren't, so it isn't.

On the speech, in reviewing it again, I'm struck by the numerous references to Romney's religious convictions. 

Religion played an immediate post impeachment role in a story as President Trump dissed Nancy Pelosi at the National Prayer Breakfast which came soon after the impeachment vote.  It wasn't gracious and his remarks weren't very Christian either.  Perhaps we shouldn't really expect Trump to act as a devout person might, but it definitely wasn't gracious.  Of course, Pelosi, whose better instincts were to avoid an impeachment trial, seems out to sea right now and acted rather petulantly in ripping up her copy of President Trump's State of the Union Address.

Pelosi is the Speaker of the House, of course, and now there's real questions if the House is essentially out of business until 2021.

Three people who are out of their jobs are Ambassador to the European Union Sondland and the Colonels Vindman, both the one who testified in the House hearings and his brother.  The latter two men were replaced from their White House roles but will remain in the Army, where I'm sure they will do well.  But the acts show that crossing Trump, not surprisingly, has consequences, something that at least some GOP Senators feared in regard to their votes.

Hopefully this all calms down soon, although it seems unlikely to.

February 8, 2020

Monday, December 16, 2019

The 2020 Election, Part 4

"The election is only one year from today".



"Only"?

That's the comment I heard on the news this morning, and my reaction, and that's why we've started a new thread here even though the last one wasn't at that stage where we'd normally go to the next installment.

The campaign has being going on for months and there's still a year to go. Frankly, that's patently absurd.

Canada recently had a national election that featured a campaign of about sixty days. That's just about right.  An election process that takes over a year to complete is monumentally messed up.  No regular person is paying that much attention at this stage and that means that the only ones who are, are political aficionados who likely don't reflect the views of average voters at all.

This isn't all of it of course.  But it doesn't help.  By this time we will have had an election, but we will also have had endless primaries, caucuses, and conventions.  Congress will go in and out of session as will the Supreme Court.  The House will have voted to impeach the President and the Senate will vote to keep him in office.  Quite a few voters who voted in the early primary seasons will be dead by the election itself, and new voters who vote in the general election will not have been old enough to have voted in the primary.  Pundits are fond of saying that tradition is the vote of the dead, but in this system, the vote of the dead actually is the vote of the dead.

November 4, 2020.

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Yesterday came the news that Michael Bloomberg is filing to run as a Democratic candidate for the Presidency in Alabama.

This is more in the nature of preserving his options than anything else.  Alabama has an absurdly early deadline to file to run for the office.  As I've noted before, the entire country would be better off if this entire process only had a 90 day lead into the General Election, rather than a year long one. Anyhow, Bloomberg has to file there if he intends to run anywhere.  It doesn't mean he will run.

It also doesn't mean he won't and he's obviously thinking about it.

If he does, it'll be a real symbol of what's currently wrong with American politics.  Bloomberg is 77 years old and yet another East Coast candidate.

Just a week or so ago a 25 year old New Zealand politician noting the average age of House of Commons members there in a speech was heckled by an older politician and suddenly became famous when she dismissed the heckling seamlessly with a "OK Boomer" retort.  That action has shocked members of the Baby Boom generation, and no wonder given that they have such a death grip on American politics.  The average age of the U.S. House of Representatives is 58 years of age, and the Senate 62 years of age.  The average age of the top contenders for the Presidency right now has to be in the 70s.  The last thing the Democrats need is another candidate whose political concepts were cast in the 1960s.

Indeed, my prediction is that if Bloomberg runs, the temptation for Hilary Clinton to run will become overwhelming.  Bloomberg's candidacy only makes sense in any fashion if Biden is crashing towards a failure, assuming that Bloomberg isn't wholly delusional about his chances of success and assuming that he's not willing to drag the entire party down in order to make whatever point he's seeking to make.  Assuming that those items are not the case, a Clinton run actually makes more sense than a Bloomberg one, and she'll know that.

November 8, 2019

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Americans today will experience something they haven't since the early 1990s, that being live televised impeachment proceedings.  Indeed, they'll actually experience something they've never experienced to the extent these will, which is live electronic media impeachment proceedings.

As noted above, there's now less than one year before the General Election and its difficult to imagine Congress really doing anything rapidly.  How long these will go on isn't clear to the author, but we're in the tail end of 2019 now, and even if Congress moves with blistering speed, nothing is really going to get done prior to the end of the year. Assuming that Congress moves forward really quickly, and assuming that there's a party line vote, that would mean that the Senate might have an Impeachment Trial on its plate in very early 2020.

Whether the Senate moves quickly is another matter. Both sets of proceedings risk being turned into circuses of a sort, and the length of them might end up depending upon how long any one body feels that they obtain an advantage by doing that. Any way its looked at, however, it seems the results are basically clear right now.  The House will vote to impeach and the Senate will vote not to.

What isn't clear is how this will impact the overall election.  If there are real bombshells that come out during the proceedings, it might.  Having said that, so far nothing has really changed all that much in basic support in committed camps to date.  A real risk for the Democrats may be that the focus on this sort of thing has now run for a full three years and they're exposed to claims of having done nothing else.  Irrespective of how a person feels on that sort of claim, it's already starting to circulate and it makes a bad basis for anyone's Presidential campaign.

Those old enough to remember the Nixon impeachment in the 1970s will recall that there was an overall air of collapse at the time.  This was less true during the Clinton proceedings, but at that time there was a real feeling of political cynicism.  Both atmospheres stand to be much amplified this time.  That the country could go for a century between the first and second impeachment efforts, and then end up doing it three times in less than fifty years isn't a good development.

November 13, 2019

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Deval Patrick, formerly the Governor of Massachusetts, has entered the race as a Democratic candidate.

Patrick, age 63, is taking the late entry approach.  It'll be interesting to see if this works for him. Coming in now, he will receive attention at this late stage whereas many earlier former stars in the campaign have faded.  At age 63, while not young by normal calculations, he is in this race. He's generally a liberal candidate.

It's now strongly rumored that Hilary Clinton is in fact pondering running.  I think at this point she's likely decided to in fact run.  My guess is that a full Bloomberg announcement and a Clinton one will come shortly.

Clinton is unlikely to be any more successful in 2020 than previously, and I don't believe that she'll secure the nomination.  Her mere presence in the race, however, will hurt the Democrats overall. Bloomberg's will do the same.

November 14, 2019

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Not surprisingly, the weekend shows focused on the impeachment hearings.

One did have Deval Patrick on it, however, and the two I listed to both discussed him.  He's seen as a middle of the road, centrist, Democrat.  In that context, it was noted that the reelection of Louisiana's governor saw the reelection of a Democrat of the nearly extinct social conservative variety. There was quite a bit of speculation that the rank and file is searching for somebody in the middle.

Buttigeg has been rising in the polls in Iowa and there's lots of speculation that may be for the same reason.

Indeed, on the one news show that Patrick was interviewed on he came very close to being examined in a bit of a hostile way on Buttigeg. The suggestion from the while interviewer was, or at least seemed to be, if Patrick was trying to take that position as he realized that he was he was 1) black, and 2) not homosexual, and therefore more electable.  Patrick who probably understood that this was the point, nicely sidestepped it, and frankly the question shouldn't have been asked.

Indeed, Patrick interviewed extremely well in general.  He's clearly more personable than Buttigeg and frankly, if this interview is any guide, more personable than any other running Democrat.  He did miss the ball a bit when asked what the difference was between he and Buttigeg and while he did not that he had a variety of experiences that made him qualified for the Oval Office, he didn't contrast himself directly.  If he had, it would have to be noted that he's been the Governor of a major state, where as Buittigeg has only been the mayor of a mid sized city.

On the same general topic, over the weekend President Obama came out in a speech noting that Americans like improvement but they don't like radical overhaul. That's an arrow shot at the hard left of the Democratic Party.  It did hit home with at least one weekend show pundit who claimed, basically, that Obama was betraying his own past as he had been the radical candidate.  The evidence doesn't support that.

On candidates who don't have a uniformly radical past, Bloomberg, who has been in both parties (like Trump) in his past, disavowed his "stop and frisk" policy from his days as the Mayor of New York. That was controversial, but it was also quite successful, giving us an interesting example of a politician disavowing his own successful actions in the past when they don't fit his current political aims.

November 18, 2019

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I happened to listen (not view) a Democratic debate this season for the first time.

The reason is that Meet The Press had it on their podcast feed and I heard it there while driving somewhere.

It was quite interesting, in part because listening to it gives you a prospective on the prospective of the pundits.  Not too surprisingly, my takeaway was different from theirs.

I'll note that listening to a debate is different than viewing it, and that too can have an impact.  But the Press also tends to go into these debates with a preconceived narrative to a degree, so they're not that inclined to alter it no matter what's said, except around the margins.

Listening to it, it was frankly Andrew Yang who won the debate.  A person doesn't have to agree with everything he believes in order to say that.  He's the only one who had fresh views and didn't have difficulty explaining them.  His answer on national defense was brilliant. So much so that a later "major" candidate co-opted it for his own later answer.

Compared to Yang, everyone looked pretty anemic.  Having said that Buttigieg came across fairly well. An effort to go after his experience by Amy Klobuchar ended up simply embarrassing Klobuchar as Buttigieg dismantled her on that topic and then used  his answer to dismantle everyone else.  Buttigieg also manged to really disrupt a statement by Kamala Harris on none of the white candidates really being able to understand the position of black voters, even though Harris clearly had a point on that demographic being used repeatedly by the Democratic party.  Again, a person doesn't have to agree with Buttigieg on anything in order to see that his debating skills were superior to nearly every other candidate.

Harris came across as a snot and surprisingly relied on her courtroom history as a California district attorney in her closing, noting for most of her professional time she's done that and started off her public addresses with "the people of. . ."  That'd be true, but in a debate in which Corey Booker had just complained about how the government has incarcerated a lot of minorities on drug charges, Harris' former role in putting people in jail seems like an odd thing to emphasize.

Harris was big on "recreating the Obama coalition" without explaining it.  Indeed, the "Obama coalition" may not have really ever existed in the first place.  That emphasizes, however, that the Democratic base isn't anywhere near as left wing as candidates are and that caused hemorrhaging towards Trump in the last election.  It's already known that black voters are uncomfortable with Buttigieg and that the "black church" retains a significant role in that demographic which is likely grater than any other religious demographic in the Democratic party.

Indeed, Warren basically stated that there's no room whatsoever for Democrats like recently re-elected John Bel Edwards in the Democratic Party.  Edwards is pro life and and Warren made support for abortion a litmus test on the basis that its a human rights matter, an extremely weak argument for supporting a policy that ends human life.  Harris leaped on this and indicated that she'd codify Roe v Wade as a matter of Federal law, which isn't a position that many who hold the freedom of state's to craft their own laws will find popular.

While she was able to hardly get a word in, after the debate got rolling, Tulsi Gabbard may have been next to Yang in being clear and blunt.  Her post election role as a commentator and her strong animosity towards the Clintons resulted in a debate with Harris and she pretty much took Harris apart.  Indeed, Harris may have come across the worst in the debate as her answer for everything seems limited to snark.

In terms of ideas, again, like them or not, Yang's were the freshest and well thought out.  Buttigieg's seem thought out.  Klobuchar should have done well, as she does in other venues, but she just came across as angry.  Warren came across as a person whose ideas are limited to the concept that no matter what the problem is, large or small, she'd sick the Federal government on it with a super expensive program of dubious utility.  Indeed, she makes Lyndon Johnson's backing of the Great Society look minor in comparison to what she'd try.

In other news Bloomberg launched a gigantic ad campaign.  The This Week pundits made the interesting observation that he's not really a Democrat, and he's been in both parties.  His presence in the race this late is likely because Warren and Sanders are sinking and people are losing faith in Biden.  It's doubtful that Bloomberg will make a real difference in the race, however, no matter how much money he spends on it.

Bloomberg's entry means that, if we include both parties, there are now no less than three candidates who are old New Yorkers, Bloomberg (who was born in Massachusetts), Sanders (who grew up in New York and retains an extremely thick New York accent) and Trump.  It's hard to grasp, for those who live outside of New York how the state and city retain such a grasp on the nation's politics.

November 25, 2019

I've noted here before that a lot of the demographic assumptions that the Democratic Party has made for quite some time are likely based on a set of false assumptions.  The past week the degree to which that is true and becoming more true started to play out in the primary, all the detriment of Pete Buttigieg.

I noted above that Buttigieg had taken criticism from Kamala Harris and seemingly effectively parried it during the debate. That perception, however, may not have been shared by black voters at all.

Indeed a poll on Buttigieg's position in the upcoming Iowa primary not only showed him last among black voters, but actually at 0%. That's a stunningly low figure and shows that there's definitely going on in a demographic that the Democrats absolutely depend on.  Not only is Buttigieg dead in the water in the campaign if he can't fix that, and that will be hard to fix, but it shows that the party as a whole, may be in really deep trouble in regard to black voters.

We'll get back to that in a moment, but continuing this story on, early in the week a prior statement by Buttigieg surfaced in which he attributed a lack of black economic advancement basically to a lack of role models (I'm really condensing this down).  This resulted in an explosive op ed being published in which a black author not only went after him but in no uncertain terms.  That op ed was in turn rapidly circulated on the Internet and received widespread black voter applause.  Buttigieg reacted by calling the author who credited him with listening, which he said was he could expect a white person to do, showing a real lack of any hope for anyone paying attention to the issues raised.

All that's telling, but a poll that was released coincident with all of this finds that black Democrats are much more conservative, indeed on some issues outright conservative, than their white counterparts. They're also older, showing that the Democrats aren't attracting younger black voters.  That no doubt will stun the Democrats and my prediction is that they'll ignore it.  In the minds of party leadership black voters are in the hardcore left, and that's a view that tends to have been supported by the fact that black politicians who have risen up in the party have seemed to be of the left.

In reality, however, black voters are largely in the Democratic Party due to events that occurred in the 50s through the 80s.  Since that time the GOP has made nearly no effort to recruit black voters even though it knows it needs too.  Irrespective of that, what turns out to be the case is that the black demographic in the Democratic party tends to be conservative on social issues and liberal on economic ones. This is the classic position that pertains to immigrants, and in this sense they're effectively internal immigrants in their own country.

Not yet addressed, this same problem exists for the country's growing Hispanic demographic.  They're highly socially conservative and are only in the Democratic Party because of economic issues and the party's seeming position on immigration.

Up until now none of this has had an impact in a national election, but now for the first time it is. And this shows a trend that's played out with other voting blocks over time.  Once economic conditions are no longer paramount for a voting block, social ones tend to take over.  In the case of the black demographic economic conditions are still an extremely large concern, but social issues are now actually playing out.  And in addition to that Buttigieg, who is the son of an academic and lead what amounts to a very upper middle class, left wing, sheltered life, is showing a lack of understanding on the situation for American blacks that they are really reacting to.

My guess is that he won't be over to overcome this problem.  But beyond that, a person has to wonder if this is a tipping point and the Democratic Party will start to lose black voters.  If it does, at least right now they'll end up independents by and large, which is what actually seems to be happening with younger black voters.  In some rural regions, the Democrats are losing black voters to the GOP, although they seemingly haven't noticed this.  The Democratic Party has three candidates this year who are African Americans, with one being in much too soon to have really been heard from, but those candidates don't seem to be gaining much headway.  All of this may suggest that a voting block that the Democrats have depending on since at least the 1970s is being lost to them seemingly without their having noticed it.

November 28, 2019

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Kamala Harris, whose campaign never really took off, in spite of pundit expectation that it would, bowed out of the race yesterday.

Harris never seemed to really get rolling and instead came across as a younger candidate, in the American sense (age 55) who had promise but somehow never delivered.  Her most notable moments came when 1) she proposed clearly unconstitutional actions in regards to firearms and was debated down on the topic by Joe Biden; and 2) when she took Buttigieg to task in regard to his statements about his support of the black community.  Those latter statements may very well have impacted him as the following week he was the subject of an op ed that was blistering on the topic.

Harris was a prosecutor prior to becoming a politician and frankly, to some degree, that may have hurt her in the Democratic field.  She came across as snarky, something that lawyers can easily do if they've spent much time in the courtroom, and its hard to take a candidate very seriously about their support of the downtrodden if they've spent a career in that branch of the law.  She was from the hardcore left and her departure leaves the field somewhat more level.

Also departing the race is Montana's governor Steve Bullock (age 53). Bullock was a moderate who should have done well as a candidate from a state where he has to pull from all political spectrum.  His campaign, however never took off and he acknowledged that and withdrew in the face of the inevitable.

The Harris departure brought another politician into the Twitter spectrum when Washington Post reporter Matt Viser noted that now the only candidates who have qualified to appear in the next debate are Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren.  Qualification is based on funds raised and therefore this doesn't reflect every Democrat running.  Yang and Booker, for example, are running.

Anyhow, Viser noted that this meant that while the field was "historically large and diverse" it is now all white.

This is interesting for a number of reasons.  For one thing, there's been a press obsession with the ethnicity of candidates that has actually operated to make it less diverse than it actually is.  Harris was regarded as black by the press, but that definition really hearkens back to the old Slave States definition of black as "one drop of blood".  In reality, her mother was of Tamil heritage and was born in Indian and who had Canadian and American citizenship.  Her father was from Jamaica.  Both parents had strong careers in academics.  Harris regarded herself, quite naturally, as black and Indian, but her ethnic heritage gives her a different ethnic heritage than most African Americans.  The press never really looked at this and simply regarded her as African American.  Corey Booker, on the other hand, has a more conventional African American heritage.

This none the less brings up a point which pundits seem to dance around.  While Harris expressly noted that she was "the only black candidate on the stage" last debate, her support among black voters was just slightly better than Buttigieg's, which is at a stunning 0%.  Harris may in fact have suffered i this area by claiming to be "black" when that status doesn't reflect the same sort of experience that the average African American would have.  White voters certainly aren't going to bring this up but African American voters have been highly savvy about things in the past.  They tend to very strong identify with candidates that they believe appreciate their circumstances and often don't worry about ethnicity when they vote as a result, preferring results over ethnicity.  Indeed, even in the segregation era black communities in the South would sometimes vote for white candidates that appeared to support segregation in a race, as they knew that their actual efforts in office would aid them.

This may have played into rock bottom black support for Harris in the race.  She was claiming to be black and does have Jamaican black heritage, but she's also half Tamil as well and her personal history diverges significantly from most African Americans.  As a former prosecutor, moreover, she has a history that most African Americans would have associated a lot more with problems in the system than with efforts to address them.

Booker's campaign is also faltering and signs exist that he'll be out of the race quite soon.  Earlier in the week he was begging for donations so that he could qualify for the next debate and that appears to have failed.  So far he is still in.  For some reason his campaign also has rock bottom support in his own ethnicity.  The reason for that is hard to grasp, but it may simply be because black voters don't regard him as somebody who will likely be effective.  It might also be, however, because his credentials haven't really impressed them so far.

An added aspect of this, however, ties into Buttigieg. All three of these candidates, Buttigieg, Book and Harris lacked support not only from black Democrats, but from Hispanic candidates as well. Again, this may simply be because minority voters identify with effectiveness over ethnicity, to their credit, but it may also be because the old reasons for these communities identifying with the Democratic Party are wearing off.  Combined with that, these communities contain social views that are much more conservative than the Democrats have been espousing in recent years.  This has been wholly ignored by the Democratic Party as a whole and minority Democratic candidates have very carefully aligned themselves with the seeming party platform in order to note loose white Democratic support. But a winnowing process seems to be going on, hardly noticed, in which, in spite of its claims to the contrary, the Democratic Party is becoming the WASP party.  It's presently hemorrhaging young black members as a result.

The remaining African American candidate, Deval Patrick, can't qualify for a debate yet as he just started running and hasn't obtained sufficient donations.  Of course, another new candidate who is extremely well self funded, Michael Bloomberg, can't qualify either.

Anyhow, Viser noted that while the field started large and diverse, only white candidates will be debating next go around, which isn't implicitly diverse.  Perhaps that's true, but it can't be said that Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren are all stamped out of the same mold either in numerous ways.  Be that as it may, Liz Cheney took Viser's comments as the opportunity to comment on Twitter, about Warren; "What about Pocahontas"

What exactly would motivate a person to say a thing like we'd have to leave unanswered, but it wasn't a smart thing to do.  It drew floods of Twitter protests and it make Cheney look incentive.  Her point, no doubt, was to thrown stones at Warren for claiming to be a Native American, something Warren was being patently absurd in doing in the first place, but extreme claims from Warren seem to be her thing.  Being as its a storm on Twitter, it probably has already faded, but she should think twice before saying something like that again.

According to the Chicago Tribune Klobuchar is rising in the polls in Iowa.  The Democratic field is clearly shifting, if not actually getting smaller given that two have gotten out and two have gotten in, but it seems almost certain that Booker is out of the running and that Patrick and Bloomberg won't be successful in getting into it.  Given that, the candidates who will debate next time, Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, Steyer and Warren, with perhaps also Yang, are those who are going to keep on keeping on until mid race.  Steyer's campaign has a lot of money but is not likely to go anywhere, and Yang has a lot of enthusiasm and originality but is not likely to go anywhere. So the really serious contenders appear to be Biden, Buttigieg, Klobuchar, Sanders, and Warren.  The field has suddenly narrowed.

December 4, 2019

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Since typing the above out a couple of days ago I've now heard analysis on the element of race and the Democratic Party on multiple platforms, one that was recorded before I set out the above, but others after that.  It's interesting in part because I'm hearing my own analysis repeated back to me by pundits.

On that, I'm surprised that some pundits are surprised that black voters don't necessarily vote for a black candidate simply because the candidate is black.  I'm also surprised that some pundits are surprised that Hispanic voters don't vote for a black candidate on the basis that Hispanics are minorities (although my prediction is that their category as such will cease to be recognized within a generation as they go through the same process that the Italian and Irish "racial" minorities have in the past), and minorities "of color" will of course vote for a candidate of color, even if their ethnicity is considerably different in terms of heritage.

Some Democrats who were backing or running seem to have made those assumptions as well, and Corey Booker, who is of course still in the race, was loud in the press regarding Kamala Harris' departure on the issue, nearly claiming that black voters owed their votes to him or to Harris because they were black.  Of interest on Harris, I've since seen one post by an Indian American about how proud Harris made her, which brings up once again that while Harris campaigned as a black candidate, her claim to that status is a bit mixed as none of her ethnic heritage comported with the African American norm.  That shouldn't matter, but to some it seems to, and candidates themselves will seem to claim votes based on those claims.

Anyhow, most of the analysis is really close to what I already set out, with pundits rediscovering the really long held truths that: 1) African Americans place their votes with the candidate that they feel best realistically serves their interests, irrespective of that person's race; and 2) African American voters aren't necessarily as loyal to any political party as Democrats have tended to assume in recent years.

On the latter, one commentator, a liberal African American figure who appeared on Meet The Press went further and noted something that I've hinted at, but which he was much more blunt about.  Perhaps his status as an African American allowed him to take on a topic that others don't want to address as they don't want to tread the risky waters that accompany it, and I don't blame them. That had to deal with Buttigieg's almost total lack of support among black and Hispanic voters.

That commentator flat out brought up that Buttigieg has trouble with black voters, and Hispanic voters, as they are "conservative morally", by which he meant that the two demographics do not share the WASP acceptance of homosexual conduct as a moral nullity.  That fact has been a somewhat loudly whispered truth for awhile, but it probably does take a black liberal to openly state it.  He did, and then went on to state that the Republicans are missing a bet as they don't exploit the social conservatism of African Americans and Hispanics.

In stating that he's correct.  The GOP has not known how to address this in recent years and has basically done nothing much more than to note that the Democratic Party simply depends upon black voters without actually assisting them much.  The recent departure of Harris from the race may be a good example of that as Harris was really pronounced on traditional Democratic hard left issues, but none of those directly address black and Hispanic concerns and one of her open positions, her position in regards to abortion, runs directly contrary to a view held by large numbers of Hispanic voters and isn't really all that popular with black voters.  This tends to show that, as previously noted, black and Hispanic support of the Democrats has been for economic reasons and, in regards to Hispanics, because the GOP has been perceived as hostile to Hispanics.

In spite of all of that, the fact that things were beginning to change in this are should have been evident in the 2016 race.  During that race the GOP had two Hispanic contenders who remained in the running for a very long time and one black candidate who did fairly well early on.  Comparing that to the 2020 race, none of the Democratic minority candidates have done well at all.  The one who is likely to remain in the race the longest, Yang, is able to do so due to his unique positions and self funding, but whether fairly or not Asian Americans are regarded as having been more fully assimilated into the nation as a whole than other minorities.

At any rate, the fact that the Republicans did have serious minority candidates who didn't campaign on their ethnicity should be worrying to the Democrats as it signals something going on at the street level.  The GOP is beginning to have conservative black candidates at the state level, which means that the Democrats are now hemorrhaging some voters who had been in the GOP over social issues.  And the GOP has picked up one entire Hispanic demographic, Cuban Americans, and there are starting to be inroads into other Hispanic demographics. As the Hispanic economic situation improves the social issues will start to rise, and even such notable left wing Hispanic figures of the past have voiced some very conservative social views openly.  As Hispanics, moreover, begin to assimilate into Middle America, and they are doing so now, this will accelerate.

The irony this presents is that in this cycle the Democrats are leaping leftward, and they can probably at least safely do so as President Trump has the pretty united opposition of both African Americans and Hispanics.  But at the same time Democrats who for years and years have pointed out with glee that the GOP has a demographic problem are now pointing out that the Democratic Party also has a demographic problem.

December 6, 2019

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Yesterday Finland sat a new Prime Minister.

What, you may legitimately ask, does this have to do with the United States and its election?

Well, perhaps this.

All three of the contenders from Finland's major political parties for this position were under 35.  The government, formed by Social Democrat Sanna Marin, has five women at its head, as a coalition government, four of whom are under 35 years of age. Marin is 34.  She replaces outgoing Social Democrat Anitti Rinne who is 55.

The point?

Well the point isn't that I'm endorsing the Finnish Social Democrats, with whom I have a lot of disagreement.  The point isn't even that I'm endorsing any Finnish political party, all of whom I probably have a lot of disagreement with.  Indeed, Finland shares the Nordic peculiarity, even though the Finns aren't actually a Scandinavian people (save for the minority Swedish population) of seeming political goofiness in recent years.

Rather, I'm noting the stark contrast in ages that the leaders of some other democracies exhibit in contrast to ours.

Indeed, in the current election, as noted before, we're actually fielding potentially the absolute oldest field of candidates of all time.  Donald Trump is the oldest President in his first term ever.  If reelected he'll be the oldest President to be reelected and if he's defeated there's an outstanding chance that whoever replaces him, in the current slate, will then become the oldest President to have been elected to the office.

Prior to Donald Trump, no American President was elected to a first term who was in his  70s.  Now, three of the Democratic top contenders are in their 70s.  Bernie Sanders will actually be 79 years old by the election next year.  Trump will be 74.  Elizabeth Warren will be 71.

What does this argue or indicate?  Probably nothing much more than the first grasp of the Baby Boomer generation on the nation's politics and culture.  Of the nation's 45 presidents, only 11 have been over their 50s when they assumed the office. Granted, that's roughly 1/4, but it's also the case that some who  assumed the office in real times of crisis were much younger.  Franklin Roosevelt was 51.  Abraham Lincoln was 52.  George Washington was 57.

Is this significant?  At least in some senses, it must be.

December 10, 2019

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Bernie Sanders has reacted with outrage to Major League Baseball's proposal to cut 42 minor league teams.  Indeed, he wrote the commissioner of baseball about it and posted as much on his twitter feed.  On the latter, he took an economic, and social justice, point of view, stating:
This has nothing to do with what's good for baseball and everything to do with greed. 

It would destroy thousands of jobs and devastate local economies.
One of the teams slated for the axe, we'd note, is the Vermont Lake Monsters.

Champs, mascot of the Vermont Lake Monsters, a minor league team slated for removal by MLB.  From wikipedia commons and listed as public domain.

December 16, 2019


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The 2020 Election, Part 1

The 2020 Election, Part 2

The 2020 Election, Part 3