Tuesday, July 2, 2024

The 2024 Election, Part XX. The Debate Edition

 


June 27, 2024

So, tonight (9:00 p.m. Eastern), the two ancient contestants in what both parties insist is a "binary choice" square off in what will be the only debate of the 2024 Presidential Election.

Trump, who has a habit of going weirdly off script in meandering monologues, has been trying to downplay the results ahead of time, after having spent months claiming that Biden is cognitively impaired.  In reality, Biden's always made odd speech gaffs, but Trump, who in his younger days did not, now makes them frequently, suggesting that the impacts of age are catching up with him.  Both men are the same age chronologically, for all practical purposes, but Biden is obviously more physically fit than Trump, who doesn't believe in exercise.

It is, of course, not a binary contest.  You can vote for somebody else.

Do you intend to watch the debate?

So, who all do we have right now?

Presidential Election:

Democratic Ticket:  

Biden/Harris, incumbents.

Republican Ticket:  

Trump/Unknown.

American Solidarity Party:1   

Sonski/Onak

Libertarian Party:2

Oliver/terMaat

Reform Party:3

Robert F. Kennedy, Jr (an independent)/Shanahan4 

Green Party:5

Jill Stein/Unknown

Green Party of Alaska:6 

Sherman/BluBear

Constitution Party:7  

Terry/Broden

Constitution Party of Utah and Nevada: 

Skousen/Combs

Party for Socialism and Liberation:8

De la Cruz/Garcia

Approval Voting Party: 

Huber/Denault

Prohibition Party:9

Wood/Pietrowski

Independent:  

West/Abdullah

Quite a few third parties, we'd note.  Have you considered any of them?

Wyoming Senate Race:

Democratic Contest:

Scott Morrow.

GOP Contest:

John Barrasso, incumbent

Reid Rasner

John Hotz.

Wyoming House Race:

Democratic Contest:

Kyle Cameron

GOP Contest:

Harriet Hageman, incumbent.

Steve Helling

Constitution Party:  

Jeff Haggit

June 28, 2024

I only watched about 30 minutes of it and could no longer stand it.

There's really no denying at this point that Biden's age makes him unfit to be President.  It's not that Trump made sense, Trump's performance demonstrated that he's an unmitigated liar and constitutionally unfit for office.

Rather, the supposed binary system that Americans have bought off on means that, for most people, the choice, because they refuse to imagine another one, will between somebody whose age has caught up with him vs. somebody who doesn't have a single positive political attribute and who is a danger to democracy.

Some, like Nate Silver, and he's far from being alone, are calling for Biden to drop out of the race.  If he does not, it will be to his everlasting shame.  The real question is not if he should drop out, but when he should drop out.

And who, in that case, might replace him.

Joe Manchin of West Virginia.  A possibility?

The other, and vital question, is how American democracy reached this state.  These two choices are the worst in American history and most people don't want them (which again means, they shouldn't vote for either of them).  If the country survives this election, something has to change, beyond that which will change simply because of who is elected.   The system is not functioning to produce two such abysmal choices.

Almost missed, so far, as a Wyoming story, but sort of an interesting aspect of the warp and woof of our times, a Hageman staffer has been forced to resign, in this case, an intern.

A news story by "The Laramie Reporter" reveals that the intern had connections, at least in the form of social media likes, with the extreme right. The same figure has been a rising, albeit young, figure in the populist far right at UW and is on the student senate.

The entire matter is interesting in that it reveals the extent to which populism in the US right now trends highly towards the anti-democratic. The intern was found to have liked racist posts on social media, and to also have outright stated his opposition to democracy at least once.  He also seems to have followed Francoist, which is stunningly bizarre.  This seems to have come out of the same figure being a Christian Nationalist, which shows a really dark side of the National Conservative movement, but perhaps one that is closer to the surface than many people care to admit.

He lost his position, or resigned, the very day the blog broke the story.

June 29, 2024

The New York Times.

The Times is absolutely correct, which doesn't mean it will occur.  The stunning level of refusal to accept reality will keep it from occurring.

Establishment Democrats like Robert Reich who ignored the repeated calls for Biden not to run in the first place failed to address the deer in the headlights appearance of Biden and the obvious age related mental decline following the debate (Reich may be addressing it in his entry of today).  "It's only one bad day" seems to be the theme, with those commenters forgetting the truism expressed by Janis Joplin "that it's all only one f***** day man".  

The bolt is shot.  Some Democrats who were to vote for Biden will now not vote at all, or go to third parties.  Republicans on the fence will in fact fold back into Trump.  Wavering independents will fall towards him, or fall towards not voting at all.

The reality is that Biden needs to step aside in the race. The other reality is, he won't.

Biden will keep running, and Trump will win in the fall.

Footnotes:

1. The American Solidarity Party is a Christian Democratic party that's centrist in nature, which should not be confused with Christian Nationalism, which it would generally be in opposition to.

2.  For some time the third-largest party in the US, the Libertarian Party has seemingly fallen into hard times as libertarian ideas have been co opted by some elements of the Republican Party, which ironically in its populist mode of present, it's also radically opposed to, but doesn't realize it.

3.  A number of parties have had the "reform" label for at least a couple of decades. This party is generally centrist in nature.

4.  Kennedy has the Reform Party's nomination, but isn't running from it.  He's an independent.

5. The environmental party.

6. I have no idea why Alaska's Green Party has separated from the main Green Party, but it certainly has no chance of electing a President.

7.  The Constitution Party is a populist party and is where the "Freedom Caucus" people actually belong.

8.  A radical left wing party.

9.  A really old party, it was at one time a significant one but has waned since the repeal of prohibition.

June 30, 2024

Predictably, there's a lot of Democratic true believer "nothing to see here" type of comments regarding President Biden and the recent debates, maintaining nothing whatsoever will happen in regard to his poor performance.

Not likely.

I'm reminded of Monty Python's classic scene of King Arthur confronting the Black Knight.

"Just a flesh wound".

July 2, 2024

The post election reaction on the Democratic side has been interesting, and unfortunately a bit predictable.

The closer a commenter is to the Biden Presidency, either officially or emotionally, the more likely the comments are that the debate just didn't matter.

It did.

As things distance out, that is recognized.  The New York Times, Maureen Doud, The Atlanta Journal Constitution, and others, have all asked Biden to drop out.  He should, but the voices he's now hearing, from his family, and from inside Democrats, are urging him to stay in the race. Those are the voices that he's going to listen to.

And that's what will reelect Donald Trump in the Fall.

It's not too late to pick a new Democrat.  It's not the case that only Joe Biden can beat Trump.  Indeed, people thought Biden was going to be a one-term President in the first place, and didn't want him to run again.  Nobody likes the thought of Harris being the President when Biden dies.

Of course, what's going on is emblematic of the Democratic Party itself.  It's not true that "only Biden" can beat Trump, but probably only Biden can embrace the full slate of the Democratic left's agenda, somewhat, and still have a chance at beating Trump. Any other Democrat who had a chance would have to run much more from the center.  Ironically, that would also mean that such a candidate would have a much better chance of winning overall.  But the far left of the Democratic Party, like the far right of the Republican Party, is no compromise in nature.

Time remains, but it won't be taken advantage of.  The Democratic Party will simply hand the election to Trump, and more than that, may very well hand the Senate to the GOP as well.

Cont:

A party of Democratic governors is going to meet with Biden regarding his staying in the race, or gettin out.

Congressman Lloyd Doggett has called for him to get out.

Manchin was going to announce that he wanted Biden to back out on one of the Sunday news shows, but was talked out of it.

Democrats who are begging to realize that he might get out, are rallying around the worst possible option for his replacement, Kamala Harris.

Related threads:

Blog Mirror: Joe Biden should drop out.

Last prior edition:

The 2024 Election, Part XIX. The Clerks say "M'eh" edition.

Somehow, we sort of ended up back here.

Blog Mirror: Court Expands Presidential Immunity, Remands January 6 Case Against Trump

 

Court Expands Presidential Immunity, Remands January 6 Case Against Trump

Sunday, July 2, 1944. Plots in motion and the SS Jean Nicolet

The I-8 sank the SS Jean Nicolet, a liberty ship, and then engaged in what can only be the torture and murder of its survivors.  The atrocities were interrupted by Allied aircraft, allowing some men to survive as the I 8 dived away.

The I-8 had been involved in a prior atrocity.  It would be sunk near the end of the war.

Not too surprisingly, Gerd von Rundstedt was relieved of command and replaced by Günther von Kluge as Oberbefehlshaber West . The day prior, von Rundstedt had expressed the situation in the war as hopeless.   Additionally, on this day, he sought permission from Hitler to withdraw from the present German lines.

It wasn't the first time he'd been relieved, and he would be brought back.

The replacement would be a bit ironic in that von Kluge participated in the July 20 plot.

Concerning that, the prior day, July 1, Claus von Stauffenberg was appointed Chief of Staff to General Fromm at the Reserve Army headquarters.  The appointment meant that he would be in close proximity to Hitler frequently.

The British 8th Army captured Foiano, Italy.

U.S. and Australian troops landed on Numfoor Island, New Guinea.

The U-543 was sunk off of Tenerife by aircraft.

An interesting issue of Sarah Sundin's blog:

Today in World War II History—July 2, 1944

Fighting continued on Saipan, with the Japanese withdrawing to their last defensive line.


US ace and former member of the RCAF Ralph K. Hofer was killed in action over Budapest.

Last edition:

Saturday, July 1, 1944. Bretton Woods.

Labels: 

Thursday, July 2, 1914. The military recommendation.

The German military recommends to Kaiser Wilhelm II that Austro Hungaria attack Serbia as soon as possible, as Germany could mobilize quicker than Russia or France.

It is announced that Kaiser Wilhelm will not attend Ferdinand's funeral.  He had planned to go and use the occasion as an informal peace conference, but Austro Hungaria had disinvited much foreign presence.

Bosnia and Herzegovina were placed under martial law.

Last edition:

Wednesday, July 1, 1914. Fighting assurances.

Friday, July 2, 1909. The 16th Amendment passes Congress

Congress passed the 16th Amendment allowing for an income tax, and it was sent to the states for ratification.

Fritz Haber and his assistant, Robert Le Rossignol, first demonstrated a nitrogen fixation process for synthesizing ammonia from hydrogen and nitrogen, a process used for nitrate fertilizer.

Last edition:

Monday, June 28, 1909. Al fresco.

Thursday, July 2, 1874. The Black Hills Expedition Departs


Today In Wyoming's History: July 2:  1874  7th Cavalry left Ft. Abraham Lincoln to scout the Black Hills.

The 7th Cavalry, with a number of native scouts, left Ft. Abraham Lincoln bound for the Black Hills in what is recalled as the Black Hills Expedition.

The expedition was economic in part, in that it was to look for gold in the Black Hills, and military in part, in that it was to look for suitable fort locations.  Its organization was as follows:

The table of organization for the 7th Cavalry for the Black Hills Expedition of 1874 was as follows.[15]

Field and staff officers:

Lt. Colonel George Armstrong Custer, 7th Cavalry.

Lt. Colonel Frederick D. Grant, 4th Cavalry and acting aide

Major George A. Forsyth, 9th Cavalry commander

First Lieutenant James Calhoun, 7th Cavalry adjutant

First Lieutenant Algernon E. Smith, quartermaster

Second Lieutenant George D. Wallace, commander of Indian scouts

Cavalry companies

Company A - Captain Myles Moylan and Second Lieutenant Charles Varnum

Company B - First Lieutenant Benjamin H. Hodgson

Company C - Captain Verling Hart and Second Lieutenant Henry M. Harrington

Company E - First Lieutenant Thomas M. McDougall

Company F - Captain George W. Yates

Company G - First Lieutenant Donald McIntosh

Company H - Captain Frederick W. Benteen and First Lieutenant Francis M. Gibson

Company K - Captain Owen Hale and First Lieutenant Edward S. Godfrey

Company L - First Lieutenant Thomas W. Custer

Company M - Captain Thomas French and First Lieutenant Edward Gustave Mathey

Medical staff

Dr. John W. Williams, chief medical officer

Dr. S. J. Allen, Jr. assistant surgeon

Dr. A. C. Bergen, assistant surgeon

Engineering

Captain William Ludlow, chief engineer

W. H. Wood, civilian assistant

Mining detachment

Horatio Nelson Ross

William McKay

Scientist

George Bird Grinnell

Newton Horace Winchell

A. B. Donaldson

Luther North

Photographer

William H. Illingworth

Correspondents

William E. Curtis, Chicago Inter-Ocean

Samuel J. Barrows, New York Tribune

Sygurd Wiśniowski, New Ulm Herald

Nathan H. Knappen, Bismarck Tribune

Last edition:

Saturday, June 27, 1874. The Second Battle of Adobe Walls

Monday, July 1, 2024

"Conclusive and preclusive."

We thus conclude that the President is absolutely immune from criminal prosecution for conduct within his exclusive sphere of constitutional authority. 

But of course not all of the President’s official acts fall within his “conclusive and preclusive” authority. 

Trump v. United States, which was just issued. 

Blog Mirror: July 1, 2024 – Virginia Becomes 12th State in US and First in South to End Child Marriage

 

July 1, 2024 – Virginia Becomes 12th State in US and First in South to End Child Marriage

Saturday, July 1, 1944. Bretton Woods.

Morgenthau opening conference.

Delegates from forty-four nations met at the secluded Mount Washington Hotel in Bretton Woods, New Hampshire to participate in the Bretton Woods Conference. The conference met to establish the post-war economic order and was one of the most significant events of the 20th Century.

Henry Morgenthau was the chief U.S. delegate to the conference, and was rapidly elected its presiding officer.  Harry Dexter White, who was a Soviet spy, was the chief US delegate in fact and a major factor in the resulting plans.

The II SS Panzer Corps attacked British positions around Caen but was repulsed.  Gerd von Rundstedt phoned Berlin to report the failure to which Chief of Staff Wilhelm Keitel purportedly asked, "What shall we do?", to which Rundstedt replied, "Make peace, you fools! What else can you do?"

The U.S. 133d Infantry Regiment captured Cicina, Italy.

The Red Army took Borisov.

U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt signed the Public Health Service Act and the Renunciation Act of 1944.  The latter allowed people physically present in the U.S. to renounce citizenship when the country was at war.  It required an application to the Attorney General of the United States in order to do so.

The act sought to have Japanese Americans do that very thing, sot hey could later be deported to Japan.  A total of 5,589 American citizens availed themselves of the act, 5,461 coming from the Tule Lake Segregation Center.  Many came to regret their decision, and some of the renunciations were reversed.

Internees at Tule Lake.

Formation of the anti-Soviet Lithuanian Partisans occured.

Partisans in 1947.

They'd fight on after World War Two.

Anti Soviet Estonian Forest Brothers re formed on the same day.

Last edition:

Tuesday, July 1, 1924. Airmail.



Regular U.S airmail commenced with a fully established Transcontinental Airway System at New York City; Bellefonte, Pennsylvania; Cleveland and Bryan, Ohio; Chicago; Iowa City; Omaha and North Platte, Nebraska; Cheyenne, Rawlins and Rock Springs, Wyoming; Salt Lake City; Elko and Reno; and San Francisco.

President Coolidge held a press conference:

Press Conference, July 1, 1924

Japan held a national day of protest over the new US immigration act.

Last edition:

Monday, June 30, 1924. Teapot Grand Jury comes in.

Wednesday, July 1, 1914. Fighting assurances.

Germany assured Austro Hungaria that it would support it in the event of war with Serbia.

Russian officials met and advised Serbian ones in Belgrade.

The Royal Naval Air Service was established.

The U.S. Navy established the Office of Naval Aeronautics.

Last edition:

Tuesday, June 30, 1914. Fighting in Morocco, questions in Europe.

Saturday, July 1, 1899. "Birth" of Indiana Jones.

According to George Lucas, this is the birthdate for his fictional character, Henry Walton "Indiana" Jones, Jr.

Last edition:

Friday, June 30, 1899. Safe passage for Spanish troops at Baler.

2024 Elections In Other Countries.

Taiwan


Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party returned an historic third Presidential victory in a blow to the People's Republic of China.

The party regards Taiwan as de facto independent, which it should be.  President Biden, following the election, stated the US didn't support Taiwanese independence, which it very much should.

January 14, 2024.

Hungary


The President of Hungary, Katalin Novák, age 46, has resigned due to a scandal involving the pardoning of an accomplice in a child sexual abuse case.

February 11, 2024.

Ireland


I had a post on the Irish referendum to amend its constitution, and was frankly way off 

Blog Mirror: On marriage, family, and the Irish constitutional referendum.

The referendum failed massively.  Actually two proposals, the one that sought to expand the definition of family from a relationship founded on marriage to include other durable relationships, failed 67.7% to 32.3%.  The one to replace language surrounding a woman's duties in the home with a clause recognizing the role of family members in the provision of care was rejected 73.9% to 26.1%.

This deserves its own thread.

March 10, 2014

Russia


Putin.  Gee, what a surprise.

March 18, 2024.

South Africa.


The ANC lost the majority of parliamentary seats so, if it is to stay in power, it needs to form a coalition with minority parties.

Mexico


Claudia Sheinbaum won the presidential election, becoming the countries first woman elected to this office.

She is a protégé of the incumbent populist Manuel López Obrador and served as his pro oil environmental minister, in spite of having a degree in the field.  Mexican presidents may only serve one six year term.

June 3, 2024

European Union


Far right parties gained overall in EU parliamentary elections over the weekend, although in Scandinavia, the far left did.  President Macron dissolved the French parliament as a result, and France will now have elections.  Poland's governing conservative party came out on top for that country, edging out the further right wing party that had governed Poland before it came to power last year.

June 10, 2024

France


In round one of a snap French election, the far right Le Pen RN bloc took 33.15% of the vote, the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition came second with 27.99% and President Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble alliance took 20.76%.  Voting concludes next week, but it's clear the far right is going to take the most votes, but not enough to form a non coalition government.

And so the far right, globally, continues its rise.

July 1, 2024.

Blog Mirror: What Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo Means for the Future of Chevron Deference


What Loper Bright Enterprises v. Raimondo Means for the Future of Chevron Deference

Monday at the Bar: The Tiresome Claim that Pro-Life Legal Measures Violate the Establishment Clause

The Tiresome Claim that Pro-Life Legal Measures Violate the Establishment Clause