The best posts of the week of December 31, 2023.
Saturday, January 6, 2024
Wild Cats of Hawaii.
Wild Cats of Hawaii.
They are feral, of course, not really wild, and not native to Hawaii at all.
Sunday, January 6, 1974. Messing with the time.
In a bizarre response to the ongoing oil crisis, the U.S. began a trial of year around daylight savings time.
I recall it well, as when I walked to grade school in the morning, it was pretty dark. We still walked, however.
Thursday, January 6, 1944. Doolittle takes command of the 8th Air Force.
Jimmy Doolittle.
Jimmy Doolittle took command of the 8th Air Force. He'd change escort tactics soon thereafter, allowing escort fighters to fly far ahead of bomber formations to freely engage staged German fighters.
The Red Army captured Rokitno in pre-war Poland. The small city is in Ukraine today.
A joint statement by the RAF and the USAAF disclosed that the US and UK were developing jet aircraft.
Of course, so was nearly everyone else. The Germans, for instance, were certainly developing jet combat aircraft and the Japanese, by way of a request of the Japanese Imperial Navy following its representatives having witnessed a ME 262 test flight in 1942, were as well.
Sunday, January 6, 1924. Frigid weather and Rebel offensives.
A cold wave was causing grief, and rebels were trying to take the offensive in Mexico.
A story that would repeat many times in Casper was playing out, with oil companies moving their headquarters from Casper to Denver. By 2000 it had pretty much set in that headquarters were no longer in Wyoming, with Marathon being perhaps the last major producer to relocate. Denver remains a major oil headquarters city, but Houston has eclipsed it. Presently, all that really remains of the major petroleum headquarters that were once in Casper are three office buildings, The Ohio Building, the Pan American Building and the Consolidated Royalty Building.
Atatürk survived a bomb attack on his home by an uninvited visitor which did, however, injury his wife Latife Uşşaki.
The Catholic Church in France was allowed to reoccupy former Church property under the "diocesan associations" system.
On the same day, the flood of the Seine peaked at over 7 meters.
Southern Rockies Nature Blog: Wolves Now Add to the 'Colorado Experience'
Southern Rockies Nature Blog: Wolves Now Add to the 'Colorado Experience': A wolf who walked in from Wyoming caught on a scout camera in North Park in March 2023 ( Don Gittleson via AP). Dad was still alive when the...
Friday, January 5, 2024
Wednesday, January 5, 1944. Trying to remind people that the war in Europe started with the rights of Poland. . .
Men of B Btry., 163rd AAA Bn., grouped around the barrel of their 90mm AA gun named "Tojo Special", Goodenough Island, New Guinea.
The Polish Government In Exile issued a statement declaring itself to be "the only and legal steward and spokesman of the Polish Nation". It further called and called for the Soviet Union to respect the rights and interests of Poland, a rapid reestablishment of a Polish republic and agreement between itself and the Soviet Union which would allow for Soviet coordination with the Polish Home Army.
In other words, it saw the handwriting of betrayal on the wall and was desperately trying to do what it could to prevent it.
Sailors of the USS Hoggatt Bay, CVE 75, eat chose at battle stations, January 5, 1944.
The Red Army captured Berdychiv, Ukraine, a city which was fought over by the Poles, Ukrainians and Soviets after World War One and which was rocketed in the ongoing Russo Ukrainian War. Prior to World War Two it had a major Jewish population.
German survivors of the SS Weserland, sunk on January 5, 1944, are shown below, disembarking to imprisonment.
Saturday, January 5, 1924. Ironic?
Sounding like a story line out of an Alanis Morissette song, Eleftherios Venizelos, a Greek hero, was elected as the Speaker of the Hellenic Parliament by his colleagues only to go on and have a heart attack that day during the parliamentary session. He'd serve in the position for only six days, but would live until 1936.
Walter P. Chrysler introduced his first car, the Chrysler Six Model B-70.
Celia Cooney, age 19, commenced her criminal career with the robbery of the Thomas Ralston Grocery store in Brooklyn. Her husband, Ed Cooney, drove the getaway car.
Their criminal career ended in April when they were caught. Ed Cooney lost an arm due to an injury while in prison and recovered $12,000 against the State of New York in 1931 as a result. The same year they were released. He died in 1936 of tuberculosis, and she remarried in 1943. She passed away in 1992.
The Agrarian's Lament: Southern Rockies Nature Blog: The Man Who Is Buyin...
The Agrarian's Lament: Southern Rockies Nature Blog: The Man Who Is Buyin...: Southern Rockies Nature Blog: The Man Who Is Buying the Colorado Prairie : Click to enlarge (Source: Bloomberg) Stefan Soloviev is only the ...
Wyoming Catholic Cowboys - raw and real: Ranch Sign
Wyoming Catholic Cowboys - raw and real: Ranch Sign: Some projects are just funner than others, like building a ranch sign to hang over our new set of corrals. Combine that with some Christmas ...
Thursday, January 4, 2024
Lex Anteinternet: The Agonizing Advent of 2023.* Fiducia Supplicans...Press release concerning the reception of Fiducia supplicans.
Lex Anteinternet: The Agonizing Advent of 2023.* Fiducia Supplicans...: The Conversion of St. Paul. St. Paul said in his letter to the Corinthians: " Ἢ οὐκ οἴδατε ὅτι ἄδικοι βασιλείαν Θεοῦ οὐ κληρονομήσουσι...
Advent is over, but the story lives on.
Three weeks ago, the Vatican’s Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith (DDF) announced that there would be no more detailed explanations of the sort of blessings suggested in Fiducia Supplicans. Well, the DDF has now issued something and it does provide detailed explanations. Indeed, it's a major clarification making it plain that any blessing need be both spontaneous, and quite limited, even providing an example.
The document states:
Dicastery for the Doctrine of the FaithPress release concerning the reception of Fiducia supplicans4 January 2024We are writing this Press Release to help clarify the reception of Fiducia supplicans, while recommending at the same time a full and calm reading of the Declaration so as to better understand its meaning and purpose.1. DoctrineThe understandable statements of some Episcopal Conferences regarding the document Fiducia supplicans have the value of highlighting the need for a more extended period of pastoral reflection. What is expressed by these Episcopal Conferences cannot be interpreted as doctrinal opposition, because the document is clear and definitive about marriage and sexuality. There are several indisputable phrases in the Declaration that leave this in no doubt:«This Declaration remains firm on the traditional doctrine of the Church about marriage, not allowing any type of liturgical rite or blessing similar to a liturgical rite that can create confusion». One acts in these situations of couples in irregular situations «without officially validating their status or changing in any way the Church’s perennial teaching on marriage» (Presentation).«Therefore, rites and prayers that could create confusion between what constitutes marriage – which is the “exclusive, stable, and indissoluble union between a man and a woman, naturally open to the generation of children” – and what contradicts it are inadmissible. This conviction is grounded in the perennial Catholic doctrine of marriage; it is only in this context that sexual relations find their natural, proper, and fully human meaning. The Church’s doctrine on this point remains firm» (4).«Such is also the meaning of the Responsum of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith, which states that the Church does not have the power to impart blessings on unions of persons of the same sex» (5).«For this reason, since the Church has always considered only those sexual relations that are lived out within marriage to be morally licit, the Church does not have the power to confer its liturgical blessing when that would somehow offer a form of moral legitimacy to a union that presumes to be a marriage or to an extra-marital sexual practice» (11).Evidently, there is no room to distance ourselves doctrinally from this Declaration or to consider it heretical, contrary to the Tradition of the Church or blasphemous.2. Practical receptionSome Bishops, however, express themselves in particular regarding a practical aspect: the possible blessings of couples in irregular situations. The Declaration contains a proposal for short and simple pastoral blessings (neither liturgical nor ritualised) of couples in irregular situations (but not of their unions), underlining that these are blessings without a liturgical format which neither approve nor justify the situation in which these people find themselves.Documents of the Dicastery for the Doctrine of the Faith such as Fiducia supplicans, in their practical aspects, may require more or less time for their application depending on local contexts and the discernment of each diocesan Bishop with his Diocese. In some places no difficulties arise for their immediate application, while in others it will be necessary not to introduce them, while taking the time necessary for reading and interpretation.Some Bishops, for example, have established that each priest must carry out the work of discernment and that he may, however, perform these blessings only in private. None of this is problematic if it is expressed with due respect for a text signed and approved by the Supreme Pontiff himself, while attempting in some way to accommodate the reflection contained in it.Each local Bishop, by virtue of his own ministry, always has the power of discernment in loco, that is, in that concrete place that he knows better than others precisely because it is his own flock. Prudence and attention to the ecclesial context and to the local culture could allow for different methods of application, but not a total or definitive denial of this path that is proposed to priests.3. The delicate situation of some countriesThe cases of some Episcopal Conferences must be understood in their contexts. In several countries there are strong cultural and even legal issues that require time and pastoral strategies that go beyond the short term.If there are laws that condemn the mere act of declaring oneself as a homosexual with prison and in some cases with torture and even death, it goes without saying that a blessing would be imprudent. It is clear that the Bishops do not wish to expose homosexual persons to violence. It remains vital that these Episcopal Conferences do not support a doctrine different from that of the Declaration signed by the Pope, given that it is perennial doctrine, but rather that they recommend the need for study and discernment so as to act with pastoral prudence in such a context.In truth, there are not a few countries that, to varying degrees, condemn, prohibit and criminalize homosexuality. In these cases, apart from the question of blessings, there exists a great and wide-ranging pastoral responsibility that includes training, the defense of human dignity, the teaching of the Social Doctrine of the Church and various strategies that do not admit of a rushed response.4. The real novelty of the documentThe real novelty of this Declaration, the one that requires a generous effort of reception and from which no one should declare themselves excluded, is not the possibility of blessing couples in irregular situations. It is the invitation to distinguish between two different forms of blessings: “liturgical or ritualized” and “spontaneous or pastoral”. The Presentation clearly explains that «the value of this document […] is that it offers a specific and innovative contribution to the pastoral meaning of blessings, permitting a broadening and enrichment of the classical understanding of blessings, which is closely linked to a liturgical perspective». This «theological reflection, based on the pastoral vision of Pope Francis, implies a real development from what has been said about blessings in the Magisterium and the official texts of the Church».In the background is found the positive evaluation of “popular pastoral care” which appears in many of the Holy Father’s texts. In this context, the Holy Father invites us to value the simple faith of the People of God who, even in the midst of their sins, emerge from their everyday lives and open their hearts to ask for God’s help.For this reason, rather than the blessing of couples in irregular unions, the text of the Dicastery has adopted the other profile of a “Declaration”, which is much more than a responsum or a letter. The central theme, which invites us especially to a deeper pastoral practice which enriches our pastoral praxis, is to have a broader understanding of blessings and of the proposal that these pastoral blessings, which do not require the same conditions as blessings in a liturgical or ritual context, flourish. Consequently, leaving polemics aside, the text requires an effort to reflect serenely, with the heart of shepherds, free from all ideology.Although some Bishops consider it prudent not to impart these blessings for the moment, we all need to grow equally in the conviction that: non-ritualized blessings are not a consecration of the person nor of the couple who receives them, they are not a justification of all their actions, and they are not an endorsement of the life that they lead. When the Pope asked us to grow in a broader understanding of pastoral blessings, he proposed that we think of a way of blessing that does not require the placing of so many conditions to carry out this simple gesture of pastoral closeness, which is a means of promoting openness to God in the midst of the most diverse circumstances.5. How do these “pastoral blessings” present themselves in concrete terms?To be clearly distinguished from liturgical or ritualized blessings, “pastoral blessings” must above all be very short (see n. 38). These are blessings lasting a few seconds, without an approved ritual and without a book of blessings. If two people approach together to seek the blessing, one simply asks the Lord for peace, health and other good things for these two people who request it. At the same time, one asks that they may live the Gospel of Christ in full fidelity and so that the Holy Spirit can free these two people from everything that does not correspond to his divine will and from everything that requires purification.This non-ritualized form of blessing, with the simplicity and brevity of its form, does not intend to justify anything that is not morally acceptable. Obviously it is not a marriage, but equally it is not an “approval” or ratification of anything either. It is solely the response of a pastor towards two persons who ask for God’s help. Therefore, in this case, the pastor does not impose conditions and does not enquire about the intimate lives of these people.Since some have raised the question of what these blessings might look like, let us look at a concrete example: let us imagine that among a large number making a pilgrimage a couple of divorced people, now in a new union, say to the priest: “Please give us a blessing, we cannot find work, he is very ill, we do not have a home and life is becoming very difficult: may God help us!”.In this case, the priest can recite a simple prayer like this: “Lord, look at these children of yours, grant them health, work, peace and mutual help. Free them from everything that contradicts your Gospel and allow them to live according to your will. Amen”. Then it concludes with the sign of the cross on each of the two persons.We are talking about something that lasts about 10 or 15 seconds. Does it make sense to deny these kinds of blessings to these two people who ask for them? Is it not more appropriate to support their faith, whether it be small or great, to assist them in their weaknesses with a divine blessing, and to channel that openness to transcendence which could lead them to be more faithful to the Gospel?In order to avoid any doubt, the Declaration adds that, when the blessing is requested by a couple in an irregular situation, «even though it is expressed outside the rites prescribed by the liturgical books, this blessing should never be imparted in concurrence with the ceremonies of a civil union, and not even in connection with them. Nor can it be performed with any clothing, gestures, or words that are proper to a wedding. The same applies when the blessing is requested by a same-sex couple» (n. 39). It remains clear, therefore, that the blessing must not take place in a prominent place within a sacred building, or in front of an altar, as this also would create confusion.For this reason, every Bishop in his Diocese is authorized by the Declaration Fiducia supplicans to make this type of simple blessing available, bearing in mind the need for prudence and care, but in no way is he authorized to propose or make blessings available that may resemble a liturgical rite.6. CatechesisIn some places, perhaps, some catechesis will be necessary that can help everyone to understand that these types of blessings are not an endorsement of the life led by those who request them. Even less are they an absolution, as these gestures are far from being a sacrament or a rite. They are simple expressions of pastoral closeness that do not impose the same requirements as a sacrament or a formal rite. We will all have to become accustomed to accepting the fact that, if a priest gives this type of simple blessings, he is not a heretic, he is not ratifying anything nor is he denying Catholic doctrine.We can help God’s People to discover that these kinds of blessings are just simple pastoral channels that help people give expression to their faith, even if they are great sinners. For this reason, in giving a blessing to two people who come together to ask for it spontaneously, we are not consecrating them nor are we congratulating them nor indeed are we approving that type of union. In reality the same happens when individuals are blessed, as the individual who asks for a blessing – not absolution – could be a great sinner, but this does not mean we deny him this paternal gesture in the midst of his struggle to survive.If this is clarified as a result of good catechesis, we can free ourselves from the fear that these blessings of ours may express something inadequate. We can be freer and perhaps closer and more fruitful ministers, with a ministry that is full of gestures of fatherhood and hospitality, without fear of being misunderstood.We ask the newly-born Lord to shower a generous and gracious blessing upon everyone so that we can live a holy and happy 2024.Víctor Manuel Card. FernándezPrefectMons. Armando MatteoSecretary for the Doctrinal Section
This should eliminate the need for large groups of Bishops to react, as they have felt in some regions they need to. African Bishops, for example, would not really need to formulate a response. Having said that, however, once the ball begins to roll, it's hard to stop.
Also clear, individual Catholic clerics who were creeping up on, or even over, blessing unions or appearing to do so now have to stop. We should not, for examples, be seeing Fr. James Martin, back in the New York Times. Indeed, unless a Times photographer just hangs around a church or is tipped off that somebody will be approaching Priest for an informal, and very short, blessing, there shouldn't be any Press photos at all. Priests being besieged with "can we schedule a blessing" should not be relieved of that burden as well.
And the German Church, it would seem, is left with the decision to comport or go into schism.
Friday, January 4, 1974. Acknowledging war.
Today In Wyoming's History: January 4: 1974, South Vietnam officially announces that, in light of ongoing communist attacks, the war in South Vietnam has restarted.
President Nixon refused to had over subpoenaed tapes to the Watergate Committee.
Tuesday, January 4, 1944. Crossing the Polish Frontier.
Pvt. George McLean of Jamaica, Long Island, foreground and in the rear L to R: Pvt. Larry Leonetti, N.Y.C., and Pfc. Dominic Recentio of Philadelphia manning a water cooled .50 Browning M2 on New Britain, January 4, 1944.
Today in World War II History—January 4, 1944: 80 Years Ago—Jan. 4, 1944: Church authorities at the Abbey of Monte Cassino in Italy give the Luftwaffe permission to remove artwork to Germany.
Sarah Sundin.
The move was taken to attempt to protect it from destruction.
Sundin also notes that the Italian Social Republic seized Jewish assets and restricted the Jewish ownership of property.
The Red Army took Bila Tserkva and further pushed the German Army Group South beyeond the pre war Polish border at Sarny. It also took Kaluga, southwest of Moscow.
German radio announced a decree to mobilize school children for war purposes.
At that point, the German people really should have realized the war was irrevocably lost and have risen up against their government.
The Polish Home Army commenced Operation Tempest, a series of local uprising that would go on for a year.
Carrier born U.S. aircraft struck Kavieng on New Ireland, damaging the destroyer Fumitsuki.
Argentina recognized Bolivia's military government.
The Roosevelt's deeded their Hyde Park house to the U.S. Government.
Jean Tatlock, American psychiatrist, and a Communist who wrote for the Western Worker, was found dead of suicide. He burned her correspondence prior to calling the authorities.
She is best remembered for having been a romantic interest of J. Robert Oppenheimer.
Friday, January 24, 1924. Claiming control of the oilfields.
De la Huerta's confederates claimed control of Mexico's oil.
The German government issued the Emminger Reform abolishing juries in favor of a mixed system of professional and lay judges as a cost savings measure. Lay judges were in turn abolished by the Third Reich on September 1, 1939.
The jury system is uncommon in continental Europe, in any event. It was briefly restored in Germany between 1948 and 1950, but upon formation of the Federal Republic of Germany it was again removed save for Bavaria, which adopted the system as it existed prior to this date.
Conclusions were being drawn about French inflation.
The Ongoing 2023 Legislative Session of Other States.
How we all imagine legislatures once were. . . because they didn't have the opportunity to put every dumb thought they had out on Twitter.
At least Wyoming can be thankful that its citizen legislature can't afford to be in ongoing session.
May 21, 2023
Minnesota, deciding that Americans aren't stupid enough, and don't already have enough in the way of options to make themselves even stupider, voted to legalize marijuana.
It also passed a new gun measure.
June 3, 2023
Connecticut banned marriages under 18 with no exceptions.
September 7, 2023
California has banned caste based discrimination, which is something prevalent in the Indian culture. The Governor has not indicated if he will sign the act.
While I agree with the measure, this is frankly an example of a Western culture declaring its values to be superior to that of an Asian one. Western cultures have a Christianity based concept that all people are equal. Lots of cultures hold the polar opposite.
Massachusetts has passed funding for universal "free" school lunches.
Of course, they aren't free, they're government funded. And the government doesn't make an income through production, so they're tax funded. This means they're taxpayer funded. Massachusetts has ain income tax, so this means that Massachusetts is separating cash from the wallets of everyone in the state in order to buy lunches for school kids, irrespective of parental obligations to pay to feed their kids.
October 3, 2023
Nebraska is requiring transgender youth seeking "gender-affirming care", the Orwellian term for gender mutilation, to wait seven days to start puberty-blocking medications or hormone treatments under emergency regulations as well as to receive at least 40 hours of “gender-identity-focused” therapy This followed a Nebraska law that took effect on Sunday which bans "gender affirming" surgical mutilation for those under 19.
Nebraska, intentionally or not, is following a global trend here which is limiting such procedures in minors, with the data showing its frequently regretted.
October 8, 2023
California has put into effect a law requiring requires public and private US businesses with revenues greater than $1 billion operating in California to report their emissions comprehensively.
January 4, 2024
Passed last year, some new state laws:
- A new Minnesota law allows authorities to ask courts for “extreme risk protection orders” to temporarily take guns from people deemed to be an imminent threat to others or themselves.
- Colorado has banned "ghost guns"
- A Connecticut law requires online dating operators to adopt policies for handling harassment reports.
- A North Carolina law requires pornographic website operators to confirm viewers are at least 18 years old by using a commercially available database. Parents can sue for failure to comply with the law.
- A new Illinois law allows lawsuits by victims of deepfake pornography,
- Bans on chemical gender mutilation of minors take effect in Idaho, Louisiana and West Virginia.
- A new law in Hawaii requires new marriage certificates to be issued to people who request to change how their sex is listed.
- In Colorado, new buildings wholly or partly owned by government entities are now required to have on every floor where there are public restrooms at least one that does not specify the gender of the users.
- A new Indiana law makes it easier for parents and others to challenge books in school libraries.
- A new Illinois law blocks state funding for public libraries that ban or restrict books.
- Kansas dropped the sales tax on groceries drops from 4% to 2% . It plans to eliminate the slaes tax on groceries entirely.
- Connecticut and Missouri reduced their state income tax rate.
Wednesday, January 3, 2024
Super size it.
Lex Anteinternet: Tuesday, January 1, 1924. Receiving the New Year.:
When I put this up on January 1, I also posted this calendar image on Reddit's 100 Years Ago sub. Somebody came by and remarked on how tiny the glass the young woman is holding was.
And indeed it was.
Coca-Cola for years came in a 6.5 oz bottle, not 12. It's interesting to reflect on as it really says something about proportions.
Coke's iconic bottle was a 6.5 oz bottle until 1955.
Its competitor Pepsi started using 12 oz bottles in 1934. In fact, that as one of its marketing devices, as it came in a 12 oz bottle, having a jingle that went
Pepsi-Cola hits the spotTwelve full ounces, that's a lot!Twice as much for a nickel, tooPepsi-Cola is the drink for you.
It says something about the quality of Coke, or at least the original recipe of it, that people would in fact pay the same amount for half of what they'd get if they'd bought Pepsi instead. It also says something about soda in general that it's so cheap to make, the added 6 oz of product really doesn't do anything to the economic bottom line.
In 1955, Coke switched to 10 oz bottles and 12 oz bottles and offered a "Family" sized bottle of 26 oz. The move was not without internal company controversy, however. One company executive stated that “bringing out another bottle was like being unfaithful to your wife.”
But that 55 10 or 12 oz bottle isn't gigantic.
When I was growing up in the 60s and 70s, when you went to a fast food restaurant and got a soda, large was a 12 oz serving with ice. Starting in the 80s, somehow, that doubled, with stores, particularly convenience stores, advertising what was essentially double that.
24 oz of Coke is a lot.
And it went on from there.
McDonald's, when it was first getting up and running, served Coke in 7 oz cups. After Coke switched, it started serving it in 16 oz cups. In 1980, 7-11 introduced the "Big Gulp" which weighed in at an absurd 32 oz. In 86, 7-11 introduced the 44 oz Super Big Gulp, and everyone went down that road thereafter.
Indeed, now, getting a small or medium soda draught is really what a person should do, and on the rare occasions when I get fast food, I try to get that. But most people don't. Even little kids get the 55 gallon size soda drink.
And that's really not good for you.
Monday January 3, 1944. The Turner Explosion.
George C. Marshall was Time's Man Of The Year.
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The USS Turner suffered a series of internal explosions while in harbor off of the Ambrose Light in New York. 138 of the 256-man crew died during the incident. A Coast Guard Sikorsky HNS-1 flown by Lieutenant Commander Frank A. Erickson flew two cases of blood plasma, lashed to the helicopter's floats, from New York to Sandy Hook, saving many of the injured crewman, and providing the first incident of a helicopter used in that fashion.
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Commander Frank A. Erickson, USCG and Dr. Igor Sikorsky, Sikorsky Helicopter HNS-1. The HNS-1 had been in service for slightly under a year at this time.
Gregory "Pappy" Boyington was shot down and became a Prisoner of War of the Japanese.
The Red Army took Olevsk, a mere ten miles from the pre-war Polish border.
The Reichskanzlei was hit during an RAF raid on Berlin, which otherwise caused little damage but which resulted in the loss of 27 Lancasters.
William Tubman took office as the President of Liberia, which he would remain until 1971.
Thursday, January 3, 1924. The murder of Puerto.
Puerto.
Yucatán's governor, Filipe Carrillo Puerto, was executed by de la Huerta rebels for failing to support their revolution. Eleven others were murdered with him, including three of his brothers. He was 49 years old.
The 2024 Election, Part X. Your money where your mouth is edition, sort of?
The last edition started wiping out everything on the front page for some glitchy computer reason, and was hard to post in. So, already on to a new one, with which we start with this interesting item:
November 21, 2023
But there happen to be better numbers than the ones Cohn and his prophesizing colleagues are citing. And they show Biden well ahead. The prediction markets for elections — essentially investors putting money on candidates — has a Biden win trading at 43 cents, which implies a 43% chance of victory, according to the Financial Times. Trump is trailing at 37 cents, while the other candidates are long shots.
What might make these markets a better indication of the candidates’ prospects than those political polls? For one thing, they have a better record of accurately predicting the winner.PredictIt is currently the biggest legal site for political-prediction trading in this country.
A smaller political predictions market is Iowa Electronic Markets, at the University of Iowa. Like PredictIt, the Iowa market operates under the academic exception made by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). PredictIt works in a nonprofit arrangement with Victoria University in New Zealand.
The Financial Times sets forth the argument made by PredictIt founder John Aristotle Phillips that “prediction markets are a truth generator, powered by the invisible hand. ... If you trade based on fake news or half-baked punditry, you’re going to lose your money.”
From Harrop: Actually, Biden is ‘polling’ really well in the markets.
Whose running, check the last edition, it hasn't changed.
Breaking tradition and protocol, Speaker of the House Johnson has endorsed Trump.
November 23, 2023
November 28, 2023
Koch-backed super PAC Americans for Prosperity Action endorsed Nikki Haley.
December 4, 2023
Mysterious mailers attack Wyoming lawmakers, prompt investigation
On a different note, one of the panel members on This Week came absolutely unglued at the argument that Trump is a threat to democracy.
Now, frankly, I think Trump is a threat to democracy.
However, the commentator's point was a good one, which was that the Democrats don't believe that. His argument was that if they did, they wouldn't be fielding Biden.
Now, I think many Democrats are correct that Trump is very much a threat to democracy, but it is hard to ignore the fact that it's hard to believe their sincerity in the argument when they only think they're will got five voters is a warmed over Cup of Joe. People keep asking to see the menu, but the waitress just asks, "can I reheat that cup for you?"
Not only that, I'd note, but at the same time that Democrats are arguing that Trump is a threat to democracy, they're also arguing that all third party choices must not be considered.
Eh?
Um, in a functioning democracy they would be considered.
Of course, the reason for that is, to extend the analogy above, you might walk across the street and look at somebody else's menu. "Hmmm. . . I think I've had enough of this coffeee, do you want to walk across the street and get some ice cream?" What? What, are you crazy? Ice Cream will make you fat! Let me reheat that for you.
December 5, 2023
Doug Burgum has dropped out of the Republican contest.
While other candidates do remain, basically this race is down this Haley, DeSantis, Trump and Christie, with it appearing increasingly unlikely that Christie has a chance.
December 6, 2023
Criminal Defendant Donald Trump, in an interview with Sean Hannity, stated:
I love this guy. He says, 'You’You’re not going to be a dictator, are you?' I said, 'No, no, no. Other than Day One.' We’re closing the border, and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. After that, I’m not a dictator.
So, contrary to the headlines, Trump in fact confirmed that he'd act like a dictator, but confined it to a single day, which gets back to his delusional comments that anything can be done in a day.
President Biden indicated he likely wouldn't be running again, but for Trump, in which case he should not be running, as most Democrats don't want him to be and it looks like he'll lose to Trump.
Liz Cheney is hinting that she may run for the Presidency as a third party candidate.
December 17, 2023
Jefferson Davis, a man whose times have seemed to return.
Drawing his lines clearer than ever, Donald Trump unleashed a series of far right dog whistles this past week, including those that recall strongly racist and fascists elements. To start with, regarding immigration:
TRUMP: No, nobody has ever seen anything like this. And I think we could say worldwide. I think you could go to the... you could go to a banana republic and pick the worst one, and you're not going to see what we're witnessing now. No control whatsoever. Nobody has any idea where these people are coming from, and we know they come from prisons. We know they come from mental institutions. . . insane asylums. We know they're terrorists. Nobody has ever seen anything like we're witnessing right now. It is a very sad thing for our country. It's poisoning the blood of our country. It's so bad, and people are coming in with disease. People are coming in with every possible thing that you could have. And I got to know a lot of the heads of these countries. They're very cunning people. Very street-smart people. If they're not street-smart, they're not going to be there very long. And when they send up those caravans, and I had it ended, we had the safest border in the history of our country, meaning the history, over the last 80 years. Before that, I assume it was probably not so bad. There was nobody around. But, we had the safest in recorded history by far. The least amount of drugs in many, many decades. The least amount of human trafficking, which is a tremendous problem. But, when you look at what's taking place now, nobody's... first of all, it's not sustainable by any country, including ours, even from a (inaudible) standpoint. And, you know, we built over 500 miles of wall. We were going to put up another 200 miles. And, we had it bought. Everything was bought. Everything was purchased. They were going to ready. It could have been done within three weeks. Another 200 miles, all done. And they didn't want to do it. When you look at the numbers of people coming in, and the numbers, Raheem, are much bigger than anyone understands. I really believe it's going to be 15 million people by the end of this year during this administration. That's larger than New York state. Ok, this is what we have.1 2
Trump also stated that immigrants would be subjected to stout entry testing, including determining if they agree with "our religion".
And now Donald Trump has stated this at a campaign rally:
I’ll implement strong ideological screening of all immigrants…If you don’t like our religion…then we don’t want you in our country.
One Twitter commentator that I follow stated that this was the most anti-American statement he could imagine, but it really isn't. It's a very Southern populist viewpoint, of the type that we haven't seen openly from the 1960s and which most people believed was behind us.
This is ample evidence of how a genuine problem, the absurdly high level of immigration, legal and illegal, that has existed in the country for decades now, but which has been consistently ignored, has festered in the rust belt and populist populations. It could have been addressed in an equitable fashion before, but now it's threatening to breakout in a really malevolent fashion. This issue alone may end up defeating Biden, and we should take Trump fully at his word in what he intends to do.
The citation to religion, we'd note, is ironic, as Trump is not a religious man in any fashion, which again demonstrates the extent to which Southern Cultural Christianity has crept into the GOP, and particularly the New Apostolic Reformation movement. Apostolic Christianity and Judaism are full of Biblical injunctions that immigrants are to be welcomed, something that has long made conservative American Catholics uncomfortable. But this approach that Trump has now adopted is radical in pledging a religious test for entry, something that has never existed in the country's history. This too has been a smoldering cultural problem, although it's camouflaged here. Prior to Ted Kennedy's redrafting of American immigration, US immigration policy strongly favored immigrant pools that reflected existing American demographics. His reforms, adopted by Congress, changed that, and many have been uncomfortable with those changes, and this is again erupting in a malevolent fashion.
Trump also quoted Vladimir Putin about Joe Biden being a threat to democracy, which is absurd, but which again demonstrates the very weird Putin/Trump connection which has never been fully explored.
The truly scary thing here is that we seem to have gone over a tipping point where these views aren't shied away from, they're being endorsed by large segments of American society.
Footnotes:
1. Once again, I'm left amazed by some of the ignorance and weirdness in Trump's speech. The repetitious childishness of his speech patterns, and in this case prior to "80 years ago" "there was nobody around".
Trump just isn't right. Why is this being ignored?
2. Some have noted that the "poisoning the blood" language recalls Mein Kampf. In fact, it does. Hitler uses that line repeatedly, for example:
Unfortunately the German national being is not based on a uniform racial type. The process of welding the original elements together has not gone so far as to warrant us in saying that a new race has emerged. On the contrary, the poison which has invaded the national body, especially since the Thirty Years' War, has destroyed the uniform constitution not only of our blood but also of our national soul. The open frontiers of our native country, the association with non-German foreign elements in the territories that lie all along those frontiers, and especially the strong influx of foreign blood into the interior of the Reich itself, has prevented any complete assimilation of those various elements, because the influx has continued steadily.
The religious test quote Trump made, makes a person wonder if he's genuinely holding views of this type, although his language recalls anti desegregation Southern whites more strongly in my view.
December 20, 2023
The Supreme Court of Colorado, just as we predicted, has disqualified Donald J. Trump from appearing on the Colorado ballot.
Under the doctrine of full faith and credit, every state is now legally obligated to do the same, or at least give serious weight to Colorado’s decision. At least some other states will follow this route and as some, like Wyoming, will decry it, it will head to the United States Supreme Court. I’ll predict right now that the U.S. Supreme Court will uphold the Colorado decision, putting an end, although a precariously late one, to Trump as a candidate.
December 28, 2023
The case noted above has been appealed by the Colorado GOP to the United States Supreme Court, while at the same time, a similar effort in Michigan has failed to take Trump off of that state's ballot.
Should the U.S. Supreme Court take this matter up, which the Trump lawyers also say they will seek, it will prove to be an error and likely end up removing Trump from the race entirely.
Regarding Colorado, a surprise move by Lauren Boebert:
In a true Colorado political surprise, U.S. Rep. Lauren Boebert announced Wednesday night that she will abandon the congressional district she has represented for nearly three years — and seek her party’s nomination in 2024 on the other end of the state.
Boebert said she will run to represent Colorado’s 4th Congressional District, vying to succeed retiring U.S. Rep. Ken Buck, a fellow Republican.
“Personally, this announcement is a fresh start following a difficult year for me and my family,” Boebert said in a video announcement on Facebook. “I will not allow dark money that is directed at destroying me to steal this seat. It’s not fair to the 3rd District and the conservatives there who have fought so hard for our victories, of which I’m incredibly grateful.”
Boebert must be in real political trouble in her district to attempt this move, which very well may fail. She's going to have to relocate to get on the ballot, and presumably she'll have to resign her current seat when she does.
cont:
Colorado Supreme Court Ruling in Anderson v. Griswold Appealed to U.S. Supreme Court
Denver, December 28, 2023 - The Colorado Republican Party has appealed the Colorado Supreme Court’s decision in Anderson v. Griswold to the U.S. Supreme Court. With the appeal filed, Donald Trump will be included as a candidate on Colorado’s 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot when certification occurs on January 5, 2024, unless the U.S. Supreme Court declines to take the case or otherwise affirms the Colorado Supreme Court ruling.
Secretary of State Griswold has commented: “Donald Trump engaged in insurrection and was disqualified under the Constitution from the Colorado Ballot. The Colorado Supreme Court got it right. This decision is now being appealed. I urge the U.S. Supreme Court to act quickly given the upcoming presidential primary election.”
On December 19, the Colorado Supreme Court ruled Donald Trump is ineligible to appear on the Colorado 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot due to the Fourteenth Amendment to the U.S. Constitution. The Colorado Supreme Court simultaneously stayed that ruling until January 4, with that stay remaining in place in the event of an appeal.
Key Upcoming Dates:
- January 5: Deadline for Secretary of State Griswold to certify the names and party affiliations of candidates on the 2024 Presidential Primary Ballot.
- January 5: U.S. Supreme Court conference day
- January 20: Deadline for 2024 Presidential Primary Ballots to be sent to military and overseas voters.
- February 12: First day 2024 Presidential Primary Ballots can be mailed to active registered voters.
- February 26: First day of in-person voting for the 2024 President Primary.
- March 5: Colorado 2024 Presidential Primary Day, polls close at 7:00 PM Mountain Time.
cont:
Frankly, the decision above by the Colorado Secretary of State, unless there's more to it that I don't know, is flat out wrong. Her court has decided that Trump is unqualified. An appeal doesn't matter without an order from the appellate court staying the decision.
She's wrong.
Maine won't be the last state to decide in this fashion, and now there's a split set of decisions. The Supreme Court will have to intervene.
January 3, 2024.
Donald Trump's is appealing the ruling of the Secretary of State that Trump cannot stand for election under the 14th Amendment.
Last Edition:
The 2024 Election, Part IX. The Biggest Danger To The World Edition.
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