Friday, October 9, 2020

October 9, 1920 Contests.

October 9, 1920, cover of the Saturday Evening Post  I actually thought this was a Leyendecker rather than a Rockwell when I first saw it as it strongly resembles the former's work.

In the1920 World Series Game 4, the Brooklyn Robins went down to defeat, scoring 1 as opposed to the Cleveland Indians' 5 runs.

David Lloyd George declared in a speech that the British would not allow for Irish home rule and expressed British resolve to prevail in the Irish troubles.

Vilnius fell to Polish "mutineers" and Austria transferred South Tyrol to Italy, which retains it to this day, although it is an autonomous self governing Italian region. 

Fire Prevention Week was inaugurated in the United States and Canada.

Potomac Park including Hains Point, as well as the Naval Air Station Anacostia (upper left) and the Army Air Service's Bolling Field. October 9, 1920.

Idaho senior enlisted leader is a horseman and a Guardsman

Idaho senior enlisted leader is a horseman and a Guardsman: BOISE, Idaho – Chief Master Sgt. Harold Bongiovi sees a lot of similarities between working with horses and working with the Soldiers and Airmen he oversees as the Idaho National Guard’s senior

Thursday, October 8, 2020

October 8, 1920 Start of Żeligowski's Mutiny

On this day in 1920 Poland surreptitiously commenced a "mutiny" in Lithuania under General Lucjan Żeligowski.  Just the day prior Poland and Lithuania had entered into an agreement fixing their borders. The rebellion was a successful Polish effort to redraw those borders before the agreement even went into effect.

1920 Ethnographic map of Lithuania.

Like many of the post World War One wars, the war between Lithuania and Poland was ethnic in character, resulting from the blend of ethnicities in the pre war European Empires where such matters were largely secondary in nature.  Poland may best exemplify this in some ways as in modern times it had bee split between the German and Russian Empires, with Poles themselves living in regions that extended out into both empires.  When Polish independence came following World War One the two  halves of the country united and then struggles began to unite to the country those Poles who lived outside of its borders, but in neighboring areas.  This lead to wars with neighboring regions as well as to rebellions in neighboring regions.

Poles were heavily represented in Lithuanian border regions following the independence of both countries and in spite of forced population relocations after World War Two, Poles are still heavily represented in some areas of Lithuania.  Unlike with Poles and Ukrainians, however, Poles and Lithuanians are ethnically distinct.  Medieval Poland had at one time ruled Lithuania, which made this more complicated, and Marshall Pilsudski was born in Vilnius.  Contrasting with this, at one time the Grand Duchy of Lithuania had been the largest state in Europe, and had stretched all the way to the Black Sea.  The relationship between the two countries was complicated, with Poland at one time having a Lithuanian king and Lithuanian figures being prominent in regional efforts to defend both countries against the Russians.  To complicate matters further, Lithuania had seen a significant German colonization, as had the other Baltic states, leading to a sizable German minority.

While before World War One these various ethnicities had managed to get along in recent times, with there even being confusion between their identities, the nationalistic feelings everywhere following World War One changed that.  Poland worked to incorporate all of the regions bordering it where Poles were located, not without some justification.  This lead to clashes with Lithuania, which like Poland was simultaneously fighting the Soviet Union, and which was a very small state.  It also lead, in Poland's case, to a war with much larger Ukraine.

By October 1920 the Poles were exhausted from fighting the Russians and didn't not wish to continue any of the post World War One wars.  It did, however, regard Vilnius as critical and therefore sponsored this clandestine effort flying the false flag of being a rebellious Polish unit.  The Poles would win and the region would declare itself to be independent and then join Poland in 1922, an act which was not recognized by Lithuania.

October 8 was a travel day in the 1920 World Series.

In the far north, near Mount McKinley, a Caterpillar Tractor was towing freight.



Timeline of U.S. Army Enlisted Ranks, 1920 to Present

A really interesting look at the NCO structure from a century ago until the present.

Timeline of U.S. Army Enlisted Ranks, 1920 to Present

I'm really quite surprised that Private E1s were at one time one stripers, where as now they are E2s.  Likewise, I'm surprised that Corporals were E3s up until 1948 and likewise Sergeants were E4s.

The lack of "buck sergeants" (three stripes) between 1948 and 1959 is extremely surprising, although I see the E5 grade was called Sergeant and had three stripes and a rocker.

I'm most familiar with the 1959 to present structure and had always assumed Army Sergeants, as opposed to USAF Sergeants, were E5s or the equivalent.

Some Gave All: Mellon Foundation Announces Quarter-Billion-Dollar...

Some Gave All: Mellon Foundation Announces Quarter-Billion-Dollar...:

Mellon Foundation Announces Quarter-Billion-Dollar Grant Commitment for “Monuments Project” to Reimagine and Rebuild Commemorative Spaces and Transform the Way History is Told in the United States | The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation

But what does that mean?

Here's their release on the topic:


Mellon Foundation Announces Quarter-Billion-Dollar Grant Commitment for “Monuments Project” to Reimagine and Rebuild Commemorative Spaces and Transform the Way History is Told in the United States | The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation: A press release from The Andrew W. Mellon Foundation.
And yet I still don't know what that means.

I do know that $250,000,000 is a lot of money.  But is it a lot of money in this context.  That depends, I suppose.  But it'd depend on things that aren't clear, and its not clear what they really mean. 

Wednesday, October 7, 2020

Sudden Declarations of the End of the Oil Age?



Usually when I get in a discussion on this it surprises people, even really highly educated people, as they're prepared in their minds to engage in a completely different discussion.  For people who are Greens, it's that coal is dirty and needs to go, and they're going to drive it under, and they might have that view on petroleum as well.  For people who take the opposite view, it's that coal is necessary and the Greens need to get out of the way, and they might make references to petroleum as well.


I note that as there's been rumblings that technology is catching up with petroleum oil, even here in Wyoming, where such thoughts were dismissed until very recently.

And given that, it might be worthwhile to put an ear to the ground (the derrick? the pumpjack?) and listen to what the rumblings are.

Now, to be fair to the story, part of what we're hearing is undoubtedly due to the advancement of environmental concerns.  This thread isn't on that, but it would be dishonest to maintain otherwise.

It's also be dishonest, however, to say that all of them are by any means.

Rather, what this thread is about is the rumblings we're beginning to hear from some sources, and what that means.  Things may be getting hard to ignore.

Recently an issue of the AAPG Explorer arrived.  I'm a member of the AAPG, the American Association of Petroleum Geologists, and in issues for some time there have been quite an assortment of articles that make it clear that industry insiders basically feel that the current trend towards reduced petroleum usage is a long term and unstoppable one.  A decade ago or so there were scientific articles on climate change and the geologic view of that, but that's really stopped.  At one point the change  in the articles came to be that no matter what the science may be, the trend of accepting it was long term and the industry had to brace for that.

Now thing have changed again.  Oil is in a severe slump (still under $40/bbl) and recent indications from Saudi Arabia are that prices in that range will remain until at least 2023, absent market spikes here and there.  The last issue of the Explorer made it plain that industry insiders now don't expect the long term future for petroleum to feature must fuel tank use.

Now, keep in mind, this is from the AAPG, not the Green Party.  The AAPG is made up of people who have made their livings in the petroleum industry.  So, this has sort of the same quality to it as an association of draft horse breeders issuing an exception of decreased need around 1910 or so.


Indeed, not only are industry geologist, who usually are pretty measured in their opinions, expressing this view, in their typical measured tones, but the rank and file on the rigs are too, through their actions.  Individuals I've known or whom I'm aware of, who have worked on rigs their entire work lives are now electing to take other jobs.

Indeed, both of those are remarkable as these aren't "green" decisions or statements.  Geologist in fact have been very careful regarding voicing opinions in this area and early on, when they started to, their statements were pretty measured and tended to be rooted in the geologic knowledge of the paleoclimate and what that caused them to think.  Indeed, they never really got an airing on that when they wanted to pitch in, interesting science though it is.  Being scientifically trained, they tended to express opinions rooted solely in their science, which is interesting as it had little to really do with their personal economics, which tends to be how most people approach these topics.

Folks who worked on the rigs tended to view things through those personal economics, which as noted is what most people in fact do.  The fact that they're now departing the industry, to some extent, is telling as that's voting on their personal economic assessment, which is informed and calculated.

Drilling rig crewmen, 1944.  Its unimaginable to see floor hands without hardhats today.

Anyhow, following that surprising news from the AAPG, came more from a committee of Wyoming's legislature, which we've already posted on here:

September 21, 2020

And here's the first entry:

A committee of the Wyoming legislature has passed a bill advancing a Road Use Charge.  The RUC would track a vehicle's highway miles by use of a GPS and then bill the user.  There's obviously a lot of technology that I don't grasp on this one, not the least of which is that I don't have a single vehicle equipped with a GPS so I don't know how that would really work.

While this bill did get past committee, my prediction is that it might not actually make it to the legislature and that it won't make it to the floor. It'll prove to be unpopular with Wyomingites, at least right now, who will find the thought of being tracked by GPS offensive.

On that, I'm not sure how it actually intends to track a vehicle.  It's interesting in that there's a certain assumption that everyone drives a relatively modern vehicle, which I suppose most do.  All mine are older, however.

September 23, 2020

A review of the RUC bill, which can be read here, indicates that in fact the law anticipates automobiles being retrofitted with GPS devices or individuals having to report their odometer readers.

It further envisions six categories of motor vehicles with six different charge per mile rates.  Looking at it and roughly figuring it, it would cost me a little under $5.00 in tax to drive my truck to Laramie.  The gas tax is supposed to be phased out after it passes, if it does.

Again, it may be just me but I have a very hard time imaging the average Wyomingite liking the idea of retrofitting their vehicle with a GPS monitor for any reason.

That committee passed on a bill proposing to basically make all Wyoming highways a type of toll road through a per vehicle Road Use Charge system.  One of the reasons that was cited by one committee members was the on coming arrival of increasing numbers of electric vehicles which don't use gasoline and therefore pay no gas tax at the pumps. The head of the Wyoming Department of Transportation cited the same thing, while expressing skepticism at the speed at which they'll arrive in a recent statement, and while also using some surprising analogies (like cavalry to tanks, for example).  Indeed, there were statements levied at legislature "RINOS" and the like.  I don't think the RUC stands a chance of passing, which is not the point.   The point is that members of the legislature, who are pretty conservative and who have a lot vested in Wyoming's energy economy, are publicly acknowledging that its in a permanent downturn in their view.

As if to emphasize that, just a couple of days after the legislature passed that item on from committee, the Governor of California issued an executive order banning the sale of new petroleum fueled motor vehicles after 2035.

I noted at the time that I really doubt that's a Constitutional act, but so far it hasn't been challenged.  Of course, there's years and years to challenge it.  But the fact that a state executive officer has now flat out taken on petroleum fueled vehicles is pretty telling.  Even if this was struck down by a Court, it's highly likely that California's legislature would pass a law providing for the same thing.  And they're likely just one of several states that would take that act right now.

Wyomingites used to take cold comfort in the belief that if this sort of thing happened people would have to "freeze in the dark at home", but that's pretty clearly not the case anymore. We've already addressed the onset of really effective "renewable" sources of power generation, although we still feel that the omission of nuclear power from that is flat out dim, but now there's evidence that's starting to change.  While some will take a little hope from the U.S. Supreme Court's indication that it wants a Solicitor's brief in Wyoming's lawsuit on Pacific Northwest ports, the trends there are really irreversible.  Nuclear power, which really ought to be pushed strongly for anyone who is really serious about clean energy, and who is educated in a real sense about it, could be for Wyoming, to a smaller extent, what coal has been.  We aren't doing much about that.

Anyhow, the old "you won't be able to drive your cars" clearly isn't going to be true in the near future.  Nobody now denies that electric cars have really arrived.  You still hear some claims that "well, you can't use them here. . . ", but most cars aren't sold here.  And besides, that soon won't be true.  Jeep is introducing an electric Jeep. . . and that means something.

And if California's ban remains in place, the economic boost that gives to electric vehicles will be enormous.  Along with that, Joe Biden is indicating that if he's elected to the Oval Office, which it appears he will be, he'll require the Federal vehicle fleet, which is huge, to covert to electric over time, and that he'll take a similar approach to California in terms of phasing out petroleum vehicles.

If all three of those things hold; i.e., California mandates new cars be electric fifteen years hence, the Federal government does the same, and the Federal motor vehicle fleet switches to electric, the shift to electric vehicles won't take fifteen years.  It'll happen quicker than that.

All of which is why geologist who have made their living in oil and legislators who have to fund the state by way of it are now taking the view that its inevitable.

October 7, 1920. False diplomacy, wishful thinking, and the Robins take game three.

 
Attendees at the Suwałki Conference.

At Suwałki  the Poles and the Lithuanians, under pressure from the League of Nations, entered into a treaty defining their border. The Polish government entered into it disingenuously.  The treaty put Vilnius in Lithuania.

The Brussels Conference sitting in that city issued a report urging all nations to balance their budgets, reduce armaments, form an international credit association, and reform currencies.

The Brooklyn Robins beat the Cleveland Indians in game three of the World Series, 2 to 1.

The Baby At The Office

Awwww. . . ooooo. . . awwww.

Yes, a baby at the office.

And yes, those voices are all female.

Idiots in faculty lounges or in the halls of Radical Thin Whites For Pacifistic Gender Free Government Basic Income who think that there's not a gigantic (and biologically proven, by the way) difference between men and women have apparently never been in an office when a baby arrives.

Women stop working.

You could have a deadline which will destroy the American economy if not met today, but that doesn't matter.

There's a baby in the office.

The men keep working.

Coyotes caught by Ranger McEntire of Malheur National Forest, Winter 1912 & 1913


 

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

October 6, 1920. East Coast Scenes

Clayton, New Jersey Fire Department.  October 6, 1920.

Game two of the World Series went to Brooklyn, 3 to 0.

Ebbets Field, October 6, 1920.

Outside Ebbets Field, October 6, 1920.


Monday, October 5, 2020

Holscher's Hub: Smoke from the Mullen Fire, October 4, 2020

Holscher's Hub: Smoke from the Mullen Fire, October 4, 2020:

Smoke from the Mullen Fire, October 4, 2020





October 5, 1920. World Series begins, Russo Polish War ends, Railways reopen.


 The 1920 World Series started on this day, in 1920.

Crowd in Ebbets Field.

Cleveland won the first game, 1 to 0.

New York City Mayor John Hylan throws ball to open World Series at Ebbets Field

Poland and the Soviet Union signed an armistice to end the fighting between their countries.  Fighting would stop on October 18.

In Egypt, the American University in Cairo opened.

Elsewhere in the Middle East, a new railroad opened up.  Or rather a rebuilt raiilway.

The opening of the Jaffa-Jerusalem Railway was attended, as all such things were, by the senior British official.


The line had originally been a narrow gauge railway, but  the British reconstructed it to a new, more useful, wider gauge.
While it has been closed from time to time, updates and reconstructions have meant that the rail line remains in use today.



A Little Laughter To Make it Through This Dark Time

A Little Laughter To Make it Through This Dark Time: Here are a few stories that will brighten your day. There's nothing like reading Patrick McManus to make us feel a little better.

Monday Morning Repeat from the week of June 7, 2009. Dual Careered Lawyer and Modern Transportation

We have two this Monday morning.
Lex Anteinternet: Modern Transportation: Changes in transportation methods were brought home to me again this week. On Tuesday of this past week I drove 140 miles to Rawlins Wyom...
and
Lex Anteinternet: Dual Careered lawyer: Here's an interesting item from today's CST history column. I'm afraid that I'm interested in it for the wrong reasons. ...