Showing posts with label Republican Party. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Republican Party. Show all posts

Sunday, March 3, 2024

Wars and Rumors of War, 2024. Part 3. The Putin's Cheerleaders Edition.

February 13, 2024


You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
If your position is being cheered by Vladimir Putin, it’s time to reconsider your position.
Mitt Romney

Mitt Romney, whom I did not care much for as a Presidential candidate, has gone on to be an absolute hero in the Senate.  It's tragic that he's leaving this year.

Equally tragic is that the once pro defense Republican Party has not only retreated into isolationism, it's gone into America First isolationism, last seen advanced by the likes of the Bund and Lindbergh just prior to World War Two. 

February 15, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians sank the Caesar Kunikov amphibious ship near Alupka with naval drones.

North Korea v. South Korea

North Korea announced that it will take a more aggressive approach to disputed waters near its border with South Korea.

Myanmar

Myanmar announced it will begin to commence its citizens, male and female, to fill a 60,000 man shortage.

February 17, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Avdiivka has fallen to the Russians after months of fighting.


Severe ammunition shortages are becoming a factor in Ukraine, something that has set in since Republicans following Putin Fan Boy Donald Trump's views have held up aid.

Germany and France both signed bilateral security agreements with Ukraine on February 16.


Putin was bragging up the T-90

M'eh

And now the Russian Navy.

2011 Navalny designed poster about Putin's United Russia party, declaring it to be a "party of crooks and thieves".

Alexei Navalny became the latest Putin opponent in Russia, or outside of it, to die under mysterious circumstances. The 47-year-old politician reportedly collapsed in a penal colony, where he was serving a sentence for "extremism".  Trump mouthpiece Lord Haw Haw Carlson excused the death in an interview.

February 18, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War.

A series of rising reactions to the failure of the US to provide ongoing aid to Ukraine is resulting in ramping pressure on the weak Leader of the House, Mike Johnson.

Johnson came into office declaring himself on a mission from God (literally) but so far he's pretty much been a puppet of Trump's, the strings being his extraordinarily weak position, one that is now even weaker as Santos was predictably replaced with a Democrat.  Between the refusal to act on the border due to Trump and Ukraine, there's frankly a pretty good chance, in my view, that the Democrats might flip the House in the fall.

At any rate, we'd first note that Congress went on vacation without acting.  President Zelenskyy commented that dictators did not go on vacation.

President Biden urged Congress to act.

Vice President Harris pledged US support.

National Review has an editorial aimed at Johnson urging he get off his duff and do something.

A bill in the House provides 47.7 billion for Ukraine, $10.4 billion for Israel, with has strong House report for some interesting reasons, $4.9 billion for the Indo Pacific, including Taiwan and $2.4 billion for supporting U.S. Central Command operations, including funding to offset efforts to deter Houthi
militant attacks in the Red Sea.

Matt Gaetz stated: ". . . I think that is a lot more significant to my constituents than which dude gets to run Crimea"

Presumably one of those things is getting conscripted when Poland and the Baltic States are invaded, which may well be coming, and fighting the first real toe to toe, peer to peer war, since World War Two.

About 400 Russians have been arrested for attending Navalny memorials.

Mexican Border Crisis

Democrats are also exploiting the GOP's Trump ordered failure to act on the border by exploiting the topic, which is now becoming an asset for them.

February 19, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

Israel set a deadline for the start of Ramadan in which it will invade Rafah if its hostages are not freed.

That would be March 10.

While seemingly missed, this may be a change in position towards a negotiated resolution of the conflict, as prior to this Israel has essentially taken the position that it will not be restrained, no matter what.

Papua New Guinea Tribal Warfare

53 people were killed in intertribal warfare on Papua.

February 20, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War
I don’t like this reality. Vladimir Putin is an evil war criminal.Vladimir Putin will not lose this war.
Mike Johnson last week.  Lindbergh said the same thing about Hitler.

Defecting Russian helicopter pilot Maxim Kuzminov was murdered in Spain.

Donald Trump posted that somehow the death of a Russian opposition leader who was put in a gulag by his Trump's buddy Putin, was sort of about him.


February 21, 2024

Hamas Israeli War

The US vetoed a cease fire resolution in the UN.

February 22, 2024

Trump in a Fox News interview stated, regarding nuclear war, the following:
I worry about their safety too. These people, everyone in this room is in great danger. We have a nuclear weapon that if you hit New York, South Carolina is gone

FWIW, and Trump is receiving criticism on this, the yield of a nuclear weapon is sufficient by a long measure to destroy South Carolina from a strike in New York.  Prevailing wind patters, also, would not carry the fallout there.

Anyhow, I'm noting this here as a recent item on NPR's Politics discussed Trump's fear of nuclear war, which apparently is very pronounced. 

I don't give Trump credit for deep thought s on very much.   The Internet has allowed a lot of those in the shallow end of the pool to have voice as if they know what they're talking about, and frankly I'd include Trump in those in the shallow end of the pool.  But apparently nuclear war is one thing he actually thinks about and has opinions on, and he's afraid of it.

That doesn't really surprise me too much.

Trump came of age in in the 1960s which was at a time that the fear of nuclear war was quite pronounced.  It remained that way in the 1970s, and by the early 1980s I recall being forced to read  A Republic Of Grass. which urged that we surrender to the Soviet Union, essentially, right then and there rather than face the prospect of nuclear war, which lefties were certain Ronald Reagan was going to get us into.  I recall some on the right saying "there are worse things than death" in response to such things, which is harsh, but true.

But if your values end at yourself, maybe there aren't.

Russo Ukrainian War

Prominent Russian milblogger Andrei Morozov committed suicide after refusing Russian military command orders to delete his reports on high Russian casualty rates around Avdiivka.

Iranian sources told Reuters that the country provided hundreds of short-range ballistic missiles to Russia in early January. 

That certainly helps Russia, but it also shows that industrially its a shadow of the former USSR.

Putin gave a car to the North Korean Communist Monarch.

February 23, 224

Houthi's

The Houthis on sent shippers and insurers a formal notice of a ban on vessels they deem linked to Israel, the U.S. and UK from sailing in waters bordering Yemen. They also declared they are going to use submarine weapons.

Russo Ukrainian War

NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said that Ukraine has a right to use its Western-supplied weapons to defend itself against Russia, up to and including targeting sites within Russia.

February 24, 2024

Armenia is suspending its membership in Russia's Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO).

February 25, 2024

Houthi's

The US and UK struck 18 Houthi targets yesterday.

Cont:

Russo Ukrainian War

In a speech marking the two-year point in the war, President Zylenskyy indicated 31,000 Ukrainian soldiers have lost their lives so far, which is actually about half of what I previously saw estimated some time ago.

Two separate measures are being introduced to provide aid to Ukraine that go around Mike Johnson, who has proven to be a Trump flunkie.

King Charles praised President Zylenskyy for his countrymen exhibiting something that Johnson is not, that being courage.

Nigeria

Fifteen Catholics were murdered at Sunday Mass.

February 26, 2024

Hamas v. Israel

The PM of Israel made it clear that it is Israel's intent to enter Rafah no matter what.  A ceasefire will merely delay that.

Russo Ukrainian War

Two separate discharge petitions to bring funding for Ukraine are being introduced into the House on different bills, one being the bill that has already passed the Senate.  There seems to be optimism that one of them, that being the unique House bill in particular, will pass in this end run around politically castrated Trump eunuch, Mike Johnson.

ISW reports that there were more Russians casualties taking Avdiivka, 47,000, than in the entire Soviet Afghan War.

February 29, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has taken Stepove, seven miles northwest of Avdiivka. Ukrainian have pulled back from Stepove and the neighboring village of Sieverne.

Maybe the Russians will put up a monument to Mike Johnson there.

March 1, 2024

Russo Ukrainian War

A Ukrainian missile strike killed 19 troops, injured 12 and Colonel Roman Kozhukhov, a respected commander in the occupied Donetsk in Ukraine.  They were at a medal ceremony.

Donald Trump's Minister of Propaganda, Tucker "Lord Haw Haw" Carlson, stated that Donald Trump's object of affection, Vlad Putin, was stating something "dumb" when he justified the assault on Ukraine on the object of denazification.

China v. Taiwan

The PRC Coast Guard patrolled prohibited and restricted waters around Taiwan-controlled Kinmen.

Mexican Border Crisis

Both President Biden and would be president Trump were on the Mexican border yesterday.

March 2, 2024

Hamas v. Israel

The United States is going to air drop humanitarian relief into Gaza.

Russo Ukrainian War

Transnistria, breakaway sliver of Moldova, which itself is a Cyrillic using region of Romania that's a separate country as the Russians oppose Moldova uniting with Romania, asked Russia for "protection" from Moldova.

March 3, 2024

Houthis v. the West

A fertilizer ship hit days ago by the Houthis has sunk.

Russo Ukrainian War

For unknown reasons, North Korean munitions shipments to Russia appear to have stopped.

Related Threads:


Last Prior Edition:

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

The 2024 Election, Part XII. The March To Moscow

 

Napoleon leaving a burning Moscow, which also burned his provisions, and resulted in France's ultimate defeat.

January 16, 2024

In a surprise to no one, Trump won the Iowa Caucuses.  The Republican, and perhaps the nation's, march to disaster commences.  The GOP is set, absent some of the predictions set out below, to either elect a vengeful septuagenarian juvenile who will take them into defeat yet again, or who will become an unprecedented in character President who will hold that office with a minority of Americans having actually voted for him.

Either way, it's the death of the GOP.  Backing a repeat loser isn't a path to long term success. The overall question is when a replacement for the GOP emerges, and whether the Democrats reform themselves in the meantime.  If there's any silver lining to a Trump victory, and that's a big if, both of those things would be it.

A repeat from yesterday:

June 15, 2024 

Martin Luther King Day

Wyoming Equality Day

Iowa Caucus Day

On This Week, a Democratic member of Congress noted that Republican politicians who had opposed Trump were now rushing to endorse him, least they meet the ire of the MAGA crowed. 

Probably two of the recent Wyoming endorsements fit that category.

Tonight at 7:00 p.m. the Iowa Caucus's will open in frigid weather, apparently not taking note that this is at least technically a day off for a lot of people (it isn't for most people).  Gathering at 7:00 p.m. in order to choose a candidate for your party will be weighed, by many, against the agony of going out in the cold.

That's the only hope for those running against Trump.

It cannot help but be noted that the Iowa Caucus, while it probably made sense at one time, emphasizes the antiquated and downright stupid way the US picks its President.  States position themselves to be first to pick, which none of them have the right to be. At least caucuses are party elections, not funded (I think) by the state.  Most states have primaries which are party elections on the state's dime, which isn't just, and is arguably, in my view, unconstitutional.

To add to things, this year, Trump's ability to even hold office is presently in front of the United States Supreme Court.

Given all of this, I'm going to close this issue out with a few predictions, giving percentages.

I think Trump will take Iowa, and I'd give that a 100% chance.  Biden will of course take Iowa.

I'm giving Haley a 60% chance of taking New Hampshire.  New Hampshire doesn't like to look like Iowa's lapdog and it is a East Coast state with a history of acting independently.

Irrespective of that, if I'm wrong on the matters noted below, there's a 75% chance that Trump is the GOP nominee and a 100% chance Biden is the Democratic nominee.

Now, here's where some will think we're off the rails.

I think there's a 60% chance the United States Supreme Court will find Trump an insurrectionist unqualified to hold office.

When they do that, if they do, there will be a massive outbreak of right wing violence across the country.

If they do that, Haley will be the nominee.

I feel there's a 55% chance that Trump, who is an old man, who looks unhealthy, and who in my view is showing signs of dementia, will die before the election.  He's showing signs of decline every day.

If he dies, and I think he will, Haley will be the nominee.

I feel there's a 40% chance that Biden will pass away of natural causes before the election.

If he dies, and I don't think he will, I have no idea who the nominee will be.

In a Biden v. Trump rematch, Trump will win.  I don't want him to, but he will.

In a Biden v. Haley match, Haley will win.  The Democrats seem incapable of accepting that they're going with an unelectable candidate.

Assuming that Biden and Trump are the nominees, at some point after Super Tuesday, there's a 55% chance that somebody announces a major third party run.  I'm not sure who it will be, but Christie, Manchin and Cheney are all figures in that.  My guess is that it will be Manchin for President, with Christie as VP.

Everyone always states that no third parties ever win, even the GOP itself was a third party that in fact won, displacing the dying Whigs.  A third party here would displace the dying GOP.  I'd give a third party as 60% chance of winning.

Given the furor he stirs up, there are a lot of things I fear this election many feature that I'm not going to post, as I don't want them to look like something I'm endorsing by mentioning them.  Indeed, I'm afraid that they'll happen and desperately hope they do not.

This will close this edition.  The next one will come out on the morning after, so to speak, of the Iowa Caucus.

People should pray for the nation.

DeSantis came in second, defying hope for rising Haley.  Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out, and is likely to disappear from politics forever, unless Trump wins, in which case he'll resurface as some sort of early Trump cabinet choice.

The current tally:

Republican:  

Donald Trump:   20 delegates

Ron DeSantis:  8 delegates

Nikki Haley:  7 delegates

Vivek Ramaswamy:   3 delegates

Democrats:

Oddly, they aren't releasing their results until super Tuesday, March 5, but it's obvious who the winner is.

Cont:

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has dropped out of the GOP race.

January 19, 2024

Donald Trump, the son, grandson and twice the "husband" of immigrants if you discount that Christianity (he claims to be a Presbyterian) recognizes marriage once, for the period of a person's natural life, mocked Nicki Haley, the daughter of an immigrant, by calling her "Nimbra".

Not that it will matter.  Trump loyalist are so enamored with the one time Democrat that at this point there is literally nothing whatsoever he can do to dissuade their loyalty, including the fact that in a second Trump administration it will largely be others with an agenda who govern.  This base is now the majority of the GOP, the party having largely ceased to exist on an historical basis.

January 20, 2024

Former Presidential GOP candidate Tim Scott, whose campaign didn't go anywhere, has endorsed Donald Trump.

This may be cynical, but frankly I think Scott is angling for the VP ticket, and I'd guess he has a good chance of getting it.  He would, in fact, be a good choice for Trump.

cont:

Donald Trump pretty clearly confused Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi in a New Hampshire campaign rally, claiming that Haley was in charge of all the "troops", meaning that she could have called on National Guardsmen to protect the capitol.

Haley wasn't in office at the time.

Haley in turn called on his mental fitness.

More people should be. Trump doesn't act like somebody who okay mentally.  He's old, and in the footage of the rally, he does not look well.

January 21, 2024

Asa Huntinchinson endorsed Nikki Haley.

Trump, in a weird sort of way, endorsed Viktor Orbán:

There's a great man in Europe. Viktor Orbán… He’s a very strong man. It’s nice to have a strongman running your country

Orbán is the poster child for the far right's endorsement of Illiberal Democracy.

Trump also rejected the rule of law in the executive in the same rally, stating:

And you will have the rogue cop,  the bad apple, and perhaps you'll have that also with President But there's nothing you can do about that. You're going to have to give the President immunity. I hope The Supreme Court will has the courage to do that.

These statements from a man who will only be a "dictator for a day". 

Trump, on the same day he confused Haley for Pelosi, made reference to having run against President Obama, which he never did.

Cont:

And now it's down to two. DeSantis dropped out and then endorsed Trump.  His dropping out, however, probably does Haley a favor.

January 22, 2024

North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has now endorsed Trump, having dropped out of the race some time ago.

It's clear where all this is headed.  Republican politicians are going to go to Trump on bended knee, irrespective of what that means.

January 23, 2024


The Democrats, being the party that doesn't lose elections, but throws them away, are doing that right now by putting Vice President Harris on a "Reproductive Freedom", i.e. Infanticide, Tour.

Everything about this strategy is wrong.

First of all, the Democrats do not need to campaign as the party of infanticide, everyone knows they have blood on their hands and wish to continue odd making them wet.  Those supporting infanticide have nowhere else to go, and are going to vote Democratic no matter what.

Secondly, the numerous center right voters who would normally vote Republican but who are rational about Donald Trump and what he stands for have been working their way around to vote for Biden/Harris, but being reminded of this, particularly if they are devout or at least adherent  Catholics/Orthodox/Muslims will drive them away as it'll make the election about abortion and they can't go there.  This section of the electorate is big enough to determine the election.

Finally, Kamala Harris is one of the most dis-likeable candidates imaginable.  Joe Biden won the election in spite of her lat time, not because of her.  Nobody needs to be reminded that if in the high likelihood Joe Biden dies or becomes disabled in his second term, she becomes the far left successor President.

So, it was at this point, the Democrats lost the 2024 election.  The question is, who will win it?

Doug Burgum, who ran a disappointing race against Trump for the GOP nomination, will not run for another term as the Governor of North Dakota.

While it's mere speculation, a lot of Republicans are lining up to kiss Trump's ring (or other things) in hopes of becoming his VP.  Of those doing that, Burgum is actually a good choice.

On other matters, Elise Stefanik, attempting to explain away Trump's obvious mental lapse the other day, managed to issue one of the most confusing attempts at the same ever.  Stefanik has prostituted her talents to Trump and obviously will plumb any depths in her effort to sell herself into a position in his anticipated administration.

Oh Rich, but for Wales.

One of the things that Trump has been promising is to drill, which his audience likes to hear.  Funny thing is:

January 23, 2024

U.S. oil production has been holding at or near record highs since October, topping the previous peak from 2020, even though the number of active domestic oil drilling rigs is down by nearly 30% from four years ago.

New technology is the reason why there is higher production with fewer rigs.

And also:

The U.S. set a new annual oil production record on December 15, based on data from the Energy Information Administration. Although the official monthly numbers from the EIA won’t be released for a couple of months, we can calculate that a new record has been set based on the following analysis.

Prices at the pump have been declining.

Huh.

The irony of this is that Biden can't advance this matter for two reasons.  One is that while he hasn't restricted domestic production, as some in the GOP like to imagine, he also hasn't promoted production either.   This is happening on its own and is technology driven.  It shows how the economy, absent radical moves in it, is impacted much less by a President's policies than by outside economic forces.

January 24, 2024

Trump took the New Hampshire primary, Biden, who wasn't actually running in it, took the Democratic one.

Trump used the opportunity to threaten Haley.

Just a little note to Nikki, she is not going to win, but if she did she would be under investigation by those people in 15 minutes. I could tell you five reasons why already, not big reasons, little stuff that she doesn’t want to talk about, but she will be under investigation in minutes and so would Ron have been, but he decided to get out.

January 25, 2024

Biden received the endorsement of the United Auto Workers. 

Trump has declared that donors to the Haley campaign will be barred from Camp MAGA.  In the same tweet he called Haley a "bird brain"


Trump doesn't appear to be well, in my amateur diagnosis.  A nation that can vote for somebody saying these things isn't well, either.

January 26, 2024

I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump. And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is … really appalling.

But the reality is that, that we have a crisis at the border, the American people are suffering as a result of what’s happening at the border. And someone running for president not to try and get the problem solved. as opposed to saying, ‘hey, save that problem. Don’t solve it. Let me take credit for solving it later.’

Mitt Romney 

January 27, 2022

John Barrasso's second wife, Bobbi, died of brain cancer this past week.  She was a very nice person and had been a judicial law clerk after graduating from law school.  I knew her somewhat from law school and her service as a clerk.

The Governor noted her passing:

Governor Gordon Statement on the Passing of Bobbi Barrasso

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has issued the following statement on the passing of Bobbi Barrasso, wife of Wyoming Senator John Barrasso. Bobbi passed away in Casper after a two-year battle with Glioblastoma brain cancer.

Bobbi was a treasure, a Wyoming native who always put her family and the people of the state first. Jennie and I send our prayers and deepest condolences to John and their family. 

Bobbi was a longtime friend, a stalwart supporter of Wyoming and a resolute warrior against cancer. She always put service ahead of self. As a compassionate soul, she advocated tirelessly for Wyoming children, education, mental health and suicide prevention. She made a difference, and has left an indelible legacy. The Lord doesn’t make many as good as Bobbi. Wyoming was blessed to have known her. She will be missed.

The Governor will issue a flag notification once services have been announced.

A former coal executive who claims to be "Trumpier than Trump" has announced for Joe Machin's seat in West Virginia.

January 31, 2024

In Illinois, a hearing officer in an administrative process on Trump's eligibility to be on the ballot found Trump had engaged in an insurrection, but recommended the election board demur to the courts. The board in turn found that it lacked the power to remove Trump.

cont:

Elected Park County Precinct Committee members who were booted from their positions by the county Party for failure to attend meetings, including former Senator Alan Simpson, have been reinstated, although it may be temporary.  Other's booted include former Wyoming House speaker and party chairman Colin Simpson, Powell Mayor John Wetzel, Park County Commissioner Scott Steward and Northwest College Trustee Dusty Spomer.  At least Alan Simpson claims that they were booted for failing to meet the party's current ideological expectations.

A petition has been filed with the state party to keep them booted.

February 1, 2024

In the play stupid games category, the Oregon Supreme Court ruled that ten Republican state senators who refused to attend the state Senate for six weeks in an attempt to stall Democratic-backed bills cannot run for reelection.

February 4, 2024

Joe Biden won the Democratic South Carolina primary.  Oddly, the Republican one is on a different day.

February 5, 2024

Listening to the weekend shows this weekend brings on a sense of despair.

Trump now leads Biden by 5 points in the polls.  Granted, November is nine. . . only nine, months away.

J.D. Vance came on television and outright advocated for Trump to ignore the rulings of the Supreme Court if they're against him.  Increasingly, the hope that Trump will not be the next President has been placed on the U.S. Supreme Court enforcing the 14th Amendment. While Vance didn't say that Republican Secretaries of State should ignore such a ruling, it's impossible now not to regard that as highly likely, meaning that we're headed for a grave constitutional crisis in which it is potentially the case that the Supreme Court declares him ineligible, states place him on the ballot anyhow, and he wins the electoral vote, but cannot be seated.

In that instance, the next four years will be rough, and frankly, there will be violence regarding this.

A decent candidate, in these circumstances, would suspend his race. Trump is not decent.

Kristi Noem has been banned from the Pine Ridge Resevation.

Mexican Border Crisis






February 6, 2024

Intersting article on what local GOP figures are going to do re Trump, if their prior positions on Trump or Cheney are known.

Some Cheney 'Never Trumpers' Now Support Trump; Others Won't Budge

Quite a few are falling in line with Trump, not surprisingly. Some are not, however, notably Cale Case and Alan Simpson.

Last Prior Edition:

The 2024 Election, Part XI. The Winter of Discontent Edition.


Related Threads:




Monday, February 5, 2024

Tuesday, February 5, 1924. Joseph M. Carey passes away. Burying Wilson, Enjoining Tepot Dome.



Today In Wyoming's History: February 51924  Joseph M. Carey, Governor from 1911 to 1915, and member of the Republican and Progressive parties, died.in Cheyenne.

Carey was born in Delaware in 1845 and came to Wyoming after being appointed United States Attorney for the Territory of Wyoming in 1869.  He was still in his twenties at the time.  In 1871 he became an Associated Justice for the Territorial Wyoming Supreme Court, still at an absurdly young age.  He became mayor of Cheyenne in 1880.  Following statehood, he became a Senator in 1890. In 1895 he was not reelected by the legislature, which elected Senators at the time, due to his opposition to free silver, an opposition which was economically correct.  He was elected Governor in 1910 and served until 1915, joining the Progressive Party with Progressives bolted from the Republican Party.

Staying true to his Progressive views, he endorsed Woodrow Wilson during the 1916 election.  He was a supporter of Prohibition.

In addition to being a lawyer and politicians, he was a rancher, with large ranching interest in Central Wyoming.  In many ways, he's is representative of an era in Wyoming when people could come from out of state and become central in many aspects of the state's economic and political life.

In 1959, he was inducted into the National Cowboy Hall of Fame.




The Winter Olympics concluded.    France, Norway and Finland tied for gold medals.

Mexican rebels retreated from Vera Cruz as Federals won a victory at  Córdoba.

Friday, February 2, 2024

Should I Stay or Should I Go?

Questioner: "Why did you leave the Republican Party?"

George F Will: "The same reason I joined it. I am a conservative."



If I were to listen to people like Marjorie Taylor Greene, or some of the Freedom Caucus here in Wyoming, it would be go.

If I listen to lifelong residents here in the state, including some lifelong Republicans whom would currently be classified as RINO's by the newly populist Wyoming GOP, it would be stay.  Alan Simpson, who is an "anybody but Trump", former U.S. Senator, and who the Park County GOP tried to boot out as a elected precinct committeeman, is staying.

The problem ultimately is what time do you begin to smell like the crowd on the bus?

Konrad Adenauer of the Christian Democratic Union, West Germany's first post-war chancellor.  He worked towards compromise and ended denazification early, even though he'd speant the remaining months of World War Two in prison and barely survived.  By CDU - This file was provided to Wikimedia Commons by the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung, a German political foundation, as part of a cooperation project., CC BY-SA 3.0 de, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=16173747

To put it another way, I'd give an historical example.  It's often noted that quite a few Germans joined the Nazi Party as it was just a way to get by, or advance careers, etc., during the Third Reich period of German history.  When I was a kid, there was a lot of sympathy, oddly enough, for that view amongst those who were of the World War Two generation, although at the same time, there was a widely held belief that militarism, combined with radical nationalism, were something that was basically in the German DNA.  The US, as is well known, didn't even particularly worry about letting former Nazis into the country.

The Germans themselves pretty much turned a blind eye towards this, so many of them had been in the Nazi Party.  Even post-war German politicians who had spent the war in exile did, as it was the programmatic thing to do.

Since that time, however, that view has really changed.  It started to in 1968 when German students rioted and exposed former Nazis in the police.  Germans haven't really come to terms with it, but having been a member of the Nazi Party is a mark of shame, and it's become to be something despised everywhere, even if a person did it for practical reasons and wasn't really involved in the party.

And it should be a mark of shame.

Americans have been sanctimonious about that for a long time, but starting in the 1970s lots of Americans became ashamed, in varying degrees, of our own ancestors in regard to various things.  Ironically, the backlash to that, symbolized by Confederate battle flags, is part of what brings us to our current crisis.

Ed Herschler, former Marine Corps Raider, and Democratic lawyer, who was Wyoming's Governor from 1975 to 1987.  Herschler probably wouldn't have a home in today's Democratic Party in Wyoming.

I registered as a Republican the first time I was old enough to vote. The first Presidential Election I was old enough to vote in was the 1984 Presidential election, in which I voted for Ronald Reagan. The first election I was old enough to vote in was the 1982 off year election.  I honestly don't know who I voted for Senator.  Malcolm Wallop won, but I very well have voted for the Democrat.  Dick Cheney wont reelection that year against Ted Hommel, whom I don't recall at all.  I probably voted for Cheney.  I know that I voted for the reelection of Democratic Governor Ed Herschler, who was one of the state's great Governors. 

A split ticket.

Split tickets were no doubt common in my family.  My father would never reveal who he voted for in an election.  The first Presidential election I recall was the 1972 Election in which Nixon ran against McGovern, and I asked who he voted for when he came home. He wouldn't say, and I don't know to this day.  

I knew that my father registered Republican, but not everyone in my father's family did.  My grandmother, for one, registtered Demcrat,somethign I became aware of when we were visiting her, which we frequently did, at her retirement apartment here in town.  She was pretty clear that she was an unapologetic Democrat, which made sense given that she was 100% Irish by descent.  Most Irish Americans, at that time, were Democrats, and all real ones were Catholic.  Reagan, who claimed Irish ancestry, woudl have been regarded a a dual pretender for that reason by many of them.

My father's view, and it remains mine, that you voted for the person and what they stood for, not hte party.

But being in a party means something, and that has increasingly come to be the case.

I switched parties after that 1984 election.  I was, and remain, a conservative, but the GOP was drifting further from a conservative center in that period, and as I've noted, the election of Ronald Reagan paved the path for Donald Trump, although I won't say that was obvious then.  And also, Democrats were the party that cared about public lands, as they still do, and cared about rural and conservation issues that I cared about and still do. The GOP locally was becoming hostile to them. So I switched.

Campaign image for Mike Sullivan, Democratic Governor from 1987 to 1995.

I remained a Democrat probably from about 1984 until some time in the last fifteen years.  Being a Democrat in Wyoming meant that you were increasingly marginalized, but finally what pushed me out was that it meant being in the Party of Death.  The Democrats went from a party that, in 1973, allowed you to be middle of the road conservative and pro-life.  We had a Governor, Mike Sullivan, who was just that.  By the 2000s, however, that was becoming impossible.  Locally most of the old Democrats became Republicans, some running solid local campaigns as Republicans even though they had only been that briefly.  Even as late as the late 1990s, however, the Democrats ran some really serious candidates for Congress, with the races being surprisingly close in retrospect.  Close, as they say, only counts with hand grenades and horseshoes, but some of those races were quite close.  The GOP hold on those offices was not secure.

Dave Freudenthal, Democratic Governor from 2003 to 2011.

Before I re-registered as a Republican, I was an independent for a while.  Being an independent meant that primaries became nearly irrelevant to me, and increasingly, as the Democratic Party died and became a far left wing club, starting in the 2000s., it also meant that basically the election was decided in the primaries.  Like the other rehoming Democrats, however, we felt comfortable in a party that seemingly had given up its hostility to public lands.  And frankly, since the 1970s, the GOP in Wyoming had really been sui generis.  Conservative positions nationally, including ones I supported, routinely failed in the Republican legislature. Abortion is a good example.  The party nationally was against it, I'm against it personally, but bills to restrict it failed and got nowhere in a Republican legislature.

The Clinton era really impacted the Democratic Party here locally.  Wyomingites just didn't like him.  That really started off the process of the death of the Democratic Party here.  As center right Democrats abandoned the party in response, left wing Democrats were all that remained, and the party has become completely clueless on many things, making it all the more marginalized.  But just as Clinton had that impact on the Democrats, Trump has on the GOP.

Throughout the 70s and 80s it was the case that Wyoming tended to export a lot of its population, which it still does, and then take in transients briefly during booms.  In the last fifteen or so years, however, a lot of the transient population, together with others from disparate regions, have stayed.  They've brought their politics with them, and now in the era of Trump, those views have really taken over the GOP, save for about three pockets of the old party that dominate in Natrona, Albany and Laramie Counties.  A civil war has gone on in some counties, and is playing out right now in Park County.  In the legislature, the old party still has control, but the new party, branded as the Freedom Caucus, which likes to call its rival the UniParty, is rising.  The politics being advanced are, in tone, almost unrecognizable.

Like it or not, on social issues the old GOP's view was "I don't care what you do, just leave me alone". That attitude has really changed.  Given a bruising in the early 1990s due to a Southeastern Wyoming effort to privatize wildlife, the party became pro public lands for awhile. That's change.  The party was not libertarian.  That's changed.  

Money helped change it, which is a story that's really been missed.

Like the Democrats of the 90s, a lot of the old Republicans have started to abandon the party.  If there was another viable party to go to, floods would leave.  A viable third party might well prove to be the majority party in the state, or at least a close second to the GOP, if there was one.

There isn't.

So, what to do?

While it'll end up either being a pipe dream or an example of a dream deferred, there's still reason to believe that much of this will be transitory.  If Trump does not win the 2024 Presidential Election, and he may very well not, he's as done as the blue plate special at a roadside café as the GOP leader.  Somebody will emerge, but it's not really likely to be the Trump clone so widely expected.  And the relocated populists may very well not have that long of run in Wyoming.  Wyomingites, the real ones, also tend to have a subtle history of revenge against politicians who betray their interests.  Those riding hiding high on anti-public lands, anti-local interests, may come to regret it at the polls later on.

The Johnson County invaders of 1892. The Republican Party, whose politicians had been involved in the raid on Natrona and Johnson Counties, took a beating in the following elections.

Or maybe this process will continue, in which case even if Trump wins this year, the GOP will die.  By 2028, it won't be able to win anything and a new party will have to start to emerge.

We'll see.

None of which is comfortable for the State's real Republicans.

Sunday, January 28, 2024

January 28, 2014. The Hill decision.


Wyoming History in the Making: January 28, 2014 Wyoming S.Ct finds for Hill, 3-2

In a 3 to 2 decision, with a blistering dissent, the Wyoming Supreme Court struck down the decision restructuring the state Dapartment of Education in 2014WY15.pdf.

While Hill has, not without justification, declared this to be a victory, it isn't as complete as Hill may like to believe.  the Casper Star Tribune has come out urging the Legislature to try again, stating:
Now, Hill can not and must not be off the legislative agenda for the
session. Legislators, it's time to get to work. It's time to craft a
bill that can keeps Cindy Hill away from the Education Department -- one
that will survive a Supreme Court review.
The Supreme Court's
decision is not the victory Hill or her supporters pretend it is. By a
one-vote margin (and with a stinging dissent) the court left wide
latitude for the Legislature to write -- and narrow, even -- the job
description of the superintendent. It essentially said lawmakers went
too far with Senate File 104, the legislation that stripped Hill of most
of her powers, and said lawmakers broke the constitutional requirement
that demands the superintendent have "general supervision of the public
schools."
The Tribune further stated:
Cindy Hill has proven she's not not a good leader. She proven it time
and again in her short term as head of the department, as evidenced by
the number of employees who left rather than deal with Hill.
Her
return to the Department of Education is bad for the department, bad for
Wyoming education, and hence bad for Wyoming's children.
The Constitutionality of the Legislature's statute always seemed questionable to me, which doesn't say anything about Hill one way or another.  As for Hill, the Legislature recently undertook hearings on her conduct in which employees of the Department of Education testified against her, and the Legislature is considering impeaching her.  Employees of the department are now justifiably concerned over what her return means.  Hill is running for governor in an almost certainly doomed quixotic bid for that office.  This reprieve, while perhaps brief, gives her the opportunity to show that she can effectively and rationally run this office, but it will require her to have much different personal leadership behavior than she had before.

Right about the time that Wyoming's politics really started to become peculiar with populist influence.


President Obama, a central figure in that evolution, in that his Presidency helped ignite some dark latent forces in the American electorate in reaction, delivered his State of the Union address:
Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, my fellow Americans:

Today in America, a teacher spent extra time with a student who needed it, and did her part to lift America’s graduation rate to its highest level in more than three decades.

An entrepreneur flipped on the lights in her tech startup, and did her part to add to the more than eight million new jobs our businesses have created over the past four years. 

An autoworker fine-tuned some of the best, most fuel-efficient cars in the world, and did his part to help America wean itself off foreign oil.

A farmer prepared for the spring after the strongest five-year stretch of farm exports in our history.  A rural doctor gave a young child the first prescription to treat asthma that his mother could afford.  A man took the bus home from the graveyard shift, bone-tired but dreaming big dreams for his son.  And in tight-knit communities across America, fathers and mothers will tuck in their kids, put an arm around their spouse, remember fallen comrades, and give thanks for being home from a war that, after twelve long years, is finally coming to an end.

Tonight, this chamber speaks with one voice to the people we represent: it is you, our citizens, who make the state of our union strong.

Here are the results of your efforts:  The lowest unemployment rate in over five years.  A rebounding housing market.  A manufacturing sector that’s adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s.  More oil produced at home than we buy from the rest of the world – the first time that’s happened in nearly twenty years.  Our deficits – cut by more than half.  And for the first time in over a decade, business leaders around the world have declared that China is no longer the world’s number one place to invest; America is.

That’s why I believe this can be a breakthrough year for America.  After five years of grit and determined effort, the United States is better-positioned for the 21st century than any other nation on Earth.

The question for everyone in this chamber, running through every decision we make this year, is whether we are going to help or hinder this progress.  For several years now, this town has been consumed by a rancorous argument over the proper size of the federal government.  It’s an important debate – one that dates back to our very founding.  But when that debate prevents us from carrying out even the most basic functions of our democracy – when our differences shut down government or threaten the full faith and credit of the United States – then we are not doing right by the American people.

As President, I’m committed to making Washington work better, and rebuilding the trust of the people who sent us here.  I believe most of you are, too.  Last month, thanks to the work of Democrats and Republicans, this Congress finally produced a budget that undoes some of last year’s severe cuts to priorities like education.  Nobody got everything they wanted, and we can still do more to invest in this country’s future while bringing down our deficit in a balanced way.  But the budget compromise should leave us freer to focus on creating new jobs, not creating new crises.

In the coming months, let’s see where else we can make progress together.  Let’s make this a year of action.  That’s what most Americans want – for all of us in this chamber to focus on their lives, their hopes, their aspirations.  And what I believe unites the people of this nation, regardless of race or region or party, young or old, rich or poor, is the simple, profound belief in opportunity for all – the notion that if you work hard and take responsibility, you can get ahead.

Let’s face it: that belief has suffered some serious blows.  Over more than three decades, even before the Great Recession hit, massive shifts in technology and global competition had eliminated a lot of good, middle-class jobs, and weakened the economic foundations that families depend on.

Today, after four years of economic growth, corporate profits and stock prices have rarely been higher, and those at the top have never done better.  But average wages have barely budged.  Inequality has deepened.  Upward mobility has stalled.  The cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many Americans are working more than ever just to get by – let alone get ahead.  And too many still aren’t working at all.

Our job is to reverse these trends.  It won’t happen right away, and we won’t agree on everything.  But what I offer tonight is a set of concrete, practical proposals to speed up growth, strengthen the middle class, and build new ladders of opportunity into the middle class.  Some require Congressional action, and I’m eager to work with all of you.  But America does not stand still – and neither will I.  So wherever and whenever I can take steps without legislation to expand opportunity for more American families, that’s what I’m going to do. 

As usual, our First Lady sets a good example.  Michelle’s Let’s Move partnership with schools, businesses, and local leaders has helped bring down childhood obesity rates for the first time in thirty years – an achievement that will improve lives and reduce health care costs for decades to come.  The Joining Forces alliance that Michelle and Jill Biden launched has already encouraged employers to hire or train nearly 400,000 veterans and military spouses.  Taking a page from that playbook, the White House just organized a College Opportunity Summit where already, 150 universities, businesses, and nonprofits have made concrete commitments to reduce inequality in access to higher education – and help every hardworking kid go to college and succeed when they get to campus.  Across the country, we’re partnering with mayors, governors, and state legislatures on issues from homelessness to marriage equality.

The point is, there are millions of Americans outside Washington who are tired of stale political arguments, and are moving this country forward.  They believe, and I believe, that here in America, our success should depend not on accident of birth, but the strength of our work ethic and the scope of our dreams.  That’s what drew our forebears here.  It’s how the daughter of a factory worker is CEO of America’s largest automaker; how the son of a barkeeper is Speaker of the House; how the son of a single mom can be President of the greatest nation on Earth. 

Opportunity is who we are.  And the defining project of our generation is to restore that promise.

We know where to start: the best measure of opportunity is access to a good job.  With the economy picking up speed, companies say they intend to hire more people this year.  And over half of big manufacturers say they’re thinking of insourcing jobs from abroad.

So let’s make that decision easier for more companies.  Both Democrats and Republicans have argued that our tax code is riddled with wasteful, complicated loopholes that punish businesses investing here, and reward companies that keep profits abroad.  Let’s flip that equation.  Let’s work together to close those loopholes, end those incentives to ship jobs overseas, and lower tax rates for businesses that create jobs here at home.

Moreover, we can take the money we save with this transition to tax reform to create jobs rebuilding our roads, upgrading our ports, unclogging our commutes – because in today’s global economy, first-class jobs gravitate to first-class infrastructure.  We’ll need Congress to protect more than three million jobs by finishing transportation and waterways bills this summer.  But I will act on my own to slash bureaucracy and streamline the permitting process for key projects, so we can get more construction workers on the job as fast as possible.

We also have the chance, right now, to beat other countries in the race for the next wave of high-tech manufacturing jobs.  My administration has launched two hubs for high-tech manufacturing in Raleigh and Youngstown, where we’ve connected businesses to research universities that can help America lead the world in advanced technologies.  Tonight, I’m announcing we’ll launch six more this year.  Bipartisan bills in both houses could double the number of these hubs and the jobs they create.  So get those bills to my desk and put more Americans back to work.

Let’s do more to help the entrepreneurs and small business owners who create most new jobs in America.  Over the past five years, my administration has made more loans to small business owners than any other.  And when ninety-eight percent of our exporters are small businesses, new trade partnerships with Europe and the Asia-Pacific will help them create more jobs.  We need to work together on tools like bipartisan trade promotion authority to protect our workers, protect our environment, and open new markets to new goods stamped “Made in the USA.”  China and Europe aren’t standing on the sidelines.  Neither should we.

We know that the nation that goes all-in on innovation today will own the global economy tomorrow.  This is an edge America cannot surrender.  Federally-funded research helped lead to the ideas and inventions behind Google and smartphones.  That’s why Congress should undo the damage done by last year’s cuts to basic research so we can unleash the next great American discovery – whether it’s vaccines that stay ahead of drug-resistant bacteria, or paper-thin material that’s stronger than steel.  And let’s pass a patent reform bill that allows our businesses to stay focused on innovation, not costly, needless litigation.

Now, one of the biggest factors in bringing more jobs back is our commitment to American energy.  The all-of-the-above energy strategy I announced a few years ago is working, and today, America is closer to energy independence than we’ve been in decades.

One of the reasons why is natural gas – if extracted safely, it’s the bridge fuel that can power our economy with less of the carbon pollution that causes climate change.  Businesses plan to invest almost $100 billion in new factories that use natural gas.  I’ll cut red tape to help states get those factories built, and this Congress can help by putting people to work building fueling stations that shift more cars and trucks from foreign oil to American natural gas.  My administration will keep working with the industry to sustain production and job growth while strengthening protection of our air, our water, and our communities.  And while we’re at it, I’ll use my authority to protect more of our pristine federal lands for future generations.

It’s not just oil and natural gas production that’s booming; we’re becoming a global leader in solar, too.  Every four minutes, another American home or business goes solar; every panel pounded into place by a worker whose job can’t be outsourced.  Let’s continue that progress with a smarter tax policy that stops giving $4 billion a year to fossil fuel industries that don’t need it, so that we can invest more in fuels of the future that do.

And even as we’ve increased energy production, we’ve partnered with businesses, builders, and local communities to reduce the energy we consume.  When we rescued our automakers, for example, we worked with them to set higher fuel efficiency standards for our cars.  In the coming months, I’ll build on that success by setting new standards for our trucks, so we can keep driving down oil imports and what we pay at the pump.

Taken together, our energy policy is creating jobs and leading to a cleaner, safer planet.  Over the past eight years, the United States has reduced our total carbon pollution more than any other nation on Earth.  But we have to act with more urgency – because a changing climate is already harming western communities struggling with drought, and coastal cities dealing with floods.  That’s why I directed my administration to work with states, utilities, and others to set new standards on the amount of carbon pollution our power plants are allowed to dump into the air.  The shift to a cleaner energy economy won’t happen overnight, and it will require tough choices along the way.  But the debate is settled.  Climate change is a fact.  And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.

Finally, if we are serious about economic growth, it is time to heed the call of business leaders, labor leaders, faith leaders, and law enforcement – and fix our broken immigration system.  Republicans and Democrats in the Senate have acted.  I know that members of both parties in the House want to do the same.  Independent economists say immigration reform will grow our economy and shrink our deficits by almost $1 trillion in the next two decades.  And for good reason: when people come here to fulfill their dreams – to study, invent, and contribute to our culture – they make our country a more attractive place for businesses to locate and create jobs for everyone.  So let’s get immigration reform done this year.

The ideas I’ve outlined so far can speed up growth and create more jobs.  But in this rapidly-changing economy, we have to make sure that every American has the skills to fill those jobs.

The good news is, we know how to do it.  Two years ago, as the auto industry came roaring back, Andra Rush opened up a manufacturing firm in Detroit.  She knew that Ford needed parts for the best-selling truck in America, and she knew how to make them.  She just needed the workforce.  So she dialed up what we call an American Job Center – places where folks can walk in to get the help or training they need to find a new job, or better job.  She was flooded with new workers.  And today, Detroit Manufacturing Systems has more than 700 employees.

What Andra and her employees experienced is how it should be for every employer – and every job seeker.  So tonight, I’ve asked Vice President Biden to lead an across-the-board reform of America’s training programs to make sure they have one mission: train Americans with the skills employers need, and match them to good jobs that need to be filled right now.  That means more on-the-job training, and more apprenticeships that set a young worker on an upward trajectory for life.  It means connecting companies to community colleges that can help design training to fill their specific needs.  And if Congress wants to help, you can concentrate funding on proven programs that connect more ready-to-work Americans with ready-to-be-filled jobs.

I’m also convinced we can help Americans return to the workforce faster by reforming unemployment insurance so that it’s more effective in today’s economy.  But first, this Congress needs to restore the unemployment insurance you just let expire for 1.6 million people.

Let me tell you why.

Misty DeMars is a mother of two young boys. She’d been steadily employed since she was a teenager.  She put herself through college.  She’d never collected unemployment benefits.  In May, she and her husband used their life savings to buy their first home.  A week later, budget cuts claimed the job she loved.  Last month, when their unemployment insurance was cut off, she sat down and wrote me a letter – the kind I get every day.  “We are the face of the unemployment crisis,” she wrote.  “I am not dependent on the government…Our country depends on people like us who build careers, contribute to society…care about our neighbors…I am confident that in time I will find a job…I will pay my taxes, and we will raise our children in their own home in the community we love.  Please give us this chance.”

Congress, give these hardworking, responsible Americans that chance.  They need our help, but more important, this country needs them in the game.  That’s why I’ve been asking CEOs to give more long-term unemployed workers a fair shot at that new job and new chance to support their families; this week, many will come to the White House to make that commitment real.  Tonight, I ask every business leader in America to join us and to do the same – because we are stronger when America fields a full team. 

Of course, it’s not enough to train today’s workforce.  We also have to prepare tomorrow’s workforce, by guaranteeing every child access to a world-class education.

Estiven Rodriguez couldn’t speak a word of English when he moved to New York City at age nine.  But last month, thanks to the support of great teachers and an innovative tutoring program, he led a march of his classmates – through a crowd of cheering parents and neighbors – from their high school to the post office, where they mailed off their college applications.  And this son of a factory worker just found out he’s going to college this fall.

Five years ago, we set out to change the odds for all our kids.  We worked with lenders to reform student loans, and today, more young people are earning college degrees than ever before.  Race to the Top, with the help of governors from both parties, has helped states raise expectations and performance.  Teachers and principals in schools from Tennessee to Washington, D.C. are making big strides in preparing students with skills for the new economy – problem solving, critical thinking, science, technology, engineering, and math.  Some of this change is hard.  It requires everything from more challenging curriculums and more demanding parents to better support for teachers and new ways to measure how well our kids think, not how well they can fill in a bubble on a test.  But it’s worth it – and it’s working. 

The problem is we’re still not reaching enough kids, and we’re not reaching them in time.  That has to change. 

Research shows that one of the best investments we can make in a child’s life is high-quality early education.  Last year, I asked this Congress to help states make high-quality pre-K available to every four year-old.  As a parent as well as a President, I repeat that request tonight. But in the meantime, thirty states have raised pre-k funding on their own.  They know we can’t wait.  So just as we worked with states to reform our schools, this year, we’ll invest in new partnerships with states and communities across the country in a race to the top for our youngest children.  And as Congress decides what it’s going to do, I’m going to pull together a coalition of elected officials, business leaders, and philanthropists willing to help more kids access the high-quality pre-K they need.

Last year, I also pledged to connect 99 percent of our students to high-speed broadband over the next four years.  Tonight, I can announce that with the support of the FCC and companies like Apple, Microsoft, Sprint, and Verizon, we’ve got a down payment to start connecting more than 15,000 schools and twenty million students over the next two years, without adding a dime to the deficit. 

We’re working to redesign high schools and partner them with colleges and employers that offer the real-world education and hands-on training that can lead directly to a job and career.  We’re shaking up our system of higher education to give parents more information, and colleges more incentives to offer better value, so that no middle-class kid is priced out of a college education.  We’re offering millions the opportunity to cap their monthly student loan payments to ten percent of their income, and I want to work with Congress to see how we can help even more Americans who feel trapped by student loan debt.  And I’m reaching out to some of America’s leading foundations and corporations on a new initiative to help more young men of color facing tough odds stay on track and reach their full potential.

The bottom line is, Michelle and I want every child to have the same chance this country gave us.  But we know our opportunity agenda won’t be complete – and too many young people entering the workforce today will see the American Dream as an empty promise – unless we do more to make sure our economy honors the dignity of work, and hard work pays off for every single American. 

Today, women make up about half our workforce.  But they still make 77 cents for every dollar a man earns.  That is wrong, and in 2014, it’s an embarrassment. A woman deserves equal pay for equal work.  She deserves to have a baby without sacrificing her job.  A mother deserves a day off to care for a sick child or sick parent without running into hardship – and you know what, a father does, too.  It’s time to do away with workplace policies that belong in a “Mad Men” episode.  This year, let’s all come together – Congress, the White House, and businesses from Wall Street to Main Street – to give every woman the opportunity she deserves.  Because I firmly believe when women succeed, America succeeds.

Now, women hold a majority of lower-wage jobs – but they’re not the only ones stifled by stagnant wages.  Americans understand that some people will earn more than others, and we don’t resent those who, by virtue of their efforts, achieve incredible success.  But Americans overwhelmingly agree that no one who works full time should ever have to raise a family in poverty.

In the year since I asked this Congress to raise the minimum wage, five states have passed laws to raise theirs.  Many businesses have done it on their own.  Nick Chute is here tonight with his boss, John Soranno.  John’s an owner of Punch Pizza in Minneapolis, and Nick helps make the dough.  Only now he makes more of it: John just gave his employees a raise, to ten bucks an hour – a decision that eased their financial stress and boosted their morale.

Tonight, I ask more of America’s business leaders to follow John’s lead and do what you can to raise your employees’ wages.  To every mayor, governor, and state legislator in America, I say, you don’t have to wait for Congress to act; Americans will support you if you take this on.  And as a chief executive, I intend to lead by example. Profitable corporations like Costco see higher wages as the smart way to boost productivity and reduce turnover. We should too.  In the coming weeks, I will issue an Executive Order requiring federal contractors to pay their federally-funded employees a fair wage of at least $10.10 an hour – because if you cook our troops’ meals or wash their dishes, you shouldn’t have to live in poverty.

Of course, to reach millions more, Congress needs to get on board. Today, the federal minimum wage is worth about twenty percent less than it was when Ronald Reagan first stood here.  Tom Harkin and George Miller have a bill to fix that by lifting the minimum wage to $10.10.  This will help families.  It will give businesses customers with more money to spend.  It doesn’t involve any new bureaucratic program.  So join the rest of the country.  Say yes.  Give America a raise.

There are other steps we can take to help families make ends meet, and few are more effective at reducing inequality and helping families pull themselves up through hard work than the Earned Income Tax Credit.  Right now, it helps about half of all parents at some point.  But I agree with Republicans like Senator Rubio that it doesn’t do enough for single workers who don’t have kids.  So let’s work together to strengthen the credit, reward work, and help more Americans get ahead.

Let’s do more to help Americans save for retirement. Today, most workers don’t have a pension.  A Social Security check often isn’t enough on its own.  And while the stock market has doubled over the last five years, that doesn’t help folks who don’t have 401ks.  That’s why, tomorrow, I will direct the Treasury to create a new way for working Americans to start their own retirement savings: MyRA. It’s a new savings bond that encourages folks to build a nest egg.  MyRA guarantees a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in.  And if this Congress wants to help, work with me to fix an upside-down tax code that gives big tax breaks to help the wealthy save, but does little to nothing for middle-class Americans.  Offer every American access to an automatic IRA on the job, so they can save at work just like everyone in this chamber can.  And since the most important investment many families make is their home, send me legislation that protects taxpayers from footing the bill for a housing crisis ever again, and keeps the dream of homeownership alive for future generations of Americans.

One last point on financial security.  For decades, few things exposed hard-working families to economic hardship more than a broken health care system.  And in case you haven’t heard, we’re in the process of fixing that.

A pre-existing condition used to mean that someone like Amanda Shelley, a physician assistant and single mom from Arizona, couldn’t get health insurance.  But on January 1st, she got covered.  On January 3rd, she felt a sharp pain.  On January 6th, she had emergency surgery.  Just one week earlier, Amanda said, that surgery would’ve meant bankruptcy.

That’s what health insurance reform is all about – the peace of mind that if misfortune strikes, you don’t have to lose everything. 

Already, because of the Affordable Care Act, more than three million Americans under age 26 have gained coverage under their parents’ plans.

More than nine million Americans have signed up for private health insurance or Medicaid coverage.

And here’s another number: zero.  Because of this law, no American can ever again be dropped or denied coverage for a preexisting condition like asthma, back pain, or cancer. No woman can ever be charged more just because she’s a woman.  And we did all this while adding years to Medicare’s finances, keeping Medicare premiums flat, and lowering prescription costs for millions of seniors.

Now, I don’t expect to convince my Republican friends on the merits of this law.  But I know that the American people aren’t interested in refighting old battles.  So again, if you have specific plans to cut costs, cover more people, and increase choice – tell America what you’d do differently.  Let’s see if the numbers add up.  But let’s not have another forty-something votes to repeal a law that’s already helping millions of Americans like Amanda.  The first forty were plenty.  We got it.  We all owe it to the American people to say what we’re for, not just what we’re against. 

And if you want to know the real impact this law is having, just talk to Governor Steve Beshear of Kentucky, who’s here tonight.  Kentucky’s not the most liberal part of the country, but he’s like a man possessed when it comes to covering his commonwealth’s families.  “They are our friends and neighbors,” he said.  “They are people we shop and go to church with…farmers out on the tractors…grocery clerks…they are people who go to work every morning praying they don’t get sick.  No one deserves to live that way.” 

Steve’s right.  That’s why, tonight, I ask every American who knows someone without health insurance to help them get covered by March 31st.  Moms, get on your kids to sign up.  Kids, call your mom and walk her through the application.  It will give her some peace of mind – plus, she’ll appreciate hearing from you. 

After all, that’s the spirit that has always moved this nation forward.  It’s the spirit of citizenship – the recognition that through hard work and responsibility, we can pursue our individual dreams, but still come together as one American family to make sure the next generation can pursue its dreams as well.

Citizenship means standing up for everyone’s right to vote.  Last year, part of the Voting Rights Act was weakened.  But conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats are working together to strengthen it; and the bipartisan commission I appointed last year has offered reforms so that no one has to wait more than a half hour to vote.  Let’s support these efforts.  It should be the power of our vote, not the size of our bank account, that drives our democracy.

Citizenship means standing up for the lives that gun violence steals from us each day.  I have seen the courage of parents, students, pastors, and police officers all over this country who say “we are not afraid,” and I intend to keep trying, with or without Congress, to help stop more tragedies from visiting innocent Americans in our movie theaters, shopping malls, or schools like Sandy Hook.

Citizenship demands a sense of common cause; participation in the hard work of self-government; an obligation to serve to our communities.  And I know this chamber agrees that few Americans give more to their country than our diplomats and the men and women of the United States Armed Forces.

Tonight, because of the extraordinary troops and civilians who risk and lay down their lives to keep us free, the United States is more secure.  When I took office, nearly 180,000 Americans were serving in Iraq and Afghanistan.  Today, all our troops are out of Iraq.  More than 60,000 of our troops have already come home from Afghanistan.  With Afghan forces now in the lead for their own security, our troops have moved to a support role. Together with our allies, we will complete our mission there by the end of this year, and America’s longest war will finally be over.

After 2014, we will support a unified Afghanistan as it takes responsibility for its own future.  If the Afghan government signs a security agreement that we have negotiated, a small force of Americans could remain in Afghanistan with NATO allies to carry out two narrow missions: training and assisting Afghan forces, and counterterrorism operations to pursue any remnants of al Qaeda.  For while our relationship with Afghanistan will change, one thing will not: our resolve that terrorists do not launch attacks against our country.

The fact is, that danger remains.  While we have put al Qaeda’s core leadership on a path to defeat, the threat has evolved, as al Qaeda affiliates and other extremists take root in different parts of the world. In Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Mali, we have to keep working with partners to disrupt and disable these networks. In Syria, we’ll support the opposition that rejects  the agenda of terrorist networks. Here at home, we’ll keep strengthening our defenses, and combat new threats like cyberattacks.  And as we reform our defense budget, we have to keep faith with our men and women in uniform, and invest in the capabilities they need to succeed in future missions.

We have to remain vigilant.  But I strongly believe our leadership and our security cannot depend on our military alone. As Commander-in-Chief, I have used force when needed to protect the American people, and I will never hesitate to do so as long as I hold this office.  But I will not send our troops into harm’s way unless it’s truly necessary; nor will I allow our sons and daughters to be mired in open-ended conflicts.  We must fight the battles that need to be fought, not those that terrorists prefer from us – large-scale deployments that drain our strength and may ultimately feed extremism.

So, even as we aggressively pursue terrorist networks – through more targeted efforts and by building the capacity of our foreign partners – America must move off a permanent war footing.  That’s why I’ve imposed prudent limits on the use of drones – for we will not be safer if people abroad believe we strike within their countries without regard for the consequence.  That’s why, working with this Congress, I will reform our surveillance programs – because the vital work of our intelligence community depends on public confidence, here and abroad, that the privacy of ordinary people is not being violated.  And with the Afghan war ending, this needs to be the year Congress lifts the remaining restrictions on detainee transfers and we close the prison at Guantanamo Bay – because we counter terrorism not just through intelligence and military action, but by remaining true to our Constitutional ideals, and setting an example for the rest of the world.

You see, in a world of complex threats, our security and leadership depends on all elements of our power – including strong and principled diplomacy.  American diplomacy has rallied more than fifty countries to prevent nuclear materials from falling into the wrong hands, and allowed us to reduce our own reliance on Cold War stockpiles.  American diplomacy, backed by the threat of force, is why Syria’s chemical weapons are being eliminated, and we will continue to work with the international community to usher in the future the Syrian people deserve – a future free of dictatorship, terror and fear. As we speak, American diplomacy is supporting Israelis and Palestinians as they engage in difficult but necessary talks to end the conflict there; to achieve dignity and an independent state for Palestinians, and lasting peace and security for the State of Israel – a Jewish state that knows America will always be at their side.

And it is American diplomacy, backed by pressure, that has halted the progress of Iran’s nuclear program – and rolled parts of that program back – for the very first time in a decade.  As we gather here tonight, Iran has begun to eliminate its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium.  It is not installing advanced centrifuges.  Unprecedented inspections help the world verify, every day, that Iran is not building a bomb.  And with our allies and partners, we’re engaged in negotiations to see if we can peacefully achieve a goal we all share: preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

These negotiations will be difficult.  They may not succeed.  We are clear-eyed about Iran’s support for terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, which threaten our allies; and the mistrust between our nations cannot be wished away.  But these negotiations do not rely on trust; any long-term deal we agree to must be based on verifiable action that convinces us and the international community that Iran is not building a nuclear bomb.  If John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan could negotiate with the Soviet Union, then surely a strong and confident America can negotiate with less powerful adversaries today.

The sanctions that we put in place helped make this opportunity possible.  But let me be clear: if this Congress sends me a new sanctions bill now that threatens to derail these talks, I will veto it.  For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed.  If Iran’s leaders do not seize this opportunity, then I will be the first to call for more sanctions, and stand ready to exercise all options to make sure Iran does not build a nuclear weapon.  But if Iran’s leaders do seize the chance, then Iran could take an important step to rejoin the community of nations, and we will have resolved one of the leading security challenges of our time without the risks of war.

Finally, let’s remember that our leadership is defined not just by our defense against threats, but by the enormous opportunities to do good and promote understanding around the globe – to forge greater cooperation, to expand new markets, to free people from fear and want.  And no one is better positioned to take advantage of those opportunities than America. 

Our alliance with Europe remains the strongest the world has ever known.  From Tunisia to Burma, we’re supporting those who are willing to do the hard work of building democracy.  In Ukraine, we stand for the principle that all people have the right to express themselves freely and peacefully, and have a say in their country’s future.  Across Africa, we’re bringing together businesses and governments to double access to electricity and help end extreme poverty.  In the Americas, we are building new ties of commerce, but we’re also expanding cultural and educational exchanges among young people.  And we will continue to focus on the Asia-Pacific, where we support our allies, shape a future of greater security and prosperity, and extend a hand to those devastated by disaster – as we did in the Philippines, when our Marines and civilians rushed to aid those battered by a typhoon, and were greeted with words like, “We will never forget your kindness” and “God bless America!”

We do these things because they help promote our long-term security.  And we do them because we believe in the inherent dignity and equality of every human being, regardless of race or religion, creed or sexual orientation.  And next week, the world will see one expression of that commitment – when Team USA marches the red, white, and blue into the Olympic Stadium – and brings home the gold.

My fellow Americans, no other country in the world does what we do.  On every issue, the world turns to us, not simply because of the size of our economy or our military might – but because of the ideals we stand for, and the burdens we bear to advance them.

No one knows this better than those who serve in uniform.  As this time of war draws to a close, a new generation of heroes returns to civilian life.  We’ll keep slashing that backlog so our veterans receive the benefits they’ve earned, and our wounded warriors receive the health care – including the mental health care – that they need.  We’ll keep working to help all our veterans translate their skills and leadership into jobs here at home.  And we all continue to join forces to honor and support our remarkable military families.

Let me tell you about one of those families I’ve come to know.

I first met Cory Remsburg, a proud Army Ranger, at Omaha Beach on the 65th anniversary of D-Day.  Along with some of his fellow Rangers, he walked me through the program – a strong, impressive young man, with an easy manner, sharp as a tack.  We joked around, and took pictures, and I told him to stay in touch.

A few months later, on his tenth deployment, Cory was nearly killed by a massive roadside bomb in Afghanistan. His comrades found him in a canal, face down, underwater, shrapnel in his brain. 

For months, he lay in a coma.  The next time I met him, in the hospital, he couldn’t speak; he could barely move.  Over the years, he’s endured dozens of surgeries and procedures, and hours of grueling rehab every day. 

Even now, Cory is still blind in one eye.  He still struggles on his left side.  But slowly, steadily, with the support of caregivers like his dad Craig, and the community around him, Cory has grown stronger. Day by day, he’s learned to speak again and stand again and walk again – and he’s working toward the day when he can serve his country again. 

“My recovery has not been easy,” he says. “Nothing in life that’s worth anything is easy.” 

Cory is here tonight.  And like the Army he loves, like the America he serves, Sergeant First Class Cory Remsburg never gives up, and he does not quit. 

My fellow Americans, men and women like Cory remind us that America has never come easy.  Our freedom, our democracy, has never been easy.  Sometimes we stumble; we make mistakes; we get frustrated or discouraged.  But for more than two hundred years, we have put those things aside and placed our collective shoulder to the wheel of progress – to create and build and expand the possibilities of individual achievement; to free other nations from tyranny and fear; to promote justice, and fairness, and equality under the law, so that the words set to paper by our founders are made real for every citizen.  The America we want for our kids – a rising America where honest work is plentiful and communities are strong; where prosperity is widely shared and opportunity for all lets us go as far as our dreams and toil will take us – none of it is easy.  But if we work together; if we summon what is best in us, with our feet planted firmly in today but our eyes cast towards tomorrow – I know it’s within our reach. 

Believe it.

God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.
A major winter storm hit the South East United States.