Showing posts with label Ukrainian Army. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukrainian Army. Show all posts

Friday, April 26, 2024

Well darn.

For fools rush in where angels fear to tread.

Distrustful sense with modest caution speaks,

It still looks home, and short excursions makes;

But rattling nonsense in full volleys breaks,

And, never shocked, and never turned aside,

Bursts out, resistless, with a thundering tide.

Alexander Pope.

Mess mates.  Taken in a tent, in South Korea.

Yes, it was foolish.

Hello!

Unfortunately, the cut off age for enlistment in the Armed Forces of Ukraine is 60. Therefore we will not be able to process your application.
But we are grateful for your support and willingness to sacrifice for Ukraine and our brothers in arms.
It means a lot to us, truly.

Even if you cannot fight with us in Ukraine's fields and forests, please keep supporting Ukraine in whatever way you can and see suitable.

Best Regards,
Korvin
Recruitment Department
International Legion for the Defense of Ukraine
https://ildu.com.ua

And I was trained to hold back the Red Horde and everything.

Yes, it's foolish.  

Yes, I could get killed.  Indeed, I'd guess the chances of my getting killed, given my age, and that I've never been a speedy person (although not an out of shape one) are better than not.

But, with my Congressional representation doing what it can in order to see young Wyomingites get killed in Eastern Europe, well, maybe I could do something to make up for what they're doing.

Wednesday, August 9, 2023

Спокій вічний дай їм, Господи, і світло вічне нехай їм світить. Нехай їхні душі та душі всіх покійних вірних, через милосердя Боже, спочивають з миром.

Амінь.

The Ukrainian combat medic Daria Filipieva has been killed in battle against the Russian Army. Rest in Peace Hero
Image

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 6. Late Spring.


June 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Some sort of Ukrainian offensive has started in southern Ukraine and in the Donetsk region.

The Russians have breached the Kakhovka dam within the territory they hold, probably as part of an effort to flood the battlefield.

June 7, 2023

Apparently, the breaching of the subject dam flooded Russian positions and carried some Russian soldiers off to their deaths.

June 8, 2023

The Ukrainian spring offensive has begun.

June 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has been tight-lipped with information regarding the offensive, but it is now known that there have been advances in the south-eastern portion of the country and some villages have been liberated from Russian control, including Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, They also continue to advance around Bakhmut.

Sudanese Civil War

Fighting resumed in the capital yesterday.

June 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian partisans destroyed a train carrying diesel fuel near Mariupol.  

The reservoir drained by Russian action has drained to the point where bodies of Soviet and German soldiers from the Second World War have been revealed.

June 13, 2023, cont.

Russian source are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is in Tokmak which, if true, puts them 63 km, or 40 miles, from Mariupol.  40 miles is a long way in military terms, but it that is true, and it may very well not be, Ukrainians are well on their way towards isolating Crimea.

Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed yesterday by a Ukrainian missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia region.

June 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

An odd comment from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov:

Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.

This could be an example of random verbal slip ups, but it could also signal an intent to declare victory and go home in some fashion.

Having said that, there's now real reason to worry that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a failure.   The Ukrainian Army is advancing, but quite slowly.  Both sides are taking heavy casualties.

June 23, 2023

Russia Civil War?

This is odd:

Wagner Chief Says Russian Military Launched Strikes on His Camps, Vows Retaliation

Perhaps the age-old lesson about why using mercenaries is a bad idea is being played out here.

Or perhaps the age-old lesson about not betraying your mercenaries is being played out here.

June 23, 2023, cont

Russian media is now terming the Wagner group's actions a "revolt" by its leader, and are urging Wagner troops to arrest him.

This is either the end of Wagner or the beginning of a really messy episode in Russia.

June 23, cont

Wagner forces and Russian Army forces are now fighting in Rostov On Don.

June 24, 2023

Russian Civil War

Putin made a broadcast appeal for Wagner to end its rebellion, without naming them by name.  Translated by the Washington Post, which published the short address in full, it concludes:

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.

The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unparalleled mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

This leaves Prigozhin now way out.

Wagner forces have been seen convoying north, as far north, as Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast. That's halfway between Rostov and Moscow.

June 24, cont:

Moscow's mayor has declared Monday a day off and urged workers not to report to work Monday.

Putin's airplane departed Moscow, but it is not known who is on board it.

One report, goodness knows how reliable it is or isn't, has the police in Moscow pondering which side to land on, as they don't have the resources to oppose an actual military force.

Wow. Shades of Russia 1917, or is it Germany, July 44?

June 25, 2023

Wagner Uprising/Russo Ukrainian War

This bizarre drama seems to have played out.

Wagner mercenary chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces only yesterday were advancing unimpeded on Moscow, and who shot down seven Russian aircraft along the way, and who seemed set to depose Putin, struck a deal with the modern Czar in which his forces return, more or less to barracks, and he takes up exile in Belarus.

He better sleep with one eye open.

There's been utterly nothing like this whatsoever in modern times.

His forces that remain under arms will enter the Russian Army.

The U.S. was apparently aware of the intended uprising before it occurred and had informed Kyiv. While it demonstrated that there'rs nothing in the Russian rear, Ukraine does not appear to have been able to take advantage of the situation.

June 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

June 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports hold that the Ukrainian Army has crossed the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.

Some Wagner troops are being redeployed to Belarus.  This is not insignificant and may signal how Putin put down the rebellion.  Wagner troops may now be committed to that region, in preparation for offensive actions from the north.  It's worth remembering that Prigozhin complained earlier on that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough in Ukraine, and Putin has been trying to get Belarus to commit to the war.

ISW, on this, reports:

Some Wagner Group forces may follow Prigozhin to Belarus. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 26 that Belarusian authorities are constructing several new camps to house the Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and that the construction of a 24,000 square kilometer base for 8,000 Wagner Group fighters is already underway in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast.[7] The location of a Wagner Group base in Asipovichy does not pose an immediate threat against Ukraine; Asipovichy is about 200 kilometers from Belarus’ international border with Ukraine, and the establishment of new Wagner Group bases in Gomel or Brest oblasts on the border with Ukraine would be much more alarming. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may seek to use the Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters to balance against a longstanding Russian effort to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, though the extent to which Lukashenko can successfully co-opt Prigozhin or refuse a potential Russian extradition demand for Prigozhin or Wagner fighters in Belarus remains unclear. Prigozhin’s personal whereabouts remain unclear as of June 26, though some unconfirmed reports suggest that he is in the “Green City Hotel” in western Minsk City.[8]

Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so.[9] Putin’s acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.[10]

ISW's take on this is definitely different, noting that this would be a refuge for Prigozhin loyalist.  For that matter, Wagner, which has operations in Africa, needs to retain a base, as does Prigozhin.

Prigozhin may be facing loyalty problems himself now, as troops that followed him are now denouncing him, having been led into a rebellion, and now feeling abandoned.

Putin, having avoided ending up a target on the Kremlin's wall, is talking tough about Wagner leadership and loyalist again, once again branding them traitors.  It's almost certain that senior Wagner leadership will end up dead, as will Prigozhin, if our first speculation isn't correct. Even if it is, they may ultimately end up dead anyway.  Prigozhin is now playing up his loyalty to Putin.  ISW's view on the situation is that Putin's rupture with Prigozhin is complete.

June 28, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Leaked US intelligence holds that senior Russian military figures were aware of Prigozhin's coup attempt and may have supported it in varying degrees.

This is an indication that this story really hasn't played out yet.  If that's correct, those figures need to decide if they'll accept the fate of those who support failed coups, or if the effort to replace Putin is still on.  If significant numbers of senior Russian officers have cast their lot with Prigozhin, they could likely still pull off a change in government.

ISW reports that Belarus brokered the settlement with the goal of taking in Wagner troops as a hedge against Russia. The thesis that Belarus' seeks to avoid through pressure what Ukraine is resisting through military force, inclusion into Russia.

Ukrainian airborne has retaken some territory which was taken by the Russians in 2014.

June 29, 2023

Russian Civil War

General Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general, was arrested yesterday for his role in supporting the attempted coup.

June 30, 2023

Chinese Balloon

The US has concluded that the balloon did not gather intelligence over its flight over the U.S.

Frankly, I'm skeptical as to that conclusion, but that's the conclusion.

Russian Civil War/Russo Ukrainian War

A second Russian general,Valery Gerasimov, has disappeared, and the Russians are questioning pilots who refused to fire on Wagner forces.

Newsweek ran an op ed by author Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, and a former DIA intelligence officer, which asserts that the coup was a false flag operation designed to bolster Putin's status in the face of an upcoming election and to reposition Wagner troops in Belarus.

This now seems unlikely.  One of the arguments she makes in favor of her argument is that the entire episode was hopelessly weird, which is quite true, but much of Russian history is likewise hopelessly weird.  What other nation would see its army stand by while its leader committed mass murder of its leadership?

Ukrainian troops are praising the qualities of the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle.

Ukraine claims to have seized the "strategic initiative" near Bakhmut.

Syrian Civil War

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23

There is further speculation that Iran may begin to participate in this mater on the Syrian government side.

If so, Russia is really playing with fire.  Iranian long term goals don't match Russia's at all. 

It's also an interesting example of how a really second rate army can still be a major force where the other forces are third rate.\

July 2, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Belorussian rebels report the construction of camps at a former military facility 140 miles from the Ukrainian border, which would appear to be for Wagner troops.

July 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports taking back 14.4 Square miles this past week. Slow-going is partially due to heavy Russian use of mines.

Israel/Palestinians

Israeli forces launched a large military operation in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.

July 5, 2023

Israel/Palestinians

Israel pulled its forces back out of Jenin, but warned such raids could happen again in the future.

July 6, 2023

Russian Civil War

Wagner's troops have remained in their camps in Russia and its leader was sited in St. Petersburg, all of which is quite odd under the circumstances.

US v. ISIL

Russian jets harassed U.S. drones targeting ISIL.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have made significant tactical gains around Bakhmut.

The Russians have deployed Russian almost the entire Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine.  This would mean that either they anticapte a massive Ukrainian effort shortly, or they have sustained so many losses that they are now in the effective position of committing all of their reserves.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina


Related threads:


Wednesday, June 14, 2023

Ack. War reporting by people who know nothing about the military. Armored losses in Ukraine.

 


Stars and Stripes cartoon by Bill Mauldin.  Large numbers of M4 Sherman's were lost in World War Two, even though the now underrated tank was well liked by every army that used it.  Same with T-34s, the best tank of World War Two, and the same with the much heralded series of German tanks of the late war period.  Tanks get destroyed in combat.

I've been seeing some headlines like this:

Russia releases video of captured German and U.S. tanks

Indeed, I saw one just this morning along these lines, asserting that President Biden was embarrassed by the Russian "capture" of American and German tanks.

Sigh.

Leopard 2.

The Russians have destroyed some Leopard 2s. Frankly, this is no surprise to me, as I don't regard the Leopard 2 as a particularly good tank, although I don't think it's a bad tank either, and have already said as much here.  I suspect, but certainly don't know, that part of the German reluctance to supply Leopard 2s to Ukraine is that they'd turn out to be vulnerable for this reason.  I noted quite awhile ago that the Turks withdrew Leopard 2s in some areas of Syria in favor of older American made tanks (and I also urged here that those older tank designs be supplied to Ukraine).

The Leopard 2 does have a very good gun system.

The Russians seem to have captured at least one Leopard 2.

The also destroyed some Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicles, which is absolutely nobody's idea of a tank, at least not anybody with any knowledge of armored vehicles.

M2 Armored Fighting Vehicle.

That some M2 Armored Fighting Vehicles would be destroyed or captured was inevitable and really no big deal in and of itself.  It's an armored personnel carrier, basically, and they are always vulnerable as they are not heavily armored.  It's an exceptionally capable armored personnel carrier, but not a tank.

The Ukrainians destroyed a Russian T-90M the other day. It's the most advanced Russian tank.

And this is also no big deal.  It's one tank.

And here's the thing 

A lot of armor gets destroyed in a peer to peer conflict.  The Russians have lost an inordinate number of tanks. . . quite a few to other Russian tanks in Ukrainian service.  That's significant.  The Ukrainians have lost some Leopard 2s and they will lose more.  Right now, those losses aren't significant, but if they become numerous, they will be, which may point to one or more things if it occurs.

If they lose M1 Abrams, even a handful, that will be significant.

Same with British Challengers, and South Korean K2s.

And that's because all three of those tanks are first-rate modern battle tanks, whereas, in my view, the Leopard 2 is second or third rate.

And, another thing.  Ukraine is attempting a peer to peer offensive against an army larger than its own, without Ukraine having air superiority.  That's hard in and of itself. There's no guaranty that they'll pull it off.  We should hope they do, but victory, and certainly not cheap quick victory, is not assured.  The Ukrainians were begging for F16s, which they ultimately received, but probably too late to be of real use.  

We probably see why now.  In order to really be assured of advancing, they need air superiority.  We should have supplied them with F16s earlier.  And we likely should have supplied them with A10s as well.  If A10s, a lot of which are now on maneuvers in Europe, are too vulnerable to be used in Ukraine, they're certain not a viable NATO weapon now in any event.

So where are we at?

We don't know.  Offensives do not move at the speed of Le Mans.  This offensive could be proceeding at the pace that it should.  But the Ukrainians face a tough strategic and tactical situation.  They need to gain a lot of ground in this offensive in order for it to matter.  And they might not be able to, even if they gain ground.  If they don't, that may be just because of the situation they faced, or may be because they were left resource short.

Hopefully that will not be the case.

Friday, May 26, 2023

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVII. Aging, Russian military culture, Cinematic explortation of the 60s and 70s, The King of Canada.


Older America.

The median age of Americans is now 38.8, a figure brought up from last decade's 37.2 due to the obvious advance in aging of the Baby Boomers and the decline in the birth rate.

This is not a surprise, nor a disaster, contrary to how it seems to be sometimes portrayed.  The median will obviously advance into the 40s shortly.

This brings up this next item, from the Adam Smith blog:

Older World

Fertility rates and the conflict with the liberal vision

That headline wouldn't seem to make sense at first, but it actually does in context.

One of the things that people are wringing their hands about is the declining birth rate all over the world.

This brings up piles of incorrect analysis and ignored facts.  In the short term, by which we mean very short term, you can find plenty of pundits, often of the environmentalist inclination, still giving Malthusian warnings that we're about to breed ourselves into oblivion.  In fact, the data shows that in most regions of the glob, the trend is reversing, and in some very much reversed.

Which brings up the next example of hand wringing.   Conservatives at first, but now liberals as well, are worried about the demographic death of entire societies.  Some countries are now at the point where they're doing something that hasn't been done for eons, which is to take official measures to encourage couples to have children.

The Adam Smith institution isn't worked about it. They state:

This past century has included glorious events - the economic liberation of women for one. The result of that freedom and liberty is fewer children. Oh well, that’s just what humans want to do with their freedom and liberty.

It’s therefore the politics that needs to change, nothing else. For the people have spoken in their most intimate acts and decisions.

It might well be true that some don’t like that aggregate result, the society that results from freedom. But bully for the complaint, not the acts.

And there's a lot to that statement.

Frankly, almost all the angst over declining birth rates is misplaced.  Some of it isn't, but much of it is.  We're about to enter an era in which there will be much reduced employment in advanced societies, for one thing. Another is that frankly, societies with smaller populations are much nicer to live in, something that politicians in the US don't seem to grasp.  Lots of countries passed the level in which they were really nice to live in some time ago, including for that matter much of the US.  An overall declining population reverses that.

And it doesn't cause economic disaster, as so often predicted.  

At any rate, no matter how a person feels about it, what Adam Smith notes is in fact the case.  Reversing the trend at the present time is darned near impossible.  I think it will reverse, or stabilize, but not during my lifetime.  Probably when, for example, Europe reaches an overall population below 200,000,000, and North America's is about the same.   That's quite a ways off.

I'm not commenting, I'd note, on the moral aspects of this, which is in fact an aspect of it. But in an era in the West, at least, that large sections of the population can no longer actually tell what is naturally male and female, and we're back to the era in which "science" supports a societal movement that's wrong, much like it once did with Eugenics, race science, and many other now despised movements of the past that claimed scientific basis, we're probably not going to see much progress in this area, whatever progress would mean.

Speaking of a country with a declining population, and a tradition of baby bonuses, we have Russia, which gives us this. . . 

Field Wife

Not really a surprise.

'Field Wife': Officers Make Life Hell For Women In Russia's Military, A Female Medic Says

As with all things Russian military, pretty horrific, but with long-standing precedence in the Russian military.

We have a long paused thread on women in armed forces which will be unpopular, but we'd start off with this.  Mistreatment of women in any military is very common.  The conditions are prefect for it.

They're also perfect for giving rise to temptations that are hard to address and are embarrassing to address when they arise.  The U.S. Armed Forces have been working on this for decades, presenting it mostly as a male abuser on female victim situation, which is large true, but it wasn't all that long ago that the Marines had to come in and order female Marines to quit posting nude photos of themselves on line, such as a photo of a group of female Marines stationed in the Middle East running on a beach naked.  Everyone knows where this is going.

Suffice it to say, the circumstances of military life.  In spite of ongoing American hagiography about servicemen, Kipling's 1890 poem Tommy remains just as true for U.S. troops on some things, including this:

We aren't no thin red 'eroes, nor we aren't no blackguards too, 

But single men in barricks, most remarkable like you; 

An' if sometimes our conduck isn't all your fancy paints, 

Why, single men in barricks don't grow into plaster saints; 

This doesn't excuse the conduct, but eradicating it would require eradicating the situation, which we're not going to do.

And we aren't the Russians. The Russians aren't going to do any such thing with their military.

The recent war in Ukraine has shown, to a very large degree, that the Russian Army is the Red Army, and the Red Army was an overrated armed gang for parts of its history, and just overrated when that wasn't true.  It was an armed gang in the immediate post Civil War period, and certainly during the Second War.  Its aura of greatness was heavily impacted by Soviet propaganda.  In reality, rape was a common thing once it crossed out of Soviet territory and the taking of "field wives" very common.  So much so that it was a major source of domestic strife in the post-war Soviet Union, as men's actual wives knew that their husbands had engaged in both behaviors.

Believing that your enemy is impressive is wise, but in realty, the Red Army was not all that good in the Cold War, and the Russian Army isn't now.

We'll get back around to the Russian Army momentarily.  Sticking with our current theme. . . 

Exploitation suit dismissed.

I was going to report on this headline some time ago.

Olivia Hussey, then 15 and now 71, and Leonard Whiting, then 16 now 72, filed the suit in Los Angeles County Superior Court alleging sexual abuse, sexual harassment and fraud.

This in regard to their nude scenes in Romeo & Juliet.

They basically alleged that they were told that nudity they posed for would not actually be shown, when Hussey's breasts briefly were, and Whiting's butt was as well, and that they suffered years of shame as a result.  The suit sought punitive damages for an act which was illegal, at the time, under California's law, but which obviously nobody did anything about at the time.  They were asking for $100 million in punitive damages, but theoretically could receive more than $500 million to match what the film has earned since 1968, apparently.

If you are wondering how this could be brought now, California temporarily suspended the statute of limitations for older claims of child sexual abuse, which expired at the end of 2022.

This is an interesting development for a number of reasons.

One is that the nude scenes were noted at the time, but obviously, nothing was done about it.  Indeed, while the scenes noted above are the ones that have been picked up by the press, Hussey's also had at least one scene in which she rolls over while inclined, exposing her full bare back and rear.  At least one poster for the movie depicts an illustration of a nude Hussey on a nude Whiting, although you can't see the generally forbidden features.

This film isn't really unique in this regard.   A little later, but not much, a genuinely shocking scene was included in 1976's Ode To Bobby Joe, which is an overall horrifically bad film, but which had some popularity at the time.  The whole film is incredibly stupid, but it also features a nearly nude scene. The actors were in fact in their majority when it was filmed, but they're portraying, at least in the case of the female lead, underage teenagers.  It's really pretty sick overall.  

And recently, because of her bringing it back up, the public has had the opportunity to ponder the films Pretty Baby and The Blue Lagoon.  Ick.

If nothing else tells us something about the moral depravity of the late 60s and the entire 1970s.

Anyhow, I don't know much about Whiting, but Hussey went on to be a famous actress, somewhat discrediting the claim that they subsequently lost roles.  Indeed, given the moral climate of the late 60s and entire 70s, I doubt it.  Her career actually goes back to 1964, at which time she was very clearly still a child, and she was cast as the Virgin Mary in 1977, when she still would have been quite young.  Interesting, FWIW, her age in Romeo & Juliet would have been closer to what Mary's is speculated to have been at the time of the birth of Jesus, but the point is that her reputation hadn't been so tarnished as to keep her from getting the role of the most significant of all the female saints.

Oddly, FWIW, my high school English teacher, who later was arrested and convicted on what we might call a morals charge, didn't like her portrayal of the Virgin Mary, but did like the portrayal in Romeo & Juliet, in part due to his perception that her depictions in both were juvenile.

I haven't seen Jesus of Nazareth, that latter film, and I've only seen part of Romeo & Juliet.  I don't like Romeo & Juliet, the play, as it strikes me as boring and juvenile, and the parts of the movie I've seen, years ago, struck me as boring at the time.

Hussey also portrayed, Mother Teresa in a 2003 television movie,

Anyway, I feel they were exploited, if they brought their suit to address it a bit late. The California judge did not, stating that they, "have not put forth any authority showing the film here can be deemed to be sufficiently sexually suggestive as a matter of law to be held to be conclusively illegal.”

Too bad, in my view.

Maybe just bringing it to light, however, served an overall good purpose.

Let's go back to topics Slavic.

Where's the offensive?

In much of the Northern Hemisphere, it's late Spring, and we were expecting a Ukrainian offensive.

Well, maybe we'll get one, or maybe not (we probably will), but what seems to be the case is that spring came late to Ukraine, and everything is really muddy.  Therefore, the Rasputitia is still ongoing.

The Ukrainians, in the meantime, are using the time, it appears, to their training and logistical advantage.

Without getting into it too deeply, the Ukrainians also seem to have managed to cause the Russians to fight a 2023 version of the Battle of Khe Sanh.

Speaking of things with a long past. . . 

Charles the Third, by the Grace of God King of Canada and His other Realms and Territories, Head of the Commonwealth.’

Canada has changed the honorifics for the King, or Queen.  

The late Queen was known as ‘Queen Elizabeth the Second, by the Grace of God of the United Kingdom, Canada and Her other Realms and Territories Queen, Head of the Commonwealth, Defender of the Faith.

Changing the titles of people in this fashion says something.  And in this case, not something good.

Last prior edition:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist. XLVI . To what extent is that new?

Wednesday, May 10, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 4. Бездоріжжя

April 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Бездоріжжя, mud season.

It stopped fighting on the Eastern Front during World War Two, and it bogged down the Russians last year in Ukraine. 

We ought to be in it now.

The much feared Russian spring offensive was a flop.  Much of the intense fighting took place in and around Bakmut, which is now effectively destroyed, but in spite of a titanic efforts, including the expenditure of many Wagner Group lives, it still isn't fully in Russian hands.  Russia is dragging early Cold War armor out of storage while the Ukrainian army is taking receipt of new Western armor.

Everyone expects a Ukrainian offensive in the near term. That may determine the outcome of the war.

A not too surprising item on the Russian forces:


April 7, 2023

Israel v. Hamas

Hamas fired rockets into Israel from Lebanon yesterday, and Israel retaliated with air strikes.

United States v. Taliban

The U.S. released its report on the withdrawal from Afghanistan:


Israel v. Hamas

Events repeated as six more rockets were fired from Syrian territory towards Israel, only two of which entered Israeli territory.  Israel responded with artillery fire, then an air strike.  Hamas is indicating it intends to deescalate the situation.

China v. Taiwan

China has been menacing the Taiwanese coasts with aircraft in the modern version of saber-rattling, upset by Speaker McCarthy's visit to Taiwan.

April 10, 2023

Pope Francis addressed the Russo Ukrainian War and the situation involving the Isreali's and Palestinians in an Easter homily.

Russo Ukrainian War

The US and Ukraine are dealing with leaked Pentagon information, which seems to be genuine, on the war in Ukraine and discussing a wide range of topics.

The Department of Justice has opened up an investigation on leaks from U.S. intelligence, which apparently provides information on Ukrainian and Russian forces, as well as information regarding some U.S. allies.

April 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

For some days now, the news has been circulating that: 
The US and Ukraine are dealing with leaked Pentagon information, which seems to be genuine, on the war in Ukraine and discussing a wide range of topics.

The Department of Justice has opened up an investigation on leaks from U.S. intelligence, which apparently provides information on Ukrainian and Russian forces, as well as information regarding some U.S. allies.

I haven't discussed here what those reports reveal, as it hasn't been very clear to me.  By and large, most of the information I've seen related to the leaks simply confirms news that had already been circulating, something that; 1) makes you wonder to what extent this was leaking before, and 2) makes you wonder if this is really a deception campaign. 

Indeed, on the latter, the Ukrainians have been remarkably adept at keeping their own plans secret.  Having said that, this would be a U.S. leak and Americans are phenomenally bad at keeping anything secret, which is one of the reasons the theory that the US has been keeping details of extraterrestrials secret for eighty years is absurd. We couldn't have kept that secret for thirty days.

Anyhow, more recent news stories have stated a couple of things that are of interest and haven't really been revealed before, and they're worth mentioning.

One is that the US is under equipping the Ukrainians.  We've put a lot of military hardware in their hands, but we have yet to make use of the Lend Lease bill that Congress passed and really get them everything we could.  As a result, there are real reasons to doubt that they could mount a successful Spring offensive.  And in some areas, we desperately undersupply them in critical weapons.

Another is a host of NATO armies do have boots on the ground, including the U.S.  The numbers are minuscule, with the country with the most, the UK, having less than 20 at any one time.

These are no doubt advisers, and I'd frankly wondered.  It makes sense that they'd be there, and now we know that they are.

A video is circulating of Russian soldiers beheading captured members of the Ukrainian Foreign Legion.  On the video, they can be heard saying "mercenaries".

April 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Washington Post reports the intelligence news leaks came from Thug Shaker Central Discord server and the person releasing them is a member, "OG", who works for U.S. intelligence in some capacity.

April 13, cont.

A1C Jack Teixeira, 21 years of age and a member of the Massachusetts Air National Guard, was arrested in connection with the intelligence leaks described above.

April 16, 2023

Sudan

Sudanese government and paramilitary forces have been engaged in heavy fighting in the nation's capital over the past couple of days.

Russo Ukrainian War

The war is beginning to have peculiar domestic impacts inside of Russia.

A debate over migration from Central Asia has commenced, with backers wanting to nearly triple immigration into Russia to stabilize a crashing population. This has sparked a reaction in that opponents are accusing the backers of wanting to basically sell out Russians to Central Asian cultures.

In the meantime, advertisements are now appearing on Russian television for Russian women to move to China as brides.

Russia is introducing conscription via electronic notices.

April 23, 2023

Sudan

The U.S. Embassy staff has been evacuated from Sudan and civilians are leaving the country.

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have crossed the Dnipro near Kherson.

The Russian military is attempting to pressure Putin to go to defensive operations.

Russian authorities are oppressing Catholics in occupied areas, most recently occupying the Church of the Nativity of the Blessed Virgin Mary in occupied Berdyansk, accusing the priests there of hiding weapons.

April 24, 2023

Sudan

The US and UK airlifted their embassy staffs out of the country in military operations.

April 25, 2023

Sudan

Rival factions vying for control of the country, mostly through fighting in its capital Khartoum, have agreed to a US brokered three day ceasefire.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine apparently had planned deep strikes inside of Russia on the anniversary of the invasion of the country, including on Moscow, but were restrained from doing so by the US.

Such an effort would likely have been a waste of munitions and only served to unite Russians more completely behind Putin.

April 30, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

A Russian ship that carries rescue submarines was photographed near the location of the Nord Stream gas pipeline prior to its explosion last September.

Hmmm. . . 

Ukrainian drones hit a Russian fuel depot in Crimea.

Sudan

The U.S. has evacuated private citizens from Sudan.

There's been some medial criticism that the US hasn't treated the situation in Sudan the same way it has the war in Ukraine. But how would it?  Intervene in a civil war?

May 2, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US believes that the Russians have sustained100,000 causalities, including 80,000 wounded and 20,000 killed, in the Battle of Bakhmut.  Half of the 20,000 dead were Wagner Group troops.

May 3, 2023

United States/Mexican Border

Not a war, but the US will deploy 1,500 troops on the border as Covid era emergency restrictions come off.

This is a topic for another post, but the problems with illegal immigration across the border are something the US just hasn't had the stomach or foresight to really deal with. Given the level of illegal immigration, and its deep existential nature, the time to do so, if its not going to amount to simply ordering the border and fundamentally changing the nature of the country by giving up on having any immigration controls at all, is right now.

Russo Ukrainian War

Trains have been targeted by blown rails in Crimea the last two days, a classic sabotage, resistance move, although in this instance it appears to be via drones.

May 4, 2023

Russian Ukrainian War

The Kremlin was attacked, oddly and ineffectively, by two drones. The respected ISW suspects this was a Russian false flag operation.

May 5, 2023

Russian Ukrainian War

Russia asserted the absurd hypothesis that the US was behind the drone strikes on the Kremlin.

More and more Russia looks like the gang that couldn't shoot straight.

The leader of the mercenary Wagner Group claimed he is pulling his troops out of Bakhmut next week.  A feud between the group and the Russian forces over supplies has been running for several days.

May 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

It appears that the Wagner Group will pull out of Bakhmut and that it will be replaced by Chechens.

At this point, the Wagner Group may have been effectively eliminated as a fighting force. 

Chechens haven't really been put to the test, but it's worth noting that dissident Chechens are already fighting for Ukraine.

May 11, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia had a much scaled down Victory Day celebration, that annual event in which Russia pretends the USSR single-handedly defeated its former ally Nazi Germany. This year's event featured a single tank, that being a World War Two vintage T-24.  Putin delivered a speech in which he acted as if the attempted rape of Ukraine was a war against the entire West, and the West's fault.

This parade does point out something we've noted before, that being that one of Russia's great liabilities in the modern era is believing that it won World War Two.  It did not.  Nor did the USSR do it single-handedly.  In reality, the USSR fought with millions of men who were not Russian, along with millions of Russians, most of whom were conscripted, and whom signficant numbers of which deserted and defected to the Nazis in spite of all that the Nazis fought for.  Moreover, this would have been a good parade to thrown an American made Sherman or British made Churchill tank into, sybolizing the extent to which the Soviets were saved by Western Allied materials.

Putin may imagine himself at war with the West, or state it as propganda, but in reality, the Soviets were Allies of Western fascism in the form of Nazism, until attacked by it, at which point they were saved, in no small part, by the Western democracies.

Wagner Group head Yevgeny Prigozhin used the occasion to mock Putin, which is a bit surprising, even though Prigozhin has been outspoken in his discontent.  Indeed, I'd regard it as dangerous even if Russian forces need Wagner's wholly disposable troops. Those troops, however, are now not going to be withdrawn from Bakhmut, that whole episode apparently being theater of some sort.

Russia has been engaging in large-scale missile attacks on Ukraine.  Drone attacks are being attempted as well, but Ukraine is having a lot of success in shooting drones down.


Related threads:


Tuesday, March 7, 2023

The Truth About Russia’s AK-12 - is it over hyped?


A video on the AK 12 made just prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The AK 12 is the newest, 5.45, version of the AK-47 and it's commonly seen in Russian hands.  It's also now not infrequently seen in Ukrainian hands, although most Ukrainians are armed with AKMs or AK-74s.  Frankly, in spite of early efforts to really overhaul it, it's basically an AK-74 with Picitinny rails which allows it to accept optics more easily.

According to this, the intended Russian optics are bad, which would be typical for Russian optics.

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Six

M577 howitzers in Ukraine.  The British designed howitzer has been supplied to the Ukrainian forces by the United States, Canada and Australia.  It is arguably the best towed artillery piece in the world.  By Arsen Fedosenko - https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/309101904718635, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=117964601

May 24, 2022

Yes, part six.  In a normal year, there's one version of this all year long.  This year, thanks to Russia forgetting that it's not 1945, we're in the sixth installment.

Which is to say that the war in Ukraine has caused the massive ongoing expansion of this thread.

Okay, situation wise, where are we?

Here's the history of the war to date, in the map that demonstrates the Russian advance. . . and retreat.


By MaitreyaVaruna & Bacon Noodles - Own work derived from File:2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.svg, originally by ViewsridgeItself derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115563226

Even now, what the initial Russian objects were remains clouded. The best guess is that Putin, seeing Ukraine headed towards increased alignment with the West, including culturally, economically, and formally, determined to intervene when he could before the opportunity evaporated.  The only thing that was keeping Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO was the ongoing war over the Donbas, stretching back to 2014.

After four years of Donald Trump's oddly pro Russian administration, in which US aid and support of Ukraine was done largely against Trump's will, Putin may also have thought that this period of time provided an added window, or again the only available opportunity.  Whatever the case, a decade of Western military training and support of Ukraine's military, provided in no small part by US National Guard units, had radically altered the nature of the Ukrainian military, making it a modern Western one.  Russia's, however, remained the poor army based on massed men with bad tactics and no NCO corps that it has been since 1917.  Drunk on the myth of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, in which the Russians have been taught that the Red Army accomplished this largely on its own, and equipped with inferior weaponry, the Russians believed that they'd roll over Ukraine in just a few days.  At that point, they likely would have simply incorporated all of Ukraine back into a Russian Empire, or perhaps taken much of the eastern half of the country and left a satellite rump state in the West.

Instead, a  highly trained and motivated Ukrainian Army stopped them in their tracks to a large degree, and then began to reduce the Russians, who proved to be deployed ineptly and to fight just as poorly, in place.  As this occurred, the West, led by President Biden, rallied to Ukraine and began to supply it with weapons.  Had Donald Trump been President, this would not have occurred.

The weaponry supplied to Ukraine at first was mostly in the nature of Soviet pattern weaponry that former members of the Warsaw Pact retained, matching what Ukraine already used.  Included in what they were receiving, however, were Western anti tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which proved to be absolutely devastating.  Even early on, some Western small arms came in, however.  Now, as Ukraine has regained the ground in the north that it lost, much more in the way of Western equipment is coming in, including Western artillery.  Supplies to Ukraine are increasing in lethality, as the West has gone from small arms, ammunition and missiles, to larger weapons systems.

 Russia has proven unable to deal with any of this.  Speculation that it would overcome the Ukrainians in the north proved completely in error.  Taking the city of Mariupol took weeks, assuming that it even has really been fully taken now.  Speculation that withdrawing from the north meant forces would redeploy in the east failed to take into account that Russian forces have been so downgraded that many units have been reduced to ineffectual.

Economic boycotts of Russia are wrecking the Russian economy and may be approach a point where that will beyond repair.  Efforts to replenish and resupply Russian forces have failed.  Open criticism of Russian military performance inside of Russia, by pro-government persons and entities, has started to increase.  An organization of retired Russian officers has called for a full declaration of war combined with mobilization, something that the Russians probably can't pull off now.  Ukraine has been open that its war aim now is to recover all of the land lost in the 2014 Russian invasion.


Russia's actions have managed to unite the West to a degree it hasn't been in decades.  Its military is discredited in every sense, including morally.  How this ends is now being discussed openly, but no matter how it ends, it will be some species of Russian defeat.

May 26, 2022

Moscow has raised the age limit, previously 40, to 50, in which volunteer for service in the Russian army.

May 26, 2022, cont.

Governor Gordon Thanks Law Enforcement Personnel for Ukraine Donations

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –  Governor Gordon has extended his appreciation to members of Wyoming’s law enforcement community for donating used equipment to assist the people of Ukraine.

Coordinated by the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, the statewide effort involved outreach to multiple agencies across the state. The effort resulted in the donation of more than 200 interior and exterior ballistic vests; panels that can be used to assemble an additional 80 vests; rifle plates for the vests; helmets and boots. In addition, six pallets of medical-grade wipes were donated.

“I want to thank law enforcement in Wyoming for stepping up and providing this needed equipment for the Ukrainian people,” Governor Gordon said.

Donations came from across the state, including Albany, Carbon, Converse and Sublette County Sheriff’s Offices; police departments in Glenrock, Powell, Rock Springs, Sheridan and Torrington; Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation; Wyoming Highway Patrol; and the Wyoming Livestock Board.

-END-

May 28, 2022

Russian forces have been trying to take Severodonetsk, but they've failed to encircle the city and their progress has been slow.  They have, however, entered part of the city.

They've also been countering a Ukrainian offensive attempt to reclaim Kherson.

Ukrainian partisans units are now operating in the South in areas occupied by the Russians.

May 30, 2022

The Russians, back up by artillery, have been attempting a direct assault of Severodonetsk, abandoning the envelopment strategy they had been deploying.

Orthodoxy in Ukraine saw a split in loyalties before the war commenced, with the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church seeking, and receiving, recognition from the head of the Greek Orthodox Church of autocephalous status.  When that occurred, the Russian Orthodox Church, which it had been part of, refused to recognize that.  Now, that portion of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which remained loyal to the Russian Metropolitan declared its full independence.

This is a confusing situation because if it is independent, its position seemingly now matches that of the larger portion of the church was severed from Moscow prior to the war.

June 1, 2022

The EU has agreed to mostly end oil imports from Russia by the end of the year.

The Russians have largely taken Severodonetsk, but at the same time the Ukrainians are doing well near Kherson.

Belorussia is releasing stores of military equipment to Russia.

Some Russian recruitment centers in Russia have been subjected to attacks by Russians.

June 4, 2022

In spite of dire predictions, fighting goes on in Severondonetsk.  Indeed, it seems Ukrainian units backfilled areas taken by the Russians after they were through then.  They appear largely stalled almost everywhere.

After repeated pleas for them, the US is indicating it will supply four HIMARS systems to Ukraine.

Note, it's only four.


The system is incredibly advanced and accurate.  It's replaced heavy artillery, along with other similar rocket systems in the US inventory.

The rockets are GPS guided, which results in an interesting open additional step for the U.S. in that U.S. satellites are now openly and obviously part of Ukrainian targeting, or will soon be.

June 6, 2022

Russia has hit Kyiv with missiles again, striking a railway repair station.

Russian Maj. Gen Roman Kutuzov was killed in action.

A Ukrainian counter-attack has taken back parts of Severodonetsk.

June 10, 2022

The Russians are in fact deploying T-62s in Ukraine, a tank first introduced in 1961, a tank that is generally regarded as having been outclassed by the British Chieftain and the American M60 shortly after its introduction.  They are also pulling mines out of storage that were manufactured in the 1950s, and 152mm howitzers and MRLS systems that were in storage and are of older models.

Front lines have been nearly static.

June 16, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

Fighting remains fairly static and in fact is still going on in Severondonetsk. Ukraine has desperately been asking for more artillery.

Ikea is selling its Russian factories.

War On ISIL

A U.S. ground raid in Syria today resulted in the capture of a senior ISIL leader.

June 17, 2022

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania committed to not requiring Ukraine to terms to end the war.  In effect, this is a pledge of unconditional support.

Up to three American volunteers have been reported missing in action in Ukraine.

June 18, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Commander of Russian Airborne Forces Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov has been relieved of his command due to the poor performance of Russian airborne forces in the war.

Afghanistan.

A terrorist attack in Kabul targeted a Sikh temple.

June 24, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine has ordered its forces to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk

Ukraine has been approved as a candidate for membership in the EU, the Russian war effort therefore having brought about one of the very things Putin hoped to prevent.  Obtaining membership will require Ukraine to meet a set of conditions, including an ongoing committement to democracy and rooting out entrenched corruption in the government.

The Russian Navy has been ordered to mine Ukraine's Black Sea ports.

Ukraine has pummeled installations on Snake Island.

June 28, 2022

Russia has defaulted in its debt, the first time a major country has done so since 1918.

A Russian missle strike hit a shopping mall in Kremenchuk.

Russian manpower shortages have run up against a Russian desire to avoid a general mobilization, which is interesting in that there's nothing other than public opinion that really precludes the Russians calling one.  They're obviously reluctant to do so, as it would of course mean that they're have a difficult time with a much smaller neighbor.

June 28, 2022, cont

Statement by President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö on 28 June 2022

Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
Press release 41/2022
28 June 2022

Today in Madrid, before the beginning of the NATO Summit, we had a thorough meeting with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, facilitated by Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.

As a result of that meeting, our foreign ministers signed a trilateral memorandum which confirms that Türkiye will at the Madrid Summit this week support the invitation of Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO. The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the NATO Allies during the next two days, but that decision is now imminent.

Our joint memorandum underscores the commitment of Finland, Sweden and Türkiye to extend their full support against threats to each other’s security. Us becoming NATO Allies will further strengthen this commitment.

Over the past weeks, Türkiye has raised its concerns over the threat of terrorism. Finland has constantly taken these concerns seriously. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. As a NATO member, Finland will commit fully to the counterterrorism documents and policies of NATO.

As we enhance our cooperation on counterterrorism, arms exports and extraditions, Finland naturally continues to operate according to its national legislation.

I am delighted to conclude this stage on Finland’s road to NATO membership. I now look forward to fruitful conversations on Finland’s role in NATO with our future Allies here in Madrid.

June 30, 2022

The big overall news is that the way is now clear for NATO membership for Finland and Sweden to go to the member countries parliaments for approval, with approval almost assured.

In large part, Russia launched this war to keep Ukraine from entering the EU and then later joining NATO.  During the war its drawn close to both, and now NATO has expanded.

Russia has withdrawn from Snake Island, which it took early in the war.   The island likely never had any strategic value to their war effort and overall they more than paid for taking it.

July 3, 2022

Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk, allowing the Russians to take the city.

July 7, 2022

No doubt expressing frustration with the NATO support to Ukraine, lead by the United States, a Putin ally threatened that Russia may seek to "take back" Alaska.

The war itself was static yesterday, perhaps expressing a Russian pause, probably by necessity, after recent gains.

July 15, 2022

Russia is looking at procuring drones from Iran.

Russia is also conducting a largescale recruiting drive for volunteer battalions raised for the war, and from its federal regions.  This is interesting in that they're not really conventional soldiers in the Russian Army, but sort of regional volunteers.  

Russia has been having trouble raising manpower for the war, and it hsa been unwilling to formally mobilize for various reasons.

July 22, 2022

In an extremely unusual wartime deal, Russia and Ukraine both entered into agreements with the UN and Turkey which allow for grain exports from the region as well Russian fertilizer to safely leave Black Sea ports.

While neutrals intervening on freedom of commerce and freedom of the seas to allow such things to happen has happened in the past, warring parties agreeing to such an arrangment is extremely unusual.

July 27, 2022

Current state of the war according to the British Ministry of Defense:


The Russians seem to be trying to consolidate their gains in the Donbas region prior to attempting to annex it. The Ukrainians are trying to take it back against heavy odds.

July 28, 2022

Ukraine has used percision U.S. missles to wipe out the use of the Antonivskyi Bridge across the Dnieper River.  The .9 mile long structure was used by the Russians to supply their forces at Kherson.

Russia launched massive missle strikes against Ukrainian targets yesterday, including Kyiv.

The Russians are down to only two ground offensive operations as they apparently not able to sustain more.  They're also importing non Russian workers into the Donbas due to Ukrainian civil resistance to going back to work in the region.

August 3, 2022
  • China/Taiwan
Red China is conducting military maneuvers in a childish reaction to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.

Senior US figures have visited Tawian before, but not for 25 years.  In the intervening quarter century China's ecnomic importance has risen dramatically, something which was exposed due to COVID 19 shortages, but overall the country is much weaker than generally supposed, or than it itself figues.  It has started, in all regards, to act much in the same way that late stage Imperial Germany did.
  • Afghanistan/Al Qaida
The United States killed a senior Al Qaeda leader who had particiapted in the 9/11 attacks by way of a drone strike inside of Aghanistan.

The US of course withdrew from the country in 2021, but still asserts the right to strike Al Qaeda and other figures who are operating within the country.

August 3, cont:

The U.S. Senate voted 95 to 1 to admit Finland and Norway to NATO.

Josh Hawley, Missouri, cast the only note vote.

ugust 5, 2022
  • China/Taiwan
Taking a childish page out of North Korea's temper tantrum cartoon book, China fired missiles yesterday to show that they're feeling upset and that they have missiles, this of course following Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.
  • Russo Ukrainian War
A Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson Oblast, southern Ukraine, has caused Russia to halt its offensive operations and redeploy troops in the south and Crimea.  This is pretty ample proof of Russia's inability to conduct multiple operations at one time, and of their fear that the Ukrainian offensive may start regaining lost ground.

Russia has been shelling near a Ukrainian nuclear power plant which is the largest in Europe, repeating its earlier stupidity from a different nuclear site earlier in the war.

Power use restrictions have been going into place in Europe due to the withdrawal of Russian petroleum.

August 6, 2022
  • China/Taiwan
China has cut cooperation with the United States over a host of issues, including climate change, due to its pique over Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.

North Korea entered the game and is also criticizing the US over the same matter, which of course is of little importance as North Korea is pretty much universally irrelevant except as a regional menace.

Speaking of North Korea. . . 
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
North Korea has offered Russia 100,000 troops to fight in Ukraine.  It's been noted that this would mean that Russia would have to feed 100,000 North Koreans that North Korea has trouble doing.

I doubt Russia will take this offer up as it would probably be more trouble than it would be worth, in spite of the infusion of 100,000 men.  If it does, the North Koreans will principally be cannon fodder.

A top Russian researcher on hypersonic weapons has been arrested for high treason.
  • Israel/Gaza
Israel launched airstrikes into Gaza to address threats it states its identified.  Retaliation came in the form of missile strikes.

August 8, 2022
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
Putin has apparently relieved three senior Russian generals from their commands within the past week.
  • Israel/Gaza
The parties have entered into a truce which seems to be holding.

August 9, 2022

Russia is believed to have sustained over 80,000 casualties in Ukraine so far, of which reportedly 42,000 have been killed.

In comparison, the Russians lost around 15,000 men in their war in Afghanistan.

The U.S. is sending an additional $1B in weapons to Ukraine.

August 12, 2022

Russia has been recruiting from its prison system for soldiers, offering them the end of their prison terms if they will enlist in the Russian army to fight in Ukraine.  

It is also mobilizing, or putting on a war time footing, its defense industry.

August 14, 2022

A news report holds that Ukrainian partisan action is increasing in occupied areas.

Ukraine whiped out another bridge that was vital to the Russians resupplying their troops at Kherson.

August 15, 2022

The Russians are attempting to take Donestk.

August 16, 2022

The Russian Army has left 20,000 troops stranded on the western bank of the Dnipro due to a withdrawal made necessary by Ukrainian action near Kherson.

August 17, 2022

Apparent partisan action or commando action set off a Russian ammo dump in Crimea.

August 21, 2022
  • Somalia
Al-Sabab seized a hotel in Mogodeshu which has now been retaken by Somalian security forces which in turn freed over 100 captives that were seized by the Islamic militants in the raid.

If there's any good news in this it would be that Somalia is sufficiently organized now so as to have security forces.
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.

August 23, 2022

Ukraine has announced that 9,000 of its troops have died in the war so far.

August 24, 2022
  • United States/Islamic militants
The U.S. conducted an air strike on Iranian backed militants in Syria after a recent drone attack on an installaation the U.S. uses in Syria.
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
Russia has placed approximately 1,000 children, presumably orphaned in some fashion, with Russian adoptive familes.  Relocating children with the intent to destroy their culture is defined as genocide.

Reluctance by the residents of Luhansk to continue to fight in the Russian war has caused Russia to deploy sercurity forces to the oblast.

August 29, 2022
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.
A new Russian anti Putin Russian organization has taken credit for this attack.

August 30, 2022

Ukraine has launched an offensive in the Kherson Oblast.

The move was expected, and publicly announced yesterday.  It may determine the results of the war.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Five


Recent related threads: