Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts

Sunday, October 8, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part IX, Late Summer.



September 15, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Vasily Popov, commander of the Russian 247th Guard Air Assault Regiment, was killed in a counter-attack in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia area.

The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Belarusian President Lukashenko as complicit in Russian crimes and called upon the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for his arrest.

The Duma proposed blocking WhatsApp as part of the Kremlin’s effort to control the Russian information space. 

cont:

Pro Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is critically ill.

September 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka near Bakhmut.

September 19, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Six Ukrainian deputy defense ministers were fired on Monday as part of an ongoing cleanup of corruption in the Ukrainian defense department.

Post Soviet Union Ukraine has been plagued with corruption, as has post Soviet Union Russia.  This is no surprise, as the Soviet system encouraged corruption by its very nature, and so that post Soviet societies would feature a lot of it is to be expected.

Ironically, this fact has led opponents of supporting Ukraine, which is democratic and is fighting a just fight, to cite the corruption as a reason to allow the country to be conquered by Russia, although they don't put it that way.  While the country has featured a lot of corruption, Russia's is now endemic and currently not only that case, but watching modern Russia is a lot like watching Goodfellas in real time.

Following 2013's Euromaiden protest, the country has moved increasingly towards the west and has had a strong desire to join the European Union and NATO.  That is what has, in no small part, brought the current war about, as Putin, a Russian nationalist at heart, is opposed to that and sees Ukraine as a mere Russian province.  Efforts to join NATO have lead to a list of further items Ukraine must address in order to do so, once the war is over, and cleaning up corruption will no doubt continue.

The ISW is giving praise to Ukrainian offensive efforts near Bakhmut, which it cites as having kept Russian forces committed in that area, leaving the Russians unable to reinforce further south.  It's reporting that Russian forces in both areas are suffering severe degradation.

Iran v. Kurds

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed unis to the border with Iraq in an effort to put pressure on Iraq to arrest Kurdish efforts in Iran.

Iran messes heavily in regional conflicts, taking an active pro-government role in Syria for example.  Here, however, the war in Syria and the conclusion of the war in Iraq has led to Kurdish semi autonomy, which has in turn lead to Kurdish activity in northern Iran.

cont:

Azerbaijan v. Armenia

Azerbaijan’s declared an “anti-terrorist” campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is under Armenian control. Armenian media indicated air raid sirens and mortar fire in the regional capital of Stepanakert had been observed.

Armenian forces recently trained with U.S. forces.

September 21, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Prime Minister of Poland has announced; "We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons".

Poland and Ukraine have been in a dispute over grain, which has been flooding the Polish market as Ukraine's ports have been blocked, even while Poland has been a major supporter of Ukraine's war effort.

In spite of the way it's been portrayed, historically Poland and Ukraine have not gotten along and following World War One fought over their respective borders.  During World War Two, Ukrainian nationalist militias committed acts of genocide against Polish villagers.  The recent Polish support of Ukraine may reflect Polish animosity towards Russia as much as anything else.

U.S. Senator Rand Paul, who is a libertarian with isolationist tendencies, is holding up the most recent funding for Ukraine.

What both of these stories point out is that the slow moving progress of the Ukrainian offensive, while receiving support from some analysts such as those from the ISW, presents real problems in terms of ongoing Western support.  Ukraine's strategy, from those supporting it, is reputed to be a slow moving offensive using artillery to attrit Russian forces, made necessarily in part by a lack of air assets.  That may be correct, but if it is, Ukraine may find itself with decreasing material support from the West including the United States should the U.S. far right gain in Congress.

Wagner is withdrawing from Syria.

Cont: 

German Marder AFV, some of which appear to be beyond prepared Russian lines.

Ukrainian light armor appears to have pushed through Russian lines near Bakhmut, which would be significant, if substantial and correct.  Indeed, the fact that there are reports of this is significant as it would suggest Russian forces must be very downgraded in the area.

American Stryker AFV, some of which have also been reported having passed Russian prepared defenses.

September 22, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was killed today by a Ukrainian missile/drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet's Sevastopol headquarters.

September 23, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland walked back its earlier statement about not transferring arms to Ukraine, indicating that what was meant that new arms it is acquiring for itself will not be transferred.

September 24, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

According to ISW, the Ukrainian Army has broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. This is not, however, the final Russian defensive line.

September 25, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove appear to be close to surrounding the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka.

September 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported on September 25 that a precision Ukrainian strike on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on September 22 killed 34 Russian officers, including BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov.

Azerbaijan v. Armenia

Armenia effectively surrendered, and the subject enclave will be abandoned.  Armenia is blaming Russia for its peacekeeping forces being ineffective.

US v. ISIL

The U.S. announced the capture of ISIL official Abu Halil al-Fad'ani in a raid in northern Syria.

September 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was in fact not killed on the Ukrainian missile strike on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet.

A Russian drone strike cut the ferry ties between Ukraine and Romania.

September 30, 2023

Armenia v. Azerbaijan

Almost the entire population of the ethnic Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabakh, some 100,000 people, have since Azerbaijan seized the region last week.

October 1, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The emergency stopgap bill to fund the U.S. government for 45 days omits funds for Ukraine.

October 5, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian drone attacks now occur inside of Russia daily.  Two Russian cargo jets were destroyed at the Russian air base at Pskov yesterday, with the Russians claiming that the attacks were launched from inside of Russian territory.

Ukrainians have carried out a second commando raid on Crimea.  The Russian navy has pulled out of Sevastopol and dispersed.

October 6, 2023

Syrian Civil War

A drone attack on a military graduation ceremony in the Syrian Homs, killed 80 and wounded 240.  Some civilians were amongst the casualties.

China v. Everyone

A Chinese nuclear submarine is reported to have been caught in a Chinese submarine net last December, resulting in its sinking and the loss of the entire crew.

October 7, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Hamas launched a large scale offensive against Israel yesterday, sending both ground forces and rockets across the border.  Israel has termed it a war and has called up reservists.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has deployed snipers overseas against Wagner forces.

October 8, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Belarusian leader Lukashenko stated to newsmen last week, "I have to say that Zelensky is acting absolutely appropriately", a surprising statement from a Russian ally.

Hamas v. Israel

Russia bizarrely called for a ceasefire between the warring parties.

Civilian casualties are about equal so far, each standing at about 250 persons.  Hamas took hostages back into Israel.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part VIII. The high cost of freedom.

Friday, September 29, 2023

Wednesday, September 29, 1943. Jeep.

US mascot on Guadalcanal, "Jeep", on a Navy Jeep.  September 29, 1943.

Marshall Badoglio officially signed the Italian instrument of surrender on board the HMS Nelson.  It stated:

INSTRUMENT OF SURRENDER OF ITALY

Whereas in consequence of an armistice dated September 3rd, 1943, between the United States and the United Kingdom Governments on the one hand and the Italian Government on the other hand, hostilities were suspended between Italy and the United Nations on certain terms of a military nature;

And whereas in addition to those terms it was also provided in the said Armistice that the Italian Government bound themselves to comply with other conditions of a political, economic and financial nature to be transmitted later;

And whereas it is convenient that the terms of a military nature and the said other conditions of a political, economic and financial nature should without prejudice to the continued validity of the terms of the said Armistice of September 3rd, 1943, be comprised in a further instrument;

The following together with the terms of the Armistice of September 3rd, 1943, are the terms on which the United States and United Kingdom Governments acting on behalf of the United Nations are prepared to suspend hostilities against Italy so long as their military operations against Germany and her Allies are not obstructed and Italy does not assist these Powers in any way and complies with the requirements of these Governments.

These terms have been presented by GENERAL DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER, Commander-in-Chief, Allied Forces, duly authorised to that effect;

And have been accepted by MARSHAL PIETRO BADOGLIO, Head of the Italian Government.

1.

(A) The Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces wherever located, hereby surrender unconditionally.


(B) Italian participation in the war in all Theaters will cease immediately. There will be no opposition to landings, movements or other operations of the Land, Sea and Air Forces of the United Nations. Accordingly, the Italian Supreme Command will order the immediate cessation of hostilities of any kind against the Forces of the United Nations and will direct the Italian Navy, Military and Air Force authorities in all Theaters to issue forthwith the appropriate instructions to those under their Command.


(C) The Italian Supreme Command will further order all Italian Naval, Military and Air Forces or authorities and personnel to refrain immediately from destruction of or damage to any real or personal property, whether public or private.

2.

The Italian Supreme Command will give full information concerning the disposition and condition of all Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces, wherever they are situated and of all such forces of Italy's Allies as are situated in Italian or Italian occupied territory.

3.

The Italian Supreme Command will take the necessary measures to secure airfields, port facilities, and all other installations against seizure or attack by any of Italy's Allies. The Italian Supreme Command will take the necessary measures to insure Law and Order, and to use its available armed forces to insure prompt and exact compliance with all the provisions of the present instrument. Subject to such use of Italian troops for the above purposes, as may be sanctioned by the Allied Commander-in-Chief, all other Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces will proceed to and remain in their barracks, camps or ships pending directions from the United Nations as to their future status and disposal. Exceptionally such Naval personnel shall proceed to shore establishments as the United Nations may direct.

4.

Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces will within the periods to be laid down by the United Nations withdraw from all areas outside Italian territory notified to the Italian Government by the United Nations and proceed to areas to be specified by the United Nations. Such movement of Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces will be carried out in conditions to be laid down by the United Nations and in accordance with the orders to be issued by them. All Italian officials will similarly leave the areas notified except any who may be permitted to remain by the United Nations. Those permitted to remain will comply with the instructions of the Allied Commander-in-Chief.

5.

No requisitioning, seizures or other coercive measures shall be effected by Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces or officials in regard to persons or property in the areas notified under Article 4.

6.

The demobilization of Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces in excess of such establishments as shall be notified will take place as prescribed by the Allied Commander-in-Chief.

7.

Italian warships of all descriptions, auxiliaries and transports will be assembled as directed in ports to be specified by the Allied Commander-inChief and will be dealt with as prescribed by the Allied Commander-in-Chief. ( Note. If at the date of the Armistice the whole of the Italian Fleet has been assembled in Allied ports, this article would run-"Italian warships of all descriptions, auxiliaries, and transports will remain until further notice in the ports where they are at present assembled, and will be dealt with as prescribed by the Allied Commander-in-Chief." )

8.

Italian aircraft of all kinds will not leave the ground or water or ships, except as directed by the Allied Commander-in-Chief.

9.

Without prejudice to the provisions 14, 15 and 28 (A) and (D) below, all merchant ships, fishing or other craft of whatever flag, all aircraft and inland transport of whatever nationality in Italian or Italian-occupied territory or waters will, pending verification of their identity and status, be prevented from leaving.

10.

The Italian Supreme Command will make available all information about naval, military and air devices, installations, and defences, about all transport and inter-communication systems established by Italy or her allies on Italian territory or in the approaches thereto, about minefields or other obstacles to movement by land, sea or air and such other particulars as the United Nations may require in connection with the use of Italian bases, or with the operations, security, or welfare of the United Nations Land, Sea or Air Forces. Italian forces and equipment will be made available as required by the United Nations for the removal of the above mentioned obstacles.

11.

The Italian Government will furnish forthwith lists of quantities of all war material showing the location of the same. Subject to such use as the Allied Commander-in-Chief may make of it, the war material will be placed in store under such control as he may direct. The ultimate disposal of war material will be prescribed by the United Nations.

12.

There will be no destruction of nor damage to nor except as authorized or directed by the United Nations any removal of war material, wireless, radio location or meteorological stations, railroad, port or other installations or in general, public or private utilities or property of any kind, wherever situated, and the necessary maintenance and repair will be the responsibility of the Italian authorities.

13.

The manufacture, production and construction of war material and its import, export and transit is prohibited, except as directed by the United Nations. The Italian Government will comply with any directions given by the United Nations for the manufacture, production or construction and the import, export or transit of war material.

14.

(A) All Italian merchant shipping and fishing and other craft, wherever they may be, and any constructed or completed during the period of the present instrument will be made available in good repair and in seaworthy condition by the competent Italian authorities at such places and for such purposes and periods as the United Nations may prescribe. Transfer to enemy or neutral flags is prohibited. Crews will remain on board pending further instructions regarding their continued employment or dispersal. Any existing options to repurchase or re-acquire or to resume control of Italian or former Italian vessels sold or otherwise transferred or chartered during the war will forthwith be exercised and the above provisions will apply to all such vessels and their crews.

(B) All Italian inland transport and all port equipment will be held at the disposal of the United Nations for such purposes as they may direct.

15.

United Nations merchant ships, fishing and other craft in Italian hands wherever they may be (including for this purpose those of any country which has broken off diplomatic relations with Italy) whether or not the title has been transferred as the result of prize court proceedings or otherwise, will be surrendered to the United Nations and will be assembled in ports to be specified by the United Nations for disposal as directed by them. The Italian Government will take all such steps as may be required to secure any necessary transfers of title. Any neutral merchant ship, fishing or other craft under Italian operation or control will be assembled in the same manner pending arrangements for their ultimate disposal. Any necessary repairs to any of the above mentioned vessels will be effected by the Italian Government, if required, at their expense. The Italian Government will take the necessary measures to insure that the vessels and their cargo are not damaged.

16.

No radio or telecommunication installations or other forms of intercommunication, shore or afloat, under Italian control whether belonging to Italy or any nation other than the United Nations will transmit until directions for the control of these installations have been prescribed by the Allied Commander-in-Chief. The Italian authorities will conform to such measures for control and censorship of press and of other publications, of theatrical and cinematograph performances, of broadcasting, and also of all forms of intercommunication as the Allied Commander-in-Chief may direct. The Allied Commander-in-Chief may, at his discretion, take over radio, cable and other communication stations.

17.

The warships, auxiliaries, transports and merchant and other vessels and aircraft in the service of the United Nations will have the right freely to use the territorial waters around and the air over Italian territory.

18.

The forces of the United Nations will require to occupy certain parts of Italian territory. The territories or areas concerned will from time to time be notified by the United Nations and all Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces will thereupon withdraw from such territories or areas in accordance with the instructions issued by the Allied Commander-in-Chief. The provisions of this article are without prejudice to those of article 4 above. The Italian Supreme Command will guarantee immediate use and access to the Allies of all airfields and Naval ports in Italy under their control.

19.

In the territories or areas referred to in article 18 all Naval, Military and Air installations, power stations, oil refineries, public utility services, all ports and harbors, all transport and all intercommunication installations, facilities and equipment and such other installations or facilities and all such stocks as may be required by the United Nations will be made available in good condition by the competent Italian authorities with the personnel required for working them. The Italian Government will make available such other local resources or services as the United Nations may require.

20.

Without prejudice to the provisions of the present instrument the United Nations will exercise all the rights of an occupying power throughout the territories or areas referred to in article 18, the administration of which will be provided for by the issue of proclamations, orders or regulations. Personnel of the Italian administrative, judicial and public services will carry out their functions under the control of the Allied Commander-in-Chief unless otherwise directed.

21.

In addition to the rights in respect of occupied Italian territories described in articles 18 to 20,

(A) Members of the Land, Sea or Air Forces and officials of the United Nations will have the right of passage in or over non-occupied Italian territory and will be afforded all the necessary facilities and assistance in performing their functions.

(B) The Italian authorities will make available on non-occupied Italian territory all transport facilities required by the United Nations including free transit for their war material and supplies, and will comply with instructions issued by the Allied Commander-in-Chief regarding the use and control of airfields, ports, shipping, inland transport systems and vehicles, intercommunication systems, power stations and public utility services, oil refineries, stocks, and such other fuel and power supplies and means of producing same, as United Nations may specify, together with connected repair and construction facilities.

22.

The Italian Government and people will abstain from all action detrimental to the interests of the United Nations and will carry out promptly and efficiently all orders given by the United Nations.

23.

The Italian Government will make available such Italian currency as the United Nations may require. The Italian Government will withdraw and redeem in Italian currency within such time limits and on such terms as the United Nations may specify all holdings in Italian territory of currencies issued by the United Nations during military operations or occupation and will hand over the currencies withdrawn free of cost to the United Nations. The Italian Government will take such measures as may be required by the United Nations for the control of banks and business in Italian territory, for the control of foreign exchange and foreign commercial and financial transactions and for the regulation of trade and production and will comply with any instructions issued by the United Nations regarding these and similar matters.

24.

There shall be no financial, commercial or other intercourse with or dealings with or for the benefit of countries at war with any of the United Nations or territories occupied by such countries or any other foreign country except under authorisation of the Allied Commander-in-Chief or designated officials.

25.

(A) Relations with countries at war with any of the United Nations, or occupied by any such country, will be broken off. Italian diplomatic, consular and other officials and members of the Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces accredited to or serving on missions with any such country or in any other territory specified by the United Nations will be recalled. Diplomatic and consular officials of such countries will be dealt with as the United Nations may prescribe.

(B) The United Nations reserve the right to require the withdrawal of neutral diplomatic and consular officers from occupied Italian territory and to prescribe and lay down regulations governing the procedure for the methods of communication between the Italian Government and its representatives in neutral countries and regarding communications emanating from or destined for the representatives of neutral countries in Italian territory.

26.

Italian subjects will pending further instructions be prevented from leaving Italian territory except as authorised by the Allied Commander-in-Chief and will not in any event take service with any of the countries or in any of the territories referred to in article 25 (A) nor will they proceed to any place for the purpose of undertaking work for any such country. Those at present so serving or working will be recalled as directed by the Allied Commander-in-Chief.

27.

The Military, Naval and Air personnel and material and the merchant shipping, fishing and other craft and the aircraft, vehicles and other transport equipment of any country against which any of the United Nations is carrying on hostilities or which is occupied by any such country, remain liable to attack or seizure wherever found in or over Italian territory or waters.

28.

(A) The warships, auxiliaries and transports of any such country or occupied country referred to in article 27 in Italian or Italian-occupied ports and waters and the aircraft, vehicles and other transport equipment of such countries in or over Italian or Italian-occupied territory will, pending further instructions, be prevented from leaving.

(B) The Military, Naval and Air personnel and the civilian nationals of any such country or occupied country in Italian or Italian-occupied territory will be prevented from leaving and will be interned further instructions.

(C) All property in Italian territory belonging to any such country or occupied country or its nationals will be impounded and kept in custody pending further instructions.

(D) The Italian Government will comply with any instructions given by the Allied Commander-in-Chief concerning the internment, custody or subsequent disposal, utilisation or employment of any of the above mentioned persons, vessels, aircraft, material or property.

29.

Benito Mussolini, his Chief Fascist associates and all persons suspected of having committed war crimes or analogous offenses whose names appear on lists to be communicated by the United Nations will forthwith be apprehended and surrendered into the hands of the United Nations. Any instructions given by the United Nations for this purpose will be complied with.

30.

All Fascist organizations, including all branches of the Fascist Militia (MVSN), the Secret Police (OVRA), all Fascist youth organizations will insofar as this is not already accomplished be disbanded in accordance with the directions of the Allied Commander-in-Chief. The Italian Government will comply with all such further directions as the United Nations may give for abolition of Fascist institutions, the dismissal and internment of Fascist personnel, the control of Fascist funds, the suppression of Fascist ideology and teaching.

31.

All Italian laws involving discrimination on grounds of race, color, creed or political opinions will insofar as this is not already accomplished be rescinded, and persons detained on such grounds will, as directed by the United Nations, be released and relieved from all legal disabilities to which they have been subjected. The Italian Government will comply with all such further directions as the Allied Commander-in-Chief may give for repeal of Fascist legislation and removal of any disabilities or prohibitions resulting therefrom.

32.

(A) Prisoners of war belonging to the forces of or specified by the United Nations and any nationals of the United Nations, including Abyssinian subjects, confined, interned, or otherwise under restraint in Italian or Italian-occupied territory will not be removed and will forthwith be handed over to representatives of the United Nations or otherwise dealt with as the United Nations may direct. Any removal during the period between the presentation and the signature of the present instrument will be regarded as a breach of its terms.

(B) Persons of whatever nationality who have been placed under restriction, detention or sentence (including sentences in absentia) on account of their dealings or sympathies with the United Nations will be released under the direction of the United Nations and relieved from all legal disabilities to which they have been subjected.

(C) The Italian Government will take such steps as the United Nations may direct to safeguard the persons of foreign nationals and property of foreign nationals and property of foreign states and nationals.

33.

(A) The Italian Government will comply with such directions as the United Nations may prescribe regarding restitution, deliveries, services or payments by way of reparation and payment of the costs of occupation during the period of the present instrument.

(B) The Italian Government will give to the Allied Commander-in-Chief such information as may be prescribed regarding the assets, whether inside or outside Italian territory, of the Italian state, the Bank of Italy, any Italian state or semi-state institutions or Fascist organizations or residents in Italian territory and will not dispose or allow the disposal, outside Italian territory of any such assets except with the permission of the United Nations.

34.

The Italian Government will carry out during the period of the present instrument such measures of disarmament, demobilization and demilitarisation as may be prescribed by the Allied Commander-in-Chief.

35.

The Italian Government will supply all information and provide all documents required by the United Nations. There shall be no destruction or concealment of archives, records, plans or any other documents or information.

36.

The Italian Government will take and enforce such legislative and other measures as may be necessary for the execution of the present instrument. Italian military and civil authorities will comply with any instructions issued by the Allied Commander-in-Chief for the same purpose.

37.

There will be appointed a Control Commission representative of the United Nations charged with regulating and executing this instrument under the orders and general directions of the Allied Commander-in-Chief.

38.

(A) The term "United Nations" in the present instrument includes the Allied Commander-in-Chief, the Control Commission and any other authority which the United Nations may designate.

(B) The term "Allied Commander-in-Chief" in the present instrument includes the Control Commission and such other officers and representatives as the Commander-in-Chief may designate.

39.

Reference to Italian Land, Sea and Air Forces in the present instrument shall be deemed to include Fascist Militia and all such other military or pare-military units, formations or bodies as the Allied Commander-in-Chief may prescribe.

40.

The term "War Material" in the present instrument denotes all material specified in such lists or definitions as may from time to time be issued by the Control Commission.

41.

The term "Italian Territory" includes all Italian colonies and dependencies and shall for the purposes of the present instrument (but without prejudice to the question of sovereignty) be deemed to include Albania. Provided however that except in such cases and to such extent as the United Nations may direct the provisions of the present instrument shall not apply in or affect the administration of any Italian colony or dependency already occupied by the United Nations or the rights or powers therein possessed or exercised by them.

42.

The Italian Government will send a delegation to the Headquarters of the Control Commission to represent Italian interests and to transmit the orders of the Control Commission to the competent Italian authorities.

43.

The present instrument shall enter into force at once. It will remain in operation until superseded by any other arrangements or until the voting into force of the peace treaty with Italy.

44.

The present instrument may be denounced by the United Nations with immediate effect if Italian obligations thereunder are not fulfilled or, as an alternative, the United Nations may penalize contravention of it by measures appropriate to the circumstances such as the extension of the areas of military occupation or air or other punitive action.

The present instrument is drawn up in English and Italian, the English text being authentic, and in case of any dispute regarding its interpretation, the decision of the Control Commission will prevail.

Signed at Malta on the 29 day of September, 1943.

Marshal PIETRO BADOGLIO

Head of the Italian Government

DWIGHT D. EISENHOWER

General, United States Army,

Commander-in-Chief, Allied Force

Inmates of the Syrets concentration camp in Ukraine rebelled against their guards. The prisoners had been detailed to help destroy the evidence of mass murder at Babi Yar.

280 of the 292 Jewish prisoners were killed in the uprising.

The Soviets captured Kremenchuk, Ukraine.

Tuesday, September 12, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part VIII. The high cost of freedom.


September 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy has replaced the Ukrainian Minister of Defense.

Russian drones hit the Danube River port infrastructure in Ukraine.

September 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has designates PepsiCo and the Mars candy company as :international war sponsors" due to their continued operations, and continued tax payments in and to Russia since the start of the Russo Ukrainian War.

PepiCo has operated in Russia, if you consider the USSR its predecessor, since 1974, as opposed to Coca-Cola which did not until 1985.  It has nineteen plants in the company and employs 20,000 people directly, and 40,000 agricultural employees indirectly.  It's Russia' fourth-largest food and beverage company.  Since the war started, its net profits have increased by 333%.

Mars profits have increased 59% since the start of the war.

To give an illustration of the absurd nature of consolidation and market domination in corporate capitalism, PepsiCo trademarks (brands) include the following (list courtesy of Wikipedia):

  • Agousha (Russia)
  • Alvalle (Spain)[3]
  • AMP Energy
  • Aquafina
  • Aquafina Flavorsplash
  • Aunt Jemima/Pearl Milling Company
  • Baconzitos (Brazil)
  • Cap'n Crunch
  • Cheetos
  • Chester's
  • Chipsy (Egypt, Serbia)
  • Chudo
  • Cracker Jack
  • Crunchy
  • Diet Mountain Dew
  • Diet Mug
  • Diet Pepsi
  • Diet 7UP (only outside of the United States)
  • Diet Sierra Mist
  • Domik v Derevne (Russia)
  • Doritos
  • Duyvis (Netherlands)
  • Elma Chips (Brazil)
  • Emperador (Mexico)
  • Evervess (Russia)
  • Fandangos (Brazil)
  • Frito-Lay
  • Fritos
  • Fruktoviy Sad (Russia)
  • Frustyle (Russia)
  • G2
  • Gatorade
  • Gatorade Zero
  • Grandma's
  • Imunele (Russia)
  • Izze
  • Ivi (Albania, Greece, Cyprus, Serbia)
  • Kas
  • KhrusTeam (Russia)
  • Kurkure (Bangladesh, India, Pakistan)
  • Lay's
  • Life
  • Lifewater
  • Lubimy (Russia)
  • Manzanita Sol
  • Marias Gamesa
  • Matutano (Spain, Portugal)
  • Marbo (Serbia)
  • Mirinda
  • Miss Vickie's
  • Mountain Dew
  • Mountain Dew Code Red
  • Mountain Dew Game Fuel
  • Mountain Dew Kickstart
  • Mug
  • Munchies
  • Naked (naked?)
  • Near East
  • O.N.E.
  • Paso de los Toros (Uruguay)
  • Pasta Roni
  • Pepsi
  • Pepsi Max
  • Pepsi Next
  • Pepsi Zero Sugar
  • Pioneer Foods
  • Propel
  • Quaker
  • Quaker Chewy
  • Rice-A-Roni
  • Rold Gold
  • Rosquinhas Mabel (Brazil)
  • Ruffles
  • Russkiy Dar (Russia)
  • Sabritas
  • Sakata (Australia)
  • Saladitas
  • Sandora (Ukraine)
  • Santitas
  • 7UP (only outside of the United States)
  • 7UP Free (only outside of the United States)
  • Sierra Mist
  • Simba (Southern Africa)
  • Smartfood
  • Smith's (Australia)
  • Snack a Jacks
  • SoBe
  • SoBe Lifewater
  • SoBe V Water
  • Sonric’s
  • Stacy’s
  • Star
  • Starry
  • Stiksy (Brazil)
  • Sting
  • SunChips
  • Tonus
  • Tostitos
  • Trop 50
  • Tropicana
  • Tropicana Farmstand
  • Tropicana Pure Premium
  • Tropicana Twister
  • Twisties (Oceania Region)
  • Vesely Molochnik
  • Walkers (United Kingdom)
  • Ya (Russia)
  • Yedigün (Turkey)
Hopefully that list will help reduce their profits.

Mars, which also owns Wrigley, is also gigantic, and its brands are:

  • 3 Musketeers
  • Ben's Original
  • Bounty
  • Celebrations
  • Cirku
  • CocoaVia
  • Combos
  • Dolmio
  • Dove
  • Ebly
  • Ethel M
  • FLAVIA
  • Fling
  • Flyte
  • Forever Yours
  • Galaxy
  • Galaxy Bubbles
  • Galaxy Minstrels
  • A Twix bar
  • M-Azing
  • M&M's
  • Maltesers
  • Marathon
  • Mars
  • Masterfoods
  • Milky Way
  • Munch
  • Promite
  • Revels
  • Seeds of Change
  • Snickers
  • Topic
  • Tracker
  • Treets
  • Twix
  • 5 gum cobalt packaging
  • 5 (gum)
  • Airwaves
  • Alpine
  • Altoids
  • Big Red
  • Bubble Tape
  • Doublemint
  • Eclipse
  • Eclipse Ice
  • Excel
  • Extra
  • Freedent
  • Hubba Bubba
  • Juicy Fruit
  • Life Savers
  • Lockets
  • Orbit
  • Ouch!
  • Rondo
  • Skittles
  • Spearmint
  • Starburst
  • Surpass
  • Tunes
  • Winterfresh
  • Wrigley's
Mars also manufactures products for pets, including:
  • Pedigree dry dog food
  • ADVANCE (Australia and New Zealand only)
  • Aquarium Pharmaceuticals
  • Buckeye Nutrition
  • Cesar
  • Chappi
  • Crave
  • Dreamies/Catisfactions
  • Dine (Australia and New Zealand version of Sheba)
  • Exelcat
  • Eukanuba
  • Exelpet
  • Frolic
  • The Goodlife Recipe
  • Good-o
  • Greenies
  • Iams
  • James Wellbeloved
  • Kit-e-Kat
  • My Dog
  • Natura
  • Natusan
  • Nutro Products
  • Optimum
  • Pedigree
  • Pill Pockets
  • Royal Canin
  • Schmackos
  • Sheba
  • Teasers
  • Techni-Cal
  • Temptations
  • Trill
  • Whiskas
  • Winergy
Obviously, the two companies are hard to avoid, and people can make their own judgements, but even from an economic social justice standpoint, this is absurd.

September 7, 2023

Armenia

The United States will participate in military exercises with Armenia next week.  Russia has voiced concerns.

Syrian Civil War

By Thespoondragon - Own work, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=82968413


The Syrian Democratic Forces captured Diban.  The alliance of anti-government Syrian rebels is the army of the Autonomous Administration of North and East Syria, which controls approximately 1/4 of the country.

ISW reports that protests against the government have been increasing.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces continue to advance in the south, with there being indications that some Ukrainian elements have advanced past prepared Russian positions.

September 8, 2023

North Korea

North Korea has announced that it has launched a nuclear attack submarine. Assuming this is true, this is a massive upgrade in its nuclear warfare capabilities and may very well be one that makes it invulnerable, as a practical matter, to being attacked. 

September 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War
Russian forces have reportedly made notable changes to their command and control (C2) in Ukraine to protect command infrastructure and improve information sharing, although Russian force deployments are likely still exacerbating issues with horizontal integration. Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET) Deputy Director of Analysis Magarita Konaev and CSET Fellow Owen Daniels stated on September 6 that Russian forces moved headquarters out of range of most Ukrainian strike systems and have placed forward command posts further underground and behind heavily defended positions.[1] It is unclear if Russian forces have employed this more protected command infrastructure throughout Ukraine and to what degree these defensive efforts have impeded Ukraine’s ongoing interdiction campaign.[2] Konaev and Daniels stated that Russian forces have improved communications between command posts and units at the front by laying field cables and using safer radio communications.[3] The Royal United Services Insitute (RUSI) stated on September 4 that Russian forces are also trying to improve signals through the wider use of application-based C2 services that require less training.[4] Konaev and Daniels noted that signals at the battalion level downward are still often unencrypted and that Russian personnel still frequently communicate sensitive information through unsecure channels.[5]

The Russians, the same ISW report notes, are changing their artillery tactics to emphasize accuracy over mass fire, a change that was long ago implemented in Western armies but comes about here due to ammunition shortages.

These changes, it should be noted, if successful, would amount to improvements in Russian capabilities.

North Korea

The Old Salt's Blog, which is linked in at the side, reports that there are reasons to doubt the capabilities of North Korea's new, and diesel, powered submarine.

September 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Kim Jong Un has traveled to Russia to meet with Putin.  He traveled by armored train, an anachronism if ever there was one.

The Russo Ukrainian War has served to make Kim relevant in ways he was not before, one of the ways being that, given the fall of the Warsaw Pact following the end of the Cold War, it's one of the few countries in the world manufacturing the old Soviet patter munitions that Russia is consuming which will also export to Russia.

South Korea, for its part, has became an arms supplier as well, shipping armor to Ukraine and Poland, and artillery to Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces advanced near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast.

Last edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 7. Summer.

Thursday, September 7, 2023

Tuesday, September 7, 1943. Verbrannte Erde

Heinrich Himmler issued his "scorched earth" order requiring that German forces completely denude areas in the East they were retreating from in every sense.

German recruiting poster aimed at the Dutch. Around 20,000 to 25,000 Dutch nationals joined the SS, the largest group of foreign nationals, outside of Soviet citizens, to volunteer to serve Germany.

Scorched early orders are surprisingly common in warfare, and are designed to prevent an advancing army from using a conquered area's resources.  More than most armies of World War Two, both the Germans and the Soviets depended on local resources. For some areas in the East this would be the second time they'd been subjected to this during the war, as the Soviets also practiced it, and for Ukraine, it was part of an ongoing series of disasters afflicting residents of the region.

Sarah Sundin notes for this day:

Today in World War II History—September 7, 1943: German 17th Army begins evacuating the Kuban bridgehead in southern Russia as the Soviets advance. Actor Orson Welles marries actress Rita Hayworth.

I honestly didn't know that Welles and Hayworth had ever been married. 

Thursday, August 31, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 7. Summer.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-26-2023


July 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy has been in Turkey where he met with and received oral support from the Turkish government, and where he appeared with Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew I, the head of the Eastern Orthodox Churches.

July 10, 2023

US v. ISIL

US Reaper drones killed had been flying ISIL leader Usamah al-Muhajir, while he was riding a motorcycle in the Aleppo region.  The same drones had earlier been harassed by Russian fighter aircraft.

July 11, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Turkey has quit blocking Sweden's admittance into NATO.

Russian submarine commander Stanislav Rzhitskiy, whose vessel fired on a Ukrainian city early in the war, was shot dead on a morning run near the Olimp sport complex in Krasnodar, southern Russia, according to reports.

July 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Turkey dropped objections to Sweden joining NATO, which shall now occur.

A missile strike reportedly killed Deputy Commander of the Russian Southern Military District, Lieutenant General Oleg Tsokov.

July 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Maj. Gen. Ivan Popov, the commander of the 58th Army, has been relieved of his command.  He announced his removal to his troops.

The Group of Seven and NATO signed agreements to offer Ukraine long-term security commitments, signalling a more formal arrangement to come, likely after the conclusion of the war.

This more or less means that unless Russia completely defeats Ukraine in the current war, one of Russia's war aims has been lost.

July 14, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US will be deploying 3,000 Reservists to Europe in support of the US's efforts to aid Ukraine.

July 14, cont:

By the authority vested in me as President by the Constitution and the laws of the United States of America, including sections 121 and 12304 of title 10, United States Code, I hereby determine that it is necessary to augment the active Armed Forces of the United States for the effective conduct of Operation Atlantic Resolve in and around the United States European Command’s area of responsibility.  In furtherance of this operation, under the stated authority, I hereby authorize the Secretary of Defense, and the Secretary of Homeland Security with respect to the Coast Guard when it is not operating as a service in the Navy, under their respective jurisdictions, to order to active duty any units, and any individual members not assigned to a unit organized to serve as a unit of the Selected Reserve, or any member in the Individual Ready Reserve mobilization category and designated as essential under regulations prescribed by the Secretary concerned, not to exceed 3,000 total members at any one time, of whom not more than 450 may be members of the Individual Ready Reserve, as they deem necessary, and to terminate the service of those units and members ordered to active duty.

This order is not intended to, and does not, create any right or benefit, substantive or procedural, enforceable at law or in equity by any party against the United States, its departments, agencies, or entities, its officers, employees, or agents, or any other person.


                             JOSEPH R. BIDEN JR.

This is the first time I've actually seen an order which refers to the Individual Ready Reserve.  It makes sense, actually, as IRR troops may have individual skills that would be useful in a t raining role.

My guess is that the IRR troops will be all volunteers for activation.

July 15, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Putin has indicated that he intends to keep the Wagner Group as a fighting force, but separated from its leader.

The SA, we would not, never amounted to what it had been before Ernst Röhm was offed.

July 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Wagner has been seen in Belarus and there are plans for it to conduct joint drills with the Belorussian army.

Something about this is really odd, and has to relate to whatever deal was struck.   The Belorussian Army is generally regarded as pretty bad, FWIW.

Russian 106th Guards Airborne (VDV) Division Commander Major General Vladimir Seliverstov has been relieved of his command.  It is not known why, but he was noted for speaking up for his troops.

July 17, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia has pulled out of the Black Sea grain shipment deal.

On This Week, Chris Christie maintained that Russia's war in Ukraine is being backed by the Chinese for Chinese objectives. This is becoming a persistent Republican theme.  That the Chinese may be backing Russia doesn't surprise me, but the suggestion that the war is a Chinese proxy war, which is being made, doesn't ring true.

July 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Attempting to take advantage of commitment of Ukrainian forces elsewhere, the Russians are mounting an offensive in northeast Ukraine.

Ukraine hit the bridge from Crimea to the mainland again, heavily damaging it.

July 19, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

As Russian minefields take their toll on western-supplied tanks and Ukrainian sappers, their forces have so-far retaken approximately five miles of the sixty miles they need to split the land-bridge connecting Russia to Crimea. The land between Mariupol in the east and Melitopol to the west is seen as the vital ground to achieving this.

It is incredibly tough going for the Ukrainians. They lack the air cover and advanced jets to protect their ground forces from Russian attack helicopters and fighters. Their soldiers, meanwhile must negotiate miles of minefields, tank-traps and then ultimately the heavily dug Russian trench networks.

This gruelling endeavour was always going to take longer than the occasionally impatient international audience was prepared to wait for. It is a military effort of immense proportions, where mass, manpower, morale, equipment, stocks, logistics, grit and luck all play vital roles. So far, the Ukrainians are displaying all of these military qualities.

* * * 

While much fighting remains to be done across Ukraine’s southern farmlands over the coming months, governments across the west must be prepared for the grim prospect of territorial concessions as one potential political outcome of a failed counter-offensive. Whether a Putinist Kremlin would respect such a deal if Kyiv were to receive security pledges short of full Nato membership is extremely doubtful.  

Regardless, this would surely be a favoured outcome for China’s ruling “wolf warrior” foreign policy elite. Beijing would be utterly delighted if the war were to end with Ukraine divided, Russian troops permanently in the Donbas harassing Kyiv and Europe, and Nato fractured on political lines. Such an outcome would be a gift to China as Xi Jinping begins to ramp up his own imperialistic and extra-territorial ambitions across the Indo-Pacific – and a devastating defeat for the West. 

The Telegraph. 

Russia is amassing vast numbers of troops and equipment along the northern frontline in Ukraine, Kyiv has warned.

Serhii Cherevatyi, spokesperson for the Eastern Group of Forces of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, told local television that Moscow had gathered more than 100,000 troops on the Lyman-Kupiansk axis, as well as 900 tanks, 555 artillery systems and 370 multiple rocket launchers.

Newsweek. 

The Ukrainians are obviously not beaten, and ISW feels the troops in the north that Russia intends to commit to a counteroffensive are of poor quality and will not be successful, but it's obviously the case that the Ukrainian offensive is not achieving its goals in the face of Russian defense in depth and massive use of mines.

July 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia conducted a missile offensive on Ukrainian ports yesterday, no doubt designed to disrupt Ukrainian grain shipments.

July 21, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

July 21, cont.

Igor Girkin, who is associated with the shooting down of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17, killing 298 people, was arrested in Russia today by Russian authorities.

Heads continue to keep rolling.

July 24, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Now Ukraine is in a battle to get back more of the land that Russia seized from it. It's already taken back about 50 percent of what was initially seized. Now they're in a very hard fight to take back more. These are still relatively early days of the counteroffensive. It is tough.

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. 

Drones hit two buildings in Moscow.

A Russian missile strike on Odessa badly damaged the Cathedral of the Transfiguration.

July 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has launched a massive offensive action against Russians in the Zaporizhzhia region. They appear to have cleared defensive obstacles and are pushing through.

July 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces launched a significant mechanized counteroffensive operation in western Zaporizhia Oblast on July 26 and appear to have broken through certain pre-prepared Russian defensive positions south of Orikhiv. Russian sources, including the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and several prominent milbloggers, claimed that Ukrainian forces launched an intense frontal assault towards Robotyne (10km south of Orikhiv) and broke through Russian defensive positions northeast of the settlement.[1] Geolocated footage indicates that Ukrainian forces likely advanced to within 2.5km directly east of Robotyne during the attack before Russian forces employed standard doctrinal elastic defense tactics and pushed Ukrainian troops back somewhat, although not all the way back to their starting positions.

There are now multiple reports that a "second phase" or "main phase" of the Ukrainian summer offensive have been launched

Niger

Members of the armed forces are attempting a coup.

Syria

Russian Air Force fighters continue to interfere with American drones.

July 31, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian drones struck targets in Moscow again within the last 24 hours.

Former President Donald Trump, and current candidate, urged aid to Ukraine to be suspended until evidence regarding Hunter Biden is submitted fully to Congress.

These topics are not rationally related to each other, but Trump is demonstrating increasing irrationality in the face of multiple criminal investigations concerning his post election activities.

China v. US

It is being asserted that China has inserted malware into computer networks servicing U.S bases.

August 4, 2023

An attack on the Russian port of Novorossiysk by Ukrainian drones resulted in a Russian warship capsizing.

August 6, 2023

Niger

The military asked for help from the Wagner Group to defend itself against anticipated military action by African states to restore the democracy in that country.

Russo Ukrainian War

From the Trib:

DRONES STRIKE RUSSIAN TANKER, PORT

Russia raised the upper limit for conscription to 30 years of age.

August 7, 2023

Niger

Niger has closed its airspace.

August 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Poland is deploying up to 10,000 troops on its border with Belarus due to the presence of Wagner mercenaries being deployed on the Belorussian side of the border.

August 17, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has taken Urozhaine.

August 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

A Defense Department briefing of Congressmen has stated that Ukraine will not reach the southeastern city of Melitopol, presuming that to be a key objective, and therefore will not sever Russia’s land bridge to Crimea this year.  

The report attributes it to minefields and Ukraine determining to ignore Western advice to use a schwerpunkt, particularly after having encountered initial heavy Russian resistance and large-scale losses, something amplified by a lack of air cover.

The report finds that Ukrainian forces will remain several miles outside of Melitopol at the conclusion of the offensive.

There's no way to put a happy face on this conclusion, if it comes true.  Opting for attriting Russian forces was reverting to World War One tactics.

At the same time, however, there are now reports of Ukraine committing troops in large numbers which it had held back earlier.

August 18, cont:

A less gloomy view:

August 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian troops have broken through to the north of Tokmak.

Ukrainian forces conducted a drone strike on Soltsy airbase in Novgorod Oblast.

August 22, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces made tactically significant gains in and east of Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 20-21 while continuing counteroffensive operations on the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast administrative border and in eastern Ukraine.

August 23, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin was on the passenger list of a jet which crashed killing all on board, Russia's civil aviation authority has said. 

The BBC.

It can't help but be noted that opponents of Putin have a bizarrely high attrition rate and an unusual number of accidents.  It could just be coincidence, but it's weird.

cont:  

The early reports had this plane as shot down.

Video shows a plane that looks like it was shot down.

cont:

President Biden on the death of Wagner Group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin: "I said I would be careful of what I drink and what I rode in. I don't know for a fact what happened, but I'm not surprised."

CSPAN.

As an aside, somehow those who hate everything Biden and love everything Trump will find a way to criticize that pretty honest comment, whereas if Trump said the same thing (which he couldn't due to his weird diction), they'd think it the soul of wit.

August 24, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and the Kremlin have been destroying the Wagner private military company (PMC) and weakening Prigozhin’s authority since the rebellion – and the assassination of Wagner’s top leadership was likely the final step to eliminate Wagner as an independent organization. 

Cont:

Kristina Raspopova.

She was the flight attendant of Embraer Legacy 600 Business Jet blown out of the sky in order to kill Yevgeny Prigozhin and other Wagnerites.  The young woman had taken the flight in order to be able to return home and to her next station early.

It's not possible to weep for Yevgeny Prigozhin.  He lived by the sword and died by it, and the actions of his men have been brutal.  It is possible to hope that he realized the gravity of his sins and reconciled before his death.

But killing innocent stewardesses is just flat out murder.

August 25, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine conducted an amphibious commando raid on the facilities of the Crimean municipalities of Olenivka and Mayak.

August 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces continue to grain in the western Zaporizhia Oblast and may be close to breaking out.

August 30, 2023

Gabon


The Gabonese Army has taken over that country in a coup following an election which returned to office a member of the family that has ruled the country for 50 years.

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukrainian paratroopers, in a ground assault role, are flanking Russian positions at Novoprokopivka, a town that sits on the T0408/0401 road threading south through Tokmak to Melitopol.

Ukraine is receiving an additional $250,000,000 in U.S. aid.

A Ukrainian drone attack occured on the airfield at Pskov.

August 31, 2023

China v. Taiwan

The US has approved $80,000,000 in aid to Taiwan under the Foreign Military Financing, something normally only done for soveign states.

Taiwan, which is the Republic of China, has never declared independence from China. Rather, it's claim to be China's legitimate government has been quietly abandoned over the years.  The People's Republic of China, of course, claims the island as it's own and continually threatens to invade it.  In reality, Taiwan is de facto independent if not de jure, a status which really ought to change, and which this is a step towards.

It'll probably enrage the Red menance.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian light infantry has infiltrated east of Russian field fortifications near Verbove.

Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov has reiterated his loyalty to Russian President Vladimir Putin in a continued attempt to distance himself from the late Yevgeny Prigozhin.   I ownder if he's avoiding going up stairs recently?

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 6. Late Spring.


Recent Related Threads:

Tuesday, August 29, 2023

Sunday, August 29, 1943. Denmark fully occupied.

Germany dissolved the Danish government and placed King Christian X and Prime Minister Erik Scavenius under arrest, with the German military in the Danish protectorate going into action to affect an occupation in Operation Safari.

Danish officers under arrest.

The Danes, who had a bizarre status as an occupied nation up until then, still being allowed to maintain their government and military, scuttled 32 warships.  The armored cruiser Niels luel was sunk by German aircraft after Danes attempted to flee with it to Sweden.  Four Danish ships, all minor, in fact made it to Sweden.

Effectively, Danish quasi independence ended, although it had been held in a precarious state up until that time since 1940 in the first place.

Notably, within the past week the Germans had taken steps to occupy their ally, Italy, and now were formalizing control of quasi independent Denmark.  As its position on the battlefield deteriorated, its military commitments were growing.

The Red Army captured Liubotyn in Ukraine.

Tuesday, July 11, 2023

Sunday, July 11, 1923. Allied Success, and Disaster, in Sicily. Massacres in Poland.

Patton, in a famous pose, on the ground in Gela, Sicily on this day in 1943.

The Allies captured the Sicilian port cities of Syracuse (Siracusa), Licata, Gela, Pachino, Avola, Noto, Pozzallo, Scoglitti, Ispica and Rosolini.

US Navy gunners opened up on US transport aircraft carrying paratroopers at Gela that evening, resulting in the deaths of over 300 of them in the worst friendly fire incident in the war to date.   The Luftwaffe had earlier attempted a nighttime raid on the ships much earlier in the day, making the gunners nervous.  The disaster commenced when a single ship's gunner opened up on passing C-47s and C-53s.

The USS Boise crossing the bow of the USS LSST-325 while firing on German armored forces near Gela,  July 11, 1943.

The Navy, however, also saved the day at Gela on this day by stopping an armored counterattack with ship to shore fire.  And Patton came ashore at the same city that day.  Both events are depicted in movies, with the first in The Big Red One, and the second in Patton.

Red Cross field director James P. Show would perform acts of heroism on this day which would result in the Silver Star.  His citation would read:

The President of the United States of America takes pleasure in presenting the Silver Star to Mr. James P. Shaw a United States Civilian, for gallantry in action while serving as Field Director, American Red Cross, attached to the *** Infantry, in action on 11 July 1943, near Licata, Sicily. On that date, an enemy dive bomber scored a direct hit on a landing craft which had almost reached its position for debarkation. Mr. Shaw, who was already ashore, immediately left his position of comparative security, waded back into the rough water and assisted many men to safety. He continued to assist until the last man had been brought to shore and the wounded cared for. All of these acts were performed at the risk of his life because of attacking enemy airplanes, the explosion of ammunition on the damaged craft, and the turbulent and treacherous water. The gallantry of Mr. Shaw on this occasion is a distinct credit to himself and the American Red Cross.

The Ukrainian Insurgent Army (UPA), the military arm of the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalist OUN-B branch, attacked 99 Polish settlements in Wołyń Province of Poland.  Attacks were carried out in what became known as the Vohynian Bloody Sunday on Kisielin, Poryck, Chrynów, Zabłoćce, and Krymn.  Attacks coincided with local attendance at Mass.

The massacre campaign was part of a OUN-B effort, which is sometimes called the Volyn (Wołyń) Tragedy, to clear Poles from the territory east of the Bug River, and dated back to the difficulties that existed in drawing a border between Poland, Ukraine and Belarus following World War One.  The OUN itself was split into OUN-B and OUN-M.  The OUN itself dated back to 1929 when it formed and absorbed other Ukrainian independence movements.  It was a right wing organization which picked up elements of fascism early on, and the Nazism later.  OUN-M was named for one of the OUN's founders, Andriy Melnyk, who declared Ukraine independent after the German invasion of the country during World War Two. OUN-B, named for Stepan Bandera, was much more radical and indeed the two organizations fought each other.  OUN-B came to dominate.

A far right organization in general, and in the case of OUN-B radically so, the organization picked up much of the extreme far right attitudes of the day, including being racist, deeply nationalist, and anti-clerical (indeed Melnyk's personal conservatism and Catholicism made Melnyk at odds with the views of his own organization).  OUN-B principally attacked Poles during the war and was allied to the Germans until the Germans began to collapse, at which time it eschewed its fascist ideology and took on a pro-democracy one.  The UPA would fight against the Soviets and Poles after the conclusion of the Second World War.

The genocidal effort against the Poles was bizarre in a way in that not only was it horrifically violent, but it ultimately served the interests of the Soviet Union in creating an ethnic line of demarcation which was west of the Bug.  While the majority of victims were Poles, some Ukrainian civilians who opposed the actions or who were not of the same brand of nationalist as the UPA.  Several hundred Jews, Russians, Czech and Georgians who were part of Polish families or who sheltered Poles were murdered.  Total Polish victim numbers are hard to determine, but they were ultimately between 50,000 to 100,000, mostly killed during July and August 1943.

Melnyk would escape to the West after the war and died in Luxembourg at age 73, in 1964.  Bandera was assassinated by the KGB in Munich in 1959.  He was 50 years old.

Saturday, July 8, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 6. Late Spring.


June 6, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Some sort of Ukrainian offensive has started in southern Ukraine and in the Donetsk region.

The Russians have breached the Kakhovka dam within the territory they hold, probably as part of an effort to flood the battlefield.

June 7, 2023

Apparently, the breaching of the subject dam flooded Russian positions and carried some Russian soldiers off to their deaths.

June 8, 2023

The Ukrainian spring offensive has begun.

June 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine has been tight-lipped with information regarding the offensive, but it is now known that there have been advances in the south-eastern portion of the country and some villages have been liberated from Russian control, including Blagodatnoye and Neskuchnoe, They also continue to advance around Bakhmut.

Sudanese Civil War

Fighting resumed in the capital yesterday.

June 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian partisans destroyed a train carrying diesel fuel near Mariupol.  

The reservoir drained by Russian action has drained to the point where bodies of Soviet and German soldiers from the Second World War have been revealed.

June 13, 2023, cont.

Russian source are reporting that the Ukrainian Army is in Tokmak which, if true, puts them 63 km, or 40 miles, from Mariupol.  40 miles is a long way in military terms, but it that is true, and it may very well not be, Ukrainians are well on their way towards isolating Crimea.

Major General Sergei Goryachev, Chief of Staff of the 35th Combined Arms Army, was killed yesterday by a Ukrainian missile strike in the Zaporizhzhia region.

June 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

An odd comment from Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov:

Indeed, Ukraine was heavily militarized at the time of the beginning of the Special Military Operation. And, as Putin said yesterday, one of the tasks was to demilitarize Ukraine. In fact, this task is largely completed. Ukraine is using less and less of its weapons. And more and more it uses the weapons systems that Western countries supply it with.

This could be an example of random verbal slip ups, but it could also signal an intent to declare victory and go home in some fashion.

Having said that, there's now real reason to worry that the Ukrainian Spring Offensive will be a failure.   The Ukrainian Army is advancing, but quite slowly.  Both sides are taking heavy casualties.

June 23, 2023

Russia Civil War?

This is odd:

Wagner Chief Says Russian Military Launched Strikes on His Camps, Vows Retaliation

Perhaps the age-old lesson about why using mercenaries is a bad idea is being played out here.

Or perhaps the age-old lesson about not betraying your mercenaries is being played out here.

June 23, 2023, cont

Russian media is now terming the Wagner group's actions a "revolt" by its leader, and are urging Wagner troops to arrest him.

This is either the end of Wagner or the beginning of a really messy episode in Russia.

June 23, cont

Wagner forces and Russian Army forces are now fighting in Rostov On Don.

June 24, 2023

Russian Civil War

Putin made a broadcast appeal for Wagner to end its rebellion, without naming them by name.  Translated by the Washington Post, which published the short address in full, it concludes:

As the President of Russia and Supreme Commander-in-Chief, as a citizen of Russia, I will do everything to defend the country, to protect the constitutional order, the lives, security and freedom of citizens.

The one who organized and prepared the military rebellion, who raised arms against their comrades-in-arms, betrayed Russia. And they will answer for it. And I urge those who are being dragged into this crime not to make a fatal and tragic, unparalleled mistake, to make the only right choice — to stop participating in criminal acts.

I believe that we will preserve and defend what is dear and sacred to us, and together with our Motherland we will overcome any trials, we will become even stronger.

This leaves Prigozhin now way out.

Wagner forces have been seen convoying north, as far north, as Kolodezsky, Lipetsk Oblast. That's halfway between Rostov and Moscow.

June 24, cont:

Moscow's mayor has declared Monday a day off and urged workers not to report to work Monday.

Putin's airplane departed Moscow, but it is not known who is on board it.

One report, goodness knows how reliable it is or isn't, has the police in Moscow pondering which side to land on, as they don't have the resources to oppose an actual military force.

Wow. Shades of Russia 1917, or is it Germany, July 44?

June 25, 2023

Wagner Uprising/Russo Ukrainian War

This bizarre drama seems to have played out.

Wagner mercenary chieftain Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose forces only yesterday were advancing unimpeded on Moscow, and who shot down seven Russian aircraft along the way, and who seemed set to depose Putin, struck a deal with the modern Czar in which his forces return, more or less to barracks, and he takes up exile in Belarus.

He better sleep with one eye open.

There's been utterly nothing like this whatsoever in modern times.

His forces that remain under arms will enter the Russian Army.

The U.S. was apparently aware of the intended uprising before it occurred and had informed Kyiv. While it demonstrated that there'rs nothing in the Russian rear, Ukraine does not appear to have been able to take advantage of the situation.

June 26, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

June 27, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Reports hold that the Ukrainian Army has crossed the Antonovsky Bridge over the Dnieper in Kherson Oblast.

Some Wagner troops are being redeployed to Belarus.  This is not insignificant and may signal how Putin put down the rebellion.  Wagner troops may now be committed to that region, in preparation for offensive actions from the north.  It's worth remembering that Prigozhin complained earlier on that Putin wasn't being aggressive enough in Ukraine, and Putin has been trying to get Belarus to commit to the war.

ISW, on this, reports:

Some Wagner Group forces may follow Prigozhin to Belarus. Russian opposition outlet Verstka reported on June 26 that Belarusian authorities are constructing several new camps to house the Wagner Group fighters in Belarus and that the construction of a 24,000 square kilometer base for 8,000 Wagner Group fighters is already underway in Asipovichy, Mogilev Oblast.[7] The location of a Wagner Group base in Asipovichy does not pose an immediate threat against Ukraine; Asipovichy is about 200 kilometers from Belarus’ international border with Ukraine, and the establishment of new Wagner Group bases in Gomel or Brest oblasts on the border with Ukraine would be much more alarming. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko may seek to use the Prigozhin and Wagner Group fighters to balance against a longstanding Russian effort to establish a permanent military presence in Belarus, though the extent to which Lukashenko can successfully co-opt Prigozhin or refuse a potential Russian extradition demand for Prigozhin or Wagner fighters in Belarus remains unclear. Prigozhin’s personal whereabouts remain unclear as of June 26, though some unconfirmed reports suggest that he is in the “Green City Hotel” in western Minsk City.[8]

Belarus will not offer Prigozhin or Wagner fighters a true haven if the Kremlin pressures Belarus, however. Putin may be presenting Belarus as a haven for Wagner fighters as a trap. The Kremlin will likely regard the Wagner Group personnel who follow Prigozhin to Belarus as traitors whether or not it takes immediate action against them. Putin notably stated in his June 26 speech that Wagner Group fighters are permitted to go to Belarus and that Putin will keep his unspecified “promise” about Wagner fighters who choose to do so.[9] Putin’s acknowledgement that he made a personal promise, presumably that Wagner personnel who went to Belarus would be safe there, was remarkable. The long-term value of that promise, Putin’s speech notwithstanding, is questionable. Wagner Group personnel in Belarus are unlikely to remain safe from Russian extradition orders if Putin reneges and charges them with treason. Lukashenko previously turned over 33 Belarusian-detained Wagner personnel to Moscow after using them as leverage against the Kremlin in 2020, and there is no apparent reason why he would not do so again.[10]

ISW's take on this is definitely different, noting that this would be a refuge for Prigozhin loyalist.  For that matter, Wagner, which has operations in Africa, needs to retain a base, as does Prigozhin.

Prigozhin may be facing loyalty problems himself now, as troops that followed him are now denouncing him, having been led into a rebellion, and now feeling abandoned.

Putin, having avoided ending up a target on the Kremlin's wall, is talking tough about Wagner leadership and loyalist again, once again branding them traitors.  It's almost certain that senior Wagner leadership will end up dead, as will Prigozhin, if our first speculation isn't correct. Even if it is, they may ultimately end up dead anyway.  Prigozhin is now playing up his loyalty to Putin.  ISW's view on the situation is that Putin's rupture with Prigozhin is complete.

June 28, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Leaked US intelligence holds that senior Russian military figures were aware of Prigozhin's coup attempt and may have supported it in varying degrees.

This is an indication that this story really hasn't played out yet.  If that's correct, those figures need to decide if they'll accept the fate of those who support failed coups, or if the effort to replace Putin is still on.  If significant numbers of senior Russian officers have cast their lot with Prigozhin, they could likely still pull off a change in government.

ISW reports that Belarus brokered the settlement with the goal of taking in Wagner troops as a hedge against Russia. The thesis that Belarus' seeks to avoid through pressure what Ukraine is resisting through military force, inclusion into Russia.

Ukrainian airborne has retaken some territory which was taken by the Russians in 2014.

June 29, 2023

Russian Civil War

General Sergey Surovikin, a senior Russian general, was arrested yesterday for his role in supporting the attempted coup.

June 30, 2023

Chinese Balloon

The US has concluded that the balloon did not gather intelligence over its flight over the U.S.

Frankly, I'm skeptical as to that conclusion, but that's the conclusion.

Russian Civil War/Russo Ukrainian War

A second Russian general,Valery Gerasimov, has disappeared, and the Russians are questioning pilots who refused to fire on Wagner forces.

Newsweek ran an op ed by author Rebekah Koffler, president of Doctrine & Strategy Consulting, and a former DIA intelligence officer, which asserts that the coup was a false flag operation designed to bolster Putin's status in the face of an upcoming election and to reposition Wagner troops in Belarus.

This now seems unlikely.  One of the arguments she makes in favor of her argument is that the entire episode was hopelessly weird, which is quite true, but much of Russian history is likewise hopelessly weird.  What other nation would see its army stand by while its leader committed mass murder of its leadership?

Ukrainian troops are praising the qualities of the Bradley Armored Fighting Vehicle.

Ukraine claims to have seized the "strategic initiative" near Bakhmut.

Syrian Civil War

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23

There is further speculation that Iran may begin to participate in this mater on the Syrian government side.

If so, Russia is really playing with fire.  Iranian long term goals don't match Russia's at all. 

It's also an interesting example of how a really second rate army can still be a major force where the other forces are third rate.\

July 2, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War/Russian Civil War

Belorussian rebels report the construction of camps at a former military facility 140 miles from the Ukrainian border, which would appear to be for Wagner troops.

July 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine reports taking back 14.4 Square miles this past week. Slow-going is partially due to heavy Russian use of mines.

Israel/Palestinians

Israeli forces launched a large military operation in the occupied West Bank city of Jenin.

July 5, 2023

Israel/Palestinians

Israel pulled its forces back out of Jenin, but warned such raids could happen again in the future.

July 6, 2023

Russian Civil War

Wagner's troops have remained in their camps in Russia and its leader was sited in St. Petersburg, all of which is quite odd under the circumstances.

US v. ISIL

Russian jets harassed U.S. drones targeting ISIL.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The US is sending cluster munitions to Ukraine.

July 7, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Ukrainians have made significant tactical gains around Bakhmut.

The Russians have deployed Russian almost the entire Russian Eastern Grouping of Forces to southern Ukraine.  This would mean that either they anticapte a massive Ukrainian effort shortly, or they have sustained so many losses that they are now in the effective position of committing all of their reserves.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 5. La Golondrina


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