January 15, 2021
Israel v. Syria, Fatid Brigade and Iran
Last week Israel conducted an air raid on positions in Syria, killing 57 people. The raids were directed at the Fatid Brigade, which had recently received weapons from Iran, but the losses included members of the Syrian forces an another Iraqi militia as well.
What it's about: The Fatid Brigade is an Iranian backed Shiia militia dedicated to the defeat if Israel, one of several such Iranian funded and equipped entities. The brigade is made up of Afghan Shiias, an oddity in that there would seem to be plenty of fighting to do inside of Afghanistan itself if they were looking for a fight. Syria has received Iranian support in its civil war and is an Iranian ally.
Who else is involved: As noted.
What are the combatants like: All of the Iranian backed militias are serious units, but none of them compare to the Israeli forces and Syria is obviously impotent to prevent Israeli strikes.
Good guys and bad guys?: The ongoing Iranian contest with Israel is really something out of the past which most Islamic countries in the region have de facto abandoned, if not officially abandoned. The Iranians themselves would likely abandon it but for their radical political leadership, and the nature of the fascist government of Syria speaks for itself.
North Korea v. Everyone
North Korea revealed a new submarine ballistic missile yesterday, proving that nations that can't really do anything else, can still produce weapons.
What's it about: It's about the world's only Stalinist monarchy keeping itself relevant.
Who else is involved: South Korea and the United States are the North's most active opponents, but Japan is as well and most of the West in some ways. China seems to back North Korea but its an ally that the North can't really trust to intervene in its affairs itself. North Korea can also look to Russia for some support due to a legacy stemming from the USSR.
What are the combatants like: North Korea's military can field some modern weapons, but in reality, the pathetic state of the nation's economy and seventy years of Communist demoralization make it a major menace, but not a serious opponent, for anyone. Only the presumed backing of nearby China, which is probably a military threat to North Korea itself, keeps it propped up and a dangerous threat.
Good guys and bad guys: North Korea has one of the worst regimes in the world.
January 28, 2021
Yemeni Civil War
The United States, now under a new administration, has suspended arms sales to Saudi Arabia and the UAE pending review.
Both countries have been involved in the civil war in Yemen, an involvement that has been controversial in Congress.
What's it about: Yemen has been unstable its entire history, and indeed was once two countries, one of them being a Communistic one. Since 2014 there's been a multi party civil war going on with the Saudi and UAE backed government fighting a Houthi backed rival government, a secessionist movement, and ISIL. Saudi support restored the government to power but has featured a Saudi air campaign that has resulted in largescale loss of life.
Who else is involved: Players are listed above.
Good guys and bad guys: Frankly, this regional conflict is hard to grasp in some ways. The Saudi and UAE involvement is geared towards opposing the rise of fundamentalist Shiia powers in the region and ISIL, which also serves our interest, but their fighting has been traditional Middle Eastern, i.e., without quarter.
February 6, 2021
Yemeni Civil War continued.
The Biden Administration reversed the Trump Administration classification of the Houthi's rebels in Yemen as terrorist.
February 11, 2021
India v. China, continued from first thread.
Indian and China have agreed to pull troops back from part of their disputed border.
February 26, 2021
Syrian Civil War and Iraqi insurrections, continued.
The United States conducted an air strike yesterday on Iranian back militias that had conducted a recent rocket attack on US sites in Iraq.
India v. Pakistan
Indian and Pakistan have been in a state of hot and cold war over the Kashmiri border since their independence. Yesterday, they announced a cease fire line to the surprise of everyone.
March 22, 2021
United States v. Iran
Intelligence reports have revealed that Iran has threated to attack facilities as the Army's Ft. McNair outside of Washington, D.C. Iran has also threatened to target at least one senior officer in an attack.
What's it about: The United States and Iran have been at odds ever since Iran's Islamic Revolution made it a theological state. As such, it's been hostile to nearly every state in the world that are not Shiite Islamic ones.
Who else is involved: Nearly every country that isn't Shiite has at least some problems with Iran to some degree. States that are highly at odds with Iran include Israel, Saudi Arabia, and the United States.
Good guys and bad guys: Iran has been a center of Islamic extremism every since its revolution and at this point is adverse to the desires of its own average citizens. Indeed, the highly educated population of Iran has rumored to have seen a lot of secret abandonment of Islam over the last several years.
March 27, 2021
Myanmarese v. Myanmarese Army
Not really a war, yet, but certainly something in the armed strife neighborhood, back on February 1 the Tatmadaw, the Myanmarese Army, staged a coup and overthrew the democratically elected government.
Today, March 27, the army opened fire on protesters and killed over 100. Protests have been continual since the Army staged the coup and show no signs of letting up.
Anyone here heard of Saigon in the 1960s.. . .
Anyhow, this isn't looking good.
What's it about: Burma, which is the older name for Myanmar, is basically a failed state. A British possession up until the 1948, it chafed under British rule and was then occupied by the Japanese. In the general sort of romanticized recollection of the Second World War, a sort of Bridge on the River Kwai image has come down to us, but its not very accurate. Originally administered as part of India, when separated out as a separate colony the British received next to no local support. Efforts to recruit Burmese soldiers to a local army were a failure, and over 15,000 Burmese joined a Japanese supported army during the early stages of World War Two, although support for the Japanese rapidly dropped off due to Japanese brutality. Indeed, major Burmese independence forces that had been allied with the Japanese switches sides during the war. The country was rewarded for its trouble by the British with independence in 1948, but like much of Southeast Asia the governments proved to be unstable. In 1962 the then in power civilian leadership turned to the military to impose order, and the military ran the country from 1962 to 2011, fighting a number of civil wars in that period.
In 2011 the country returend to democracy and Aung San Suu Kyi was elected as prime minister. Her administration has been a democratic one but was marred with repression of the country's Muslim minority.
Even as a democracy the Army has had an outsized role in the administration of the country, and 25% of the country's parliamentary seats have been reserved for it. In addition to that, it has its own political party. That party lost ground in the recent election and the coup followed.
Who else is involved: The Burmese army has had support from China and Russia and in the lead up to the return to democracy it administered the country in a quasi Communist fashion. The army is known to have consulted with the Russians and the Chinese just prior to the coup and both nations have refrained from criticizing it.
Good guys and bad guys: Transitioning to democracy is generally a mess, something which tends to be missed by the Greenwich Village crowd, and few countries manage it without something to be ashamed of. Myanmar has had a long and difficult road on its way there and the army, which has had support from the NEP Corporate Communist in China, and the Neo Tsarists in Moscow, is having a difficult time realizing its day is done. It is done.
April 1, 2021
Ethiopia v. Oromo Liberation Front
The Oromo Liberation Front in Ethiopia killed 30 villagers in the Oromia region of that country.
What is it about: The organization seeks sovereignty for the Oromo people in Ethiopia who were independent as a practical matter up until the 19th Century. They maintain that since that time they've been dealing with oppression and a legacy of oppression.
Who else is involved: Presently no one. At one time Eritrea and Somalia supported the group, but they no longer do.
Good guys and bad guys: The overall cause of the Oromo's is something I know nothing about, nor do I know anything about their history, but killing villagers is inexcusable irrespective of the cause.
April 9, 2021
Iran v. Israel
Iran and Israel have been fighting a low level naval war against each other involving the targeting of ships. Attacks up until last week involved limpet minds set above the water line, which caused cosmetic damage. Last week, however, Israel appears to have targeted and severely damaged a floating base for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard that was stationed off of Yemen.
What is it about: Iran's theocratic government is dedicated to the destruction of Israel and the spread of Sunni Islam. It has never been shy about using force in that effort although it has tended not to use full scale force out of fear of that being counterproductive. Otherwise, however, it has generally openly acknowledged using any force it can and has sponsored a good deal of revolutionary and guerilla activity against in the region.
Who else is involved: It's hard to know, but Israel generally has the support of Sunni states and the US in its efforts, although it may not at anyone time be informing them of what it is doing.
Good guys and bad guys: Iran's theocracy is an anachronism that's at odds with its own people and nearly every state in the region. It will ultimately fall but constitutes a danger to everyone in the region, and to some extent well beyond that, until it does.
April 11, 2021
And, following up on the item from the 9th:
DUBAI, United Arab Emirates (AP) — Iran's underground Natanz nuclear facility lost power Sunday just hours after starting up new advanced centrifuges capable of enriching uranium faster, the latest incident to strike the site amid negotiations over the tattered atomic accord with world powers.
Hmmm. . . that's odd.
April 21, 2021
Chad v Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat
Idriss Deby, the President of Chad, was killed in action while visiting government troops fighting rebels in the northern part of the country. His son, a general in the army, was announced to be the acting head of state.
What is it about: Chad along with Algeria and other North African states have been combating the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat for some time. The rebels seek to impose a theocratic state in the region and are supporters of Al Queada.
Who else is involved: The conflict is a regional one so many countries in North Africa have a role in fighting it. France has troops in Chad supporting the government there.
Good guys and bad guys: Hardly needs to be asked in this case.
April 22, 2021
Israel v. Syria
An anti aircraft missile launched in Syria landed in Israel near the country's nuclear reactor. In return, Israel launched an airstrike on the Syrian battery.
What is it about: Syria has been hostile to Israel since Israel's founding and, moreover, is allied with Iran. The tension is heightened by Israeli's long occupation of the Golan Heights, which Syria lost decades ago in its fighting with Israel.
Who else is involved: Syria is allied with Iran. The two countries remain the most hostile Middle Eastern states towards Israel where as the majority of the states in the region have slowly come to accept its presence.
Good guys and bad guys: Syria's Baathist regime had a record of hostility towards its own people and is unrelentingly hostile to Israel in a manner which is fairly clearly standing against history and beyond reason.
May 11, 2021
Afghanistan
A bomb went off in Afghanistan yesterday resulting in destruction and lost of life. Its target was a school that educated girls. Nobody has taken credit and the Taliban denied any association with it.
What is it about: Radical Islamist are hostile to the education of women. This is part of the overall struggle in Afghanistan, and its been a feature of radical Islamist groups everywhere.
Who else is involved: Hard to say, as nobody is associating themselves with it.
Good guys and bad guys: This hardly needs to be asked, but its important to note that NATO's departure is likely to give groups that have this same view a renewed strength in Afghanistan.
France
Not really a war, but a warning of one, a large number of signatures have appeared on an open letter originating in the French army predicting a civil war in France between the native French and Muslims in the country. The letter portrays itself as an attempt to warn the nation and a promise that the French army will side with the native French.
This letter follows one from last month signed by 20 retired French generals.
Following publication of the letter, a French petition supporting it gained strength. Polls show a majority of Frenchmen endorse its views.
What is it about: Islamic immigration to France has been a hot button issue for many years. Secularization has been a policy of the French government since the French Revolution, with breaks in it from time to time, but France has been reluctant to impose it on Islamic immigrants and in spite of the country being very secular, traditional France is never very far from modern France.
Who else is involved: The extent to which this has support outside of the French army is unknown but its clear that a majority of the French are backing the views of the soldiers.
Good guys and bad guys: As this is a warning letter, and frankly one that's not likely to come true, the question isn't really valid here, but it is a sign that France, which has been struggling to deal with this issue for years, needs to devote some more attention to it.
United States v. Iran
The Coast Guard fired on Iranian speedboats that approached US vessels.
Hamas v. Israel.
The radical Islamic group Hamas fired rockets at Jerusalem yesterday. This followed clashes in the city between Israeli authorities and Palestinians. Israel retaliated with air raids into the Gaza strip.
What is it about: Hamas opposes Israel's existence as the overall cause, but the direct cause was a Hamas retaliation for Israeli efforts in Jerusalem. Hamas is a Palestinian organization and makes up the Gaza government.
Who else is involved: I don't know enough about Hamas to say.
Good guys and bad guys: Israel, pretty clearly, but this sort of event shows how complicated the situation in the Middle East really is. Hamas departed from Fatah in its goals in regard to Palestine and that's operating to keep this conflict going.
May 14, 2021
Hamas v. Israel
This has been massively expanding over the past few days with Hamas, which is politically in control of Gaza, firing 2,000 missiles at Israel, most of which have been intercepted by Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system.
Israel's military capacity grossly over matches Hamas' and Gaza exist as a Palestinian entity solely due to Israel's political calculations to allow it to do so. The launching of missiles by Hamas is deeply immoral as it must provoke a retaliation by Israel and that will kill Palestinian civilians no matter how careful Israel is, which Hamas knows.
As of today, Israel has expanded its counterstrikes to include ground based artillery. There's a serious chance that the Israeli army may invade Gaza. As Israel deems it politically necessary that the tolerate the Gaza Strip as a Palestinian entity, and nobody who borders it (Israel and Egypt) want to actually occupy it, that is highly problematic, but it becomes more likely every day.
One thing that won't occur is a general Middle Easter war, contrary to the overblown commentary on this. Egypt, which as noted borders Gaza, doesn't want it and doesn't want anything to do with it. The Palestinian Authority, under Fatah has fought a war itself with Hamas. Jordan isn't going to its aid, and has fought a war against Fatah when it was the only representative of the Palestinians. Syria is more or less in a low grade war with Israel all the time and constantly ineffectual in it.
This leaves Israel a semi free hand as long as it doesn't go too far.
May 20, 2021
Hamas v. Israel
I'm not an unqualified admirer of Israel. Indeed, quite frankly, had I been around in 1948, I'd have been one of the few Americans, seemingly, who would have held the opinion that forming the state of Israel was a mistake. By 1948 the long Jewish diaspora, the history of the region after 70, meant that it had entirely too many ethnicities in it in order to have a state founded for a single ethnicity which was identified with a single religion a good idea. Indeed, had I been around in 1918, and if I were British, I wouldn't have accepted a League of Nations mandate over the territory and would have instead proposed that it perpetually be internationally administered, a solution which likely would have been no more successful than the one that was imposed.
Be that as it may, the British did accept the mandate and during their period of governance they presided, reluctantly, over the immigration of the diaspora to the region which added to its native Jewish population, but at the expense of the local Arab one, a solution which caused them to be nervous and made them, quite frankly, susceptible to bigotry, sometimes violent bigotry. When the British threw their hands up and marched out in 1948 the result was inevitable. Israel declared independence, the Arab population refused to accept it, the neighboring Arab states didn't accept it either, and war broke out immediately. That in turn caused most of the native Arab population, or at least the Muslim Arab population, to flee.
The native Arab population, defining themselves as Palestinians, put up an armed, and sometimes terroristic, resistance to the results of the 1948 war for decades. Israel, backed by the United States, was able to ride it out. The Palestinians turned violent against the nations that hosted them on two occasions, those nations being Jordan and Lebanon, and ultimately the remaining Arab states grew tired of them. Israel grew tired of the war too and ultimately accommodated a small degree of autonomy for the Palestinians in what had been the West Bank of Jordan and in Gaza. Of note, you can take from that, that Jordan, which for years claimed the West Bank, was content to give it up to the Palestinians which meant that it didn't have to bother with them and Egypt, which borders Gaza, is basically hostile to Gaza.
The reason that I note this is that demographics change and a territory ultimately belongs to the people who occupy it.
Palestinian claims on Israeli territory today are completely moot in real terms, save for the growing Israeli Arab population. So Hamas' claims on Israel are not only fanciful, at this point they're deeply lacking in justice. Very few people in Gaza today ever lived inside of what is now Israel. Fatah has accepted that, Hamas has not.
That forms the background for what is now occurring. Israel acted wrongly during Ramadan in excluding Muslims form a site important to their faith. There's no excuse for that. And Arab riots in Israel, which got all of this rolling, were therefore to be expected. But launching rockets from inside a city in reaction is wrong in every way. It's a gross over reaction and it not only invites, but demands, a response that will kill civilians. Hamas, by doing that, is murdering its own people. It knows that.
Gaza only exists as an entity at all as Israel doesn't want it and Egypt doesn't either, and the global community feels that its more just to keep a hopeless city state deep in poverty than admitting its untenable.
Gaza has 2,000,000 residents. Israel obviously can't take in the city and doesn't want to. Egypt could, but it doesn't want to and won't. If it did, it'd largely clear out quickly.
And it should be cleared out. There's no way to live there and there's no solution to its existence which makes sense. The government of Gaza doesn't even get along with the Palestinian Authority on the West Bank. 2,000,000 people are a lot of people, but realistically the only solution is to evacuate them and redistribute them to the other Arab states. Those Arab states, however, won't agree to do that.
Gaza's residents, of course, could aid themselves by being realistic. They chose Hamas, and by choosing Hamas they chose an entity dedicated to deathly conduct and the invitation to rain death down on their own city. Their situation is tragic, but the tragedy is all the more compounded as they invited it and refuse, even now, to recognize that.
May 21, 2021
Hamas v. Israel
This ended yesterday in a cease fire.
For some odd reason, the Press has declared that both sides could declare victory. Israel's Iron Dome missile defense held up, with only a few Hamas rockets getting through, whereas Israel hit numerous targets in Gaza about which Hamas could do nothing. It's hard to see how Hamas achieved anything, other than getting a lot of Gaza destroyed and some of its residents killed.
The details of the agreement are unknown. It was brokered by Egypt.
A lot of criticism was levied inside the US, inside the US, at a supposed lack of US action to bring about a ceasefire earlier, but its really unclear what influence the US really would have in this instance. Over Hamas, probably none. Over Israel, some, but fairly little in this circumstance. Beyond that, a solid reason for the US to act isn't obvious, given the nature of the conflict and its localized nature. Interestingly American left wing politicians were the most vocal in their views and somewhat with their sympathy with the residents of Gaza.
Those residents do indeed deserve sympathy, but the deserve a level of pitiful scorn as well. Hamas led the city into the one sided conflict that invited retaliation on them and they should toss Hamas out, which there's no sign that they shall do. In any event, at the end of the day, an overall solution to this problem is no closer than it ever was by all appearances.
June 7, 2021
Russia v. The United States
The weekend shows were full of discussion about recent cyber attacks on the US and their relationship with Russia, and to a much lesser extent, their relationship with China. By and large, most of the discussion involved a lot of handwringing and discussions on how to harden American industry from such attacks and what we can do to force our enterprises to take steps to protect themselves and the economy.
Only on This Week, to the extent I listened, did the topic of a military response come up, which wasn't rejected by the administration representative.
I note that for something that should be pretty obvious, but seemingly isn't. In unconventional asymmetric warfare, which is what this really is, its difficult to win through purely defense measures and only really unpredictable responses stand to succeed.
What is going on is this.
Russia has practically become a criminal organization but is treated by the nations of the world as a serious state, which it isn't. It's army is large but obsolete. Compared to its neighbors its population is now small and declining. What it really has going for it, to the extent it has anything going for it, is a leader who is single minded, doesn't mind corruption at all, and who is willing to destroy his neighbors' economies rather than build a solid, non criminal, one of his nation's own.
We'll end up talking sanctions, but at some point in a war of state sponsored piracy, which is what this is, you have to take steps that are more direct.
The Golden Age of Piracy came to an end when the various nations of the world wouldn't tolerate it, including not tolerating state sponsored piracy. Increased military action against pirates were part of that. It should be noted that the era also featured a lot of private, direct, action.
In other words, Colonial Pipeline's been hit. There's nothing that should keep it from hiring a U.S. company to hit Russian pirates back. As they're sailing on the seas of the internet, they're vulnerable somehow.
As Russia is involved, and Russia has assets, simply appropriating them directly and selling them for the benefit of the hit should be considered.
And then there is military action. If an electronic communication facility in Russia somewhere is used for this, I'm confident we've long had plans to take such things down and out. Russia ought to worry about that, and worry about it to the extent that it stops this sort of behavior. Or maybe a country with thousands of miles of pipeline ought to be made to be giving serious thought on how it would protect all them. . . physically.
Of course, by this point, it maybe can't wrestle itself free from crime. Nobody really knows what Putin's relationship with anyone is. He may be as much the slave of criminals as he is their benefactor. Of course, he also controls the current expression of the KGB, so he can likely act if he wants to.
Anyway its looked at, from Russian interference in recent elections to these campaigns against commerce, this has to be brought to a stop.
June 15, 2021
United States v. Iraq
The Biden Administration is supporting a bill in Congress to repeal the 2002 act authorizing the use of force in Iraq.
As the administration has noted, the authorization is no longer needed as fighting in Iraq has largely concluded and what remains is not of the type requiring this sort of authorization.
Additionally, bills like this, which shade the question of whether a war exist or not, are questionable in the first place. The invasion of Iraq was a full scale conventional war which under U.S. law required a declaration of war in order to be legal. While other post World War Two conflicts involving the US arguably did not legally require that, this fairly obviously did, so the legality of the war itself was called into question by no declaration of war having been issued, or sought.
June 15, 2021
Israel v. Hamas
No sooner did a new Israeli government form which stands to be much less hard line than the previous one than did the misguided bloody agents of Hamas launch, of all the really stupid things, an incendiary balloon attack on the country.
This predictably resulted in Israeli air strikes on Gaza.
June 28, 2021
Taliban v. Afghan Government
In the wake of the American withdrawal/surrender in Afghanistan, the Taliban is now advancing so quickly it's pace has surprised even itself.
Local Afghan militias, a feature of the wars in Afghanistan since the Soviet invasion, are forming once again to defend their local regions.
June 28, 2021, cont.
United States v. Iran.
The United states conducted air strikes on Iranian backed militias today on the Iraqi-Syria border. These groups have been involved in drone strikes on US sites in Iraq.
July 1, 2021
NATO v. Taliban
During the last week, Poland, Germany and Italy withdrew the last of their troops from Afghanistan. Like many people, I'd forgotten there were still non US NATO troops in Afghanistan.
July 2, 2021
Afghanistan
The United States has completely departed Afghanistan's Bagram Air Force Base.
As the US races to withdraw by the end of this month the Taliban is rapidly gaining ground and local militias to contest them have been forming.
July 26, 2021
Iraq
Apparently the U.S. military mission to Iraq will now be drawn down and conclude as well. The President is supposed to announce something to this effect today.
July 27, 2021
Iraq
And the President did announce that the US is withdrawing from Iraq. In reality, 2,000 troops will remain, so there's actually very little that will change.
This is the second time that the US has announced a withdrawal from the country. The first time was when President Obama did the same. Events following that reinserted some troops, but they are now back down to a low level and will remain at that fairly low level. The remaining troops will not have a combat role.
August 5, 2021
Iran v Israel
Iranian backed militias fired rockets from bases in Lebanon into Israel. Israel has responded with artillery fire.
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