Showing posts with label Russian Army. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Russian Army. Show all posts

Tuesday, August 30, 2022

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Six

M577 howitzers in Ukraine.  The British designed howitzer has been supplied to the Ukrainian forces by the United States, Canada and Australia.  It is arguably the best towed artillery piece in the world.  By Arsen Fedosenko - https://www.facebook.com/CinCAFU/posts/309101904718635, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=117964601

May 24, 2022

Yes, part six.  In a normal year, there's one version of this all year long.  This year, thanks to Russia forgetting that it's not 1945, we're in the sixth installment.

Which is to say that the war in Ukraine has caused the massive ongoing expansion of this thread.

Okay, situation wise, where are we?

Here's the history of the war to date, in the map that demonstrates the Russian advance. . . and retreat.


By MaitreyaVaruna & Bacon Noodles - Own work derived from File:2022 Russian invasion of Ukraine.svg, originally by ViewsridgeItself derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115563226

Even now, what the initial Russian objects were remains clouded. The best guess is that Putin, seeing Ukraine headed towards increased alignment with the West, including culturally, economically, and formally, determined to intervene when he could before the opportunity evaporated.  The only thing that was keeping Ukraine from joining the European Union and NATO was the ongoing war over the Donbas, stretching back to 2014.

After four years of Donald Trump's oddly pro Russian administration, in which US aid and support of Ukraine was done largely against Trump's will, Putin may also have thought that this period of time provided an added window, or again the only available opportunity.  Whatever the case, a decade of Western military training and support of Ukraine's military, provided in no small part by US National Guard units, had radically altered the nature of the Ukrainian military, making it a modern Western one.  Russia's, however, remained the poor army based on massed men with bad tactics and no NCO corps that it has been since 1917.  Drunk on the myth of the victory over Nazi Germany in 1945, in which the Russians have been taught that the Red Army accomplished this largely on its own, and equipped with inferior weaponry, the Russians believed that they'd roll over Ukraine in just a few days.  At that point, they likely would have simply incorporated all of Ukraine back into a Russian Empire, or perhaps taken much of the eastern half of the country and left a satellite rump state in the West.

Instead, a  highly trained and motivated Ukrainian Army stopped them in their tracks to a large degree, and then began to reduce the Russians, who proved to be deployed ineptly and to fight just as poorly, in place.  As this occurred, the West, led by President Biden, rallied to Ukraine and began to supply it with weapons.  Had Donald Trump been President, this would not have occurred.

The weaponry supplied to Ukraine at first was mostly in the nature of Soviet pattern weaponry that former members of the Warsaw Pact retained, matching what Ukraine already used.  Included in what they were receiving, however, were Western anti tank and anti-aircraft missiles, which proved to be absolutely devastating.  Even early on, some Western small arms came in, however.  Now, as Ukraine has regained the ground in the north that it lost, much more in the way of Western equipment is coming in, including Western artillery.  Supplies to Ukraine are increasing in lethality, as the West has gone from small arms, ammunition and missiles, to larger weapons systems.

 Russia has proven unable to deal with any of this.  Speculation that it would overcome the Ukrainians in the north proved completely in error.  Taking the city of Mariupol took weeks, assuming that it even has really been fully taken now.  Speculation that withdrawing from the north meant forces would redeploy in the east failed to take into account that Russian forces have been so downgraded that many units have been reduced to ineffectual.

Economic boycotts of Russia are wrecking the Russian economy and may be approach a point where that will beyond repair.  Efforts to replenish and resupply Russian forces have failed.  Open criticism of Russian military performance inside of Russia, by pro-government persons and entities, has started to increase.  An organization of retired Russian officers has called for a full declaration of war combined with mobilization, something that the Russians probably can't pull off now.  Ukraine has been open that its war aim now is to recover all of the land lost in the 2014 Russian invasion.


Russia's actions have managed to unite the West to a degree it hasn't been in decades.  Its military is discredited in every sense, including morally.  How this ends is now being discussed openly, but no matter how it ends, it will be some species of Russian defeat.

May 26, 2022

Moscow has raised the age limit, previously 40, to 50, in which volunteer for service in the Russian army.

May 26, 2022, cont.

Governor Gordon Thanks Law Enforcement Personnel for Ukraine Donations

 

CHEYENNE, Wyo. –  Governor Gordon has extended his appreciation to members of Wyoming’s law enforcement community for donating used equipment to assist the people of Ukraine.

Coordinated by the Wyoming Office of Homeland Security, the statewide effort involved outreach to multiple agencies across the state. The effort resulted in the donation of more than 200 interior and exterior ballistic vests; panels that can be used to assemble an additional 80 vests; rifle plates for the vests; helmets and boots. In addition, six pallets of medical-grade wipes were donated.

“I want to thank law enforcement in Wyoming for stepping up and providing this needed equipment for the Ukrainian people,” Governor Gordon said.

Donations came from across the state, including Albany, Carbon, Converse and Sublette County Sheriff’s Offices; police departments in Glenrock, Powell, Rock Springs, Sheridan and Torrington; Wyoming Division of Criminal Investigation; Wyoming Highway Patrol; and the Wyoming Livestock Board.

-END-

May 28, 2022

Russian forces have been trying to take Severodonetsk, but they've failed to encircle the city and their progress has been slow.  They have, however, entered part of the city.

They've also been countering a Ukrainian offensive attempt to reclaim Kherson.

Ukrainian partisans units are now operating in the South in areas occupied by the Russians.

May 30, 2022

The Russians, back up by artillery, have been attempting a direct assault of Severodonetsk, abandoning the envelopment strategy they had been deploying.

Orthodoxy in Ukraine saw a split in loyalties before the war commenced, with the head of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church seeking, and receiving, recognition from the head of the Greek Orthodox Church of autocephalous status.  When that occurred, the Russian Orthodox Church, which it had been part of, refused to recognize that.  Now, that portion of the Ukrainian Orthodox Church which remained loyal to the Russian Metropolitan declared its full independence.

This is a confusing situation because if it is independent, its position seemingly now matches that of the larger portion of the church was severed from Moscow prior to the war.

June 1, 2022

The EU has agreed to mostly end oil imports from Russia by the end of the year.

The Russians have largely taken Severodonetsk, but at the same time the Ukrainians are doing well near Kherson.

Belorussia is releasing stores of military equipment to Russia.

Some Russian recruitment centers in Russia have been subjected to attacks by Russians.

June 4, 2022

In spite of dire predictions, fighting goes on in Severondonetsk.  Indeed, it seems Ukrainian units backfilled areas taken by the Russians after they were through then.  They appear largely stalled almost everywhere.

After repeated pleas for them, the US is indicating it will supply four HIMARS systems to Ukraine.

Note, it's only four.


The system is incredibly advanced and accurate.  It's replaced heavy artillery, along with other similar rocket systems in the US inventory.

The rockets are GPS guided, which results in an interesting open additional step for the U.S. in that U.S. satellites are now openly and obviously part of Ukrainian targeting, or will soon be.

June 6, 2022

Russia has hit Kyiv with missiles again, striking a railway repair station.

Russian Maj. Gen Roman Kutuzov was killed in action.

A Ukrainian counter-attack has taken back parts of Severodonetsk.

June 10, 2022

The Russians are in fact deploying T-62s in Ukraine, a tank first introduced in 1961, a tank that is generally regarded as having been outclassed by the British Chieftain and the American M60 shortly after its introduction.  They are also pulling mines out of storage that were manufactured in the 1950s, and 152mm howitzers and MRLS systems that were in storage and are of older models.

Front lines have been nearly static.

June 16, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

Fighting remains fairly static and in fact is still going on in Severondonetsk. Ukraine has desperately been asking for more artillery.

Ikea is selling its Russian factories.

War On ISIL

A U.S. ground raid in Syria today resulted in the capture of a senior ISIL leader.

June 17, 2022

The leaders of Germany, France, Italy and Romania committed to not requiring Ukraine to terms to end the war.  In effect, this is a pledge of unconditional support.

Up to three American volunteers have been reported missing in action in Ukraine.

June 18, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Commander of Russian Airborne Forces Colonel-General Andrey Serdyukov has been relieved of his command due to the poor performance of Russian airborne forces in the war.

Afghanistan.

A terrorist attack in Kabul targeted a Sikh temple.

June 24, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine has ordered its forces to withdraw from Sievierodonetsk

Ukraine has been approved as a candidate for membership in the EU, the Russian war effort therefore having brought about one of the very things Putin hoped to prevent.  Obtaining membership will require Ukraine to meet a set of conditions, including an ongoing committement to democracy and rooting out entrenched corruption in the government.

The Russian Navy has been ordered to mine Ukraine's Black Sea ports.

Ukraine has pummeled installations on Snake Island.

June 28, 2022

Russia has defaulted in its debt, the first time a major country has done so since 1918.

A Russian missle strike hit a shopping mall in Kremenchuk.

Russian manpower shortages have run up against a Russian desire to avoid a general mobilization, which is interesting in that there's nothing other than public opinion that really precludes the Russians calling one.  They're obviously reluctant to do so, as it would of course mean that they're have a difficult time with a much smaller neighbor.

June 28, 2022, cont

Statement by President of the Republic of Finland Sauli Niinistö on 28 June 2022

Office of the President of the Republic of Finland
Press release 41/2022
28 June 2022

Today in Madrid, before the beginning of the NATO Summit, we had a thorough meeting with President of Türkiye Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and Prime Minister of Sweden Magdalena Andersson, facilitated by Secretary General of NATO Jens Stoltenberg.

As a result of that meeting, our foreign ministers signed a trilateral memorandum which confirms that Türkiye will at the Madrid Summit this week support the invitation of Finland and Sweden to become members of NATO. The concrete steps of our accession to NATO will be agreed by the NATO Allies during the next two days, but that decision is now imminent.

Our joint memorandum underscores the commitment of Finland, Sweden and Türkiye to extend their full support against threats to each other’s security. Us becoming NATO Allies will further strengthen this commitment.

Over the past weeks, Türkiye has raised its concerns over the threat of terrorism. Finland has constantly taken these concerns seriously. Finland condemns terrorism in all its forms and manifestations. As a NATO member, Finland will commit fully to the counterterrorism documents and policies of NATO.

As we enhance our cooperation on counterterrorism, arms exports and extraditions, Finland naturally continues to operate according to its national legislation.

I am delighted to conclude this stage on Finland’s road to NATO membership. I now look forward to fruitful conversations on Finland’s role in NATO with our future Allies here in Madrid.

June 30, 2022

The big overall news is that the way is now clear for NATO membership for Finland and Sweden to go to the member countries parliaments for approval, with approval almost assured.

In large part, Russia launched this war to keep Ukraine from entering the EU and then later joining NATO.  During the war its drawn close to both, and now NATO has expanded.

Russia has withdrawn from Snake Island, which it took early in the war.   The island likely never had any strategic value to their war effort and overall they more than paid for taking it.

July 3, 2022

Ukrainian forces withdrew from Lysychansk, allowing the Russians to take the city.

July 7, 2022

No doubt expressing frustration with the NATO support to Ukraine, lead by the United States, a Putin ally threatened that Russia may seek to "take back" Alaska.

The war itself was static yesterday, perhaps expressing a Russian pause, probably by necessity, after recent gains.

July 15, 2022

Russia is looking at procuring drones from Iran.

Russia is also conducting a largescale recruiting drive for volunteer battalions raised for the war, and from its federal regions.  This is interesting in that they're not really conventional soldiers in the Russian Army, but sort of regional volunteers.  

Russia has been having trouble raising manpower for the war, and it hsa been unwilling to formally mobilize for various reasons.

July 22, 2022

In an extremely unusual wartime deal, Russia and Ukraine both entered into agreements with the UN and Turkey which allow for grain exports from the region as well Russian fertilizer to safely leave Black Sea ports.

While neutrals intervening on freedom of commerce and freedom of the seas to allow such things to happen has happened in the past, warring parties agreeing to such an arrangment is extremely unusual.

July 27, 2022

Current state of the war according to the British Ministry of Defense:


The Russians seem to be trying to consolidate their gains in the Donbas region prior to attempting to annex it. The Ukrainians are trying to take it back against heavy odds.

July 28, 2022

Ukraine has used percision U.S. missles to wipe out the use of the Antonivskyi Bridge across the Dnieper River.  The .9 mile long structure was used by the Russians to supply their forces at Kherson.

Russia launched massive missle strikes against Ukrainian targets yesterday, including Kyiv.

The Russians are down to only two ground offensive operations as they apparently not able to sustain more.  They're also importing non Russian workers into the Donbas due to Ukrainian civil resistance to going back to work in the region.

August 3, 2022
  • China/Taiwan
Red China is conducting military maneuvers in a childish reaction to Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi visiting Taiwan.

Senior US figures have visited Tawian before, but not for 25 years.  In the intervening quarter century China's ecnomic importance has risen dramatically, something which was exposed due to COVID 19 shortages, but overall the country is much weaker than generally supposed, or than it itself figues.  It has started, in all regards, to act much in the same way that late stage Imperial Germany did.
  • Afghanistan/Al Qaida
The United States killed a senior Al Qaeda leader who had particiapted in the 9/11 attacks by way of a drone strike inside of Aghanistan.

The US of course withdrew from the country in 2021, but still asserts the right to strike Al Qaeda and other figures who are operating within the country.

August 3, cont:

The U.S. Senate voted 95 to 1 to admit Finland and Norway to NATO.

Josh Hawley, Missouri, cast the only note vote.

ugust 5, 2022
  • China/Taiwan
Taking a childish page out of North Korea's temper tantrum cartoon book, China fired missiles yesterday to show that they're feeling upset and that they have missiles, this of course following Nancy Pelosi's visit to the island.
  • Russo Ukrainian War
A Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson Oblast, southern Ukraine, has caused Russia to halt its offensive operations and redeploy troops in the south and Crimea.  This is pretty ample proof of Russia's inability to conduct multiple operations at one time, and of their fear that the Ukrainian offensive may start regaining lost ground.

Russia has been shelling near a Ukrainian nuclear power plant which is the largest in Europe, repeating its earlier stupidity from a different nuclear site earlier in the war.

Power use restrictions have been going into place in Europe due to the withdrawal of Russian petroleum.

August 6, 2022
  • China/Taiwan
China has cut cooperation with the United States over a host of issues, including climate change, due to its pique over Nancy Pelosi's trip to Taiwan.

North Korea entered the game and is also criticizing the US over the same matter, which of course is of little importance as North Korea is pretty much universally irrelevant except as a regional menace.

Speaking of North Korea. . . 
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
North Korea has offered Russia 100,000 troops to fight in Ukraine.  It's been noted that this would mean that Russia would have to feed 100,000 North Koreans that North Korea has trouble doing.

I doubt Russia will take this offer up as it would probably be more trouble than it would be worth, in spite of the infusion of 100,000 men.  If it does, the North Koreans will principally be cannon fodder.

A top Russian researcher on hypersonic weapons has been arrested for high treason.
  • Israel/Gaza
Israel launched airstrikes into Gaza to address threats it states its identified.  Retaliation came in the form of missile strikes.

August 8, 2022
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
Putin has apparently relieved three senior Russian generals from their commands within the past week.
  • Israel/Gaza
The parties have entered into a truce which seems to be holding.

August 9, 2022

Russia is believed to have sustained over 80,000 casualties in Ukraine so far, of which reportedly 42,000 have been killed.

In comparison, the Russians lost around 15,000 men in their war in Afghanistan.

The U.S. is sending an additional $1B in weapons to Ukraine.

August 12, 2022

Russia has been recruiting from its prison system for soldiers, offering them the end of their prison terms if they will enlist in the Russian army to fight in Ukraine.  

It is also mobilizing, or putting on a war time footing, its defense industry.

August 14, 2022

A news report holds that Ukrainian partisan action is increasing in occupied areas.

Ukraine whiped out another bridge that was vital to the Russians resupplying their troops at Kherson.

August 15, 2022

The Russians are attempting to take Donestk.

August 16, 2022

The Russian Army has left 20,000 troops stranded on the western bank of the Dnipro due to a withdrawal made necessary by Ukrainian action near Kherson.

August 17, 2022

Apparent partisan action or commando action set off a Russian ammo dump in Crimea.

August 21, 2022
  • Somalia
Al-Sabab seized a hotel in Mogodeshu which has now been retaken by Somalian security forces which in turn freed over 100 captives that were seized by the Islamic militants in the raid.

If there's any good news in this it would be that Somalia is sufficiently organized now so as to have security forces.
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.

August 23, 2022

Ukraine has announced that 9,000 of its troops have died in the war so far.

August 24, 2022
  • United States/Islamic militants
The U.S. conducted an air strike on Iranian backed militants in Syria after a recent drone attack on an installaation the U.S. uses in Syria.
  • Russo-Ukrainian War
Russia has placed approximately 1,000 children, presumably orphaned in some fashion, with Russian adoptive familes.  Relocating children with the intent to destroy their culture is defined as genocide.

Reluctance by the residents of Luhansk to continue to fight in the Russian war has caused Russia to deploy sercurity forces to the oblast.

August 29, 2022
Russian ultra nationalist philosopher Alexander Dugin's daughter, Daria, was killed by a car bomb outside of Moscow.
A new Russian anti Putin Russian organization has taken credit for this attack.

August 30, 2022

Ukraine has launched an offensive in the Kherson Oblast.

The move was expected, and publicly announced yesterday.  It may determine the results of the war.

Last prior edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Five


Recent related threads:

Monday, April 11, 2022

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Four


From a handbill at a University of Wyoming protest, photo by MKTH.

March 27, 2022

Russo-Ukrainian War

In a typical year, the Wars and Rumors of Wars thread last the entire year.  Not this year, we're on to the fourth edition, and the war in Ukraine is the reason why.

Let's start with the situation on the ground, and the status of that is this.  Over the last week, the Russians lost ground.

March 27, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

While it would probably serve to compare this to the map last put up in the prior edition of this tread, we'll simply note here that the Russians lost a lot of ground in the north.  But they also lost it in the south. From the appearances of things, the Ukrainians are mounting a relief effort on Mariupol, and they've made up a lot of lost ground.

As we noted yesterday:

March 26, 2022

Russia declared yesterday that its goal in the war had been to take all the Donbas region and that the larger offensive was just a diversion, a claim that's fairly obviously baloney.  More likely, this signals an effort to recast the war in that light, perhaps to the Russians themselves, in an effort to declare victory and potentially wind the operation down in light of the difficulties it has been facing.

The announcement is quite significant, however, as it signals the war has likdly entered a new phase with Russian forces going, at least temporarily, into a defensive posture.

Russian forces have ceased offensive actions near Kyvi and gone on the defensive.  Ukrainian forces have been on the offensive there in recent days.

The BBC reports that the Russians have lost a total of six generals in the war in Ukraine.  In contrast, the United States lost 12 generals during the long Vietnam War, and one in Afghanistan.

Quite frankly, this war has been amazingly revealing regarding Russia and its military capabilities.  The West has consistently overestimated the fighting capacity of Russia, dating back at least to World War One, and it very obviously did so again.  The Russian Army was widely assumed to essentially be the Red Army with a new name, and that in fact may be its trouble.

The troops are bottom of the barrel conscripts, armed for the most part with outdated equipment. Russian tanks, always thought to be beyond reproach since the truly excellent T-34 and other late World War Two Soviet tanks, are junk.  Their design thesis, which emphasized low profile and low weight, proves to have been spectacularly in error.  That the Russians are now ceasing the offensive gives strong evidence of this.  Ukrainian infantrymen repeatedly destroying Russian tanks with shoulder fired missiles as if they're opening cans with a can opener can't be ignored forever.

Ukraine's military, in contrast, has had a decade of Western assistance and is evolving into a Western army.  President Zelinskyy pointedly noted this last week when, addressing NATO, he noted that he didn't ever want to hear again that Ukraine's army isn't up to NATO standards.

Zelinskyy has begged for heavier Western weapons, and frankly in my view he should be given them.  Western nations maintain thousands of older weapons that, frankly, are better than those which are first line for the Russians.  In terms of armor, stored M60 and late M48 tanks are pretty clearly better than the Russian ones, as the late use of M60s in Iraq by the Marine Corps demonstrated.  Assistance now needs to emphasize offensive weapons, of which we have a fair number of older stored models.  As Volodymyr Zelenskyy has pointed out, even a small percentage of our newer ones would be significant assistance to Ukraine.

In the long run, that assistance would be assistance to Russia and the world as well.  Putin cannot survive defeat in Ukraine, and it's questionable whether he can survive what has, in effect, been a massive military failure.  In 1990, it looked for a time as if Russia would evolve into a real democracy, something that Russian democrats have struggled to create since the late 1800s.  Under Yeltsin, it was on its way, until Putin, dragged it back.  If Putin falls, Russia may fall into democracy, at long last.

March 28, 2022

Ukraine signaled yesterday that it would consider as a negotiation result for an end to the war, or a ceasefire, a Russian withdrawal to that territory Russia occupied prior to the war and an official neutral status for Ukraine, with that neutrality guaranteed by outside powers.

Russians are laying mines in the areas that they have dug in at, north of Kyiv.

President Biden in a speech stated that Putin could not remain in power, a statement that was walked back by the administration nearly immediately thereafter.

On the weekend shows, Face The Nation had really good analysis of the state of the war, something television and the news in general frequently does not.

March 30, 2022

While the claim was greeted with nearly universal skepticism, the Russians claim that they are pulling back from the area around Kyiv in a show of good faith.

March 31, 2022

Declassified US intelligence reports indicate that Putin is being misled by his own advisors on the progress of the war in Ukraine.  Putin has reportedly become very isolated in general, and his advisors apparently fear telling him the truth.

Russia has kept up strikes on cities in spite of its promise to pull back.  US defense analysis feel that Russia is merely redeploying its forces to the east, but that may fail to give credit to the level of attrition that forces around Kyiv have sustained which may, in fact, make them incapable of being redeployed.

Ukraine hit targets inside of Russia with artillery yesterday for the first time in the war.

President Biden promised Ukraine 500,000,000 in additional aid.

March 31, 2022 cont:

Ukrainians have retaken Chernobyl.

Russian soldiers who were at Chernobyl are now sick with acute radiation poisoning.  Several days ago it was noted that they had dug into radioactive soil.

Russian Air Force planes armed with nuclear weapons violated Swedish airspace on March 2, interrupting a joint Swedish/Finnish exercise.

April 1, 2022

It seems relatively well established that Ukrainian helicopters raided an oil storage facility at Belgorod today. Belgorod is north of Kharkiv, in Russia.

The odd thing is the Russians are complaining about it.

What kind of weird mindset do you actually have to be possessed of in order to invade a neighboring country, and bombard its cities for days, and then be shocked, amazed, and upset, when they cross your border and wipe something out?

The more amazing thing, I suppose, is that the Ukrainians have recovered the initiative to this extent and that the Russians are doing so badly that their border, at least in this instance, is now porous.

April 2, 2022

Ukraine has now pushed the Russians out of the areas that they had taken near Kyiv.

April 2, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

In the east, an offensive had recaptured an area in the northeast all the way to the Russian border.

In the south, the Russians have gained ground west of the Dneiper.

The Pentagon is warning of a major Russian offensive in the east being imminent.

Withdrawing Russian forces are mining some of the areas they are withdrawing from.

Ukrainian Generals Naumov Andriy Olehovych and Kryvoruchko Serhiy Oleksandrovych, both of whom had intelligence roles, have been cashiered from the Ukrainian Army under allegations of treason.

April 3, 2022

Former United Nations chief prosecutor for war crimes tribunals for the former Yugoslavia and Rwanda, Carla Del Ponte,  has called for an international arrest warrant to be issued for Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Maks Levin (Максим Євгенович Левін) Ukrainian press photographer, was killed by Russian soldiers while covering the Russian invasion of Ukraine where he had recently been documenting Russian war crimes.

April 5, 2022

North Korea v. South Korea.

North Korea's Kim Yo Jong, sister of North Korean dictator Kim Jong-Un, issued a statement in which she declared that North Korea is prepared to eliminate the South Korean military. This followed a South Korean statement the other day that labeled North Korea as the enemy and declared that South Korean is capable of taking out the North Korean military in a preemptive strike. 

The war in Ukraine has to be unsettling to North Korea in that its military is based on the Soviet model, as are their weapons, both of which are failing at an epic rate right now.

April 5, 2022, cont:

Russo Ukrainian War

The Czech Republic has been and is sending T-72 tanks to Ukraine.  It's considering repairing Ukrainian tanks inside the Czech Republic.  Other rolling equipment is being sent as well.

April 6, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

President Zelenskyy basically called the United Nations out on the carpet yesterday, pointing out the irony that an organization in which Russia has a veto can't really stand for its principals.  He asked for the UN to reform itself, and to aid Ukraine.

This situation map has changed dramatically in the last view days.

April 6, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

The war is now concetrated in the east and southeast, with the Russian offensive in the north not only halted, but all Russian gains eliminated due to Ukrainian counteroffensives and successful defensive operations, resulting in Russian withdrawals.  Defense analysts repeated warn that Russian forces are redeploying, which may be correct.  Ukrainain forces are also redeploying, however, and have much shorter interior lines.  My guess is that Russian forces will be completely pushed out of the northeast in the next few days.

An open question is the extent to which Russian forces are actually being withdrawn as they've been destroyed to teh level of being combat ineffective, something that has received little attention.  The units in the north were engaged in heavy combat since the start of the war and may be so seriously depoeted in men and equipment that they cannot be reconstituted and returned to combat quickly, if at all.

Russian forces in the southeast have regained ground that they'd earlier taken but were pushed out of last week.

The Russians have been hitting Odessa with missles which has led to speculation on whether they intend to attempt to land there, although I doubt that they will.

As Russian forces have withdrawn, evidence of rape and murder, including the murder of women and children, has been coming forth.  This has been a hallmark of the Russian forces since the late Second World War and is something that has been mentioned here already, but which has now appeared in several other venues, including written ones, and on Face The Nation.  It's difficult to explain how this seems to have become such a feature of Russian forces, but its now been noted that not only was this a feature of their behavior in the late Second World War, but also in their more recent actions in Chechya.  It's now been perpetrated against Ukrainians, which takes it to a new height, in a way, in that during the Second World War it was somewhat excused as actions taken in revenge for German atrocities on Soviet soil, and in Chechnya it was basically ignored as that conflict was basically ignored.  Now, however, Russian soldiers are murdering members of a culture whose invasion was presented as one to "liberate" a people that Putin claims are really Russians.

All this gets back, of course, to yesterday's speech by Zelenskyy and an earlier statement by President Biden.  The question of how Putin can remain in control of one of Russia, which has now invaded a neighbor and whose troops have engaged in rape and murder, is a good one.  And how the UN can maintain legitimacy with Russia in the Security Council is as well.

April 11, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

April 11, 2022
By Viewsridge - Own work, derivate of Russo-Ukraine Conflict (2014-present).svg by Rr016Missile attacks source: BNO NewsTerritorial control source: ISW & Template:Russo-Ukrainian War detailed map, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=115506141

Northern and Northeastern Ukraine have now been liberated from Russian control and the war, right now, is about the east and southeast.

Alexander Dvornikov, age 60, has been placed in commanad of the Russian effort.  He has prior combat command experience from Syria.  It is widely speculated that the Russians shall commences a renewed offensive in the east to consolidate their gains there.

The Russians hit a train station a couple of days ago in a missle strike, killing up to fifty civilians.  One of the missles was marked "for the children".

Congo

The rebel group M23 from areas that it recently took in the eastern part of the country so that negotiations could take place.  The group lead a rebellion in 2014.

April 11, 2022, cont.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russia, by requiring payment in rubles, is now regarded as having defaulted on its foreign debts.


Last Prior Thread:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Three


Related threads:















Sunday, April 3, 2022

Lamentations

From Twitter.  No other way to illustrate this.

Russian soldiers are murdered men in Bucha, Ukraine, as they left the city, or while they occupied it.

And while I cannot verify it, and therefore have not reported it to date, there have been accounts of rapes by Russian soldiers, seemingly a hallmark of the Russian Army since the latter stages of the Second World War.

To be fair, although it's frankly a bit different, Ukrainian civilians in at least one occupied city poisoned food and alcohol (that bane of Russian existence), killing some and making others sick.

This is all more than the horrors of war.

The Desolation of Jerusalem

How solitary sits the city,

once filled with people.

She who was great among the nations

is now like a widow.

Once a princess among the provinces,

now a toiling slave.

She weeps incessantly in the night,

her cheeks damp with tears.

She has no one to comfort her

from all her lovers;

Her friends have all betrayed her,

and become her enemies.

3Judah has gone into exile,

after oppression and harsh labor;

She dwells among the nations,

yet finds no rest:

All her pursuers overtake her

in the narrow straits.

The roads to Zion mourn,

empty of pilgrims to her feasts.

All her gateways are desolate,

her priests groan,

Her young women grieve;

her lot is bitter.

Her foes have come out on top,

her enemies are secure;

Because the LORD has afflicted her

for her many rebellions.

Her children have gone away,

captive before the foe.

From daughter Zion has gone

all her glory:

Her princes have become like rams

that find no pasture.

They have gone off exhausted

before their pursuers.

Jerusalem remembers

in days of wretched homelessness,

All the precious things she once had

in days gone by.

But when her people fell into the hands of the foe,

and she had no help,

Her foes looked on and laughed

at her collapse.

Jerusalem has sinned grievously,

therefore she has become a mockery;

Those who honored her now demean her,

for they saw her nakedness;

She herself groans out loud,

and turns away.

Her uncleanness is on her skirt;

she has no thought of her future.

Her downfall is astonishing,

with no one to comfort her.

“Look, O LORD, at my misery;

how the enemy triumphs!"

The foe stretched out his hands

to all her precious things;

She has seen the nations

enter her sanctuary,

Those you forbade to come

into your assembly.

All her people groan,

searching for bread;

They give their precious things for food,

to retain the breath of life.

“Look, O LORD, and pay attention

to how I have been demeaned!

Come, all who pass by the way,

pay attention and see:

Is there any pain like my pain,

which has been ruthlessly inflicted upon me,

With which the LORD has tormented me

on the day of his blazing wrath?

From on high he hurled fire down

into my very bones;

He spread out a net for my feet,

and turned me back.

He has left me desolate,

in misery all day long.

The yoke of my rebellions is bound together,

fastened by his hand.

His yoke is upon my neck;

he has made my strength fail.

The Lord has delivered me into the grip

of those I cannot resist.

All my valiant warriors

my Lord has cast away;

He proclaimed a feast against me

to crush my young men;

My Lord has trodden in the wine press

virgin daughter Judah.

For these things I weep—My eyes! My eyes!

They stream with tears!

How far from me is anyone to comfort,

anyone to restore my life.

My children are desolate;

the enemy has prevailed.”

Zion stretches out her hands,

with no one to comfort her;

The LORD has ordered against Jacob

his foes all around;

Jerusalem has become in their midst

a thing unclean.

“The LORD is in the right;

I had defied his command.

Listen, all you peoples,

and see my pain:

My young women and young men

have gone into captivity.

I cried out to my lovers,

but they failed me.

My priests and my elders

perished in the city;

How desperately they searched for food,

to save their lives!

Look, O LORD, at the anguish I suffer!

My stomach churns,

And my heart recoils within me:

How bitter I am!

Outside the sword bereaves—

indoors, there is death.

Hear how I am groaning;

there is no one to comfort me.

All my enemies hear of my misery and rejoice

over what you have done.

Bring on the day you proclaimed,

and let them become like me!

Let all their evil come before you

and deal with them

As you have so ruthlessly dealt with me

for all my rebellions.

My groans are many,

my heart is sick.”

The Lord’s Wrath and Zion’s Ruin

How the Lord in his wrath

has abhorred daughter Zion,

Casting down from heaven to earth

the glory of Israel,

Not remembering his footstool

on the day of his wrath!

The Lord has devoured without pity

all of Jacob’s dwellings;

In his fury he has razed

daughter Judah’s defenses,

Has brought to the ground in dishonor

a kingdom and its princes.

In blazing wrath, he cut down entirely

the horn of Israel;

He withdrew the support of his right hand

when the enemy approached;

He burned against Jacob like a blazing fire

that consumes everything in its path.

He bent his bow like an enemy;

the arrow in his right hand

Like a foe, he killed

all those held precious;

On the tent of daughter Zion

he poured out his wrath like fire.

The Lord has become the enemy,

he has devoured Israel:

Devoured all its strongholds,

destroyed its defenses,

Multiplied moaning and groaning

throughout daughter Judah.

He laid waste his booth like a garden,

destroyed his shrine;

The LORD has blotted out in Zion

feast day and sabbath,

Has scorned in fierce wrath

king and priest.

The Lord has rejected his altar,

spurned his sanctuary;

He has handed over to the enemy

the walls of its strongholds.

They shout in the house of the LORD

as on a feast day.

The LORD was bent on destroying

the wall of daughter Zion:

He stretched out the measuring line;

did not hesitate to devour,

Brought grief on rampart and wall

till both succumbed.

Her gates sank into the ground;

he smashed her bars to bits.

Her king and her princes are among the nations;

instruction is wanting,

Even her prophets do not obtain

any vision from the LORD.

The elders of daughter Zion

sit silently on the ground;

They cast dust on their heads

and dress in sackcloth;

The young women of Jerusalem

bow their heads to the ground.

My eyes are spent with tears,

my stomach churns;

My bile is poured out on the ground

at the brokenness of the daughter of my people,

As children and infants collapse

in the streets of the town.

They cry out to their mothers,

“Where is bread and wine?”

As they faint away like the wounded

in the streets of the city,

As their life is poured out

in their mothers’ arms.

To what can I compare you—to what can I liken you—

O daughter Jerusalem?

What example can I give in order to comfort you,

virgin daughter Zion?

For your breach is vast as the sea;

who could heal you?

Your prophets provided you visions

of whitewashed illusion;

They did not lay bare your guilt,

in order to restore your fortunes;

They saw for you only oracles

of empty deceit.

All who pass by on the road,

clap their hands at you;

They hiss and wag their heads

over daughter Jerusalem:

“Is this the city they used to call

perfect in beauty and joy of all the earth?”

They open their mouths against you,

all your enemies;

They hiss and gnash their teeth,

saying, “We have devoured her!

How we have waited for this day—

we have lived to see it!”

The LORD has done what he planned.

He has fulfilled the threat

Decreed from days of old,

destroying without pity!

He let the enemy gloat over you

and exalted the horn of your foes.

Cry out to the Lord from your heart,

wall of daughter Zion!

Let your tears flow like a torrent

day and night;

Give yourself no rest,

no relief for your eyes.

Rise up! Wail in the night,

at the start of every watch;

Pour out your heart like water

before the Lord;

Lift up your hands to him

for the lives of your children,

Who collapse from hunger

at the corner of every street.

“Look, O LORD, and pay attention:

to whom have you been so ruthless?

Must women eat their own offspring,

the very children they have borne?

Are priest and prophet to be slain

in the sanctuary of the Lord?l

They lie on the ground in the streets,

young and old alike;

Both my young women and young men

are cut down by the sword;

You killed them on the day of your wrath,

slaughtered without pity.

You summoned as to a feast day

terrors on every side;

On the day of the LORD’s wrath,

none survived or escaped.

Those I have borne and nurtured,

my enemy has utterly destroyed.”

The Voice of a Suffering Individual

I am one who has known affliction

under the rod of God’s anger,

One whom he has driven and forced to walk

in darkness, not in light;

Against me alone he turns his hand—

again and again all day long.

He has worn away my flesh and my skin,

he has broken my bones;

5He has besieged me all around

with poverty and hardship;

He has left me to dwell in dark places

like those long dead.

He has hemmed me in with no escape,

weighed me down with chains;

Even when I cry for help,

he stops my prayer;

He has hemmed in my ways with fitted stones,

and made my paths crooked.

He has been a bear lying in wait for me,

a lion in hiding!

He turned me aside and tore me apart,

leaving me ravaged.

He bent his bow, and set me up

as a target for his arrow.

He pierced my kidneys

with shafts from his quiver.

I have become a laughingstock to all my people,

their taunt all day long;

He has sated me with bitterness,

filled me with wormwood.

He has made me eat gravel,

trampled me into the dust;

My life is deprived of peace,

I have forgotten what happiness is;

My enduring hope, I said,

has perished before the LORD.

The thought of my wretched homelessness

is wormwood and poison;

Remembering it over and over,

my soul is downcast.

But this I will call to mind;

therefore I will hope:

The LORD’s acts of mercy are not exhausted,

his compassion is not spent;

They are renewed each morning—

great is your faithfulness!

The LORD is my portion, I tell myself,

therefore I will hope in him.

The LORD is good to those who trust in him,

to the one that seeks him;

It is good to hope in silence

for the LORD’s deliverance.

It is good for a person, when young,

to bear the yoke,

To sit alone and in silence,

when its weight lies heavy,

To put one’s mouth in the dust—

there may yet be hope—

To offer one’s cheek to be struck,

to be filled with disgrace.

For the Lord does not

reject forever;

Though he brings grief, he takes pity,

according to the abundance of his mercy;

He does not willingly afflict

or bring grief to human beings.

That someone tramples underfoot

all the prisoners in the land,

Or denies justice to anyone

in the very sight of the Most High,

Or subverts a person’s lawsuit—

does the Lord not see?

Who speaks so that it comes to pass,

unless the Lord commands it?

Is it not at the word of the Most High

that both good and bad take place?

What should the living complain about?

about their sins!

Let us search and examine our ways,

and return to the LORD!

Let us lift up our hearts as well as our hands

toward God in heaven!

We have rebelled and been obstinate;

you have not forgiven us.

You wrapped yourself in wrath and pursued us,

killing without pity;

You wrapped yourself in a cloud,

which no prayer could pierce.

You have made us filth and rubbish

among the peoples.

They have opened their mouths against us,

all our enemies;

Panic and the pit have been our lot,

desolation and destruction;

My eyes stream with tears over the destruction

of the daughter of my people.

My eyes will flow without ceasing,

without rest,

Until the LORD from heaven

looks down and sees.

I am tormented by the sight

of all the daughters of my city.

Without cause, my enemies snared me

as though I were a bird;

They tried to end my life in the pit,

pelting me with stones.

The waters flowed over my head:

and I said, “I am lost!”

I have called upon your name, O LORD,y

from the bottom of the pit;

You heard me call, “Do not let your ear be deaf

to my cry for help.”

You drew near on the day I called you;

you said, “Do not fear!”

5ou pleaded my case, Lord,

you redeemed my life.

You see, LORD, how I am wronged;

do me justice!

You see all their vindictiveness,

all their plots against me.

You hear their reproach, LORD,

all their plots against me,

The whispered murmurings of my adversaries,

against me all day long;

Look! Whether they sit or stand,

I am the butt of their taunt.

64Give them what they deserve, LORD,

according to their deeds;

Give them hardness of heart;

your curse be upon them;

Pursue them in wrath and destroy them

from under the LORD’s heaven!

Miseries of the Besieged City

How the gold has lost its luster,

the noble metal changed;

Jewels lie scattered

at the corner of every street.

And Zion’s precious children,

worth their weight in gold—

How they are treated like clay jugs,

the work of any potter!

Even jackals offer their breasts

to nurse their young;

But the daughter of my people is as cruel

as the ostrich* in the wilderness.

The tongue of the infant cleaves

to the roof of its mouth in thirst;

Children beg for bread,

but no one gives them a piece.

Those who feasted on delicacies

are abandoned in the streets;

Those who reclined on crimson

now embrace dung heaps.

The punishment of the daughter of my people

surpassed the penalty of Sodom,

Which was overthrown in an instant

with no hand laid on it.

Her princes were brighter than snow,

whiter than milk,

Their bodies more ruddy than coral,

their beauty like the sapphire.

8Now their appearance is blacker than soot,

they go unrecognized in the streets;

Their skin has shrunk on their bones,

and become dry as wood.

Better for those pierced by the sword

than for those pierced by hunger,

Better for those who bleed from wounds

than for those who lack food.

The hands of compassionate women

have boiled their own children!

They became their food

when the daughter of my people was shattered.

The LORD has exhausted his anger,

poured out his blazing wrath;

He has kindled a fire in Zion

that has consumed her foundations.

The kings of the earth did not believe,

nor any of the world’s inhabitants,

That foe or enemy could enter

the gates of Jerusalem.

13Except for the sins of her prophets

and the crimes of her priests,

Who poured out in her midst

the blood of the just.

They staggered blindly in the streets,

defiled with blood,

So that people could not touch

even their garments:

“Go away! Unclean!” they cried to them,

“Away, away, do not touch!”

If they went away and wandered,

it would be said among the nations,

“They can no longer live here!

The presence of the LORD was their portion,

but he no longer looks upon them.

The priests are shown no regard,

the elders, no mercy.

Even now our eyes are worn out,

searching in vain for help;

From our watchtower we have watched

for a nation* unable to save.

They dogged our every step,

we could not walk in our squares;

Our end drew near, our time was up;

yes, our end had come.

Our pursuers were swifter

than eagles in the sky,

In the mountains they were hot on our trail,

they ambushed us in the wilderness.

The LORD’s anointed—our very lifebreath!—

was caught in their snares,

He in whose shade we thought

to live among the nations. 

Rejoice and gloat, daughter Edom,

dwelling in the land of Uz

The cup will pass to you as well;

you shall become drunk and strip yourself naked!l

Your punishment is completed, daughter Zion,

the Lord will not prolong your exile;

The Lord will punish your iniquity, daughter Edom,

will lay bare your sins

The Community’s Lament to the Lord

Remember, LORD, what has happened to us,

pay attention, and see our disgrace:

2Our heritage is turned over to strangers,

our homes, to foreigners.

We have become orphans, without fathers;

our mothers are like widows.

We pay money to drink our own water,

our own wood comes at a price.

With a yoke on our necks, we are driven;

we are worn out, but allowed no rest.

We extended a hand to Egypt and Assyria,

to satisfy our need of bread.

Our ancestors, who sinned, are no more;

but now we bear their guilt.

Servants rule over us,

with no one to tear us from their hands.

We risk our lives just to get bread,

exposed to the desert heat;

Our skin heats up like an oven,

from the searing blasts of famine.

Women are raped in Zion,

young women in the cities of Judah;

Princes have been hanged by them,

elders shown no respect.

Young men carry millstones,

boys stagger under loads of wood;

The elders have abandoned the gate

the young men their music.

The joy of our hearts has ceased,

dancing has turned into mourning;

The crown has fallen from our head:

woe to us that we sinned!

Because of this our hearts grow sick,

at this our eyes grow dim:

Because of Mount Zion, lying desolate,

and the jackals roaming there!

But you, LORD, are enthroned forever;

your throne stands from age to age.

Why have you utterly forgotten us,

forsaken us for so long?

Bring us back to you, LORD, that we may return:

renew our days as of old.

For now you have indeed rejected us

and utterly turned your wrath against us.

 From the Book of Lamentations.*

Victor Davis Hanson, whose editorials became increasingly sketchy, in my view, in the Trump/Post Trump era, returned to a sense of stable on the other day and wrote an editorial on how to pursue helping the Ukrainians to victory.  One of the things he reminded us of is that we should not hate the Russians, and this is quite true.  It was not the Russian people who launched this war against their neighbor, it was Ukraine.

A less charitable op ed in the Tribune reminds us, however, of the Holodomor, in which the Soviets intentionally starved millions of Ukrainians in the early 1930s.

That was the Soviets of course, not really the Russians per se, but Putin is well on his way to trying to restore some sort of Imperial confederation based on central, if not communist, authority.  People don't forget things like that, and it becomes at some point hard to get over them.

Additionally, a feature of the Russian Army is that its conscripts are made up of a class who simply can't avoid service, and they're not the bright shining lights of Russian society.  Added to that, for inexplicable reasons, physical violence towards recruits has been a feature of Russian military life since the Imperial days.  Brutality towards junior enlisted men ends up producing solders who are brutal to civilians.

A good example of that would be the Imperial Japanese Army.  At the time of the Russo Japanese War it was noted that the Japanese were not brutal to prisoners of war and were willing to surrender if surrender was called for. All that had changed by the Second World War.  I don't know what changed inside the Japanese military itself, but the government had changed enormously to where effectively the military had a veto on the civilian administration of government by that time. And the Japanese were notoriously brutal towards their enlisted men and taught them barbarity.

The situation with the Russians today isn't really analogous, but it's becoming difficult not to recall that the Red Army was used to perpetuate a heinous crime against the Ukrainians in the 1930s and whatever else a person may say about it in World War Two, it's guilty of the the largest mass rape event in modern human history.

Now it's repeating that history.

It's well-known as well that upon their return home, what the troops of the Red Army had done outside of their own borders had become known at home.  It ended up causing the generation that fought the war to have a long-lasting set of problems at home.  Russian women, who are a powerful cultural force inside of Russia, regarded their husbands as having cheated on them or worse, and didn't forgive them.  Many Russian men didn't forgive themselves as time passed.

We note this as, once again, there's nothing in Russian culture that is responsible for this war. The best evidence is that Russians who know what is going on don't want it, although some are now rallying to their flag, as people in wartime do.

What it does tells us, however, that we need to do more for Ukraine.  Doing more for Ukraine, long term, is doing more for Russia, and the world itself, as well.

In the meantime, pray for Ukraine.

Footnotes:

*Lamentations 1

1   ¶ Як самітно сидить колись велелюдне це місто, немов удова воно стало! Могутнє посеред народів, княгиня посеред країн воно стало данницею!...

2   Гірко плаче по ночах вона, і сльози гарячі на щоках у неї... Нема потішителя в неї зо всіх, що кохали її, її зрадили всі її друзі, вони ворогами їй стали!

3   Юдея пішла на вигнання з біди та з роботи тяжкої, вона оселилася поміж поганами, спочинку собі не знайшла! Догнали її всі її переслідники серед тіснот...

4   Дороги сіонської доньки сумні, бо немає на свято прочан! Усі брами її попустіли, зідхає священство її, посумнілі дівчата її, а вона гірко їй!

5   Її грабівники взяли гору над нею, і добре ведеться її ворогам, бо їй завдав смутку Господь за численність у неї гріхів: Немовлята її до полону пішли перед ворогом...

6   І відійшла від сіонської доньки вся величність її... Її князі стали, немов олені ті, що паші собі не знаходять, і йдуть у безсиллі перед переслідником...

7   У дні лиха свого та страждання свого дочка єрусалимська спогадує всі свої скарби, що були від днів давніх, як народ її впав був у руку ворожу, і не було, хто б їй поміч подав... Вороги споглядали на неї, і сміялись з руїни її...

8   Дочка єрусалимська гріхом прогрішилась, тому то нечистою стала, усі, що її шанували, погорджують нею, наготу бо її вони бачили! І зідхає вона, й відвертається взад...

9   Нечистість її на подолках у неї. Вона не згадала свого кінця, та й упала предивно, і нікого нема, хто б потішив її... Побач, Господи, горе моє, бо звеличився ворог!

10  Гнобитель простяг свою руку на всі її скарби, і бачить вона, що в святиню її увіходять погани, про яких наказав Ти: Не ввійдуть вони в твої збори!

11  Увесь народ її стогне, шукаючи хліба, свої скарби коштовні за їжу дають, аби тільки душу свою проживити... Зглянься, Господи, і подивися, яка стала погорджена я!

12  ¶ Не вам кажучи, гляньте й побачте, усі, хто дорогою йде: чи є такий біль, як мій біль, що завданий мені, що Господь засмутив ним мене у день лютого гніву Свого?...

13  Із височини Він послав в мої кості огонь, і над ними він запанував! Розтяг сітку на ноги мої, повернув мене взад, учинив Він мене спустошілою, увесь день болящою...

14  Ярмо моїх прогріхів зв'язане міцно рукою Його, плетуться вони та приходять на шию мою! Він зробив, що спіткнулася сила моя, Господь передав мене в руки такого, що й звестись не можу...

15  Усіх моїх сильних Господь поскидав серед мене, мов на свято зібрання, Він скликав на мене, щоб моїх юнаків поторощити, як у чавилі, стоптав Господь дівчину, Юдину доньку...

16  За оцим плачу я, око моє, моє око слізьми запливає! бо далеко від мене втішитель, що душу мою оживив би; мої діти понехтувані, бо посилився ворог!

17  Сіонська дочка простягла свої руки, немає розрадника їй: Господь наказав проти Якова довкола нього його ворогам, донька єрусалимська нечистою стала між ними...

18  Справедливий Господь, а я слову Його неслухняна була... Послухайте но, всі народи, і побачте мій біль: дівчата мої та мої юнаки у неволю пішли!

19  Взивала до друзів своїх, та вони обманули мене! Священство моє й мої старші вмирають у місті, шукаючи їжі собі, щоб душу свою поживити...

20  Зглянься, Господи, тісно мені! Моє нутро бентежиться, перевертається серце моє у мені, бо була зовсім неслухняна... На вулиці меч осирочував, а в домі смерть...

21  Почули, що я ось стогну, й немає мені потішителя, вчули про лихо моє всі мої вороги, та й зраділи, що Ти це зробив... Спровадив Ти день, що його заповів, бодай сталося їм, як мені!

22  Бодай перед обличчя Твоє прийшло все їхнє лихо, і вчини їм, як Ти учинив ось мені за гріхи мої всі, бо численні стогнання мої, моє ж серце боляще...

Lamentations 2

1   ¶ Як захмарив Господь в Своїм гніві сіонську дочку! Він кинув із неба на землю пишноту Ізраїля, і не згадав у день гніву Свого про підніжка ногам Своїм,

2   понищив Господь, не помилував житла всі Яковові... Він позбурював у гніві Своїм у дочки Юди твердині, на землю звалив, збезчестив Він царство й князів усіх його...

3   В люті гніву відтяв увесь Ізраїлів ріг, правицю Свою відвернув Він від ворога, та й запалав проти Якова, мов той палючий огонь, що навколо жере!

4   Він нап'яв Свого лука, як ворог, противником стала правиця Його, і Він вибив усе, що для ока було пожадане, у скинії доньки сіонської вилив запеклість Свою, як огонь...

5   Господь став, як той ворог, понищив Ізраїля Він, всі палати його зруйнував, твердині його попустошив, і Юдиній доньці примножив зідхання та стогін!

6   Понищив горожу Свою, немов у садка, місце зборів Своїх попустошив, Господь учинив, що забули в Сіоні про свято й суботу, і відкинув царя та священика в лютості гніву Свого...

7   Покинув Господь Свого жертівника, допустив побезчестити святиню Свою, передав в руку ворога мури палаців її, вороги зашуміли в Господньому домі, немов би святкового дня!

8   Задумав Господь зруйнувати мур сіонської доньки, Він витягнув шнура, Своєї руки не вернув, щоб не нищити, сумними вчинив передмур'я та мур, вони разом ослабли...

9   Її брами запалися в землю, понищив Він та поламав її засуви... Її цар і князі її серед поганів... Немає навчання Закону, і пророки її не знаходять видіння від Господа...

10  ¶ Сидять на землі та мовчать старші доньки сіонської, порох посипали на свою голову, підперезались веретами, аж до землі свою голову єрусалимські дівчата схилили...

11  Повипливали від сліз мої очі, моє нутро клекоче, на землю печінка моя виливається через занепад дочки мого люду, коли немовля й сосунець умлівають голодні на площах міських.

12  Вони квилять своїм матерям: Де пожива й вино? І скулюються, як ранений, на площах міських, коли душі свої випускають на лоні своїх матерів...

13  Що засвідчу тобі, що вподоблю до тебе, о єрусалимськая дочко? Що вчиню тобі рівним, щоб тебе звеселити, о діво, о дочко сіонська? Бо велика, як море, руїна твоя, хто тебе полікує?

14  Пророки твої провіщали для тебе марноту й фальшиве, і не відкривали твого гріха, щоб долю твою відвернути, для тебе вбачали пророцтва марноти й вигнання...

15  Усі, що проходять дорогою, плещуть у долоні на тебе, і посвистують та головою своєю хитають над донькою Єрусалиму та кажуть: Хіба це те місто, що про нього казали: Корона пишноти, розрада всієї землі?

16  Усі вороги твої пащу на тебе роззявлюють, свищуть й зубами скрегочуть та кажуть: Ми пожерли її... Оце справді той день, що чекали його, знайшли ми і бачимо його!...

17  Учинив Господь те, що задумав, Він виповнив слово Своє, що його наказав від днів давніх: усе зруйнував, і милосердя не мав, і ворога втішив тобою, Він рога підійняв супротивних твоїх...

18  Їхнє серце до Господа крик підіймає, о муре, о дочко Сіону! Проливай, як потік, сльози вдень та вночі, не давай відпочинку собі, нехай не спочине зіниця твоя!

19  Уставай, голоси уночі на початку сторожі! Виливай своє серце, мов воду, навпроти обличчя Господнього! Підійми ти до Нього долоні свої за душу своїх немовлят, що від голоду мліють на розі всіх вулиць!...

20  Споглянь, Господи, і подивися, кому Ти зробив отаке? Чи конечним було, щоб жінки їли плід свій, своїх немовлят, яких виплекали? Щоб був у святині Господній забитий священик і пророк?

21  Лежать на землі на вулицях рядом юнак та старий... Попадали діви мої та мої парубки від меча, Ти побив їх в день гніву Свого, порізав, не мав милосердя...

22  Ти викликував, мов на день свята, жахоти мої із довкілля, і врятованого не було, і позостальця в день гніву Господнього, повигублював ворог мій тих, кого виплекала та зростила була...

Lamentations 3

1   ¶ Я той муж, який бачив біду від жезла Його гніву,

2   Він провадив мене й допровадив до темряви, а не до світла...

3   Лиш на мене все знову обертає руку Свою цілий день...

4   Він виснажив тіло моє й мою шкіру, мої кості сторощив,

5   обгородив Він мене, і мене оточив гіркотою та мукою,

6   у темноті мене посадив, мов померлих давно...

7   Обгородив Він мене і не вийду, тяжкими вчинив Він кайдани мої...

8   І коли я кричу й голошу, затикає Він вуха Свої на молитву мою...

9   Камінням обтесаним обгородив Він дороги мої, повикривлював стежки мої...

10  Він для мене ведмедем чатуючим став, немов лев той у сховищі!

11  Поплутав дороги мої та розшарпав мене, учинив Він мене опустошеним!

12  Натягнув Свого лука й поставив мене, наче ціль для стріли,

13  пустив стріли до нирок моїх з Свого сагайдака...

14  Для всього народу свого я став посміховиськом, глумливою піснею їхньою цілий день...

15  Наситив мене гіркотою, мене напоїв полином...

16  І стер мені зуби жорствою, до попелу кинув мене,

17  і душа моя спокій згубила, забув я добро...

18  І сказав я: Загублена сила моя, та моє сподівання на Господа...

19  Згадай про біду мою й муку мою, про полин та отруту,

20  душа моя згадує безперестанку про це, і гнеться в мені...

21  ¶ Оце я нагадую серцеві своєму, тому то я маю надію:

22  Це милість Господня, що ми не погинули, бо не покінчилось Його милосердя,

23  нове воно кожного ранку, велика бо вірність Твоя!

24  Господь це мій уділ, говорить душа моя, тому я надію на Нього складаю!

25  Господь добрий для тих, хто надію на Нього кладе, для душі, що шукає Його!

26  Добре, коли людина в мовчанні надію кладе на спасіння Господнє.

27  Добре для мужа, як носить ярмо в своїй молодості,

28  нехай він самітно сидить і мовчить, як поклав Він на нього його;

29  хай закриє він порохом уста свої, може є ще надія;

30  хай щоку тому підставляє, хто його б'є, своєю ганьбою насичується...

31  Бо Господь не навіки ж покине!

32  Бо хоч Він і засмутить кого, проте змилується за Своєю великою милістю,

33  бо не мучить Він з серця Свого, і не засмучує людських синів.

34  Щоб топтати під своїми ногами всіх в'язнів землі,

35  щоб перед обличчям Всевишнього право людини зігнути,

36  щоб гнобити людину у справі судовій його, оцього не має на оці Господь!

37  ¶ Хто то скаже і станеться це, як Господь того не наказав?

38  Хіба не виходить усе з уст Всевишнього, зле та добре?

39  Чого ж нарікає людина жива? Нехай скаржиться кожен на гріх свій.

40  Пошукаймо доріг своїх та дослідімо, і вернімось до Господа!

41  підіймімо своє серце та руки до Бога на небі!

42  ¶ Спроневірились ми й неслухняними стали, тому не пробачив Ти нам,

43  закрився Ти гнівом і гнав нас, убивав, не помилував,

44  закрив Себе хмарою, щоб до Тебе молитва моя не дійшла...

45  Сміттям та огидою нас Ти вчинив між народами,

46  наші всі вороги пороззявляли на нас свого рота,

47  страх та яма на нас поприходили, руїна й погибіль...

48  Моє око спливає потоками водними через нещастя дочки мого люду...

49  Виливається око моє безупинно, нема бо перерви,

50  аж поки не зглянеться та не побачить Господь із небес,

51  моє око вчиняє журбу для моєї душі через дочок усіх мого міста...

52  Ловлячи, ловлять мене, немов птаха, мої вороги безпричинно,

53  життя моє в яму замкнули вони, і каміннями кинули в мене...

54  Пливуть мені води на голову, я говорю: Вже погублений я!...

55  ¶ Кликав я, Господи, Ймення Твоє із найглибшої ями,

56  Ти чуєш мій голос, не заховуй же вуха Свого від зойку мого, від благання мого!

57  Ти близький того дня, коли кличу Тебе, Ти говориш: Не бійся!

58  За душу мою Ти змагався, о Господи, життя моє викупив Ти.

59  Ти бачиш, о Господи, кривду мою, розсуди ж Ти мій суд!

60  Усю їхню помсту Ти бачиш, всі задуми їхні на мене,

61  Ти чуєш, о Господи, їхні наруги, всі задуми їхні на мене,

62  мову повстанців на мене та їхнє буркотіння на мене ввесь день...

63  Побач їхнє сидіння та їхнє вставання, як завжди глумлива їхня пісня!

64  Заплати їм, о Господи, згідно з чином їхніх рук!

65  Подай їм темноту на серце, прокляття Твоє нехай буде на них!

66  Своїм гнівом жени їх, і вигуби їх з-під Господніх небес!

Lamentations 4

1   ¶ Як потемніло золото, як відмінилося щире те золото добре, як на розі всіх вулиць каміння святе порозкидане!

2   Коштовні сіонські сини, щирим золотом важені, як тепер ось за глиняний посуд полічені, за чин рук ганчарських!

3   Навіть шакали витягують перса, годують своїх молодят, а доня народу мого жорстока, мов струсі в пустині:

4   язик сосунця до його піднебіння від спраги прилип... Хліба жадають собі немовлята, й немає нікого, хто б їм відломив...

5   Ті, що їли присмаки, на вулицях з голоду мліють; ті, що виплекані на пурпурі, тепер смітники обіймають...

6   І більшою стала вина доньки люду мого за прогріх Содому, що був перевернений вмить, і не торкалися руки до нього...

7   Її можновладці чистіші від снігу були, біліші від молока, їхнє тіло червоне, мов перли, їхній вигляд сапфір,

8   а тепер їхній вигляд чорніший за сажу, не розпізнають їх на вулицях, їхня шкіра стягнулась на їхній кості, зробилась сухою, як дерево...

9   Забитим мечем стало ліпше, ніж повбиваним голодом, що гинуть проколені, за браком плодів польових...

10  Руки жінок милосердних варили своїх діточок, які стали поживою їм під час руйнування дочки мого люду...

11  Закінчив Господь лютість Свою, вилив жар Свого гніву, і запалив на Сіоні огонь, і пожер він основи його!

12  Не вірили земні царі та всі мешканці цілого світу, що ввійде противник та ворог до брам Єрусалиму...

13  ¶ Усе сталося це за провини пророків його, за неправду священства його, що кров праведників серед нього лили...

14  По вулицях бродять, немов ті сліпці, поплямовані кров'ю, так що люди не можуть діткнутись до одягу їхнього.

15  Уступіться, нечисті! кричали до них, уступіться, збочуйте, не доторкуйтеся!... І повтікали вони й мандрували, і казали між людьми: Мешкати в нас більш не будуть!

16  Господнє лице розпорошило їх, не дивиться більше на них, бо вони не звертали уваги на обличчя священиків, до старих вони ласки не мали...

17  Уже прогляділи ми очі свої, даремно чекавши на поміч собі, на варті своїй ми чекали народу, який нас не спас...

18  Чатують вони наші кроки, щоб ходити не могли ми по площах своїх. Кінець наш наблизився, сповнилися наші дні, бо прийшов нам кінець...

19  Гнобителі наші скоріші були за орлів піднебесних, вони уганялись за нами по горах, на нас чатували в пустині...

20  Попав в ями живущий наш дух, Господній помазанець, що ми говорили про нього: Ми будемо жити в тіні його серед народів.

21  ¶ Веселися та тішся, о дочко Едому, що сидиш в краю Уц, також над тобою перейде злий келіх, уп'єшся й оголишся й ти!

22  Скінчилася кара твоя, дочко Сіону, не буде Він більше тебе виганяти, та твоє беззаконня скарає Він, дочко Едому, відкриє провини твої!

Lamentations 5

1   ¶ Згадай, Господи, що з нами сталося, зглянься й побач нашу ганьбу,

2   наша спадщина дісталась чужим, доми наші чужинцям!

3   Поставали ми сиротами: нема батька, а матінки наші неначе ті вдови!...

4   Свою воду за срібло ми п'ємо, наші дрова за гроші одержуємо...

5   У потилицю нас поганяють, помучені ми, і спокою не маємо!

6   До Єгипту й Асирії руку витягуємо, щоб насититись хлібом!

7   Батьки наші грішили, але їх нема, а ми двигаємо їхні провини!

8   Раби запанували над нами, і немає нікого, хто б вирятував з їхньої руки...

9   Наражуючи свою душу на меч у пустині, достаємо свій хліб...

10  Шкіра наша, мов піч, попалилась з пекучого голоду...

11  Жінок на Сіоні безчестили, дівчат по Юдейських містах...

12  Князі їхньою рукою повішені, лиця старих не пошановані...

13  Юнаки носять камінь млиновий, а хлопці під ношею дров спотикаються...

14  Перестали сидіти старші в брамі, юнаки свою пісню співати,

15  втіха нашого серця спинилась, наш танець змінивсь на жалобу...

16  Спала корона у нас з голови, о горе, бо ми прогрішились,

17  ¶ тому наше серце боляще, тому наші очі потемніли,

18  через гору Сіон, що спустошена, бродять лисиці по ній...

19  Пробуваєш Ти, Господи, вічно, Твій престол з роду в рід:

20  Нащо ж нас забуваєш навік, покидаєш на довгі дні нас?

21  Приверни нас до Себе, о Господи, і вернемось ми, віднови наші дні, як давніше було!

22  Хіба Ти цілком нас відкинув, прогнівавсь занадто на нас?...