January 16, 2024
In a surprise to no one, Trump won the Iowa Caucuses. The Republican, and perhaps the nation's, march to disaster commences. The GOP is set, absent some of the predictions set out below, to either elect a vengeful septuagenarian juvenile who will take them into defeat yet again, or who will become an unprecedented in character President who will hold that office with a minority of Americans having actually voted for him.
Either way, it's the death of the GOP. Backing a repeat loser isn't a path to long term success. The overall question is when a replacement for the GOP emerges, and whether the Democrats reform themselves in the meantime. If there's any silver lining to a Trump victory, and that's a big if, both of those things would be it.
A repeat from yesterday:
June 15, 2024
Martin Luther King Day
Wyoming Equality Day
Iowa Caucus Day
On This Week, a Democratic member of Congress noted that Republican politicians who had opposed Trump were now rushing to endorse him, least they meet the ire of the MAGA crowed.
Probably two of the recent Wyoming endorsements fit that category.
Tonight at 7:00 p.m. the Iowa Caucus's will open in frigid weather, apparently not taking note that this is at least technically a day off for a lot of people (it isn't for most people). Gathering at 7:00 p.m. in order to choose a candidate for your party will be weighed, by many, against the agony of going out in the cold.
That's the only hope for those running against Trump.
It cannot help but be noted that the Iowa Caucus, while it probably made sense at one time, emphasizes the antiquated and downright stupid way the US picks its President. States position themselves to be first to pick, which none of them have the right to be. At least caucuses are party elections, not funded (I think) by the state. Most states have primaries which are party elections on the state's dime, which isn't just, and is arguably, in my view, unconstitutional.
To add to things, this year, Trump's ability to even hold office is presently in front of the United States Supreme Court.
Given all of this, I'm going to close this issue out with a few predictions, giving percentages.
I think Trump will take Iowa, and I'd give that a 100% chance. Biden will of course take Iowa.
I'm giving Haley a 60% chance of taking New Hampshire. New Hampshire doesn't like to look like Iowa's lapdog and it is a East Coast state with a history of acting independently.
Irrespective of that, if I'm wrong on the matters noted below, there's a 75% chance that Trump is the GOP nominee and a 100% chance Biden is the Democratic nominee.
Now, here's where some will think we're off the rails.
I think there's a 60% chance the United States Supreme Court will find Trump an insurrectionist unqualified to hold office.
When they do that, if they do, there will be a massive outbreak of right wing violence across the country.
If they do that, Haley will be the nominee.
I feel there's a 55% chance that Trump, who is an old man, who looks unhealthy, and who in my view is showing signs of dementia, will die before the election. He's showing signs of decline every day.
If he dies, and I think he will, Haley will be the nominee.
I feel there's a 40% chance that Biden will pass away of natural causes before the election.
If he dies, and I don't think he will, I have no idea who the nominee will be.
In a Biden v. Trump rematch, Trump will win. I don't want him to, but he will.
In a Biden v. Haley match, Haley will win. The Democrats seem incapable of accepting that they're going with an unelectable candidate.
Assuming that Biden and Trump are the nominees, at some point after Super Tuesday, there's a 55% chance that somebody announces a major third party run. I'm not sure who it will be, but Christie, Manchin and Cheney are all figures in that. My guess is that it will be Manchin for President, with Christie as VP.
Everyone always states that no third parties ever win, even the GOP itself was a third party that in fact won, displacing the dying Whigs. A third party here would displace the dying GOP. I'd give a third party as 60% chance of winning.
Given the furor he stirs up, there are a lot of things I fear this election many feature that I'm not going to post, as I don't want them to look like something I'm endorsing by mentioning them. Indeed, I'm afraid that they'll happen and desperately hope they do not.
This will close this edition. The next one will come out on the morning after, so to speak, of the Iowa Caucus.
People should pray for the nation.
DeSantis came in second, defying hope for rising Haley. Vivek Ramaswamy dropped out, and is likely to disappear from politics forever, unless Trump wins, in which case he'll resurface as some sort of early Trump cabinet choice.
The current tally:
Republican:
Donald Trump: 20 delegates
Ron DeSantis: 8 delegates
Nikki Haley: 7 delegates
Vivek Ramaswamy: 3 delegates
Democrats:
Oddly, they aren't releasing their results until super Tuesday, March 5, but it's obvious who the winner is.
Cont:
Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson has dropped out of the GOP race.
January 19, 2024
Donald Trump, the son, grandson and twice the "husband" of immigrants if you discount that Christianity (he claims to be a Presbyterian) recognizes marriage once, for the period of a person's natural life, mocked Nicki Haley, the daughter of an immigrant, by calling her "Nimbra".
Not that it will matter. Trump loyalist are so enamored with the one time Democrat that at this point there is literally nothing whatsoever he can do to dissuade their loyalty, including the fact that in a second Trump administration it will largely be others with an agenda who govern. This base is now the majority of the GOP, the party having largely ceased to exist on an historical basis.
January 20, 2024
Former Presidential GOP candidate Tim Scott, whose campaign didn't go anywhere, has endorsed Donald Trump.
This may be cynical, but frankly I think Scott is angling for the VP ticket, and I'd guess he has a good chance of getting it. He would, in fact, be a good choice for Trump.
cont:
Donald Trump pretty clearly confused Nikki Haley with Nancy Pelosi in a New Hampshire campaign rally, claiming that Haley was in charge of all the "troops", meaning that she could have called on National Guardsmen to protect the capitol.
Haley wasn't in office at the time.
Haley in turn called on his mental fitness.
More people should be. Trump doesn't act like somebody who okay mentally. He's old, and in the footage of the rally, he does not look well.
January 21, 2024
Asa Huntinchinson endorsed Nikki Haley.
Trump, in a weird sort of way, endorsed Viktor Orbán:
There's a great man in Europe. Viktor Orbán… He’s a very strong man. It’s nice to have a strongman running your country
Orbán is the poster child for the far right's endorsement of Illiberal Democracy.
Trump also rejected the rule of law in the executive in the same rally, stating:
And you will have the rogue cop, the bad apple, and perhaps you'll have that also with President But there's nothing you can do about that. You're going to have to give the President immunity. I hope The Supreme Court will has the courage to do that.
These statements from a man who will only be a "dictator for a day".
Trump, on the same day he confused Haley for Pelosi, made reference to having run against President Obama, which he never did.
Cont:
And now it's down to two. DeSantis dropped out and then endorsed Trump. His dropping out, however, probably does Haley a favor.
January 22, 2024
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum has now endorsed Trump, having dropped out of the race some time ago.
It's clear where all this is headed. Republican politicians are going to go to Trump on bended knee, irrespective of what that means.
January 23, 2024
Everything about this strategy is wrong.
First of all, the Democrats do not need to campaign as the party of infanticide, everyone knows they have blood on their hands and wish to continue odd making them wet. Those supporting infanticide have nowhere else to go, and are going to vote Democratic no matter what.
Secondly, the numerous center right voters who would normally vote Republican but who are rational about Donald Trump and what he stands for have been working their way around to vote for Biden/Harris, but being reminded of this, particularly if they are devout or at least adherent Catholics/Orthodox/Muslims will drive them away as it'll make the election about abortion and they can't go there. This section of the electorate is big enough to determine the election.
Finally, Kamala Harris is one of the most dis-likeable candidates imaginable. Joe Biden won the election in spite of her lat time, not because of her. Nobody needs to be reminded that if in the high likelihood Joe Biden dies or becomes disabled in his second term, she becomes the far left successor President.
So, it was at this point, the Democrats lost the 2024 election. The question is, who will win it?
Doug Burgum, who ran a disappointing race against Trump for the GOP nomination, will not run for another term as the Governor of North Dakota.
While it's mere speculation, a lot of Republicans are lining up to kiss Trump's ring (or other things) in hopes of becoming his VP. Of those doing that, Burgum is actually a good choice.
On other matters, Elise Stefanik, attempting to explain away Trump's obvious mental lapse the other day, managed to issue one of the most confusing attempts at the same ever. Stefanik has prostituted her talents to Trump and obviously will plumb any depths in her effort to sell herself into a position in his anticipated administration.
Oh Rich, but for Wales.
One of the things that Trump has been promising is to drill, which his audience likes to hear. Funny thing is:
January 23, 2024
U.S. oil production has been holding at or near record highs since October, topping the previous peak from 2020, even though the number of active domestic oil drilling rigs is down by nearly 30% from four years ago.New technology is the reason why there is higher production with fewer rigs.
And also:
The U.S. set a new annual oil production record on December 15, based on data from the Energy Information Administration. Although the official monthly numbers from the EIA won’t be released for a couple of months, we can calculate that a new record has been set based on the following analysis.Prices at the pump have been declining.
Huh.
The irony of this is that Biden can't advance this matter for two reasons. One is that while he hasn't restricted domestic production, as some in the GOP like to imagine, he also hasn't promoted production either. This is happening on its own and is technology driven. It shows how the economy, absent radical moves in it, is impacted much less by a President's policies than by outside economic forces.
January 24, 2024
Trump took the New Hampshire primary, Biden, who wasn't actually running in it, took the Democratic one.
Trump used the opportunity to threaten Haley.
Just a little note to Nikki, she is not going to win, but if she did she would be under investigation by those people in 15 minutes. I could tell you five reasons why already, not big reasons, little stuff that she doesn’t want to talk about, but she will be under investigation in minutes and so would Ron have been, but he decided to get out.
January 25, 2024
Biden received the endorsement of the United Auto Workers.
Trump has declared that donors to the Haley campaign will be barred from Camp MAGA. In the same tweet he called Haley a "bird brain"
Trump doesn't appear to be well, in my amateur diagnosis. A nation that can vote for somebody saying these things isn't well, either.
January 26, 2024
I think the border is a very important issue for Donald Trump. And the fact that he would communicate to Republican senators and congresspeople that he doesn’t want us to solve the border problem because he wants to blame Biden for it is … really appalling.
But the reality is that, that we have a crisis at the border, the American people are suffering as a result of what’s happening at the border. And someone running for president not to try and get the problem solved. as opposed to saying, ‘hey, save that problem. Don’t solve it. Let me take credit for solving it later.’
Mitt Romney
January 27, 2022
John Barrasso's second wife, Bobbi, died of brain cancer this past week. She was a very nice person and had been a judicial law clerk after graduating from law school. I knew her somewhat from law school and her service as a clerk.
The Governor noted her passing:
Governor Gordon Statement on the Passing of Bobbi Barrasso
CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has issued the following statement on the passing of Bobbi Barrasso, wife of Wyoming Senator John Barrasso. Bobbi passed away in Casper after a two-year battle with Glioblastoma brain cancer.
Bobbi was a treasure, a Wyoming native who always put her family and the people of the state first. Jennie and I send our prayers and deepest condolences to John and their family.
Bobbi was a longtime friend, a stalwart supporter of Wyoming and a resolute warrior against cancer. She always put service ahead of self. As a compassionate soul, she advocated tirelessly for Wyoming children, education, mental health and suicide prevention. She made a difference, and has left an indelible legacy. The Lord doesn’t make many as good as Bobbi. Wyoming was blessed to have known her. She will be missed.
The Governor will issue a flag notification once services have been announced.
A former coal executive who claims to be "Trumpier than Trump" has announced for Joe Machin's seat in West Virginia.
January 31, 2024
In Illinois, a hearing officer in an administrative process on Trump's eligibility to be on the ballot found Trump had engaged in an insurrection, but recommended the election board demur to the courts. The board in turn found that it lacked the power to remove Trump.
cont:
Elected Park County Precinct Committee members who were booted from their positions by the county Party for failure to attend meetings, including former Senator Alan Simpson, have been reinstated, although it may be temporary. Other's booted include former Wyoming House speaker and party chairman Colin Simpson, Powell Mayor John Wetzel, Park County Commissioner Scott Steward and Northwest College Trustee Dusty Spomer. At least Alan Simpson claims that they were booted for failing to meet the party's current ideological expectations.
A petition has been filed with the state party to keep them booted.
February 1, 2024
In the play stupid games category, the Oregon Supreme Court ruled that ten Republican state senators who refused to attend the state Senate for six weeks in an attempt to stall Democratic-backed bills cannot run for reelection.
February 4, 2024
Joe Biden won the Democratic South Carolina primary. Oddly, the Republican one is on a different day.
February 5, 2024
Listening to the weekend shows this weekend brings on a sense of despair.
Trump now leads Biden by 5 points in the polls. Granted, November is nine. . . only nine, months away.
J.D. Vance came on television and outright advocated for Trump to ignore the rulings of the Supreme Court if they're against him. Increasingly, the hope that Trump will not be the next President has been placed on the U.S. Supreme Court enforcing the 14th Amendment. While Vance didn't say that Republican Secretaries of State should ignore such a ruling, it's impossible now not to regard that as highly likely, meaning that we're headed for a grave constitutional crisis in which it is potentially the case that the Supreme Court declares him ineligible, states place him on the ballot anyhow, and he wins the electoral vote, but cannot be seated.
In that instance, the next four years will be rough, and frankly, there will be violence regarding this.
A decent candidate, in these circumstances, would suspend his race. Trump is not decent.
Kristi Noem has been banned from the Pine Ridge Resevation.
February 6, 2024
Intersting article on what local GOP figures are going to do re Trump, if their prior positions on Trump or Cheney are known.
Some Cheney 'Never Trumpers' Now Support Trump; Others Won't Budge
Quite a few are falling in line with Trump, not surprisingly. Some are not, however, notably Cale Case and Alan Simpson.
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