Sunday Morning Scene: The Church and the Pandemic

Diocese of Cheyenne:

From: Bishop Steven Biegler

Date: March 13, 2020 Re: Obligation to attend Sunday MassAs the Coronavirus continues to spread throughout the United States, the Diocese of Cheyenne is committed to taking all reasonable precautions to prevent transmission of the virus. In addition to the directives issued on March 3, 2020 (summarized below), from March 13 to April 8, 2020, a dispensation from the obligation to attend Holy Mass (canon 1245) is granted to:

• those of any age who are ill, and • those with an underlying health condition, such as chronic lung disease, COPD, asthma, etc. • Moreover, any person over 60 years old may choose to use this dispensation.Stay home if you are sick or in a high-risk category, since this virus is primarily transmitted through contact with respiratory droplets when an infected person coughs or sneezes. Sunday Mass is broadcast on K2 (ABC) at 9 AM.CORONAVIRUS PRECAUTIONS • Mandatory hand-washing for all ministers and thorough washing of all liturgical vessels. • Permission to suspend Holy Communion from the Chalice accompanied by encouragement to receive Holy Communion in the hand and not on the tongue. • Permission to suspend physical contact during the Sign of Peace. • Permission to empty Holy Water fonts.

Please note: these precautions are of limited effectiveness. They are no substitute for staying home when you are ill. We will continue to monitor the progression of this disease and make appropriate recommendations. Clergy and lay leaders are to make prudent decisions so that non-essential gatherings are avoided. In addition to the effect on physical health, I am concerned about the social and economic impacts of this outbreak. Isolation and loneliness are already experienced by so many people. I encourage clergy to discuss with Finance and Pastoral Councils how the parish might offer outreach to those who are affected by social isolation or how they could collaborate with the local community to provide support to those needing financial aid because of health care costs or lack of employment. Please offer the following or a similar intention at Masses: For all people affected by COVID-19 or any serious illness, the elderly and homebound, as well as all medical personnel and caregivers for the sick.

Archdiocese of Denver:

The bishops of the three dioceses of Colorado have announced that all public Masses have been canceled, effective immediately. This includes daily Masses. Parishes offices will remain open for now. More information will be posted shortly….NOTE: When Mass is unavailable, the Catholic faithful are dispensed from their Sunday obligation.

This decision was made was made in the interest of the common good after the governor of Colorado ordered the cancellation of all public gatherings of 250 or more people. We are acting out of prudence and in charity to our communities to do our part to mitigate the spread of this virus. We have the examples of countries from around the world, where those who took proactive steps quickly are seeing far better outcomes. 

Diocese of Salt Lake City:

Based on Bishop Oscar A. Solis’ consultation with senior diocesan staff and the announcement from Governor Gary R. Herbert regarding the precautions to be taken with regard to the coronavirus disease, Bishop Solis is suspending the public celebration of worship, including Sunday, weekday and other Holy Masses from March 14 to March 31, or until further notice.During this time, Catholic school facilities will close and instruction to students will be provided remotely. Each individual school will contact parents and inform them of how instruction will be delivered at home for each grade level.The Utah Catholic Schools do not have any confirmed cases of COVID-19, but some students and family members have been quarantined due to their possible exposure to the virus.All other parish or school meetings, public gatherings and other events also are canceled. Funerals and weddings are to be postponed when possible; otherwise, these are to be limited to immediate family members only.Private Confessions will depend on the availability of the priest.Churches may remain open for personal prayer as appropriate; holy water fonts must be emptied to help avoid transmission of virus.By reason of this emergency, a general dispensation is given from the Sunday and Holy Day obligation. Catholics are asked to pray at home, with the rosary, biblical prayer, personal devotions and/or to devoutly watch televised Masses. It is appropriate to pray for the healing of those suffering the current outbreak of illness, for health professionals, public officials and those serving the common good, and to ask that our merciful and loving Father will strengthen our faith and trust in His goodness and divine providence. “In view of the very serious development of the growing, unpredictable and uncontrolled spread of the coronavirus and with an abundance of caution, it is critical to have clearly defined measures to guide us in facing this pandemic and protecting everyone,” Bishop Solis said. “It is no longer about containment of the spread of the disease but preventing the loss of lives and the greater well-being of the faithful.”

The Best Posts of the Week of March 8, 2020

The best posts of the week of March 8, 2020.

This week was one for the books, that's for sure.

Oil closes under $30.00 bbl

The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Free Society

A Cornucopia of Coronavirus Questions

Panic

Panic

One of the real measures of people is how they act during a panic.

And that's a measure of a society as well.

And American society isn't holding up well by that standard.  Indeed, there's a lot right now for Americans to be ashamed of.

Contrary to widespread popular belief, the last time the US was faced with a pandemic it was widely reported on by the press.  There's a persistent myth, and that's just what it is, that the 1918/19 Spanish Flu Epidemic was kept a secret.  It certainly was not.

Ultimately various communities imposed quarantines, closing schools, public gatherings and church services. By the time that was done things were really rolling along, which can be used as an argument it was done too late, or it can be used as an argument that there wasn't a premature panic.  What people didn't do is go to the store and buy tons of toilet paper.

Over the past week Americans have been acting shamefully.  They've cleared the shelves out of toilet paper.  Locally they wiped the shelves clean of ramen noodles.  And oddest of all, and not locally, ammunition wholesalers are now out of 9mm ammunition at the wholesale level.

That's just absurd.

This sort of behavior is based on the theory that there's going to be a general quarantine and you'll have to live in your house for a month, defending your supply of toilet paper and ramen noodles. 

That isn't going to happen.

Some people like to panic about stuff and this is their dream come true.  "Preppers" finally have an emergency of the type they've been hoping for for years.  It's a manufactured one, of course.

And to some extent, a person has to question the closing of everything. 

It's also become the fodder of every columnist and pundit going.  CNN had a commentator on the other day virtually screaming at the audience with a general message of panic.  Mona Charen's recent article suggest that due to the election of President Trump there aren't going to be enough hospital beds for the ill.  Both Biden and Sanders, who have no better idea of how to handle this than Trump, are saying they'd "do things much differently".  Maybe they would, but it probably wouldn't be any more competently.

And that's because nobody is willing to approach this from a rational scientific prospective.

March 14, 1920. Day two of the Kapp Putsch, day one of the Ruhr Uprising

On this day the Kapp Putsch was back in the news, which for an attempted coup is bad news.  By now, the new government should have been absolute, and it wasn't.

Indeed, in the Ruhr, a full scale left wing uprising was in progress.  The Red Rurh Army, 50,000 men strong, was contesting the results of Kapp Putsch in Berlin.

A Cornucopia of Coronavirus Questions

If you have a good grasp on the Covid-19 situation, good for you.  You may be the only one.

Frankly, as somebody with a good grasp on science, I'll confess that I don't.

What I know is that Covid 19 is a member of the Coronavirus family of viruses.

So is the common cold.

Indeed, that appears to be why children are in the .2% fatality category for Covid 19.  Their immune systems are robust anyhow, and they're exposed to every Coronavirus going.  I can't recall where I learned it, but I also dimly recall that children's immune systems work a bit differently than adults in that theirs will take on near hits in terms of infections, where as adults are much more targeted.  In other words, for a kid, if its a Coronavirus, their immune system is taking it on.

I also know that mortality rates really don't start to climb into the really menacing level until people are in the 60 to 69 demographic and it keeps climbing from there.  Up in the 80+ demographic it's crowding 15%.

So that's what I know.

Is that the public health crisis that its being portrayed to be.  I.e., should a general population panic be ensuing?

Well, that's less obvious, and some say "no" while others are flaming the fans of the panic.

I've seen a post by an alleged physician (if its on the net, we need a little doubt) that really discounts the panic. It basically states, yes, take it seriously, but unless you are in the really targeted demographics, there's a lot more serious things to worry about.  A physician I personally know linked in a news article by a woman from the Pacific Coast who is a scientist herself and who had it, and recovered, as most do.  Like most, she didn't know what she had and thought it was the flu.  She was tested for the flu later, as she was curious, and found that what she had was Covid 19.

Indeed, her description of it matches very closely a couple of locals who have been sick recently and frankly I think they probably had Covid 19.  The description was that the symptoms had a very rapid onset and made a person very sick, in a flu like way, quickly.  Within hours of the first symptom hitting.  Then it stabilized and a few days later people recovered.

Indeed, with what we know, what we'd expect the advice to be is; 1) if you are sick stay home, and when you recover, stay home for a few more days; and 2) avoid older people even if you aren't sick so you don't get them sick.

Instead the reaction is reaching epic levels. But should it?

Some are saying yes.  Indeed, the entire topic has become political with both Bernie Sanders and Joe Biden saying if they were President, they'd be doing things differently.  Maybe they would, but I have some doubt the reaction under Biden would have been hugely different.  I also think, whether or not you agree with the Administration's reaction, if you are a politician campaigning on this topic you are pretty thin ice in a lot of ways.

I will also note that, ironically, if Trump, Biden and Sanders follow the now widely given age related advice, only Tulsi Gabbard would be campaigning for President right now.

Anyhow, beyond that, a fellow on CNN last night was yelling at the audience that the whole country ought to be basically shut down.

The one physician I noted, however, indicated that shutting down an economy for this is unnecessary.  And in an economy in which we're repeatedly told that a lot of people are one paycheck away from disaster, is that really that good of idea?  Indeed, with stocks now in the tank, one quasi retired fellow I know who is in the targeted demographic range is more worried about that, as his ability simply to live on his retirement income is hurt as long as the stock market is crazy.

Right now college sports, the NBA, and the NHL are all closing up shop.  Major League Baseball will likely follow suit. All that throws a lot of people right out of work.  Those people aren't likely to be in the category of people who will die from the Coronavirus but they sure are likely to be hurt by having no work.  As noted, older retirees who are in that demographic aren't exactly helped by the financial panic going around.

It would seem that a targeted approach would make more sense, which would be age related.  That would basically amount to quarantining all retirement homes for about thirty days and requiring or at least asking those in the most impacted demographics to self quarantine for the same period.  If that was done, it'd still spread very rapidly in the general population, but it would actually cycle through fast and the general population would have immunity at that point.  From a scientific perspective, that would actually kill the disease.

It's also be real pain for anyone in those demographics, to say the least.  And it would also potentially entail risks, even lethal risks to some members of the non targeted demographics, and nobody wants that. 

But then, in an open society, do we have any other way of really dealing with this, and not dealing with it effectively isn't an option.

The strategy actually being employed instead is to slow its spread with some demographic targeting.  That's in order to keep health services from being overwhelmed.  It still acknowledges, oddly enough, a general population wide spread, but at a rate that's capable of being handled over a period of months.

I'd guess a targeted approach would make the most sense in the abstract, while also being wholly unrealistic and perhaps very risky, and some medicos (but  not all by any means) essentially are trying to say that by suggesting that if you aren't in a targeted demographic, don't worry.  But an article by an Italian physician in Time says the exact opposite and speaks of people in their 40s dying, much younger than the Boomer demographic, and it also speaks of younger people getting it, surviving it, but having really wrecked health following it.  That is in fact what happened to a lot of people who survived the 1918-19 Spanish Flu. They survived it, but with such ruined health that they died within a few years anyway after suffering from real debilitations the entire time.  My mother was named after an aunt who died in just that fashion.

It's interesting that this would come from an Italian physician, as just such plagues, which were common in the ancient world, lead to the spread of Christianity in Italy in its early years.  Christians flocked to help each other during plagues, whereas pagans simply abandoned the sick.  Christians accordingly recovered in higher numbers and people took note of it.  That credited the faith and it spread.

Maybe there's a lesson in that, in that the physician, who is heir to that tradition, urged the younger cavallier people in the United States (it was addressed to Americans) to "stop killing other people", by which he meant to take it seriously and not spread it around.  That would argue for a big society wide reaction, which is what seems to have occured in Singapore and Hong Kong where infection rates are pretty low.

Will we do that?  I don't know.

We did during the Spanish Flu, but it got really rolling before we grasped what we needed to do.  We were pretty united then too, with World War One contributing to that.

Should we do that?  I don't know the answer to that either.

But I do know that people shouldn't be hoarding toilet paper.

March 13, 1920. The Kapp Putsch

On this day in 1920, in a move that would seem impossibly odd to us a century later, German right wing monarchists staged a coup that drove the democraticly elected government out of the capitol of Berlin.

The origin of the coup would amount to a book length treatise, but basically it had its origin in the fact that aristocratic elements of German society had never accepted the democratic government and yearned for a return to a monarchical autocratic form of government.  These elements were strongly represented in the German military.

The immediate cause of the coup was a late February attempt by the German military to have two Freikorps units disbanded that were made up of officers and men that were drawn from the Imperial German Navy.  The units were elite ones, which was ironic in that the rank and file of Imperial German Navy was basically Communist by the fall of 1918 and its rebellion had lead to the downfall of the German crown.  The leaders of one of the units refused to disband it which lead to a crisis and ultimately it marched on the government in Berlin, where it was located in any event.

Wolfgang Kapp

At that time, American born Wolfgang Kapp, who had spent his childhood in the United States, but who had returned to Germany with his family thereafter, and who had been involved in right wing German conspiratorial circles, declared himself to be the Chancellor.  Ironically, not only was Kapp a right wing German nationalist and civil servant, he was the son of a former Reichstag member from a liberal party that had immigrated to the United States following the defeat of liberalism in the Revolution of 1848.

The coup was initially successful as the military either sided with it or refused to oppose it.  Given this, on March 13 the Socialist government called for a general strike which was enormously adhered to.  This pit the military against nearly the whole of the urban populace.  The strike spread to the German civil service and Kapp's infant government could no longer function.  As this occured the more junior members of the officer corps began to abandon the coup.  It collapsed and negotiations began with the German political parties.  By the 18th the coup was effectively over and the government returned to office by the 20th, but it had agreed to hold new elections in June.  It did so and saw support for the SDP plummet and the beginning of the rise of German right wing parties in the Reichstag.

Kapp fled to Sweden in a departure that was basically arranged but returned to face the civil authorities two years later, at which time he ultimately died from cancer.  Hermann Ehrhardt, fled as well but was soon in charge of a Freikorps like police unit in Bavaria.  Ironically, he was an opponent of Hitler's even though he flirted with Nazism and opposed Hitler's Beer Hall Putsch in 1923.  Rumored to be targeted for assassination in the Night of the Long Knives, he fled to Austria.  He later returned to Germany but was imprisoned by the Nazi government.  He died in 1971.

The entire affair was demonstrative of the precarious condition of the German civil government.  Ebert's government had only managed to stay in power against a left wing rebellion by making concessions to the military and, when the time came, it was finding it difficult to regain control of that military.  The military itself was lead by right wing aristocrats who were hostile to mass democratic government and who favored a return to a more autocratic one.  The German civil service to some degree was right wing and supported the military in that goal.

The coup attempt also demonstrated, however, that at that time the German populace remained fairly left wing and supportive of their government.  Without some form of representative government in power it was clear that at the street level the German population would fight the military and bring about its downfall.

Blog Mirror: A Hundred Years Ago. 1920 Lenten Luncheon Menu

1920 Lenten Luncheon Menu

The Coronavirus Pandemic and the Free Society

Janis Joplin, who famously and incorrectly sang "Freedom's just another name for nothing left to lose".

When in trouble
Or in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and shout!

Phrase common with field artillerymen in the 1980s

When in danger
When in doubt
Run in circles
Scream and Shout

Infantry Journal, Vol 35, pg 369 (1929)

Pandemic

A plague doctor wearing the special costume of such doctors at the time. The costume was thought to protect the wearer against the plague.  If it seems weirdly creepy, it's probably just about as effective as wearing a surgical mask in a public place.

Pandemic:

A pandemic is the worldwide spread of a new disease.

World Health Organization.

An epidemic of disease, or other health condition, that occurs over a widespread area (multiple countries or continents) and usually affects a sizeable part of the population.

U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.

Pandemic refers to an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, usually affecting a large number of people.

U.S. Center for Disease Control.

Pandemic: An epidemic (a sudden outbreak) that becomes very widespread and affects a whole region, a continent, or the world due to a susceptible population. By definition, a true pandemic causes a high degree of mortality (death) 

By contrast:  

• An epidemic affects more than the expected number of cases of disease occurring in a community or region during a given period of time. A sudden severe outbreak within a region or a group as, for example, AIDS in Africa or AIDS in intravenous drug users. 
• An endemic is present in a community at all times but in low frequency. An endemic is continuous as in the case of malaria in some areas of the world or as with illicit drugs in some neighborhoods. 

The word "pandemic" comes from the Greek "pan-", "all" + "demos," "people or population" = "pandemos" = "all the people." A pandemic affects all (nearly all) of the people. By contrast, "epi-" means "upon." An epidemic is visited upon the people. And "en-" means "in." An endemic is in the people.

Web MD*

The other day I asked:

Is there a Coronavirus epidemic and if there is, will it become a pandemic?

My question aside, it's been pretty obvious the last few days there is in fact a Coronavirus pandemic.

Moreover, we're now living through something that only the absolutely oldest of us have experienced and they are too  young to remember it, a pandemic of a lethal virus with a death rate of over 2%, which is all the more than the infamous Spanish Flu of 1918-1919 had.

The Spanish Flu.

So that in fact makes this a serious matter.

Covid 19 has a high "attack rate" as its a virus that none of us have (probably) been exposed to or been exposed to a sufficiently related virus as to have a degree of immunity to.  The exception seems to be the very young, who are exposed to coronaviruses all the time as the common cold is in fact a corona virus.  In the modern world where large numbers of the very young are placed in common child care daily, and of course where those below 18 years of age are commonly in school, their systems, which are naturally stout, seem to perhaps have a degree of immunity.

The rest of us do not and therefore the infection rate is vast.  According to one estimate 30% of the American public is likely to get it. Andrea Merkel of Germany predicts that 60% to 70% of the Germans will get it.

As most responsible leaders note, that doesn't mean that most will die or anything near that.  For most infected people this is nothing more than a cold. For some it'll be a bad cold But a killer cold it won't be.

And we don't really know the mortality rate.  It's been estimated at around 3.4% which some take comfort in, but my guess is that it's below that.  Still, if it has the same mortality rate as the Spanish Flu it's rate will be a seemingly mere 2%, and it killed millions.

In fact, simply math shows why.  If, and its only an if, 100,000,000 Americans get covid 19, which is a predicted infection rate, that means 2,000,000 deaths at the Spanish Flu rate.  If the mortality rate really is 3.4%, which I doubt, that means 3,400,000 deaths.  Almost all would be elderly, as the Chinese death rates didn't exceed 3% until the age 60 to 69 age group.  Below that, it was always less than 2%, and unlike the Spanish Flu, the rates for younger adults is around .2%.

That's not the Great Plague, but it's more deaths in the general population from a virus than Americans have ever experienced before.  We've never had 2,000,000 deaths due to an outside source in a single year ever.  Although frankly, because its so concentrated in the elderly, and its not in double digits until the 80 year old plus bracket, its extremely unlikely to hit that toll in the US.  One thing we've done, that the Chinese have not, is to warehouse the elderly, which means of course that if it hits such a location, it's potentially severely bad, but that at the same time it should be easier to isolate them to keep that from occurring.

But it is something to take seriously.

It's also not something to panic about.

Let's be honest with ourselves, as a free society, we can't do that much about it.  We don't work that way.

That's the dirty grim secret of free societies, they're really risky.

Indeed, Kris Kristofferson was completely wrong when he penned Me And Bobby McGee's line;

Freedom's just another word for nothing else to lose.

The opposite is true. Freedom means you can lose everything.

We've had a post here on risk recently in this context.  But here's the part we didn't address.  One thing we accept in American society is that we're willing to exchange freedom for risk.  The entire Western World does that, but we do it more than most.

We let people drive and own cars in their mid teens. The Chinese only let individuals own cars within the last couple of decades. We don't require travel permits to travel within the interior of the country.  We let people write and say what they want.  We don't ban any religions and we don't ban political parties.  We let people buy guns.  We let people with absurd anti vaccination theories avoid vaccinating their children so they die of illnesses.

We don't do any of that, as we value freedom.  Plenty of other countries have restrictions on some or even all of these things.  And while we rarely think of it this way, one of the real features of despotism is that freedom is exchanged for safety and security.  People didn't support the Nazis in Germany, the fascists in Italy, or the Communist in Russia as they thought they'd make the world riskier.  No, people were willing to exchange freedom for the promise of security.  Less risk is what they wanted.

I note all of that as we often forget that the cries to "do something" about any one problem, in our society, have to be addressed in the context of a society that's willing to exchange risk for freedom. We accept car accidents, violence, and even occasional absurdity in exchange for it, we value it so much.

So when comparisons are made to China, get real.  The Chinese don't have a history of individual freedom and they are willing to accept a government that locks down an entire city  We aren't.

Nor are comparisons to Italy appropriate.  Italy is an ancient culture whose achievements are now ancient as well. That's to their credit.  But it's also the case that locking down an entire rural region of the country and telling people to stay home is something that the culture is comfortable with.  Italians don't feel restless if they aren't on the move.  Americans seemingly are, which is to our discredit, but it's part of the culture.  Italians don't feel that everything needs to be open 24 hours per day, seven days a week, or even open at all.  Americans do.

And what all this means is that the general level of panic we're now exhibiting needs to be tempered, or we need to reconsider what we're generally willing to tolerate as a society.  My guess is that we're not willing to accept that much change on anything, really.

None of which means that these aren't really weird times.

Indeed, I've never seen anything like it.

In my half century+ I've seen the country fight four major wars and a host of smaller spats.  For most of my early years the country was fighting a war bigger than any of the last three for my entire first two decades plus it was in a Cold War that was really serious.  I've lived through the scary inflation of the 1970s, the hostage crisis in Iran, the Great Recession of the last decade, and only one thing, I think, compares to this, and that was the collapse of the Soviet Union.  That event felt absolutely momentous.  Indeed, as one law school colleague noted, it made a person here feel like they were doing nothing at all as the Berlin Wall came down.

But a lethal pandemic?  Well, its absolutely surreal.

No wonder the initial reactions inclined either towards absolute panic or completely ignoring it.  It's just too weird.  And its getting weirder.  Last night, President Trump addressed the nation on it:

My fellow Americans: Tonight, I want to speak with you about our nation's unprecedented response to the coronavirus outbreak that started in China and is now spreading throughout the world. 

Today, the World Health Organization officially announced that this is a global pandemic. 

We have been in frequent contact with our allies, and we are marshalling the full power of the federal government and the private sector to protect the American people. 

This is the most aggressive and comprehensive effort to confront a foreign virus in modern history. I am confident that by counting and continuing to take these tough measures, we will significantly reduce the threat to our citizens, and we will ultimately and expeditiously defeat this virus. 

From the beginning of time, nations and people have faced unforeseen challenges, including large-scale and very dangerous health threats. This is the way it always was and always will be. It only matters how you respond, and we are responding with great speed and professionalism. 

Our team is the best anywhere in the world. At the very start of the outbreak, we instituted sweeping travel restrictions on China and put in place the first federally mandated quarantine in over 50 years. We declared a public health emergency and issued the highest level of travel warning on other countries as the virus spread its horrible infection. 

And taking early intense action, we have seen dramatically fewer cases of the virus in the United States than are now present in Europe. 

The European Union failed to take the same precautions and restrict travel from China and other hotspots. As a result, a large number of new clusters in the United States were seeded by travelers from Europe. 

After consulting with our top government health professionals, I have decided to take several strong but necessary actions to protect the health and wellbeing of all Americans.

To keep new cases from entering our shores, we will be suspending all travel from Europe to the United States for the next 30 days. The new rules will go into effect Friday at midnight. These restrictions will be adjusted subject to conditions on the ground. 

There will be exemptions for Americans who have undergone appropriate screenings, and these prohibitions will not only apply to the tremendous amount of trade and cargo, but various other things as we get approval. Anything coming from Europe to the United States is what we are discussing. These restrictions will also not apply to the United Kingdom. 

At the same time, we are monitoring the situation in China and in South Korea. And, as their situation improves, we will reevaluate the restrictions and warnings that are currently in place for a possible early opening. 

Earlier this week, I met with the leaders of health insurance industry who have agreed to waive all copayments for coronavirus treatments, extend insurance coverage to these treatments, and to prevent surprise medical billing. 

We are cutting massive amounts of red tape to make antiviral therapies available in record time. These treatments will significantly reduce the impact and reach of the virus.

Additionally, last week, I signed into law an $8.3 billion funding bill to help CDC and other government agencies fight the virus and support vaccines, treatments, and distribution of medical supplies. Testing and testing capabilities are expanding rapidly, day by day. We are moving very quickly. 

The vast majority of Americans: The risk is very, very low. Young and healthy people can expect to recover fully and quickly if they should get the virus. The highest risk is for elderly population with underlying health conditions. The elderly population must be very, very careful. 

In particular, we are strongly advising that nursing homes for the elderly suspend all medically unnecessary visits. In general, older Americans should also avoid nonessential travel in crowded areas. 

My administration is coordinating directly with communities with the largest outbreaks, and we have issued guidance on school closures, social distancing, and reducing large gatherings. 

Smart action today will prevent the spread of the virus tomorrow. 

Every community faces different risks and it is critical for you to follow the guidelines of your local officials who are working closely with our federal health experts -- and they are the best. 

For all Americans, it is essential that everyone take extra precautions and practice good hygiene. Each of us has a role to play in defeating this virus. Wash your hands, clean often-used surfaces, cover your face and mouth if you sneeze or cough, and most of all, if you are sick or not feeling well, stay home. 

To ensure that working Americans impacted by the virus can stay home without fear of financial hardship, I will soon be taking emergency action, which is unprecedented, to provide financial relief. This will be targeted for workers who are ill, quarantined, or caring for others due to coronavirus. 

I will be asking Congress to take legislative action to extend this relief. 

Because of the economic policies that we have put into place over the last three years, we have the greatest economy anywhere in the world, by far. 

Our banks and financial institutions are fully capitalized and incredibly strong. Our unemployment is at a historic low. This vast economic prosperity gives us flexibility, reserves, and resources to handle any threat that comes our way. 

This is not a financial crisis, this is just a temporary moment of time that we will overcome together as a nation and as a world. 

However, to provide extra support for American workers, families, and businesses, tonight I am announcing the following additional actions: I am instructing the Small Business Administration to exercise available authority to provide capital and liquidity to firms affected by the coronavirus. 

Effective immediately, the SBA will begin providing economic loans in affected states and territories. These low-interest loans will help small businesses overcome temporary economic disruptions caused by the virus. To this end, I am asking Congress to increase funding for this program by an additional $50 billion. 

Using emergency authority, I will be instructing the Treasury Department to defer tax payments, without interest or penalties, for certain individuals and businesses negatively impacted. This action will provide more than $200 billion of additional liquidity to the economy. 

Finally, I am calling on Congress to provide Americans with immediate payroll tax relief. Hopefully they will consider this very strongly. 

We are at a critical time in the fight against the virus. We made a life-saving move with early action on China. Now we must take the same action with Europe. We will not delay. I will never hesitate to take any necessary steps to protect the lives, health, and safety of the American people. I will always put the wellbeing of America first. 

If we are vigilant -- and we can reduce the chance of infection, which we will -- we will significantly impede the transmission of the virus. The virus will not have a chance against us. 

No nation is more prepared or more resilient than the United States. We have the best economy, the most advanced healthcare, and the most talented doctors, scientists, and researchers anywhere in the world. 

We are all in this together. We must put politics aside, stop the partisanship, and unify together as one nation and one family. 

As history has proven time and time again, Americans always rise to the challenge and overcome adversity. 

Our future remains brighter than anyone can imagine. Acting with compassion and love, we will heal the sick, care for those in need, help our fellow citizens, and emerge from this challenge stronger and more unified than ever before. 

God bless you, and God bless America. Thank you.

President Trump is correct that we've seen things like this before. . . as human beings, and we'll see them again, but Americans haven't seen a thing like this since 1919 and we're ill prepared to grasp it psychologically.  And blaming this on other nations and cultures is quite misplaced.   Former Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie noted, on last week's Meet The Press, that when he ordered a nurse who flew into New Jersey with symptoms of SARS (I think) quarantined he was roundly criticized for violating her civil rights.  That's how we tend to think, or at least how we think until the point of overreaction. And that seems where we are now, overreaction.

The Governor of New York called out the New York National Guard to go to New Rochelle New York, where there's been a covid 19 outbreak in a retirement home.  The NBA has suspended the rest of its season.  Universities are shutting down or going to on line instruction for the rest of the semester.

In Central Wyoming, there's been a run on toilet paper for no discernible reason. And on hand sanitizer as well, with that product actually providing some service for the first time in its history.

On Wall Street there's a panicky sell off.

Electronic snake oil salesmen, who previously shilled magic foods that promised to cure what ills you, or at least let you eat as much as you wanted and still get thin, now promise to prevent the coronavirus with their dubious products.

And it'll only get more like this.

Surreal times.

 And yet, in our society, people are still going to travel and they're still going to go to work sick.

Mid Week At Work. Cudahy Packing Company, Omaha Nebraska. 1910.

Oil closes under $30.00 bbl

Yesterday, that is.

The last time oil was that low was December, 2003.  And in real terms, it's lower now than it was then.

Indeed, the actual last time oil was as low as it currently is was in 1999.

Now, in the 1990s and the 2000s, when oil reached its current low mark, it didn't stay there.  In fact, it shortly thereafter rocketed skyward.  In the late 90s price crash the price went up to $40.00 bbl, which is more then than now, fairly quickly.  In the 2003 crash it soon recovered and over time went up to $151.00 bbl, a price that's unlikely to be the rebounding price here.

And there is likely to be a rebound.  Saudi Arabia, which is depressing the price, actually can't meet its expenditures if the price is lower than $80 bbl.  Nobody knows how low Russia can go, but the Saudis are betting that it can't stay this low long.  They may be right.

The Russians seem to be betting that they can, and there's additional speculation that they may be aiming to damage the American oil industry, which needs prices to be $50 bbl.  The US is the world's largest oil producer and is an energy exporter once again, but if we need $50, and the Russians can stay well below that, it'll result in a lot of American production being shut in and the Russians may gain the market.

Which leads to an additional theory, although one I'd discount, which is that the Russians hope to be low enough to hurt the Saudis and get part of their share while not so low as to hurt the American market, which would boost the OPEC share.

We'll see.

Anyway you look at it,a prolonged oil war between Russia and Saudi Arabia, an Oligarchy v a Monarchy, isn't good for American oil production and its really bad for the state.

Of course war, which this is only by analogy, is also bad for those who engage in them, and the outcomes are never predictable.  The US is never good at waging sustained war, as recent events once again have demonstrated, as people tire of them and in a democratic society they vote them out, basically.

Despotic countries are better at keeping wars running, but not necessarily winning them. Nazi Germany kept World War Two running well past the point of no return for the state.  Imperial Japan had lost the war prior to Iwo Jima.  Imperial Germany kept the war running right up to the point of internal revolution which in turn destroyed it.

The current head of Saudi Arabia is jailing family opposition to his rule and we know that Putin doesn't tolerate very much dissent.  But there are a lot of Sauds who depend on oil checks to evade working and there's plenty of Russians whose dachas depend on petrobucks.  At the current prices, they'll be hurting.  And nobody knows where that leads.

March 10, 1920. Border Trouble. Harding runs.

It read like papers a decade prior, trouble on the border.

And, while we haven't been covering it much, there was plenty of ongoing trouble in Mexico.  Woodrow Wilson may have declared Carranza the legitimate head of state, but there were still armed contestants on that claim and they were pretty active.  For that matter, Carranza's regime was shaky internally.  Mexico remained troubling and in trouble.

And Senator Harding  of Ohio was entering the fray. . .

He actually already had, but after New Hampshire, where Gen. Leonard Wood had taken the first victory of the season, Harding was in the west, in Denver specifically, drawing attention to his campaign.

Today In Wyoming's History: March 9

Today In Wyoming's History: March 9: 2020.  Governor Gordon issues the following statement.

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE March 9, 2020 CONTACT: Michael Pearlman, Communications Director Governor Gordon issues statement on Wyoming legislators who attended a conference where an attendee tested positive for coronavirus CHEYENNE, Wyo. – Governor Mark Gordon has issued the following statement about members of the Wyoming Legislature who attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC). An attendee of the conference was subsequently diagnosed with coronavirus.  It has come to my attention that several Wyoming legislators attended the Conservative Political Action Conference (CPAC) on February 29 where an attendee was subsequently diagnosed with coronavirus. I am given to believe that House and Senate leadership is aware of the issue. At this time it does not appear that any members of the Wyoming legislature had contact with this individual. Our state health officer has been notified and has identified these legislators as low risk. She advised that these individuals should continue to monitor their health closely at this time. I urge Wyoming citizens to recognize that as Covid 19 becomes more widespread, it is likely that many of us will eventually cross paths with someone with symptoms of the disease and people who are later diagnosed. We should continue to follow recommendations from healthcare professionals, including regular hand washing, covering the nose and mouth when coughing or sneezing, and staying home when sick.

Monday at the Bar. Chuck Schumer demonstrates contempt of court

Last week New York Senator Chuck Schumer appeared at a protest in front of the Supreme Court and threatened U.S. Supreme Court Justices Neil Gorsuch and Bret Kavanaugh by name, claiming that they would "reap the whirlwind" if they continue with their "awful decisions".

The anticipated awful decision would be one upholding the lower Federal Circuit Court's opinion regarding the Louisiana Unsafe Abortion Protection Act.   That law requires doctors who perform abortions to have hospital privileges at a hospital within 30 miles of where any abortion they perform is located.

It's actually pretty difficult to see why this statute would be regarded as unconstitutional and I doubt that it is.  The lower Federal courts didn't think it was. The thesis is that the requirement places an undue burden on women seeking abortions as that will, presumably, limit the number of doctors who perform them.  That may have been the intent of the law, but the lower court didn't buy it.  I doubt the Supreme Court will either.

To listen to the commentary on the statute, however, you would think that it struck down Roe v. Wade, which it most definitely did not.  That hasn't kept abortion advocates from acting as if that's what will be decided by the Court, which is unlikely, and that's why Schumer was out campaigning, which is really what he was doing.

Schumer stated to the crowd, as reported by legal blogger Amy Howe, the following:

I want to tell you, Gorsuch; I want to tell you, Kavanaugh. You have released the whirlwind. And you will pay the price. You won’t know what hit you if you go forward with these awful decisions

Schumer apparently didn't know what was going to hit him.

Schumer's comments were stupid.  He should have known better, but Schumer is another example of a Harvard educated lawyer who evaded the practice of law.  He graduated from Harvard in 1974 and passed the very difficult New York bar in 1975 (it typically has over a 50% failure rate), but he was elected to the New York Assembly in 1974 and has been a politician ever since.

As prior posts here demonstrate, I have a problem with those who secure an Ivy League legal education and don't practice.  The Ivy League has an outsized reputation for its law schools, but part of their real legacy is lawyers who don't practice.  I guess you can't force a person who graduated law school to practice, but there's something that's simply not right about that.

One of the things that isn't right is that the person in that situation has an academic legal education but no idea of how things are in the real legal world.  One of those things that Schumer should have known is that threatening a judge is contempt of court.

In that context, Schumer got off easy.  As Howe reported:

In a statement released by the Supreme Court this afternoon, Roberts – without repeating the names of the justices who were the target of Schumer’s wrath – criticized Schumer’s remarks. “Justices know,” Roberts declared, “that criticism comes with the territory, but threatening statements of this sort from the highest levels of government are not only inappropriate, they are dangerous.” Roberts concluded: “All Members of the Court will continue to do their job, without fear or favor, from whatever quarter.”

Rebukes by Supreme Court justices are rare, but this is the second time Roberts has made one.  The Press has reported this as "only the second time" but most Chief Justices never issue a rebuke.  The first time came when President Trump referred to a Judge as "an Obama judge", which also drew Robert's disapproval.

On this occasion Roberts would have been within his rights to have cited Schumer for contempt of court.  Of course that would have been extreme and have brought rebuke itself. Schumer has attempted to walk back his statements, but more than anything else they serve to bring to mind the question as to why the two most senior members of the Democratic Party in Congress are such fixtures and if they really aren't well past their prime.

Roberts is correct.  The Court will do its job.  And in reality, this particular case isn't anything near being what the Press keeps suggesting it is, no matter what a person's opinion on it may be.

March 9, 1920. Primaries, Republicans, Democrats, Communists, Anarchists and Smoking.

On this day in 1920 the New Hampshire Primaries were held.  It was the first time that New Hampshire's primary had the "first in the nation" status and only the second time it had been held, having been established in 1916.

The top Republican vote getter was Gen. Leonard Wood, where as the top Democrat was Herbert Hoover.

Wood was a physician and career Army officer who was a close associate of Theodore Roosevelt. That was part of the reason that Wood had been bypassed for the senior command of the U.S. Army in France during World War One, but only part of the reason.  That same association, however, made him a very serious contender for the 1920 Republican nomination.

Hoover, a mining engineer by trade, had come into the public eye due to his leadership of relief efforts in Europe following World War One.  During the war and following it he'd urged that taxes be raised and he'd been a critic of the Palmer raids.  He ran on Progressive policies such as the establishment of a minimum wage, the elimination of child labor, and a forty-eight hour work week.  While he did well in the New Hampshire primary as a Democrat, that very month he switched parties and in 1928 he ran, successfully, as a Republican.

Regarding politics, elsewhere Alexander Berkman and Emma Goldman met with Lenin. They were among those who had been deported several weeks prior.  Both had been born in Imperial Russia and their radicalism resulted in their being rounded up and sent back there just prior to the Palmer Raids.

In meeting with Lenin they complained about Communists treatment of anarchists and lack of freedom of the press.  Lenin told them to pound sand.  Both would later write books about their delusionment with Soviet Russia.

In some ways its hard not to regard both of them as completely delusional.

In Cheyenne, the paper noted an effort to wipe out smoking by 1925.

The New Hampshire's first in the nation status wasn't a big deal at the time and it didn't make the front page of any Wyoming newspaper on this day.

The troubles over the ratification of the Versailles Treaty, however, did.

With all this news, it's no wonder some folks felt they needed a drink.

307 Day

Apparently some people now celebrate March 7 as 307 Day.  In Wyoming, that is.

I missed it.

For those who might wonder why, 307 is Wyoming's area code.  I'm frankly not keen on the modern trend, at least around here, of identifying with an area code, but it's pretty widespread.

International Women's Day, 2020

March 8, 1920. Villa back in the headlines, Syria declares a putative state, Allies and Turks clash, Motoring hazards.

Pancho Villa was back in the headlines on this day in 1920, seemingly back to his old habits.

And the unfinished results of World War One were in the headlines in regard to Turkey, whose new government was fighting the Allied powers that were in the country and seeking to redraw its map.

Part of that map had already been redrawn as imperial possessions of the Ottoman Empire were severed from it. What would become of them wasn't quite known at the time, but the Syrian National Congress thought it knew what should happen to that part which was Syrian.  On this day in 1920 it declared Syria to be an independent Arab kingdom with Hashemite Emir Faisal, famous for his role in the Arab Revolt during the Great War as its king.

King Faisal I of Syria.

Syria had been regarded as the prize by Arab revolutionaries during World War One and Faisal's ascendency of its thrown was therefore a personal ascendency as well.  It would be instantly challenged by France, which felt itself to have a special role in Syria dating back to the Middle Ages.   This was known to the  Syrians at the time, and indeed Faisal had already entered into an agreement with France which more or less made Syria a French protectorate. That agreement was massively disliked in Syria and was renounced by Faisal prior to his being declared the king.  The declaration of independence would shortly lead to the San Remo Conference which would decide Syria's statuts, at least for the short term, as well as the status of Faisal's claim to a Syrian throne.

Also in the Middle East on this day, there were protests in Jerusalem.  

Protests at the Damascus Gate in Jerusalem.

The protests would keep on and would soon turn violent.  Their focus was opposition to Jewish immigration into Palestine but the motivation for protests on this day and the day prior were sparked by the Syrian National Congress declaring the existence of the Syrian state, which claimed British controlled lands within its boundaries.

On a lighter note, Gasoline Alley pondered one of the hazards of the motor age.

I was actually in a motor vehicle accident in the late 1980s when a kid doing something just such as this rear ended my 1954 Chevrolet sedan.

Sunday Morning Scene: Churches of the West: St. Andrew's In the Pines Episcopal Church, Pinedale, Wyoming.

Churches of the West: St. Andrew's In the Pines Episcopal Church, Pinedale, Wyoming:

St. Andrew's In the Pines Episcopal Church, Pinedale Wyoming

Early morning, and poorly focused, photograph of Pinedale's St. Andrew's In the Pines in Pinedale, Wyoming.  This is a nice log structure, but I don't know its vintage.

Best Post of the Week of February 30, 2020

The best posts of the week of February 30, 2020

Lex Anteinternet: The peace treaty in Afghanistan.

Blog Mirror: 1920 Tips to Prevent Spreading Disease and The Velveteen Rabbit

The 2020 Election, Part 5

The 2020 Election, Part 6

The Wyoming Legislature 2020, Part Two

Lex Anteinternet: December 13, 1918. Crossing the Rhine. . and on March 7, 1945

Lex Anteinternet: December 13, 1918. Crossing the Rhine. . and on March 7, 1945

Same bridge, same Army, crossed under fire the second time in 1945 on this day.

Lex Anteinternet: December 13, 1918. Crossing the Rhine:

December 13, 1918. Crossing the Rhine

American soldiers crossing the Rhine at Remagen, over the Ludendorff Bridge. This same bridge would be fought over fiercely in March, 1945 and was so badly damaged by German efforts and the battle itself that it would ultimately collapse.  By that time, it had served, for the second time, as a major American conduit across the Rhine.

From the British National Health Service:

Common questions-Coronavirus (COVID-19)

If you have to say "it's me", it isn't.

L'état, c'est moi

Louis XIV

"The state, that's me".  Nope it wasn't.

Je suis la révolution.

Napoleon Bonaparte

"I am the revolution".  No, you weren't.

Something to remember.  The next time you hear that, "I am the . . ", whatever it is. They aren't.  People making that claim are trailing in the wake.

Oh great. I've now seen the first television doctor comparing COVID 19 with the Spanish Flu. . .

and claiming it's just as bad.

Well, at least there's not a giant global world war adding to things.

75th Anniversary of the March 6, 1945 tank duel in Cologne

March 6, 1920. Q-tips.

Judge magazine, March 6, 1920.  Illustration by James Montgomery Flagg, who is best known for his Uncle Sam recruiting poster.

On this day in 1920, according to some sources, Q-tips, were invented.

Q-tips are widely used for cleaning out ear wax even though the practice is enormously discouraged by physicians and indeed, its associated with a real risk of injury.

Blog Mirror: Only The Lover Sings.

From Catholic Stuff You Should Know, a profound podcast with a deceptive title:

ONLY THE LOVER SINGS

The title is from a the partial title of a book by the profound Josef Pieper. 

Well worth listening to, there's some really interesting comments on our fast over abundance and how that leads to another sort of poverty.

The Turks and the Syrians go at it and . . .

it's confusing from our prospective, as well as predictable.

The Syrians, whom we don't like, are moving in on the last unoccupied portion of their country. That is, the government is advancing on the last rebel held portions.

The Turks are aiding the rebels and are now set to fully intervene.  Indeed, the Syrians and the Turks are fighting each other to some extent.

Up the Turks and down the Syrians, right?

Well, the rebels in that area are an Al Queda aligned group.  Turkey's leader, Recep Tayyip Erdogan is an Islamist, albeit an elected one, who has been very heavy handed in his own country.  Syria's leader Bashar al-Assad is a Baathist, which makes him a member of a fascist party.  So a democratically elected Islamist, whose general direction we don't like, is fighting in support of one of our enemies while a dictatorial fascist leaders is seeking to crush them.  As we pointed out long ago, in Syria its the government that's western. . . but not the brand of westerism we approve of, and the enemies of the government tend to be dominated by forces that also despise us.

Of course, to make matters even more complicated, our recent withdraw impacted the only forces in the region, those being the Kurds, who are actually a force and even remotely see things the way we do.  But part of the way they see the world includes an independent region in northern Syria and Iraq, as well as in western Turkey and a slice of Iran, all of which they deserve.  They're native to the region, which doesn't factor into the aims of any Arab, Turkish or Persian government of any kind.  We were their only real advocates.

The Syrians have the Russians as their advocate and, ironically, the Iranians as well, ironically, although recently the Turks have been making a bid for Russian support.

Now they're making a bid for European support out of a sense of European desperation as they're sending large numbers of Syrian refugees Europe's way.

And this mess isn't close to being over.

Well of course, with all that's going on, Coronavirus in South Korea, China, Japan, Italy and the United States, Super Tuesday, a putative peace arrangement in Afghanistan and conflict between Syria and Turkey. . .

Kim Jong-Un would have his forces launch a bunch of missiles into the sea.

Russian missile launcher from Wikipedia. The North Korean ones are predictably similar to this.

It's like he just can't stand to be out of the headlines.