The Scapegoat

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 2. The Gathering Storm.

We're only on to Feb 1 and already on to the second edition of this thread for 2023.

The reason is simple enough, the last version is already so long that certain features, such as the spell check, aren't working for new entries.  It's easier and more convenient to put up a second edition.

The big news remains, of course, the war in Ukraine.  Now a year old, the drama saw an anticipated Russian walk over turn into a monumentally expensive military disaster, with the Russians suffering battlefield defeats and being pushed out of much of what they'd taken in the first weeks of the war.  

Right now, the battlefield is nearly static, recalling the long stretches of World War One where neither side had the ability to defeat the other.  What seems to be really going on, however, is that the Russians have taken a page out of the Soviet Union's playbook and have been buying time with bodies, sending in convicts and conscripts to soak up Ukrainian munitions while they build towards a resumed offensive which is expected to start soon.

The Ukrainians know this, and are trying to prepare for it.  Part of that preparation is the acquisition of modern Western heavy weapons, which have not yet been provided to them. Western military analysts have been critical of the West for this, but frankly, early in the war nobody saw the Ukrainians being in the position they now are in.  

So a race is on, in which the West scrambles to provide modern main battle tanks, and Ukraine asks for any new system, including F-16s, which it thinks it can get and needs, against a Russian build up based on lessons learned and a larger army.

What should be clear is this.  Putin cannot negotiate, at least not unless he fears a disaster that will remove him from office completely.  Ukraine cannot give in.  It's easy to figure out what a Russian victory would be, but harder to figure out how Ukraine can force a battlefield conclusion.

Having said that, Ukraine might be able to push Russia out of Ukraine entirely, and if I were their strategist, which I'm not, advance across the frontier to the western bank of the Don, which would give the country some security and perhaps something to cause a coup in Russia.  But if they are going to do so, they'll have to achieve that in the next several months as it fights a country whose population has 100,000,000 more souls than it does.

Slava Ukraini.

February 1, 2023, continued:

An announcement from the Canadian government:

Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The Prime Minister expressed Canada’s ongoing solidarity with the Ukrainian people as they continue to fight Russia’s brutal invasion while facing Russian strikes on civilian targets. The two leaders discussed Ukraine’s military, humanitarian, and financial needs, as well as the recent announcements of significant new support to Ukraine. They also spoke about how Canada and like-minded partners could continue working together to meet Ukraine’s needs due to Russia’s ongoing illegal and unprovoked invasion.

The Prime Minister and the President talked about the upcoming somber anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24, and the Prime Minister reaffirmed Canada’s support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. Prime Minister Trudeau welcomed President Zelenskyy’s diplomatic efforts toward a just peace, and the two leaders discussed ongoing engagement with the Global South.

The leaders agreed to remain in close and regular contact.

Canada recently announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, out of an inventory of 112, of which 82 are the combat model and the rest an engineering model.

A couple of things.

The Canadian Army doesn't have a lot of tanks, but its only really likely to need its tanks if Ukraine goes down in defeat and Russia turns its gaze on other territory it once ruled.  Regarding Leopard 2 tanks in general, the British paper the Guardian notes:

There are over 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks available or in storage in 13 Nato countries, according to the IISS, whereas there are only 227 Challenger 2 tanks in the British entire army.

2,300.

The Ukrainians are basically asking for about 300, or at least 100.

There's plenty of them around, although some countries, the Guardian notes, have let theirs deteriorate to such a state they're pretty much unusable. Spain is in that category.

The US has 2,300 M60s in storage. They're not being used at all.  A lot of them are probably not serviceable, but a lot of them could be made serviceable.

Also, Justin Trudeau came into office with a pledge to withdraw Canadian forces from their commitments in the Middle East. This isn't the Middle East, and of course the United States made a dog's breakfast out of its withdrawal from Afghanistan about two years ago.  But it's interesting how events tend to dictate what countries do, as opposed to countries opting how events will proceed.

Canada, FWIW, has a pretty large Ukrainian Canadian population, that being people of Ukrainian heritage.  It's estimated to number 1,359,655 people.

February 2, 2023

Israel-Hamas

Israeli aircraft hit Hamas targets in Gaza following a rocket attack.

Russo-Ukrainian War

Careful watchers of the Op Ed page might note that there's been a growing theme in the last couple of weeks of defeatist "Ukraine can never win" type of opinions being published by pundits. Boiled down, the general gist of them is 1) yes the Ukrainians have managed to hold off the Russians so far, but the Russians have an infinite capacity to absorb losses and 2) they're going to ultimately win through sheer attrition and 3) therefore, NATO support is just prolonging the suffering.

Probably all of these commentators have been against NATO support for Ukraine since the onset, for different reasons. Some are likely America Firsters, others highly fiscally conservative, and some probably Russian sympathizers. The message, however, is all the same, and this will keep up for a while in anticipation of the oncoming Russian offensive.

Historically, it might be worth remembering that the "lesson of history" that "Russia always prevails" is not supported much by actual examples.   If we go back a bit, the opposite seems to be the case.

Russia lost the Crimean War, which lead to an unsuccessful effort to modernize the Russian state.  It also lost the Russo-Japanese War.  It also lost against the Germans in World War One, leading to a complete collapse of the Russian government and revolution, replacing the existing regime with a democratic one which was in turn replaced by a Communist one.

It was on the winning side, of course, in World War Two, but its victory in that war has been so heavily mythologized that it became misunderstood.  In reality, the USSR started off as a German ally, taking part of Poland and the Baltic States, but being fought to a standstill by the much smaller nation of Finland.  Its status changed in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany, but it was not able to arrest German progress without massive American and British aid.  Had the Western Allies chosen to ignore the Soviet Union, which they really could not have, it's not really known what would have occurred.  Lenin bargained away Poland, Belorussia and Ukraine to the Germans in 1917 in order to retain control of Russia itself, and it may well have done the same in World War Two but for Allied assistance.  Germany's land lust was vast, but it never intended to take all of Russia and in fact it never occupied very much of it, most of its success being in the lands just mentioned.  Moreover, the Soviets were able to rely upon the Belorussians and Ukrainians, for the most part, to fight against the Germans.  People the USSR regarded as non-Russian nationalities made up to 45% of the Red Army, with Ukrainians making up over 60% of the Red Army on the Ukrainian Fronts.  Jewish soldiers in the Red Army, regarded as a separate nationality, were more likely to be decorated for combat than Russians.

Looked at that way, the current war is the first time the Russians have fought a war in which their army has been more or less ethnically homogeneous since the Russian Civil War.  Moreover, the actual history of Russian wars is that the Russians can endure a long war and then collapse into revolution.  The Crimean War saw Cossack revolts. The Russo Japanese War led to the 1905 revolution.  World War one lead to the complete collapse of the Russian state.

Ukraine can win, but it has to be given the means to do so, and very soon.  If Ukraine could be adequately armed this month, and that is what it may take, the oncoming Russian spring offensive could end up a disaster.  When Russian armies experience collapse, which they never did during World War Two, it usually leads to a downfall in the Kremlin.  

February 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine is reporting that Putin has ordered the Russian forces to  capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023.

The particularly concerning thing about this is that it's very doubtful that new armor will be deployed in Ukraine by the time of the Russian offensive.

Russians have been seeking passports in mass numbers. Russia has suspended issuing them, and now Russians are seeking foreign passports.

China

China has been overflying the United States with a spy balloon.   The US pondered shooting it down, but concluded its intelligence gathering abilities are limited, and it would be more dangerous as a falling object.  

Yesterday it was over Montana.

February 4, 2023

China

A second Chinese spy balloon has been spotted, this one headed for an overflight of South America.

Secretary of State Blinken cancelled an intended visit to China over this.

Frankly, there's no good reason for the US not to have shot this down over southern Canada, if Canada would have allowed for it to happen, or for the Canadians to do it.  Likewise, while it was over Wyoming or Montana, it should have been shot down.  The junk it's carrying would have hit nothing.

Russia

The US is seeking to expel the Wagner Group from Sudan and Libya.

Feb 4, cont.

China v. US.

Perhaps for the first time since World War One, a US aircraft has shot down a balloon.

February 6, 2023

China v. US.

The Administration has announced that it was discovered that the Chinese flew spy balloons over the US during the Trump administration, but apparently they were not detected at the time.  The revelation was dismissed by Trump as "fake disinformation". The Biden Administration offered to brief the Trumpites.

At any rate, the news that the Chinese have been able to pull this off over the past several years undetected is not good news.

Additionally, with the past week or so a U.S. Air Force general has stated that he's fairly certain there will be a war between the United States and China over the defense of Taiwan.  Interestingly this has been a sort of Republican rallying point even though some sections of the GOP are willing to abandon Ukraine.  While perhaps not obvious to everyone, a Ukrainian victory would perhaps serve to delay that, and delay might serve to prevent it.

As for the balloon itself, there is speculation that this was an intentional provaction designed to demonstrate that the US couldn't react, and would do so ineffectively.  If so, it probably partially succeeded in demonstrating that, given as the US was so slow to shoot it down.

February 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine's president, asking for more arms for the country yesterday, also asked for admission to the European Union.

February 11, 2023

China v. US and Canada

Two more balloons have now been shot down, one over norther Alaska and one over British Columbia.  The US shot them both down, the latter via a Canadian request.

The balloons have not been affirmatively identfied as Chinese, but seeing as China is a 19th Century imperial power and balloons a 19th Century surveillance aircraft, it seems likely.

China has become a full blown menace. Where this is headed seems fairly obvious.

February 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

There are suddenly a lot of voices coming out of Russia suggesting that it won't be able to launch its anticipated spring offensive due, in part, to manpower losses.

Russia has been taking combat losses like crazy the past couple of weeks, and while its made slight gains, they've been very slight and are comiing at a huge cost.

Ukraine has destroyed a Russian  BMPT Terminator in combat. The much vaunted autonomous combat vehicle was overblown to start with and unlikely to amount much, as has been the case with all prior attempts to deploy weapons of this type.

Lithuanian supplied Bofors L70 anti-aircraft guns have arrived in Ukraine.  Ukraine itself is presssing for Western fighter aircraft.

February 12, cont:

And now another object shot down, this one over Lake Huron.

February 13, 2023

China v. US and Canada

The Aerodrome: Why Canada didn't shoot down the "unidentified" ob...:  An excellent thread on NORAD and the strategic considerations that went into it and the modern RCAF: Why didn't Canada shoot down the o...

One of the things he points out in this post is that the F-22, which Canada does not have, is one of the few aircraft capable of performing in the fighter role at such a high altitude.

The Meet the Press interviews on this were interesting.  A Congressman who is up to speed stated that he doesn't think the second and third objects are likely Chinese.  They may very well not be, and its always possible they weren't threats at all.

It's been pointed out ot me by a highly knowledgable person that the reason we may be picking up so many of these now is that NORAD has adjusted its radar screening to pick these up. The Congressman made the same point.  We have traditionally been looking for Soviet or Chinese ICBMs and Soviet aircraft, not slow moving balloons.

Finally, a commentator made the point that we may call these balloons, but they're really drones.

On a goofball level, lots of people are launching speculation on whether they indicate an alien invasion, meaning alien from outspace as opposed to alien from another country.

I also saw somebody quote Noam Chomsky, to the effect that government and elites need to keep people distracted in order to carry out their agenda.  Frankly, I don't know why anyone quotes Chomsky on anything whatsoever, other than linquistics.  Feeling that the government and elites in this country are so coordinated that they have a plan to keep us distracted while they do whatever deeply evil nepharious, and right wing, plot against the working me of the 1930s is crediting everyone with a lot more organization and foresight than they deserve.  Anyhow, that person thought the whole thing was a false flag operation.

Get a grip.

Frank Luke, who won a Congressional Medal of Honor, posthumously, for balloon busing in World War One with his SPAD S.XIII.

Russo Ukrainian War.

The Institute for the Study of War credits Russia with a real information false flag, in the form of media propoganda designed to suggest back in December that they were ready for peace talks, when they were not.  This, the Institute maintains, delayed the supplying of armor to Ukraine.

There's no reason whatsoever to believe at this point that the Russians are aiming for anything else than the complete defeat of Ukraine.

February 14, 2023

Russia v. Moldova

Moldovan coat of arms.

Moldova has revealed a Russian plot, first revealed by Ukraine last week, to destabilize the small country and bring it into the Russian orbit.

Moldova is an independent country because of Russia, but not in the way a person  might at first imagine.  It was part of the Russian Empire after 1812 and then declared independence in 1918, and then joined Romania later that same year. The country is essentially Romanian.  The Soviet Union took the territory back in 1940 which was a principal cause of Romania joining Operation Barbarossa the following year. Following the Axis defeat, the USSR took it back, but it left again after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

That Russia continues to covet it is interesting. This appears to be at least partially in reaction to Moldova's efforts to move closer to the EU in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

February 16, 2023

British defense estimates figure that the Russians have potentially committed 97% of their Army to combat in Ukraine and have now sustained so many casualties that they no longer can engage in a sustained offensive.

If this is correct, and its a big if, it would likely mean the anticiapted spring offensive is not coming, and beyond that, the Russians might not be able to mount a sustained defense against a Ukrainian offensive.

February 17, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Russians have put in excess of 6,000 Ukrainian children through reducation camps.

Marina Yankina, a Russian defense official whose role in the current war was with finance, fell, supposedly, from a 16 story building to her death.

Hmmm. . . . 

China v. US and Canada

The Aerodrome: Failed Balloon Run: It's now known that the U.S. Air Force did attempt to shoot down the Chinese balloon over Montana, using the F-22's cannons as the i...

February 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

The Wagner Group has sustained 30,000 casualties fighting in Ukraine.

Parts of the Belorussian defense industry are being taken over by Russia.

February 19, 2023

United States v. ISIS

February 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Analysts increasingly believe that Russia is in its Spring offensive, but that it has adopted a World War One attrition style strategy where it simply throws men at the Ukrainians knowing that they are expending ammunition, and lives themselves, resisting them.  The strategy isn't to be rapid, but simply cause Ukraine to hemorrhage.

Ukraine is aware of this, which is why it is begging for modern weapons with which to launch its own more mobile offensive.

Russia has committed 97% of its army to combat at its strategy is not without risk.  It's performance has been abysmal and its using up its human resources.

Some, however, believe that the slowness of the Russian advance reflects wartime attrition, and that the Russians are actually deploying per doctrine, but without much armor.

China appears ready to start supplying Russia with weapons.  The US is warning China not to do so.  There's some speculation that China hopes to prolong the war as it does not wish to see Russia fail, and it wants the US to use up its weapons stockpile so that it has nothing with which to aid Taiwan in the (highly likely) event that China attempts to invade Taiwan.

President Biden is in Kyiv.

February 22, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Vladimir Putin suspended the START Treaty regarding nuclear weapons, the irony being that a country whose conventional weapons have been shown to be ineffective, and which is using them up at a prodigious rate, can hardly afford to engage in a nuclear arms race.

Putin did this in an epic length speech on the anniversary of the war he launched on his neighbor.  The speech was telling as he claims that he's not waging a war on the Ukrainians themselves.  This raises the question of to what extent Putin might actually be delusional.

NPR released an excellent edition of its podcast State of Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of the war.

Ukrainian newspapers have broken the news that they have a secret Russian document outlining Russian plans to absorb Byelorussia by 2030.

February 23, 2023

China v. United States and Canada

The Aerodrome: United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph ...:  

United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph taken from U2

 In this photo, you can see the U2's shadow.

Russia v. Moldova

Vladimir Putin renounced his 2012 guarantee of Moldova's territorial integrity.

February 24, 2023

Russia v. Ukraine, Byelorussia and Moldova

The UN passed a resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine.

Russian troops dressed in Ukrainian uniforms have been moved near Russia's border with Byelorussia in what appears likely to be staging for a false flag attack on that country, in an effort to expand the war.

Russia also appears to be staging for a false flag operation in Transnistria, the Russian enclave/breakaway region of Moldova.  The area houses one of the world's largest prestaged arms and ammunition stockpiles.

All of this suggests that Russia is set to attempt to expand, not contract, the war.

Prior Related Threads:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023. The Bear and the Trident. The Russo Ukrainian War crosses the calendar year.

Saturday, February 17, 1923. Indianization

The Country Gentleman ran a J. F. Kernan illustration depicting, I guess, an example of homey music.  I have to wonder what the Scrapbook of Fakery related.

The Saturday Evening Post had a Cole Philliips illustration.

The British government, under increasing pressure from Indian independence movements, announced its Eight Unit Scheme of Indianiszation of the Indian Army, under which those units were to be moved towards being under the command of King's Commissioned Indian Officers.

The British Indian Army is a really confusing topic.  It was very large, under British control, but administered fairly separately from the regular British Army.  This could lead to conflicts.  For example, during World War One the eastern part of the Middle East was a zone for the Indian Army, which pursued a somewhat different goal from the British Army out of Cairo.

Today In Wyoming's History: February 17: The Legislature was also set to come home, something that every citizen holds their breath for . . .
1923  Seventeenth state legislature adjourns.

Thusday, February 11, 1943. Eisenhower becomes a General

Dwight Eisenhower war promoted to the rank of General, i.e, "four stars".

The rank had been really introduced during the Civil War, and posthumously awarded to George Washington in recognition of his importance in the Continental Army, and U.S. history, with Washington posthumously, and somewhat absurdly, appointed to higher ranks to retain his precedence over time.

During the Revolution, Washington was "Commander In Chief", which was a rank that bore three stars, and in fact demonstrated its superiority to the two other general officer ranks that then existed, Brigadier General and Major General.  After the Revolution, this rank became that of "General", retaining the three star insignia, and occupied by Washington, and then oddly enough Lt. General, which was also occupied by Washington after his time in the White House, something that's pretty much completely forgotten.  Other pre Civil War commanders of the U.S. Army, including those that came before Washington's appointment to Lt. Gen., were Major Generals (two stars) at the highest, until Winfield Scott was brevetted to Lt. Gen. during the Civil War.

During the Civil War, a "four star" rank was created called General of the Army.  U.S. Grant, William Sherman, and Phil Sheridan came to occupy that position, the last Army officers to do so, under that title, until World War Two.  A new insignia was designed for it after the war, but nobody who had not ascended to that position was promoted to it.  Other officers were appointed to the rank of "General", however, during World War One, those being:

Tasker H. Bliss:  6 Oct 1917 

John J. Pershing:  6 Oct 1917 

Peyton C. March: 20 May 1918 

Pershing, of course, was made General of the Armies, a rank intended to be equivalent to Field Marshall.

After World War One, rank inflation began to set in, and new Generals were created, those being:

Charles P. Summerall: 23 Feb 1929 

Douglas MacArthur: 21 Nov 1930 

Malin Craig: 2 Oct 1935 

George C. Marshall Jr.: 1 Sep 1939 

John L. Hines: 15 Jun 1940 

231 officers have been assigned that grade since Eisenhower, which is frankly absurd.

Eisenhower would go on to be General of the Army, but not General of the Armies, during the war, the rare five-star rank, although he's not the only one during World War Two to obtain that grade. Today, some municipal police forces actually award a five-star rank to their chief, which is insulting, as is awarding a four star, or even one star, rank to the chief.

General, the four star rank, really ought to be seriously restricted, perhaps to the Chief of Staff level, during peacetime.

There have only been five officers to obtain the rank of General of the Army, with only one, Omar Bradley, receiving that rank after World War Two.  He was promoted to that grade in 1950.  The list is:

General of the Army George C. Marshall:  16 December 1944

General of the Army Douglas MacArthur:  18 December 1944

General of the Army Dwight D. Eisenhower:  20 December 1944

General of the Air Force Hap Arnold:  21 December 1944

General of the Army Omar Bradley:  22 September 1950

Gen. Pershing, holding the rank of General of the Armies, was the highest ranking officer during World War Two, although he was not on active service.

For silly reasons, Grant and Washington were accorded this rank well after their deaths.

On this date, Winston Churchill made a speech in Parliament in which he noted Eisenhower's appointment and his elevation to theater commander.  He stated:

The Prime Minister (Mr. Churchill) The dominating aim which we set before ourselves at the Conference at Casablanca was to engage the enemy's forces on land, sea, and in the air on the largest possible scale and at the earliest possible moment. The importance of coming to ever closer grips with the enemy and intensifying the struggle outweighs a number of other considerations which ordinarily would be decisive in themselves. We have to make the enemy burn and bleed in every way that is physically and reasonably possible, in the same way as he is being made to burn and bleed along the vast Russian front from the White Sea to the Black Sea. But this is not so simple as it sounds. Great Britain and the United States were formerly peaceful countries, ill-armed and unprepared. They are now warrior nations, walking in the fear of the Lord, very heavily armed, and with an increasingly clear view of their salvation. We are actually possessed of very powerful and growing forces, with great masses of munitions coming along. The problem is to bring these forces into action. The United States has vast oceans to cross in order to close with her enemies. We also have seas or oceans to cross in the first instance, and then for both of us there is the daring and complicated enterprise of landing on defended coasts and also the building-up of all the supplies and communications necessary for vigorous campaigning when once a landing has been made.

It is because of this that the U-boat warfare takes the first place in our thoughts. There is no need to exaggerate the danger of the U-boats or to worry our merchant seamen by harping upon it unduly, because the British and American Governments have known for some time past that there were these U-boats about and have given the task of overcoming them the first priority in all their plans. This was reaffirmed most explicitly by the Combined Staffs at Casablanca. The losses we suffer at sea are very heavy, and they hamper us and delay our operations. They prevent us from coming info action with our full strength, and thus they prolong the war, with its certain 1469waste and loss and all its unknowable hazards.

Progress is being made in the war against the U-boats. We are holding our own, and more than holding our own. Before the United States came into the war, we made our calculations on the basis of British building and guaranteed Lend-Lease, which assured us of a steady and moderate improvement in our position by the end of 1943 on a very high scale of losses. There never was a moment in which we did not see our way through, provided that what the United States promised us was made good.

Since then various things have happened. The United States have entered the war, and their shipbuilding has been stepped up to the present prodigious levels, amounting for the year 1943 to over 13,000,000 gross tons, or, as they would express it in American nomenclature, 18,000,000 or 19,000,000 dead weight tons. When the United States entered the war she brought with her a Mercantile Marine, American and American-controlled, of perhaps 10,000,000 gross tons, as compared with our then existing tonnage, British and British-controlled, of about—I am purposely not being precise—twice as much. On the other hand, the two Powers had more routes to guard, more jobs to do, and they therefore of course presented more numerous targets to the U-boats. Very serious depredations were committed by the U-boats off the East coast of America until the convoy system was put into proper order by the exertions of Admiral King. Heavy losses in the Far East were also incurred at the outset of the war against Japan when the Japanese pounced upon large quantities of British and United States shipping there. The great operation of landing in North Africa and maintaining the armies ashore naturally exposed the Anglo-American fleets to further losses, though there is a compensation for that which I will refer to later; and the Arctic convoys to Russia have also imposed a heavy toll, the main part of both these operational losses having fallen upon the British.

In all these circumstances it was inevitable that the joint American and British, losses in the past 15 months should exceed the limits for which we British ourselves, in the days when we were 1470alone, had budgeted. However, when the vast expansion in the United States shipbuilding is added to the credit side, the position is very definitely improved. It is in my opinion desirable to leave the enemy guessing at our real figures, to let him be the victim of his own lies, and to deprive him of every means of checking the exaggerations of his U-boat captains or of associating particular losses with particular forms and occasions of attack. I therefore do not propose to give any exact figures. This, however, I may say, that in the last six months, which included some of those heavy operations which I have mentioned, the Anglo-American and the important Canadian new building, all taken together, exceeded all the losses of the United Nations by over 1,250,000 gross tons. That is to say, our joint fleet is 1,250,000 tons bigger to-day than it was six months ago. That is not much, but it is something, and something very important.

But that statement by no means does justice to the achievement of the two countries, because the great American flow of shipbuilding is leaping up month by month, and the losses in the last two months are the lowest sustained for over a year. The number of U-boats is increasing, but so are their losses, and so also are the means of attacking them and protecting the convoys. It is, however, a horrible thing to plan ahead in cold blood on the basis of losing hundreds of thousands of tons a month, even if you can show a favourable balance at the end of a year. The waste of precious cargoes, the destruction of so many noble ships, the loss of heroic crews, all combine to constitute a repulsive and sombre panorama. We cannot possibly rest content with losses on this scale, even though they are outweighed by new building, even if they are not for that reason mortal in their character. Nothing is more clearly proved than that well-escorted convoys, especially when protected by long-distance aircraft, beat the U-boats. I do not say that they are a complete protection, but they are an enormous mitigation of losses. We have had hardly any losses at sea in our heavily escorted troop convoys. Out of about 3,000,000 soldiers who have been moved under the protection of the British Navy about the world, to and fro across the seas and 1471oceans, about 1,348 have been killed or drowned, including missing. It is about 2,200 to one against your being drowned if you travel in British troop convoys in this present war.

Even if the U-boats increase in number, there is no doubt that a superior proportionate increase in the naval and air escort will be a remedy. A ship not sunk is better than a new ship built. Therefore, in order to reduce the waste in the merchant shipping convoys, we have decided, by successive steps during the last six months, to throw the emphasis rather more on the production of escort vessels, even though it means some impingement on new building. Very great numbers of escort vessels are being constructed in Great Britain and the United States, equipped with every new device of anti-U-boat warfare in all its latest refinements. We pool our resources with the United States, and we have been promised, and the promise is being executed in due course, our fair allocation of American-built escort vessels.

There is another point. Everyone sees how much better it is to have fast ships than slow. This is also true of racehorses, as the Noble Lady was well aware in her unregenerate days. However, speed is a costly luxury. The most careful calculations are made and are repeatedly revised as between having fewer fast ships or more slow ones. The choice, however, is not entirely a free one. The moment you come into the sphere of fast ships, engine competition enters a new phase. It starts with the escort vessels but in other directions and also in the materials for the higher speed engines there come other complicated factors. I should strongly advise the House to have confidence in the extremely capable people who, with full knowledge of all the facts, are working day in day out on all these aspects and who would be delighted to fit an additional line of fast ships, even at some loss in aggregate tonnage, provided they could be sure that the engines would not clash with other even more urgent needs. In all these matters I should like the House to realise that we do have to aim at an optimum rather than at a maximum, which is not quite the same thing.

On the offensive side the rate of killing U-boats has steadily improved. From 1472January to October, 1942, inclusive, a period of 10 months, the rate of sinkings, certain and probable, was the best we have seen so far in this war, but from November to the present day, a period of three months, that rate has improved more than half as much again.

At the same time, the destructive power of the U-boat has undergone a steady diminution since the beginning of the war. In the first year, each operational U-boat that was at work accounted for an average of 19 ships; in the second year, for an average of 12, and in the third year for an average of 7½. These figures, I think, are, in themselves, a tribute to the Admiralty and to all others concerned.

It is quite true that at the present time, as I said in answer to an inquiry by my hon. Friend the Member for Seaham (Mr. Shinwell) the other day, we are making inroads upon the reserves of food and raw materials which we prudently built up in the earlier years of the war. We are doing this for the sake of the military operations in Africa and Asia and in the Far Pacific. We are doing it for the sake of the Russian convoys, and for the sake of giving aid and supplies to India and to Persia and other Middle Eastern countries. We are doing this on the faith of President Roosevelt's promise to me of large allocations of shipping coming to us, as the floods of American new building come upon the seas. Risks have to be run, but I can assure the House that these needs are not left to chance and to sudden and belated panic spurts. Provided that the present intense efforts are kept up here and in the United States, and that anti-U-boat warfare continues to hold first place in our thoughts and energies, I take the responsibility of assuring the House—and I have not misled them so far—that we shall be definitely better off, so far as shipping is concerned, at the end of 1943 than we are now, and while it is imprudent to try to peer so far ahead, all the tendencies show that unless something entirely new and unexpected happens in this well-explored field, we shall be still better off at the end of 1944, assuming that the war continues until then. It may be disappointing to Hitler to learn that we are upon a rising tide of tonnage and not upon an ebb or shrinkage, but it is the governing fact of the situation. Therefore, let everyone engaged in this sphere of operations bend to 1473his or her task and try to get the losses down and try to get the launchings up; and let them do this, not under the spur of fear or gloom, or patriotic jitters, but in the sure and exhilarating consciousness of a gigantic task which is forging steadily forward to successful accomplishment. The more the sinkings are reduced, the more vehement our Anglo-American war effort can be. The margin, improving and widening, means the power to strike heavier blows against the enemy. The greater the weight we can take off Russia, the quicker the war will come to an end. All depends upon the margin of new building forging ahead over the losses, which, although improving, are still, as I have said, a lamentable and grievous fact to meditate upon. Meanwhile, let the enemy if he will, nurse his Vain hopes of averting his doom by U-boat warfare. He cannot avert it, but he may delay it, and it is for us to shorten that delay by every conceivable effort we can make.

It was only after full, cold, sober and mature consideration of all these facts, on which our lives and liberties certainly depend, that the President, with my full concurrence as agent of the War Cabinet, decided that the note of the Casablanca Conference should be the unconditional surrender of all our foes. But our inflexible insistence upon unconditional surrender does not mean that we shall stain our victorious arms by wrong and cruel treatment of whole populations. But justice must be done upon the wicked and the guilty, and, within her proper bounds, justice must be stern and implacable. No vestige of the Nazi or Fascist power, no vestige of the Japanese war-plotting machine, will be left by us when the work is done, as done it certainly will be.

That disposes, I think, of two important features of the Casablanca Conference, the recognition that the defeat of the U-boat and the improvement of the margin of shipbuilding resources is the prelude to all effective aggressive operations, and, secondly, after considering all those facts, the statement which the President wished to be made on the subject of unconditional surrender. But the Casablanca Conference was, in my not inconsiderable experience of these functions, in various ways unparalleled. There never has been, in all the inter-Allied Conferences I have known, anything like the prolonged professional 1474examination of the whole scene of the world war in its military, its armament production and its economic aspects. This examination was conducted through the whole day, and far into the night, by the military, naval and air experts, sitting by themselves, without political influence thrust upon them, although general guidance was given by the President and by myself. But they were sitting by themselves talking all these matters out as experts and professionals. Some of these conferences in the last war, I remember, lasted a day or two days, but this was 11 days. If I speak of decisions taken, I can assure the House that they are based upon professional opinion and advice in their integrity. There never has been anything like that.

When you have half a dozen theatres of war open in various parts of the globe there are bound to be divergences of view when the problem is studied from different angles. There were many divergences of view before we came together, and it was for that reason, that I had been pressing for so many months for the meeting of as many of the great Allies as possible. These divergences are of emphasis and priority rather than of principle. They can only be removed by the prolonged association of consenting and instructed minds. Human judgment is fallible. We may have taken decisions which will prove to be less good than we hoped, but at any rate anything is better than not having a plan. You must be able to answer every question in these matters of war and have a good, clear, plain answer to the question: what is your plan, what is your policy? But it does not follow that we always give the answer. It would be foolish.

We have now a complete plan of action, which comprises the apportionment of forces as well as their direction, and the weight of the particular movements which have been decided upon; and this plan we are going to carry out according to our ability during the next nine months, before the end of which we shall certainly make efforts to meet again. I feel justified in asking the House to believe that their business is being conducted according to a definite design and, although there will surely be disappointments and failures—many disappointments and serious failures and frustrations—there is no question of drifting or indecision, 1475or being unable to form a scheme or waiting for something to turn up. For good or for ill, we know exactly what it is that we wish to do. We have the united and agreed advice of our experts behind it, and there is nothing now to be done but to work these plans out in their detail and put them into execution one after the other.

I believe it was Bismarck—I have not been able to verify it, but I expect I shall be able to find out now—who said in the closing years of his life that the dominating fact in the modern world was that the people of Britain and of the United States both spoke the same language. If so, it was certainly a much more sensible remark than some of those that we have heard from those who now fill high positions in Germany. Certainly the British and American experts and their political chiefs gain an enormous advantage by the fact that they can interchange their thoughts so easily and freely and so frankly by a common medium of speech.

This, however, did not in any way diminish our great regret that Premier Stalin and some of his distinguished generals could not be with us. The President, in spite of the physical disability which he has so heroically surmounted, was willing to go as far East as Khartoum in the hope that we could have a tripartite meeting. Premier Stalin is, however, the supreme director of the whole vast Russian offensive, which was already then in full swing and which is still rolling remorselessly and triumphantly forward. He could not leave his post, as he told us, even for a single day. But I can assure the House that, although he was absent, our duty to aid to the utmost in our power the magnificent, tremendous effort of Russia and to try to draw the enemy and the enemy's air force from the Russian front was accepted as the first of our objectives once the needs of the anti-U-boat warfare were met in such a way as to enable us to act aggressively.

We have made no secret of the fact that British and American strategists and leaders are unanimous in adhering to their decision of a year ago, namely, that the defeat of Hitler and the breaking of the German power must have priority over the decisive phase of the war against Japan. I have already some two months ago indicated that the defeat of the enemy 1476in Europe may be achieved before victory is won over Japan, and I made it clear that in that event all the forces of the British Empire, land, sea and air, will be moved to the Far Eastern theatre with the greatest possible speed, and that Great Britain will continue the war by the side of the United States with the utmost vigour until unconditional surrender has been enforced upon Japan. With the authority of the War Cabinet, I renewed this declaration in our Conference at Casablanca. I offered to make it in any form which might be desired, even embodying it in a special Treaty if that were thought advantageous. The President, however, stated that the word of Great Britain was quite enough for him. We have already, of course, bound ourselves, along with all the rest of the United Nations, to go on together to the end, however long it may take or however grievous the cost may be. I therefore think it only necessary to mention the matter to the House in order to give them the opportunity of registering their assent to that obvious and very necessary declaration. [HON. MEMBERS: "Hear, hear."]

We may now congratulate our American Allies upon their decisive victory at Guadalcanal, upon the taking of which the Japanese had expanded a serious part of their limited strength and largely irreplaceable equipment. We must also express our admiration for the hard-won successes of the Australian and American Forces, who, under their brilliant commander General MacArthur, have taken Buna in New Guinea and slaughtered the last of its defenders. The ingenious use of aircraft to solve the intricate tactical problems, by the transport of reinforcements, supplies and munitions, including field guns, is a prominent feature of MacArthur's generalship and should be carefully studied in detail by all concerned in the technical conduct of the war. In the meantime, while Hitler is being destroyed in Europe, every endeavour will be made to keep Japan thoroughly occupied and force her to exhaust and expend her material strength against the far superior Allied and, above all, American resources. This war in the Pacific Ocean, although fought by both sides with comparatively small forces at the end of enormous distances, has already engaged a great part of the American resources employed overseas as well as those of Australia and New Zealand. 1477The effort to hold the dumbbell at arms length is so exhausting and costly to both sides that it would be a great mistake to try to judge the effort by the actual numbers that come into contact at particular points. It is a tremendous effort to fight at four, five and six thousand miles across the ocean under these conditions. It is the kind of effort which is most injurious to Japan, whose resources are incomparably weaker in material than those of which we dispose.

For the time being, in the war against Japan the British effort is confined to the Indian theatre. Our Asiatic war effort is confined to operations to clear Burma, to open the Burma road and to give what aid can be given to the Chinese. That is the task which we have before us. We have been in close correspondence with Generalissimo Chiang Kai-shek, whom of course we should have been delighted to see at our Conference had it been possible for him to come. General Arnold, head of the United States Air Force, and Field-Marshal Dill are at present in Chungking concerting what we have in mind with the Chinese Generalissimo. We have already received from him an expression of his satisfaction about the strong additional help that will be provided for China at this stage in her long-drawn, undaunted struggle. The Generalissimo also concurs in the plans for future action in the Far East which we have submitted to him as the result of our deliberations. A communiqué about this Conference, received only a few minutes ago, declares the complete accord between the three Powers in their plans for the co-ordination of their Forces and in their determination in all their operations against Japan to ensure continued efforts and mutual assistance. Discussions between General MacArthur and Field-Marshal Wavell will follow in due course.

So much for the Casablanca decisions and their repercussions as far as they can be made public. I must, however, add this. When I look at all that Russia is doing and the vast achievements of the Soviet Armies, I should feel myself below the level of events if I were not sure in my heart and conscience that everything in human power is being done and will be done to bring British and American Forces into action against the enemy with the utmost speed and energy and on the largest scale. This the 1478President and I have urgently and specifically enjoined upon our military advisers and experts. In approving their schemes and allocations of forces, we have asked for more weight to be put into the attacks and more speed into their dates. Intense efforts are now being made on both sides of the Atlantic for this purpose.

From the Conference at Casablanca, with the full assent of the President, I flew to Cairo and thence to Turkey. I descended upon a Turkish airfield at Adana, already well stocked with British Hurricane fighters manned by Turkish airmen, and out of the snow-capped Taurus Mountains there crawled like an enamel caterpillar the Presidential train, bearing on board the head of the Turkish Republic, the Prime Minister, the Foreign Secretary, Marshal Chakmak, and the Party Leader—in fact, the High Executive of Turkey. I have already uttered a caution against reading anything into the communiqué which has already been published on this Conference, more than the communiqué conveys. It is no part of of our policy to get Turkey into trouble. On the contrary, a disaster to Turkey would be a disaster to Britain and to all the United Nations. Hitherto, Turkey has maintained a solid barrier against aggression from any quarter and by so doing, even in the darkest days, has rendered us invaluable service in preventing the spreading of the war through Turkey into Persia and Iraq, and in preventing the menace to the oilfields of Abadan which are of vital consequence to the whole Eastern war.

It is an important interest of the United Nations and especially of Great Britain that Turkey should become well armed in all the apparatus of modem war and that her brave infantry shall not lack the essential, weapons which play a decisive part on the battlefields of to-day. These weapons we and the United States are now for the first time in a position to supply to the full capacity of the Turkish railways and other communications. We can give them as much as they are able to take, and we can give these weapons as fast as and faster than the Turkish troops can be trained to use them. At our Conference I made no request of Turkey except to get this rearmament business thoroughly well organised, and a British and Turkish Joint Military Mission is now sitting in Ankara 1479in order to press forward to the utmost the development of the general defensive strength of Turkey, the improvement of the communications and, by the reception of the new weapons, to bring its army up to the highest pitch of efficiency. I am sure it would not be possible to pry more closely into this part of our affairs. Turkey is our Ally. Turkey is our friend. We wish her well, and we wish to see her territory, rights and interests effectively preserved. We wish to see, in particular, warm and friendly relations established between Turkey and her great Russian Ally to the North-West, to whom we are bound by the 20-years Anglo-Russian Treaty. Whereas a little while ago it looked to superficial observers as if Turkey might be isolated by a German advance through the Caucasus on one side and by a German-Italian attack on Egypt on the other, a transformation scene has occurred. Turkey now finds on each side of her victorious Powers who are her friends. It will be interesting to see how the story unfolds chapter by chapter, and it would be very foolish to try to skip on too fast.

After discharging our business in Turkey I had to come home, and I naturally stopped at the interesting places on the way where I had people to see and things to do. I think that the story I have to tell follows very naturally stage by stage along my homeward journey. I have already mentioned to the House, at Question time the other day, my very pleasant stay during my return journey at Cyprus, which has played its part so well and is enjoying a period of war-time prosperity. But how different was the situation in Cairo from what I found it in the early days of last year. Then the Desert Army was bewildered and dispirited, feeling themselves better men than the enemy and wondering why they had had to retreat with heavy losses for so many hundreds of miles while Rommel pursued them on their own captured transport and with their own food, petrol and ammunition. Then the enemy was 60 miles from Alexandria, and I had to give orders for every preparation to be made to defend the line of the Nile, exactly as if we were fighting in Kent. I had also to make a number of drastic changes in the High Command. Those changes have been vindicated 1480by the results. In a week an electrifying effect was produced upon the Desert Army by General Montgomery and by orders which he issued, and upon the whole situation by the appointment of General Alexander as Commander-in-Chief, Middle East. At the same time great reinforcements, despatched many weeks and even months before round the Cape of Good Hope, were steaming up the Red Sea and pouring into the Nile Valley. The American Sherman tank, which the President gave me in Washington on that dark morning when we learned of the fall of Tobruk and the surrender of its 25,000 defenders, came into the hands of troops thirsting to have good weapons to use against the enemy. As a consequence of those events and many others which could be cited, the enemy has been decisively defeated, first in the second Battle of El Alamein, where Rommells final thrust was repulsed, and, secondly, in the great battle for El Alamein, which will do down in history as the Battle of Egypt, for by it Egypt was delivered. On arriving in Cairo I found that now the enemy, who had boasted that he would enter Cairo and Alexandria and cross and cut the Suez Canal, and had even struck a medal to commemorate the event, of which I was handed a specimen, had been rolled back 1,500 miles, and it is probably 1,600 miles by now. What an amazing feat this has been. The battle is one story, the pursuit is another. So rapid an advance by such powerful, competent, heavily equipped forces over distances so enormous is, as far as I am aware, without parallel in modern war; and the Ancients had not the advantages of locomotion which we possess, so they are out of it anyway.

Everywhere in Egypt there is a feeling that Britain has kept her word, that we have been a faithful and unfailing Ally, that we have preserved the Nile Valley and all its cities, villages and fertile lands from the horrors of invasion. It was always said that Egypt could never be invaded across the Western Desert, and certainly that historical fact has now been established upon modern and far stronger foundations.

From Cairo I proceeded on my magic carpet to Tripoli, which 10 days before was in the possession of the enemy. Here I found General Montgomery. I must confess quite frankly that I had not 1481realised how magnificent a city and harbour Tripoli has been made. It is the first Italian city to be delivered by British arms from the grip of the Huns. Naturally there was lively enthusiasm among the Italian population, and I can hardly do justice to the effusiveness of the demonstrations of which I was the fortunate object. I had the honour as your servant to review two of our forward divisions. The 51st Highland Division is the successor of that brave division that was overwhelmed on the coast of France in the tragedies of 1940. It has already more than equalised the account which Scotland had open in this matter. In the afternoon I saw a mass of 10,000 New Zealanders, who, with a comparatively small portion of their vast equipment of cannon, tanks and technical vehicles, took one-and-a-half hours to march past. On that day I saw at least 40,000 troops, and as representing His Majesty's Government I had the honour to receive their salutes and greetings. Meanwhile, of course, the front had rolled nearly another 100 miles farther to the West, and the beaten enemy were being pursued back to the new positions in Tunisia on which it is said they intend to make a stand. I do not wish to encourage the House or the country to look for any very speedy new results. They may come, or they may not come. The enemy have carried out very heavy demolitions and blockings in Tripoli harbour. Therefore, supply from the sea is greatly hampered, and I cannot tell what time will be required to clear the port and begin the building-up of a new base for supplies. It is not the slightest use being impatient with these processes. Meanwhile General Montgomery's Army is feeding itself from its base at Cairo, 1,500 miles away, through Tobruk, 1,000 miles away, and Benghazi, 750 miles away, by a prodigious mass of mechanical transport, all organised in a manner truly wonderful.

Presently we may be able to move forward again, but meanwhile the enemy may have time to consolidate his position and to bring in further reinforcements and further equipment. Let us just see how things go. But I should like to say this; I have never in my life, which from my youth up has been connected with military matters, seen troops who march with the style and air of those of the Desert Army. Talk about spit and polish. The 1482Highland and New Zealand Divisions paraded after their immense ordeal in the desert as if they had come out of Wellington Barracks. There was an air on the face of every private of that just and sober pride which comes from dear-bought victory and triumph after toil. I saw the same sort of marching smartness, and the same punctilio of saluting and discipline, in the Russian guard of honour which received me in Moscow six months ago. The fighting men of democracy feel that they are coming into their own.

Let me also pay my tribute to this vehement and formidable General Montgomery, a Cromwellian figure, austere, severe, accomplished, tireless, his life given to the study of war, who has attracted to himself in an extraordinary measure the confidence and the devotion of his Army. Let me also pay, in the name of the House, my tribute to General Alexander, on whom the over-riding responsibility lay. I read to the House on 11th November the directive which in those critical days I gave to General Alexander. I may perhaps refresh the memory of hon. Members by reading it again: 1. Your prime and main duty will be to take or destroy at the earliest opportunity the German-Italian army commanded by Field-Marshal Rommel, together with all its supplies and establishments in Egypt and Libya. 2. You will discharge, or cause to be discharged, such other duties as pertain to your Command without prejudice to the task described in paragraph 1, which must be considered paramount in His Majesty's interests. I have now received, when, as it chanced, I visited the Army again, the following official communication from General Alexander, in which General Montgomery took great pleasure, and to which it will be necessary for us to send a reply: Sir, The Orders you gave me on August 15, 1942, have been fulfilled. His Majesty's enemies, together with their impedimenta, have been completely eliminated from Egypt, Cyrenaica, Libya and Tripolitania. I now await your further instructions. Well, obviously, we shall have to think of something else, and, indeed, this was one of the more detailed matters which we discussed in the Conference at Casablanca. I did not publish the original instructions to General Alexander until some months afterwards, when the Battle of Egypt had been won, and the House will naturally grant me a similar delay before I make public the reply to him which is now required.

1483I should, however, inform the House and the country of the various changes in the High Command which the marked improvement in our affairs and the movements of the Armies have rendered suitable and necessary. This brings me to the general situation in French North-West Africa, on which I have a very few general remarks to make.

The descent upon North Africa by the British and American Forces will, I believe, be judged in the words which Premier Stalin used to me when I told him about it in August last. He said that it was "militarily correct." It certainly has altered the strategic axis of the war. By this very large-scale manœuvre, thought by many experts to be most hazardous before it was undertaken, we recovered the initiative in the West, and we recovered it at comparatively small cost of life and with less loss in shipping than we gained by what fell into our hands. Nearly half a million men have been landed successfully and safely in North-West Africa, and those fair and beautiful regions are now under the control of the United States. We agreed with the President many months ago that this should be an American enterprise, and I have gladly accepted, with the approval of the War Cabinet, the position of lieutenant in this sphere. The Americans attach the greatest importance to unity of command between Allies and to control over all these Services being in the hands of one supreme commander. We willingly and freely accepted this position, and we shall act loyally and faithfully up to it on all occasions and in every respect. Some people are busily concerned about the past records of various French functionaries whom the Americans have deemed it expedient to employ. For my part, I must confess that I am more interested in the safety of the Armies and in the success of the operations which will soon be again advancing to an important climax. I shall therefore not take up the time of the House with the tales which can be told of how these various Frenchmen acted in the forlorn and hideous situation in which they found themselves when their country collapsed. What matters to General Eisenhower and to our troops, who, in great numbers, are serving under him, and what matters throughout this vast 1484area of population of well over 16,000,000, 90 per cent. of whom are Moslems, is, first and foremost, a tranquil countryside, and, secondly, secure and unimpeded communications to the battle-front, which is now steadily developing on what I have called the Tunisian tip.

I have not seen this battle front, I am sorry to say, because it is 400 miles distant by road from Algiers, where I spent last Friday and Saturday with General Eisenhower and Admiral Cunningham, and also with our Minister-Resident, the right hon. Member for Stockton-on-Tees (Mr. Harold Macmillan), who is doing admirable work and becoming a real solver of problems—friends with everyone—and taking, with Mr. Murphy's co-operation, an increasingly heavy load off the shoulders of the Commander-in-Chief in regard to matters with which a military commander should not to be burdened. Although I did not have a chance to see this front—because one does get a number of communications from home from time to time—I can tell the House that conditions are absolutely different from those which the Desert Army has triumphantly surmounted. The Desert Army is the product of three years of trial and error and of continued perfecting of transport, communications, supplies and signals, and the rapid moving forward of airfields and the like. The Armies now fighting in Tunisia are still in a very early stage of building up their communications. The enemy opposite to them, although largely an improvised army, have something like the advantage which we had over Rommel in front of Cairo, I mean the advantage of lying 30 or 40 miles in front of your bases; while we have to go over very long, slender, tightly stretched and heavily strained approaches, in order to get at them. Very nearly did General Anderson, under General Eisenhower's orders, clear the whole province at a run. Very little more, and we might have achieved everything. It was absolutely right to try, but it failed. The Germans effected their entry, and made good their bridge-heads. We had to fall back to gather strength and to gather our resources for heavy battle. I cannot pretend not to be disappointed that the full result was not achieved at the first bound, Still, our main object is to fight the Germans, and one cannot be blind to the fact that we have made them fight us 1485in a situation extremely costly to them and by no means disadvantageous to us. Although the enemy's lines of supply on land are short, they are under constant attack by sea. Before they reach the battlefield they lose one-quarter, or one-third even, of everything they bring across the sea. Our power of reinforcement is far greater and more secure than theirs. The portentous apparition of the Desert Army, driving Rommel before them, is a new, most potent and possibly even decisive factor. Air fighting is developing on an ever-increasing scale, and this is, of course, greatly to our advantage, because it would pay us to lose two machines to one in order to wear down the German air force and draw it away from the Russian front. However, instead of losing two planes to one, the actual results are very nearly the other way round. Therefore, it seems to me that the House need not be unduly depressed because the fighting in North Africa is going to assume a very much larger scale and last a longer time than was originally anticipated and hoped. It is, indeed, quite remarkable that the Germans should have shown themselves ready to run the risk and pay the price required of them by their struggle to hold the Tunisian tip. While I always hesitate to say anything which might afterwards look like over-confidence, I cannot resist the remark that one seems to discern in this policy the touch of the master hand, the same master hand that planned the attack on Stalingrad and that has brought upon the German armies the greatest disaster they have ever suffered in all their military history. However, I am making no predictions and no promises. Very serious battles will have to be fought. Including Rommel's army, there must be nearly a quarter of a million of the enemy in the Tunisian tip, and we must not in any way under-rate the hazards we have to dare or the burdens we have to carry. It is always folly to forecast the results of great trials of strength in war before they take place. I will say no more than this: All the disadvantages are not on one side, and certainly they are not all on our side. I think that conforms to the standards of the anti-complacency opinion in this country.

French North-West Africa is, as I have said, a United States operation, under American command. We have agreed 1486that the boundary between our respective spheres shall be the existing frontier between Tripolitania and Tunisia, but the Desert Army is now crossing that frontier and driving forward on its quest, which is Rommel. Its movements must, therefore, be combined with those of the First Army and with the various powerful forces coming from the West. For some weeks past, the commanders have been in close touch with one another; these contacts must now be formalised. As the Desert Army passes into the American sphere it will naturally come under the orders of General Eisenhower. I have great confidence in General Eisenhower. I regard him as one of the finest men I have ever met. It was arranged at Casablanca that when this transfer of the Desert Army took place, General Alexander should become Deputy Commander-in-Chief under General Eisenhower. At the same time, Air Chief Marshal Tedder becomes Air Commander-in-Chief Mediterranean, responsible to General Eisenhower for all the air operations in his theatre. He will control also all the Air Forces throughout the whole of the Middle East. This is absolutely necessary, because our Air Forces of Egypt, Cyrenaica and Libya, and also our powerful Air Forces operating from Malta, are actually attacking the same targets, both by bomber and fighter aircraft, as the United States and British Air Forces now working from Algeria and Tunisia are attacking. You must have one control over all this, and that control must be exercised under the supreme command of one man—and who better, I ask, than the trusty and experienced Air Chief Marshal Tedder, for whom General Eisenhower so earnestly asked? Under him, Air Vice-Marshal Coningham, hitherto working with the Eighth Army, whose services have been so much admired, will concert the air operations in support of the British First and Eighth Armies and other troops on the Tunisian battlefield. At the same time, Admiral of the Fleet Sir Andrew Cunningham, who already commands all the British and American naval forces in this theatre, will extend his command Eastward so as to comprise effectively all the cognate operations inside the Mediterranean and the present Commander-in-Chief in the Mediterranean will become, with his headquarters in Egypt, Commander-in-Chief of the Levant, dealing also with the Red 1487Sea and all approaches from that quarter. There is no need for me to announce exactly where the line of demarcation between those commands is drawn, but everything is arranged with precision. The vacancy in the Command of the Middle East created by General Alexander's appointment as Deputy Commander-in-Chief to General Eisenhower, will be filled by General Sir Henry Maitland Wilson, now commanding in Persia and Iraq, where the Tenth Army, now become a very powerful force, is stationed. It is proposed to keep Persia and Iraq as a separate command for the present, and the new commander will shortly be appointed.

Meanwhile, General Eisenhower has already obtained the consent of General Giraud, who commands the French Army fighting on the Tunisian front, an army which is being raised by American equipment to a very powerful force and which will play its part later on in liberating the French Motherland, to this Army being placed all under the command of General Anderson, together with the strong United States Forces, which have been moved forward into Tunisia. Thus we have a hierarchy established by international arrangement completely in accord with modern ideas of unity of command between various Allies and of the closest concert of the three Services.

I make an appeal to the House, the Press and the country, that they will, I trust, be very careful not to criticise this arrangement. If they do so, I trust they will not do it on personal lines, or run one general against another, to the detriment of the smooth and harmonious relations which now prevail among this band of brothers who have got their teeth into the job. In General Eisenhower, as in General Alexander, you have two men remarkable for selflessness of character and disdain of purely personal advancement. Let them alone; give them a chance; and it is quite possible that one of these fine days the bells will have to be rung again. If not, we will address ourselves to the problem, in all loyalty and comradeship, and in the light of circumstances. [Interruption.] I have really tried to tell the House everything that I am sure the enemy knows and to tell them nothing that the enemy ought to know: [HON. MEMBERS: "Ought not to know."] There was a joke in that Still, I have been able to say something. At any rate, I appeal to all patriotic men on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean to stamp their feet on mischief-makers and sowers of tares wherever they may be found, and let the great machines roll into battle under the best possible conditions for our success. That is all I have to say at the present time.

I am most grateful for the extreme kindness with which I am treated by the House. I accept, in the fullest degree, the responsibility of Minister of Defence and as the agent of the War Cabinet, for the plans we have devised. His Majesty's Government ask no favours for themselves. We desire only to be judged by results. We await the unfolding of events with sober confidence, and we are sure that Parliament and the British nation will display in these hopeful days, which may nevertheless be clouded o'er, the same qualities of steadfastness as they did in that awful period when the life of Britain and of our Empire hung by a thread.

The British acceptance of an American commander in this role, particularly one that had not seen combat in World War One, was not only gracious, but realistic and shrewd.  British forces in the ETO still outnumbered the American ones, but that day was obviously going to end soon.

On other matters, if you wish to take a charitable view, on this day in 1943 the USSR began its nuclear weapons research program.

If you do not, and you probably ought not to, Soviet "research" was ongoing through its penetration of the U.S., and the British, government, which was extensive and had been long ongoing.  While his exact relationship to it remains unclear, for example, Robert Oppenheimer is known to have shown up in Soviet intelligence reports in a way that at least raises questions and was listed in the Venona Papers, as was his brother Frank.  The fact that the USSR, which was not anywhere as technologically advanced as the US, was able to develop an atomic weapons as quickly as it did speaks volumes about the success of its espionage efforts.

Indeed, this entire story is one that is probably still not well-developed.  When concerns really started to develop after World War Two following the Berlin Blockade and the Soviet nuclear detonation of 1949, the Truman administration made a dedicated effort to bury any suggestion that the recent Democratic Administration has been penetrated by Soviet agents, which in turn gave rise to hearings that are reminiscent of some of the type we've seen recently.  This culminated in the McCarthy hearings, which have been inaccurately reported, a fact aided by McCarthy's bullish personality in them.  By and large, the names that McCarthy named have turned out in fact to have had Soviet connections, something not really appreciated until after the names listed in the Venona Papers were released.

Friday, February 5, 1943. Depriving the vote. Introduction of the M1943 Combat Boot.

Today In Wyoming's History: February 5: 1943 1943  The Legislature passes a bill denying American citizens interned at Heart Mountain Relocation Camp the right to vote.

Not exactly a proud, or even legal, moment for the state.

Sarah Sundin notes something grim on her blog:

Today in World War II History—February 5, 1943: 80 Years Ago—Feb. 5, 1943: Nazis begin liquidating Bialystok ghetto; 1,000 Jews are killed and 10,000 are sent to Treblinka extermination camp.

Events such as these accelerated and climbed in scale following the German defeat at Stalingrad.  The focus of the war began to turn less on Eastern European colonization and more on murder.

Mel Brooks, oddly enough, made Bialystok a name that's at least recognizable to fans of his comedy, as one of the two principal characters in The Producers bears that as his last name.  I don't know if that was intentional or not, but it's interesting.

The Polish city remains a significant one in Poland today.  Prior to World War Two, Poland had the largest Jewish population in Europe.  Germany's was actually relatively small.  3.3 million Jews lived in Poland, not all of whom claimed a Jewish identity, although many did.  By the war's end, approximately 380,000 Polish Jews remained.  Many would subsequently emigrate out of the country.  Polish Jews would undergo a renewed wave of repression following World War Two, following the same in the Soviet Union, during which Jewish Poles were accused of being in league with the United States and Israel against Communism, and the state officially worked to eliminate the unique distinction of Jews as particular victims of German atrocities.

Mussolini fired his Foreign Minister, his son-in-law Count Galeazzo Ciano, along with most of his cabinet.  Il Duce took over the position of Foreign Minister, along with being Interior Minister, War Minister, and Air Minister.

Lt. Gen. Frank M. Andrews.

Lt. Gen. Frank M. Andrews was appointed commander of U.S. Forces in Europe, relieving Gen. Dwight Eisenhower of that post in a little noted change of command.  Eisenhower was, at that time, engaged in the combat command in North Africa.

Andrews was the grandson of a Confederate cavalryman and was a cavalryman himself, having been commissioned in that branch in 1906.  His career benefited from him having married well.  He switched to Army aviation during World War One, although he returned briefly to the cavalry after the war.

Lt. Col Georges Doriot, a later pioneer in venture capitalism, an immigrant from France, and a wartime volunteer, convinced Gen. George Marshall to adopt what would become the M1943 combat boot, which would replace the Army Service Shoe and leggings, for the most part, by the end of the war.  The M1943 would also officially replace the Army paratrooper boot as well.  In reality, the Service Shoe and the jump boot were never fully replaced by the M1943, and paratroopers resisted adopting the M1943.

How the U.S. Army imagined its troops to look in an official painting illustrating the Army in Europe, late war.  The tankers in this painting are probably wearing the overalls that were issued to tankers, but for coats they are wearing the Winter Combat Jacket.  It wasn't a tanker only item, but it became heavily associated with them.  Originally they were part of the overall winter uniform and were popular with soldiers.  You can find photographic evidence of officers having some altered by tailors to include epaulets for rank insignia, which they otherwise lacked.  The Thompson submachine gun is correct for an armored crewman.  The walking Colonel is an officer of the 5th Infantry Division and is shown wearing the M1943 Field Jacket, and he is wearing the M1943 Combat Boots.  These solders are wearing the M1943 cotton trousers, which were issued, but often solders in the winter continued to wear their wool service pattern trousers, and indeed did so even in warmer months.   Both walking soldiers are shown wearing helmet covers, which were rarely worn in Europe as it caused confusion with German snipers, who also did.  Helmet netting was much more common.

The reason for the adoption was that Service Shoes were not lasting long, with a reported thirteen days of durability, although that is likely explained by materials rather than the design itself, which had an extremely long run and which survives as a very tough civilian pattern to this day.  The M1943 was in fact based on the Service Shoe, but incorporating cuff buckles which had been used on prior civilian hunting and outdoors boots.  It was also made of rough out leather, as "Pershing Boots" had been during World War One, which was known to be highly durable, but which was resistant to polishing.

One solder comforting another during the Korean War.  All of these men wear the M1943 Combat Boot. They're also wearing Field Pants, modeled on the trousers worn by U.S. paratroopers in World War Two and which have continued to be the pattern to the present day.

The M1943 was seen as a huge improvement by soldiers when they came out, save for paratroopers, but it was replaced in 1948, theoretically, by a boot based on the theoretically replaced jump boot.  In reality, however, M1943s would be in use well into the late 1950s.  They also saw use in other armies, which adopted the pattern, and which used them for many years.

U.S. troosp in Italy during World War Two.  The sniper in the center of the photo is wearing a helmet cover, rare for U.S. troops during the war, and he's wearing M1942 Jump Boots, which were hugely popular with U.S. servicemen during the war, and for decades thereafter.  Made on the Munson Last, they were very comfortable boots.  His rifle is a M1903A5.  To the right, as we view the photo, an infantryman is equipped also with the bolt action M1903, as are two of the men behind him.  The number of M1903s in this photo is not uncommon, but there are too many to be explained by their being scout snipers or grenadiers, both of which used the M1903 throughout the war.

The M1943 boots came in as part of the M1943 Combat Uniform, which featured not only new boots, but a new field jacket, the M1943, which formed the distinctive appearance of the American soldier for decades thereafter.  The Field Jacket was a huge improvement over prior patterns, and it did successfully replace the various competing variants, although examples of the earlier patterns did endure throughout the war.  Through various updates and modifications, the basic M1943 style of uniform remained in general service up until the adoption of the Battle Dress Uniform in the early 1980s, which was itself ironically patterned on the earlier M1941 Paratroopers Uniform which had inspired Vietnam era jungle fatigues.  The successor of the M1943 Field Jacket would remain in use until the very recently, and is still an acceptable private purchase item.

U.S. Army officers during the Korean War wearing the pattern of uniform closely based on the M1943 uniform.  The officer on the right wears the M1951 Field Jacket, which was of a greener color than the M1943.  Both men are wearing russet M1948 Combat Boots, a pattern that had been introduced after the war and which was based on the M1942 Paratrooper Boot, but which was in fact slightly different, even though by this time the M1942 had been reintroduced.  The boots should be black, but many were russet as that had been the color they were first adopted in and soldiers were expected to die them black, something that wasn't easy to do.  Both men are wearing "patrol caps", which also came in with the M1943 uniform as the M1943 Field Cap.  The Army has retained the Patrol Cap to this day, after briefly toying with replacing it.

It might be noted that the M1943 uniform was only an Army uniform during World War Two.  The Marine Corps adopted the field jacket after the war, but only the field jacket.