Showing posts with label Israeli Hamas War. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Israeli Hamas War. Show all posts

Wednesday, December 27, 2023

A Presupposition: Office Hours: Are today’s campus protests against the war in Gaza as justified as were campus protests against the Vietnam War?

I can't read this one as the paywall subscriber thing applies to it.

Office Hours: Are today’s campus protests against the war in Gaza as justified as were campus protests against the Vietnam War? 

Here's the thing, though. The headline presupposes the Boomer Generation protests on campuses during the Vietnam War were "justified", at least in some fashion.

Perhaps they were, but it is a presupposition, not something that is necessarily automatically a fact.

Which is not to say every protest on campus today regarding the Hamas War is justified, although it isn't to state that ones which are not anti-Semitic, but based on something else (if there are any), do not have some justification.

Friday, December 1, 2023

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part XI. Our Sins coming back to haunt us edition.

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.

 Matthew, Chapter 24.



Well, Part X wasn't up for long before the next edition was necessary.

Ugh.

If any question why we died, 

Tell them, because our fathers lied.

Kipling.

And so, the byproducts of the Great War continue to visit us, specter like.  A war in Ukraine between a Slavic chauvinist empire, and one in the Middle East, sorting out the rubble of the Mandate.

So let us begin.

October 15, 2023

Hamas v. Israel.

Hamas infiltration attempts are continuing, but have dropped off on the West Bank.

Iran is warning the war could go regional, which it will not.

An Israeli ground offensive is imminent.

The US asked American citizens in Gaza (why on earth would anyone with American citizenship stay in Gaza?) to move closer to the Egyptian Rafah border crossing, which would likely suggest the U.S. has worked out some sort of deal with Egypt regarding Americans being displaced in the Gaza Strip (why on earth would anyone with American citizenship stay in Gaza?).

A bomb threat was levied against the Louvre yesterday, which is suspected to be related to this conflict in some fashion.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian attacks on Avdiivka are continuing, but Ukrainian lines are holding.  Apparently the offensive was anticipated.

October 16, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

From Twitter, and linked directly to what was put up there.  Weapons displayed by the IDF that were used in the recent Hamas raid.


The really surprising one here is the ancient submachine gun.  Apparently it is a Lanchester, which I've never even heard of.  It looks like a German MP28 as it is in fact a version of it.  They were actually produced, to my surprise, in large numbers during World War Two.

The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Cardinal Pizzaballa stated in an interview that he was willing to exchange himself as a hostage for the kidnapped children.

October 17, 2023

Hamas v Israel

Four Iranian nationals have been detained at the Del Rio crossing between the US and Mexico since October 1, with two Iranian nationals regarded as terrorist threats.

The Church of Saint Porphyrius, built in 1150 through 1160, a Greek Orthodox Church, is now housing Palestinian refugees of all religions.

2,000 U.S. troops are being readied to deploy to the region in support roles to Israel.

Churches of the West: A Day of Fasting and Prayer: Bishop Bigler of the Diocese of Cheyenne has declared this a voluntary fast day for Peace in the Middle East.

Prayer for Peace in the Holy Land

The Diocese of Cheyenne is asking Catholics in the Diocese to pray for Peace in the Holy Land, and has issued this prayer.

Pray for Peace in the Holy Land

Lord God, merciful and strong,

     who crush wars and cast down the proud,

     who extend mercy and tenderness to all,

we pray to you for the Holy Land, for the people of Israel and Palestine

     who are under the grip of unprecedented violence,

     for the victims, especially the children and their families.

Be pleased to grant healing for the wounded, the release of hostages,

     protection for the innocent, and eternal peace to the dead.

To all those affected by war, grant healing, consolation, and the grace to forgive.

Almighty God,

     guide the minds of world leaders to act with wisdom, prudence, and justice,

     and to promote the common good.

Lord of Justice, help us to commit ourselves to building a fraternal world

     so that these peoples and all those suffering similar conditions of

     conflict, instability, and violence may walk together as sisters and brothers.

Help us to be peacemakers by practicing justice, dialogue, and reconciliation.

O God of Peace, who are peace itself,

     grant that those in conflict may forget evil and so be healed.

Help those who have experienced violence to forgive their enemies,

     as Christ taught us and after his example on the cross.

We pray that the whole of humanity may be reconciled as one family,

     without violence, without absurd wars, and with a fraternal spirit,

      and live united in peace and concord.

Through our Lord Jesus Christ Your Son, who lives and reigns with you

in the unity of the Holy Spirit, God for ever and ever. Amen.

cont:

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine struck Russian airbases deep within Russian occupied Ukraine with ATACMS missiles acquired from the United States

October 18, 2023

Hamas v Israel.

President Biden is in Israel.

Democrat Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib's accused Israel of bombing a Christian's hospital in the Gaza stating "Israel just bombed the Baptist Hospital killing 500 Palestinians (doctors, children, patients) just like that," in a tweet.

Israel replied within an hour that Islamic Jihad was responsible for the strike with an errant missile.

China v Taiwan and everyone else

The U.S. has accused China of increasingly dangerous actions with its fighter aircraft.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine made small gains around Bakhmut and Russians tiny gains around Avdiivka.

The US completed deliveries of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

October 29, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukraine raided across the Dnipro near Kherson.

Iran v. United States

October 20, 2023

Hamas v. Israel, Iran v. The West

DOD assets in the Red Sea, Iraq and Syria responded to missile and drone attacks over the past two days, as U.S. service members look to deter groups from using the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to launch conflict that could engulf the region, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.

Department of Defense.

Effectively, Iran, often acting through its militias, is in a low grade war with the United States right now.

October 23, 2023

Hamas v. Israel, Iran v. The West

The weekend news shows were absolutely frighting on this topic, this weekend.  A bill is being introduced in Congress to authorize the use of force under the War Powers Act, for instance.

October 24, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has entered the Port of Arkhangelsk with a missing anchor. Finnish investigators suspect it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia.  It will take six months to repair.

cont:

Congo

The Allied Democratic Forces killed people in the city of Oicha in North Kivu province on Monday. The group has ties to the Islamic State.

October 26, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are pursuing a coordinated strategy to (1) deter Israel from trying to destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip, (2) prevent Israel from destroying Hamas if deterrence fails, and (3) deter the United States from providing military support to Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip.

ISW.

cont:

Russo Ukrainian War

The Administration reports that Russia has executed its own soldiers for refusing to carry out orders.

Hamas v. Israel

Israel killed the deputy head of Hamas’s intelligence directorate, Shadi Barud, in a strike in the Gaza today.

Iranian backed forces have targeted US sites in Israel and Iraq.

October 27, 2023

Iran v US

The US struck two Iranian backed militia sites in Syria in an air raid earlier today.

Hamas v. Israel

Israel has raided into Gaza.

October 28, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Slovakia's right wing populist government is ceasing aid to Ukraine.

Ireland has called for increased European support for Ukraine.

October 29, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

The IDF has entered Gaza.

November 1, 2023

North Korea

North Korea is closing a large number of embassies, apparently due to financial concerns.

Hamas v. Israel

From Yemen's Houthi militia:

Our armed forces launched a large batch of ballistic missiles and a large number of drones at various targets of the Israeli enemy 

The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that this operation is the third operation in support of our oppressed brothers in Palestine and confirm that we will continue to carry out more qualitative strikes with missiles and drones until the Israeli aggression stops.

Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated, in response to reports that millions of Palestinians could cross into Egypt, that Egypt was  “prepared to sacrifice millions of lives to ensure that no one encroaches upon our territory”.

November 2, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

President Biden has called for a pause in the war to aid in removing refugees.  It's unlikely to occur.

Nigeria

Thirty-seven have been killed in a Boko Haram terrorist attack.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated in an essay in The Economist yesterday that the has taken on a positional nature.  His article is entitled. "Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It".

It's odd for a commander to write such an op ed during a time of war, but that the war has become static is pretty obvious. This needs to be overcome if Ukraine is to achieve victory.  If it does not, Western nations will ultimately lose interest in funding the Ukrainian effort.

November 4, 2023

China v. Everyone

Japan and the Philippines are moving towards a troop cooperation agreement.

November 5, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

According to the ISW:

Zaluzhny’s long essay, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It,” outlines Zaluzhnyi’s consideration of the changes Ukraine must make to overcome the current “positional” stage of the war more clearly than the shorter op-ed and the Economist article it accompanied. Zaluzhnyi wrote that the war “is gradually moving to a positional form” and noted that Ukraine needs to gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; and build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to overcome positional warfare.[2] Positional warfare refers to military operations that do not result in rapid or dramatic changes to the frontline despite both sides‘ continuing efforts to improve their positions. Zaluzhnyi notably did not say that the war was stalemated in his essay or suggest that Ukraine could not succeed. His essay focused, rather, on explaining that the current positional character of the war was a result of technological-tactical parity on the battlefield and the widespread use of mine barriers by Russian and Ukrainian troops. Zaluzhnyi considered the opportunities presented to Ukraine by Russia’s challenges, including the significant losses suffered by Russian aviation; Ukrainian use of Western missile and artillery weapons; and Russia’s failure to take advantage of its human mobilization resources due to political, organizational, and motivational issues. Zaluzhnyi argued that to avoid World War I-style “trench war” and move to maneuver warfare, Ukraine must develop new approaches including technological and other changes, some of which depend on Western support and others require adaptations within the Ukrainian military, state, and society. Zaluzhnyi concluded that positional warfare benefits Russia as it prolongs the war and could allow Russia to achieve superiority in certain areas. Zaluzhnyi argued that Ukraine or Russia could return to rapid maneuver warfare under the right circumstances, which for Ukraine must include Western-provided military resources. Zaluzhnyi’s essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate.

November 6, 2023

Hamas v. Israel War 

Secretary of State Anthony Blinken engaged in a round of regional shuttle diplomacy yesterday.

The IDF has split the Gaza Strip in two.

November 7, 2023

Sudan

Jihadi militias have murdered over 800 Massalit tribe members in Darfur, Sudan over the past few days.  Like their oppressors, the Massalit are Muslims, but they are generally somewhat relaxed in their observance and retain some pre conversion practices in spite of having long been Muslims.  Over recent decades they have become more orthodox in their observance.

I frankly don't know what this conflict is about.

November 8, 2023

Hamas v. Israel War

U.S. Rep Rashida Tlaib was censured for her "river to the sea" comment.  Tlaib is of Palestinian extraction and has a vocal critic of Israel.

U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman claimed n a television interview that Palestinian protests in the US were due to Palestinian infiltration of the U.S. government.

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian's seem to have crossed the Dnipro in some force and to have ferried armored vehicles across the river.

November 9, 2023

Myanmar

Myanmar has lost control of much of its border with China due to attacks by three ethnic rebel armies in Shan State.

Iran v the West

The U.S. has attacked an Iranian backed militia's weapon storage facility in Syria via the air.

November 10, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Israel agreed to pause its offensive actions periodically for humanitarian reasons but not to provide for a ceasefire or ceasefires.

Headline in the British newspaper The Telegraph:

‘Queers for Palestine’ must have a death wish

Truly.

The Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and Gaza, have one of the world's worst records for intolerance of this topic in the world.  Homosexual Palestinians fairly frequently flee to Israel.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian forces have nearly encircled Avdiivka.

November 12, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Israel has rejected calls for a cease fire and has indicated that it will retain security control of Gaza fater the war.

Russo Ukrainian War

Russian offensive activities in recent days have been resulting in huge casualties to their army.

November 16, 2023

Iran v. the West

The U.S. navy shot down a drone launched from Yemen aimed at a ship yesterday.

November 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Ukrainian forces have established bridgeheads on the east bank of the Dnipro and are pushing Russian forces back beyond artillery range of the west bank.

November 20, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Houthi rebels have taken a cargo ship in a helicopter raid on the same.  They have asserted this is legitimate as the ship had Israeli connections.

November 22, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Israel has agreed to a four-day cease fire for humanitarian reasons.  Hostages are to be released during that time period.

Iranian backed militias launched missiles at a US base in Iraq, causing the US to retaliate with an airstrike.

November 23, 2023

India v. Sikh separatists.

The US has announced that it foiled a plot on the life of a Sikh seperatist living in the US.  A successful attempt on the life of a Sikh figure in Canada has lead to tension between those two countries.  India denies being involved.

November 25, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

A prisoner exchange (Palestinian prisoners for Israeli and multinational hostages) took place yesterday as scheduled.  Twenty four hostages were releaed, including 13 Israelis, 10 Thai citizens, and one Filipino citizen.

December 1, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Fighting has resumed.

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part X, Declarations

Related threads:

The Palestinian Problem and its Wilsonian Solution.

Hamas v. Israel. Some observations, and How did we get here?







Thursday, November 30, 2023

Blog Mirror: Casper activists demand local action for Palestinian liberation

 I saw this yesterday:

Casper activists demand local action for Palestinian liberation

Local action for Palestinian liberation?

What sort of dipshit would think that; 1) anyone in the Middle East cares what the views of a handful of people in a small Western city hold; and 2) somebody somewhere is going to think "a protest in a remote place by a purple haired sharpy. . oh, well we better make peace now, what were we thinking?"

Funny thing is that if Hamas got its way, and these people lived in Israel, they'd probably end up with a bullet in their head.

Monday, November 13, 2023

Why specific movements on the left always end up being disregarded. Sense and Solidarity. Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist, 51st edition.

As a climate justice movement, we have to listen to the voices of those who are being oppressed and those who are fighting for freedom and for justice. Otherwise, there can be no climate justice without international solidarity.

Greta Thurnberg.

And, now Thurnberg, having sided with murder, has jumped the shark.

There's no connection whatsoever, and even less than that, with the situation in the Middle East and the climate,

But this is typical. In the 20s and 30s the American left came around to supporting Stalin in many instances. Why?  Well, um, solidarity?

And this is why, in the end, that such movements lose their steam.  Here a man joined the stage to protest the diversion of the protest.  His actions were wrong, but his point was correct.

Of course the point will be made that being concerned for the Palestinians as a people, isn't the same as support for Hamas, and at least on an intellectual level, that's true. And as much as possible that can be done should be done to ease the humanitarian crisis that has come about.

But, by the same token, we should note, the East Prussians were not the same thing as the SS.  They were displaced, permanently, in 1945 and nobody, outside the East Prussians, has shed a tear about. Hor's de combat.  

Moreover, you can't really cross over from poster child for a cause, and frankly that's what she did, to left wing general agitator all at once and in this fashion.  It discredits the movement you came from, particularly with the nonsensical effort to link the two.

But, never mind.  The American left (and of course she's not part of that) supported every left wing cause of the 20s and 30s before burying their history of doing that in the late 40s and 50s.  It didn't help them in the end, and they've never been able to really wash the blood off.  

Solidarity is one thing.  Sense is another.

Last prior edition:

Cliffnotes of the Zeitgeist, 50th edition, the Synod Edition.

Sunday, November 5, 2023

More observations on the Hamas Israeli War. A sort of primer, war aims, and campaign aims. Part I.

War Aims.

A lot of reporting on the Hamas Israeli War, indeed nearly all of it, is devoid of discussion on war aims.  Some of it vaguely discusses Israeli campaign aims.  None of it so far that I've seen has discussed Hamas campaign aims.  Given that, a lot of the reporting is sort of naive.

Hamas, having started the campaign, will be discussed first.

Hamas was formed in 1987 (probably considerably more recently than many suppose.  Hamas controls Gaza, Fatah, the political arm of what had been the Palestinian Liberation Organization, controls the West Bank.  The two entities have actually fought each other.  Hamas started off with the goal of pushing Jews out of the boundaries of what had been the 1948 Palestinian borders, but earlier in the 2000s seemed to lessen its demands.

It seems to have returned to them.  As far as can be told, its war aims are to remove the Jews from Israel, dead or alive, and of any age, and create an Arab Palestinian, and seemingly Islamic (not all Palestinians are Muslims) state in its wake.  That's what's summed up in the phrase "from the river to the sea, Palestine will be free", which like a lot of slogans is catchy but doesn't really convey the full meaning of what it seeks.

Those are the war aims.

Without abandoning them, Hamas cannot back down, and Israel cannot unilaterally realistically convert the current war into a large scale punitive action at this point.  War aims can change, but Hamas shows no desire at all to do so.  A limited raid that was not aimed at civilians could have been undertaken if it has some other goal, but it didn't.

The campaign aims are much more difficult to discern.  Perhaps it was to spark a wider war in the belief that it could be won, or perhaps it was just a gross act of terrorism in furtherance of its remote, unobtainable goal.

Of course, discerning campaign aims, is often tricky in regard to an entity like Hamas, or even large entities.  In spite of long knowledge to the contrary, they may have thought that their raid, if that is what it was intended to be, would scare Israel into submission.  Hitting civilians never does that.  The British didn't surrender after the Blitz, and the air raids on civilian populations in Germany and Japan, perhaps if we exclude the atomic bomb, didn't cause them to surrender either.  Air raids on military targets in North Vietnam which inflicted civilian deaths didn't cause North Vietnam to give up.  9/11 only made Americans mad, it didn't achieve whatever it was that Al Queda thought it would, which seems to have been a hoped for general economic collapse.

Israel's war aims are also simple.  Its goal is to destroy Hamas as it views it, correctly, as irreconcilably opposed to its existence and genocidal in nature.  Its campaign aims seem to be to occupy Gaza, or perhaps the northern portion of the Gaza Strip, trap Hamas, and destroy it and its infrastructure.

Outright destroying an underground organization, however, is very difficult to do. The US basically did it in Afghanistan, however, so it can be done.

Nobody is talking at all about what's going to become of the Palestinians.  Israel isn't addressing it. The Arabs aren't either.  Hamas is simply using their own people as human shields and for propoganda.

A cultural existential difference, or Why can't everyone get along?

Cultures play a part in wars, which people in the West are oddly inclined to forget.  Jimmy Carter famously absent-mindedly quipped that the problems between the Israeli's and Palestinians would go away if they all started acting "like good Christians", but of course neither group is predominantly Christian.

I've taken some criticism on a more stretched observation in this area recently, so I'll explain a bit what I mean.

This question posed above is really a Western one, filtered through our eyes, which are the eyes of heavy Christian influence.  As a South American atheist friend of mine once stated, culturally, "we're all Catholics", even if we often don't behave like it.  That's why we're shocked when people don't behave accordingly.  

Historically and culturally, that's not necessarily the default human norm at all, which doesn't mean that every non-Christian culture (including the two in question) default to bad behavior.   But, as Genghis Khan supposedly noted (often filtered in our culture through Conan the Barbarian in a modified form):

The greatest pleasure is to vanquish your enemies and chase them before you, to rob them of their wealth and see those dear to them bathed in tears, to ride their horses and clasp to your bosom their wives and daughters.

We don't think that way, and we don't want others thinking that way.

Back to this war, the fact of the matter is that these two groups of people aren't going to get along.  The Western concept that somehow they can be made to is simply in error at this point.

It might have been true a couple of times.  One was in 1948, just before the first Arab Israeli War broke out, although that's pretty debatable. The second time was when the 1993 and 1995 Palestinian Accords were reached. The big problem is that both times, large numbers of Palestinians simply rejected a future which included Jews within the 1948 Palestinian boundaries.

The 1948 rejection was accompanied by voting with their feet by the Palestinians, a logical choice but one that was taken advantage of by Israel in that it offered the opportunity to truly make the country principally Jewish.  Nobody can fault somebody for fleeing fighting, but the fact that it occured meant that a large Arab population removed itself.  If it had not, demographics alone would have repeated what in fact occured in Lebanon, where a majority Christian population at that time is now 32% of the population.

Instead of taking that route, the Palestinians first relied on Arab hostility to take the country back for them, and then for the PLO, which ultimately compromised on that, to do so.  Now, a certain percentage are relying on Hamas.

Regarding that calculation, relying on it in the 1950s, and even into the 1960s, wasn't irrational.  After that, it really started to be. At some point, the land belongs to those who live there.  It was Zapata who stated; “The land belongs to those who work it with their own hands”, which is how it should be (and how it's increasingly ceasing to be in the United States)  That same analogy pertains to revolutions.  It instinctively makes sense for the people ruled by another people to rebel, but not so much a people that had once lived in a land where the majority of the population isn't yours, and the majority of your population wasn't born in that land.  Indeed, the fact that the initial Jewish war for independence sort of violated that tenant is part of the reason that many nations around the globe were quite hesitant about supporting Israel early on, combined with the fact that it appeared they'd lose.

Beyond that, as an essay in Minding The Campus has related:

(Professor Mordechai) Kedar, a former officer in the Israeli Defense Forces, has spent his academic life studying Islamic and Arab history and society. He explains that the animus of Palestinians, Arabs, and Islamists against the Jewish state is based on the consensus of Islamic religious thought that believes that Jews as a religion, people, or nation are never to be the equals of Muslims, and so their independent state, Israel, must be “struck down.”

While that can be debated, there's at least something to it, or there has come to be.   For the most part, since World War Two, Middle Eastern Islam, which is its cradle, has become increasingly more "conservative", if that is the correct term, and militant over the decades.  That was always there, and indeed Saudi Arabia was founded due to the Saud family's alliance with a group so conservative it was regarded as heretical.  Islam does not have a real coexistence ethos as we'd understand it towards other religions.  It's often noted that it has allowances for "People of the Book", meaning both Jews and Christians, but that tolerance is limited and provides that they are to be second class citizens.

Neither Christianity nor Judaism have something similar towards other religions, which doesn't mean that individual Christian or Jewish societies are de facto tolerant.  People tend to generally be intolerant of any group that's different from themselves.

Interestingly, early Middle Eastern governments didn't have this feature to them, or at least not to the same extent.  Turkey just celebrated its 100th founding as a modern state, and that state was founded as a secular one.  Atatürk suppressed Islam in his country.  Jordan has always been a Muslim state, but the Hashemite family that rules it, and once controlled Mecca, has tended towards moderation consistently.  The Baath movement that controls most of Syria and once controlled Iraq was a fascist movement early on that included Muslim and Christian Arabs and which sought a secular state in the Middle East.  The PLO was a secular organization that leaned heavily on Communist thought.  There was at one time a strong sense amongst Arab nationalist that Islam had to be suppressed or, if not outright suppressed, the state's had to be secular. That really began to fall way with the Iranian revolution, and there's been a good deal of retreat from it since that time.

Which takes us to the current highly conservative (again, if that is the right word) Israeli government.

The current Israeli government is the most conservative, again if that's the word, one ever.  It follows part of the global drift towards far right populism.  Prior to the Hamas attack, it was receiving a good deal of pushback from Western nations and internally, in no small part due to an effort to subordinate the Israeli supreme court to the Knesset.  In the irony that all such conflicts create, that's all been forgotten now.  At any rate, a sharp turn to the right by Israel made it pretty clear that any current Israeli desires to really find a mutual solution to the problems now being fought over just weren't there.

All of which leaves us with this.

Hamas has attacked and made it clear that it thinks it can murder its way towards achieving its goals, a sort of accelerated variant of the 1939-1945 lebensraum at this point.  Israel can't allow that to happen.

There are paths to a lasting peace here, but nobody involved, or even with influence, is going to try to bring them about, so the question is whether the warring parties, or more precisely Israel, can bring it about by force.

Wednesday, November 1, 2023

Lex Anteinternet: Some more Hamas Israeli War observations

Lex Anteinternet: Some more Hamas Israeli War observations: 1. What is "proportionality" in a war with an opponent that's genocidal? So what, exactly, is proportional to people who will ...

As a followup, it's interesting to note that victorious powers of the Second World War are still, nearly 80 years after it ended, occasionally prosecuting people who were young in the early 1940s who had some role with the death camps.  We don't worry about putting these people, now in their high 90s or even over 100, on trial even though it arguably serves no purpose whatsoever now.

Proportional?

Well, perhaps, given the monstrosity of the crime. 

Which leads us back to this, what is proportional to an entity that has committed horrors just as equally vile as that which the Nazis did in the 40s, and which would commit more?

Targeting civilians certainly isn't it, but how do you handle an enemy that hides among civilians, and has encouraged them to stay?

And yet again, what do you do if that population actually supports murder to a large degree, and right now, other than the insistence that they do not, there's not very good evidence that they don't.   They're still civilians, but how do you address that?

Tuesday, October 31, 2023

Some more Hamas Israeli War observations

1. What is "proportionality" in a war with an opponent that's genocidal?

So what, exactly, is proportional to people who will do that?

We keep hearing the response should be proportional, but proportional to what? 

How far does being proportional with homicidal forces go?

What it doesn't mean is that "you killed ten, so we get to kill ten."

What was proportional to the Holocaust, if that was the measure during World War Two?  It wasn't, of course, but was proportional to being invaded by the Nazis?

2.  Why should the response be proportional?

Mind you, I think it should, but I'm a Catholic.  Catholics developed the theory of just war. 

Most peoples don't have a theory of just war, although the Israeli's by Jewish tradition would, as the Old Testament at least tangentially discusses it.

Does Islam?  I have no idea.

Anyhow, when people say a war should be proportional, what they're implying is that the war should be fought as if it's being fought by Christians, which implies that the Christian world view is correct.  It's an entire package.  If you adopt just part of it, you reject all of it, which means, in the end, accepting that fighting war the old way is just fine.

Most non-Christian people, when they fight wars, don't worry about proportionality.  We instinctively know that. That's why we are horrified by the Germans in World War Two, but pretty much yawn about Japanese atrocities. And that's why were are justifiably horrified by My Lai in Vietnam, but don't really worry that much about the NVA in Hue.

It's probably also, at least partially, why we worry about what the IDF does in Gaza, but are pretty acceptable of Hamas being willing to kill everyone, pretty much in Israel.

We ought not to think that way.

3.  Why does Hamas get a pass with so many people and Israel does not?

What the root of that?

It's either anti-Semitism (which a lot of it is) or that we, ironically, hold Israel to a higher standard, which means that we hold Hamas to  a very low one.  We discussed that above.

The most disturbing part is that there remains a lot of people who really hate the Jews.  And it comes out, strangely, in the left in recent years, which is more closely associated with that demographic than the right. 

But perhaps we should not be surprised. The extreme left has always surfaced in the popular left, and since the early 20th Century it's always been genocidal.  It loved bloody Lenin, then Stalin, and so on. That it would love Hamas, in the same spirit that it loved the Reds, isn't really too surprising.

4.  Why do we keep saying that "Hamas doesn't represent the Palestinians?".  

There's no evidence of that, except that the last election in Gaza was quite a few years ago.  So we really don't know.  Hamas might represent the views of the majority of Palestinians.  What if that's true?

And why do the Palestinians uniquely get a pass this way.  People would shout down somebody stating that "most Germans weren't Nazi's".

Wednesday, October 25, 2023

The Palestinians and the Hard Economic Realities.

According to a relief official who was interviewed on Face the Nation, 80% of Gazans rely upon relief food daily.

80%.

This is the hard fact of this conflict that nobody wants to address.  Palestinians are wards of the outside world, with nearly half unemployed, and 80% relying upon some species of the dole.  They're trapped inside of Gaza behind closed borders. They have nothing to do, survive on the donations of others, and are encouraged to view themselves as horribly oppressed people by some of their suppliers. They have developed, in my view, a victims' culture in which everything is somebody else's fault, including the realities of reactions to their violence.

Those who suggest that, effectively, the Israeli's simply ignore what happen to them are also ignoring this.  

People who live in the conditions that Gazans do specifically, and Palestinians in the Middle East do in general, turn to violence.  It's not because they're Muslim.  They do it for the same reason that people in American inner cities do, or Catholics in Northern Ireland did.  Underemployed, unemployed, bored, but given handouts, it's easy to sit around and brood all day.  And with time on your hands, joining a militia that promises to steal from somebody else, such as Hamas, MS-13, Vice Lords, or Barrio Azteca looks attractive.

So, at the end of the day, this needs to be addressed or there will not be peace.

Much of the advice being given out right now is pretty much shortsighted.  If Israel just backs off, Hamas will come back, claiming that Israel was afraid of it.  And the entire situation will repeat.

As hard as it sounds, Palestinians in Gaza need to be made to get a job and get off the dole.  The extra hard part of that is that there are too many of them there to make that work in the current environment.  City states can work, taken Monaco as an example, but they have to have an open border with their larger neighbor and something the world wants.  In the case of Monaco, it's gambling.  For Andorra, it's tourism.  Others have port shipping, banking and even unique manufacturing.  Gaza has none of that, and it's not going to as long as this is going on.

And it's never going to have it as long as its financiers just fork over money, and as long as the Palestinians harbor delusions of driving the Israeli's into the sea.

Getting over those delusions requires hard facts to be conveyed by their backers, and Iran, which is a major one, isn't going to do that as its equally delusional.

And to make the city livable, some of them are going to have to move, at least temporarily, and probably permanently.

And there's no reason to believe that we are anywhere near this suggestion yet.

Tuesday, October 24, 2023

What's the US doing? The Hamas Israeli War.

Well It's not really clear, other than the Navy has been engaged in shooting down drones and missiles that are aimed at Israel, which is a direct intervention in the war. Having said that, when somebody shoots a missile there isn't that much time to figure out where it's going, and Iran, through its proxies, has been attacking our troops in Iraq and Syria for quite some time.

We seem to be getting ready to deploy ground troops, somewhere, in support of Israel's efforts.

And it's pretty clear that we're staging in case this goes regional in a fashion that we feel we need to get into.

It's interesting how we're rushing headlong into this, without much thought.  Over the weekend, on one of the weekend shows, some politician was arguing that the US should raid into Gaza if we know where some American hostages may be held.  I don't doubt, moreover, that we would.

Israel, for its part, has never overtly asked for US boots on the ground, or aircraft in the air, in any of its wars.  And it hasn't needed them.

Caution. Deep water ahead.

The largest? The Hamas v. Israel War.

I have now heard over and over in the press that the upcoming Israeli invasion is the "largest" this or that, suggesting that this is the biggest war, or the biggest deployment of troops, in Israel's history.

Is it?

Well, you have to have a sense of history to gauge that.

I've recently been running some items on the Yom Kippur War, which occured 50 years ago, and which brought the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of war.  That pitted about 400,000 Israeli troops against the armies of Egypt and Syria, plus another 100,000 troops from other regional states.  Right at about 1,000,000 Arab troops contested the Israelis.

Now, in this one, we do hear that 300,000 IDF reservists have been called up, and yes, that's a bunch.  The total number of mass Israeli troops may exceed those that were hastily called up in 1973. We'll see. But the scope of the contest is, so far, smaller.  Indeed, the calling up of the reservists may be in the hopes of keeping it smaller.

In the Six Day War, Israel had 264,000 troops, but only deployed 100,000 of them.  The Arab forces had over 500,000 troops, but only deployed about 250,000 of them.

Israel isn't going to send all of is troops into Gaza.  A lot of those troops were likely called up in order to secure its northern border.  Assuming that it invades Gaza with this model, it certainly will not be Israel's largest war, but it might mean the largest overall manpower size for the IDF in its history.

Not that the threat of this being much larger doesn't exist.  Iran seems intent on making it so.

Friday, October 20, 2023

Biden addresses the nation on Ukraine and Israel

 Good evening, my fellow Americans.

We’re facing an inflection point in history. One of those moments where the decisions we make today are going to determine the future for decades to come. That’s what I’d like to talk with you about tonight.

Now earlier this morning I returned from Israel. They tell me I’m the first American president to travel there during a war. I met with the prime minister and members of his cabinet, and most movingly, I met with Israelis who had personally lived through the horrific horror of the attack by Hamas on the 7th of October. More than 1,300 people slaughtered in Israel, including at least 32 American citizens. Scores of innocents from infants to the elderly, grandparents, Israelis, Americans taken hostage. As I told the families of Americans being held captive by Hamas, we’re pursuing every avenue to bring their loved ones home. As president, there is no higher priority for me than the safety of Americans held hostage.

The terrorist group Hamas unleashed pure unadulterated evil in the world, but sadly, the Jewish people know, perhaps better than anyone, that there is no limit to the depravity of people when they want to inflict pain on others.

In Israel, I saw a people who are strong, determined, resilient and also angry, in shock and in deep, deep pain. I also spoke with President Abbas, the Palestinian Authority, and reiterated that the United States remains committed to the Palestinian people’s right to dignity and to self-determination. The actions of Hamas terrorists don’t take that right away.

Like so many others, I’m heartbroken by the tragic loss of Palestinian life, including the explosion at the hospital in Gaza, which was not done by the Israelis. We mourn every innocent life lost. We can’t ignore the humanity of innocent Palestinians who only want to live in peace and have an opportunity.

You know, the assault on Israel echoes nearly 20 months of war, tragedy and brutality inflicted on the people of Ukraine, people that were very badly hurt since Putin launched his all-out invasion.

We’ve not forgotten the mass graves, the bodies found bearing signs of torture, rape used as a weapon by the Russians, and thousands and thousands of Ukrainian children forcibly taken into Russia, stolen from their parents.

It’s sick.

Hamas and Putin represent different threats, but they share this in common. They both want to completely annihilate a neighboring democracy — completely annihilate it. Hamas’ stated purpose for existing is the destruction of the state of Israel and the murder of Jewish people. Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people. Hamas uses Palestinian civilians as human shields, and innocent Palestinian families are suffering greatly because of them.

Meanwhile, Putin denies Ukraine has, or ever had, real statehood. He claims the Soviet Union created Ukraine. And just two weeks ago, he told the world that if the United States and our allies withdraw — and if the United States withdraws, our allies will as well — military support for Ukraine would have, quote, a week left to live.

But we’re not withdrawing.

I know these conflicts can seem far away, and it’s natural to ask: Why does this matter to America? So let me share with you why making sure Israel and Ukraine succeed is vital for America’s national security.

You know, history has taught us that when terrorists don’t pay a price for their terror, when dictators don’t pay a price for their aggression, they cause more chaos and death and more destruction. They keep going. And the cost and the threats to America and the world keep rising.

So if we don’t stop Putin’s appetite for power and control in Ukraine, he won’t limit himself just to Ukraine. He’s — Putin’s already threatened to remind, quote, remind Poland that their western land was a gift from Russia. One of his top advisers, a former president of Russia, has called Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania Russia’s Baltic provinces.

These are all NATO allies. For 75 years, NATO has kept peace in Europe. And has been the cornerstone of American security. And if Putin attacks a NATO ally, we will defend every inch of NATO, which a treaty requires and calls for.

We’ll have something that we do not seek. Make it clear — we do not seek — we do not seek to have American troops fighting in Russia or fighting against Russia.

Beyond Europe, we know that our allies, and maybe most importantly our adversaries and competitors, are watching. They’re watching our response in Ukraine as well. And if we walk away and let Putin erase Ukraine’s independence, would-be aggressors around the world would be emboldened to try the same. The risk of conflict and chaos could spread in other parts of the world: in the Indo-Pacific, in the Middle East, especially in the Middle East. Iran is supporting Russia in Ukraine, and it’s supporting Hamas and other terrorist groups in the region. And we’ll continue to hold them accountable, I might add.

The United States and our partners across the region are working to build a better future for the Middle East. One where the Middle East is more stable, better connected to its neighbors, and through innovative projects like the India, Middle East and Europe rail corridor that I announced this year at the summit of the world’s biggest economies, more predictable markets, more employment, less rage, less grievances, less war when connected. It benefits the people. It would benefit the people of the Middle East, and it would benefit us.

American leadership is what holds the world together. American alliances are what keep us, America, safe. American values are what make us a partner that other nations want to work with. To put all that at risk if we walk away from Ukraine, if we turn our backs on Israel, it’s just not worth it.

That’s why tomorrow I’m going to send to Congress an urgent budget request to fund America’s national security needs, to support our critical partners, including Israel and Ukraine. It’s a smart investment that’s going pay dividends for American security for generations, help us keep American troops out of harm’s way, help us build a world that is safer, more peaceful and more prosperous for our children and grandchildren.

The prospect of a prolonged war could pile economic havoc atop a devastating human toll.

In Israel, we must make sure that they have what they need to protect their people today and always. The security package I’m sending to Congress and asking Congress to do is an unprecedented commitment to Israel’s security that will sharpen Israel’s qualitative military edge, which we’ve committed to: the qualitative military edge. We’re going make sure Iron Dome continues to guard the skies over Israel. We’re going to make sure other hostile actors in the region know that Israel’s stronger than ever and prevent this conflict from spreading.

Look, at the same time, President Netanyahu and I discussed again, yesterday, the critical need for Israel to operate by the laws of war. That means protecting civilians in combat as best as they can. The people of Gaza urgently need food, water and medicine.


Yesterday, in discussions with the leaders of Israel and Egypt, I secured an agreement for the first shipment of humanitarian assistance from the United Nations to Palestinian civilians in Gaza. If Hamas does not divert or steal this shipment, these shipments, we’re going to provide an opening for sustained delivery of lifesaving humanitarian assistance for the Palestinians.

As I said in Israel, as hard as it is, we cannot give up on peace. We cannot give up on a two-state solution.

Israel and Palestinians equally deserve to live in safety, dignity and peace.

You know, and here at home we have to be honest with ourselves. In recent years, too much hate has given too much oxygen, fueling racism, a rise in antisemitism, Islamic-phobia, right here in America.

It’s also intensified in the wake of recent events that led to the horrific threats and attacks that both shock us and break our hearts.

On Oct. 7, terror attacks have triggered deep scars and terrible memories in the Jewish community. Today, Jewish families worried about being targeted in school, wearing symbols of their faith walking down the street, or going out about their daily lives. And I know many of you in the Muslim American community, the Arab American community, the Palestinian American community and so many others are outraged and hardened saying to yourselves, “Here we go again with Islamophobia and the distrust we saw after 9/11.”

Just last week, a mother was brutally stabbed. A little boy here in the United States, a little boy who just turned 6 years old, was murdered in their home outside of Chicago. His name was Wadea. Wadea, a proud American, a proud Palestinian American family.

We can’t stand by and stand silent when this happens. We must without equivocation denounce antisemitism. We must also without equivocation denounce Islamophobia.

And to all you hurting, those of you who are hurting, I want you to know I see you. You belong. And I want to say this to you: You’re all America. You’re all America.

This is in a moment where — you know, in moments like these, when fear and suspicion, anger and rage run hard — that we have to work harder than ever to hold on to the values that make us who we are. We’re a nation of religious freedom, freedom of expression. We all have a right to debate and disagree, without fear of being targeted in schools or workplaces or in our communities.

We must renounce violence and vitriol, see each other not as enemies, but as fellow Americans.

When I was in Israel yesterday, I said that when America experienced the hell of 9/11, we felt enraged as well, and while we sought and got justice, we made mistakes. So I caution the government of Israel not to be blinded by rage.

And here in America, let us not forget who we are. We reject all forms, all forms of hate, whether against Muslims, Jews, or anyone. That’s what great nations do. And we are a great nation.

On Ukraine, I’m asking Congress to make sure we can continue to send Ukraine the weapons they need to defend themselves and their country without interruption, so Ukraine can stop Putin’s brutality in Ukraine.

They are succeeding. When Putin invaded Ukraine, he thought he would take Kyiv and all of Ukraine in a matter of days. Well over a year later, Putin has failed, and he continues to fail.

Kyiv still stands because the bravery of the Ukrainian people. Ukraine has regained more than 50 percent of the territory Russian troops once occupied. Backed by U.S.-led coalition of more than 50 countries around the world, all doing its part to support Kyiv.

What would happen if we walked away? We are the essential nation.

Meanwhile, Putin has turned to Iran and North Korea to buy attack drones and ammunition to terrorize Ukrainian cities and people.

From the outset, I have said I will not send American troops to fight in Ukraine. All Ukraine is asking for is help, for the weapons, munitions, the capacity, the capability to push invading Russian forces off their land. And the air defense systems to shoot down Russian missiles before they destroy Ukrainian cities.

Let me be clear about something.

We send Ukraine equipment sitting in our stockpiles. And when we use the money allocated by Congress, we use it to replenish our own stores, our own stockpiles, with new equipment. Equipment that defends America and is made in America. Patriot missiles for air defense batteries, made in Arizona. Artillery shells manufactured in 12 states across the country, in Pennsylvania, Ohio, Texas. And so much more.

You know, just as in World War II, today patriotic American workers are building the arsenal of democracy and serving the cause of freedom.

Let me close with this:

Earlier this year, I boarded Air Force One for a secret flight to Poland. There I boarded a train, with blacked-out windows for a 10-hour ride each way to Kyiv to stand with the people of Ukraine ahead of the one-year anniversary of their brave fight against Putin. I’m told I was the first American to enter a war zone not controlled by the United States military since President Lincoln.

With me was just a small group of security personnel and a few advisers. But when I exited that train and met Zelensky, President Zelensky, I didn’t feel alone. I was bringing with me the idea of America, the promise of America, to the people who are today fighting for the same things we fought for 250 years ago: freedom, independence, self-determination. And as I walked through Kyiv with President Zelensky, with air raid sirens sounding in the distance, I felt something I’ve always believed more strongly than ever before: America is a beacon to the world, still, still.

We are, as my friend Madeleine Albright said, the indispensable nation.

Tonight, there are innocent people all over the world who hope because of us. Who believe in a better life because of us. Who are desperate not to be forgotten by us. And who are waiting for us.

But time is of the essence.

I know we have our divisions at home. We have to get past them. We can’t let petty, partisan, angry politics get in the way of our responsibilities as a great nation. We cannot and will not let terrorists like Hamas and tyrants like Putin win. I refuse to let that happen.

In moments like these, we have to remind — we have to remember who we are. We are the United States of America. The United States of America. And there is nothing, nothing beyond our capacity, if we do it together.

My fellow Americans, thank you for your time. May God bless you all, and may God protect our troops.

Thursday, October 19, 2023

Proportionality.

Everyone has the right to defend themselves.  Even Pope Francis, who is on the rather liberal end of many things, agrees with this.


But what is proportional to an enemy who has vowed to murder the populace and demonstrated that intent with murdering babies?

And let us be honest.  The claim, "the majority of Palestinian people do not support Hamas" is pretty much equivalent to "most Germans weren't Nazi's", isn't it?  It's thin.  Indeed, maybe for those in the Middle East today, it has even less credibility.  Certainly here in the US, in spite of separation from the artificial boundaries of the legacy of the Ottoman Empire and the Great War, plenty of Palestinians and their first generation descendants have rallied to the bloody cause as so many Palestinians have in the past, demonstrating that lamenting the results of bad decisions seems to be an intergenerational habit.

Congressman Rashida Tlaib, who was quick to accuse the IDF of rocketing a Palestinian hospital that in fact Islamic Jihad, which would regard her as an abhorrent example of a woman who should be out of government, accidentally rocketed.

But does that matter?

And did it in 1945?

And let us be further honest. The concept of proportionality is a Christian one.  No other culture worries about it to the same extent that Christian ones do, and if it is now a global concept, it's' due in no small measure to Christianity.  Everyone protesting for proportionality does so in hopes that it reaches a Christian audience. The historical global norm, outside of Judaism and Christianity (and I'll confess ignorance on Islam), was for slaughter.

It's the Christian influence that's made it unacceptable.  For pagan people, and non-Abrahamic people?  Well, that was what was done.

So we are left, then, with what is proportionality?

Was destroying Berlin in 1945 proportional to the Nazi genocidal imperial regimes?  Or would it have been better to say, well, not all Germans were Nazis?  Or did that, with a threat like Nazism, not really matter that much?

Questions that have to be answered. And the namby pampy "let's condemn overreaction" have to answer them most of all.

Or does it?

Does staying a hand, display more strength than using it? Turn, as it were, the other cheek?

And can we, even with the descent into liberal secularism, which seems to solely involve what's under our Fruit of the Looms, avoid answering them, in real, bloody, terms, rather than platitudes?

I offer no solutions, or answers.

I'm only posing the questions.  With, of course, the proviso that if you answer wrong, there's blood on your hands, one away, or the other.

Tuesday, October 17, 2023

Reality and platitudes.

 Years ago, mostly on neo-hippy cars, I'd see bumper stickers that said; "Free Tibet".  The same cars would be festooned and bedecked with all sorts of liberal stickers, such as "Save the whales" and the like.

In the real world freeing Tibet would take a military effort of gigantic proportions, if not an outright nucelar war.

You can choose to deal with reality, but anyway you look at it, reality is going to deal with you.

There's a lot of unrealistic thinking going on regarding the current Hamas Israel War outside the country.

One thing that we're seeing a lot of are pleas that Israel not do anything that harms average Palestinians.  More sophisticated thinkers, which most of these people are not, would argue the law of proportionality, which is that a violent armed effort against you does not invite a disproportionate response.

To put it uncomfortably for Americans, the Japanese attacking a U.S. Navy installation at Pearl Harbor does not invite murdering thousands of people through a nuclear device.

Having said that, nations, like people, have a right to self-defense, and Hamas clearly intends to murder the Jews in Israel.

They have to address that, and therefore they have to address Hamas. That means they have to go into Gaza and that action will kill civilians no matter what.

The real world.

I'm glad that I'm not the one who has to try to balance the moral scale here.  Some will argue that the solution is to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza, but that would be wrong.  Some would argue that the solution is to resume the administration of Gaza to preclude it from reviving as a terrorist enclave.  Is that wrong?

And in terms of right and wrong, it's interesting how the appeal is largely from people in Christian societies regarding a largely Islamic society.  Overall, concerns that the response will be disproportionate came from Christians, Christian influenced people, and Jews.  There isn't very much Islamic concern about proportionality.  Rather, it's "we've been occupied . . . " which is an accusation against an Israeli punitive action by a terrorist intervention done on their behalf, which they seem reluctant at best to disavow.  On the ground, Islamic societies aren't doing anything obvious to make this better.  They aren't opening their borders to Palestinians impacted by the war. Iran is threatening to "become involved" in the war which they went a long ways to helping bring about.

None of this is a reason not to be concerned, let alone to pray for peace, but it's also not a excuse to consider the grim realities of this sitaution.

Saturday, October 14, 2023

The Palestinian Problem and its Wilsonian Solution.

Lex Anteinternet: Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part X, Declarations

October 15, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Egypt has completed a concrete barrier to block Palestinian entrants from Gaza.  Their border is very small, so they will be able to enforce it.

Qatar has refused to take Palestinian refugees.

Why have I linked this in, well to demonstrate part of the problem.

Bernie "I knew Lenin when he was just a baby" Sanders has called Gaza an "open air prison".

It isn't, but if it is, the guards aren't just Israeli, they're also Egyptian, and quite frankly, the Arabs in general.  

Nobody wants the Palestinians, as by this point, to put it charitably, they're acclimated to living off the dole and are inclined to violence. They're like the residents of Northern Ireland at one time, on spades.

We went into the complicated history of what is now Israel the other day, but to unfairly summarize it, the problem was created by this.

Ottoman Palestine.

Jewish immigrants legally started migrating to the region when it was an Ottoman province, and then when it was a British League of Nations Mandate.  When the Jewish population became noticeable, in a region we might note that not only had an Arab population, but an Armenian population and a Greek population, the Palestinians began to worry and demanded that it stop.  They turned to violence in the 1930s/

Prior to this time, it isn't as if it was an independent country and indeed, as the map above shows, is borders weren't really what they are now.  Israel had been an independent kingdom in ancient times, but it had been conquered by numerous ancient empires and kingdoms during its history.  Rome put an end to Israel, as we discussed the other day, until 1948.  Like much of the pre World War One Arabic Middle East, it was ruled under Ottoman rule by various tribal families.  

The period after the Great War was transformational due to the high levels of Jewish immigration, and World War Two made a push towards a restoration of Jewish Israel inevitable.  After over a millennium of being murdered for no reason whatsoever, the Jewish people wanted a homeland of their own. And, by that time, they had the population base in Palestine to demand it.

The Palestinian Arabs simply couldn't accommodate themselves to the thought, and the non-Palestinian Arabs couldn't either. They made a bad bet.  Had the Palestinians imply gone along with it, quite frankly, by now the demographic impact of their higher birth rate would mean that Israel would have a majority Palestinian population. But they didn't, and in becoming refugees they became wards of the world.

Today, inside the Palestinian Authority, they suffer high unemployment, particularly in Gaza, which is an unnatural economic unit. The Arabs, and Iran, support them, but they've largely gotten over Israel by now and they don't want the Palestinians in their country. They'd rather back them economically than let them in.

But, if there's a solution to this, they probably need to.

Following World War One, largely due to Woodrow Wilson's view of how the world should work, everything pushed towards nation states.  Due to the Great War, Germany and Russia were pushed out of Poland. Finland, the Baltics States, and the various Slavic states that hadn't been independent, became independent.  Ireland became independent.  Colonialism started to become a dirty word.

The Ottoman Empire collapsed and Middle Eastern kingdoms, imperfectly drawn, sprang up. 

And populations were somewhat moved.  

After World War Two, this was very much the case again, although mostly due to the Soviet Union seeking to redraw is territory on ethnic grounds.

None of this is pleasant, but the solution to this may be here.

Israel isn't going to go away, and is not going to let itself become an Arab dominated state.

The Palestinians aren't going away either, but their territory, and they aren't getting Palestine back, isn't viable.  They've never, moreover, really had any sort of independent state in the first place.

They are also a Mediterranean people, which means that they are largely a Sunni Muslim (some are Christians, but they're disappearing as a demographic as Islam is hostile to them and for that matter the Israelis aren't keen on them either) Arab coastal people.

Qatar is a coastal, Sunni Bedouin Arab nation.  So is Saudi Arabia. So is Kuwait.  So is Dubai.

All of these countries have a labor shortage.

A solution, and perhaps the only one, is to resettle the Palestinians in those countries.  Not in one country, which will create all kinds of problems, but across them.  

They will not mix in immediately, but they would in fairly short order.  

Jews whose ancestors emigrated from Ukraine, Poland, etc., 75 years ago do not look back and wish romantically that they could reclaim lost occupations and lands. Frankly, in 75 years, if this was done, Palestinians wouldn't either.  For that matter, in a fairly short period, they'd be fairly mixed with the local Arab population in any event, their identify less of a thing, and their futures better.

Of course, nobody is proposing this, even though many are secretly thinking about it.  Simply pushing the Palestinians out of Gaza has come up as an Israeli solution before.  The Egyptians fear a lot of Palestinians heading their way, and they cannot accommodate them.  That Qatar would reject their entry at this point shows that a lot of Arab states have this on their minds.

And the Palestinians, clinging to a pipe dream, probably wouldn't want to do it either.

Related threads:

Hamas v. Israel. Some observations, and How did we get here?






Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part X, Declarations

You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.



The flags of Israel, apparently Hamas, and the crest of the Palestinian Authority.

We'll first bring this edition up to date with some entries from the last one:

October 7, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Hamas launched a large scale offensive against Israel yesterday, sending both ground forces and rockets across the border.  Israel has termed it a war and has called up reservists.

October 8, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Russia bizarrely called for a ceasefire between the warring parties.

Civilian casualties are about equal so far, each standing at about 250 persons.  Hamas took hostages back into Israel.

October 9, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

In something, we just don't see occur anymore, but which we really should, Israel has actually issued a Declaration of War, of course against Hamas.

Declarations are a formal legal document and really without one, at least legally, a state of war does not exist.  This is, therefore, not only a throwback (which it shouldn't be) to an earlier era, but an important legal step.

Israeli ground troops have not yet entered Gaza (we anticipate that it will) but Israel has placed Gaza under siege.  Nothing is coming in or out.

The US has moved ships closer to the region.

In acts of supreme stupidity, some members of Congress or others who are simply opponents of Joe Biden are blaming him for Hamas' actions.  Truly, that's really off the wall.  Look to see for some of those who rally to Israel's defense to be the same parties who are opposed to Ukraine's, and look for cries of US support to Israel from some of the same who would dump support for Ukraine, even though Ukraine is a democratic country, like Israel, also fighting for its existence.

Worth noting, one of the Hamas targets was a "rave" party, perhaps accidentally, in support of peace at which young Israeli's were gathered. Reports indicate that not only were attendees gunned down in cold blood, but at least two young women were raped next to the dead bodies of their friends and then viciously murdered.

This gives us two recent examples, which should not be forgotten, of armies using rape and murder as weapons against civilians, one being Putin's Russian army in Ukraine, and now Hamas, which claims Islam as part of its founding principles, in Israel.  Any army doing that loses all claims to legitimacy.

Hamas controls 74 seats out of the Palestinian's 132 in their parliament, giving them the majority.  How this war plays out is yet to be seen, but it has to call into grave question the land for peace strategy that Israel followed starting at the time of the Camp David Accords.

It is worth noting that Hamas' funding comes from donations, Gaza in particular being economically unviable.  Presently, a large percentage of that comes from Iran, which is somewhat ironic due to the traditional hostility between Sunni and Shia Islam. Hamas is primarily Sunni.  Other regional Sunni states are major economic donors as well.  Iran is also a backer of forces opposed to the US in Syria.

cont:

Israel has called up 300,000 reservists.

October 10, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Hamas operations in southern Israel expanded yesterday, and the IDF fought Hamas in thirteen locations on the West Bank. Hezbollah crossed Israel's northern border in a rocket supported raid.

This is all contrary to news reports, which have largely failed to mention that guerilla operations are expanding.

Hamas has called for a general mobilization for Friday.  This is unlikely to occur.

cont:

I think people will not believe the reports of what happened in Kfar Aza and Kibbutz Beeri. Even though Hamas posted photos and videos on their own Telegram channel. Because these are ISIS tactics. Beheaded babies and burned corpses. Yes, I saw the photos.

Lisa Goldman, Canadian journalist. 

This assertion is hotly disputed by Palestinians.

October 11, 2023

Russia v. Ukraine

Russia lost a bid, not surprisingly, to regain a seat on the UN Human Rights Council.  Its obtaining a seat would have rendered the Council a complete joke. 

It was suspended last year.

The Ukrainian offensive is back down to proceeding at a snail's pace.  There's really no way to put a happy spin on this.

October 11, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

US advanced weaponry has begun to arrive in Israel.

There are additional reports today that Hamas killed children and infants.

cont:

Liz Cheney has repeated the item about Hamas murdering 40 babies.  I note this, as Cheney has been a source that I trust, and whom certainly turned out to be correct about other foreign policy matters.

cont:

U.S. intelligence indicates that Iran, just like Israel (and the U.S.) was surprised by he Hamas assault on Israel.

That's likely because they would have tried to call it off, knowing that the falling chips would lead to a disastrous Hamas result in the end.

October 12, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Israel hit the Aleppo and Damascus airports in airstrikes, one just before an Iranian diplomat was set to land. His plane turned around back to Iran.  The plane apparently also contained members of the Quds Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards Corps.

Russia v. Ukraine

Ukraine is apparently working on port arrangements with Romania in order to ship grain from that country.

cont:

Hamas has called for a global day of jihad to take place tomorrow.

cont:

The Royal Navy, like the U.S. Navy, has now deployed in assistance to Israel.

October 14, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Israel notified the United Nations early today that the 1.1 million Palestinians in Gaza should relocate to the enclave's southern 12 miles within the next 24 hours.

This points out what I've stated elsewhere, but which very little of the media seems to be grasping. By the Palestinians giving their allegiance to Hamas, they're effectively doing the same thing that the Germans did by having given their allegiance to the Nazis.  They've invited destruction to rain down upon them.

There will be comments that the Israeli counteroffensive is disproportionate to what occured, but that misses the point.  It's not what should happen, it's what will happen.  Israel will go into Gaza and 1.1 million Palestinians will not be able to relocate. There will be numerous civilian deaths.  Palestinians, who excel at playing the wrongfully aggrieved party, will howl with remorse in the way common to Middle Easter people, but the end of Gaza as an effective entity is probable, and it's very likely that the end of Hamas will occur.

Things are going to get much worse, no matter how you look at it, before they get better.

North Korea v. South Korea

North Korea complained about a U.S. aircraft carrier being in South Korea.

Russia v. Ukraine

Russia has launched an offensive in the north, around Avidiivka.

Ukrainian offensive actions continue on elsewhere, but are slow.  As noted elsewhere, the Ukrainian offensive never really advanced at a significant rate and while it recently gained significant ground, it's bogged down again.  There are those trying to put a happy face on it, but what has been demonstrated is that the Ukrainian military, at present, is incapable, or unwilling to sustain the massive losses it would require, to advance at a rate that will bring it victory.

The Russians, for their part, are incapable of the same.

We're entering a World War One style stalemate.

Russian authorities are forcing dioceses of the Kremlin-affiliated Ukrainian Orthodox Church Moscow Patriarchate. to join the Russian Orthodox Church.

cont:

The Jerusalem Post can now confirm based on verified photos of the bodies that the reports of babies being burnt and decapitated in Hamas's assault on Kfar Aza are correct.

May their memory be a blessing.

The Jerusalem Post. 

cont:

Right in the middle of this map is a brown strip called the Gaza Wadi.  Everyone north of that line, which is everyone in Gaza city proper, has been told to evacuate by tomorrow.


It likely cannot happen, but the fact that the instruction has been given is telling.

Also telling are some of the facts and figures on this map, including the 46% unemployment rate and the 60% poverty rate.  Obviously, the entire Gaza Strip is untenable. It can't, and never will be able to be, anything more than sort of a welfare state.  Israel has not wanted it. Egypt, whose border with it is closed (something other countries seem to have no problem doing) tells us all we need to know about Egypt's view about Gaza.

A situation in which the Palestinians are impoverished welfare clients of the world, and more particularly of the Arab world, armed in order to give Israel grief by the Muslim nations of the Middle East, can't go on forever.  They will not overcome Israel and this situation cannot go on.  None of the options are comfortable, but they should be discussed.

Of note, over 6,000,000 non-Saudi nationals are employed in that country.

600,000 non nationals work in Bahrain.

4.9 million non nationals work in Dubai.

The entire Palestinian population of Gaza could be taken in by Arab states that need workers.  Yes, they may not want to go there either.  But to remain, they'll have to live how to accommodate themselves to reality, or this will go on and on. They should not be removed, of course, by force, but that may be just about to happen.

October 15, 2023

Hamas v. Israel

Republican Brooklyn Councilwoman Inna Vernikov, who is Jewish, was arrested Friday for carrying a firearm at a pro-Palestinian rally on Thursday.  There have been calls for her removal from office as a result.  

Frankly, her carrying a handgun at the event, which she was observing, was perfectly rational and fits exactly within the Second Amendment.

Egypt has completed a concrete barrier to block Palestinian entrants from Gaza.  Their border is very small, so they will be able to enforce it.

Qatar has refused to take Palestinian refugees.

Russia v. Ukraine

Russia has not conducted an airstrike against Ukraine since September 21, indicating that they are likely storing missiles for a winter offensive.

Afghani Civil War

A bomb outside a mosque killed fifteen people in the country yesterday.

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part IX, Late Summer.


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