In Yemen’s Houthis, U.S. and Britain face a ready, war-tested foe
Washington Post.
Ummm. . . yeah. . . one that's ready for a war fought 30 years ago, and against a foe that's an Iranian lackie.
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Iran. Show all posts
Friday, January 12, 2024
Tuesday, January 9, 2024
Wednesday, January 9, 1974. Oil.
OPEC voted to freeze oil prices for three months. Saudi Arabia had been willing to reduce them, but Algeria, Iraq, and Iran, had not been.
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Ronald and Nancy Reagan upon Reagan's 1966 Gubernatorial victory, and one decade away from his first run for the GOP Presidential ticket.
Actor turned politician Ronald Reagan delivered California's State of the State address, noting the oil crisis but asserting it was an opportunity to develop resources, freeing the US from foreign petroleum.
Friday, December 1, 2023
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part XI. Our Sins coming back to haunt us edition.
You will hear of wars and rumors of wars, but see to it that you are not alarmed. Such things must happen, but the end is still to come. Nation will rise against nation, and kingdom against kingdom.
Matthew, Chapter 24.
Well, Part X wasn't up for long before the next edition was necessary.
Ugh.
If any question why we died,
Tell them, because our fathers lied.
Kipling.
And so, the byproducts of the Great War continue to visit us, specter like. A war in Ukraine between a Slavic chauvinist empire, and one in the Middle East, sorting out the rubble of the Mandate.
So let us begin.
October 15, 2023
Hamas v. Israel.
Hamas infiltration attempts are continuing, but have dropped off on the West Bank.
Iran is warning the war could go regional, which it will not.
An Israeli ground offensive is imminent.
The US asked American citizens in Gaza (why on earth would anyone with American citizenship stay in Gaza?) to move closer to the Egyptian Rafah border crossing, which would likely suggest the U.S. has worked out some sort of deal with Egypt regarding Americans being displaced in the Gaza Strip (why on earth would anyone with American citizenship stay in Gaza?).
A bomb threat was levied against the Louvre yesterday, which is suspected to be related to this conflict in some fashion.
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian attacks on Avdiivka are continuing, but Ukrainian lines are holding. Apparently the offensive was anticipated.
October 16, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
From Twitter, and linked directly to what was put up there. Weapons displayed by the IDF that were used in the recent Hamas raid.
The really surprising one here is the ancient submachine gun. Apparently it is a Lanchester, which I've never even heard of. It looks like a German MP28 as it is in fact a version of it. They were actually produced, to my surprise, in large numbers during World War Two.
The Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem Cardinal Pizzaballa stated in an interview that he was willing to exchange himself as a hostage for the kidnapped children.
October 17, 2023
Hamas v Israel
Four Iranian nationals have been detained at the Del Rio crossing between the US and Mexico since October 1, with two Iranian nationals regarded as terrorist threats.
The Church of Saint Porphyrius, built in 1150 through 1160, a Greek Orthodox Church, is now housing Palestinian refugees of all religions.
2,000 U.S. troops are being readied to deploy to the region in support roles to Israel.
Churches of the West: A Day of Fasting and Prayer: Bishop Bigler of the Diocese of Cheyenne has declared this a voluntary fast day for Peace in the Middle East.
Prayer for Peace in the Holy Land
The Diocese of Cheyenne is asking Catholics in the Diocese to pray for Peace in the Holy Land, and has issued this prayer.
Pray for Peace in the Holy Land
Lord God, merciful and strong,
who crush wars and cast down the proud,
who extend mercy and tenderness to all,
we pray to you for the Holy Land, for the people of Israel and Palestine
who are under the grip of unprecedented violence,
for the victims, especially the children and their families.
Be pleased to grant healing for the wounded, the release of hostages,
protection for the innocent, and eternal peace to the dead.
To all those affected by war, grant healing, consolation, and the grace to forgive.
Almighty God,
guide the minds of world leaders to act with wisdom, prudence, and justice,
and to promote the common good.
Lord of Justice, help us to commit ourselves to building a fraternal world
so that these peoples and all those suffering similar conditions of
conflict, instability, and violence may walk together as sisters and brothers.
Help us to be peacemakers by practicing justice, dialogue, and reconciliation.
O God of Peace, who are peace itself,
grant that those in conflict may forget evil and so be healed.
Help those who have experienced violence to forgive their enemies,
as Christ taught us and after his example on the cross.
We pray that the whole of humanity may be reconciled as one family,
without violence, without absurd wars, and with a fraternal spirit,
and live united in peace and concord.
Through our Lord Jesus Christ Your Son, who lives and reigns with you
in the unity of the Holy Spirit, God for ever and ever. Amen.
cont:
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine struck Russian airbases deep within Russian occupied Ukraine with ATACMS missiles acquired from the United States
October 18, 2023
Hamas v Israel.
President Biden is in Israel.
Democrat Michigan Rep. Rashida Tlaib's accused Israel of bombing a Christian's hospital in the Gaza stating "Israel just bombed the Baptist Hospital killing 500 Palestinians (doctors, children, patients) just like that," in a tweet.
Israel replied within an hour that Islamic Jihad was responsible for the strike with an errant missile.
China v Taiwan and everyone else
The U.S. has accused China of increasingly dangerous actions with its fighter aircraft.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine made small gains around Bakhmut and Russians tiny gains around Avdiivka.
The US completed deliveries of M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.
October 29, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine raided across the Dnipro near Kherson.
Iran v. United States
October 20, 2023
Hamas v. Israel, Iran v. The West
DOD assets in the Red Sea, Iraq and Syria responded to missile and drone attacks over the past two days, as U.S. service members look to deter groups from using the Israel-Hamas war as an opportunity to launch conflict that could engulf the region, Pentagon Press Secretary Air Force Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said today.
Department of Defense.
Effectively, Iran, often acting through its militias, is in a low grade war with the United States right now.
October 23, 2023
Hamas v. Israel, Iran v. The West
The weekend news shows were absolutely frighting on this topic, this weekend. A bill is being introduced in Congress to authorize the use of force under the War Powers Act, for instance.
October 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War.
The Chinese ship Newnew Polar Bear has entered the Port of Arkhangelsk with a missing anchor. Finnish investigators suspect it lost the anchor by dragging it into the Balticconnector gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia. It will take six months to repair.
cont:
Congo
The Allied Democratic Forces killed people in the city of Oicha in North Kivu province on Monday. The group has ties to the Islamic State.
October 26, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are pursuing a coordinated strategy to (1) deter Israel from trying to destroy Hamas in the Gaza Strip, (2) prevent Israel from destroying Hamas if deterrence fails, and (3) deter the United States from providing military support to Israel’s ground operation in the Gaza Strip.
ISW.
cont:
Russo Ukrainian War
The Administration reports that Russia has executed its own soldiers for refusing to carry out orders.
Hamas v. Israel
Israel killed the deputy head of Hamas’s intelligence directorate, Shadi Barud, in a strike in the Gaza today.
Iranian backed forces have targeted US sites in Israel and Iraq.
October 27, 2023
Iran v US
The US struck two Iranian backed militia sites in Syria in an air raid earlier today.
Hamas v. Israel
Israel has raided into Gaza.
October 28, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Slovakia's right wing populist government is ceasing aid to Ukraine.
Ireland has called for increased European support for Ukraine.
October 29, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
The IDF has entered Gaza.
November 1, 2023
North Korea
North Korea is closing a large number of embassies, apparently due to financial concerns.
Hamas v. Israel
From Yemen's Houthi militia:
Our armed forces launched a large batch of ballistic missiles and a large number of drones at various targets of the Israeli enemy
The Yemeni Armed Forces confirm that this operation is the third operation in support of our oppressed brothers in Palestine and confirm that we will continue to carry out more qualitative strikes with missiles and drones until the Israeli aggression stops.
Egypt’s Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly stated, in response to reports that millions of Palestinians could cross into Egypt, that Egypt was “prepared to sacrifice millions of lives to ensure that no one encroaches upon our territory”.
November 2, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
President Biden has called for a pause in the war to aid in removing refugees. It's unlikely to occur.
Nigeria
Thirty-seven have been killed in a Boko Haram terrorist attack.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated in an essay in The Economist yesterday that the has taken on a positional nature. His article is entitled. "Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It".
It's odd for a commander to write such an op ed during a time of war, but that the war has become static is pretty obvious. This needs to be overcome if Ukraine is to achieve victory. If it does not, Western nations will ultimately lose interest in funding the Ukrainian effort.
November 4, 2023
China v. Everyone
Japan and the Philippines are moving towards a troop cooperation agreement.
November 5, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
According to the ISW:
Zaluzhny’s long essay, “Modern Positional Warfare and How to Win It,” outlines Zaluzhnyi’s consideration of the changes Ukraine must make to overcome the current “positional” stage of the war more clearly than the shorter op-ed and the Economist article it accompanied. Zaluzhnyi wrote that the war “is gradually moving to a positional form” and noted that Ukraine needs to gain air superiority; breach mine barriers in depth; increase the effectiveness of counter-battery; create and train the necessary reserves; and build up electronic warfare (EW) capabilities to overcome positional warfare.[2] Positional warfare refers to military operations that do not result in rapid or dramatic changes to the frontline despite both sides‘ continuing efforts to improve their positions. Zaluzhnyi notably did not say that the war was stalemated in his essay or suggest that Ukraine could not succeed. His essay focused, rather, on explaining that the current positional character of the war was a result of technological-tactical parity on the battlefield and the widespread use of mine barriers by Russian and Ukrainian troops. Zaluzhnyi considered the opportunities presented to Ukraine by Russia’s challenges, including the significant losses suffered by Russian aviation; Ukrainian use of Western missile and artillery weapons; and Russia’s failure to take advantage of its human mobilization resources due to political, organizational, and motivational issues. Zaluzhnyi argued that to avoid World War I-style “trench war” and move to maneuver warfare, Ukraine must develop new approaches including technological and other changes, some of which depend on Western support and others require adaptations within the Ukrainian military, state, and society. Zaluzhnyi concluded that positional warfare benefits Russia as it prolongs the war and could allow Russia to achieve superiority in certain areas. Zaluzhnyi argued that Ukraine or Russia could return to rapid maneuver warfare under the right circumstances, which for Ukraine must include Western-provided military resources. Zaluzhnyi’s essay was all about how to restore maneuver to a positional war, not an argument that the war has reached a stalemate.
November 6, 2023
Hamas v. Israel War
Secretary of State Anthony Blinken engaged in a round of regional shuttle diplomacy yesterday.
The IDF has split the Gaza Strip in two.
November 7, 2023
Sudan
Jihadi militias have murdered over 800 Massalit tribe members in Darfur, Sudan over the past few days. Like their oppressors, the Massalit are Muslims, but they are generally somewhat relaxed in their observance and retain some pre conversion practices in spite of having long been Muslims. Over recent decades they have become more orthodox in their observance.
I frankly don't know what this conflict is about.
November 8, 2023
Hamas v. Israel War
U.S. Rep Rashida Tlaib was censured for her "river to the sea" comment. Tlaib is of Palestinian extraction and has a vocal critic of Israel.
U.S. Rep. Harriet Hageman claimed n a television interview that Palestinian protests in the US were due to Palestinian infiltration of the U.S. government.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian's seem to have crossed the Dnipro in some force and to have ferried armored vehicles across the river.
November 9, 2023
Myanmar
Myanmar has lost control of much of its border with China due to attacks by three ethnic rebel armies in Shan State.
Iran v the West
The U.S. has attacked an Iranian backed militia's weapon storage facility in Syria via the air.
November 10, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Israel agreed to pause its offensive actions periodically for humanitarian reasons but not to provide for a ceasefire or ceasefires.
Headline in the British newspaper The Telegraph:
‘Queers for Palestine’ must have a death wish
Truly.
The Palestinian Authority, the West Bank and Gaza, have one of the world's worst records for intolerance of this topic in the world. Homosexual Palestinians fairly frequently flee to Israel.
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian forces have nearly encircled Avdiivka.
November 12, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Israel has rejected calls for a cease fire and has indicated that it will retain security control of Gaza fater the war.
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian offensive activities in recent days have been resulting in huge casualties to their army.
November 16, 2023
Iran v. the West
The U.S. navy shot down a drone launched from Yemen aimed at a ship yesterday.
November 18, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces have established bridgeheads on the east bank of the Dnipro and are pushing Russian forces back beyond artillery range of the west bank.
November 20, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Houthi rebels have taken a cargo ship in a helicopter raid on the same. They have asserted this is legitimate as the ship had Israeli connections.
November 22, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Israel has agreed to a four-day cease fire for humanitarian reasons. Hostages are to be released during that time period.
Iranian backed militias launched missiles at a US base in Iraq, causing the US to retaliate with an airstrike.
November 23, 2023
India v. Sikh separatists.
The US has announced that it foiled a plot on the life of a Sikh seperatist living in the US. A successful attempt on the life of a Sikh figure in Canada has lead to tension between those two countries. India denies being involved.
November 25, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
A prisoner exchange (Palestinian prisoners for Israeli and multinational hostages) took place yesterday as scheduled. Twenty four hostages were releaed, including 13 Israelis, 10 Thai citizens, and one Filipino citizen.
December 1, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Fighting has resumed.
Last Prior Edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part X, Declarations
Related threads:
The Palestinian Problem and its Wilsonian Solution.
Hamas v. Israel. Some observations, and How did we get here?
Tuesday, November 28, 2023
Sunday, November 29, 1943. The Tehran Conference starts.
The Tehran Conference commenced in Iran between Franklin Roosevelt, Winston Churchill and Joseph Stalin.
Tehran was chosen as Stalin was reluctant, for legitimate reasons, to leave the USSR. Roosevelt had tried to have him travel to Cairo, but he had refused.
The USSR's Council of People's Commissars issued Resolution 1325 creating a Department of Russian Orthodox Christian Affairs. It provided for a process to open new churches, and while that was progress, the process was a difficult one.
The Kolari Raid on Bougainville, which would end quickly in failure, was commenced by the Marines.
From Sarah Sundin's blog, today is the founding day for the Alamo Scouts. The independent unit of the 6th Army served in New Guinea.
Alamo Scouts in 1944.
Friday, November 17, 2023
The 2024 Election, Part VIII. Speeding toward the missing bridge
One Year Until The General Election.
Ugh, there's a time when that would have seen like a long time.
And it still should. Would that it would have been only 90 days prior to an election that anyone could even announce.
A full year of watching the clock count down.
A full year of pundits like Robert Reich telling you can't vote for a third party, and must vote for one of the two absurdities that are the current majority parties.
A full year of bizarro weird diction from Donald Trump.
A full year of two really old men compete for the votes of voter less than half their ages.
Nifty.
November 6, 2023
The latest polls show Trump beating Biden in the Fall election.
Simply amazing.
It'll all come down to five states, and about 100,000 voters, who will decide which of the two ancient men will lead the most powerful, if declining, nation on earth.
Both, FWIW, are showing signs of cognitive decline. This has been obvious for a while, but it was mentioned in regard to Trump for the first time on one of the weekend news shows. He's now getting noticeably confused and increasingly erratic.
Regarding cognitive decline, the fact that these are the nation's choices make it appear as the United States itself is suffering from cognitive decline.
While there will be plenty of it "it's not too late" comments, it pretty much is unless the Democrats dump Biden. The electorate doesn't want him, or Trump. And yet the parties insist on offering both of them. At least with the GOP, it's because their base really does want Trump, as frightening as that is. The Democrats do not want Biden.
November 8, 2023
And yet another poll shows Biden slipping further behind, even as the Democrats did well in yesterday's election.
If Biden isn't replaced as the candidate, there will be a second Trump term.
November 9, 2023
Donald Trump, yesterday:
Kim Jong-un leads 1.4 billion people, and there's no doubt about who the boss is, and they want me to say he's not an intelligent man.
Geez Louise, this is wrong in so many ways.
First of all, 1.4 B is the approximate population of China. North Korea has about 24M.
And nobody is saying that Kim Jong-un isn't intelligent, they're saying he's bad.
Trump has a thing for dictators. . .
During the GOP debate, one of the candidates proposed bombing targets in Iran.
cont:
Joe Manchin will not be running for reelection to the Senate in West Virginia.
Manchin was quite conservative, a fact which had given him a power broker role in the Senate. His departure, while not wholly unexpected, does put the GOP within striking distance of taking back the Senate.
November 10, 2023
Jill Stein has opted to lose again as the Green Party's candidate for President.
November 13, 2023
Tim Scott has dropped out of the GOP race.
In terms of serious candidates, that leaves Haley, Christie, DeSantis, and of course, Trump. There are others, but they're already reached the point of now return. The winnowing process is now well-developed.
Overall in the Republican race right now, the following are the serious candidates in terms of still (sort of) being contenders against Trump.
Trump.
Doug Burgum
Chris Christie
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Asa Hutchinson
Of the above, Hutchinson should drop out, as his campaign is gaining no traction and is essentially the same as Christie's. Burgum should drop out as well as his campiagn has generated little interest, mostly due to his own waffling on Trump.
GOP candidates still around that nobody is paying any attention to are:
Scott Alan Ayers
Ryan Binkley
Robert S. Carney
John Anthony Castro
Peter Jedick
Perry Johnson
Perry Johnson
Donald Kjornes
Mary Maxwell
Glenn McPeters
Glenn J. McPeters
Scott Peterson Merrell
Darius L. Mitchell
Vivek Ramaswamy
Sam Sloan
David Stuckenberg
Rachel Swift
Of these, only Ramaswamy is newsworthy, but most due to his being noisy and somewhat of a gadfly. So, in terms of real candidates, what the GOP actually has is:
Trump.
Doug Burgum
Chris Christie
Ron DeSantis
Nikki Haley
Asa Hutchinson
Vivek Ramaswamy
On the Democratic side, there are actually just about as many people running, but really only Biden and Dean Phillips are serious candidates. . . so far.
While it'll put me outside the mainstream, I very strongly suspect that Joe Manchin and Joe Biden have had a conversation about Biden dropping out, and Manchin stepping in.
Manchin is in his early 70s, which is still old, but younger than Trump. He's also a bonafide centrist. Liberal Democrats would hate this development, centrist Democrats, independents and traditional Republicans would welcome it. It would be a smart move. Right now, I'm predicting, as radical as it is, that Biden will drop out this month, followed by Manchin announcing a run.
In other news, Californian Republican House member McCarthy is indicating he may not run for reelection.
November 14, 2023
Apparently a retired lawyer has filed a 14th Amendment challenge to Trump, and oddly Cynthia Lummis who doesn't run again until 2026, in court. Secretary Gray sent out a press release on the matter.
Secretary Gray Condemns Attempt to Remove Donald Trump and Cynthia Lummis from Future Ballots in Wyoming
CHEYENNE, WY – In response to a recent filing in Wyoming District Court seeking to remove Donald Trump and Cynthia Lummis (whose term ends in 2026) from future ballots in Wyoming, Wyoming Secretary of State Chuck Gray announced his plans to vigorously defend against the filing (Newcomb v. Chuck Gray).
“The attempt to remove Donald Trump and Cynthia Lummis from the ballot is outrageously wrong and repugnant to our electoral process,” Secretary Gray said in a statement. “I am preparing a vigorous defense to stop these blatant, radical attempts to interfere with Wyoming’s elections. The weaponization of the Fourteenth Amendment to remove political opponents from the ballot undermines the sanctity of the Constitution. We are preparing to file a motion to dismiss to block this attempt at election interference. And we are committed to protecting the integrity of our elections and ensuring that the people of Wyoming can choose who to elect for themselves.”
November 15, 2023
A Michigan Court has rejected a 14th Amendment claim against Trump. It will be appealed.
November 17, 2023
Rep. Hageman went after Tim Newcomb's lawsuit regarding Trump being disqualified from being on the ballot for insurrection.
This isn't really surprising, Hageman is in political debt to Trump, but it's interesting in that she partially attacks the effort as unconstitutional and for using the legal system. Attempting to use the legal system is exactly what Trump attempted in order to try to retain office, and Trumpites have continually taken refuge in that fact.
Last Prior Edition:
The 2024 Election, Part VII. Drama
Saturday, October 28, 2023
Sunday, October 28, 1923. Ziegner clashes, Reza Khan rises
Saxon Premier Erich Zeigner rejected Weimar's demand that Communists be dismissed from his cabinet.
Reza Khan became prime minister of Iran. The existing Shah, whom he would ultimately replace, went into voluntary exile and Khan would become the first of two Shah's of Iran. An ally of the British, he was well on his rise to power at this time.
The Submarine USS O-5 struck a United Fruit Company steamship in the Panama Canal Zone and sank.
Tuesday, October 24, 2023
The largest? The Hamas v. Israel War.
I have now heard over and over in the press that the upcoming Israeli invasion is the "largest" this or that, suggesting that this is the biggest war, or the biggest deployment of troops, in Israel's history.
Is it?
Well, you have to have a sense of history to gauge that.
I've recently been running some items on the Yom Kippur War, which occured 50 years ago, and which brought the United States and the Soviet Union to the brink of war. That pitted about 400,000 Israeli troops against the armies of Egypt and Syria, plus another 100,000 troops from other regional states. Right at about 1,000,000 Arab troops contested the Israelis.
Now, in this one, we do hear that 300,000 IDF reservists have been called up, and yes, that's a bunch. The total number of mass Israeli troops may exceed those that were hastily called up in 1973. We'll see. But the scope of the contest is, so far, smaller. Indeed, the calling up of the reservists may be in the hopes of keeping it smaller.
In the Six Day War, Israel had 264,000 troops, but only deployed 100,000 of them. The Arab forces had over 500,000 troops, but only deployed about 250,000 of them.
Israel isn't going to send all of is troops into Gaza. A lot of those troops were likely called up in order to secure its northern border. Assuming that it invades Gaza with this model, it certainly will not be Israel's largest war, but it might mean the largest overall manpower size for the IDF in its history.
Not that the threat of this being much larger doesn't exist. Iran seems intent on making it so.
Tuesday, October 17, 2023
Reality and platitudes.
Years ago, mostly on neo-hippy cars, I'd see bumper stickers that said; "Free Tibet". The same cars would be festooned and bedecked with all sorts of liberal stickers, such as "Save the whales" and the like.
In the real world freeing Tibet would take a military effort of gigantic proportions, if not an outright nucelar war.
You can choose to deal with reality, but anyway you look at it, reality is going to deal with you.
There's a lot of unrealistic thinking going on regarding the current Hamas Israel War outside the country.
One thing that we're seeing a lot of are pleas that Israel not do anything that harms average Palestinians. More sophisticated thinkers, which most of these people are not, would argue the law of proportionality, which is that a violent armed effort against you does not invite a disproportionate response.
To put it uncomfortably for Americans, the Japanese attacking a U.S. Navy installation at Pearl Harbor does not invite murdering thousands of people through a nuclear device.
Having said that, nations, like people, have a right to self-defense, and Hamas clearly intends to murder the Jews in Israel.
They have to address that, and therefore they have to address Hamas. That means they have to go into Gaza and that action will kill civilians no matter what.
The real world.
I'm glad that I'm not the one who has to try to balance the moral scale here. Some will argue that the solution is to drive the Palestinians out of Gaza, but that would be wrong. Some would argue that the solution is to resume the administration of Gaza to preclude it from reviving as a terrorist enclave. Is that wrong?
And in terms of right and wrong, it's interesting how the appeal is largely from people in Christian societies regarding a largely Islamic society. Overall, concerns that the response will be disproportionate came from Christians, Christian influenced people, and Jews. There isn't very much Islamic concern about proportionality. Rather, it's "we've been occupied . . . " which is an accusation against an Israeli punitive action by a terrorist intervention done on their behalf, which they seem reluctant at best to disavow. On the ground, Islamic societies aren't doing anything obvious to make this better. They aren't opening their borders to Palestinians impacted by the war. Iran is threatening to "become involved" in the war which they went a long ways to helping bring about.
None of this is a reason not to be concerned, let alone to pray for peace, but it's also not a excuse to consider the grim realities of this sitaution.
Sunday, October 8, 2023
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part IX, Late Summer.
September 15, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Vasily Popov, commander of the Russian 247th Guard Air Assault Regiment, was killed in a counter-attack in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia area.
The European Parliament adopted a resolution recognizing Belarusian President Lukashenko as complicit in Russian crimes and called upon the International Criminal Court to issue a warrant for his arrest.
The Duma proposed blocking WhatsApp as part of the Kremlin’s effort to control the Russian information space.
cont:
Pro Russian Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov is critically ill.
September 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces liberated Andriivka near Bakhmut.
September 19, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Six Ukrainian deputy defense ministers were fired on Monday as part of an ongoing cleanup of corruption in the Ukrainian defense department.
Post Soviet Union Ukraine has been plagued with corruption, as has post Soviet Union Russia. This is no surprise, as the Soviet system encouraged corruption by its very nature, and so that post Soviet societies would feature a lot of it is to be expected.
Ironically, this fact has led opponents of supporting Ukraine, which is democratic and is fighting a just fight, to cite the corruption as a reason to allow the country to be conquered by Russia, although they don't put it that way. While the country has featured a lot of corruption, Russia's is now endemic and currently not only that case, but watching modern Russia is a lot like watching Goodfellas in real time.
Following 2013's Euromaiden protest, the country has moved increasingly towards the west and has had a strong desire to join the European Union and NATO. That is what has, in no small part, brought the current war about, as Putin, a Russian nationalist at heart, is opposed to that and sees Ukraine as a mere Russian province. Efforts to join NATO have lead to a list of further items Ukraine must address in order to do so, once the war is over, and cleaning up corruption will no doubt continue.
The ISW is giving praise to Ukrainian offensive efforts near Bakhmut, which it cites as having kept Russian forces committed in that area, leaving the Russians unable to reinforce further south. It's reporting that Russian forces in both areas are suffering severe degradation.
Iran v. Kurds
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard has deployed unis to the border with Iraq in an effort to put pressure on Iraq to arrest Kurdish efforts in Iran.
Iran messes heavily in regional conflicts, taking an active pro-government role in Syria for example. Here, however, the war in Syria and the conclusion of the war in Iraq has led to Kurdish semi autonomy, which has in turn lead to Kurdish activity in northern Iran.
cont:
Azerbaijan v. Armenia
Azerbaijan’s declared an “anti-terrorist” campaign in Nagorno-Karabakh region, which is under Armenian control. Armenian media indicated air raid sirens and mortar fire in the regional capital of Stepanakert had been observed.
Armenian forces recently trained with U.S. forces.
September 21, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Prime Minister of Poland has announced; "We are no longer transferring any weapons to Ukraine because we are now arming ourselves with the most modern weapons".
Poland and Ukraine have been in a dispute over grain, which has been flooding the Polish market as Ukraine's ports have been blocked, even while Poland has been a major supporter of Ukraine's war effort.
In spite of the way it's been portrayed, historically Poland and Ukraine have not gotten along and following World War One fought over their respective borders. During World War Two, Ukrainian nationalist militias committed acts of genocide against Polish villagers. The recent Polish support of Ukraine may reflect Polish animosity towards Russia as much as anything else.
U.S. Senator Rand Paul, who is a libertarian with isolationist tendencies, is holding up the most recent funding for Ukraine.
What both of these stories point out is that the slow moving progress of the Ukrainian offensive, while receiving support from some analysts such as those from the ISW, presents real problems in terms of ongoing Western support. Ukraine's strategy, from those supporting it, is reputed to be a slow moving offensive using artillery to attrit Russian forces, made necessarily in part by a lack of air assets. That may be correct, but if it is, Ukraine may find itself with decreasing material support from the West including the United States should the U.S. far right gain in Congress.
Wagner is withdrawing from Syria.
Cont:
German Marder AFV, some of which appear to be beyond prepared Russian lines.
Ukrainian light armor appears to have pushed through Russian lines near Bakhmut, which would be significant, if substantial and correct. Indeed, the fact that there are reports of this is significant as it would suggest Russian forces must be very downgraded in the area.
American Stryker AFV, some of which have also been reported having passed Russian prepared defenses.
September 22, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was killed today by a Ukrainian missile/drone attack on the Black Sea Fleet's Sevastopol headquarters.
September 23, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Poland walked back its earlier statement about not transferring arms to Ukraine, indicating that what was meant that new arms it is acquiring for itself will not be transferred.
September 24, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
According to ISW, the Ukrainian Army has broken through Russian field fortifications west of Verbove in western Zaporizhia Oblast. This is not, however, the final Russian defensive line.
September 25, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian forces are attacking north of Verbove appear to be close to surrounding the 56th VDV Regiment deployed in Novofedorivka.
September 26, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Ukrainian Special Operations Forces reported on September 25 that a precision Ukrainian strike on the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet (BSF) in occupied Sevastopol, Crimea, on September 22 killed 34 Russian officers, including BSF Commander Admiral Viktor Sokolov.
Azerbaijan v. Armenia
Armenia effectively surrendered, and the subject enclave will be abandoned. Armenia is blaming Russia for its peacekeeping forces being ineffective.
US v. ISIL
The U.S. announced the capture of ISIL official Abu Halil al-Fad'ani in a raid in northern Syria.
September 27, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Russian Navy Admiral Sokolov, the Commander of Black Sea Fleet, was in fact not killed on the Ukrainian missile strike on the HQ of the Black Sea Fleet.
A Russian drone strike cut the ferry ties between Ukraine and Romania.
September 30, 2023
Armenia v. Azerbaijan
Almost the entire population of the ethnic Armenian enclave Nagorno-Karabakh, some 100,000 people, have since Azerbaijan seized the region last week.
October 1, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The emergency stopgap bill to fund the U.S. government for 45 days omits funds for Ukraine.
October 5, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukrainian drone attacks now occur inside of Russia daily. Two Russian cargo jets were destroyed at the Russian air base at Pskov yesterday, with the Russians claiming that the attacks were launched from inside of Russian territory.
Ukrainians have carried out a second commando raid on Crimea. The Russian navy has pulled out of Sevastopol and dispersed.
October 6, 2023
Syrian Civil War
A drone attack on a military graduation ceremony in the Syrian Homs, killed 80 and wounded 240. Some civilians were amongst the casualties.
China v. Everyone
A Chinese nuclear submarine is reported to have been caught in a Chinese submarine net last December, resulting in its sinking and the loss of the entire crew.
October 7, 2023
Hamas v. Israel
Hamas launched a large scale offensive against Israel yesterday, sending both ground forces and rockets across the border. Israel has termed it a war and has called up reservists.
Russo Ukrainian War
Ukraine has deployed snipers overseas against Wagner forces.
October 8, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Belarusian leader Lukashenko stated to newsmen last week, "I have to say that Zelensky is acting absolutely appropriately", a surprising statement from a Russian ally.
Hamas v. Israel
Russia bizarrely called for a ceasefire between the warring parties.
Civilian casualties are about equal so far, each standing at about 250 persons. Hamas took hostages back into Israel.
Last prior edition:
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part VIII. The high cost of freedom.
Sunday, March 19, 2023
Wednesday, March 19, 2003. The Second Gulf War Commences
F15E over Iraq.
The United States and a coalition of Allies, including its principal western allies, on this day in 2003, commenced operations against Iraq. The war commenced with air operations.
The causa belli of the undeclared war was Iraq's lack of cooperation with weapons inspectors.
President Bush went on the air and stated:
At this hour, American and coalition forces are in the early stages of military operations to disarm Iraq, to free its people and to defend the world from grave danger.
Congress is just now considering a bill to deauthorize military force in Iraq, which at this point would be more symbolic than anything else.
The initial invasion went well and swiftly, but the war yielded to a post-war, war, against Islamic insurgents that lasted until 2011. Iraq has remained unstable, but not Baathist, and it has retained democracy, although frequently only barely. Iran has gained influence in the country, which has a large Shiia population, which was not expected.
The war remains legally problematic in that it was a full scale invasion of a foreign power with no declaration of war, setting it apart from any post World War Two war, with perhaps the exception of the war in Afghanistan, that had that feature but lacked such a declaration. At least arguably it was illegal for that reason. Amongst other things, Art 1, Section 8, of the Constitution provides that Congress has the power to:
To declare War, grant Letters of Marque and Reprisal, and make Rules concerning Captures on Land and Water;
Presidents are the commanders in chief of the armed forces, and in Washington's day actually took to the field with it, so it would not be correct to assume that only Congress can deploy troops, even into harm's way. But full scale wars. . . that seems pretty exclusively reserved to Congress.
The war also came while the U.S. was already fighting, albeit at a low level, in Afghanistan, and the Iraq episode would prove to be a distraction from it, leading in no small part to that first war ended, twenty years later, inconclusively.
The war redrew the political map of the Middle East, which it was intended to do, so to that extent it was at least a partial success, although it took much longer than expected. It's effect on the national deficit, discussed this past week by NPR, is staggering and the nation still is nowhere near paying for it, something that will have very long term consequences for the nation going forward, and providing a reason, amongst others, that undeclared wars should not really be engaged in. Congress, for its part, simply chose not to debate the topic in that context, an abrogation of its duty, although it did authorize military action in another form.
The war contributed to the rise of ISIL, which was later put down. It increased Syrian instability, which has yet to be fully addressed.
It also contributed to a rising tide of military worship in the US, while ironically would be part of the right wing reaction to "forever wars" that gave rise to Donald Trump.
One of only two wars, the other being the First Gulf War, initiated by a Republican President since World War Two, the war had huge initial support from the left and the right, something that many of the same people who supported it later conveniently forgot.
Friday, March 3, 2023
The Lord's Prayer in Farsi.
Ei pedarema, ke dar asman ast:
nameto moghaddas bad.
Malakuteto beayad.
Eradateto chonan dar asman ast bar zamin nafez bad.
Naneruzineyemara dar in ruz bema bebakhsh.
Va an chonan ke gharzdaranekhodra mibakhshim,
gharzhayemara bema bebakhsh.
Va mara dar ma'razeazmayesh
nayavar, balke az sharir khalasi deh.
Zira ke molk va ghodrat va jalal ta abad az aneto 'st
Tuesday, January 31, 2023
Wars and Rumors of War, 2023. The Bear and the Trident. The Russo Ukrainian War crosses the calendar year.
South Korean M48s. There are large numbers of these and M60s that are upgradable to a state sufficiently advanced to take on the Russian armor. The Ukrainians should be given them. I'm not the only one to suggest this.
A new year, a new thread, for new and old wars and rumors of war.
I posted the photograph above from 1986 to make a point, one that I was making I thought alone for a while, but now I've seen elsewhere.
The US has vast quantifies of mid Cold War era material that is still useful and could still go overseas to aid Ukraine. This equipment was built to fight the Soviets, just as the junky stuff the Russians use was built to fight us. It may not be our current standard, but it's there and if we're not going to use it now, we probably never will, unless we fear that a ground war with China is imminent and will be so bad, we'll need this stuff.
Having said that, by this point, Ukraine is well on its way toward having much more modern equipment, both in the form of latest generation Russian captured equipment, and material that NATO has supplied.
If Ukraine is going to win this war, in my view, at this point, it needs to launch a successful winter campaign and that's going to be equipment consuming. Moreover, in order to get Russia to the negotiating table, at this point, I think they'll need to recapture all of their lost territory and enter Russia's Rostov Oblast and advance to the Don.
January 1, 2023.
Russo-Ukrainian War
Vladimir Putin's New Year's address indicated no sign of a willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, while President Zelenskyy's praised his people for their stalwart defense of their country. There is no reason to believe that the war will end soon, or that Russia is ready to give up in spite of its battlefield defeats. Indeed, irrespective of them, it has not exhausted its resources and, with no real democratic input into the war, Putin can afford to keep it running.
Ukraine can afford to keep it running as well, as long as the West remains in its corner. With the U.S. Congress turning over and Republicans taking control of the House, there's some reason to believe that things will get more difficult for Ukraine. In the Senate, Mitch McConnell has been a strong backer of Ukraine. Ukraine lost a strong backer in Liz Cheney, and the new crop of Republicans includes many of the Trumpist isolationist strain who set the US on the road to retreat in Afghanistan. So far, self-declared Republican Kevin McCarthy has pledged to keep backing Ukraine, but to keep a more careful eye on the assets going there, showing McCarthy's knack for spitting the baby, maybe. For that matter, McCarthy may not be ascending to the lofty heights he's been aiming for.
Republicans barely control the House, of course, and not all Republicans are isolationist or Trumpists.
January 5, 2023.
Ukraine is claiming that Russia has sustained 10,000 combat deaths in the last two weeks, a remarkable figure if true.
Russia has deployed new ship launched missiles to the Atlantic.
Putin has declared a ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas. Orthodox Christmas is on January 7. Interestingly, in Ukraine, the country generally celebrates Christmas on the Gregorian Calendar, which of course has already occurred, with the Orthodox celebrating the religious holiday on the Julian Calendar, which this year is on January 7. The Russian ceasefire declaration is interesting in that one of the declared purposes of the Russian invasion was to defend Orthodoxy, and the dual nature of the Ukrainian celebration somewhat demonstrates its drift to the West. Of course, Catholic Ukrainians already celebrate the religious and civil holiday on the same day.
January 6, 2023
Kyiv rejected Putin's proposal for a truce over Orthodox Christmas.
France is sending AMX-10s to Ukraine. Contrary to the way this tends to be reported, they are not tanks, but very heavy armored cars. They are also a fully modern weapon, so their provision as an armored fighting vehicle is significant.
January 8, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The war has oddly begun to resemble the First World War in some ways, with localized actions that measure success in feet and yards, rather than miles.
The Russians, deploying the mercenary Wagner Group, have been struggling to take Bakhmut which some Ukrainian sources reported as surrounded yesterday. ISW, which is highly reliable, reports that it is not. Indeed, they reported the claim as "bizarre".
Iran
While continuing to suffer a state of near internal insurrection, Iran continues to project its power outwards. Here's an interesting development:
January 9, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians claimed to hit and cause casualties on a Ukrainian training facility yesterday, in retaliation for the Ukrainian hit of a building used by Russians that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers.
This is an example of the bizarrely petulant and childish attitude that the Russians have had throughout this war, in which they complain about actions taken by their enemy that are well within the law of war. Explaining this is difficult.
January 10, 2023
Fierce fighting is occurring between Ukrainian forces and Wagner mercenaries near Soledar and Bakhmut. Wagner is promoting their role in this, but while they are in fact fighting well, for very limited objectives, they're taking massive casualties.
January 12, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians are engaging in high level command shakeups.
There is speculation that shakeups are occurring as Putin is dissatisfied with results, as he should be, but is doubling down on his view that Ukraine can be taken by force. If this is correct, and there's good reason to believe that it is, the war is nowhere near close to being concluded and a major Russian spring offensive will be attempted.
There's also speculation that a serious struggle is going on inside Russian circles over the role of the Wagner group, which is pushing, much like the SS did during World War Two, to achieve official status as an "elite" Russian unit, rather than a mercenary group. Not surprisingly, the Russian army doesn't like this possibility, while the Wagner Group is angling for it, in part by popularizing its ongoing bloody operations.
Regarding that, those operations appear to explain the recruiting from jails done by the mercenary organization earlier. These troops are being used like German and Soviet penal formations were in World War Two, with their purpose to sap enemy strength at the likely cost of their own lives. Ukrainians noted earlier their high death rate and, among those captured, how many had serious diseases such as AIDS. Their combat survivability likely is irrelevant to the Russians, as they're using up Ukrainian munitions. This may be true to some degree of hastily deployed conscripts as well, although the Russians have to be more careful about them.
Mali
Fourteen Malian soldiers were killed and 11 wounded in two attacks in regions where Al-Qaeda aligned forces are operative.
January 13, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians took Soledar yesterday.
Update:
Coat of arms for Soledar
How big of a city is that?
Well, it had a population of about 10,000 before the war. It's known for its former salt mine, which was apparently large, and there's some fear that the mine could be of use for infiltration. Chances are that the mine is mined.
January 15, 2022
Russo Ukrainian War
By Photo: Cpl Russ Nolan RLC/MOD, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26907562
The UK will be supplying Challenger 2 tanks, a fully modern western, third generation, main battle tank, to Ukraine.
The initial number is only 12, which isn't enough to do anything with, but presumably it will end up being more than that. Ukraine has been asking for modern Western tanks for months.
Russian forces staged in Belarus rocketed targets in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast and then later launched sea-based Kalibr, and Kh-59 guided air missiles.
I wasn't aware that Belarus was allowing its territory to be used in this fashion. This presents an added complication for Ukraine as while it now hits Russian targets in Russia, Russia is also using Belorussian territory for missile attacks.
January 16, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
It's now widely expected that Russia will be launching a new large-scale conventional offensive.
This means that a type of race is now on, with the obvious one being can the Western nations sufficiently arm and train Ukraine to stave off a new Russian offensive which it must be presumed will be very large and much less inept than the original one, which Russia launched believing that its efforts couldn't fail.
Russia can't afford to lose the next one.
The second race, maybe, might be for Ukraine to launch an offensive first. If Russia has to commit to the defense before it can launch an offensive, it might hold that offensive off and cause an already damaged Putin administration more trouble.
January 19, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
Germany, having moved up, again, to the brink of allowing nations with surplus Leopard 2 tanks, or making use of its own surplus, has pulled back again.
Time and time again, Germany has indicated that it was considering or about to provide or allow Leopard 2s to go to Ukraine, only to back out. This seems to have occurred again, as it's now indicating that it will provide Leopard 2s if the US provides M1 Abrams tanks.
There is a certain logic to this, but it's also done knowing that the US is unlikely to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine. Symbolically, it's probably a bridge too far for the US as the Abrams is generally regarded as the most advanced tank in the world and one that was designed to take on and defeat Soviet armor in a largescale war. In other worlds, it comes a bit too close to the US nearly being in the war itself, and Germany knows this.
Having said this, Leopard 2s were built for the same purpose. And so were Challenger 2s, the latter of which is probably every bit as good as the Abrams.
The Leopard 2 isn't, which presents its own problems. There's been some speculation that Germany hasn't provided the tank as it will show that Germany's think skinned armor thesis which influenced German tank designs post World War Two was wrong, because it was wrong. In combat with Russian tanks it may well prove to be inferior, in least in terms of crew protection.
This does bring up, again, the M60s (and maybe M48s). The last variant of the M60 was a very modern tanks and it would be relatively easy to upgrade the massive number of M60s and supply them to Ukraine. A counter proposal could be made to supply something like 500 M60s if the Germans spring the Leopard 2s. Of course, this isn't what Ukraine is seeking, as they want the most modern variant of main battle tank.
January 21, 2023
Russia has installed air defense systems in Moscow.
Ukraine is not going to attack Moscow, so the question is whether this is a species of extreme cautiousness, paranoia, or theater.
January 23, 2023
Leopard 2 tank.
Under a tremendous amount of pressure, Germany has indicated it will not preclude Poland from shipping Leopard 2s to Ukraine.
Over the weekend a member of Congress urged the U.S. to supply M1 Abrams to Ukraine, stating that modern armor would be necessary to take on an anticipated Russian offensive this winter. This may indicate a move towards supplying Ukraine with M1s.
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M1 Abrams.
January 24, 2023
From the New York Times:
The U.S. plans to send
M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, officials said, a big step in arming Kyiv in its
efforts to seize back territory from Russia.
|
|
Tuesday,
January 24, 2023 5:40 PM ET |
|
The White
House is expected to announce a decision as early as Wednesday, said the
officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. One official said the number
of Abrams tanks could be between 30 and 50. |
Janaury 25, 2023
The dam appears to have broken and now Germany will be sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine. Poland will follow.
Western analysits attribute the slow provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine as a major factor that is keeping Ukraine from defeating Russia.
We seem to have reached a new point in the war. Now, that has changed.
January 26, 2023
Thirty one.
That's the number of M1 Abrams tanks that the U.S. promised to Ukraine. Only around 14 Leopard 2s are going to be sent by Germany, and 80 by other European allies. The British are sending 12 Challengers.
Ukraine asked for 300 modern main battle tanks.
A combined total of a little under 140 won't cut it, particularly of mixed models, and the M1s won't be delivered for months, most likely well after the anticipated Russian spring offensive.
We have thousands of idle M60s that can upgraded. We could likely provide over 300 M60A3s within weeks, some within days.
Send the M60s.
There are reports that the Wagner Group may take punitive action against its own members for retreating in battle, with at least one report that they castrated a soldier for doing so.
January 26, 2023, cont
The US indicated today that it does not have the spare inventory to send M1A2 from its own stocks, so apparently the Ukrainian ones will be new General Dynamics production.
Ukraine may not have the time to spare.
We should; 1) take 50 out of our own stocks. We're not going to be going to war, no matter how cautious we may feel we need to be, and 2) we should send 500 M60s.
The M60s could be there soon.
January 27, 2023
Somalia
Al Shabaab achieved a major tactical victory in central Somalia, taking a base used by US-trained special forces.
Also in the country, U.S. Special forces killed ISIL leader Bilal al Sudani in a raid.
January 27, 2023, cont.
Russo Ukrainian War
In a statement that can only charitably be referred to as bizarre, former President Donald Trump tweeted, or whatever it is called on "Truth Social" that if he were President he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. A Russian spokesman, taking the position that he could "instruct" Kyiv on what to do, endorsed the statement.
I think it can be safely assumed that Trump would not have intervened to save Ukraine, and would not now. He clearly cannot "instruct" it to do anything.
Statements like this should cause people to wonder about the level of narcissism the former President displays and cannot help, at least in some quarters, cause speculation on why Trump is so in love with Putin. It is, truly, bizarre.
January 29, 2023
Russo Ukrainian War
The Russians reported took 5,000 combat deaths last week.
At this point, it appears that they're relieving the Wagner Group, which has been engaged at Bakhmut in high casualty attacks. Russian airborne is apparently replacing the mercenary troops.
Ukrainian sources report that 300 Wagner Group wounded were taken to a hospital in Yuvlineyvy but they were refused treatment due to having AIDs, syphilis, tuberculosis and pneumonia. Of the 50,000 Wagner recruits from prisons, only 10,000 now remain, the rest having been killed, wounded or deserted. Just a couple of weeks ago there was serious speculation that the Wagner Group would supplant the Army in some fashion, much like the SA tried to do with the pre-war German Heer, but now it appears it's basically being pulled from combat, although it may have served its purpose by being a sponge for Ukrainian munitions.
The Russians have been making small gains.
Ukraine has asked for long range missiles, which would clearly express an intent to hit targets inside of Russia.
North Korea declared the US promise to deliver M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine an "unethical crime", which begs the question of what an "ethical" crime would be.
January 29, cont:
Iran
Iranian drone manufacturing facilities were hit. . . by drones.
Nobody has taken responsibility but it seems certain they were Israel carried out the attacks. Iran is claiming there was no damage which means there was damage.
Ukraine did a little gloating over this, which is merited.
January 31, 2023
Pakistan
A sucide bombing killeed 59 people, mostly police officers, in Peshwar. It was not immediately apparent who was responsible. The Taliban claimed responsiblity at first, and then denied responsibility.
Israel-Iran
Israel hit Iranian backed militia targets in Syria on January 29 and 30 in air strikes.
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