In an Epic Battle of Tanks, Russia Was Routed, Repeating Earlier Mistakes

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023, Part 2. The Gathering Storm.

We're only on to Feb 1 and already on to the second edition of this thread for 2023.

The reason is simple enough, the last version is already so long that certain features, such as the spell check, aren't working for new entries.  It's easier and more convenient to put up a second edition.

The big news remains, of course, the war in Ukraine.  Now a year old, the drama saw an anticipated Russian walk over turn into a monumentally expensive military disaster, with the Russians suffering battlefield defeats and being pushed out of much of what they'd taken in the first weeks of the war.  

Right now, the battlefield is nearly static, recalling the long stretches of World War One where neither side had the ability to defeat the other.  What seems to be really going on, however, is that the Russians have taken a page out of the Soviet Union's playbook and have been buying time with bodies, sending in convicts and conscripts to soak up Ukrainian munitions while they build towards a resumed offensive which is expected to start soon.

The Ukrainians know this, and are trying to prepare for it.  Part of that preparation is the acquisition of modern Western heavy weapons, which have not yet been provided to them. Western military analysts have been critical of the West for this, but frankly, early in the war nobody saw the Ukrainians being in the position they now are in.  

So a race is on, in which the West scrambles to provide modern main battle tanks, and Ukraine asks for any new system, including F-16s, which it thinks it can get and needs, against a Russian build up based on lessons learned and a larger army.

What should be clear is this.  Putin cannot negotiate, at least not unless he fears a disaster that will remove him from office completely.  Ukraine cannot give in.  It's easy to figure out what a Russian victory would be, but harder to figure out how Ukraine can force a battlefield conclusion.

Having said that, Ukraine might be able to push Russia out of Ukraine entirely, and if I were their strategist, which I'm not, advance across the frontier to the western bank of the Don, which would give the country some security and perhaps something to cause a coup in Russia.  But if they are going to do so, they'll have to achieve that in the next several months as it fights a country whose population has 100,000,000 more souls than it does.

Slava Ukraini.

February 1, 2023, continued:

An announcement from the Canadian government:

Today, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau spoke with the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

The Prime Minister expressed Canada’s ongoing solidarity with the Ukrainian people as they continue to fight Russia’s brutal invasion while facing Russian strikes on civilian targets. The two leaders discussed Ukraine’s military, humanitarian, and financial needs, as well as the recent announcements of significant new support to Ukraine. They also spoke about how Canada and like-minded partners could continue working together to meet Ukraine’s needs due to Russia’s ongoing illegal and unprovoked invasion.

The Prime Minister and the President talked about the upcoming somber anniversary of Russia’s invasion on February 24, and the Prime Minister reaffirmed Canada’s support for Ukraine for as long as it takes. Prime Minister Trudeau welcomed President Zelenskyy’s diplomatic efforts toward a just peace, and the two leaders discussed ongoing engagement with the Global South.

The leaders agreed to remain in close and regular contact.

Canada recently announced it would send four Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, out of an inventory of 112, of which 82 are the combat model and the rest an engineering model.

A couple of things.

The Canadian Army doesn't have a lot of tanks, but its only really likely to need its tanks if Ukraine goes down in defeat and Russia turns its gaze on other territory it once ruled.  Regarding Leopard 2 tanks in general, the British paper the Guardian notes:

There are over 2,300 Leopard 2 tanks available or in storage in 13 Nato countries, according to the IISS, whereas there are only 227 Challenger 2 tanks in the British entire army.

2,300.

The Ukrainians are basically asking for about 300, or at least 100.

There's plenty of them around, although some countries, the Guardian notes, have let theirs deteriorate to such a state they're pretty much unusable. Spain is in that category.

The US has 2,300 M60s in storage. They're not being used at all.  A lot of them are probably not serviceable, but a lot of them could be made serviceable.

Also, Justin Trudeau came into office with a pledge to withdraw Canadian forces from their commitments in the Middle East. This isn't the Middle East, and of course the United States made a dog's breakfast out of its withdrawal from Afghanistan about two years ago.  But it's interesting how events tend to dictate what countries do, as opposed to countries opting how events will proceed.

Canada, FWIW, has a pretty large Ukrainian Canadian population, that being people of Ukrainian heritage.  It's estimated to number 1,359,655 people.

February 2, 2023

Israel-Hamas

Israeli aircraft hit Hamas targets in Gaza following a rocket attack.

Russo-Ukrainian War

Careful watchers of the Op Ed page might note that there's been a growing theme in the last couple of weeks of defeatist "Ukraine can never win" type of opinions being published by pundits. Boiled down, the general gist of them is 1) yes the Ukrainians have managed to hold off the Russians so far, but the Russians have an infinite capacity to absorb losses and 2) they're going to ultimately win through sheer attrition and 3) therefore, NATO support is just prolonging the suffering.

Probably all of these commentators have been against NATO support for Ukraine since the onset, for different reasons. Some are likely America Firsters, others highly fiscally conservative, and some probably Russian sympathizers. The message, however, is all the same, and this will keep up for a while in anticipation of the oncoming Russian offensive.

Historically, it might be worth remembering that the "lesson of history" that "Russia always prevails" is not supported much by actual examples.   If we go back a bit, the opposite seems to be the case.

Russia lost the Crimean War, which lead to an unsuccessful effort to modernize the Russian state.  It also lost the Russo-Japanese War.  It also lost against the Germans in World War One, leading to a complete collapse of the Russian government and revolution, replacing the existing regime with a democratic one which was in turn replaced by a Communist one.

It was on the winning side, of course, in World War Two, but its victory in that war has been so heavily mythologized that it became misunderstood.  In reality, the USSR started off as a German ally, taking part of Poland and the Baltic States, but being fought to a standstill by the much smaller nation of Finland.  Its status changed in 1941 when it was attacked by Nazi Germany, but it was not able to arrest German progress without massive American and British aid.  Had the Western Allies chosen to ignore the Soviet Union, which they really could not have, it's not really known what would have occurred.  Lenin bargained away Poland, Belorussia and Ukraine to the Germans in 1917 in order to retain control of Russia itself, and it may well have done the same in World War Two but for Allied assistance.  Germany's land lust was vast, but it never intended to take all of Russia and in fact it never occupied very much of it, most of its success being in the lands just mentioned.  Moreover, the Soviets were able to rely upon the Belorussians and Ukrainians, for the most part, to fight against the Germans.  People the USSR regarded as non-Russian nationalities made up to 45% of the Red Army, with Ukrainians making up over 60% of the Red Army on the Ukrainian Fronts.  Jewish soldiers in the Red Army, regarded as a separate nationality, were more likely to be decorated for combat than Russians.

Looked at that way, the current war is the first time the Russians have fought a war in which their army has been more or less ethnically homogeneous since the Russian Civil War.  Moreover, the actual history of Russian wars is that the Russians can endure a long war and then collapse into revolution.  The Crimean War saw Cossack revolts. The Russo Japanese War led to the 1905 revolution.  World War one lead to the complete collapse of the Russian state.

Ukraine can win, but it has to be given the means to do so, and very soon.  If Ukraine could be adequately armed this month, and that is what it may take, the oncoming Russian spring offensive could end up a disaster.  When Russian armies experience collapse, which they never did during World War Two, it usually leads to a downfall in the Kremlin.  

February 3, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine is reporting that Putin has ordered the Russian forces to  capture Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by March 2023.

The particularly concerning thing about this is that it's very doubtful that new armor will be deployed in Ukraine by the time of the Russian offensive.

Russians have been seeking passports in mass numbers. Russia has suspended issuing them, and now Russians are seeking foreign passports.

China

China has been overflying the United States with a spy balloon.   The US pondered shooting it down, but concluded its intelligence gathering abilities are limited, and it would be more dangerous as a falling object.  

Yesterday it was over Montana.

February 4, 2023

China

A second Chinese spy balloon has been spotted, this one headed for an overflight of South America.

Secretary of State Blinken cancelled an intended visit to China over this.

Frankly, there's no good reason for the US not to have shot this down over southern Canada, if Canada would have allowed for it to happen, or for the Canadians to do it.  Likewise, while it was over Wyoming or Montana, it should have been shot down.  The junk it's carrying would have hit nothing.

Russia

The US is seeking to expel the Wagner Group from Sudan and Libya.

Feb 4, cont.

China v. US.

Perhaps for the first time since World War One, a US aircraft has shot down a balloon.

February 6, 2023

China v. US.

The Administration has announced that it was discovered that the Chinese flew spy balloons over the US during the Trump administration, but apparently they were not detected at the time.  The revelation was dismissed by Trump as "fake disinformation". The Biden Administration offered to brief the Trumpites.

At any rate, the news that the Chinese have been able to pull this off over the past several years undetected is not good news.

Additionally, with the past week or so a U.S. Air Force general has stated that he's fairly certain there will be a war between the United States and China over the defense of Taiwan.  Interestingly this has been a sort of Republican rallying point even though some sections of the GOP are willing to abandon Ukraine.  While perhaps not obvious to everyone, a Ukrainian victory would perhaps serve to delay that, and delay might serve to prevent it.

As for the balloon itself, there is speculation that this was an intentional provaction designed to demonstrate that the US couldn't react, and would do so ineffectively.  If so, it probably partially succeeded in demonstrating that, given as the US was so slow to shoot it down.

February 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Ukraine's president, asking for more arms for the country yesterday, also asked for admission to the European Union.

February 11, 2023

China v. US and Canada

Two more balloons have now been shot down, one over norther Alaska and one over British Columbia.  The US shot them both down, the latter via a Canadian request.

The balloons have not been affirmatively identfied as Chinese, but seeing as China is a 19th Century imperial power and balloons a 19th Century surveillance aircraft, it seems likely.

China has become a full blown menace. Where this is headed seems fairly obvious.

February 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

There are suddenly a lot of voices coming out of Russia suggesting that it won't be able to launch its anticipated spring offensive due, in part, to manpower losses.

Russia has been taking combat losses like crazy the past couple of weeks, and while its made slight gains, they've been very slight and are comiing at a huge cost.

Ukraine has destroyed a Russian  BMPT Terminator in combat. The much vaunted autonomous combat vehicle was overblown to start with and unlikely to amount much, as has been the case with all prior attempts to deploy weapons of this type.

Lithuanian supplied Bofors L70 anti-aircraft guns have arrived in Ukraine.  Ukraine itself is presssing for Western fighter aircraft.

February 12, cont:

And now another object shot down, this one over Lake Huron.

February 13, 2023

China v. US and Canada

The Aerodrome: Why Canada didn't shoot down the "unidentified" ob...:  An excellent thread on NORAD and the strategic considerations that went into it and the modern RCAF: Why didn't Canada shoot down the o...

One of the things he points out in this post is that the F-22, which Canada does not have, is one of the few aircraft capable of performing in the fighter role at such a high altitude.

The Meet the Press interviews on this were interesting.  A Congressman who is up to speed stated that he doesn't think the second and third objects are likely Chinese.  They may very well not be, and its always possible they weren't threats at all.

It's been pointed out ot me by a highly knowledgable person that the reason we may be picking up so many of these now is that NORAD has adjusted its radar screening to pick these up. The Congressman made the same point.  We have traditionally been looking for Soviet or Chinese ICBMs and Soviet aircraft, not slow moving balloons.

Finally, a commentator made the point that we may call these balloons, but they're really drones.

On a goofball level, lots of people are launching speculation on whether they indicate an alien invasion, meaning alien from outspace as opposed to alien from another country.

I also saw somebody quote Noam Chomsky, to the effect that government and elites need to keep people distracted in order to carry out their agenda.  Frankly, I don't know why anyone quotes Chomsky on anything whatsoever, other than linquistics.  Feeling that the government and elites in this country are so coordinated that they have a plan to keep us distracted while they do whatever deeply evil nepharious, and right wing, plot against the working me of the 1930s is crediting everyone with a lot more organization and foresight than they deserve.  Anyhow, that person thought the whole thing was a false flag operation.

Get a grip.

Frank Luke, who won a Congressional Medal of Honor, posthumously, for balloon busing in World War One with his SPAD S.XIII.

Russo Ukrainian War.

The Institute for the Study of War credits Russia with a real information false flag, in the form of media propoganda designed to suggest back in December that they were ready for peace talks, when they were not.  This, the Institute maintains, delayed the supplying of armor to Ukraine.

There's no reason whatsoever to believe at this point that the Russians are aiming for anything else than the complete defeat of Ukraine.

February 14, 2023

Russia v. Moldova

Moldovan coat of arms.

Moldova has revealed a Russian plot, first revealed by Ukraine last week, to destabilize the small country and bring it into the Russian orbit.

Moldova is an independent country because of Russia, but not in the way a person  might at first imagine.  It was part of the Russian Empire after 1812 and then declared independence in 1918, and then joined Romania later that same year. The country is essentially Romanian.  The Soviet Union took the territory back in 1940 which was a principal cause of Romania joining Operation Barbarossa the following year. Following the Axis defeat, the USSR took it back, but it left again after the collapse of the Soviet Union.

That Russia continues to covet it is interesting. This appears to be at least partially in reaction to Moldova's efforts to move closer to the EU in the wake of the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

February 16, 2023

British defense estimates figure that the Russians have potentially committed 97% of their Army to combat in Ukraine and have now sustained so many casualties that they no longer can engage in a sustained offensive.

If this is correct, and its a big if, it would likely mean the anticiapted spring offensive is not coming, and beyond that, the Russians might not be able to mount a sustained defense against a Ukrainian offensive.

February 17, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

Russians have put in excess of 6,000 Ukrainian children through reducation camps.

Marina Yankina, a Russian defense official whose role in the current war was with finance, fell, supposedly, from a 16 story building to her death.

Hmmm. . . . 

China v. US and Canada

The Aerodrome: Failed Balloon Run: It's now known that the U.S. Air Force did attempt to shoot down the Chinese balloon over Montana, using the F-22's cannons as the i...

February 18, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War.

The Wagner Group has sustained 30,000 casualties fighting in Ukraine.

Parts of the Belorussian defense industry are being taken over by Russia.

February 19, 2023

United States v. ISIS

February 20, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Analysts increasingly believe that Russia is in its Spring offensive, but that it has adopted a World War One attrition style strategy where it simply throws men at the Ukrainians knowing that they are expending ammunition, and lives themselves, resisting them.  The strategy isn't to be rapid, but simply cause Ukraine to hemorrhage.

Ukraine is aware of this, which is why it is begging for modern weapons with which to launch its own more mobile offensive.

Russia has committed 97% of its army to combat at its strategy is not without risk.  It's performance has been abysmal and its using up its human resources.

Some, however, believe that the slowness of the Russian advance reflects wartime attrition, and that the Russians are actually deploying per doctrine, but without much armor.

China appears ready to start supplying Russia with weapons.  The US is warning China not to do so.  There's some speculation that China hopes to prolong the war as it does not wish to see Russia fail, and it wants the US to use up its weapons stockpile so that it has nothing with which to aid Taiwan in the (highly likely) event that China attempts to invade Taiwan.

President Biden is in Kyiv.

February 22, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Vladimir Putin suspended the START Treaty regarding nuclear weapons, the irony being that a country whose conventional weapons have been shown to be ineffective, and which is using them up at a prodigious rate, can hardly afford to engage in a nuclear arms race.

Putin did this in an epic length speech on the anniversary of the war he launched on his neighbor.  The speech was telling as he claims that he's not waging a war on the Ukrainians themselves.  This raises the question of to what extent Putin might actually be delusional.

NPR released an excellent edition of its podcast State of Ukraine on the one-year anniversary of the war.

Ukrainian newspapers have broken the news that they have a secret Russian document outlining Russian plans to absorb Byelorussia by 2030.

February 23, 2023

China v. United States and Canada

The Aerodrome: United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph ...:  

United States releases Chinese Balloon photograph taken from U2

 In this photo, you can see the U2's shadow.

Russia v. Moldova

Vladimir Putin renounced his 2012 guarantee of Moldova's territorial integrity.

February 24, 2023

Russia v. Ukraine, Byelorussia and Moldova

The UN passed a resolution calling for Russia to leave Ukraine.

Russian troops dressed in Ukrainian uniforms have been moved near Russia's border with Byelorussia in what appears likely to be staging for a false flag attack on that country, in an effort to expand the war.

Russia also appears to be staging for a false flag operation in Transnistria, the Russian enclave/breakaway region of Moldova.  The area houses one of the world's largest prestaged arms and ammunition stockpiles.

All of this suggests that Russia is set to attempt to expand, not contract, the war.

Prior Related Threads:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023. The Bear and the Trident. The Russo Ukrainian War crosses the calendar year.

Did Ukraine Change your Mind about Russian Tanks? @TheChieftainsHatch

Chieftain Chats Abrams

T72M1 Switchology and Fire Control System

Wars and Rumors of War, 2023. The Bear and the Trident. The Russo Ukrainian War crosses the calendar year.

South Korean M48s.  There are large numbers of these and M60s that are upgradable to a state sufficiently advanced to take on the Russian armor.  The Ukrainians should be given them.  I'm not the only one to suggest this.

A new year, a new thread, for new and old wars and rumors of war.

I posted the photograph above from 1986 to make a point, one that I was making I thought alone for a while, but now I've seen elsewhere.

The US has vast quantifies of mid Cold War era material that is still useful and could still go overseas to aid Ukraine.  This equipment was built to fight the Soviets, just as the junky stuff the Russians use was built to fight us.  It may not be our current standard, but it's there and if we're not going to use it now, we probably never will, unless we fear that a ground war with China is imminent and will be so bad, we'll need this stuff.

Having said that, by this point, Ukraine is well on its way toward having much more modern equipment, both in the form of latest generation Russian captured equipment, and material that NATO has supplied.

If Ukraine is going to win this war, in my view, at this point, it needs to launch a successful winter campaign and that's going to be equipment consuming.  Moreover, in order to get Russia to the negotiating table, at this point, I think they'll need to recapture all of their lost territory and enter Russia's Rostov Oblast and advance to the Don.

January 1, 2023.

Russo-Ukrainian War

Vladimir Putin's New Year's address indicated no sign of a willingness to negotiate with Ukraine, while President Zelenskyy's praised his people for their stalwart defense of their country.  There is no reason to believe that the war will end soon, or that Russia is ready to give up in spite of its battlefield defeats.  Indeed, irrespective of them, it has not exhausted its resources and, with no real democratic input into the war, Putin can afford to keep it running.

Ukraine can afford to keep it running as well, as long as the West remains in its corner.  With the U.S. Congress turning over and Republicans taking control of the House, there's some reason to believe that things will get more difficult for Ukraine.  In the Senate, Mitch McConnell has been a strong backer of Ukraine.  Ukraine lost a strong backer in Liz Cheney, and the new crop of Republicans includes many of the Trumpist isolationist strain who set the US on the road to retreat in Afghanistan.  So far, self-declared Republican Kevin McCarthy has pledged to keep backing Ukraine, but to keep a more careful eye on the assets going there, showing McCarthy's knack for spitting the baby, maybe.  For that matter, McCarthy may not be ascending to the lofty heights he's been aiming for.

Republicans barely control the House, of course, and not all Republicans are isolationist or Trumpists.

January 5, 2023.

Ukraine is claiming that Russia has sustained 10,000 combat deaths in the last two weeks, a remarkable figure if true.

Russia has deployed new ship launched missiles to the Atlantic.

Putin has declared a ceasefire for Orthodox Christmas. Orthodox Christmas is on January 7.  Interestingly, in Ukraine, the country generally celebrates Christmas on the Gregorian Calendar, which of course has already occurred, with the Orthodox celebrating the religious holiday on the Julian Calendar, which this year is on January 7.  The Russian ceasefire declaration is interesting in that one of the declared purposes of the Russian invasion was to defend Orthodoxy, and the dual nature of the Ukrainian celebration somewhat demonstrates its drift to the West.  Of course, Catholic Ukrainians already celebrate the religious and civil holiday on the same day.

January 6, 2023

Kyiv rejected Putin's proposal for a truce over Orthodox Christmas.

France is sending AMX-10s to Ukraine.  Contrary to the way this tends to be reported, they are not tanks, but very heavy armored cars.  They are also a fully modern weapon, so their provision as an armored fighting vehicle is significant.

January 8, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The war has oddly begun to resemble the First World War in some ways, with localized actions that measure success in feet and yards, rather than miles.

The Russians, deploying the mercenary Wagner Group, have been struggling to take Bakhmut which some Ukrainian sources reported as surrounded yesterday.  ISW, which is highly reliable, reports that it is not.  Indeed, they reported the claim as "bizarre".

Iran

While continuing to suffer a state of near internal insurrection, Iran continues to project its power outwards.  Here's an interesting development:

Iran Converting Two Panamax Container Ships to “Drone Carriers”

January 9, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians claimed to hit and cause casualties on a Ukrainian training facility yesterday, in retaliation for the Ukrainian hit of a building used by Russians that killed at least 89 Russian soldiers.

This is an example of the bizarrely petulant and childish attitude that the Russians have had throughout this war, in which they complain about actions taken by their enemy that are well within the law of war.  Explaining this is difficult.

January 10, 2023

Fierce fighting is occurring between Ukrainian forces and Wagner mercenaries near Soledar and Bakhmut. Wagner is promoting their role in this, but while they are in fact fighting well, for very limited objectives, they're taking massive casualties.

January 12, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians are engaging in high level command shakeups.

There is speculation that shakeups are occurring as Putin is dissatisfied with results, as he should be, but is doubling down on his view that Ukraine can be taken by force. If this is correct, and there's good reason to believe that it is, the war is nowhere near close to being concluded and a major Russian spring offensive will be attempted.

There's also speculation that a serious struggle is going on inside Russian circles over the role of the Wagner group, which is pushing, much like the SS did during World War Two, to achieve official status as an "elite" Russian unit, rather than a mercenary group.    Not surprisingly, the Russian army doesn't like this possibility, while the Wagner Group is angling for it, in part by popularizing its ongoing bloody operations.

Regarding that, those operations appear to explain the recruiting from jails done by the mercenary organization earlier. These troops are being used like German and Soviet penal formations were in World War Two, with their purpose to sap enemy strength at the likely cost of their own lives.  Ukrainians noted earlier their high death rate and, among those captured, how many had serious diseases such as AIDS.  Their combat survivability likely is irrelevant to the Russians, as they're using up Ukrainian munitions.  This may be true to some degree of hastily deployed conscripts as well, although the Russians have to be more careful about them.

Mali

Fourteen Malian soldiers were killed and 11 wounded in two attacks in regions where Al-Qaeda aligned forces are operative.

January 13, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians took Soledar yesterday.

Update:

Coat of arms for Soledar

How big of a city is that?

Well, it had a population of about 10,000 before the war.  It's known for its former salt mine, which was apparently large, and there's some fear that the mine could be of use for infiltration.  Chances are that the mine is mined.

January 15, 2022

Russo Ukrainian War

By Photo: Cpl Russ Nolan RLC/MOD, OGL v1.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=26907562

The UK will be supplying Challenger 2 tanks, a fully modern western, third generation, main battle tank, to Ukraine.

The initial number is only 12, which isn't enough to do anything with, but presumably it will end up being more than that.  Ukraine has been asking for modern Western tanks for months.

Russian forces staged in Belarus rocketed targets in Kyiv and Kyiv Oblast and then later launched sea-based Kalibr, and Kh-59 guided air missiles.

I wasn't aware that Belarus was allowing its territory to be used in this fashion.  This presents an added complication for Ukraine as while it now hits Russian targets in Russia, Russia is also using Belorussian territory for missile attacks.

January 16, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

It's now widely expected that Russia will be launching a new large-scale conventional offensive.

This means that a type of race is now on, with the obvious one being can the Western nations sufficiently arm and train Ukraine to stave off a new Russian offensive which it must be presumed will be very large and much less inept than the original one, which Russia launched believing that its efforts couldn't fail.

Russia can't afford to lose the next one.

The second race, maybe, might be for Ukraine to launch an offensive first.  If Russia has to commit to the defense before it can launch an offensive, it might hold that offensive off and cause an already damaged Putin administration more trouble.

January 19, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

Germany, having moved up, again, to the brink of allowing nations with surplus Leopard 2 tanks, or making use of its own surplus, has pulled back again.

Time and time again, Germany has indicated that it was considering or about to provide or allow Leopard 2s to go to Ukraine, only to back out.  This seems to have occurred again, as it's now indicating that it will provide Leopard 2s if the US provides M1 Abrams tanks.

There is a certain logic to this, but it's also done knowing that the US is unlikely to provide Abrams tanks to Ukraine.  Symbolically, it's probably a bridge too far for the US as the Abrams is generally regarded as the most advanced tank in the world and one that was designed to take on and defeat Soviet armor in a largescale war.  In other worlds, it comes a bit too close to the US nearly being in the war itself, and Germany knows this.

Having said this, Leopard 2s were built for the same purpose.  And so were Challenger 2s, the latter of which is probably every bit as good as the Abrams.

The Leopard 2 isn't, which presents its own problems.  There's been some speculation that Germany hasn't provided the tank as it will show that Germany's think skinned armor thesis which influenced German tank designs post World War Two was wrong, because it was wrong.  In combat with Russian tanks it may well prove to be inferior, in least in terms of crew protection.  

This does bring up, again, the M60s (and maybe M48s).  The last variant of the M60 was a very modern tanks and it would be relatively easy to upgrade the massive number of M60s and supply them to Ukraine.  A counter proposal could be made to supply something like 500 M60s if the Germans spring the Leopard 2s.  Of course, this isn't what Ukraine is seeking, as they want the most modern variant of main battle tank.

January 21, 2023

Russia has installed air defense systems in Moscow.

Ukraine is not going to attack Moscow, so the question is whether this is a species of extreme cautiousness, paranoia, or theater.

January 23, 2023

Leopard 2 tank.

Under a tremendous amount of pressure, Germany has indicated it will not preclude Poland from shipping Leopard 2s to Ukraine.

Over the weekend a member of Congress urged the U.S. to supply M1 Abrams to Ukraine, stating that modern armor would be necessary to take on an anticipated Russian offensive this winter. This may indicate a move towards supplying Ukraine with M1s.

M1 Abrams.

January 24, 2023

From the New York Times:

The U.S. plans to send M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine, officials said, a big step in arming Kyiv in its efforts to seize back territory from Russia.

Tuesday, January 24, 2023 5:40 PM ET

The White House is expected to announce a decision as early as Wednesday, said the officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity. One official said the number of Abrams tanks could be between 30 and 50.

Janaury 25, 2023

The dam appears to have broken and now Germany will be sending Leopard 2s to Ukraine.  Poland will follow.

Western analysits attribute the slow provision of heavy weapons to Ukraine as a major factor that is keeping Ukraine from defeating Russia.

We seem to have reached a new point in the war.  Now, that has changed.

January 26, 2023

Thirty one.

That's the number of M1 Abrams tanks that the U.S. promised to Ukraine.  Only around 14 Leopard 2s are going to be sent by Germany, and 80 by other European allies.  The British are sending 12 Challengers.

Ukraine asked for 300 modern main battle tanks.

A combined total of a little under 140 won't cut it, particularly of mixed models, and the M1s won't be delivered for months, most likely well after the anticipated Russian spring offensive.

Taiwan is equipped with M60A3 tanks and is opting to upgrade them.

We have thousands of idle M60s that can upgraded. We could likely provide over 300 M60A3s within weeks, some within days.

Send the M60s.

There are reports that the Wagner Group may take punitive action against its own members for retreating in battle, with at least one report that they castrated a soldier for doing so.

January 26, 2023, cont

The US indicated today that it does not have the spare inventory to send M1A2 from its own stocks, so apparently the Ukrainian ones will be new General Dynamics production.

Ukraine may not have the time to spare.

We should; 1) take 50 out of our own stocks. We're not going to be going to war, no matter how cautious we may feel we need to be, and 2) we should send 500 M60s.

The M60s could be there soon.

January 27, 2023

Somalia

Al Shabaab achieved a major tactical victory in central Somalia, taking a base used by US-trained special forces. 

Also in the country, U.S. Special forces killed ISIL leader Bilal al Sudani in a raid.

January 27, 2023, cont.

Russo Ukrainian War

In a statement that can only charitably be referred to as bizarre, former President Donald Trump tweeted, or whatever it is called on "Truth Social" that if he were President he could end the war in Ukraine in 24 hours. A Russian spokesman, taking the position that he could "instruct" Kyiv on what to do, endorsed the statement. 

I think it can be safely assumed that Trump would not have intervened to save Ukraine, and would not now.  He clearly cannot "instruct" it to do anything.

Statements like this should cause people to wonder about the level of narcissism the former President displays and cannot help, at least in some quarters, cause speculation on why Trump is so in love with Putin.  It is, truly, bizarre.

January 29, 2023

Russo Ukrainian War

The Russians reported took 5,000 combat deaths last week.

At this point, it appears that they're relieving the Wagner Group, which has been engaged at Bakhmut in high casualty attacks.  Russian airborne is apparently replacing the mercenary troops.

Ukrainian sources report that 300 Wagner Group wounded were taken to a hospital in Yuvlineyvy but they were refused treatment due to having AIDs, syphilis, tuberculosis and pneumonia.    Of the 50,000 Wagner recruits from prisons, only 10,000 now remain, the rest having been killed, wounded or deserted.  Just a couple of weeks ago there was serious speculation that the Wagner Group would supplant the Army in some fashion, much like the SA tried to do with the pre-war German Heer, but now it appears it's basically being pulled from combat, although it may have served its purpose by being a sponge for Ukrainian munitions.

The Russians have been making small gains.

Ukraine has asked for long range missiles, which would clearly express an intent to hit targets inside of Russia.

North Korea declared the US promise to deliver M1 Abrams tanks to Ukraine an "unethical crime", which begs the question of what an "ethical" crime would be.

January 29, cont:

Iran

Iranian drone manufacturing facilities were hit. . . by drones.

Nobody has taken responsibility but it seems certain they were Israel carried out the attacks.  Iran is claiming there was no damage which means there was damage.

Ukraine did a little gloating over this, which is merited.

January 31, 2023

Pakistan

A sucide bombing killeed 59 people, mostly police officers, in Peshwar.  It was not immediately apparent who was responsible. The Taliban claimed responsiblity at first, and then denied responsibility.

Israel-Iran

Israel hit Iranian backed militia targets in Syria on January 29 and 30 in air strikes.

Last Prior Edition:

Wars and Rumors of War, 2022. The Russo Ukrainian War Edition, Part Nine. Rout

Bradley A2 Switchology and Fire Control System

M60A3 TTS Switchology, and a little M1A2.

Abrams Switchology and Fire Control System

Saturday, August 29, 1942. The appearance of the Tiger 1.

The Panzerkampfwagen VI, famously known as the Tiger, or in this instance the Tiger I tank, made its battlefield appearance outside of Leningrad.  The Soviets were making a determined effort to relieve the city.

Captured Tiger 1 in U.S. possession.

The Tiger was a feared German weapon, and justifiably so.  Classified as a heavy tank, with much more armor than previous German tanks, and armed with an 88 mm main gun, it can be regarded as one of the first tanks, along with the T34, that pointed the way towards the Main Battle Tank of the post-war period, although that concept was still years away.  Indeed, it might be better able to claim the position of having essentially occupied that role prior to any other tank.

1,347 were made during the war.  Mechanically complicated due to over engineering, it had a high breakdown rate.  It was so feared by the Western Allies that troops routinely reported German tanks to be Tigers, no matter what they actually were.

On the same day the Soviet Air Force bombed Berlin in a nighttime raid using 100 Petlyakov Pe-8, Ilyshin II-4 and Yermolayev Yer 2 bombers.  A small party of Pe-8s bombed Königsberg.

The first class of officers for the Women's Army Auxiliary Corps graduated.

The Saturday Evening Post featured P38 Lightenings on its cover.

I failed to note the August 1, 1942, cover, which featured a cover illustration of a Marine in the newly adopted herringbone tweed cotton dungarees. The Marine in question is wearing the Marine's khaki summer shirt underneath his hbt jacket, and it was in fact a jacket.  It was rarely worn that way, however, typically being worn as simply a shirt.  He's also wearing the M1 helmet and carrying a M1903 Springfield, all of which was typical gear at this point in the war and all of which reflected the appearance of the average Marine going into Guadalcanal.

Worth noting, however, is that at this point the hbt uniform was so new the Marines only issued a single set to its men.  Marines landing at Guadalcanal had only one, that is, set of hbt dungarees.

The Red Cross announced that the Japanese had refused the free passage of ships carrying food and medicine to American POWs.

Friday, August 4, 1922. Parabellum

An ROTC contingent was in camp, receiving training from the U.S. Army.  The tanks in these photographs were the World War One Renault pattern, one of the better tanks of the First World War.

While I'm not completely certain, I think the instructor depicted above is actually wearing hearing protection while his student shoots a Browning machine gun.  Of interest, in spite of the lessons of the Great War, none of the men in these photographs, and they're all men, are wearing helmets.

On the same day, a photographer took photos of the Coast Guard Cutter Seneca.

In an ongoing war, the Irish Free State landed 1,500 troops at three ports in County Kerry to take the Munster region from the Irish Republican Army.  The IRA was pretty rapidly losing ground in the conventional fight.

At 6:25 p.m. Eastern Time, during the internment of Alexander Graham Bell, all telephone service in the United States was suspended for one minute.

The Aliens Decree was issued by the Bolshevik government of the Belorussian Soviet Socialist Republic basically allowing everyone over 14 to become Soviet Citizens, and making anyone below that age Soviet Citizens, save for those who had opposed the Soviets or who failed to apply by the end of the  year.

Inside the Chieftain's Hatch: M26 "Pershing" Part 1

Leopards for Ukraine: Scrap or Wunderwaffe?

Personally, I feel Leopards 1s are better than any Russian tank, but not as good as the M48 or M60.

Be careful drawing conclusions from the Ukraine combat videos

Poster Saturday. Russo Ukrainian War Poster Art

Wars, traditionally, have made for graphic posters.  However, since 1945, poster art in the west has dramatically declined in quality and importance.

In the East it did not, probably reflecting the lack of visual information systems, television in particular, and it remained strong into the 1970s.  

The Russo Ukrainian War seems to be a reflection of this heritage.  Democratic Ukraine has been producing some really stunning graphic poster art, of which this example is the most graphic I've seen, although last week's was as well.  It's also produced a lot of ad hoc poster art, as in of the handbill type, which we'll also be running.

For those less familiar with the visual elements depicted here, the khaki colored boot is a Ukrainian one.  The vampire teeth skull wears a Russian camouflaged tankers helmet, bedecked with the Russian tricolor flag, and the ribbon for the Cross of St. George, the Russian Federation's highest military honor.

Classic WW2 Movies and Their Weird Tanks - Commentated

Tuesday November 18, 1941. German setbacks.

Yesterday the Finn's stopped advancing on Murmansk and the Germans stopped along with them, bringing to an effective end the German advance in the Arctic with the result that Murmansk would remain open to the Allies for the rest of the war.

On this day, the British launched Operation Crusader, a new offensive in the desert designed to relief the siege of Tobruk.

British tank in this operation passing a burning German one.  The British tank is, coincidentally, a "Crusader".

The attack demonstrated that the British were far from finished in the desert.

The British did conclude Operation Flipper on this day as well, which was not a success.

Mexico broke off diplomatic relations with  Bulgaria, Hungary and Romania, giving a sign of the direction it would head in should the United States go to war. The sign had not been obvious, and it was still unclear. Mexico's PRI ruling party engaged in single state rule of the country, and accordingly it had a diversity of radical views within it, including strongly Communistic elements, but also some fascistic elements.  As a result, American defense planning included guarding the southern US border from Mexican incursions in case of it leaning towards the Axis.

Talks continued between the United States and the Japanese diplomatic mission in Washington, with the Japanese mission meeting with the Secretary of State, who issued this report:

After some preliminary remarks the Secretary took up the question of Japan's relations with the Axis. He pointed out that the public would place their own interpretation upon the implications of a situation wherein on the one hand Japan had an agreement with us and on the other was in an alliance with the Axis powers. He said that our people do not trust Hitler and furthermore we feel that it would be inevitable that Hitler would eventually, if he was successful, get around to the Far East and double-cross Japan. The Secretary cited the instance when Germany, after having concluded an 'anti-Comintern pact with Japan had surprised Japan later on by entering into a non-aggression pact with Russia and finally went back on the non-aggression pact by attacking Russia. The Secretary said that he presumed Japan did not know in advance what Germany's intentions were any more than we did. The Secretary expressed great doubt that any agreement into which we entered with Japan while Japan at the same time had an alliance with Hitler would carry the confidence of our people and he emphasized that we would have to have a clear-cut agreement making self-evident our peaceful purpose, for otherwise there would be a redoubled effort by all nations to strengthen their armaments. He pointed out that we are coming out of the Philippines in 1946 and that we are now bringing our marines out of China and in this way we are trying to make a contribution to the establishment of a peaceful world based on law and order. He said that this is what we want to work out with Japan; that we had nothing to offer in the may of bargaining except our friendship. Our commercial program was one, he said, calling for a maximum production and distribution of goods. The Secretary pointed out also that we are even now engaged in efforts to induce the British Empire to reduce its Empire preferences. w He said that what we desire is to put our people back to work in a way that can never be accomplished through permitting armies to overrun countries. The Secretary observed that many Japanese spokesmen had spoken of Japan's desire to have a controlling influence in Eastern Asia, but the only kind of controlling influence which was worth anything was one that could not be achieved or maintained by the sword.

He dwelt briefly upon what we have accomplished in South America through our peaceful policies and through renouncing the employment. of gunboats and armed forces. The Secretary made it clear that we recognized that under present emergency conditions we cannot carry out to perfection our commercial policy which must be modified to meet war conditions, but we can at least establish the. principles. The Secretary said, going back to the situation with regard to Japan's relations with the Axis, that a difficult situation was created thereby as far as our public was concerned-as, for example, when telegrams of congratulations were sent to Hitler by Japanese leaders when he commits some atrocity.

The Japanese Ambassador observed that the United States and Russia were not pursuing parallel courses and yet we are aligned with Russia at the present time. He also said he appreciated very well the relations we had developed with South America but that, although Japan would like to imitate us, Japan was not in a position to be so magnanimous-as, for example, in the mater of extending substantial lend lease aid to other countries. . . . The Secretary then added that he frankly did not know whether anything could be done in the matter of reaching a satisfactory agreement with Japan; that we can go so far but rather than go beyond a certain point it would be better for us to stand and take the consequences. The Ambassador then said that Japan is now hard?pressed and that the Secretary was well aware of how desirous Japan was to reach some agreement with the United States.

Mr. Kurusu said that he had served five years as Director of the Commercial Bureau of the Japanese Foreign Office and that he was familiar with the developments in Japan's commercial policy. He said that the situation with respect to the Empire preferences was one of the factors which had influenced Japan to go into the Axis camp. He said that the United States was an economically powerful country and that the United States was, therefore, in a much better position than was Japan to enter into commercial bargaining. Furthermore, Japan was much more dependent than was the United States upon foreign trade. He felt that what the two Governments should now do would be to achieve something to tide over the present abnormal situation.. He referred, for example, to the exchange control situation which had been developed in Japanese-occupied China and expressed the view that that situation could not be done away with in a short time. He said that perhaps after the war was over it might be possible to adopt a more liberal policy but that he was unable to promise anything on the part of his Government. The Secretary asked whether Japan could not now agree in principle on commercial policy. Mr. Kurusu made no direct reply but went on to say that in the early years of American intercourse in the Far East our main interest was in commerce and not religious and cultural activities; that we had pursued a course of idealism, but with American occupation of the Philippines the situation changed somewhat and the United States tied itself in with the European concert of nations.

Turning to the question of the Tripartite Pact, Mr. Kurusu said that he could not say that Japan would abrogate the Tripartite Pact but that Japan might do something which would "outshine" the Tripartite Pact.

The Secretary pointed out that unless peacefully minded nations now start their program of reconstruction it will be impossible to get such a program started later on because the selfish elements would get control of the situation and prevent the materialization of a liberal policy. Therefore, he said it was necessary to get the fundamental principles established, so that we might begin to enable the peaceful forces, which were now demoralized, to assert a leadership. Unless we pursue such a course, the Secretary noted, we shall not be able to obtain the confidence of peacefully minded people when the time for putting into effect a reconstruction program arrives. Mr. Kurusu asked whether the Secretary had a concrete formula for dealing with Japan's relations with the Axis alliance. The Secretary made it clear that this was a matter for Japan to work out. He said that if we could get a peaceful program firmly established, Hitler ought to be asked not to embarrass us too much. He asked whether Japan could not work it out in some way which would be convincing to the American people. He said that if it goes the wrong way every peaceful nation will redouble its defensive efforts. The Secretary emphasized again that the public would be confused in regard to a survival of a relationship between Japan and the Axis while Japan had an agreement with the United States.

The Ambassador asked whether it was not important now to make some understanding to save the situation. The Secretary said he agreed but that he felt that the Tripartite Pact was inconsistent with the establishment of an understanding.

Mr. Kurusu asked what could the Secretary suggest. The Secretary said that if we mix the Tripartite Pact with an agreement with the United States it will not be possible to get many people to follow us. The Secretary said that the question arises whether Japanese statesmen desire to follow entirely peaceful courses with China or whether they desire to face two ways. The Secretary went on to say that if the Japanese should back away from adopting a clear?cut position with regard to commercial policy, with regard to a course in China consistent with peaceful principles and with regard to Japanese relations to the European war this would leave us in an indefensible position in regard to the proposed agreement. We would have to say that the Japanese Government is unable to get its politicians into line.

The Ambassador repeated that the situation in Japan was very pressing and that it was important to arrest a further deterioration of the relations between the two countries. He suggested that if this situation could now be checked an atmosphere would develop when it would be possible to move in the direction of the courses which this Government advocated. He pointed out that big ships cannot turn around too quickly, that they have to be eased around slowly and gradually.

The Secretary replied that if we should sit down and write an agreement permeated with the doctrine of force it would be, found that each country would be entirely distrustful and would be piling up armaments, as countries cannot promote peace so long as they are tied in in any way with Hitler.

Mr. Kurusu pointed out that a comprehensive solution cannot be worked out immediately, that he could make no promises. He said that our freezing regulations had caused impatience in Japan and a feeling that Japan had to fight while it still could. If we could come to some settlement now, he said, it would promote an atmosphere which would be conducive to discussing fundamentals. The Secretary asked if he did not think that something could be worked out on the Tripartite Pact. The Ambassador said that he desired to emphasize that Japan would not be a cat's-paw for Germany, that Japan's purpose in entering into the Tripartite alliance was to use it for Japan's own purposes, that Japan entered the Tripartite Pact because Japan felt isolated. The Secretary observed that it would be difficult to get public opinion in this country to understand the situation as Mr. Kurusu had described it.

He then asked what the Ambassador had in mind in regard to the Chinese situation and whether the Japanese stood for no annexations, no indemnities, respect. for China's sovereignty, territorial integrity and the principle of equality. The Ambassador replied in the affirmative.

The Secretary then said that while he had made this point already clear to the Ambassador he wished to make it clear also to Mr. Kurusu, that whereas the Japanese Government desired to consider our talks negotiations rather than exploratory conversations, the Secretary felt that without having first reached a real basis for negotiations, he was not in a position to go to the British or the Chinese or the other governments involved, as these governments had a rightful interest in these problems. Mr. Kurusu tried to get the Secretary to specify in just which problems each of the respective governments were interested but the Secretary said that he had not yet, for manifest reasons, discussed these problems with these other governments and anything that he might say would be just an assumption on his part. Mr. Kurusu then said that under such circumstances United States-Japanese relations would be at the mercy of Great Britain and China. The Secretary replied that he believed and must repeat that we must have something substantial in the way of a basis for an agreement to take to these governments for otherwise there would be no point in talking to them. Mr. Kurusu said that the situation was so pressing that it might get beyond our control. The Secretary agreed that, that was true but he pointed out that the fact that Japan's leaders keep announcing programs based upon force adds to our difficulties. He said he would like to leave the Hitler situation to the Japanese Government for consideration.

Turning to the China situation the Secretary asked how many soldiers the Japanese wanted to retain in China. The Ambassador replied that possibly 90 per cent would be withdrawn. The Secretary asked how long the Japanese intended to keep that remaining 10 per cent in China. The Ambassador did not reply directly to this but he invited attention to the fact that under the existing Boxer Protocol Japan was permitted to retain troops in the Peiping and Tientsin area. The Secretary pointed out that the question of the Japanese troops in China was one in which there were many elements of trouble. American interests even had suffered severely from the actions of the Japanese forces and we had a long list of such in stances. The Secretary made mention of the great patience this Government had exercised in the presence of this situation. He said the situation was one in which the extremists seemed to be looking for trouble and he said that it was up to the Japanese Government to make an extra effort to take the situation by the collar. He said also that the United States and Japan had trusted each other in the past, that the present situation was one of Japan's own making and it was up to the Japanese Government to find some way of getting itself out of the difficulty in which it had placed itself. The Secretary went on to say that the situation was now exceptionally advantageous for Japan to put her factories to work in producing goods which are needed by peaceful countries if only the Japanese people could get war and invasion out of mind.

The Ambassador said that our conversations had been protracted and if the American Government could only give the Japanese some hope with regard to the situation it might be helpful. He added that our country was great and strong. The Secretary replied that our Government has not made any threats and he has exercised his influence throughout to deprecate bellicose utterances in this country. He added that the Japanese armed forces in China do not appear to realize whose territory they are in and. that the people in this country say that Hitler proposes to take charge of one-half of the world and Japan proposes to take charge of the other half and if they should succeed what would there be left for the United States? Mr. Kurusu suggested, that Japan would have to move gradually in China, that one step right lead to another and that what was important now was to do something to enable Japan to change its course. The Secretary asked what was in Mr. Kurusu's mind. In reply to a suggestion that it was felt in Japanese circles that we have been responsible for delay the Secretary pointed out that we could more rightly accuse the Japanese of delays, that he had met with the Japanese Ambassador promptly every time the latter had asked for a meeting and had discussed matters fully with him. The Secretary added that when Japan's movement into Indo-china in July took place this had caused an interruption of our conversations and it was then that the Secretary could no longer defend the continued shipments of petroleum products to Japan, especially as for the past year he had been under severe criticism in this country for not having cut off those shipments. Mr. Kurusu asked whether we wanted the status quo ante to be restored or what we expected Japan to do. The Secretary replied that if the Japanese could not do anything now on those three points?getting troops out of China, commercial policy and the Tripartite agreement-he could only leave to Japan what Japan could do. The Secretary said that it is our desire to see Japan help furnish a world leadership for a peaceful program and that he felt that Japan's long-swing interests were the same as our interests. The Ambassador said that he realized that our Government was suspicious of the Japanese Government but he wished to assure us that Japan wanted to settle the China affair notwithstanding the fact that Japan desired to keep a few troops in China for the time being. The Secretary then asked again what the Japanese had in mind. Mr. Kurusu said that it was Japan's intention to withdraw Japanese troops from French Indochina as soon as a just Pacific settlement should be reached and he pointed out that the Japanese Government took the Burma Road situation very seriously. The Secretary asked, if there should be a relaxation of freezing, to what extent would that enable Japan to adopt peaceful policies. He explained that what he had in mind was to enable the peaceful leaders in Japan to get control of the situation in Japan and to assert their influence. The Ambassador said that our position was unyielding and that it was Japan's unyielding attitude toward Chiang Kai-shek which had stiffened Chinese resistance against Japan. He asked whether there was any hope of a solution-some small beginning toward the realization of our high ideals. The Secretary replied that if we do not work out an agreement that the public trusts the arming of nations will go on; that the Japanese Government has a responsibility in the matter as it has created the conditions we are trying to deal with. The Ambassador then suggested the possibility of going back to the status which existed before the date in July when, following the Japanese move into southern French Indochina, our freezing measures were put into effect. The Secretary said that if we should make some modifications in our embargo on the strength of a step by Japan such as the Ambassador had mentioned we do not know whether the troops which have been withdrawn from French Indochina will be diverted to some equally objectionable movement elsewhere. The Ambassador said that what he had in mind was simply some move toward arresting the dangerous trend in our relations. The Secretary said that it would be difficult for him to get this Government to go a long way in removing the embargo unless this Government believed that Japan was definitely started on a peaceful course and had renounced purposes of conquest. The Ambassador said that the Japanese were tired of fighting China and that Japan would go as far as it could along a first step. The Secretary said that he would consult with the British and the Dutch to see what their attitude would be toward the suggestion offered by the Japanese Ambassador. In reply to a question by the Secretary the Ambassador replied that the Japanese Government. was still studying the questions of commercial policy involved in our proposal of November 15. He said he assumed that what we had in mind was a program for dealing with the situation after the war. The Secretary replied in the affirmative, so far as the full operation of a sound program is concerned, but added that it should now be agreed upon as to principles.

When asked by the Secretary as to when the Ambassador would like to confer with us again the Ambassador said that he would get in touch with his Government and would communicate to the Secretary through Mr. Ballantine.